WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, except that the other candidate was a wolf. So we don't really know what the wolves are thinking. I would think if two wolves were up, the wolves would act to protect the cunning (especially if already scanned), and might encourage the brutal wolf to fall on the sword and take out a villager.

If what hoops is suggesting is true, we know who the cunning is and he wasn't a candidate last night. We know JAG was a vanilla wolf. If mckerney is the third wolf, he would have been the brutal, and it doesn't make sense that the wolves would move a two wolf vote toward JAG, the vanilla wolf, over mckerney, the hypothetical brutal.

So if hoops is right, I suspect mckerney is indeed a villager.

So am I reading between the lines right, he thinks the cunning has been scanned?

[hoopsguy]

There is that vote log, and there was also being there as last night was sorting itself out. The wolves wanted mckerney lynched, and I don't see any way that they wanted to give up the brutal in that position instead of a "normal" wolf. A day later, maybe, but not last night. Last night they wanted to off a villager and then dictate to us with 3 wolves (including brutal) among 8 players today.

I won't be voting mckerney today and I won't be voting him tomorrow on the off chance that we are both around.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

So am I reading between the lines right, he thinks the cunning has been scanned?

Correct, that's his theory, and considering our suspicions, it kinda meshes with things. Looking at yesterday's vote history suggests this as well.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

So am I reading between the lines right, he thinks the cunning has been scanned?

I think the chances are pretty good, cougar. The wolf kills have been pretty by the numbers: seer, bodyguard, cleared players.

Last night, they didn't take a cleared player. They took a player who had made strong villager plays in the thread yesterday but was not seer scanned like GE.

So I'm wondering why they deviated from their pattern.

[Autumn]

I think we have to assume Mckerney's good. JAG certainly seemed to be holding on to his vote all day, presumably to vote whereever he needed to, to get out of trouble. So I think his vote on McK helps clear McK. JAG could have voted Pass there.

Which doesn't help Pass out.

[Chief Rum]

I can see what you're saying re: the brutal, hoops, but I really think if it comes to a choice between two wolves, the wolves will always push the brutal to use that extra kill as soon as possible. One less villager means one less vote to combat, which at end game might be more important than having one more face to hide behind.

In any case, I am with you. I am not looking to vote mckerney anytime soon.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

1438 - Autumn votes mckerney 1-0
1508 - PF votes NTN 1-1 mck/NTN
1516 - Hoops votes Pass 1-1-1 mck/NTN/Pass
1547 - Autumn unvotes mckerney 1-1 NTN/Pass
1570 - Autumn votes JAG 1-1-1 NTN/Pass/JAG
1585 - Hoops unvotes Pass, votes JAG 2-1 JAG over NTN
1591 - NTN votes JAG 3-1 JAG over NTN
1594 - Chief votes mckerney 3-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck
1599 - Cougar votes Pass 3-1-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck/Pass
1606 - GE votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1618 - NTN unvotes JAG, votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1632 - mck votes Pass 3-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1634 - JAG votes mckerney 4-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1640 - mck unvotes Pass, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1666 - NTN unvotes mck, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1678 - GE unvotes mck, votes JAG 5-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass

I want to bump this up to the current page. NTN puts JAG up 3-1 over himself early on. A self defense vote, but presumably he could have voted someone else that early and set up another candidate if he was a wolf. Chief and Cougar then add new candidates, rather than vote NTN or JAG. Perhaps of interest. GE chooses Mckerney on his vote over Pass or NTN or JAG.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I want to bump this up to the current page. NTN puts JAG up 3-1 over himself early on. A self defense vote, but presumably he could have voted someone else that early and set up another candidate if he was a wolf. Chief and Cougar then add new candidates, rather than vote NTN or JAG. Perhaps of interest. GE chooses Mckerney on his vote over Pass or NTN or JAG.

One thing to note on GE's vote is that it happens 4 minutes after I talk about wanting to vote for mckerney still.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, but if NTN doesn't move late do you still think GE moves behind him?

I give NTN much more credit for the success we had last night than I do GE at this point. Not a "free pass" level of trust, but it would take some work to talk me into voting for him.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Correct, that's his theory, and considering our suspicions, it kinda meshes with things. Looking at yesterday's vote history suggests this as well.

Ok, that makes some sense. Thanks.

[ntndeacon]

Vote Pass

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yep, but if NTN doesn't move late do you still think GE moves behind him?

I give NTN much more credit for the success we had last night than I do GE at this point. Not a "free pass" level of trust, but it would take some work to talk me into voting for him.

It's about time I got some peeps on my side on ntn. IMO, he has proven it well before this. FYI, GE has been gunning for NTN all game, if you recall.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Vote Pass

Do we assume the theory and go after the mysterious last brutal wolf, or do we check the theory today?

I lean toward the latter.

[ntndeacon]

Hey if we want to go after the cunning, I am down with that. we need to decide quickly though as I won't be available to change after 3:20 or so as I head to hopefully take my friends money

[Chief Rum]

Well, let's test it. Your vote is on Pass. I'll put mine on GE. We'll see what people want to do.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[mckerney]

I had wanted to vote for him a few days ago, I have no problem doing it now with others on board.

Vote Golden Eagle

[GoldenEagle]

Do you guys really want to bark up this tree? You had the seer clear me to a known villager. Nevermind the fact that I am vanilla villager, but the percentage play is terrible.

[Autumn]

How is it a bad percentage play. There are 8 people left, I believe, and one of this is almost certainly the cunning wolf. Several of those 8 are very, very unlikely to be wolves. If we had started the game suggesting that the seer's teammate would be the cunning, yes that would be a poor percentage, but we're looking at different statistics at this point.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not dead set on doing this play - there is definitely risk in it.

If I was pretty sure on the other wolf I would push hard for taking out the other wolf first. As it stands, I'm waffling a bit on what I think is the best play.

A bad lynch, no matter who it is, gives control back to the wolves in a game with six players and a brutal wolf.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Autumn

How is it a bad percentage play. There are 8 people left, I believe, and one of this is almost certainly the cunning wolf. Several of those 8 are very, very unlikely to be wolves. If we had started the game suggesting that the seer's teammate would be the cunning, yes that would be a poor percentage, but we're looking at different statistics at this point.

The role has a 50% chance of being in the game. Twenty people started the game, meaning there is 2.5% chance any of us is the cunning wolf. In addition, I have been scanned and cleared. Lets take that percentage to about 1.5% due to that. It is just not a good decision.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm not dead set on doing this play - there is definitely risk in it.

If I was pretty sure on the other wolf I would push hard for taking out the other wolf first. As it stands, I'm waffling a bit on what I think is the best play.

A bad lynch, no matter who it is, gives control back to the wolves in a game with six players and a brutal wolf.

Problem is, without a for sure other wolf, I don't know how we can ignore this or let it be. Don't we have to explore this?

[Autumn]

What makes you think there's a 50% chance?

And 12 of those people are dead, so clearly they were not the cunning. Therefore, if there is a cunning, there is a 12.5% chance that it was you. Yes, there's less chance that you're a wolf, by sheer numbers, than anyone else, but based on voting records there's a much greater chance than average that you are one.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Problem is, without a for sure other wolf, I don't know how we can ignore this or let it be. Don't we have to explore this?

No, I don't think you have to explore it. If the wolves were clever, they could have left GE alive just for this reason.

I think you guys should vote purely on wolfiness and voting records today. GE is a primate candidate because of that, I think, and to a lesser extent because of the night kill.

[cougarfreak]

I will.stick with pass for now, but I see how the GE thing makes some sense. I do not want a tie, won't that give the wolf group a nightkill without us having a shot at lynching a wolf?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

I will.stick with pass for now, but I see how the GE thing makes some sense. I do not want a tie, won't that give the wolf group a nightkill without us having a shot at lynching a wolf?

I don't think so. I thought ALL night activities would not happen...including a night kill.

[Autumn]

Prime candidate, not primate. Sorry GE, not trying to call you an ape ;-)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

No, I don't think you have to explore it. If the wolves were clever, they could have left GE alive just for this reason.

I think you guys should vote purely on wolfiness and voting records today. GE is a primate candidate because of that, I think, and to a lesser extent because of the night kill.

I am comfortable with this. Voting records have reflected some doubt about GE's allegiance, and he has skated by because of the scan. This makes sense to me. Unless a better analysis comes along, I am comfortable with GE as a candidate today, whether prime or primate.

[Autumn]

If GE was good, then we have to assume either Chief is a wolf, or none of the wolves voted for McKerney. That would be odd, but certainly possible. In which case, Pass who abstained from voting, possibly holding onto his vote for a possible save, looks bad, as does Cougar and PF, who manage to not vote JAG but not not vote a presumed villager in Mckerney. In which case, who looks worse, PF who votes NTN very early and doesn't get any traction, or Cougar who adds Pass to the list when there's already two other non-JAG options? Cougar and Pass have to be the most unlikely wolf pairing based on that.

[Danny]

Pass and GE, book it!

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Danny

Pass and GE, book it!

Want to place a bet?

[Danny]

Let's also not forget pass wanted bh lynched earlier which would have helped clear ge.

That said, we should not go for the cunning first, absolutely no way. A brutal kill does not hurt us at all, and in case were wrong and say pass is the cunning, we would then be saving ourselves from lynching ge al together. I think voting for ge is a bad move today (even though. Ithink he's a wolf)

[PackerFanatic]

Had I been around last night, I would have moved my NTN vote, since it never went anywhere. I will follow the GE train of thought for now. I really need to do a better job of analysis myself, heh...

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

164 Autumn votes JAG 1-0
169 PF votes Mauboy 1-1 JAG/Mau
170 Lathum votes Rum 1-1-1 JAG/Mau/Rum
172 Mau votes Rum 2-1-1 Rum over JAG/Mau
175 Danny votes JAG 2-2-1 Rum/JAG over Mau
178 JAG votes Autumn 2-2-1-1 Rum/JAG over Mau/Autumn
181 bhl votes Mau 2-2-2-1 Rum/JAG/Mau over Autumn
* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *
185 MartinD votes Mau 3-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
186 Rum votes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
187 mck votes Mau 5-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
189 Rum unvotes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
193 Danny unvotes JAG, votes NTN 4-2-1-1-1 Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG/NTN
194 Jackal votes NTN 4-2-2-1-1 Mau over Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
200 Hoops votes NTN 4-3-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
205 Zinto votes Chief 4-3-3-1-1 Mau over NTN/Rum over Autumn/JAG
206 NTN votes Chief 4-4-3-1-1 Mau/Rum over NTN over Autumn/JAG
212 Pass votes NTN 4-4-4-1-1 Mau/Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
213 Chief votes NTN 5-4-4-1-1 NTN over Mau/Rum over Autumn/JAG
219 Crimson votes Mau 5-5-4-1-1 NTN/Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG
222 NTN unvotes Chief, votes Mau 6-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
224 - DV votes Mau. 7-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
226 - Cougar votes Mau 8-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
234 - Mau unvotes Chief, votes NTN 8-6-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
235 - GE votes NTN, 8-7-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
237 - Saldana votes NTN, 8-8-2-1-1 Mau/NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
240 - Lathum unvotes Rum, votes NTN 9-8-1-1-1 NTN over Mau over Autumn/JAG/Rum
242 - Chief unvotes NTN, votes Mau 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/JAG/Rum
* 251 - Mauboy's "if only I could see the future" post with 1 hour 40 minutes until lynch deadline *
258 - Autumn unvotes JAG, votes Mau 10-8-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum
* 262 - I ask if people missed post #251, why no one is reacting to this. 1 hour 10 minutes until lynch deadline *
264 - NTN unvotes Mau, votes JAG 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG
277 - Danny unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-7-1-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG/Crimson
279 - Mau unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-6-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/JAG
280 - Rum unvotes Mau, votes JAG 8-6-2-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
290 - Autumn unvotes Mau 7-6-2-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
291 - Autumn votes JAG 7-6-3-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum
301 - Saldana unvotes NTN, votes MartinD 7-5-3-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/MartinD
* 301 is the post where Saldana reveals that MartinD forwarded his PM with info on being a wolf. 25 minutes before deadline. *
304 - Danny changes vote to MartinD
305 - Autumn changes vote to MartinD
315 - mck changes vote to MartinD
318 - PF changes vote to MartinD
322 - DV changes vote to MartinD
327 - Cougar changes vote to MartinD
330 - Mau changes vote to MartinD
337 - NTN changes vote to MartinD
340 - Lathum changes vote to MartinD

Okay, not sure if this is helpful, but wanted to go back and add the color here. I didn't bother coloring the end, and gave up on coloring the vote count.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Want to place a bet?

You're right, I could very well be wrong on you, and that's why votes for you are bad votes. There is no advantage to lynching the brutal last and voting for someone who could only be the cunning is a bad move.

[PackerFanatic]

That's a good point Danny made while I was posting...gah, darn these end-game scenarios.

UNVOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[GoldenEagle]

Can someone explain how my voting record is so suspicious?

The switch to JAG late yesterday does look fishy, but I did it on the premises that Pass could come in and create a tie.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Can someone explain how my voting record is so suspicious?

The switch to JAG late yesterday does look fishy, but I did it on the premises that Pass could come in and create a tie.

Off the top of my head, you also pushed up mckerney (admittedly on top of mine) yesterday when JAG was still clearly in the lead, and moved mckerney within one.

And your endless pursuit of ntndeacon has been fishy to me all game. I would have to take a look at the rest of your votes to see where they sit, but I don't recall some great vote by you at the moment.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Off the top of my head, you also pushed up mckerney (admittedly on top of mine) yesterday when JAG was still clearly in the lead, and moved mckerney within one.

And your endless pursuit of ntndeacon has been fishy to me all game. I would have to take a look at the rest of your votes to see where they sit, but I don't recall some great vote by you at the moment.

I pushed for ntn because it was a vote for information. I still think there is a good chance he is a wolf My idea was simple. If ntn came back as a wolf, it cleared pass. If not, then pass is likely a wolf. You also have to consider that JAG was very defensive on ntn yesterday.

Mckerney's day 1 move right before mau reveled as the seer is what got my attention. It would not surprise if that was planned. If I recall correctly, mau was starting to pull away with the votes.

I will be around all afternoon to answer questions.

[EagleFan]

As you prepare for the next leg of the race the teams all congregate in a meeting room at the hotel where everyone is staying. The netwrok has called everyone together hoping to keep everyone is as good of a mood as possible after the recent events involving Lathum and The Jackal (they try to avoid any other homicidal tendencies).

"We wanted to help everyone relax by offering a movie night. This way everyone can forget about the game for a while."

"We would like to let you view a world premier of a movie which we will be broadcasting after the race is over. It is about a hero from the mountains. He was a miner that was stricken down in the prime of his life. There has been much controversy about him since his death and some view him as a hero but others see him in a less than favorable light."

"We would like to present you with the premier of Bull Moose Special."

[EagleFan]

Sorry, was bored at work.

Just a reminder that the results will be posted late tonight.

[Autumn]

lol

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

Let's also not forget pass wanted bh lynched earlier which would have helped clear ge.

I don't really know what you're trying to say about me, but to clarify -- I never said I wanted bhlloy lynched. In fact, I argued that he was not likely to be the cunning, since if he were, he wouldn't have killed DV.

[Danny]

You scared me ef. The page was loading on my phone and my phone and first thing I read was bull moose special and I thought we were going to have a dead villager

[Passacaglia]

I guess that's more denying, rather than clarifying.

[Danny]

I might be remembering that wrong then. Doesn't change my feelings on you though since it has to do with your relation to ge and not you individually.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

I might be remembering that wrong then. Doesn't change my feelings on you though since it has to do with your relation to ge and not you individually.

That's cool, I'm not really trying to sway opinions, I'm just correcting misinformation.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As you prepare for the next leg of the race the teams all congregate in a meeting room at the hotel where everyone is staying. The netwrok has called everyone together hoping to keep everyone is as good of a mood as possible after the recent events involving Lathum and The Jackal (they try to avoid any other homicidal tendencies).

"We wanted to help everyone relax by offering a movie night. This way everyone can forget about the game for a while."

"We would like to let you view a world premier of a movie which we will be broadcasting after the race is over. It is about a hero from the mountains. He was a miner that was stricken down in the prime of his life. There has been much controversy about him since his death and some view him as a hero but others see him in a less than favorable light."

"We would like to present you with the premier of Bull Moose Special."

[Lathum]

lol

[Chief Rum]

The WTF moment on the Bull Moose Special was, in retrospect, just an awesomely hilarious moment.

[Coffee Warlord]

Just wait till the next leg. A mystical being riding a flying yak will be awaiting your arrival, bearing gifts of coffee and ham.