WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

mckerney, do you in any way think that I'm a wolf at this point in the game? Given the events over the last two days?

If not, I don't really think there is a lot worth arguing here.

No, I don't believe that you're a wolf, just that I don't think the point you were making in Chief's defense helps him at all.

[hoopsguy]

OK, fair enough on not helping Chief in a meaningful level.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan
As of post 1369:

Danny 6 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294), mckerney (1342), GoldenEagle (1362), Chief Rum (1369)
hoopsguy 3 - Danny (1314), Passacaglia (1316), PackerFanatic (1324)
Passacaglia 3 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293), bhlloy (1358)

Repost of Day 5 vote:
NTN + Cougar on the wolf that day. Sure seems to support their cause. I'll go pull the vote/unvote stuff from that day to see how it goes down, as this is obviously an important day to review at this point.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I need to put a vote in, and it's too late to drum up a new candidate. I'm going with my gut--I don't think hoops is a wolf. And while I like Danny's play, he's the most suspicious of those on the block left, IMO. I don't think I would normally vote him, with what he's done so far, but we're down to two, really.

VOTE DANNY

At this point it was 5-3-3, Danny Hoops/Pass. Interesting that Chief didn't mention Pass at all as a possibility.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As of post 1302:

Danny 3 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293)
ntndeacon 1 - GoldenEagle (1297)

This is the vote count at 8:39 pm that day. Will be interesting to see what happens here as Hoops isn't even in the count yet.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh...typical hardly mention hoops all day and then make a run while I went to go work out.

Look, I don't know hoops' allegiance. He may very well be a wolf. But just from the conversations I have had with him, he doesn't vibe like a wolf. I have seen a lot of mentions about him not being around as much and that being suspicious, but it's the truth that he's busy as heck at work. He's told me that in PMs, too, and hoops sn't the kind of guy to lie a out RL stuff to hide as a wolf. Like I said, he could very well be a wolf, but if the only reason some have is that he isn't around, u guys are barking up the wrong tree.

Plus, Pass has exhibited about as poor logical and argumentative skills in this game as I have ever seen in a player in a single game. If he took me to a sunrise and told me the sun exists, I am not sure I would buy it right now; that's how much cred he has. So following him onto hoops, I can't see the logic there.

As for the current other candidates, whatever his other qualities, I don't think Pass plays this way as a wolf. I have already pointed out how nutty it would be to see ntn as a wolf with the way Day 1 went. And I have had a good vibe from Danny all game. None of these choices really work for me, although Danny is very good as a wild hiding as a villager, and his actions, if not his words, have struck me as more suspicious than the other candidates.

It's just for vibe reasons, but my gut says to look closer at PF (who just did a driveby vote), cougar has seemed aittle off, and GE isn't as active as I recall him being.

So Danny adds Hoops to the mix, Pass follows, not a big surprise there. Packer Fan adds a drive-by vote to make Hoops have 3. Not a great vote, but he could have simply gone Danny, so I don't know if it means anything.

Then Chief posts this. I have to say I think it gives him some clearance. He had both Danny and Hoops to choose from over Pass at this point. A wolf Chief should probably jump on one of those two, rather than suggesting adding a fourth candidate.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, I have thought about that myself, but it's just not a wolf play. I don't really think Pass is a wolf. I think Pass is many things at the moment--but a wolf is not really one of them, at least not without more proof.

Unless he's playing some sort of double blind game ("best hiding place is in plain sight", etc.), it seems unlikely to me that Pass would play this out the way he has while being a wolf.

Going back to earlier in the day, yes, I think those first two votes on Pass are solid. There was no need to introduce him at that point. He was arguing with Chief, and one could have either gone with Chief, or gone elsewhere and avoided the whole thing. So those are real solid village votes I think.

Here is Chief's reaction right after Pass is added. This one colors him a bit worse I think, coming out in pretty strong defense of Pass as soon as he was added as a vote target.

[Autumn]

I would consider Cougar and NTN cleared for this next vote, based on those votes. McKerney and PF are still murky based on those votes themselves, and Chief of course.

[Autumn]

1438 - Autumn votes mckerney 1-0
1508 - PF votes NTN 1-1 mck/NTN
1516 - Hoops votes Pass 1-1-1 mck/NTN/Pass
1547 - Autumn unvotes mckerney 1-1 NTN/Pass
1570 - Autumn votes JAG 1-1-1 NTN/Pass/JAG
1585 - Hoops unvotes Pass, votes JAG 2-1 JAG over NTN
1591 - NTN votes JAG 3-1 JAG over NTN
1594 - Chief votes mckerney 3-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck
1599 - Cougar votes Pass 3-1-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck/Pass
1606 - GE votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1618 - NTN unvotes JAG, votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1632 - mck votes Pass 3-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1634 - JAG votes mckerney 4-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1640 - mck unvotes Pass, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1666 - NTN unvotes mck, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1678 - GE unvotes mck, votes JAG 5-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass

This bears a new look as well, now knowing Pass was bad.

Yesterday's vote should be examined I think, considering that both PF and Mckerney moved off GE, a villager, onto Pass, a wolf, for the decisive votes. Looking back, do we think they felt enough pressure that they had to move? Or does that pretty much clear them and point a finger at Chief?

[Autumn]

Mckerney in the vote posted above basically puts Pass in the mix at 1632 tying him with JAG behind Mckerney. Not much of a wolf move there. He then later switches from Pass to JAG, allowing NTN to put JAG ahead. Hard to argue that Mckerney looks like a wolf there.

It seems Chief and PF are the only ones to consider right now, in my mind, unless I've missed someone.

[Autumn]

I guess I've ignored Hoops. I may go back and look at him again, too. But my impression so far is that if he's a wolf, he deserves to win the game so that we can go back to lynching him day 1 every day.

[Danny]

Autumn, also don't forget that Pass was willing to follow on the Hoops vote. I'd say there is no way Hoops should receive a vote. I doubt he's a wolf and if he is, he deserves a good job and the win.

[Danny]

Cougar, ntn and Hoops are almost certainly villagers. I find it ridiculous that people are still looking at ntn.

Our last wolf is between CR, Mckerney and Packer.

[Danny]

I also wonder if CR really comes out for Pass like that yesterday knowing he's going to be the lynch? It's quite possible he really felt he was going to be a villager.

[Danny]

It's possible CR is just guilty of having a bad game lol

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I guess I've ignored Hoops. I may go back and look at him again, too. But my impression so far is that if he's a wolf, he deserves to win the game so that we can go back to lynching him day 1 every day.

I have to agree on trusting hoops. I could see a situation where a wolf would help vote off his two teammates to gain trust, but in this situation it's not something I could see the brutal doing.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Danny

Cougar, ntn and Hoops are almost certainly villagers. I find it ridiculous that people are still looking at ntn.

Our last wolf is between CR, Mckerney and Packer.

And we have two lynches to get the right one, correct?

[Danny]

That's correct.

[mckerney]

How confident is everyone else that it's down to me, Chief Rum and Packer?

[Danny]

I think you just revealed as the duke

[Autumn]

Well, unfortunately we're dead, but I'm pretty sure Danny and I agree that it's down to you three, and I've already narrowed it down to PF and Chief.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think you just revealed as the duke

I was thinking now would be the time to do that so I don't have to decide who to lynch first.

[Danny]

And if I'm correct on that, we are definitely down to CR and Packer.

[Danny]

It's a fine time I think. Good job on the duke btw, I'm glad you didnt go willy nilly with it over the last couple days like some would have

[Danny]

Mau, great job on our race plan yesterday, I still don't know how we managed that.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Danny

Mau, great job on our race plan yesterday, I still don't know how we managed that.

Yeah, punching the drunk in the face and stealing his car worked! WOOT!

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Danny

It's a fine time I think. Good job on the duke btw, I'm glad you didnt go willy nilly with it over the last couple days like some would have

I was ready to use it on JAG when I was on the block. Probably would've voted for JAG earlier in the day if I hadn't had the ability to duke, but I was guessing I'd get some wolf votes and wanted to see how things would play out with 3 candidates.

[Autumn]

Yeah, McK, excellent Duke work. First time in a long time I've seen it managed wisely (including the one time I had it and muffed it).

I think you were already cleared based on my analysis above, but still good to know.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Yeah, McK, excellent Duke work. First time in a long time I've seen it managed wisely (including the one time I had it and muffed it).

I think you were already cleared based on my analysis above, but still good to know.

Yeah, good work on the posts Autumn. Who knew that letting dead villagers talk would hurt the wolves so much

[Autumn]

Well it makes sense, they don't have to worry about us, and it's rather liberating to be able to post without trying to imagine if you're going to get yourself voted by it.

[Autumn]

I also think it could be illuminating to look back at PF. I don't have a sense on him other than the stuff I looked at above, whereas I've been following Chief all game.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Danny

It's possible CR is just guilty of having a bad game lol

Is he normally one of he better players?

[Autumn]

I think, without digging it up, that PF had the first vote on Mauboy day 1. Chief adn Martin voted him simultaneously later. So it's interesting to see that we definitely had a lot of wolf on wolf votes to start the game. I suspected that they had decided to try that tack. Those votes therefore no longer help to clear either of those guys.

[cougarfreak]

"the", not "he", sorry.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

Is he normally one of the better players?

Definitely, Cougar. The fact that he's been so off on his analysis and targets is a big reason I suspect he's a wolf. He's usually spot-on with his analysis as a villager.

[cougarfreak]

Well, I'll say this. Keeping all the dead people talking has certainly been helpful for a fairly new player.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well it makes sense, they don't have to worry about us, and it's rather liberating to be able to post without trying to imagine if you're going to get yourself voted by it.

It helped to have some voices we knee we could trust, and even more with you two and Crimson having solid analysis.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Mckerney in the vote posted above basically puts Pass in the mix at 1632 tying him with JAG behind Mckerney. Not much of a wolf move there. He then later switches from Pass to JAG, allowing NTN to put JAG ahead. Hard to argue that Mckerney looks like a wolf there.

It seems Chief and PF are the only ones to consider right now, in my mind, unless I've missed someone.

That is where I'm at now as well, although I haven't done the vote/post dive exercise that you've gone through this afternoon.

[Autumn]

I just read back through PF's posts. Really nothing to go by there, I think. The only suspicion he creates is that 1) I don't remember him being this quiet normally and 2) it certainly would be the best wolf strategy to play as quietly as he has. He put in a good vote day 1 and coasted on it until now. His general strategy seemed to be to vote early, and often ended up on a non-candidate. Chief looks more like he was trying to influence votes in the game, PF may have been implementing a "stay out of the vote drama" strategy. Hard to say.

[Chief Rum]

I'm not a wolf. I am glad mckerney came out as the duke. Since we have a couple days, I think it's about time I get less emotional tripped up in this game, for whatever reason, and back toward my analytical side. So I'll take a look at vote counts myself and see what I can find. I don't know that it will end up any better than what you guys have, but we'll see...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

Is he normally one of he better players?

Go figure, huh? I have to live up to my rep every game, or I tend to disappoint people. I think I played an excellent game in the Vegas game, so this is really just the law of averages.

To be fair, there are a ton of truly great players in this community. I could name off ten off of the top of my head without even thinking. I don't think I am better than any one of them.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think, without digging it up, that PF had the first vote on Mauboy day 1. Chief adn Martin voted him simultaneously later. So it's interesting to see that we definitely had a lot of wolf on wolf votes to start the game. I suspected that they had decided to try that tack. Those votes therefore no longer help to clear either of those guys.

I definately think the PF early vote on mau is no longer clearing either.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well it makes sense, they don't have to worry about us, and it's rather liberating to be able to post without trying to imagine if you're going to get yourself voted by it.

[CrimsonFox]

When's the next deadline for race and werewolf? MOnday?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

When's the next deadline for race and werewolf? MOnday?

Yep, 9 and 10 on Monday.

[PackerFanatic]

I have been admittedly quiet this game, and I apologize for that. I do tend to be quiet more often than not, but definitely more so this week (stupid week-long training sucked the life outta me, lol). I will simply say this...I followed the bandwagon yesterday (Friday) - I didn't want to hit the cunning first, to give us a better chance, and I was amongst those that though GE could be it (hence my quick unvote after voting him) and I didn't want to NOT get a vote in, so I followed hoops' lead with my vote (hence the hit-and-run)

I think my day 1 vote is probably my only saving grace right now, even though it's being questioned right now. If I were a wolf, it would be a pretty ballsy move to open up the voting on a fellow wolf - even on the first day. You never know who is going to gain traction on those days, why would I risk a friend that early?

[EagleFan]

Leg Seven in Pictures


Frankfurt Airport

[EagleFan]

RIP Major Winters

[ntndeacon]

Vote Packer

[EagleFan]

As of post 1999:

PackerFanatic 1 - ntndeacon (1999)