Werewolf XX - Of Demons and Elementals (Humans Win!)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Well, without reading a whole lot, yours is well, just a general feeling. I seem to remember you defending gramm...well, I think.

When I read over the past...gah...300 friggin posts or so...I may have a better understanding of what's going on.

I'll admit to being skeptical of cronin, but I don't really know anything about Gram. I have no read on him, and that's why I was fine with a lynching or duking of him, just to see what happens. But, I *really* can't figure cronin out, and have a hard time taking everything he says at face value. Eventually, he did come out and say that Gram is a demon, but for such a long time, he wouldn't even say that -- just talked about the number of kills there would be if we didn't. I mean, how could not lynching Gram result in three more people being killed? I'm not asking for any reveal here -- even a POSSBILE way that could go down. It just all seems too weird, as if his argument isn't based on analysis -- just consequences.

[Passacaglia]

I'm sure Alan T will be the first to note that I meant to say POSSIBLE.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And how many PMs did Blade send you on his action? Not expecting an answer, just a chuckle.

i sent him 4(this day cycle, not including past days)...first to kill gramat, then sun, then back to gramat, then a no kill. I started making names for the PM, like the third PM was something like(since my role is the lord): Lord of the rings: Return of the duke

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

i sent him 4(this day cycle, not including past days)...first to kill gramat, then sun, then back to gramat, then a no kill. I started making names for the PM, like the third PM was something like(since my role is the lord): Lord of the rings: Return of the duke

Priceless.

[SnDvls]

The Elementals
Immortal creatures of immense power, and immense enigma. Most people who have tried to understand them have long since gone stark-raving made. They are big, they are powerful, and they are there. Why they have taken interest in this event is uncertain, but what IS known about them is they can be appeased by certain sacrifice. If one of proper magical skill sacrifices the right living creature a the proper time of night, the Elementals just may grant that side a Favor. As for what they get out of the deal...who knows.

That said, while they are immortal in the sense that they do not die of age/disease, these creatures can be killed, though it is not easy. An elemental being threatened (ie - is lynched or murdered) will immediatly revert to their natural form, with the ensuing wave of power preventing their demise. However, once they have been reduced to their true form, they may be executed by either side at their leisure. Of course, also note, they can expend their vast powers in other ways. Pissing off an elemental is a sure way of getting yourself killed.

(In plain english, elementals ignore the first lynch vote OR night kill directed their way. Their role is revealed when it happens, and then they are just as vulnerable as anyone else. In futher plain english, they also have a once-per-game-per-elemental power to flat out kill another player.)

Just wanted to bring this part back up for everyone to see. Note the last line.

[Blade6119]

Unless to point out that would be the reason why its soo dangerous to accuse cronin, i dont see much of a point in that post. I doubt anyone forgot that

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Unless to point out that would be the reason why its soo dangerous to accuse cronin, i dont see much of a point in that post. I doubt anyone forgot that

I did the last line that's why I brought it up.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I did the last line that's why I brought it up.

if you forgot they can kill i apologize...i just thought it was repeated a lot this game, so i assumed...sorry

[Passacaglia]

So SnDvls, are you answering me, that that's the possible way four people could have died if we didn't lynch Gram? I see now how four people could die, but -- why did it all depend on Gram?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So SnDvls, are you answering me, that that's the possible way four people could have died if we didn't lynch Gram? I see now how four people could die, but -- why did it all depend on Gram?

In all honesty im not sure 4 people would have died...i think it may have just been a bluff to make it too costly for him to be killed...i can see it happen, maybe, but i doubt it would have. Favors could come into play i dont see though, so i could very well be wrong

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So SnDvls, are you answering me, that that's the possible way four people could have died if we didn't lynch Gram? I see now how four people could die, but -- why did it all depend on Gram?

let's look at it this way.

I think most of us agree there are probally 3 elementals to make a concensis for the sacrafices (at least that is the general assumption I am working with)

so
WHAT IF....

St. C was right?

I would have died, villager -1
for what ever reason the elementals had decided to each kill a person -3 more
that would leave us down 4 people, now would all 3 of the elementals kills been villagers? I don't know that.

How did St. C know about 4 kills? I have an idea once the night actions come in I'll post my thoughts.

This works on a lot of assumptions just like Blade's did earlier so who knows. I'll I know is that we are gaining at least one villager back tonight because of me. If Barkeep is on the up and up that's two. looks like keeping me around could have been a 5 person swing in favor of the villagers.

[hoopsguy]

I don't have enough information to process the 4 kill concept, but I'm willing (for now) to believe that Cronin was very pro-human with his play today.

[Poli]

I think I've seen Gramm in here twice now...and he hasn't responded at all.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I think I've seen Gramm in here twice now...and he hasn't responded at all.

I've been in more than twice, I am not engaging in meaningful discussion until after the night round is complete, and of course I am still alive. Hoopsguy thinks that is a given (that I will be alive). I hope he is right!

[Poli]

I think that's a given too, fwiw. Either you're an elemental, druid/warlock, or just a demon. Someone out there likes you.

[Grammaticus]

dola, at the same time, I am trying to stay on top of the reading. It is killing me to come back and have pages to read.

[Barkeep49]

I highly doubt he is an elemental. Dac was an elemental and that was quite clear. I don't think CW would make us three kill somebody via voting.

[dubb93]

OK, got finished up reading...what in the hell is St. Cronin up to? I know for a fact there is a seer...

I was scanned on night 1(my role is a night time wonderer role, thats all I say now, it lets me know anything that may be happening to me at night, that how I know there was a seer at some point). So there is one lie there. I'll talk more after the night actions, but rest assured I'll be back to normal form tonight.

[Poli]

Did he say there wasn't a seer, or did he just suggest there wasn't?

I'm inclined to believe st.cronin.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Did he say there wasn't a seer, or did he just suggest there wasn't?

I'm inclined to believe st.cronin.

You believe, I'll continue to be suspecious. I just don't like the sound of the posts I just read from him.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by dubb93

You believe, I'll continue to be suspecious. I just don't like the sound of the posts I just read from him.

That's fine, but I don't remember him saying there wasn't a seer. Did he?

[Poli]

Dola, I'm not trying to stir up anything, I just don't know.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

That's fine, but I don't remember him saying there wasn't a seer. Did he?

Let me look again. I remember him saying he believes there wasn't a seer. And with him trying to pass everything he says off as fact, I have to call a lie on that. I'll admit, I just read about 9 pages in 25-30 minutes, so I may have accidently misread something. Let me check again.

[hoopsguy]

The prevailing belief is that King was the seer, but as far as I could tell he didn't leave much of anything for us to view after he was cut down (assassin?) on Night 2.

By all means question Cronin, but I'll vouch for him as a non-demon. That's all I've got on him and I don't pretend to understand how he has played the game so far. Probably because of incomplete information ...

[Poli]

Probably like the same situation as Saldana.

[dubb93]

I'm going to back out of the thread again and go back into my shell. I'll be back after the night deadline, hopefully tonight, possibly tomorrow morning I guess. I just don't want to tip my hand before the actions go through.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm going to back out of the thread again and go back into my shell. I'll be back after the night deadline, hopefully tonight, possibly tomorrow morning I guess. I just don't want to tip my hand before the actions go through.

I see right through you.

[Poli]

Just throwing this out there...

Maybe Gramm is the warlock and dubb is a fellow demon? It would seem to me that the warlock would have the other demons fighting for his life.

Just tossing it out there...I'm probably dead wrong.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Just throwing this out there...

Maybe Gramm is the warlock and dubb is a fellow demon? It would seem to me that the warlock would have the other demons fighting for his life.

Just tossing it out there...I'm probably dead wrong.

Alright, I'll comment before the actions b/c I don't like having accusations thrown my way. I am not a demon. I have no clue about Gramm, but I saw very little resistance thrown his way yesterday. It was an easy vote.

Cronin, appears to consistantly have stupid information. One reason I don't believe his role, is b/c I see no reason how Coffee could know that if Sun was lynched, 4 would die today, unless Sun was a brutal type. I'm going to dig some more up, let me see.

Cronin seems to have an impossible role. Coffee could give him hints, but he can't predict free will. And that is what all of us in this have, free will.

[Poli]

It's ok. I believe you, I was just throwing out suggestions. I keep trying to read through the thread...but apparently o'hare airport is having problems and we're having students call in...constantly.

Couple that with my tired state, and it's hard to concentrate.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I see right through you.

Keep in mind, the guy vouching me for is vouching for you too. I'd be careful, b/c I'm leary of Hoops too.

Sorry hoops, I don't know if it was you the viewed me of not, I tend to think it was King, but if you are right on with the way you are viewing everyones roles in this mess, good job indeed.

I hate to say it, but I don't like lynching or killing Gramm with tell us a whole lot. I think either Sun, Hoops, or Cronin needs to die b/f I can get a really good read of this game at this point. And if one of them dies and is clean, that should clear the entire group. Of course if one is bad....

[Poli]

Who cleared you and st.cronin?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Who cleared you and st.cronin?

No one cleared us, but Hoops has been adamant about "vouching" for us.

[Poli]

Ah, thanks.

[dubb93]

I see Coffee is in here. Hopefully we can get the night actions a little early. I have a feeling with the way today's lynch vote went, we have alot of talking to do tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Yes, I'm backing both Cronin and Dubb as non-demons. For different reasons. And I am even more convinced at this point they are members of different factions. Everything Dubb has posted so far resonates with my expectations of his role, based upon pretty incomplete information before now.

I am not interested in revealing my role to validate how I have obtained some of this information. Some of it comes via night PMs, but there is other information that is obtained just by paying attention.

[st.cronin]

saldana's ghost is near

[hoopsguy]

Dubb, Cronin doesn't have knowledge of me but he knows SnDvls and Gram. You know you are not in his faction. Think this one through - I think a wrong play on this thinking could be very bad for us. I'm looking for help sifting through this data, and I'm worried that the demons have more complete information than me here. But if that isn't the case, then I don't want to help them along.

Clear as mud? I hope a little more clear than that, but not much.

[st.cronin]

It is pointless to try to get me to reveal more before dawn. og at

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, you intimated that you knew the demons would not get a successful kill on Night 1. How would you have known that?

1. Did you somehow know who the demons would target?
2. Saldana appears to have lived based on his role - I can't imagine you knew he was the bard when he was fingering you the next day.

So I'm definitely confused on that point. Also on the "4 die if SnDvls is lynched" stuff, but lets start with this comment.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, the comment to Dubb wasn't intended to generate a response from you. I'm fine with you keeping that information vaulted (I think). But the 2nd question, directed at you about Saldana - is that info out of bounds as well until tomorrow?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, the comment to Dubb wasn't intended to generate a response from you. I'm fine with you keeping that information vaulted (I think). But the 2nd question, directed at you about Saldana - is that info out of bounds as well until tomorrow?

yes

I feel pretty safe that the demons won't target me tonight. But if they do, more will be revealed by that very action.

[Poli]

Snap.

[dubb93]

I'll say this, if Cronin is an elemental, like I believe you are "hinting", then he isn't working for us. He set us up to lynch someone he knew he was protecting. Because my faction in with the humans, and if he isn't a demon that only leaves the elementals.

If you are claiming there are sub factions among the humans, you have alot more convincing to do.

If Cronin is in fact an elemental, I have to believe they don't have a winning condition that they win if the humans win(or even one where they could win if the demons win). His play yesterday almost has to prove that.

[Poli]

My only guess is the elementals win if both the druid and warlock are alive in the end of the game.

Most likely not the answer, but my best guess.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

My only guess is the elementals win if both the druid and warlock are alive in the end of the game.

Most likely not the answer, but my best guess.

I was actually going to guess that. But didn't want to come right out and say it. If that is the case, and Cronin is one, why would he steer the conversation toward Gramm and then protect him.

The only thing I was making sense of, was that Gram was either the druid or warlock, but why would an elemental steer the convo toward one of those only to protect him? I have a guess...but I don't think I should say it before the night actions.

[hoopsguy]

Dacman could potentially provide insight here, but he has been silent since his one post on elementals.

[dubb93]

OK, screw it..could this be a situation where the elementals alternate between protecting the druid and warlock each day, and locked in the order at the start of the game. Thus if the lynch went the other way, they could have guarenteed a loss for themselves?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Blade, your analysis is somewhat off because you're ignoring a key part of what I was going for.

- I knew Gram was a demon, and thought he would be revealed as such upon lynch.
- I knew Sun was human, but more than protecting a human I was adamant that he not be lynched on that particular day.

If you think I'm fishy and want to lynch him tomorrow, go right ahead. I am human, though, and my agenda is with the humans. I don't know who the demons go after tonight; I would assume they would go for either me or hoopsguy, since one of us knows too much. Or they may go for you, assuming you are human (I honestly don't have a read on that), or another human, one playing a more quiet game.

I promise if I am still alive I will have more information tomorrow.

quoted

[Poli]

Maybe each elemental has his own agenda.