Official 2009-2010 MLB Offseason Thread

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Meh, I took it as good news. Explains why he was god-awful to start the year. He came back looking good; hopefully that's what we'll get going forward.

yes, good news in that he came back and pitched well.

not good news that he hid the injury from the team though - in fact that's in violation of his contract, and just continues to display that there are these huge cultural differences that i think are hindering his ability to ever achieve the level of success that his talent has shown he can have (whether it's this, or refusing to adapt and become less of a "nibbler.")

it also shows once again that the WBC is at a fucked-up time.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

In a perfect world, I would be really pissed at Matsuzaka for this. It's become apparent to me that his signing has not been perfect; as long as he can perform reasonably well going forward I'll be happy.

Although I disagree about the WBC - he could have injured himself and hid it from the Sox at any point. This is more on him than on the tournament.

[McSweeny]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

yes, good news in that he came back and pitched well.

not good news that he hid the injury from the team though - in fact that's in violation of his contract, and just continues to display that there are these huge cultural differences that i think are hindering his ability to ever achieve the level of success that his talent has shown he can have (whether it's this, or refusing to adapt and become less of a "nibbler.")

it also shows once again that the WBC is at a fucked-up time.

You do realize that American players also hide injuries and play through them right? In fact, Manny Delcarmen did the exact same thing this past year. He had an injury, didn't tell anyone, and pitched extremely poorly down the stretch.

And let's not forget that these so-called "cultural differences" really hindered Matsuzaka from having a pretty good rookie year which included some pretty solid postseason results.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

You do realize that American players also hide injuries and play through them right? In fact, Manny Delcarmen did the exact same thing this past year. He had an injury, didn't tell anyone, and pitched extremely poorly down the stretch.

And let's not forget that these so-called "cultural differences" really hindered Matsuzaka from having a pretty good rookie year which included some pretty solid postseason results.

oh i realize that too. hiding injuries happens. but it shouldn't. you think you're helping your club but you're really hurting it.

and i freely acknowledge that he has had some success. i think i said as much in my initial post (maybe...i forget). He hasn't been a "bad" signing (at least if you don't include the full posting fee as part of the salary-discussion) at all. AT ALL.

But it's frustrating to see so clearly that he could be/could have been so much better. Missed opportunities.

[stevew]

I can't wait til Dusty gets ahold of another young pitcher.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't know about this year, but they'll both be gone for 2011. They should have a rotation of Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Chapman, and Leake for 2011.

Those five will cost about what Arroyo and Harang make now.

I like the outlook of the Reds rotation. I expect this season to be nothing special. It is obvious the reds are looking ahead. Get Arroyo and Harang off the books. Maybe add a bat and POTENTIALLY they are in the hunt in 2011.

What excites me the most is that the Reds are showing they actually want to fucking win. I don't really know a whole lot about Chapman other then what the media tells me but it's not really Chapman that excites me. It's seeing the front office actually get off their asses.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by stevew

I can't wait til Dusty gets ahold of another young pitcher.

Unfortunately, being a Reds fan, one of the first things that came to mind was how long before he's under the knife.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Fuck I hate this move. He is a better defense player than Lowell but he is probably still a drop from Lowell even with his hip/thumb stuff. I think even with the addition of Lackey the Sox have surely gotten worse while the Yanks got better. The sox really didn't need another arm but needed sticks! Look at the Sox from two years back: Ortiz now is shot, Lowell is gone more or less, Youk is no longer a clutch hitter, Pedroia came back down to earth, Ramirez production never was replaced and now they lost Bay oh and Varitek is not able to even foul a ball off. So our additions for hitters to replace that is...........Beltre, Cameron, Scuataro,Martinez? They are surely better defensively better in a hitters park they are going to try to play small ball? The Nation should get ready for alot of 6-2 losses.

As a Sox fan I take this Beltre signing as definite sign the Sox are all but conceding the AL east this season and setting payroll up for next year and make a huge run at Mauer. Problem is I am sure the Yanks are also looking that way with Posada getting up there.

The last 2 years Mike Lowell averaged 116 games and an .805 OPS (.713 away from Fenway last year). Adrian Beltre had no power last season until he had surgery, but has consistently put up an OPS .100-.150 higher away from Safeco. I don't even have to bring in defense to say that Adrian Beltre will be better in 2010 than Mike Lowell. Dustin Pedroia saw his BABIP drop .034 and his OPS only .050 (to his career average). Youkilis had his best season statistically and somehow isn't a clutch hitter now? I don't even know where to begin with the multiple ways that statement wrong - if Murray Chass had written it, FJM would be forced to start posting again. As much as I thought (and think) Ortiz is done, he hit 27 HR's and put up a ~.900 OPS from June on after the worst opening two months in baseball history. And Jason Varitek - who put up a whopping .672 OPS 2 years ago - is in line to catch 40-50 games instead of 100-130 of past years, having been replaced with someone who put an OPS of .850+ 5 of the last 6 seasons.

Last year, we gave up 736 runs, 3rd in the AL, and that will surely go down by defensively upgrading 4 defensive positions (CF/LF/3B/SS) to GG-level and replacing Brad Penny's 131 innings of 5.61 ERA ball and injured Dice-K/Smoltz/Paul Byrd's 125 innings of 6.50+ ERA ball with John Lackey and a healthy Dice-K. While I wasn't a fan of trading Ramirez, we also scored 872 runs, 3rd in MLB. While I won't guarantee we'll surpass that 4th place Philly scored 820 and I'd easily wager we still beat that. When Dawgfan said a run saved is equal to a run scored, he was actually slightly off from a RS perspective - because we score so many more than we allow a run saved is worth (slightly) more than an additional run scored.

Especially considering that the main problem with the RS of th epast 2 years has been assuming that past performance would hold and extending long-term committments to aging, declining players (Varitek, Ortiz, Lowell) it boggles the mind that people still wanted to sign Bay for 16m through 2014. We're not going to be out of the playoff race by July 31st, and if we still need the big bat we can acquire it then - neither of these short-term contracts hamstring the RS flexibility going forward.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If I were a Sox fan, what would concern me is that the Sox chose to go over the luxury tax threshold for Beltre. The reasoning for not staying in it on Bay or making a run at Holliday was because of the luxury tax threshold, so why cave for Beltre? If you're going to go over, might as well do it with gusto and get a really big power bat that will help you (I actually would have thought Holliday, actually, since Sox been there done that with Bay; not sure bringing back Bay would have been an improvement).

Now the Sox pretty much have to move Lowell to beat the luxury tax threshold. Still not sure they'll end up swinging that.

Not a huge fan of that, although the thinking is they'll also be under it next year and hopefully 2011, so we'd revert to the 25% tax like we did after being over in 2007 then under it in 2008/2009. (2 years under in a row brings you back down to the lowest bracket.) There's also a chance we can get under it for this year - it depends on getting a team to take Lowell and how much money we're paying for his contract, but supposedly the Kotchman for Hall deal saved a couple million and put us really close to the threshold.

[Dr. Sak]

Brett Myers is such a character!

The Fightins » Brett Myers says he is going to ’stick it’ to the Phillies.

Gotta love Ed Wade though...he trying to relive the early 2000s with the Phillies he is signing on the Astros. Too bad that's when the Phils sucked.

The Fightins » You Could Field An Entire Team With Ed Wade’s Ex-Phillies

[RedKingGold]

Bah, Myers will always have a special place in my heart with his at-bat against Sabathia and throwing at Manny in the 2008 playoffs.

[JS19]

They aren't even playing and the Mets can't stay healthy!

New York Mets' Carlos Beltran out 12 weeks after knee surgery - ESPN

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by JS19

They aren't even playing and the Mets can't stay healthy!

New York Mets' Carlos Beltran out 12 weeks after knee surgery - ESPN

[Big Fo]

After turning down 2 years/$17.5 mil from the Giants a week or two ago Adam LaRoche will sign with the Diamondbacks for 1 year/$4-5 mil. Oops.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

After turning down 2 years/$17.5 mil from the Giants a week or two ago Adam LaRoche will sign with the Diamondbacks for 1 year/$4-5 mil. Oops.

Guess he didn't get the memo about the recession. Time to fire your agent dude.

Lucky for the Giants he turned that down too. That'd be a big contract.

[ISiddiqui]

LOL!!

[sterlingice]

Florida Marlins' Josh Johnson agrees to 4-year, $39M deal - ESPN

Great news for the Marlins. It's very similar to Greinke's contract where he gets 2 arby years bought out ($3.75M/$7.75M) and then his first two free agent years for $13.75M each.

SI

[Atocep]

So did the Tigers seriously give up a 1st round pick and $14 million over 2 years for Valverde? In this market?

[lungs]

Mariners lock up King Felix... details are sketchy but 5 or 6 years seems to be what is being said.

[Lathum]

5 years/ 80 million is what I a seeing here.

[dawgfan]

5 years/$80M is great news for M's fans. Zduriencik is having a hell of an off-season...

[Vince, Pt. II]

F***. Bengie Molina re-signs with the Giants for 1 year, $4.5 millon.

2nd lowest OBP in the majors blocking the best catching prospect in the league. Brilliant.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

F***. Bengie Molina re-signs with the Giants for 1 year, $4.5 millon.

2nd lowest OBP in the majors blocking the best catching prospect in the league. Brilliant.

Best news I've heard all day!

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

F***. Bengie Molina re-signs with the Giants for 1 year, $4.5 millon.

2nd lowest OBP in the majors blocking the best catching prospect in the league. Brilliant.

Eh, it's just one year for relatively little money - if Posey is tearing it up, I doubt this contract is enough to prevent the Giants from calling him up and playing him full-time.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

5 years/$80M is great news for M's fans. Zduriencik is having a hell of an off-season...

Does that buy out any FA years, or just the rest of his arb ones? Great deal for the M's either way.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Eh, it's just one year for relatively little money - if Posey is tearing it up, I doubt this contract is enough to prevent the Giants from calling him up and playing him full-time.

I can almost guarantee you that will not happen. Posey could hit .400 and they MIGHT call him up...to play sporadically. Then, he'd hit about .240 over 25 ABs and which point he'd be sent right back down to Fresno because those 25 ABs clearly demonstrated that he's not ready for the majors.

How do I know this? Because this happens to every Giants prospect not named Eugenio Velez.

[path12]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Does that buy out any FA years, or just the rest of his arb ones? Great deal for the M's either way.

He had this year and next as arb years, so three on top of that. Fantastic deal.

I'm so glad to have a good GM.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Eh, it's just one year for relatively little money - if Posey is tearing it up, I doubt this contract is enough to prevent the Giants from calling him up and playing him full-time.

Did you forget that Bruce Bochy is the manager? There's no way in hell Posey sees the field. In the scheme of things, it's not a big deal. but then again neither were Renteria, Rowand, Garko, Roberts...

The team could have gotten the same (actually, likely more) production out of any number of different catchers that would be available for a fraction of the cost of Molina ($4.5 million with a rumored "Games Played" bonus incentive of $1.5 million at a certain threshold). Molina gets on base at an anemic pace, and when he DOES get on base, he's slower than just about anyone in the league. He was also incredibly whiny last season when questions of Posey came up and Molina's long-term position with the team.

In the end, I think that this [type of] signing gets a "free pass" because it's nothing like the enormity of the Zito contract. In fact, I'm beginning more and more to think that it's contracts like this, not contracts like Zito, that kill this team's chances to contend year in and year out.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

In fact, I'm beginning more and more to think that it's contracts like this, not contracts like Zito, that kill this team's chances to contend year in and year out.

No, it's the Zito deal. As much as you might not like Molina, he'll provide likely half the WAR that Zito does and at much less than half Zito's cost.

Yeah, maybe the Giants could've gone with a less "name" guy at C and saved a little bit of money, but are the Giants really only a couple million away from contending?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Did you forget that Bruce Bochy is the manager? There's no way in hell Posey sees the field. In the scheme of things, it's not a big deal. but then again neither were Renteria, Rowand, Garko, Roberts...

The team could have gotten the same (actually, likely more) production out of any number of different catchers that would be available for a fraction of the cost of Molina ($4.5 million with a rumored "Games Played" bonus incentive of $1.5 million at a certain threshold). Molina gets on base at an anemic pace, and when he DOES get on base, he's slower than just about anyone in the league. He was also incredibly whiny last season when questions of Posey came up and Molina's long-term position with the team.

In the end, I think that this [type of] signing gets a "free pass" because it's nothing like the enormity of the Zito contract. In fact, I'm beginning more and more to think that it's contracts like this, not contracts like Zito, that kill this team's chances to contend year in and year out.

I don't think it's the contract itself that hurts the team's chances at contention. It's the peripheral effects. Okay, you signed Aubrey Huff...but you signed Huff because you non-tendered Garko, for whom you traded one of your better pitching prospects. You've got a chain of events there.

As to the contracts themselves, the Zito-type deals are when the team is going out and chasing what they perceive to be an impact player. Sometimes that works out for you, sometimes you get Jason Schmidt. Sometimes it falls somewhere in between.

But your Molina deals, those deals done within the flexibility the team has in any given season, and insofar as they hurt the team, they do so by neutering the team's flexibility if other opportunities should become available, because the player has negligible trade value with a $4.5-6m contract attached unless the team eats part or all of it.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I really think that the Giants ARE just a couple of million away from contending - they were in the thick of the wildcard race until the end of the season last year. While bullpen stability comes and goes, the team has one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball, if not the very best. They have a nice young star in Pablo Sandoval to build around offensively, and with only a piece or two more, they can be strong enough offensively to fully expect to win every series they play in.

I think it's more of the thought process that goes into the "why" of a signing that is killing the Giants, not just the contract. In a vacuum, a 1-year, $4.5M contract for a veteran catcher so that your star prospect can have a little more time to develop is not only not bad, it's quite smart. The problem is that this no-bat catcher isn't going to bat 7th or 8th - he's batting 6th. And management of the team has shown that young players (unless they're named Velez) do not get playing time over veterans, even if the veterans are far past their prime and are displaying some of the worst offensive numbers in the entire league. So if the top prospect is ready by the middle of the year, he's going to have to either A) Ride the pine at the major league level, hurting his development by not giving him regular playing time, or B) Stew around in AAA, wrecking the competition that he is obviously superior to.

How much better, really, is Aubrey Huff going to be than Ryan Garko? Or, even cheaper, Travis Ishikawa? In the same vein, how about De La Rosa compared to Torres or Bowker (who was the Minor League Player of the Year last year)? Those three signings together, were the money pooled and spent in a different direction, could have resulted in an impact player at a different position, giving the Giants the offense that they so sorely need while simultaneously allowing the Giants to determine if their plethora of AAAA players contains any actual Major League talent. Instead, our replacement-level talent has been replaced by slightly better than replacement-level talent that may or may not be useful at all. Freddy Sanchez and Aubrey Huff are both getting old, and both had pretty terrible seasons last year.

[dawgfan]

I guess my point with Molina is that he is projected to contribute a WAR that would be valued greater than his $4.5M deal. If all of the Giants contracts were like that, they'd be in much better shape. Zito's contract is an egregious example of overpaying for what they're getting, and on a scale that has a much bigger impact on their yearly payroll than Molina's.

I won't dispute their reluctance to use promising prospects - I'm just commenting specifically on the Molina deal, and that "type" of deal. Deals that are below market value for what the player is expected to contribute are good deals.

[JPhillips]

I'm almost finished with Posnanski's The Machine. One item really stood out as never happening again. In game four of the 1975 World Series Louis Tiant threw an incredible 163 pitches!

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sparkle

I can almost guarantee you that will not happen. Posey could hit .400 and they MIGHT call him up...to play sporadically. Then, he'd hit about .240 over 25 ABs and which point he'd be sent right back down to Fresno because those 25 ABs clearly demonstrated that he's not ready for the majors.

How do I know this? Because this happens to every Giants prospect not named Eugenio Velez.

The Giants are fucking ridiculous; Brian Sabean gets a hard on for everyone over the age of 35, and with the Melonhead as manager...

[Bad-example]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

The Giants are fucking ridiculous; Brian Sabean gets a hard on for everyone over the age of 35, and with the Melonhead as manager...

Do the Giants actually have any players over 35 besides Molina?

[SackAttack]

Renteria and DeRosa are both 34. DeRosa will be 35 by Opening Day.

[Bad-example]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Renteria and DeRosa are both 34. DeRosa will be 35 by Opening Day.

Yeah, not the AARP club they had a few years ago. I don't have a problem with the moves this off season. DeRosa and Huff are fair bets to improve their numbers from last year. No ugly Renteria-type deals. Huff and Molina are almost certainly bargains.

Some more pitching (and a second position to get Posey more at bats) would be nice but I don't see any reason the Giants shouldn't compete for the division title next season.

[RainMaker]

DeRosa is an underated player for an NL team. He can play virtually every position besides CF which gives the team a ton of flexibility.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Here's what I don't understand about this offseason for the Giants. They have their two top prospects knocking on the door of the majors. One is a 22 year old former Golden Spikes winner. He hits .325/.416/.531 in his first full minor league season, jumping from A to AAA with little to no drop off in his numbers. The other is a 19 year old starting pitcher who wasn't even allowed to throw a breaking ball in high school. He puts up ridiculous numbers in Low A in 2008, and almost as ridiculous of an ERA in A and AA in 2009. However, his K/9 drops from 10.4 in '08 to 6.3 in '09. This coincides with losing 3-4 MPH on his fastball. Now, who are the Giants most comfortable with having on their Opening Day roster? Why, the 19 year old pitcher, of course! Toss him right into the rotation! We don't know why he lost velocity last year, and frankly, we don't care!

As for Mr. Golden Spikes, have fun in Fresno, kid. We got our fat, slow, .285 OBP (worst in the majors!) catcher back instead. And, since our manager LOVES our fat, slow, .285 OBP (worst in the majors!) catcher, we suggest you stock up on sunscreen. Those Central Valley summers can get HOOOOOOOOOT!

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I guess my point with Molina is that he is projected to contribute a WAR that would be valued greater than his $4.5M deal. If all of the Giants contracts were like that, they'd be in much better shape. Zito's contract is an egregious example of overpaying for what they're getting, and on a scale that has a much bigger impact on their yearly payroll than Molina's.

I won't dispute their reluctance to use promising prospects - I'm just commenting specifically on the Molina deal, and that "type" of deal. Deals that are below market value for what the player is expected to contribute are good deals.

I have to admit, I didn't realize he had a decent WAR projected this season.

[Logan]

Piniero to the Angels: 2 years, $16 million.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I have to admit, I didn't realize he had a decent WAR projected this season.

Well, "decent" is a relative term. According to FanGraphs, his CHONE projection works out to 1.4 WAR and his fans projection works out to 1.6 WAR. Those seem reasonable, considering he was 1.8 last year and 2.9 the year before that.

At 1.4 WAR he'd be worth roughly $6.2M (though I wonder if that formula might have to get adjusted downward slightly with recent signings).

My main point being, it doesn't seem like his $4.5M contract is out of line - it might be a slight bargain relative to his worth.

[JS19]

Originally Posted by Logan

Piniero to the Angels: 2 years, $16 million.

I'm starting to get the feeling the Mets are becoming the Bills of the NFL. Granted, they did get the "big name" guy in Bay, but Molina turns them down (maybe a blessing in disguise) and now Piniero? Who knows what kind of money they were offering him, but he is somebody I was hoping they would get.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Resigned Jason Bay: "Well, I'm A Met Now" | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Well, "decent" is a relative term. According to FanGraphs, his CHONE projection works out to 1.4 WAR and his fans projection works out to 1.6 WAR. Those seem reasonable, considering he was 1.8 last year and 2.9 the year before that.

At 1.4 WAR he'd be worth roughly $6.2M (though I wonder if that formula might have to get adjusted downward slightly with recent signings).

My main point being, it doesn't seem like his $4.5M contract is out of line - it might be a slight bargain relative to his worth.

Well, 2 things here (and you're a smart guy, you know this stuff):

1) WAR is a value of the wins on the free-agent market; taking it to its logical extreme, if one is paying ~350M rather than 360M for a 90 win team, you're in the positive - but we accept that this is patently ridiculous.

2) WAR's replacement level, is like, me. This is a pretty common complaint about it, and adding an effective discount to it means that its probably not a bargain.

3) Opportunity cost. That $4.5M could have been spent much more effectively on a 5th SP, another bat, and so forth. In fact, the Giants have spent $3M on Aubrey Huff, $4.5M on Molina, $6M on Derosa, $6M on Freddy Sanchez - that's money that could have spent on an actual good player, instead of the usual collection of mediocrity. This team is run by a front office too asinine to appreciate statistics.

[Bad-example]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

3) Opportunity cost. That $4.5M could have been spent much more effectively on a 5th SP, another bat, and so forth. In fact, the Giants have spent $3M on Aubrey Huff, $4.5M on Molina, $6M on Derosa, $6M on Freddy Sanchez - that's money that could have spent on an actual good player, instead of the usual collection of mediocrity. This team is run by a front office too asinine to appreciate statistics.

Just curious which FA hitter(s) you feel they should have signed instead?

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Bad-example

Just curious which FA hitter(s) you feel they should have signed instead?

Good catch - that was kind of a rant.

Nick Johnson is the bleeding obvious one - they gave ~$4.5M to Molina, but can't give $6M to Nick? Otherwise Johnny Damon on a 1 year deal at $8M (throwing a number out there - he's not getting 2 years at this point) definitely makes more sense than Huff + Molina, especially since Posey is a better player than Molina. Alternatively, Adrian Beltre (the deal he signed with Boston) would have been great, because his defense is mind-blowing and he was particularly punished by Safeco. Mike Cameron at 2/15.5 is another guy who's better (heck, put him in RF or move Rowand to LF or Canada) value. Ryan Church just signed for ~$2M and is a better offensive player than anyone the Giants signed.

There's a 100 options, and the Giants consistently opt for mediocrity - I see no evidence that Brian Sabean is learning, but instead getting progressively worse.

[Bad-example]

Most free agent hitters are going to want a larger contract to play at Mays Field. It just isn't viewed as a good place to go to make a salary drive. Just because a player signs a deal with another club does not mean he was available to the Giants at the same price. Beltre, Cameron, Johnson...those guys signed deals with elite big money clubs. SF wasn't going to outbid those guys, and if they did the final numbers would be significantly higher.

No albatross contracts, just reasonable short term deals. I think Sabean has done ok this winter.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I think the moral of the story is that with current management, we better hope that a ridiculously lopsided trade lands in the Giants' laps and/or we get a few more offensive prospects to go from "unknown" to "stud" a la Pablo Sandoval, or we're not going to have an offense.

[Karlifornia]

I don't mind the numbers of the Molina contract, but I just don't enjoy watching him play baseball. I don't enjoy watching his at bats. I feel a sense of dread every time he steps to the plate. He does good things sometimes, and he can still make things happen in 2-strike counts, but I'm not looking forward to another season of him.

[Mr. Sparkle]

The Giants actually did offer Nick Johnson more than the Yankees, he just chose to sign with New York. Can't say that I blame him, with that lineup and the HR bonanza that is right field.