Werewolf XXXIII: To Crown a King 2 (Game Over)

[Barkeep49]

We'll we're already down a player with Dodger dropping out. Schmidty said he'd join, but isn't free until Friday. Sooooooooo have to see. I hope he pops back in.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

Can we really rule out bulletsponge being a noble leader? And thats why St. Cronin didn't get a message? I know he denies it, but when are people ever 100% truthful in WW games?

We can't rule out that he's a noble leader, no... only st.cronin has said that bulletsponge is not his leader, and only st.cronin has made a clear an unequivocal claim that he did not receive a message from his leader. (So if he is a leader, then st.cronin would have to be lying about something... which is not outside the realm of possibility, especially in this case.)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

We'll we're already down a player with Dodger dropping out. Schmidty said he'd join, but isn't free until Friday. Sooooooooo have to see. I hope he pops back in.

He being qwikshot.

[Barkeep49]

So much confusion. After only a few short hours after putting bulletsponge in jail suddenly there is a rush to conclude that maybe he wasn't such a bad guy after all. Much to his horror, though not that of the guards who thought the man was crazy after all of the lascivious remarks he made towards them, bulletsponge is released from the jail at the end of the day.

BrianD Free bulletsponge
Anxiety Free bulletsponge

King Free bulletsponge
Hoopsguy Free bulletsponge
Blade6119 Free bulletsponge
st.cronin Free bulletsponge

RealDeal Noexecute
Sndvls noexecute
Chief Rum noexecute
Lathum Free bulletsponge
Mr. Wednesday Free bulletsponge
Fouts noexecute
Greyroofoo noexecute
Lonestargirl Free bulletsponge

Final Tally:
Free 9 -- Brian, Anxiety, king, hoops, Blade, st.cronin, lathum, mr.wednesday, lonestar
No execute 5 -- Real, sndvls, chief, fouts, grey

No votes: ntn, dodgerchick, qwikshot, wvu (NOTE: Dodgerchick's team will not be penalized for her no vote)

On the otherhand, who to place in the jail proves to be a little more tricky, but not by much. While he was spotted here and there, no one really heard from qwikshot today and so he is summarily found and frog marched off to jail.

Blade6119 st.cronin
King Lathum
st.cronin Fouts
Sndvls st.cronin
BrianD Qwikshot
Lathum King
Mr. Wednesday King
Chief Rum qwikshot
Hoopsguy qwikshot
Ntndeacon Real
Greyroofoo qwikshot
Lonestargirl qwikshot
Anxiety Greyroofoo
RealDeal King
Fouts qwikshot

Fouts 1 - stcronin
Grey 1 - Anxiety
King 3 - lathum, mr.wednesday, real
Qwik 6 - brian, cheif, hoops, grey, lonestar, fouts
Real 1 - ntn
Cronin 2 - Blade, sndvls

No vote - Dodger, qwik, wvu

Despite the importance of the day people seemed distracted. Will that continue tomorrow? Will there be a dead body in the morning? The people of the kingdom anxiously await the answer

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Much to his horror, though not that of the guards who thought the man was crazy after all of the luvacious remarks he made towards them, bulletsponge is released from the jail at the end of the day.

Luvacious??? LOL

Did you mean lascivious?

(I'll admit, I checked dictionary.com before posting... )

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Luvacious??? LOL

Did you mean lascivious?

(I'll admit, I checked dictionary.com before posting... )

I did. Thanks.

[bulletsponge]

woot im free! now to go on a revenge fueled rampage!

[WVUFAN]

That was quick. I was so busy getting indignant on the Werewolf moving threads that I didn't post in the game this week. :-(

[hoopsguy]

I'm somewhat concerned about disappearing overnight and I really don't want to risk dying while holding onto a bunch of potential information.

Here are people that I'm fairly confident are not assassins that are not in my faction:

BrianD, Blade, Cronin, Blade, MrW, Bulletsponge, Fouts, Dodgerchick (or, hopefully not, her replacement)

There are varying levels of confidence here among these players. I'm not going to distinguish them tonight, but may tomorrow depending on how actions proceed.

That list, plus me, represents 9 of the 19 players in the game. This list, coupled with my personal trust list, means that I will be looking at a fairly small group of players heading into tomorrow.

[Greyroofoo]

also another question,

do we definitely know how many factions there are? Can you tell us barkeep?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Vote No Execute
I understand how Brian's relationship of bullet has lead everyone to cast ballots for freeing him, but I am not completely convinced. Which is why the No Execute Vote.

I am very unsure who to send to jail. There are only a few that I have on my trust list at this point. I have no real leads on who our assassins are. So this is still somewhat random
Vote Jail Real Deal

Barkeep I did vote to not execute as seen in this post, it is post 569 I think.

[LoneStarGirl]

Okay guys, I dont want you to think I am not paying attention to the game. I am working two jobs this week as I am quiting one and starting another job, teaching at the high school. I am way busy and totally exhaused. Starting Friday you will see a lot more posts from me and I will assure you that I am not an assasin!

[LoneStarGirl]

My question is, if Dodgerchick gets out of the game, will her replacement fill her shoes? Or will he get a whole new role?

[hoopsguy]

That person would assume her role.

I'm hoping DC is with us again tomorrow if her concerns are only limited to in-game play. I suspect she is being way overly self-critical of her play.

[LoneStarGirl]

I honestly don't see waht the big deal is about her revealing who one person is in her faction? That indicates to everybody she is a good guy right? ISn't that the point?

[kingfc22]

I feel fairly good about blade, brain, bullet, chief rum, cronin and dodgerchick. I think I have been able to link those players with the way they have been posting.

I would like to believe that Hoops is good, but I haven't noticed anything linking him to another player directly.

I think it is in our best interest to execute qwik tomorrow so that we can get a pt. total breakdown and see where we should go from there.

Just my .02

[Barkeep49]

Once again the night passes, easily for some of you, not so easily for others.

As the day comes and the group assembles, there is yet again no one missing. That is most peculiar indeed. People are questioned, but they are sticking to their story. There are definitely assassins here. So the question becomes, why are the assassins seemingly not killing anyone?

[LoneStarGirl]

What the hell does that mean? No execution again? Does this mean Qwik is an assasin? I agree with King, we need to execute him so we can see how the points tally.

VOTE EXECUTE QWIKSHOT

[st.cronin]

lol @ my morning message

[bulletsponge]

wow i thought for sure Brian or myself would have gotten a knife in the back last night

[hoopsguy]

Definitely not sure what to make of the lack of night activity so far.

I'm a little nervous about the first vote in for execute coming from someone who is pretty untrusted right now (Lonestargirl).

So, I'll start today off with my jail vote.

VOTE JAIL LONESTARGIRL

[Lathum]

My thoughts were right there with hoops. I am really suspiscous of lonestar girl and king jumping all over qwik so early. I think we pretty much established yesterday that just because someone is in jail and there is no night kill that doesn't mean they are an assasin. I may be out for a while today but I think it is strange that 2 of the most quiet players have jumped out within a few minutes of each other to try and lynch qwik.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, fwiw I don't think that LSG putting an execute vote out there is wrong. But given that assassins want to attract negative points and will get more for first vote/lynch vote on a wrong jailing I'm basically hedging a bet here.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

lol @ my morning message

Mine was challenging as well. I'm hoping my teammates have recognized me by now because I have nothing to add in regard to last night's message.

[Lathum]

ok, i will probably be back so this is a placeholder for now

vote jail kingfc22

the way he has played him game is odd and I know he is not in my group of trusted 2.

[Lathum]

hoops. I didn't play in the first game so I am a little confused about tje point system but tel me this.

Is it possible that knowing peoples points this early could be a negative for us? At this point in the game the lynch/jail victims are a crapshoot so more likely then not an innocent is being targeted which could cause the points to lead us on a wild goose chase?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, the assassins know if we have an assassin in jail. So they could be looking to optimize their points with key votes. It is hard to predict the lynch vote, but very easy to cast the first vote.

As far as knowing points being a negative, I don't think so. It at least lets us know where we stand. If we do execute Qwik today then the points are going to be a little messy because they would include the information on Bulletsponge - both the process of jailing and freeing him, as well as other Day 1/2 votes. So it won't be easy to initially piece this information together. But I would rather have information than not have information - deep thought, huh?

[Lathum]

that makes sense, it just seems like it would be to easy for the assasians to vote for each other at some point, or non execute, etc... to try and gain a favorable point total thus blending in.

Maybe I am missing something, for now I am gonna sit back and see how it works out.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Is it possible that knowing peoples points this early could be a negative for us?

Knowing points is never a negative. Particularly with bulletsponge having been jailed and then freed, we would get information about his status at the time, PLUS we would get information on the status of the people who cast the "key" votes for him and for whoever (perhaps qwikshot) is executed.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, the assassins know if we have an assassin in jail. So they could be looking to optimize their points with key votes. It is hard to predict the lynch vote, but very easy to cast the first vote.

As far as knowing points being a negative, I don't think so. It at least lets us know where we stand. If we do execute Qwik today then the points are going to be a little messy because they would include the information on Bulletsponge - both the process of jailing and freeing him, as well as other Day 1/2 votes. So it won't be easy to initially piece this information together. But I would rather have information than not have information - deep thought, huh?

I'm also not clear on how the voting analysis works, but I'm expecting that we won't get a whole lot of information from the points. If we execute a noble, we get negative points as do the assassins. If we execute an assassin, we get positive points as do the assassins. It would seem that most people will have the same general scores except for those that didn't jump on the bandwagon. It would seem that they would be the ones to stand out most...

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Lathum

that makes sense, it just seems like it would be to easy for the assasians to vote for each other at some point, or non execute, etc... to try and gain a favorable point total thus blending in.

Assassins get favorable vote totals by voting for nobles. The "main" points accumulate the same for everyone, with the assassins trying to rack up a negative total of high magnitude (vote for nobles, particularly "special" ones) and us trying to rack up a positive total of high magnitude (vote for assassins).

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Definitely not sure what to make of the lack of night activity so far.

It eliminates one of the possibilities from night 1 (the delayed kill).

It's becoming more likely they've hit a fast talker, which is bad news for everyone.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I'm also not clear on how the voting analysis works, but I'm expecting that we won't get a whole lot of information from the points. If we execute a noble, we get negative points as do the assassins. If we execute an assassin, we get positive points as do the assassins. It would seem that most people will have the same general scores except for those that didn't jump on the bandwagon. It would seem that they would be the ones to stand out most...

When the posts are totaled, it will look something like this:

Faction A: -3.5
Faction B: -4.5
Faction C: -0.5
Faction D: +1.5
Faction E: -2
Faction F: +2

We should be able to calculate the points earned by each person pretty easily - only possible complicator is the double-count for faction leaders on execute/free decisions.

If you know the membership of your faction, in its entirety, it should be very easy to identify them right away.

From there, you extrapolate the memberships of other factions based on what you think you know, and then what fits.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, any changes in players overnight? Is Dodgerchick still playing or do you get to post a "PING: NEED ONE FOR WEREWOLF" thread in GC?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

When the posts are totaled, it will look something like this:

Faction A: -3.5
Faction B: -4.5
Faction C: -0.5
Faction D: +1.5
Faction E: -2
Faction F: +2

We should be able to calculate the points earned by each person pretty easily - only possible complicator is the double-count for faction leaders on execute/free decisions.

If you know the membership of your faction, in its entirety, it should be very easy to identify them right away.

From there, you extrapolate the memberships of other factions based on what you think you know, and then what fits.

I see, that complicates things a bit. I was assuming individual point totals. For counting purposes, do the assassins count as a "faction", or will there be an "assassin" entry?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

It eliminates one of the possibilities from night 1 (the delayed kill).

It's becoming more likely they've hit a fast talker, which is bad news for everyone.

I would agree with all of this. I just wonder if night 2 was a delayed kill, or if they hit another fast talker?

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

What the hell does that mean? No execution again? Does this mean Qwik is an assasin? I agree with King, we need to execute him so we can see how the points tally.

VOTE EXECUTE QWIKSHOT

WHOA!!! Let's everyone be cool...I'm like Mr. Green in the movie "Clue".

"I didn't do it!"

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I see, that complicates things a bit. I was assuming individual point totals. For counting purposes, do the assassins count as a "faction", or will there be an "assassin" entry?

I think the assassins will be denoted separately. They are earning points as their own faction, with their own target total to trigger a win.

[ntndeacon]

My guess Brian, is that there will be an assasin's entry. One possibility that did not come up in the first day , but we might want to discuss it for today is the possibility of an attempt on the Lucky Noble.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Definitely not sure what to make of the lack of night activity so far.

I'm a little nervous about the first vote in for execute coming from someone who is pretty untrusted right now (Lonestargirl).

So, I'll start today off with my jail vote.

VOTE JAIL LONESTARGIRL

To be fair, there is a serious incentive to be the first to jump on someone.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

My guess Brian, is that there will be an assasin's entry. One possibility that did not come up in the first day , but we might want to discuss it for today is the possibility of an attempt on the Lucky Noble.

If that happened, the person that survived should have no fear letting everyone know about it. I would expect that info to be dropped before we even had a chance to think about it.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

To be fair, there is a serious incentive to be the first to jump on someone.

Only if you are right.

[ntndeacon]

Another possibility that kinda scare me is the idea that one of us have already been framed to look like an assasin. Now it may be that not all of those roles are in this game, but It seems possible from the reading of the rules that that could happen.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by BrianD

If that happened, the person that survived should have no fear letting everyone know about it. I would expect that info to be dropped before we even had a chance to think about it.

That iswhy idid not mention it yesterday. It still could have happened today, as not everyone has probably left any PM's left them last night.

[ntndeacon]

Dola, I mean not everyone has READ their PM's (I bet)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

To be fair, there is a serious incentive to be the first to jump on someone.

Absolutely correct.
1. I did say that I don't disagree with the vote, but seeing it come from the 40% of the game that I don't have a strong read on made me suspicious
2. Thus I "hedged the bet" by putting a vote on that person (LSG) for jail
3. I'm also putting myself first in line for points on LSG, for better or worse, when scores are updated

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

That iswhy idid not mention it yesterday. It still could have happened today, as not everyone has probably left any PM's left them last night.

That is very possible. Participation around here tends to be spread out throughout the day, so anything could still come out. It just really seems odd (statistically) that nobody has died yet.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by BrianD

That is very possible. Participation around here tends to be spread out throughout the day, so anything could still come out. It just really seems odd (statistically) that nobody has died yet.

yea. makes me wonder why. are the assassins spying on us? are there assassins at all? do the asshats need a majority to agree on whom to kill?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

WHOA!!! Let's everyone be cool...I'm like Mr. Green in the movie "Clue".

"I didn't do it!"

Qwik, so far we haven't had anyone come forward to vouch for you yesterday or today. You have not given us much commentary at all to dissuade a vote for execute.

So - speak up. Preferrably sooner rather than later.

[st.cronin]

JAIL ANXIETY

Not sure where to go today. Has anybody any information on what's happened at night?

EXECUTE QWIK

Again, to see who comes to his defense and how.