NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[QuikSand]

Well, the Dolphins' streak of playing vulnerable QBs in the back half of this season continues. Their defense should be pretty vexing for Ian Book.

Definitely in play for them to come into the final week of the season with a win-and-in situation for the playoffs. Last year that's where they ended up... the year on balance felt better than this one did, but the team should feel good about digging out from the terrible hole.

I'm still down to fire the GM, keep the head coach.

[Atocep]

It's kind of crazy that Ole Miss had AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Dawson Knox and Elijah Moore in its receiving corps at the same time.

[Solecismic]

The urgency of tonight's game is greatly reduced with playoff expansion.

Ian Book, huh. Another middle-round rookie that ordinarily would never see the field. Other 133rd overall picks to play QB: Jarrett Stidham in 2019, who has yet to start a game, Gary Hogeboom in 1980 and Chuck Fusina in 1979.

Hogeboom had an OK career, though his first significant action wasn't until the 1982 NFC Championship game, when he relieved an injured Danny White and couldn't keep pace with Joe Theismann, who ended up winning his only Super Bowl title two weeks later when the then-skins defense absolutely destroyed David Woodley..

[MIJB#19]

D'oh.

The NFL website claims the Dallas Cowboys qualified for the playoffs, while I was pretty sure they clinched it last weekend already. Yeah, that's embarrassing (to me), I somehow misread the SOV situation between Dallas and Philadelphia, as the Eagles can technically still catch up if Denver, Washington, Detroit and NY Jets together win 11 games more than LA Chargers, NY Giants, Minnesota and New England do.

My mistake in the Rams scenario I posted is minor, as I mentioned a potential Vikings loss/tie there in the LA Rams loss scenario, which can't happen since that would imply the Vikings would win in week 16 vs the Rams already. (Ugh.)

I do stand by my observation of the New England scenario though, I don't see how Indianapolis losing this week helps New England's case, because they'd still be less than 2 wins behind or 2 wins and better tie-breakers behind.

[QuikSand]

Projected 2022 #NFL Cap Space
Full Tracker: https://t.co/l1tq86sTj0 pic.twitter.com/kbDwh8vbiZ

— Spotrac (@spotrac) December 24, 2021

Dolphins in a position to be buyers next season. Wonder if they have seen enough from Tua to feel like they should be in "go for it while we have a good young QB" mode, as is now the standard NFL front office play.

[Thomkal]

Saints might not have much of a roster next season...

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Projected 2022 #NFL Cap Space
Full Tracker: https://t.co/l1tq86sTj0 pic.twitter.com/kbDwh8vbiZ

— Spotrac (@spotrac) December 24, 2021

Dolphins in a position to be buyers next season. Wonder if they have seen enough from Tua to feel like they should be in "go for it while we have a good young QB" mode, as is now the standard NFL front office play.

TBH, the number of times Miami has ‘won the offseason’ in pre-season*, only for that to be emphatically shown not to be the case once they start actually playing, I have no faith that they will invest the cap space wisely

* Case in point: Will Fuller was widely seen to be one of, if not the best FA contracts this season. $2.5m per catch suggests otherwise

[albionmoonlight]

Last Saints rookie QB to win a game was apparently in 1981.

The only silver lining is that Book can't be that much worse than Taysom with 9 working fingers.

The story on him is that he looked good for a mid-round rookie in camp. But a good looking mid-round rookie is still a mid-round rookie. And, as Q pointed out, the Dolphins' D knows how to make shitty QBs pay for being shitty QBs.

Maybe the Saints win this one 6-0 instead of 9-0 :-)

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Miami ... I have no faith that they will invest the cap space wisely

Agreed. I'm on record demanding the head of the current GM. The "they" I hope I'm referencing is a new regime. It feels like a very attractive situation to step into as a GM.

[JPhillips]

The Bengals are in a great position to fix the O-line and really take off from this year's success. They have multi-year deals now with QB, WR, RB, DE, and CB. They need to sign Bates to an extension and Apple has been a surprise and should be re-signed, but they should have 30 mil or more to upgrade with.

Will they do that though?

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The Bengals are in a great position to fix the O-line and really take off from this year's success. They have multi-year deals now with QB, WR, RB, DE, and CB. They need to sign Bates to an extension and Apple has been a surprise and should be re-signed, but they should have 30 mil or more to upgrade with.

Will they do that though?

As a fan, I have the feeling that they will go the way of the Reds and ... what's the phrase? ... "Align our payroll to our resources".

[albionmoonlight]

It may be that the Saints made a phone call to feel things out, and it did not work out. But I don’t see how you sign Blake Bortles as your emergency backup QB when Phil Rivers is sitting out there.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

It may be that the Saints made a phone call to feel things out, and it did not work out. But I don’t see how you sign Blake Bortles as your emergency backup QB when Phil Rivers is sitting out there.

Of course, anytime I hear Blake Bortles name, this is all I can think of:



SI

[Solecismic]

If I was playing a game, and...

- Lost my starting QB to a season-ending injury.

- Was informed that my backup QB was suddenly unavailable because he tested positive for a virus.

- Was informed that my emergency practice squad QB was suddenly unavailable because he tested positive for a virus.

- Had to plan to start my fourth-round QB from the most recent draft, who couldn't beat out the emergency practice squad QB who was 0-4 in his emergency starts for my 7-7 team.

- Had to sign another emergency backup QB, a guy who was the third pick in the entire draft not that long ago, but can't even stick on anyone's practice squad today.

- Potentially will see the game canceled anyway, since this virus is doubling at a rate that will consume the entire Solar System by the time the Super Bowl rolls around.

...

I think I would return it and give it a one-star review on Yelp.

[Atocep]

Tomorrow the Bears are going to make every team regret not trading for Super Bowl Champion Nick Foles before the deadline.

[cuervo72]

RGIII still available?

[NobodyHere]

Well dang, I really didn't expect the Colts to beat both the Patriots and the Cardinals back to back. This might be a team that could make a strong playoff run if they can stay reasonably healthy.

Now if only all the Colts would get the covid vaccine.

[Thomkal]

I have zero confidence that the Cards will win another game this season. Even their kicker choked tonight

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

It may be that the Saints made a phone call to feel things out, and it did not work out. But I don’t see how you sign Blake Bortles as your emergency backup QB when Phil Rivers is sitting out there.

I assume Phil Rivers isn't interested in showing up to be a backup to a rookie. It actually sounds like Drew Brees gave it more serious thought and was close to doing it as an emergency favor thing to Payton & the organization he cares about.

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Last Saints rookie QB to win a game was apparently in 1981.

The only silver lining is that Book can't be that much worse than Taysom with 9 working fingers.

The story on him is that he looked good for a mid-round rookie in camp. But a good looking mid-round rookie is still a mid-round rookie. And, as Q pointed out, the Dolphins' D knows how to make shitty QBs pay for being shitty QBs.

Maybe the Saints win this one 6-0 instead of 9-0 :-)

As an ND fan I've always really liked Book. Completely get why he wasn't a 1st round pick and teams didn't want him as a potential franchise QB but the dude is accurate, limits turnovers/dumb plays, has surprisingly good mobility (a.k.a. can run well for a white QB), and just wins games (or I guess more accurately doesn't lose them for you if he's paired with a good defense). 49/9 TD/INT ratio his last 2 years at ND with 13 rushing TD's & close to 1,000 yards on the ground, and those ND teams weren't exactly loaded at receiver (though they did have pretty good O-lines). He always seemed like a great option to be a 10 year backup/fringe starter like a Colt McCoy, and while the sheer amount of Saints injuries hurts this is still a pretty great situation for him to come into - it's a .500 team tied for the last playoff spot with a great defense and 3 very winnable games lined up. Siemian and Hill will be off the COVID list by next week, but Hill will still have his finger injury & Siemian was so bad I don't think it would take much success from Book to have Payton go "ehh, why not stick with Book the next 2 games?"

People are going crazy over guys like Heinicke & Tyler Huntley "coming out of nowhere" and Book is absolutely on that level. He was never "the star" at ND, and I know ND is a lightning rod for hot takes, but the dude was a 3 year starter for a top 10 team & played in 2 CFP Semi's vs the eventual national champion, I don't understand how he seemed to fly so far under the radar and never got any respect.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Well dang, I really didn't expect the Colts to beat both the Patriots and the Cardinals back to back. This might be a team that could make a strong playoff run if they can stay reasonably healthy.

Now if only all the Colts would get the covid vaccine.

If it means anything, as a longtime Colts fan, there's a 50/50 chance that they win out or they drop the next two games to the teams they're supposed to beat.

(I let myself get optimistic and *hoped* for a 3-1 over the last 4 games, figuring they'd lose to either Arizona or New England. Winning both of those games has me in a bit of a panic.)

[spleen1015]

I was waiting for the inevitable Wentz INT in the 4th quarter and it never happened.

[Atocep]

Based on what I woke up to this morning it's going to be a very snowy Bears/Seahawks game

[molson]

James Robinson survived the Urban experience, was finally setup to show his stuff the last few weeks, now tears his Achilles.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Kiiinda thinking Jake Fromm's first career start might also be his last career start.

[Thomkal]

So I guess Thanks Rams? Beating the Vikings gives the Cards a playoff spot. Yeah?

[Thomkal]

Ha reading comments on Twitter, fellow Cards fans not happy either

[Brian Swartz]

Huh. The Lions lost a close game. Go figure.

[NobodyHere]

Well you wouldn't want their draft position to get any worse right?

[bob]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Kiiinda thinking Jake Fromm's first career start might also be his last career start.

25 yards on 17 attempts is impressive in its own way.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Kiiinda thinking Jake Fromm's first career start might also be his last career start.

As bad as that stat line looks, I actually think Mike Glennon going 17 for 27 for 93 yards is just as bad, and maybe worse.

[Solecismic]

Not sure how it's possible, but the Giants' offensive scheme is so bad that they've managed to make a talent like Saquon Barkley look like a bust. Though in his case, injuries have had a lot to do with it as well. You wonder if a new coach could do wonders there, or a good OL acquisition or two.

You watch Patrick Mahomes work as he has in the first half against Pittsburgh and you wonder how the Chiefs ever lose a game.

[spleen1015]

In situations like that, I don't necessarily blame the players. I think some of these play callers are complete dumbasses.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Not sure how it's possible, but the Giants' offensive scheme is so bad that they've managed to make a talent like Saquon Barkley look like a bust. Though in his case, injuries have had a lot to do with it as well. You wonder if a new coach could do wonders there, or a good OL acquisition or two.

You watch Patrick Mahomes work as he has in the first half against Pittsburgh and you wonder how the Chiefs ever lose a game.

Saw this is a tweet reply yesterday, Jonathan Taylor is what Saquon was supposed to be in the NFL.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Saw this is a tweet reply yesterday, Jonathan Taylor is what Saquon was supposed to be in the NFL.

Player 1: 261-1307-11 (5.0 ypc), 91-721-4 (121 targets)
Player 2: 232-1169-11 (5.0 ypc), 36-299-1 (39 targets)

Both of these were rookie seasons. So, yeah, it's a good comparison. RB is the only non-ST position where rookies often come into the league as good as they'll ever be. But Taylor is MVP level right now, if RBs can be considered MVPs. I don't know if Barkley can be at that level again. Sure makes you want to avoid picking an RB in the first round.

[Atocep]

Damiere Byrd with the catch of his life.

[Coffee Warlord]

Big Dick Nick doing it.

[CrimsonFox]

man just caught some of bears/seahawks and fuck refs in general. just fuck them.

[MIJB#19]

Weird how tie-breakers can make it such that the Ravens, despite their loss combined with victories of most of their rivals in the wild card race, move up from #8 to #7 seed.

Also extraordinary that the strength of victory after all clinches the division for the Dallas Cowboys. It was setting up for it to happen (I somehow misread that they hadn't clinched that tie-breaker just yet), but still funny how results in games not involving the Cowboys and Eagles locked it up.

[Atocep]

Next week the Bears and Giants play in one of the most meaningless games in NFL history.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Well you wouldn't want their draft position to get any worse right?

I think they're just about tied into the #2 spot now.

[SirFozzie]

Adam Schefter on Twitter: "Former Alabama and current WFT teammates Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne:… "

Um.

Oh dear.

When people wanted the WFT to show some "Fighting Spirit", I don't think they meant this way.

[Solecismic]

When you have a 4th and 9 near midfield right before half, you're down, 35-7, and a loss reduces your waning playoff chances to life-support, and you punt... that's not fighting spirit.

6-8 teams should not be thinking playoffs anyway, but no one can look at the WFT right now and say, "you know, this would be a great rematch for the pivotal 2-7 wild-card game next month."

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Well you wouldn't want their draft position to get any worse right?

Heh.

I'm not a fan of overly concerning myself with that. Particularly when there's not someone they absolutely need to draft at #1.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

but still funny how results in games not involving the Cowboys and Eagles locked it up.

and the games were in the AFC, not NFC

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs scenarios for week 17

Current seeding order

	AFC				NFC
1	Kansas City	11-4		1	Green Bay	12-3
2	Tennessee	10-5		2	Dallas	11-4
3	Cincinnati	9-6		3	LA Rams	11-4
4	Buffalo	9-6		4	Tampa Bay	11-4
5	Indianapolis	9-6		5	Arizona	10-5
6	New England	9-6		6	San Francisco	8-7
7	Baltimore	8-7		7	Philadelphia	8-7
8	LA Chargers	8-7		8	New Orleans	7-7
9	Las Vegas	8-7		9	Minnesota	7-8
10	Pittsburgh	7-7-1		10	Atlanta	7-8
11	Miami	7-7		11	Washington	6-9
12	Cleveland	7-8		12	Carolina	5-10
13	Denver	7-8		13	Chicago	5-10
14	NY Jets	4-11		14	Seattle	5-10
15	Houston	4-11		15	NY Giants	4-11
16	Jacksonville	2-13		16	Detroit	2-12-1

Tie-breaker situation per division

AFC East tie-breaker situation
Buffalo currently leads ahead of New England on division record (4-1 vs 3-2). They end up tied in that as well if Buffalo goes W-L and New England L-W in the last 2 games, in which case common games will be up next (tied situation in this scenario) and then eventually New England has conference record to win the division. As a result, neither Buffalo or New England can clinch in week 17.
Buffalo will beat Miami in a 2-way tie at 10-7 or 9-7-1 each on heado-to-head.
Miami will beat New England in a 2-way tie at 10-7 or 9-7-1 on head-to-head.
In a 3-way tie between Buffalo, New England and Miami, Buffalo will win the division on head-to-head between the three teams.

AFC North tie-breaker situation
Cincinnati has head-to-head over Baltimore and Pittsburgh in each 2-way and also in this 3-way.
If Cincinnati ends up tied with Cleveland (at 9-8 each) in a 2-way, Cleveland will be ahead on head-to-head.
A 2-way tie between Baltimore and Pittsburgh will always go to Pittsburgh on head-to-head.
A 2-way tie between Baltimore and Cleveland will go to Cleveland on division record.
A 2-way tie between Pittsburgh and Cleveland will go to Pittsburgh if they tie the h-t-h clash in week 17, or to Cleveland if Cleveland wins the h-t-h clash in week 17.
A 3-way between Cincinnati, Baltimore and Cleveland will go to Cleveland on head-to-head.
A 3-way between Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Cleveland is impossible.
A 3-way between Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cleveland (for 2nd place in the division) will go to Pittsburgh on head-to-head record between the 3.
A 4-way tie is no longer mathematically possible.

AFC South
Tennessee has tie-breakers over Indianapolis on head-to-head.

AFC West
Kansas City clinched the division.
LA Chargers will have tie-breakers over Las Vegas on head-to-head, or if LA Chargers goes W-L and Las Vegas L-W on common games. Denver will have tie-breakers over LA Chargers on head-to-head. Las Vegas will have tie-breakers over Denver on head-to-head.
In a 3-way between LA Chargers, Las Vegas and Denver, if they end up 9-8 each, it will go down to a 2-way between LA Chargers and Denver on division record (which then goes to Denver). If they end up 8-8-1 each, Las Vegas will have head-to-head tie-breaker.

NFC East
Dallas clinched the division.
Washington will have tie-breakers over Philadelphia on division record.


NFC North
Tie-breakers between Minnesota and Chicago at 7-10 each will be irrelevant for the playoffs, as the last wild card will go to a team with at minimum a 7-9-1 record.

NFC South
Tie-breakers between New Orleans vs Atlanta will go to Atlanta if Atlanta wins or ties the h-t-h clash in week 18, or if New Orleans wins the h-t-h- clash in week 18 to New Orleans on division record.
Carolina is eliminated as the last wild card will go to a at minimum a 7-9-1 team, this a result of the Atlanta at New Orleans game in week 18.

NFC West
Tie-breakers between LA Rams and Arizona will go to Arizona on division record. For second place, Arizona has head-to-head over San Francisco.



Scenarios per team

Kansas City
division champion
win + Tennessee loss/tie -> #1 seed
tie + Tennessee loss -> #1 seed
Tennessee has head-to-head tie-breaker over Kansas City

Tennessee
win -> division champion
tie + Indianapolis loss/tie -> division champion
tie + Indianapolis win -> playoffs
loss + Indianapolis loss -> division champion
loss + Indianapolis win/tie + 3 of 4 from: Baltimore loss/tie + LA Chargers loss/tie + Las Vegas loss/tie + Miami loss/tie in week 15 or week 16 -> playoffs
Tennessee has tie-breakers over Indianapolis (see above)

Cincinnati
win -> division champion
tie + Baltimore loss/tie -> division champion
loss + Baltimore loss + Pittsburgh loss/tie + Cleveland loss/tie -> division champion
Cincinnati has tie-breakers over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but not over Cleveland (see above)

Buffalo
win + at least 3 of 4 from: Baltimore loss/tie, LA Chargers loss/tie, Las Vegas loss/tie + Miami loss/tie in week 17 or week 16 -> playoffs
tie + at least 3 of 4 from: Baltimore loss, LA Chargers loss, Las Vegas loss + Pittsburgh loss/tie + Miami loss/tie in week 17 or week 16 -> playoffs
Buffalo cannot clinch division with win + New England loss

Indianapolis
win (vs Las Vegas) + 2 of 3 from: Baltimore loss/tie, LA Chargers loss/tie, Miami loss/tie in week 17 or week 16 -> playoffs
tie + Baltimore loss + LA Chargers loss -> playoffs

New England
win + 1 of 2 from: Las Vegas loss/tie, + Miami loss/tie in week 17 or week 16 -> playoffs
tie + at least 3 of 4 from: Baltimore loss/tie, LA Chargers loss/tie, Las Vegas loss, Miami loss in week 17 or week 16 (or double tie) -> playoffs
loss + Baltimore loss + LA Chargers loss + Pittsburgh loss/tie + Miami loss in week 17 and week 16 + Miami loss/tie in the other game -> playoffs
New England cannot clinch division with win + Buffalo loss

Baltimore
cannot clinch wild card in week 17

LA Chargers
cannot clinch wild card in week 17

Las Vegas
cannot clinch wild card in week 17


Green Bay
win + Dallas loss/tie + 1 of 2 from: LA Rams loss/tie, Tampa Bay loss/tie -> #1 seed
tie + Dallas loss + 1 of 2 from: LA Rams loss, Tampa Bay loss -> #1 seed

Dallas
division champion

LA Rams
win + Arizona loss/tie -> division champion
tie + Arizona loss -> division champion
Arizona can still get tie-breakers over LA Rams (see above)

Tampa Bay
division champion

Arizona
qualified for playoffs

San Francisco
win + New Orleans loss in week 17 or week 16 and loss/tie in other game + Minnesota loss/tie + Atlanta loss tie -> playoffs

Philadelphia
win + New Orleans loss in week 17 or week 16 and loss/tie in other game + Minnesota loss/tie + Atlanta loss tie -> playoffs

[Butter]

A 2-way tie between CIN and CLE, and CLE would be ahead on H2H, beating CIN 2-0.

[Thomkal]

I really hope NO makes it to the playoffs and has to face TB in the first round, as it seems like they are the only one who can beat Tom Brady

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Butter

A 2-way tie between CIN and CLE, and CLE would be ahead on H2H, beating CIN 2-0.

Yup, thanks. Fixed above.

[jbergey22]

Ive seen a lot of not ready for the NFL quarterbacks over the years but Ian Book has to be the most unready of them all. Just a horrendous performance tonight.

Also, it seems Brees made Peyton an offensive genius.

[QuikSand]

An "oh my" stat from @ESPNStatsInfo: Notre Dame QBs have lost 23 straight starts in the NFL. The last win was by Brady Quinn in Week 13 of the 2012 season vs the Panthers.

— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) December 28, 2021