Predict the #1 Movie this (and every) Weekend

[Pyser]

oof, forgot to update. ill go 52m. obsessed made 28m last week, kinda surprising.

[Pyser]

upon thinking one more minute, 72m.

[Chief Rum]

Your second guess is better, I think.

Reports had this opening at $35 M on Friday alone. I actually think $72 M could end up conservative. I think it could break $80 M.

[Pyser]

good call, CR. it made 85m

now the question is, will star trek beat it?

right now im thinking yes....but it all depends on the women. i get hugh jackman pulling them in...but spock??

[Pyser]

no idea what to guess. i think 65m, not as many women, but really good reviews.

[Chief Rum]

Lot of buzz for Star Trek leading up, and new fans seem to be curious and flocking. Plus, between reviews and positive word of mouth, I see that interest continuing for a bit. The new fans will help balance the male-heavy viewing lean.

Wolverine will do the traditional second week drop in bigtime genre films, so there was never a question in my mind Star Trek would top it. I don't know if Star Trek can catch that $87 M, though.

My guess is $75 M for Star Trek, and about $40-45 M for Wolverine.

[Pyser]

good job, CR. just about spot on!

this week is angels & demons. ill go 45m. dont know anyone who actually wants to see it, though.

[Chief Rum]

I went to see it last night, at a busy theater, and it was maybe one-third full (and that might be a liberal guess).

I am thinking it will also be meh at the box office, although, for me personally, it was on I was waiting a long time for. I think it brings in about $25-30 M, and Star Trek stays on top by maybe $2-3 M. The wolf will steal do decent, too (big drop is from first to second week), probably $20 M, maybe a little under.

[Pyser]

angels & demons made 46m.
star trek made 43m.


this week is terminator 4 vs night at the museum 2. will think on it a bit. both should be big, with it having an extra day for memorial day to boot.

[Pyser]

ugh, was out of town for a wedding, forgot to predict. i havent checked #s yet, so this will be unofficial. very tough to call. families vs everyone else. i only know 20somethings, so they were all about t4. ill go with families though, since kids stuff usually wins. 73m for natm2. but 65 maybe for t4? (3 day weekend only)

[Pyser]

no reason not to go huge with up. 81m.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

no reason not to go huge with up. 81m.

Crowded theater tonight, and that was at a 9 p.m. showing. The families will get out for this one, I am sure. $81 M still seems a bit high to me. My guess is more around $60 M. But it should do well, and beat out all other comers.

My guess for the rest...

Night @ Museum II...37 M
Drag Me To Hell...24 M
Terminator...21 M
Star Trek...13 M
Angels & Demons...8 M

I suspect Drag Me To Hell will do well, because most teens & post-adolescents will have already seen Terminator and Night @ Museum, and Up is too young, and A&D is too old. Plus, no other horror options out there right now, it has been advertised a bit and I'll bet Raimi's a bit of a pull from his Evil Dead cult series.

[Pyser]

i overshot, but CR guessed well. $68m

[Pyser]

tough week to call. hangover is the hot pick. land of the lost has families, but looks awful. and up should pull in around 30m too, and has the same audience at land of the lost

but im going will ferrell. 40m.

[Pyser]

thats embarrassing. hangover took it at 45m, land of the lost made like 18m or so

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

thats embarrassing. hangover took it at 45m, land of the lost made like 18m or so

I had had a meh feeling for Land of the Lost even before the awful reviews came out. The trailers didn't really look too good either. I think the public just saw through a pile of crap on this one. Plus, Hangover was going to put a big dent into any Land of the Lost audience, and Up was going to draw away families.

Not that I was calling this myself mind you, I'm just thinking in retrospect it might not be that surprising after all.

This week, I think with the word of mouth The Hangover seems to be getting, it's probably going to have a pretty short drop off. I can see another $30 M or so.

I'm not too sure Pelham 123 will get that big of an audience, especially being an R and an unestablished original story (which is sad, shouldn't need to be a sequel to earn money). I would guess $25 M or so, and likely to be less.

[Pyser]

i completely agree. maybe a little less for both.

[Pyser]

33/25. well done, cr

[Pyser]

oh, up snuck in between to take 2nd

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

oh, up snuck in between to take 2nd

I noticed that. Wow, shoulda gave more credit to Up.

[Pyser]

year one and the proposal try to unseat hangover.

i think the winner will make about 22m. ill give it to the proposal, but wouldnt be surprised to see hangover sneak in one more win.

[Pyser]

proposal wins at 33 or so.

this week is transformers 2, with a wed release. ill go 93m for 5 day....67m for 3 day.

[Pyser]

considering transformers 2 made 60m on wed alone, this week i will be wrong in such truly epic proportions, it might not be worth even bothering to predict anymore.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

considering transformers 2 made 60m on wed alone, this week i will be wrong in such truly epic proportions, it might not be worth even bothering to predict anymore.

Heh...it's been a screwy year picking the box numbers. Despite a recession and increased movie ticket prices, people seem to be going to the theater in droves. I wouldn't beat yourself up over it.

Obviously, Transformers in a landslide this weekend, although I think it's likely to plummet after this week.

[Pyser]

i see a lot of words, CR, but not a lot of numbers

[Buccaneer]

Movie-goers must be really hard up for entertainment and escapism to have Transformers get such gaudy numbers. Haven't seen Rotten Tomatoes but several reviews have trashed it (compared to the first one) and even fan scores from boxofficemojo and imdb are not that good. It is sad to reward such a movie with such high numbers, esp. compared to last year's Dark Knight and the upcoming HP.

[Pyser]

holy moly.

112m 3 day, 201m 5 day.

i was over 100m off!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

i see a lot of words, CR, but not a lot of numbers

Yeah, I thought the end numbers would be nutty (as they were), so picking a number would have been difficult.

This weekend is much more interesting, IMO. Three serious contenders. Transformers coming off of a phenomenal week--but did they just get the fanboy splash and know they drop like a rock? Public Enemies has a big draw in Johnny Depp--but it's not getting the buzz of the usual Fourth of July headliner, and is a period actioner a big enough draw? And then there's the new Ice Age movie, which will draw in families and fans of the series--but with Transformers and Public Enemies out there, can it draw enough from the non-family demographic to buffer its base numbers?

Strangely enough, right now I actually lean toward Transformers in another landslide. The rest of the people who missed it will make it the movie of choice over the holiday weekend.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Movie-goers must be really hard up for entertainment and escapism to have Transformers get such gaudy numbers. Haven't seen Rotten Tomatoes but several reviews have trashed it (compared to the first one) and even fan scores from boxofficemojo and imdb are not that good. It is sad to reward such a movie with such high numbers, esp. compared to last year's Dark Knight and the upcoming HP.

Sad to say, I knew the reviews were bad, but went to see it anyway. As bad as expected, had the same thrills expected (explosions, robot coolness, Megan Fox). So I am part of the problem, lol.

[Pyser]

ill go ice age 3. 56m.

[Pyser]

and transformers 2 wins a tight one. $42.3mil, beating ice age by 600k.

[Pyser]

ok, big weekend. how big will bruno be, following borat? i think people like foreigners a lot more than gay guys...

but i still think it will win, at 28m.

[Buccaneer]

But Bruno has one of the biggest all-time drops between Friday and Saturday.

[Pyser]

it made 30m. and was hilarious.

now time for mega potter money.

[Pyser]

hp6 made 58m on opening day wed.

for the 3 day weekend, ill go 101m.

[Pyser]

it made $79m. still pretty good.

[Pyser]

potter tries to hold on against g force, orphan and ugly truth

i think it will. 28m.

[SFL Cat]

G Force absolutely the worst piece of kiddy crap I've seen in a while...but it beat out Potter.

[SFL Cat]

Dola...even though I still don't see what all the big hulaboo is about effin' Harry Potter....

[Pyser]

yep. i was close, potter made 29.4, but g-force somehow made 31.7

[Pyser]

forgot to post yesterday. funny people 27m

[Pyser]

it made 23.4m

[Pyser]

gi joe vs julie and julia

ill go action, kinda big. gi joe at 40m.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

gi joe vs julie and julia

ill go action, kinda big. gi joe at 40m.

I like your pick. I think GI Joe was the obvious choice for who ends up on top. Just not enough interest, IMO, in Julie/Julia to match that. But the number was up in the air, and I think you're on the mark with 40 M.

[Pyser]

early estimates say mid 50s. hasbro is king!

[Pyser]

sorry, was away for 2 weeks

this week gotta go inglourious basterds. ill pick 36m. and man, no bad buzz at all from people ive talked to. still want to see last weeks d9 too.

[Pyser]

basterds made $38.1m

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

basterds made $38.1m

Damn, that's one of your best picks yet, numbers-wise. It wasn't a stretch to see Basterds take the top spot, so hitting close to the number was the good shot this week.

[Pyser]

i got lucky, yeah

this week its inglourious holding and strong word of mouth vs two horror flicks: halloween 2 and the final destination

ill go halloween, but will root for basterds. halloween at 24m

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

i got lucky, yeah

this week its inglourious holding and strong word of mouth vs two horror flicks: halloween 2 and the final destination

ill go halloween, but will root for basterds. halloween at 24m

Ditto. Except I think Halloween breaks 30. Horror nuts dig this stuff, and I don't think it will be much of a split between that and Final Destination (non-serious horror fans, teens will go to that one; college, 20s & 30s will go to Halloween).