Survivor: New Helsing Tribal Thread

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

You're a sick fuck.

I know but the game has nothing to do with it

[Lathum]

Alan- we have to have our order in by 3:30.

Here is what I thunk we should do. Have one person who seems most trusted submit the order and not tell anyone else. That way unles that person is a wolf there is no way the wolves can fix it since no one but that one person knows the order.

I nominate St. Cronin. Despite his poor attitude he is the closest we have to cleared.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My suggestion is everyone put down rock, paper, scissors fo their own entry as close to 10pm as they will be around. Then at like 9:55-9:57 we use random.org to decide what order everyone's names get submitted in.

That way we won't overthink a contest thats purely luck driven, and very little chance of a wolf influencing it (if they even wanted to in the first place).

Then we just decide who wants to go twice.




I don't get this at all. I don't really understand why people vote themselves or have this type of attitude.

It's quite simple, this has been far and away the least amount of fun I've had playing werewolf (with apologies to Barkeep). This game just doesn't suit my schedule or the way my mind works. None of the challenges have made any sense to me, I haven't been able to keep up with the multiple deadlines, etc. I'm doing my best to compete and have fun, and I'm not going to throw the game, but the sooner I'm voted off the happier I'll be.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Alan- we have to have our order in by 3:30.

Here is what I thunk we should do. Have one person who seems most trusted submit the order and not tell anyone else. That way unles that person is a wolf there is no way the wolves can fix it since no one but that one person knows the order.

I nominate St. Cronin. Despite his poor attitude he is the closest we have to cleared.

I agree, St.cronin is the only one on this team we're sure isn't a wolf. So that works for me.

[Barkeep49]

The order everyone goes must be submitted by 3:30. I will then post the match-ups at that time.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

It's quite simple, this has been far and away the least amount of fun I've had playing werewolf (with apologies to Barkeep). This game just doesn't suit my schedule or the way my mind works. None of the challenges have made any sense to me, I haven't been able to keep up with the multiple deadlines, etc. I'm doing my best to compete and have fun, and I'm not going to throw the game, but the sooner I'm voted off the happier I'll be.

Well I'm sorry you feel that way, but I think the thing that you have to keep in mind is that several of us.. even though we were frustrated by you don't want to vote you since we know you aren't a wolf. So voting for you likely is just a wasted vote.

I meant what I said earlier, that we're giving you another chance, and I'm hoping maybe with a more active group perhaps the game will be more fun for you and you'll find some entertainment where a dead tribe earlier wasn't able to give you. For the entire game, I've had fun likely because Helsing has been active and working together.

I guess what I am saying is give us a try, and see if we can let bygones be bygones.. I think voting for you at this point would be a bad vote if we ever get to a tribal council.. so would rather not give the wolves an easy option to vote you because (he wanted to be voted, or we didnt like his attitude, or whatever)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I agree, St.cronin is the only one on this team we're sure isn't a wolf. So that works for me.

I would say 95% sure. There is a conversion possibility.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The order everyone goes must be submitted by 3:30. I will then post the match-ups at that time.

well there goes my plan I guess

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would say 95% sure. There is a conversion possibility.

Well my guess is if we haven't seen wolf kills yet, then a wolf conversion would be unlikely too.

Either way, in most WW games I prefer going for the knowns (sure wolf chances) before the unknown or hypotheticals (could have been converted)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The order everyone goes must be submitted by 3:30. I will then post the match-ups at that time.

Are the matchups randomly assigned, or in order of submitted names?

[Lathum]

Can you change your action once it is posted?

[st.cronin]

Eh, I will not be around at that time anyway. I won't be back on til later this evening most likely.

VOTE ROCK

In case I need to get one in now.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Can you change your action once it is posted?

My assumption was one person submitts the list of all of our names with our actions to barkeep.

I simply suggested us all choosing our action here in the thread as an option of getting those actions. I could be wrong on this though.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well I'm sorry you feel that way, but I think the thing that you have to keep in mind is that several of us.. even though we were frustrated by you don't want to vote you since we know you aren't a wolf. So voting for you likely is just a wasted vote.

I meant what I said earlier, that we're giving you another chance, and I'm hoping maybe with a more active group perhaps the game will be more fun for you and you'll find some entertainment where a dead tribe earlier wasn't able to give you. For the entire game, I've had fun likely because Helsing has been active and working together.

I guess what I am saying is give us a try, and see if we can let bygones be bygones.. I think voting for you at this point would be a bad vote if we ever get to a tribal council.. so would rather not give the wolves an easy option to vote you because (he wanted to be voted, or we didnt like his attitude, or whatever)

I am doing my best, and I understand that. Anyway for the last time GE and I were telling the truth about Raiders. My thought in making the play that I did was that one of the wolves might do or say something that would call attention to themselves. Apparently, it didn't happen, but I still think it was a reasonable play.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Are the matchups randomly assigned, or in order of submitted names?

I interperted it to be the way the names were submitted.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My assumption was one person submitts the list of all of our names with our actions to barkeep.

I simply suggested us all choosing our action here in the thread as an option of getting those actions. I could be wrong on this though.

I think we have to post our action in here according to BK

[Barkeep49]

Every player needs to be assigned a letter, from A-H. One player gets two letters. I will then take your A and match him up against the A from Howard. And so on down the line. Players then post their rock, paper, or scissors decision in the thread and I resolve the conflicts.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Every player needs to be assigned a letter, from A-H. One player gets two letters. I will then take your A and match him up against the A from Howard. And so on down the line. Players then post their rock, paper, or scissors decision in the thread and I resolve the conflicts.

what happens in a tie? does it roll to the next player?

[Lathum]

Our action doesn't have to be posted until the deadline but the order needs to be in by 3:30.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Our action doesn't have to be posted until the deadline but the order needs to be in by 3:30.

correct

[Alan T]

ok, then so for the 3:30 deadline, we need to decide what the order will be, and who goes twice.

I personally think in a random contest, going random is the best way.

I say we take the 7 people, put them in random.org and the person's number who comes up goes twice. Then for the order, we put the 8 names (including the one person twice) in to random.org and let it shuffle it and provide us our order.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

ok, then so for the 3:30 deadline, we need to decide what the order will be, and who goes twice.

I personally think in a random contest, going random is the best way.

I say we take the 7 people, put them in random.org and the person's number who comes up goes twice. Then for the order, we put the 8 names (including the one person twice) in to random.org and let it shuffle it and provide us our order.

works for me

[Alan T]

If we go with the random approach, I think we should work that out close to 3:15-3:30 time table just to limit any leaking of that information to the other tribe. Any volunteers for doing the random.org stuff if we go with that approach? I don't mind doing it, but if i do it, I likely will take screenshots as I go so people will believe the values I get

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If we go with the random approach, I think we should work that out close to 3:15-3:30 time table just to limit any leaking of that information to the other tribe. Any volunteers for doing the random.org stuff if we go with that approach? I don't mind doing it, but if i do it, I likely will take screenshots as I go so people will believe the values I get

It's going to be posted by BK in the main forum so that really won't matter re: leaks

go ahead and do the random.org thing.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

It's going to be posted by BK in the main forum so that really won't matter re: leaks

go ahead and do the random.org thing.

I guess thats true.. Since this is just the order and not the actions, I guess that won't hurt.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

ok, then so for the 3:30 deadline, we need to decide what the order will be, and who goes twice.

I personally think in a random contest, going random is the best way.

I say we take the 7 people, put them in random.org and the person's number who comes up goes twice. Then for the order, we put the 8 names (including the one person twice) in to random.org and let it shuffle it and provide us our order.

I'm fine with this. I really don't see how this can be gamed as long as we don't reveal our choices until the last minute.

[Alan T]

Ok, so for the order to be randomized, I just used Bakeep's order that he has us listed in:




I simply assigned a number next to each of the entries in notepad in the same order:



Put them into random.org:



And random.org told me who should go twice:



I check my list and #5 is Path, so he also becomes #8:



I go back to random.org to help create a random sequence:



Random.org says we should go in this number:



So I put the names in order based off of random.org:



So randomly, our list would be:

Lathum
Swaggs
Mr. W
Cronin
Path
Path
Alan
SnDvls

[Lathum]

ugh, not the turnout I would have wanted.



BTW- Alan you crack me up

[path12]

I would have just trusted you!

[st.cronin]

Personally I think everybody should go with rock. After all, nothing beats rock.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

I would have just trusted you!

Its Werewolf

1) Never trust anyone.
2) Always vote Saldana


Or something like that.

[Lathum]

so I don't want to be mean, but I don't think path should go twice

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so I don't want to be mean, but I don't think path should go twice

Even if he's a wolf, what difference does it make? Heck, if he's a wolf, we're probably slightly better off with him going twice.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Even if he's a wolf, what difference does it make? Heck, if he's a wolf, we're probably slightly better off with him going twice.

why?

[st.cronin]

Don't you think wolves want to win challenges?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so I don't want to be mean, but I don't think path should go twice

I think this information would have been helpful before alan went through all the trouble he did.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Don't you think wolves want to win challenges?

I think it was kinda proven in that we had a wolf in our original tribe and won several...so yes

[st.cronin]

And considering oz had no wolves and bombed on a couple of challenges ...

[Lathum]

I dunno, I guess it is no big deal but lets say the wolves CAN communicate and 2 of them are on our side and one on their side. They could try and throw the challange so the side with 1 wolf loses giving them a better chance to not vote off a wolf.

Maybe I am overthinking it

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

And considering oz had no wolves and bombed on a couple of challenges ...

you guys just suck

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Maybe I am overthinking it

Well, it wouldn't be werewolf if somebody wasn't overthinking. The other tribe got the bulk of oz - so chances are WE have 2 wolves.

[st.cronin]

dola

Which might be a reason for US to throw it. You see what happens?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I dunno, I guess it is no big deal but lets say the wolves CAN communicate and 2 of them are on our side and one on their side. They could try and throw the challange so the side with 1 wolf loses giving them a better chance to not vote off a wolf.

Maybe I am overthinking it

but if we keep to the plan of not posting our R/P/S until before deadline then
we stand a better chance of stopping it I think

[Alan T]

I think thats the best we can do to prevent people from messing with the values. We all submit our picks at the end, and keep track of who put in what bids when.

After the contest is over, we can ask the villagers on the other team in the general thread what the times of their submissions were, who drove it, etc. To see if that gives us anything. We can hope that the other team is as willing as we are to hunt out wolves that way now that the teams were shuffled some.

[st.cronin]

7 members of this tribe, 1 former ozzite = 6 possible wolves
8 members of the other tribe, 3 former ozzite = 5 possible wolves

Just thinking out loud about the odds. We know (I think) that there is at least one wolf in each tribe. Can anybody speculate on which tribe is more likely to have two?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

7 members of this tribe, 1 former ozzite = 6 possible wolves
8 members of the other tribe, 3 former ozzite = 5 possible wolves

Just thinking out loud about the odds. We know (I think) that there is at least one wolf in each tribe. Can anybody speculate on which tribe is more likely to have two?

Well you can break it down as such: (assuming no conversions)

Helsing
Alan - 16%
Cronin - 0%
Lathum - 16%
Mr. W - 16%
Path - 25%
SnDvls - 16%
Swaggs - 33%

Howard
Anxiety - 33%
Ardent - 0%
Golden - 0%
Grammaticus - 16%
ITC - 0%
Jonathan - 25%
Kwhit - 33%
Pass - 16%


So if you look at the raw percentages, Howard technically has a very tiny hair of a better chance of having wolves than us. When you take into account that they have more people who have a 0% chance of catching a wolf, the general odds of voting off a wolf is much higher if they go to tribal council.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

7 members of this tribe, 1 former ozzite = 6 possible wolves
8 members of the other tribe, 3 former ozzite = 5 possible wolves

Just thinking out loud about the odds. We know (I think) that there is at least one wolf in each tribe. Can anybody speculate on which tribe is more likely to have two?

hard to say. All I know is it is 50/50 Path is a wolf and 33% swaggs is one

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well you can break it down as such: (assuming no conversions)

Helsing
Alan - 16%
Cronin - 0%
Lathum - 16%
Mr. W - 16%
Path - 25%
SnDvls - 16%
Swaggs - 33%

Howard
Anxiety - 33%
Ardent - 0%
Golden - 0%
Grammaticus - 16%
ITC - 0%
Jonathan - 25%
Kwhit - 33%
Pass - 16%


So if you look at the raw percentages, Howard technically has a very tiny hair of a better chance of having wolves than us. When you take into account that they have more people who have a 0% chance of catching a wolf, the general odds of voting off a wolf is much higher if they go to tribal council.

I think we should explain this in the other thread. Convince them to throw the challenge.

[st.cronin]

Assuming no conversions, and no seer reveal, we could maybe just use that list to coordinate with the other tribe who should lose each challenge, and who should then be voted off.

[Lathum]

I think it shouldn't matter who wins/ loses. IMO we should eliminate the remaining members of Howard and Lupus. That way we guarentee we eliminate 2 wolves leaving one ( assuming no conversion). That leaves us one wolf, the seer and 8 villagers.