Werewolf 107, Terror at Blizzcon, Basic Game, GAME OVER, HORDE WINS

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

it's right here. why wouldn't it be correct.

What I was saying was that I wanted to look over vote history from previous days and do some vote analysis. Which I did a bit of and posted my thoughts about day 1 and the likelyhood that spleen, Dubb/Render or both are wolves.

[CrimsonFox]

I'm really hoping poli isn't the warlock. That means no wolf lynch tonight

[Lathum]

deadline

[CrimsonFox]

noswitching??? *faints*

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

noswitching??? *faints*

That probably means tehre's no warlock ;-)

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That probably means tehre's no warlock ;-)

I don't know...I could be the warlock. *ALAKAZAM!*

[Lathum]

You all gather around and determine you must do something, anything. Ballots are cast and votes are counted, Poli-Render-Spleen-Poli-Render-Spleen, it keeps going that way until there is a tie between Poli and Render, you all look at each other. There is a tie, no one will be lynched tonight! Poli and Render let out sighs of relief, just then Autumn looks down into the hat you have been collecting to catch votes and says "what? There is one more vote. He slowly reaches in and unfolds the paper, scrawled in barely legible writing it says, Poli.

You all grab poli and lynch him, as you loot through his pockets nothing turns up except his guild membership card to Vols4evah. Poli was a villager.

[Lathum]

You wake up the next morning, all of you but autumn, apparently he never made it to bed, he is found in the hallway ripped lib from limb, Autumn was the Priest

[CrimsonFox]

well there's our answer. Vole4evah...lol

[CrimsonFox]

I kinda expected that. Sorry Autumn bud.

[Autumn]

Yeah, I knew I had one day left in me. Glad to see we actually accomplished something, even if we lynched a villager.

Good luck!

[EagleFan]

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Yeah, I knew I had one day left in me. Glad to see we actually accomplished something, even if we lynched a villager.

Good luck!

Yeah, LOL, accomplished something....FOR THE HORDE!...(for me to poop on...)

[MartinD]

A quick summary of how I see the situation:

The Day 5 vote proves that the warlock role is in the game, and is one of the players who voted for Poli - J23, spleen1015, RendeR or myself.

The Day 2 vote helps to narrow this down further - if the warlock was one of the people who voted for Schmidty (spleen1015, RendeR, GoldenEagle or EagleFan), it would have been a tied vote between Schmidty and EagleFan, not an EagleFan lynch. That removes spleen1015 and RendeR from consideration, meaning that the warlock is either J23 or myself.

I know that I'm not the warlock, so there's only one place my Day 6 vote is going:

VOTE J23


Some further thoughts: We're currently at 9 players, and we know that the warlock is still alive.

If there were originally 5 wolves, we're currently at 5-4. If that's the case, I think that the game would be over - with the warlock adding an extra vote on the wolves' side, there's no way that the village could win (the wolves can force a tie in the lynch vote by voting as a block, then hit on the night kill to draw level). This makes me think that there were not 5 wolves in the game initially.

If there were originally 4 wolves, we're currently at 6-3 - effectively 6-4 on lynch votes because of the warlock. If we do not lynch a wolf with the next vote, and the wolves make their night kill (this isn't certain, as the paladin is one of the remaining players, if that role is in the game), the count becomes 4-3, with the warlock adding an extra vote to the Horde side of the vote - tied vote, so the wolves win (by the same thinking as I used above).

If there were originally 3 wolves, the position is a bit better - currently at 7-2, with one of those wolves known to be one of two players (J23 and myself).

I'm fairly sure that I'm understanding the current situation correctly, based on the rules of this game - please correct me if I'm misunderstanding something, or if I've got something wrong.

[PurdueBrad]

So we've finally nailed the warlock, nicely done. Whoever had said it was easier to engineer this later in the game, you obviously were right:

vote J23
vote nightfall

[J23]

I assure you that I am not the warlock. If you lynch me, we lose, plain and simple. Look back through the thread and think if I've been playing like a wolf or not.

vote MartinD

[The Jackal]

PB, why did you vote nightfall without even considering in your post that Martin could be the warlock? J has been under more heat, but I'd like to at least hear some thoughts on this - if J isn't the warlock and Martin is then we lose, and this could easily be an endgame scenario you are trying to push.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

PB, why did you vote nightfall without even considering in your post that Martin could be the warlock? J has been under more heat, but I'd like to at least hear some thoughts on this - if J isn't the warlock and Martin is then we lose, and this could easily be an endgame scenario you are trying to push.

Just went back, I thought that was a CF post, not a Martin D post, and I tend to trust CF this game. Hmm, let's start here and then I'll still consider one or the other.

unvote nightfall

[J23]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

PB, why did you vote nightfall without even considering in your post that Martin could be the warlock? J has been under more heat, but I'd like to at least hear some thoughts on this - if J isn't the warlock and Martin is then we lose, and this could easily be an endgame scenario you are trying to push.

My guess was that he was another wolf trying to get a quick run going. I'm not sure what I can say at this point that I haven't said already to show that I'm not a wolf. I guess I'll try to look at Martin's posts this game, but other than forgetting to unvote during the first attempt at exposing the warlock, I don't remember anything signifcant that he's done.

[RendeR]

Vote J23

I had this one right the other day, the voting record supports it. I still think we're screwed but we gotta fight the good fight.

[J23]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Vote J23

I had this one right the other day, the voting record supports it. I still think we're screwed but we gotta fight the good fight.

You're screwed (if you're a villager) if I'm lynched tonight.

[PurdueBrad]

Wow, quiet weekend and I'm sort of surprised there was no push either way.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Wow, quiet weekend and I'm sort of surprised there was no push either way.

It's the weekend, why are you surprised? The action will go down tomorrow. No sense in early votes when no one is here to talk about it.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

It's the weekend, why are you surprised? The action will go down tomorrow. No sense in early votes when no one is here to talk about it.

I thought we had been having more weekend action as of late. I must be mistaken.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I thought we had been having more weekend action as of late. I must be mistaken.

Ehh, I'm not sure. Still, there's no expectation of activity in general, I'd say. I've been very busy all weekend myself anyways.

[Poli]

Turned out my date was kinda hot so I forgot to check in at the deadline.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Poli

Turned out my date was kinda hot so I forgot to check in at the deadline.

Stop putting your hand on the stove....

[CrimsonFox]

LOL! That's the funniest thing I've read this minute...okay this week...


oh yeah

VOTE SPLEEN

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

LOL! That's the funniest thing I've read this minute...okay this week...


oh yeah

VOTE SPLEEN

I know I haven't been cleared as a wolf, but I have been cleared as the Warlock. We know that the Warlock is either MartinD or J23, so why would you vote for me if you were a villager?

I'm not sure who I am going to vote for today. You can bet it is going to be J23 or MartinD. If we manage to get the Warlock, then CF is next I think.

Current vote count:
J23 (3) - MartinD(1014), PurdueBrad(1015), RendeR(1020)
MartinD (1) - J23(1016)
spleen1015 (1) - CrimsonFox(1028)

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Stop putting your hand on the stove....

Nicely done, nicely done.

[J23]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

LOL! That's the funniest thing I've read this minute...okay this week...


oh yeah

VOTE SPLEEN

There is no reason for a villager to not vote for either MartinD or myself. With the warlock in play, if we split up, we could very easily allow the wolves to pick the lynch target, and with a successful NK, we could be at the end-game.

Either believe me or MartinD, and vote for the other one. I clearly am advocating a vote for MartinD.

[spleen1015]

VOTE J23

Looking at the Day 1-3 voting history, J23's vote were all made in place where I think it is good to hide the Warlock. He was the first vote placed on DV on Day 1. That is a good place to hide the Warlock. MartinD also voted for DV this day, the 2nd vote. I don't see the Warlock making this play.

On Day 2, he was the deciding vote against EF. His 2nd voted gets hidden because his first is the deciding vote.

On Day 3, he was the last vote in a runaway situation with RealDeal. The perfect place to hide 2 votes.

[spleen1015]

Current vote count:
J23 (4) - MartinD(1014), PurdueBrad(1015), RendeR(1020), spleen1015(1032)
MartinD (1) - J23(1016)
spleen1015 (1) - CrimsonFox(1028)

[KWhit]

I need to go back and do some vote analysis, but yeah, we should be choosing between Martin and J23 today.

[J23]

Yep, my votes suck. They've been pretty vocal votes for the most part, which isn't exactly wolf-like, but I guess you're going to ignore that and have us lose. Oh well, we're behind enough right now, that it would take some damn good votes to win anyway.

I could reiterate why I voted which way every day, but if you look back a day or two, I've already done so. Feel free to go back and re-read them if you like.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by J23

Yep, my votes suck. They've been pretty vocal votes for the most part, which isn't exactly wolf-like, but I guess you're going to ignore that and have us lose. Oh well, we're behind enough right now, that it would take some damn good votes to win anyway.

I could reiterate why I voted which way every day, but if you look back a day or two, I've already done so. Feel free to go back and re-read them if you like.

As a wolf, you're supposed to be un-wolf like right?

I could be totally wrong, but this is where I am staying today.

[KWhit]

Has anyone put together something like this for the rest of the days? I'd love to dive into the vote history today, but don't have time to compile all this stuff.

Day One Votes:
(70) saldana votes dubb93 (dubb93 1)
(74) spleen1015 votes saldana (dubb93 1, saldana 1)
(80) Poli votes EagleFan (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1)
(83) dubb93 votes Kwhit (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Kwhit 1)
(93) Schmidty votes Poli (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Kwhit 1, Poli 1)
(94) MartinD votes J23 (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Kwhit 1, Poli 1, J23 1)
(95) EagleFan votes Kwhit (Kwhit 2, dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1)
(96) CrimsonFox votes dubb93 (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1)
(100) J23 votes Darth Vilus (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, Darth Vilus 1)
(101) RealDeal votes GoldenEagle (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, Darth Vilus 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(112) Darth Vilus votes Kwhit (Kwhit 3, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, Darth Vilus 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(113) dubb93 unvotes Kwhit, votes Darth Vilus (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, Darth Vilus 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(120) Darth Vilus unvotes Kwhit, votes dubb93 (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 2, Kwhit 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(122) claphamsa votes saldana (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 2, saldana 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(123) MartinD unvotes J23 (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 2, saldana 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(126) MartinD votes Darth Vilus (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, saldana 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(127) RealDeal unvotes GoldenEagle, votes Kwhit (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, saldana 2, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(128) PurdueBrad votes Kwhit (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, Kwhit 3, saldana 2, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(131) Autumn votes saldana (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, Kwhit 3, saldana 3, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(135) Danny votes saldana (saldana 4, dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, Kwhit 3, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(154) Schmidty unvotes Poli, votes Darth Vilus (saldana 4, Darth Vilus 4, dubb93 3, Kwhit 3, EagleFan 1)
(160) PurdueBrad unvotes Kwhit, votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 5, saldana 4, dubb93 3, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(166) Kwhit votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 6, saldana 4, dubb93 3, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(171) GoldenEagle votes saldana (Darth Vilus 6, saldana 5, dubb93 3, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(173) saldana unvotes dubb93, votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 7, saldana 5, dubb93 2, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(187) dubb93 unvotes Darth Vilus, votes saldana (Darth Vilus 6, saldana 6, dubb93 2, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(220) EagleFan unvotes Kwhit, votes saldana (saldana 7, Darth Vilus 6, dubb93 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1)
(221) CrimsonFox unvotes dubb93, votes Darth Vilus (saldana 7, Darth Vilus 7, dubb93 2, EagleFan 1)
(222) claphamsa unvotes saldana
(224) claphamsa votes saldana (saldana 7, Darth Vilus 7, dubb93 2, EagleFan 1)
(226) Autumn unvotes saldana, votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 8, saldana 6, dubb93 2, EagleFan 1)

[J23]

Originally Posted by J23

Day One Votes
(70) saldana votes dubb93 (dubb93 1)
(74) spleen1015 votes saldana (dubb93 1, saldana 1)
(80) Poli votes EagleFan (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1)
(83) dubb93 votes Kwhit (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Kwhit 1)
(93) Schmidty votes Poli (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Kwhit 1, Poli 1)
(94) MartinD votes J23 (dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Kwhit 1, Poli 1, J23 1)
(95) EagleFan votes Kwhit (Kwhit 2, dubb93 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1)
(96) CrimsonFox votes dubb93 (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1)
(100) J23 votes Darth Vilus (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, Darth Vilus 1)
(101) RealDeal votes GoldenEagle (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, Darth Vilus 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(112) Darth Vilus votes Kwhit (Kwhit 3, dubb93 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, Darth Vilus 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(113) dubb93 unvotes Kwhit, votes Darth Vilus (Kwhit 2, dubb93 2, Darth Vilus 2, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(120) Darth Vilus unvotes Kwhit, votes dubb93 (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 2, Kwhit 1, saldana 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(122) claphamsa votes saldana (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 2, saldana 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, J23 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(123) MartinD unvotes J23 (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 2, saldana 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(126) MartinD votes Darth Vilus (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, saldana 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1, Poli 1, GoldenEagle 1)
(127) RealDeal unvotes GoldenEagle, votes Kwhit (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, saldana 2, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(128) PurdueBrad votes Kwhit (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, Kwhit 3, saldana 2, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(131) Autumn votes saldana (dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, Kwhit 3, saldana 3, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(135) Danny votes saldana (saldana 4, dubb93 3, Darth Vilus 3, Kwhit 3, EagleFan 1, Poli 1)
(154) Schmidty unvotes Poli, votes Darth Vilus (saldana 4, Darth Vilus 4, dubb93 3, Kwhit 3, EagleFan 1)
(160) PurdueBrad unvotes Kwhit, votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 5, saldana 4, dubb93 3, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(166) Kwhit votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 6, saldana 4, dubb93 3, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(171) GoldenEagle votes saldana (Darth Vilus 6, saldana 5, dubb93 3, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(173) saldana unvotes dubb93, votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 7, saldana 5, dubb93 2, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(187) dubb93 unvotes Darth Vilus, votes saldana (Darth Vilus 6, saldana 6, dubb93 2, Kwhit 2, EagleFan 1)
(220) EagleFan unvotes Kwhit, votes saldana (saldana 7, Darth Vilus 6, dubb93 2, Kwhit 1, EagleFan 1)
(221) CrimsonFox unvotes dubb93, votes Darth Vilus (saldana 7, Darth Vilus 7, dubb93 2, EagleFan 1)
(222) claphamsa unvotes saldana
(224) claphamsa votes saldana (saldana 7, Darth Vilus 7, dubb93 2, EagleFan 1)
(226) Autumn unvotes saldana, votes Darth Vilus (Darth Vilus 8, saldana 6, dubb93 2, EagleFan 1)


Day Two Votes
(284) Dubb votes for EF (EF 1)
(322) EF votes for Render (EF 1, Render 1)
(329) Schmidty votes for EF (EF 2, Render 1)
(333) **Render takes over for Dubb**
(349) Poli votes for CF (EF 2, Render 1, CF 1)
(354) Autumn votes for EF (EF 3, Render 1, CF 1)
Plan comes together
(364) PB votes for Render (EF 3, Render 2, CF 1)
(365) RealDeal votes for EF (EF 4, Render 2, CF 1)
(366) J23 votes for PB (EF 4, Render 2, CF 1, PB 1)
(367) Saldana votes for Kwhit (EF 4, Render 2, CF 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1)
(368) Clap votes for RealDeal (EF 4, Render 2, CF 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1)
(373) Jackal votes for Poli (EF 4, Render 2, CF 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1)
(379) Autumn unvotes EF, votes for GE (EF 3, Render 2, CF 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1)
(380) Poli unvotes CF, votes for MartinD (EF 3, Render 2, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1)
(382) EF unvotes Render, votes for CF (EF 3, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1)
(384) MartinD votes for EF (EF 4, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1)
(391) Spleen votes for Schmidty (EF 4, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1, Schmidty 1)
(398) Kwhit votes for Clap (EF 4, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1, Schmidty 1, Clap 1)
(412) CF votes for Saldana (EF 4, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1, Schmidty 1, Clap 1, Saldana 1)
(434) **Lathum announces that Dubb's vote did not count** (EF 3, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1, Schmidty 1, Clap 1, Saldana 1)
(443) MartinD votes Autumn *DID NOT UNVOTE, NOT COUNTED*
(446) GE votes for J23 (EF 3, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1, Schmidty 1, Clap 1, Saldana 1, J23 1)
(450) CF unvotes Saldana, votes for EF (EF 3, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1, Schmidty 1, Clap 1, J23 1)
(463) Render votes for Saldana (EF 3, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 1, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1, Schmidty 1, Clap 1, Saldana 1, J23 1)
(465) CF unvotes EF, votes for RealDeal (EF 3, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 2, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, CF 1, Schmidty 1, Clap 1, Saldana 1, J23 1)
(500) EF unvotes CF, votes for RealDeal (EF 3, Render 1, PB 1, Kwhit 1, RD 3, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 1, Clap 1, Saldana 1, J23 1)
(528) J23 unvotes PB (EF 3, Render 1, Kwhit 1, RD 3, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 1, Clap 1, Saldana 1, J23 1)
(530) Render unvotes Saldana, votes for Schmidty (EF 3, Render 1, Kwhit 1, RD 3, Poli 1, GE 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 2, Clap 1, J23 1)
(531) Autumn unvotes GE, votes for Kwhit (EF 3, Render 1, Kwhit 2, RD 3, Poli 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 2, Clap 1, J23 1)
(536) GE unvotes J23 (EF 3, Render 1, Kwhit 2, RD 3, Poli 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 2, Clap 1)
(541) J23 votes for Schmidty (EF 3, Render 1, Kwhit 2, RD 3, Poli 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 3, Clap 1)
(542) GE votes RealDeal (EF 3, Render 1, Kwhit 2, RD 4, Poli 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 3, Clap 1)
(551) Clap unvotes RealDeal, votes Kwhit (EF 3, Render 1, Kwhit 3, RD 3, Poli 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 3, Clap 1)
(571) Clap unvotes Kwhit, votes EF (EF 4, Render 1, Kwhit 2, RD 3, Poli 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 3, Clap 1)
(577) GE unvotes RealDeal, votes Schmidty (EF 4, Render 1, Kwhit 2, RD 2, Poli 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 4, Clap 1)
(581) EF unvotes RealDeal, votes Schmidty (EF 4, Render 1, Kwhit 2, RD 1, Poli 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 5, Clap 1)
(584) J23 unvotes Schmidty, votes EF (EF 5, Render 1, Kwhit 2, RD 1, Poli 1, MartinD 1, Schmidty 4, Clap 1)

I did it for day 2. I don't know of one that's been done since.

[spleen1015]

So, on Day 2, Schmidty was going down until J23 switched his vote to EF and EF was a villager.

I am inclined to think that J23 is Mr. Warlock, Schmidty is another wolf since J23 moved of of him to kill a villager, saving a wolf and Crimson Fox is a wolf based on his vote for me today being unvillager like.

[J23]

Just like you'd think that EF was a wolf because of his late switch to saldana night 1. Oh wait, he was a villager too.

Villagers screw up the votes and get villagers lynched more often than wolves at deadline. Wolves know they'll get pressure by doing it and don't want it, villagers don't know which vote will get them pressure.

I'm really too busy today at work to dig up much of anything, and I'll be in class until right around deadline.

If I'm lynched, and the game's somehow not over, please lynch MartinD and then look at Dubb/Render, who's vote on day 1 looks suspicious when he made a change from DV to Saldana(now a known villager). With the warlock on DV and after he was gone for the night due to time zones, they might have written off DV as dead, but if not, that's likely the move to try to save him.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by J23

There is no reason for a villager to not vote for either MartinD or myself. With the warlock in play, if we split up, we could very easily allow the wolves to pick the lynch target, and with a successful NK, we could be at the end-game.

Either believe me or MartinD, and vote for the other one.

This might be the only thing that J23 and I agree on today...

[The Jackal]

This is a tough one, I can see cases for either of these guys being a wolf or villager.

[RendeR]

My vote stands. I won't be around at Deadlin as I will be taking Telle out for her Birthday tonight.

[J23]

Originally Posted by RendeR

My vote stands. I won't be around at Deadlin as I will be taking Telle out for her Birthday tonight.

I'm not surprised I guess. Looking back, I'm not sure how Dubb/Render didn't get more scrutiny after the day 1 switch from DV to Saldana to make things interesting didn't recieve more scrutiny. I guess more focus this game has been on the last minute switches which has killed EF, Clap, and looking like myself tonight.

So, if I had to guess...

Martin - warlock (duh)
Render - brutal (dubb probably not worried about being lynched if he takes out another)
Spleen - only looking at my votes today rather than Martin's makes me awful suspicious

It's probably over tonight anyway, but just in case I figured I would put this down while I have a few minutes.

[The Jackal]

I'd like to hear from KWhit because he's about the only person I have any modicum of trust in right now

[KWhit]

I've been looking over the thread a bit and keep coming back to the day where J23 was on the block. Wednesday of last week I think it was.

At around 5:00 of that day, J23 was very much in jeopardy of being lynched. I think he was tied or one back from the lead. And then a ton of people unvoted him for no real reason and went elsewhere. It starts around post 753. Take a look.

The following people unvoted him, taking him out of the running.
MartinD
CrimsonFox
RendeR


In fact, Render says here:

Originally Posted by RendeR

Unvote J23

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

Gut instinct here. My vote on J23 got what I wanted, lots of discussion of his move. Not totally convinced on him yet. Thinking I'd rather lynch Realdeal but the votes are on Clap at this point so lets roll with that.

I even pointed out at the time that looked suspicious to me. Why? Because we've all seen wolves who place a vote on another wolf to try to gain credibility. But then they have to move it when the wolf looks like he may actually get lynched. Any time someone backs off a previous vote by saying "I just wanted to get discussion going" or something like that it throws up a big red flag to me.

So I lean to the side of thinking that J23 is a wolf.

However, I don't like it that so many people are voting for him. I was originally leaning toward voting for MartinD just to keep it close and put pressure on the wolves. But after thinking about it, I realize that's a big mistake. If all the villagers split the votes between the two candidates, the wolves can just vote at the deadline (or move their vote at deadline) and lynch the villager. Because they have 4 votes at their disposal. In other words, we're in trouble.

So in my opinion, we need to pile our votes together on the candidate that we think is most wolfish. To me, that candidate is J23. I'm not sold on this and will certainly listen to other thoughts. But whichever way we go, we need to decide as a group and load up our votes on that candidate. Otherwise, the wolves will move their votes and lynch the villager. Then it's 4 votes vs. 4 votes and we basically lose the game.

Open to changing if someone can present a clear case against MartinD, but for now:

VOTE J23

[The Jackal]

I can't really argue with that. Here's hoping that J is the warlock, that will really open things up for us.

VOTE J23

[J23]

Well, the first person in that run you point out Kwhit is MartinD. Is there any scenario where you think that he and I are both wolves here?

Anyway, I've argued a lot more than I care to in this game already. Almost all of it had been based off a bad late switch off an incorrect vote count. Oh well, good work spinning it without being heavy-handed wolves.

As I said before, no idea if I'll be on before deadline, but no way I'm changing my vote, and not going to vote nightfall in case the village wakes up. A nightfall at this point loses the game for us.

[The Jackal]

If you are a villager the village has played an epicly crappy game with their late movements and then resulting lynch decisions.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by J23

Well, the first person in that run you point out Kwhit is MartinD. Is there any scenario where you think that he and I are both wolves here?

I've thought about that, and it's possible, but not likely. I think the more likely scenario is that CrimsonFox and/or RendeR saw an opportunity to move their vote and perhaps save you when MartinD unvoted you (for whatever reason).

So that's part of the reason for my vote - in addition to your vote switch on day 2 that killed the chance of us locating the warlock earlier.