The Checkdown Browns - an evolving FOF 2007 dynasty

[QuikSand]

2018 Rookie Draft

Okay, need to shake off my free agent foibles, and just replenish with a good draft. We are two players short on the OL to be legal, so that’s now a need position. We also should be looking for a usable wide receiver, too – that’s a need short term and long, as Willett is still good, and the only other playable guy we have is Sapolu, who looks like a nice #2 for this offense, but not a #1 at all.

I judge that the OT position is deep enough that we can get someone usable later, so I plunge in for a receiver in the first round, hopefully getting in Horace Buckner the next guy who can step into WR Willett’s shoes.

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj Dash  ST  BP  Agil  Bjump  PS  Dev  AP
1.19 WR  Horace Buckner        6.1 6.4 4.44+ 15+ 12  7.03  08-10  49  43%   3
2.18 LT  Freddie Benton        5.4 5.9 5.17+ 41! 34+ 7.80  8-11+  --  24%   3
3.17 OLB Albert Zimmerman      5.5 5.3 4.57+ 38+ 23+ 7.12! 9-02   33  48%   2
4.16 traded to MIN for 6,6,7                                                1
5.15 LT  Benjamin McGarigle    4.8 5.3 4.93! 47! 25  7.91  7-08   --  28%   1
6.12 DT  Lorenzo Fox           4.6 5.0 5.07  25+ 31  7.55+ 9-05+  --  24%   0
6.17 S   Junior Wheeler        4.7 4.4 4.59  35+ 18+ 7.39  8-06-  48+ 53%   0
6.19 RB  Jeremy Malone         4.7 5.0 4.55+ 27+ 14  7.59- 9-05-  21  45%   0
7.02 ILB Erik Stearsman        4.3 4.2 4.83  46! 24  7.60  8-02-  21- 27%   0
7.18 QB  Martin Clemons        4.6 5.2 4.82  32   9  7.64  8-08   84+ 19%   0

LB Zimmerman is a very low-bars, good-combines guy who ought to creep. Playing ILB, he might have a chance to get onto the field a bit, and might even get a starting job next season, when both my current starters come due for new contracts.

The trade down is just to grab more bodies – we spend the standard 1 AP for the 4th round slot, but pick up three late round picks from Minnesota, and stock ourselves up with a few low-grade reserves, at least. Nothing too special there, I don’t expect – DT Fox appears decent, S Wheeler will move to corner, RB Malone has decent bars, LB Stearsman has some good indicators (maybe a switch to DE?) and QB Clemons has a bar profile like other guys we have speculated on.

So, bottom line here is we get out of this draft with 9 players for only 10 AP.

[QuikSand]

2018 Late Free Agency

Well, WR Horace Buckner arrives on the roster as 40/65, not a bad start. The plan, fairly obviously, is to slot him at FL behind Willett, and to have him assume the go-to role in the next season or two. LT Freddie Benton arrives as 25/57, and barring a camp disaster, he starts opening day.

By my count, we have 7 AP left (including 2PA freed up by capping out LB Tate) – I think I had some bad math earlier there, but this isn’t as bad as we had feared. We have 49 players on contract right now, and I think this should work out fine. We may even end up with 20% of the salary cap clear, which would give us even more AP latitude.

Without adding a rookie at DE, I feel I need one more body there, and re-up with DE Mitch McKnight, who will help with cohesion if not a lot else at this point.

1 – Offer any other FA player a one year contract (DE McKnight)
1 – Sign a FA rookie player (FB Fox)
1 – Sign a FA rookie player (S Junker)

So, we bring 52 into training camp…

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Huffman, Michael              Cleveland        RCB	-10
Junker, Ricky                 Cleveland        LCB	-7
Chandler, Max                 Cleveland        LT	-7
McKnight, Mitch               Cleveland        RDE	-6
Castillo, Devin               Cleveland        RT	-6
Stearsman, Erik               Cleveland        MLB	-5
Willett, Amos                 Cleveland        FL	-4
Kibble, Shawn                 Cleveland        LCB	-4
Buchanan, Lamar               Cleveland        TE	-4
Spetz, Kendall                Cleveland        NT	-3


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Fox, Lorenzo                  Cleveland        NT	10
Zimmerman, Albert             Cleveland        WILB	6
Tate, Carlton                 Cleveland        SLB	1
Ulbricht, Conrad              Cleveland        FS	1
Smith, Herman                 Cleveland        C	1
Wheeler, Junior               Cleveland        RCB	1
Sapolu, Lamont                Cleveland        SE	1
Novack, Leslie                Cleveland        WLB	1
Anagnostis, Archie            Cleveland        RB	1
Hurst, Jorge                  Cleveland        RG	1

Well – again, a lot of veterans dropping points. Disappointed to see LB Stearsman there, too, I had a feeling he might turn upward here. But overall, still nothing tragic there.

NT Fox gives us a shocking bump, and put himself right into the mix for playing time. And LB Zimmerman had a ways to go, but he reinforces my hunch that he was worth the fairly early pick.

[QuikSand]

2018 Season

Well, this ought to be a test of the importance of an offensive line. I don’t really know what’s up with the team overall – but running behind probably the most talented lines in the league (and one with high cohesion) has served Archie very well. Now, we will see how well he (and we) can do behind a much less organized group.

I have one management issue on my hands – LB Brant Binkow is pissed about playing time, and he’s in his walk year. Without starting him, he won’t re-sign, period – and I think he’s good enough to commit to for another contract. I think the best place is the weak side blitzbacker, so I move him there where he will auto-start ahead of longtime sackmaster Dustin Francis, I believe.

Anyway, there’s still a lot to like on this team, the offensive line notwithstanding. We’ll see if we regain a top spot among the contenders, or if we really are relegated to the middling levels once again. Turnovers seem to be the key to a lot of that, we’ll see what happens.


We get paved in our opener by Pittsburgh, not a good sign. A –5 turnover margin isn’t so hot either. In my auto-depth charting, I sometimes get surprises, and the latest one seems to be TE Tony Burke stepping in as maybe our #1 target for this year. He and his solid ratings have leapt him ahead of Rufus Gerth for the #2 TE job, it seems, and in the first game that yielded 8 targets for Burke (3 for Buchanan, the #1 TE but mostly a blocking monster). Our top two receivers had a total of 5 targets on the day. Not a bad thing, just a shift I didn’t see coming.

At 0-3, we are looking at a long season, it seems. We finally pick off a win, but it’s clearly not going to be a very good season here. I think last season I bemoaned settling for 5-3 at the halfway point… now, we’re 2-6. Just awful. I decide the season is a lost cause, and sit down QB Hoffman to give Ike Summers a look in the saddle. Hoffman has a “avoid rush” rating of zero, and behind this line, maybe that’s a serious problem – he was on target for 44 sacks, about twice his usual number.

Anyway, the season is indeed lost… Archie is basically fine (but not great), but the wheels have come off most everything else.

Front Office Football 2007
2018 Summary for Cleveland Browns
   
Year                2018                                      
Record              4-12                                      
Winning Pct.        .250                                      
All-Time            101-105-2                                 
Winning Pct.        .490                                      
Playoffs            6-3                                       
Playoff Visits      4                                         
Bowl Wins           1                                         
Head Coach          Ricky Dodge                               
Record              39-30                                     
Winning Pct.        .565                                      
Off. Coord.         J. Luong                                  
Def. Coord.         W. Perry                                  
   
Cleveland Browns        Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         30.9      6           
Rushing Yards           134.5     3           
Yards Per Carry         4.36      6           
Pass Attempts           26.8      32          
Completions             17.9      28          
Completion Pct.         66.8      6           
Passing Yards           179.8     30          
Yards Per Attempt       6.72      14          
Yards Per Catch         10.06     26 (T)      
Total Yardage Gained    302.1     25          
3rd Down Conversions    42.2      9           
Points Per Game         17.6      21          
Pass Rush Pct.          17.7      25 (T)      
Pass Defense Pct.       40.6      26          
Turnovers               31        27 (T)      
Turnover Margin         -12       30          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         31.3      29          
Rushing Yards           120.8     24          
Yards Per Carry         3.86      11          
Pass Attempts           31.1      6           
Completions             21.4      21          
Completion Pct.         68.8      31          
Passing Yards           217.6     13          
Yards Per Attempt       7.01      26          
Yards Per Catch         10.18     6           
Total Yardage Gained    322.9     17          
3rd Down Conversions    47.1      32          
Points Per Game         20.9      20          
Pass Rush Pct.          16.3      2 (T)       
Pass Defense Pct.       40.8      8           
Turnovers               19        28 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     7     at PIT        30      
2     9     ATL           17      
3     23    JAX           24      
5     21    DEN           22      
6     23    OAK           17      
7     16    at SDO        24      
8     21    at KCY        19      
9     24    at BAL        38      
10    0     PIT           20      
11    32    CIN           6       
12    10    at NOS        27      
13    20    at MIA        23      
14    34    CAR           7       
15    21    BAL           24      
16    21    at TBY        26      
17    0     at CIN        10      
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
13 A. Hoffman           QB    196   135   1370  6.99  9     4     95.4    
19 I. Summers           QB    162   108   1118  6.90  5     4     86.4    
18 R. Kanell            QB    70    43    389   5.56  3     3     72.8    
**Team                  ---   428   286   2877  6.72  17    11    88.3    
$$Opp                   ---   497   342   3482  7.01  25    12    95.3    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
17 A. Anagnostis        RB    380   1685  4.43  7     10      
21 H. Money             RB    64    221   3.45  4     2       
**Team                  ---   494   2152  4.36  13    30      
$$Opp                   ---   501   1932  3.86  9     17      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
44 T. Burke             TE    91    65    825   12.69 9.07  4     2       
17 A. Anagnostis        RB    69    52    368   7.08  5.33  1     3       
8 A. Willett            WR    73    49    638   13.02 8.74  1     5       
46 L. Buchanan          TE    42    27    223   8.26  5.31  1     1       
87 H. Buckner           WR    34    24    286   11.92 8.41  2     2       
89 R. Gerth             TE    45    23    230   10.00 5.11  1     0       
47 L. Stanton           FB    29    19    119   6.26  4.10  0     1       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
40 S. Levine            S     100   37    0.0   1     5     8     82.0    
94 B. Davidson          ILB   92    29    2.0   3     1     3     74.8    
53 C. Tate              OLB   74    20    3.0   1     0     2     69.8    
57 V. Shapiro           ILB   72    12    1.0   0     0     2     71.3    
28 S. Kibble            CB    61    23    1.0   1     3     14    78.8    
23 O. Voss              S     49    29    0.0   1     2     10    80.9    
92 M. Furman            DT    48    19    2.0   6     0     0     82.2    
24 D. Hills             CB    47    10    0.0   0     1     5     74.7    
95 K. Richard           DE    42    15    8.5   8     0     0     79.9    
91 B. Binkow            OLB   35    22    6.0   11    0     0     79.5    
58 L. Novack            OLB   28    12    1.0   1     0     2     77.0    
73 M. McKnight          DE    22    12    3.5   5     0     0     81.7    
52 A. Zimmerman         ILB   22    8     0.0   1     0     1     69.6    
93 D. Francis           OLB   21    11    2.0   1     0     0     78.6    
30 M. Huffman           CB    21    13    0.0   0     0     0     72.3    
96 L. Fox               DT    19    8     1.0   1     0     0     82.5    
43 C. Ulbricht          S     18    4     0.0   0     0     2     74.8    

We have the action points available to do two renegotiations. The candidates are T Castillo, RB Anagnostis, and LB Brian Davidson. I decide to keep it simple, lock up the last good tackle we have, and we’ll keep Archie on board during his remaining peak years. Costly, yes, but manageable, especially after this offseason.

[QuikSand]

Well, this is likely a postscript. Not that anyone has really been following.

Weird happening in this career... we dump one year and end up with pick 1.3, and I have actually played out (but not posted) the game up to the point of that draft pick. By happenstance, the draft turned out to be massively top heavy, and even with two stud QB off the board, at pick three there are guys I'd very comfortably label as 5-stars at WR, CB and OT, as well as a solid 4-star QB. Sitting there and deciding what to do sort of made this whole career unravel in my mind, for some reason. The "play to win" thing to do was fairly clear -- I could decide between the QB and the WR. But doing so would basically oblige me to unravel the concept of this team -- no point investing a ton into the OL/TE base for a running game if we're just going to fall into the same ol' routine of realying on talent at QB/WR to win games.

And once I pulled back the curtain that I'm really not trying my best to win... it gets a lot harder to continue with all the effort to document and play on. I could just take the stud LT (a defensible pick in football terms, if not in FOF terms) and go on, but I'd know that I actively skipped over the best interest of my team, and somehow that undermines what I'm doing.

I'm still fairly sold on the AP system as the best effort I've made toward the elusive goal of "play all out to win and still face challenges" - but this environment (the OPU start in particular) really undermined that. Essentially this turned into a game of "only get players from your own drafts" which is fine, and confining enough to make the development process a bit slower, but all in all this wasn't terribly challenging -- I was routinely ending up seasons with a handful of AP left to do some casual renegotiations, even with what I expected to be a very tight AP budget of 50 per season.

Live and learn. A bad couple nights of online poker pushed me toward thinking this was a worthwhile thing to do with some of my free time. Looks like I'm back off the wagon, and likely done here.

[nfg22]

It was a good read and I did follow. I always enjoy seeing running first teams as I can never seem to make a dominant one with enough carries and good YPC. Thanks QS.