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Old 03-08-2010, 03:44 PM   #101
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
I agree completely with Lathum and Kwhit. They've explained the reasons very well, so I won't rehash them, but I will say one of the strengths of my game is mid to late in the game when looking back at all the votes from the early days and noticing patterns and what not. Having pre determined day 1 votes makes that more difficult and is not helpful for the village day 1 or later in the game.

At this point, I lean towards voting Poli or EF. My gut so far tells me PB is a villager.
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Old 03-08-2010, 03:49 PM   #102
ntndeacon
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Location: Alabama
And certainly there is no qualm with voting quiet people just to vote them at the start.
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Old 03-08-2010, 03:52 PM   #103
Telle
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
Well I'm heading out soon and I don't know whether or not I'll get home from crochet class in time for deadline, so I need to put a vote in now. I've tend to prefer a three-way vote on Day 1, so:

vote The Jackal
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Old 03-08-2010, 03:54 PM   #104
Telle
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
Votes as of post #103:

2 - EagleFan - PudeuFrad (40), ntndeacon (57)
2 - The Jackal - Autumn (56), Telle (103)
1 - Danny - Poli (61)
3 - Poli - Lathum (63), EagleFan (66), KWhit (91)

Yet to vote: Danny, J23, Jackal

Everyone has checked in.
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:03 PM   #105
ntndeacon
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Location: Alabama
I am starting to come to the conclusion EF isn't bad. (at least as a day one type conclusion)
Unvote EagleFan
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:05 PM   #106
ntndeacon
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and note Eaglefans vote shuld be on Lathum not Poli
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:05 PM   #107
EagleFan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Telle View Post
Votes as of post #103:

2 - EagleFan - PudeuFrad (40), ntndeacon (57)
2 - The Jackal - Autumn (56), Telle (103)
1 - Danny - Poli (61)
3 - Poli - Lathum (63), EagleFan (66), KWhit (91)

Yet to vote: Danny, J23, Jackal

Everyone has checked in.

I voted Lathum.
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:07 PM   #108
Telle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntndeacon View Post
and note Eaglefans vote shuld be on Lathum not Poli

Thanks for catching that.
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:08 PM   #109
Telle
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
Hmmm.. and evidently my comment on making it a three-way race no longer makes sense in light of that correction to my spreadsheet. Ah well.. it's Day 1.. The Jackal is just as good of a candidate as any of us.
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:10 PM   #110
Telle
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
Votes as of post #109:

1 - EagleFan - PurdueBrad (40)
2 - The Jackal - Autumn (56), Telle (103)
1 - Danny - Poli (61)
2 - Poli - Lathum (63), KWhit (91)
1 - Lathum - EagleFan (66)

Yet to vote: Danny, J23, Jackal
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:14 PM   #111
EagleFan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
I agree completely with Lathum and Kwhit. They've explained the reasons very well, so I won't rehash them, but I will say one of the strengths of my game is mid to late in the game when looking back at all the votes from the early days and noticing patterns and what not. Having pre determined day 1 votes makes that more difficult and is not helpful for the village day 1 or later in the game.

At this point, I lean towards voting Poli or EF. My gut so far tells me PB is a villager.

There are just as many theories about day one votes as there are day one votes. How are you leaning towards Poli? He is just as likely a wolf or villager as anyone else and his vote doesn't mean a thing one way or the other.

Voting him just because of his vote is equally bad, or actually worse, than his day one vote.

Over the past 5 games that I have been a villager (not counting any of the wolf games as I obviously wasn't worried abou deciphering anything in those games) I tried to base my votes off early voting patterns in 4 of them. I was dead wrong every time. In the 5th game I went back to reading posts and what people were saying and by day 3 I had picked up 2 of the 3 wolves (though wasn't believed). People put WAY too much stock on voting patterns.

This has even been discussed in other threads (how the wolves have gotten so much better at disguising any of their early votes) but we go right back to worrying about early voting patterns?

Look for inconsistencies or people trying to shove their beliefs down other players throats and that will help more that worrying about early voting patterns.
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:20 PM   #112
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
Over the past 5 games that I have been a villager (not counting any of the wolf games as I obviously wasn't worried abou deciphering anything in those games) I tried to base my votes off early voting patterns in 4 of them. I was dead wrong every time. In the 5th game I went back to reading posts and what people were saying and by day 3 I had picked up 2 of the 3 wolves (though wasn't believed). People put WAY too much stock on voting patterns.

Not to toot my own horn as it is a strength of my game, but almost every game looking at voting patterns helps me find a wolf. Last game, it narrowed my choices to Autumn and PB on day 3 I believe. If Autumn doesn't duke it away from PB or If people followed me on PB the day Poli was lynched, the village wins that game.

I won't name all the games, but needless to say, voting history helps me significantly in almost every game that I live long enough in.
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:38 PM   #113
PurdueBrad
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Location: DeKalb, IL
I will say this, my vote was not necessarily pre-determined but it also wasn't (make sense?). Here's how I look at my day 1 voting:

1. Danny- not voting D1 because I've helped nightkill him D1 recently
2. Poli- figured enough people were after him for his strategy
3. Telle- I've been responsible for several early lynchings/killings of Telle when we play and I usually end up being suspicious of her
4. Lathum- last game, duking, nuff said
5. Purduebrad- come on, I love me some me
6. J23- been a good wolf partner so I give him a d1 pass this game, especially since he ended up giving his life two games ago for the good of the wolf team
7. ntndeacon- quiet but he was a candidate for me
8. Kwhit- been a good wolf partner as well but I value him as a villager a ton too
9. Autumn- two games ago he saved me, I saved him last game, maybe it's his turn to save me again. Kidding, he was a candidate
10. EagleFan- Usually votes me D1, so I could beat him to the punch. A candidate
11. Jackal- Another good wolf partner and I don't think I've played much with him lately

So my candidates came down to three before conversations started: EF, Autumn, and ntn. ntn's style is quiet though, so I can't fault him for that. That left me Autumn and EF and for the first time ever I could beat him the punch. So in a way it was pre-determined by all the previous games I've played, particularly recently, and partly based on who was specifically in this game when we got under way.
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Old 03-08-2010, 04:38 PM   #114
PurdueBrad
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Ooops, first sentence should say: vote was not necessarily pre-determined but also was.
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:17 PM   #115
Poli
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
I love being the tip of the spear in this game. I hope I become the day 1 lynch every game. That would be awesome.

DV said not to reveal about something, but I didn't understand it.

Just so you know, I'm Johnny Cage, a vanilla villager. I don't see how it has any consequence whatsoever in saying who I am since that is who I am...so there you have it.
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:18 PM   #116
Poli
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
If I wasn't so stubborn, I'd vote myself, but why should I move my own vote when it's not me who sucks?
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:22 PM   #117
ntndeacon
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
Poli we know what roles go with what names.
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:29 PM   #118
ntndeacon
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
I sort of hate doing this, as I would prefer another candidate out there. I am going to put my vote on The Jackal. It is time to get this narrowed down a bit. hopefully others will make it a little closer. than 3-1 (yes I am ignoring the votes on Poli at the moment.)

Vote the Jackal
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:33 PM   #119
Lathum
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Join Date: Dec 2001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poli View Post
If I wasn't so stubborn, I'd vote myself, but why should I move my own vote when it's not me who sucks?

Sucks?
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:36 PM   #120
The Jackal
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
Suppose I have to vote self defense, heading out to dinner, will check back to see what goes down.

VOTE POLI
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:37 PM   #121
The Jackal
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
I just read Poli's reveal.. first of all there aren't any vanilla villagers, and secondly Cage is a good one to pick to reveal as because the only way the power can be proven is by surviving a NK?
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:38 PM   #122
The Jackal
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Location: New Hampshire
DV - do the wolves know what roles aren't in the game?
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:38 PM   #123
The Jackal
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
I'll try and check back before 9 to see if it makes sense to revisit my vote.
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:57 PM   #124
EagleFan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
I will say this, my vote was not necessarily pre-determined but it also wasn't (make sense?). Here's how I look at my day 1 voting:

1. Danny- not voting D1 because I've helped nightkill him D1 recently
2. Poli- figured enough people were after him for his strategy
3. Telle- I've been responsible for several early lynchings/killings of Telle when we play and I usually end up being suspicious of her
4. Lathum- last game, duking, nuff said
5. Purduebrad- come on, I love me some me
6. J23- been a good wolf partner so I give him a d1 pass this game, especially since he ended up giving his life two games ago for the good of the wolf team
7. ntndeacon- quiet but he was a candidate for me
8. Kwhit- been a good wolf partner as well but I value him as a villager a ton too
9. Autumn- two games ago he saved me, I saved him last game, maybe it's his turn to save me again. Kidding, he was a candidate
10. EagleFan- Usually votes me D1, so I could beat him to the punch. A candidate
11. Jackal- Another good wolf partner and I don't think I've played much with him lately

So my candidates came down to three before conversations started: EF, Autumn, and ntn. ntn's style is quiet though, so I can't fault him for that. That left me Autumn and EF and for the first time ever I could beat him the punch. So in a way it was pre-determined by all the previous games I've played, particularly recently, and partly based on who was specifically in this game when we got under way.

Not the greatest defense of oneself to be honest, pointing out how good of a wolf partner some have been as the reason for not voting against.

Actually, the reason for this post is that again you say I usually vote for you on day one. I have not voted for you on day one in almost a year.
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Old 03-08-2010, 05:58 PM   #125
Poli
FOFC Survivor
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
I just read Poli's reveal.. first of all there aren't any vanilla villagers, and secondly Cage is a good one to pick to reveal as because the only way the power can be proven is by surviving a NK?

Umm, I know what my PM said, and it said I'm a vanilla villager. Are you saying we have other stuff going on in the rules?

Well, that sucks.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:00 PM   #126
Poli
FOFC Survivor
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
Johnny Cage: A martial arts superstar trained by great masters around the world Johnny Cage has joined Raiden to defeat Shao Kahn as well as prove to the world that he is the great fighter he portrays in his films. Since Johnny needs to keep himself healthy for photo shoots he always travels with a personal medical team on hand. If he is the night kill target his team will be able to save him from death, but since he will have depleted theirs supplies he may only do this once.


Well I'll be danged. Why would I get told I'm a vanilla villager if I'm not.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:00 PM   #127
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Sorry, I wasn't here as much as I htought I was going to be. Have to get the kids to bed. I will be on before deadline I hope.

However, I'm going to switch my vote now in case it can count. The player who's pinged me in day one the most is not on the vote list now, but we have two hours. When I come back I'll switch it away if need be. My son is dragging me out of here, so I can't explain any more.

unvote jackal
vote ntndeacon
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:03 PM   #128
Poli
FOFC Survivor
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
Heh, just looked at my PM again. FWIW, it says I'm Johnny Cage and a vanilla villager...and then I have a half naked picture of myself with black and blue pants and I guess gloves as well.

Not the Johnny Cage I remember from my youth, but so be it.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:04 PM   #129
Poli
FOFC Survivor
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
As long as I can force others to predetermine their votes with my own, then the power is mine and I'll warp this game as much as I can.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:09 PM   #130
EagleFan
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Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
As of 120:

EagleFan 1 - PurdueBrad (41)
Lathum 1 - EagleFan (66)
The Jackal 2 - Telle (103), ntndeacon (118)
Danny 1 - Poli (61)
Poli 3 - Lathum (63), KWhit (91), The Jackal (120)
ntndeacon 1 - Autumn (127)
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:09 PM   #131
Poli
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
You know, it's a good thing I wasn't told I was a vanilla villager and then turn out I was the seer.

Shoot, had I known I had the nk protection going on, I wouldn't have said anything.

Thanks alot, DV!
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:12 PM   #132
PurdueBrad
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EF, it really has been a long time since you voted me D1. I'm amazed, feels like it was just yesterday! But looks like I'll be moving for relevancy anyway.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:18 PM   #133
EagleFan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
EF, it really has been a long time since you voted me D1. I'm amazed, feels like it was just yesterday! But looks like I'll be moving for relevancy anyway.

If it will make you feel better I'll change to you.

Actually, there has been one curious play that I would like to explore and it is not related to you at all.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:29 PM   #134
PurdueBrad
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Location: DeKalb, IL
I think there are three candidates with 2 votes each. I will

unvote EF
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:30 PM   #135
PurdueBrad
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Correct that, Poli has 3, and two candidates have 2.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:31 PM   #136
Poli
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
unvote danny
vote lathum

See? I made a funny. Good thing that doesn't count.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:31 PM   #137
PurdueBrad
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Correct that again, I misread the post # in EF's vote count.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:33 PM   #138
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
As of 130:

EagleFan 1 - PurdueBrad (41)
Lathum 1 - EagleFan (66)
The Jackal 2 - Telle (103), ntndeacon (118)
Danny 1 - Poli (61)
Poli 3 - Lathum (63), KWhit (91), The Jackal (120)
ntndeacon 1 - Autumn (127)

NM, I'm not crazy, although I'm talking to myself here as Poli makes fake vote switches. I corrected the above to say 130 instead of 120, so this is our current count. PLUS I've now unvoted.

Lathum 1 - EagleFan (66)
The Jackal 2 - Telle (103), ntndeacon (118)
Danny 1 - Poli (61)
Poli 3 - Lathum (63), KWhit (91), The Jackal (120)
ntndeacon 1 - Autumn (127)
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:34 PM   #139
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
So I can push Poli further ahead, tie it with Jackal, or take one of the two candidates with votes into a tie for second. For now, I'll tie things up:

vote Jackal
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:39 PM   #140
Poli
FOFC Survivor
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
That's what I'm talking about, Team Russia representing!
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:57 PM   #141
EagleFan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
Not to toot my own horn as it is a strength of my game, but almost every game looking at voting patterns helps me find a wolf. Last game, it narrowed my choices to Autumn and PB on day 3 I believe. If Autumn doesn't duke it away from PB or If people followed me on PB the day Poli was lynched, the village wins that game.

I won't name all the games, but needless to say, voting history helps me significantly in almost every game that I live long enough in.

So keep you around long enough and you can tell by random day one votes who is a wolf?

I will bet the house on it that those voting histories lean heavily towards day 2, 3, etc... and the day 1 voting history that you pick up on are the changes or lack of changes. None of this has anything to dowith someone's first day one vote.



You've all agreed that...
1) A villager has no idea who to vote for on day one.
2) A wolf does.

In that case. If Poli is a villager, his vote on Danny is just as worthless for us to analyze if he randomly decided Danny or decided before the game.

But, if Poli is a wolf his vote for Danny makes it harder for us to find him.

So, please, Poli, if you are a wolf make it easier for us...


That is the arguement in a nutshell.


There you have it. Please wolves!!!! Please make it easier to find you!!!
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:03 PM   #142
EagleFan
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DV, what is the ruling on a tie? No lynch or a tie breaker mechanic?
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:03 PM   #143
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Just catching up now. I ws all set to vote for Poli with all the bickering, but I believe him in the Johnny Cage confused reveal of sorts, so I don't want to see him lynched (I'll let the wolves do that tonight most likely).
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:03 PM   #144
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
I will be around to move my vote, so I'm not going to move it right away. I won't leave it on an outlier though.
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:06 PM   #145
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
I'm hoping NTN or someone else catches on. Frankly right now I don't imagine either Jackal or Poli are wolves. Both of them made comments that make me believe they are villagers who just haven't read the rules closely.
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:07 PM   #146
J23
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vote the jackal

putting my vote here for now to not kill Johnny Cage.
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:11 PM   #147
EagleFan
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As of 146:

Lathum 1 - EagleFan (66)
The Jackal 4 - Telle (103), ntndeacon (118), PurdueBrad (139), J23 (146)
Danny 1 - Poli (61)
Poli 3 - Lathum (63), KWhit (91), The Jackal (120)
ntndeacon 1 - Autumn (127)
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:12 PM   #148
Poli
FOFC Survivor
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
I'll say this: I didn't read the rules at all, particularly after I was told I was a vanilla villager. Hence, the question earlier on why shouldn't I just reveal?

I actually thought I was getting a "title" with no meaning whatsoever. So why not reveal? That was the reason I asked the question.
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:13 PM   #149
EagleFan
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Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
unvote Lathum

vote ntndeacon


Let's see what a 3rd candidate into the mix does for us.
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:14 PM   #150
EagleFan
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As of 149:

The Jackal 4 - Telle (103), ntndeacon (118), PurdueBrad (139), J23 (146)
Danny 1 - Poli (61)
Poli 3 - Lathum (63), KWhit (91), The Jackal (120)
ntndeacon 2 - Autumn (127), EagleFan (149)
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