2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[weegeebored]

Justify won't be Big Brown low, but probably like California Chrome -- right around 3-5 I would think. I suppose it depends on who is going to run in the Preakness. If it's a bunch of ALW types then expect 1-9 on Justify. I have a bad feeling that if Justify wins the Preakness he won't win the Belmont. Wasn't it Smarty Jones who got unduly pressed by two horses in his bid for the TC? IIRC, Jerry Bailey took a lot of heat moving up and pressing SJ, and something like that could happen again. Or maybe because of American Pharoah, jockeys won't try to compromise Justify's chance should he get it.

[JAG]

Might be of interest to people here if you haven't already seen it:

The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code - Bloomberg

[weegeebored]

Rumor has it that Justify has a rear left leg issue, maybe a cracked heel, a bruised hoof, maybe pastern dermatitis (scratches), something. I hope it's nothing serious.

[digamma]

4/11 for Justify this morning.

[QuikSand]

1. Quip (12-1)
2. Lone Sailor (15-1)
3. Sporting Chance (30-1)
4. Diamond King (30-1)
5. Good Magic (3-1)
6. Tenfold (20-1)
7. Justify (1-2)
8. Bravazo (20-1)

I have not seen PP data yet, but both QUIP and BRAVAZO are credible front-running types, so JUSTIFY should not just get to romp out to a super easy lead. I think both of those two are modest overlays at the morning line odds above. 3-1 doesn't feel like it's rich enough for GOOD MAGIC, to me.

[QuikSand]

JUSTIFY pounded down to 1-5. GOOD MAGIC at 5. Sloppy as hell.

[QuikSand]

My last bet in was “what if Quip sucks?” and I loaded up 5,6,8 behind Justify and hit the triple for two bucks. Made the day. Not my main thinking - Good Magic ran the race I expected Quip to, but got out run.

At Belmont...maybe Justify will be something like 7-5 I’d guess, not a huge short price after today.

[QuikSand]

So, JUSTIFY is 4-5 in the morning line, and your previously announced 2018BELMONTWINNERHOFBURG is already soaking up tons of buzz and is in the morning line at ... 9-2?!?!?

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...e_favorite_123

So, where's the value?

Breeding angles suggest HOFBURG looks great, but also probably support:

12-1 TENFOLD
8-1 VINO ROSSO
30-1 NOBLE INDY
(I don't know what to make of Union Rags as a sire here, he won the Belmont, but doesn't seem like a strong distance influence... but he's there for 30-1 FREE DROP BILLY... similarly for Giant's Causeway and 30-1 RESTORING HOPE and underneath on FDB)

The field is not poorly bred for distance. This field sets up a lot like last year, where there was one bloodline standout in Tapwrit, and several others who looked "okay" for the long route. Wiseguys pounded Tapwrit down to something like 5-1 IIRC, and eroded away most of his value. This year is the same, except for the presence of a heavy hitter TC possible in the mix, whose breeding does not really support him wanting to run this long.

If JUSTIFY stays around even money, and nobody else moves a lot, I could see my centerpiece bet looking something like:

4 HOFBURG
7 TENFOLD
8 VINO ROSSO
---
478
1 JUSTIFY
3 BRAVAZO
---
1345789

That's a $60 ticket for the triple, and it's worth nothing at all if Justify wins. Hrm.

[Shkspr]

You know, I can't say I've followed horse racing at all since I stopped being able to read Andrew Beyer in the Post every day, but I enjoy reading these yearly threads on the Triple Crown. However, my lack of familiarity with the field led me for one brief shining moment to believe that 2018BELMONTWINNERHOFBURG was actually the horse's name, and now I'm terribly disappointed to discover that he's just known as "Hofburg".

[QuikSand]

Fairly boring race to watch...after a half mile, with nobody pushing Justify at all, and the early pace being pretty unhurried, we all said "well, he's got no excuse." Pretty similar to the same conversation taking place with A Pharoah.

FWIW, the crowds at Belmont were not brimming the way they historically have been for a possible TC. Lovely day, racing was fine, but there was not a huge extra layer of people present to "see history." More evidence fo the overall decline in racing.

Hats off to Justify, Baffert, Smith, and the plethora of corporate owners. Big talent.

[digamma]

I also went anti-Justify, not all that different from the above suggestion. Maybe not my SMRTest decision.

Oh well, I tried to explain to my 8 year old who eats up the triple crown races how spoiled he was to see two TC winners. That part is at least fun to watch.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Fairly boring race to watch...after a half mile, with nobody pushing Justify at all, and the early pace being pretty unhurried, we all said "well, he's got no excuse." Pretty similar to the same conversation taking place with A Pharoah.

FWIW, the crowds at Belmont were not brimming the way they historically have been for a possible TC. Lovely day, racing was fine, but there was not a huge extra layer of people present to "see history." More evidence fo the overall decline in racing.

Hats off to Justify, Baffert, Smith, and the plethora of corporate owners. Big talent.

I'm a TC only kind of casual race watcher, but this was indeed the most boring TC I can imagine. Justify was just good enough so that there wasn't much doubt he'd win, but not good enough to run away from the field in a, "I can't believe I'm seeing this," way.

[QuikSand]

With JUSTIFY retired to stud (rats) the Travers has less sizzle than it might, were he running (which never seemed likely to me, anyhow).

Anyway, here's a preview:

https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...es-cheat-sheet