Werewolf XXII - Way of the Colt - Game over, congrats samurai!

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

I'm leaning with kwhit as voteworthy.

Why is that?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Mustang

Seems that me and KWhit are the only ones that haven't completely written off Blade and Qwik as potential Ninjas.

I didn't say that, I just think that too much is assumed about that night, mainly the assumption that King is a Samurai.

It's safe to say that Blade is a Samurai due to the wire in his neck. Qwik is also pretty darn trustworthy, but I'm not 100% sure about him. King, though, I'm not sure about.

There are two possibilities as I see it:

1) If Blade was the target of the attack, then I think King is a ninja because of the ninjas' choice of kills last night.

2) If King was the target of the attack, then the King is a Samurai.

I think that the attack was probably aimed at King due to the star in his door, but I'm not sure. If that's true, then the ninjas made a mistake in not taking him out last night.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by saldana

or we are dealing with some ninja that havent got alot of experience as the bad guys, and there is no evil genius (actually geniuses) like last game

Originally Posted by KWhit

That's possible, but it seems pretty obvious to me that ninjas would want to leave all the unknowns alive as long as possible so we samurai might do their dirty work for them.

While countering his point you made if for him.

[kingfc22]

Ok, trying to catch up and last night sucked. My first thought was that we got no description of either path or packer, not even a mighty sword.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

A little color coded chart with voting patterns. I also have a few notes towards the bottom. Click on the chart to expand

I'm a visual learner. Nice job on the above chart

[kingfc22]

Oh yea, 9 PM works for me.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

I bet you say that to all the guys. One person I'm wondering about is Eaglesfan. Besides engaging in an antagonistic battle with you, which was way out of character for him, he really hasn't said much.

I was somewhat quiet on the first day because I was becoming enraged by Blade's antics (I don't think I was the only one.) I let my anger get the best of me the next day and I had a regrettable explosion. I've now quieted down because I was getting so enraged by Blade's antics, that it was detracting from my reasoning. I'm just trying to reason things through logically now and help my fellow Samurai. If I have a great insight, I'll be sure to share it.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

he was actually against me the past few days and is now agreeing with me...ive noted it but didnt really want to talk about it lol...but now that its out there, yes...hes one of my most suspected(i told you guys, i dont always accuse those who im most suspicious of)

See my above post. I was arguing with you out of anger. I'm trying not to let my anger drive the game. You've made good arguments for the most part the last day or so. That is why I've been agreeable. I find it ironic that my trying to control my emotions and help the team makes me suspicious.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

See my above post. I was arguing with you out of anger. I'm trying not to let my anger drive the game. You've made good arguments for the most part the last day or so. That is why I've been agreeable. I find it ironic that my trying to control my emotions and help the team makes me suspicious.

As i stated with wednesday and others like mustang, anger on day one was a solid cover if you were a wolf...it gave anyone who wanted it a perfect reason to vote for a villager day one...just saying

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

See my above post. I was arguing with you out of anger. I'm trying not to let my anger drive the game. You've made good arguments for the most part the last day or so. That is why I've been agreeable. I find it ironic that my trying to control my emotions and help the team makes me suspicious.

No, it was you losing your temper that was suspicious. I just found it suprising.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

As i stated with wednesday and others like mustang, anger on day one was a solid cover if you were a wolf...it gave anyone who wanted it a perfect reason to vote for a villager day one...just saying

I'm just saying that you gave a lot of people reason to be angry which as I previously said muddled the waters of what could be obtained by day 1's voting patterns.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I'm just saying that you gave a lot of people reason to be angry which as I previously said muddled the waters of what could be obtained by day 1's voting patterns.

Yes and no...i wanted people to get angry and vote for me...allows betteer review in my mind then people voting randomly and spreading it out everywhere...looking back most of the fozzie voters are already clear...meaning the wolves played right into my plans

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

No, it was you losing your temper that was suspicious. I just found it suprising.

He struck a nerve in that his behavior reminded me of someone that I'm supervising in real life. I don't wish to bring out of game stuff back into this game, but I was/am very angry with someone in real life that I supervise. I wish I could fire this person, but I can't now because of a variety of factors. Blade's behavior reminded me of that person and I transferred my feelings to Blade (although I did find his day 1 behavior [and day 2 to a lesser extent] genuinely annoying as well.)

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Lastly on king we have desnudo and path...path is now dead, desnudo not...where you stand on king should lead to where you stand on desnudo...but seeing path die is quite interesting in regards to kings innocence...

Blade, I think this is the classic setup move. Make a night kill on someone that voted for another villager who only had a small amount of votes.

I think the ninjas are trying to have us spread the vote around to a lot of different suspects right now which only leads to a disaster like last game. I think we need to stick to a target or two and get some information out of a lynch vote.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

He struck a nerve in that his behavior reminded me of someone that I'm supervising in real life. I don't wish to bring out of game stuff back into this game, but I was/am very angry with someone in real life that I supervise. I wish I could fire this person, but I can't now because of a variety of factors. Blade's behavior reminded me of that person and I transferred my feelings to Blade (although I did find his day 1 behavior [and day 2 to a lesser extent] genuinely annoying as well.)

That makes sense. My eyebrows raised initially because I consider you to be one of the more, if not the most, even tempered people on the board.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Blade, I think this is the classic setup move. Make a night kill on someone that voted for another villager who only had a small amount of votes.

I think the ninjas are trying to have us spread the vote around to a lot of different suspects right now which only leads to a disaster like last game. I think we need to stick to a target or two and get some information out of a lynch vote.

What i want to know, which i have yet to hear from you, is what you know of that night...qwik shared, i shared, but you didnt...i would think that is a key bit of info your not giving

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Blade, I think this is the classic setup move. Make a night kill on someone that voted for another villager who only had a small amount of votes.

I think the ninjas are trying to have us spread the vote around to a lot of different suspects right now which only leads to a disaster like last game. I think we need to stick to a target or two and get some information out of a lynch vote.

I was going to post that thought last night, but decided to wait for the night kill. What I think the original plan was:

Kill King, eliminating a good player, with the added benefit of putting attention onto me and Path12. It may have been an obvious ploy, but without any other real suspects, I guarantee it would have worked.

[saldana]

i keep forgetting to post this....i have no problem with the 9cst deadline

[Blade6119]

as i leave for class

Vote Kwhit

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Yes and no...i wanted people to get angry and vote for me...allows betteer review in my mind then people voting randomly and spreading it out everywhere...looking back most of the fozzie voters are already clear...meaning the wolves played right into my plans

So once again, everyone that got mad at your antics is a wolf??

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Ok, I am checking in before I go to work. I did not see anything last night as I was in my room. All I heard was the sound of men fighting outside. I wish I did go outside though.

I want to hear what Blade has to say about all this that is if he is not unconscious.

This was my post #714. My PM from hoops told me that I did not see what happened outside my room. All I heard was the sound of men fighting. I am under the assumption that I was the target, but since you were outside my room they were not able to get to me and decided to fight you. Also the shiruken outside my room would lead me to believe that they threw that at you and since you are a highly skilled fighter were able to dodge it and that is when the fight ensued.

[kingfc22]

VOTE MUSTANG

I'm going to vote for Mustang. I think he fooled us all yesterday and some of his analysis today has been very suspect.

[Qwikshot]

I say we vote Kwhit. There has been some very suspicious arguments, especially the whole bit about implicating Blade, King or myself as ninjas. While I'm not saying it's improbable, it's about as likely as the Loch Ness Monster marrying Michael Jackson.

Mustang is close to 2nd, but I don't want a tie and I don't want a dispersal of votes...one or two contenders and go from there.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

I say we vote Kwhit. There has been some very suspicious arguments, especially the whole bit about implicating Blade, King or myself as ninjas.

When did I say you or Blade are ninjas? I have consistantly said that I think you and Blade are clean (I'm more sure of Blade than you, but you both are trustworthy, IMO). What I said was that King is not clear in my book and it's a mistake to automatically assume that he is.

It would be a big mistake to vote for me.

[Eaglesfan27]

The clinic this afternoon is going to be very busy for about the next 5 hours unless I have a lot of no-shows. However, I'm sure I'll catch up this evening and place my vote shortly after work.

[Mustang]

It'll be humorous after I leave and I'm found to be a Samurai who will be the patsy for the Ninja's..

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mustang

It'll be humorous after I leave and I'm found to be a Samurai who will be the patsy for the Ninja's..

I find it humerous you keep talking about dying and quitting...makes me think you really want to have it happen for some reason...only one i can think of is cunning wolf

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

So once again, everyone that got mad at your antics is a wolf??

Far from it...but im betting 1-2 of them are...if you think about it, its the perfect cover...and with the fozzie voters all coming up clean, the king voters dying(and king himself almost) that leaves the people who voted for me...prob, 1 wolf of the three on fozzie not clear, 2 on me, and maybe rpi who was random. But you have to admit its a matter if orobabilities, and they are vastly superior with who voted for me then others now. Fight it if you will, but those are facts

[Mustang]

I'm a Samurai, I know that and the Ninja know that and they are using the suspicion against me to get someone innocent lynched. They are definitely not going to kill me tonight given the level of suspicion on me so, the course that looks to be happening is that KWhit will go and either 1.) He is a Ninja so, I'd be next because the group seems to think that he is siding with me.. 2.) KWhit is a Samurai and I'll be #1 anyways probably tomorrow...

My only way of staying in this game more than long term is hitting on a Ninja tonight, pointing him out... gotta do something to prove I'm a Samurai..

by the way.. any guess as to how many Ninjas there are total? 4?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mustang

I'm a Samurai, I know that and the Ninja know that and they are using the suspicion against me to get someone innocent lynched. They are definitely not going to kill me tonight given the level of suspicion on me so, the course that looks to be happening is that KWhit will go and either 1.) He is a Ninja so, I'd be next because the group seems to think that he is siding with me.. 2.) KWhit is a Samurai and I'll be #1 anyways probably tomorrow...

My only way of staying in this game more than long term is hitting on a Ninja tonight, pointing him out... gotta do something to prove I'm a Samurai..

by the way.. any guess as to how many Ninjas there are total? 4?

3-4...id say 3, with either a spy or turncoat out there

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I find it humerous you keep talking about dying and quitting...makes me think you really want to have it happen for some reason...only one i can think of is cunning wolf

Well, considering I'm on everyone's short list what am I supposed to think?

[Qwikshot]

I think the whole you'll be sorry argument is pointless...of course we'll be sorry if you are samurai, but the whole thing is...we have to figure out just who it is.

I really think we narrow it down to Kwhit and Mustang tonight.

When I get home, I will further elaborate on my concerns so as to at least assuage KWhit on my reasonings, which only seems fair.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mustang

Well, considering I'm on everyone's short list what am I supposed to think?

What everyone else supposes when they are being looked at. That they can defend themselves by presenting logic. If you are self-defeatist i personally, and prob. a few others will vote you off just on bad attitude. try and help the team, not just whine, and you may find yourelf off the block. How many votes do you have on yourself right now? Thank you

[Blade6119]

Current votes:
ALAN T-Saldana, Lathum
KWHIT-Blade, Qwikshot(though i dont know if he ever unvoted tangle, whom he voted for right after night)

[Mustang]

The is a way to get post counts in the thread correct?

Like to see if there is any correlation to Path and Packer being low down on the post count board vs voting (They probably are low down)

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mustang

The is a way to get post counts in the thread correct?

Like to see if there is any correlation to Path and Packer being low down on the post count board vs voting (They probably are low down)

Both were low, yes...the only way to count is to go post by post

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Both were low, yes...the only way to count is to go post by post

Crap.. I forgot, just have to click on replies in the main screen...

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Far from it...but im betting 1-2 of them are...if you think about it, its the perfect cover...and with the fozzie voters all coming up clean, the king voters dying(and king himself almost) that leaves the people who voted for me...prob, 1 wolf of the three on fozzie not clear, 2 on me, and maybe rpi who was random. But you have to admit its a matter if orobabilities, and they are vastly superior with who voted for me then others now. Fight it if you will, but those are facts

Say what?

These are the people who voted for Fozzie:

Blade
Packerfan
Tanglewood
Qwik
Saldana
Gramm
Kingfc
Alan T

Of those, the ones that are for sure or likely clear are:
Blade, Packerfan, Qwik, and maybe Kingfc.

That leaves Tanglewood, Saldana, Gramm and Alan T. For you to say "All the Fozzie voters coming up clean" is incorrect. There are still 4 unknowns in the group that voted for Foz.


Here's the group that voted for you:

KWhit
Lathum
SirFozzie
Taz
Mr. Wednesday

Of those 1 (SirFozzie) has been proven clean. So there are 4 left in that group that are unknowns.

I think there is probably 1 wolf in each. BUT, if there are 2 wolves in either group it is likely in the group who voted for Foz because it's much more likely for the vote distribution to have been 2 out of 8 in that group than for the distribution to be 2 wolves out of 5 in the group that voted for you. My guess is that they'd want to hide their numbers better than that.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Day ones vote with analysis looking back:

Sirfozzie had myself, dubb/gramat(who i trust fully), packer(now a confirmed villager), qwik(fairly certain hes good), tyangle(i trust him)....thats a basically almost every person cleared so far...now we also have king(interesting there), alan and saldana(salanda just stared a vote against alan too)

On myself we have Kwhit(who im suspicious of right now for his part in defending mustang and leading the vote to others yesterday) Lathum who i feel is good, fozzie, taz and mr. w(both people im suspicious of, taz as a quit wolf and mr. w as a potential leader wolf).

Coder voted for mustang, and coder is somewhere in my trust field
RPI voted for qwik shot, which doesnt look good now, and RPI has been someone all game ive been watching...very possible route to take would be RPI

Lastly on king we have desnudo and path...path is now dead, desnudo not...where you stand on king should lead to where you stand on desnudo...but seeing path die is quite interesting in regards to kings innocence...

After this: King, RPI, taz/mr. w, and saldana/alan look bad...a/b means one or the other, not likely both

Alan im trusting for now as i think his vote swap was a villager as it gets

If you read that i talk about both...but having 5 clear on fozzie and one on me seems interesting, eh? That leaves 3 uncleared on fozzie, which if you read i said one is prob. bad...then 4 uncleared on me...it makes sense...and rpi is on my list...you said basically the same thing i did with the exception of tangle

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I think there is probably 1 wolf in each. BUT, if there are 2 wolves in either group it is likely in the group who voted for Foz because it's much more likely for the vote distribution to have been 2 out of 8 in that group than for the distribution to be 2 wolves out of 5 in the group that voted for you. My guess is that they'd want to hide their numbers better than that.

If i was a wolf, i dont want to be in the fozzie group as once he dies(which it was clear he was going to) everyone looks at that group...id want to be on blade, who everyone had a reason to vote for, is a group, and wasnt supposed to have any attention draw to it(assuming they targeted king)...it all makes perfect sense

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

If you read that i talk about both...but having 5 clear on fozzie and one on me seems interesting, eh? That leaves 3 uncleared on fozzie, which if you read i said one is prob. bad...then 4 uncleared on me...it makes sense...and rpi is on my list...you said basically the same thing i did with the exception of tangle

I don't follow what you're saying in this post.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I don't follow what you're saying in this post.

Read my last post and see what i said...do you still not get it?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Read my last post and see what i said...do you still not get it?

Makes more sense now. But I still think there's probably one in each group.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Makes more sense now. But I still think there's probably one in each group.

So do i...thats why i copied that other post where i say there is one in the uncleared on fozzie

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

This was my post #714. My PM from hoops told me that I did not see what happened outside my room. All I heard was the sound of men fighting. I am under the assumption that I was the target, but since you were outside my room they were not able to get to me and decided to fight you. Also the shiruken outside my room would lead me to believe that they threw that at you and since you are a highly skilled fighter were able to dodge it and that is when the fight ensued.

I honestly have a hard time with this...I dont know if hoops would send a PM like that, just saying you heared noise...everyone heared the noise...i hate to say but i dont know if i buy that

[kingfc22]

Hoops said this game would be full of incomplete information. Just look at last night, we have no information on path or packer. I don't think he would PM me saying that I was targeted since that much information would not fit in with this game.

[Alan T]

Sorry, I have been away most of the day. If learning anything last game, I know defending myself non stop is only more likely to get me dead.

as I see it right now, a few logical patterns come out to me..

If tanglewood is a ninja, you could make a good guess either Im a samurai who made a horrible mistake or I am a ninja also.

If Lathum is a ninja, you could probably also look at Grammaticus being a ninja.

If mustang is a ninja, you could probably look closer at Kwhit.

Right now, I'm not sure if any of the people above are ninjas, and I think Blade is right about them wanting to keep us guessing at who in this group to target, thats why they didn't kill anyone in the group thats already known. They want to keep the status quo so to speak.

Some observations I am looking at, Qwikshot seems pretty confident that the ninjas were not responsible for one of the two deaths last night. I'm guessing that Qwik you are our vigillente? If so, you would know which one of the two you targeted which would help us look closer at the one the ninjas killed, to figure out if that leads us anywhere. Or was that just a guess on your part?

While I still do not have any idea if Tanglewood or Lathum are ninjas, I obviously have tied my living to hoping that Tanglewood is not a ninja. I think looking in a different direction today is probably good, and I think Blade had some good comments. for now, I will

VOTE kingfc22

[Alan T]

back a little later, I'm out at a vendor today, so web access is limited until tonight

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by KWhit

That's possible, but it seems pretty obvious to me that ninjas would want to leave all the unknowns alive as long as possible so we samurai might do their dirty work for them.

I'm not so sure about that. Some thoughts about reasons for ninjas to kill a samurai, or leave him alive:
* trusted (reason to kill)
* who he has voted for (either)
* who has voted for him (either)
* canny (reason to kill)

Known quantities may be better to leave alive because they haven't yet hit on insight into the ninjas' strategy. Unknown quantities may be better to kill because of who they've voted for (to protect someone, or to frame them) -- or who's voted for them (to frame someone).

I don't have any particular insight from applying this wisdom to the kills (or attempts) that have taken place to date. Neither Path12 nor PackerFanatic really registers with me for their votes (although it probably bears reviewing the summary above), and certainly neither of them was trusted. kingfc22 was pretty quiet on the first day, although Blade did think he was a target for his own reasons, and while Blade was certainly outspoken, he also drew enough of a lynching following that I can't imagine the ninjas would have made him the primary target; far more likely that it was kingfc22.

[KWhit]

Someone who has been flying under the radar is RPI. Day one he had the only vote on Qwikshot. He moved his vote from Blade to Qwikshot (with no reason given at all) after I and Lathum voted for Blade. At the time it seemed like Blade had momentum and could challenge SirFozzie for the vote lead. Maybe he didn't like the idea of having a vote on somebody that might get voted out.

Yesterday, RPI had the only vote on Path (with no reason given). It may be nothing, but I don't like it when someone goes out of their way to vote for people that are nowhere near the vote lead and don't give any reasoning for the vote. That, combined with how quiet he has been makes me think he could be intentionally hiding in the shadows, ninja-like.