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02-13-2008, 12:17 PM
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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All-Time College Football Tournament
Well, this makes attempt #3 to complete this tournament. The first effort was swallowed by the intertubes, and the second effort got derailed by my wife's pregnancy. Fortuantely that has now resulted in a kickass son (my first after two beautiful daughters) and so we should be good to go. I'll now repeat some introductory information. One major difference will be that I will try to make it a more manageable task for myself in terms of the reporting to increase the chances of completion.
Welcome to the All-Time College Football Tournament. This simulation will be a single-elimination tournament comprised of every major college football team ever fielded. There are 12,165 entrants ranging from overall #1 seed 1971 Nebraska all the way down to #12,165 seed 1951 Northern Arizona. No matter how a team played during its season that team is now only 13 or 14 consecutive wins away from being declared college football's all-time champion. The basis for the tournament seedings and simulation results will be my historical ratings. My ratings are normalized every year and the rating that is published is a measure of the team's strength relative to the average team that year. Essentially every rating is a standard deviation value for that squad. Because of this teams can be compared from different years. For each matchup the higher-rated team's win probability (between 0 and 1) is evaluated using a z-table. A random number generator is then used and if the number generated is lower than the higher-rated team's probability then they win. Higher and they lose. A quick and dirty formula then assigns a final score to the game. Based on every team's rating the only "impossible" wins would be if that 1951 Northern Arizona team were matched up with any of our top ten squads. In every other matchup the weaker team has at least a one in a quadrillion chance of winning. So good luck to them on that one. Because there are not exactly 16,384 (or 8,192) teams in college football history some teams received byes. The top 4,219 teams were the lucky ones. Please no hate mail from fans of the #4,220 seed 1968 West Virginia Mountaineers. The tournament has been divided into 8 Superregions A-H, which have each been broken up in to 8 Regions (64 total) 1-8, which have each been further divided into 8 Subregions (512 total) A-H. For example, 1971 Nebraska will play in Sub Region A1A. For the record, the tournament is run in Excel using a macro I wrote that simulates the entire tournament in less than 10 minutes on my machine. Here is the current reporting schedule (certain to change): 2/13-2/29: Subregional Results (complete subregionals reported together) 3/3: Regional Quarterfinals 3/4: Regional Semifinals 3/5: Regional Finals 3/6: Superregional Quarterfinals 3/7: Superregional Semifinals 3/10: Superregional Finals 3/11: Tournament Quarterfinals 3/12: Tournament Semifinals 3/13: Tournament Championship Game
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings Last edited by Huckleberry : 02-13-2008 at 12:21 PM. |
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02-13-2008, 01:55 PM
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#2 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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Let's Go Deacons!
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02-26-2008, 09:34 AM
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#3 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Hi!
Results will start to be posted shortly, beginning with Subregion A1A and moving in bracket order from there.
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-26-2008, 09:41 AM
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#4 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Subregional A1A:
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Subregional A1H Code:
Subregional A1D Code:
Subregional A1E Code:
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Subregional A1C Code:
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings Last edited by Huckleberry : 02-26-2008 at 10:03 AM. |
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02-26-2008, 10:56 AM
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#5 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Okay, so the formatting is working. I will continue in this pattern although I may add more subregions per post in the future. It would take 64 posts at this rate to finish the subregional results.
We will be down to 512 teams after the subregionals.
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings Last edited by Huckleberry : 02-26-2008 at 10:56 AM. |
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02-26-2008, 03:59 PM
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#6 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Subregional A8A
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-27-2008, 09:09 AM
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#7 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Subregional A4A
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-27-2008, 04:55 PM
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#8 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Subregional A2A
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-28-2008, 02:07 PM
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#9 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Subregional A7A
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-28-2008, 10:40 PM
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#10 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: The scorched Desert
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Let's go Cougars!!
The 2000 team made a pretty good run, considering they were average at best. Can't wait for the 1984, 1996 and 2006 versions. |
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