Hurricane Sandy/Nor'easter?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

why do some of you feel the need to argue the semantics at all?

Can't we all just agree it was a monster of a storm that at best inconvenienced tens of millions and at worst destroyed the lives, and took the lives, of people.

Hello - let me introduce you to the internet.

[Buccaneer]

It's no different than the
Greatest Game of All Time
Worst Call of All Time - hi Troy
Greatest Game of All Time
Worst Storm of All Time

was the last one.

It will also be said that an earthquake hitting in LA and SF will be really, really bad even though it won't be the strongest on record but people will still say it was because of the damage in a densily populated area.

History and time have a way of obliterating people's memories, if they knew what happened in the first place.

But Lathum is right, this was a bad storm hitting at a bad location and we need to reach out to help. I did wonder, while I was watching, what would have happened if it was a Katrina hitting (cat 5 off-shore, cat 3 landfall, 903mb)? More...less...same damage?

[Comey]

Originally Posted by Lathum

why do some of you feel the need to argue the semantics at all?

bc teh webz iz serial yo

[CrimsonFox]

[Ron Mexico]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

I did wonder, while I was watching, what would have happened if it was a Katrina hitting (cat 5 off-shore, cat 3 landfall, 903mb)? More...less...same damage?

Being about 35 miles inland, I'd say the speed and timing of the storm itself would have quite the impact. We got roughed up here, but the flooding (at least in the Trenton area) was minor. The wind damage was worse than anything I had seen and had we been subject to even longer periods of the storm, we'd add stronger floods to the mix.

[DaddyTorgo]

The 2011 Report That Predicted New York's Subway Flooding Disaster

The 2011 Report That Predicted New York's Subway Flooding Disaster - Commute - The Atlantic Cities

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Logan

My parents in Marlboro NJ were told they'll likely be without power until November 8th.

I was told November 4th, but I got it back late this afternoon. We were 48 hours without power.

I feel really bad for one of my friends. His home and business were both on Long Beach Island and both are now destroyed by the water

[Ben E Lou]

Some interesting quotes in this USA Today article about the Euro model. Evidently it's not just trash-talking weather boy that says it is superior.

U.S. forecast's late arrival stirs weather tempest

I've highlighted some key passages.

4:42PM EDT October 30. 2012 - A European forecast that closely predicted Hurricane Sandy's onslaught days ahead of U.S. and other models is raising complaints in the meteorological community.

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on Oct. 23 warned that Hurricane Sandy would hit the East Coast on Monday, days ahead of other major hurricane models, which mostly saw the storm heading out into the Atlantic.

Weather models take data from satellites, weather balloons and other observations and plug them into atmospheric physics equations that computers use to march ahead in time to make storm track forecasts.

Although weather models converged remarkably well by the weekend to predict Hurricane Sandy's arrival with great accuracy, meteorologists complained of weaknesses in U.S. forecasting capability that were exposed by the better performance of the European model.

"It's embarrassing, we should have the best forecasts on the planet. And it has an economic cost," says meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington in Seattle. Hurricane Sandy's losses are now estimated at $10 billion by catastrophe-estimating firm EQECAT, in Oakland, with more than 7 million people without power in mid-Atlantic states in the storm's aftermath.

The European center's prediction was made on more powerful computers, and ran on higher-resolution models of the weather that simulated the future over longer time periods, beyond eight days, than the one employed by the federal National Weather Service. The European model is widely seen as the best at predicting hurricanes, Mass and others say, as demonstrated with Hurricane Isaac in late August.

"The U.S. does not lead the world; we are not No. 1 in weather forecasting, I'm very sorry to say that," says AccuWeather's Mike Smith, author of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather. "But the bottom line is that forecasters nailed this storm days ahead of its arrival. The people behind Europe's model should receive a Nobel Prize in physics, this was that powerful a moment in weather science."

"In general, there are reasons to believe the European model does perform better," says meteorologist Chris Davis of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. Forecasters typically rely on collections, or ensembles, of model forecasts to make storm warnings, weighing the strengths and weaknesses of each one, Davis added. That makes decisions tricky and reliant on human expertise. "This was an unusual storm, with very sensitive conditions, so perhaps in this case a model with (higher-resolution) saw things developing sooner than others."

The U.S. Global Forecast System model run by the U.S. National Weather Service switches to its highest-resolution in forecasts only when looking seven days ahead, unlike the European one, which looks ahead further.

"All the models have their strength and weaknesses," said Louis Uccellini, head of the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. He acknowledged that the European model made its East Coast prediction ahead of the U.S. and United Kingdom's meteorological service. He noted the European model was off in some of its predictions, as well, regarding where it would make landfall and low-pressure measures.

Uccellini pointed to improvements coming to the National Weather Service, which is installing more powerful computers to run fine-grained weather models around August 2013. He does say, however, that extending forecasts beyond the eight-day ones produced by Europe's model is still "up for debate" at the National Weather Service.

Mass criticized the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs the weather service, for its handling of weather satellites. The Government Accountability Office this summer noted cost overruns and failures in NOAA satellite programs designed to replace a polar weather orbiter that was killed because of cost overruns by the Obama administration in 2010. The real problem, though, is that other models use satellite data more effectively, Mass said.

While he criticizes the National Weather Service as slow-moving, Smith notes that the $991 million agency has suffered budget cuts in the past two years, with more cuts proposed this year by the White House and Congress. "Does it make any sense to cut the weather forecasting service's budget given how much weather affects the economy?" he asks.

Uccellini says that National Weather Service models have begun a move to use more satellite data in the past year. "We don't shy away from criticism or what people recommend," he says. "We shouldn't lose sight of the predictions that we nailed, for a record storm surge, record low-pressure and record snowfall that our forecasters called correctly based on how they read the models."

[General Mike]

Originally Posted by Ron Mexico

Being about 35 miles inland, I'd say the speed and timing of the storm itself would have quite the impact. We got roughed up here, but the flooding (at least in the Trenton area) was minor. The wind damage was worse than anything I had seen and had we been subject to even longer periods of the storm, we'd add stronger floods to the mix.

Totally agree with this. Somerset county, and the parts of it that typically flood badly (Manville, Bound Brook) had very little flooding if any because we didn't get the real heavy rain of past storms (Floyd, Irene).

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I feel kind of like a wuss. They just showed a part of Seaside Heights I used to walk all the time during the summers and it was ALL gone and I just started crying again.

Same here, I had a hard time seeing those images without choking up. Not just because I was born and raised on the shore, but especially because of all the family and folks I know who are living through this. It was a shocker to see the national news broadcast by the Pisces and the old Pier One--my parents live right by there.

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Got in touch with my Dad a bit ago, they are inland and evrything is fine. They have no power but nothing flooded and no major wind damage. Thanks for the kind thoughts.

Good to hear...

[Castlerock]

Incredible photo set of storm surge damage:
East Coast staggers to recover from monster storm - Yahoo! News

[M GO BLUE!!!]

This is how you properly inform people what works.

http://www.mta.info/sites/default/fi...ecoveryMap.pdf

I miss NYC.

[sterlingice]

There is something inherently cool about having your stuff together

SI

[Thomkal]

Doesn't look like the weather is going to give the Northeast a break:

Near-freezing temps add to Sandy misery; potential nor'easter looms - U.S. News

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Doesn't look like the weather is going to give the Northeast a break:

Near-freezing temps add to Sandy misery; potential nor'easter looms - U.S. News

Two of the more reliable models calling for this nor'easter to pack a significant wallop.

[Kodos]

Fantastic. Can we get our power back first, please?

[stevew]

Anyone seen Jetsin06-Ryan? I hope he's okay, but he hasn't been online(that i know of) since the storm.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by stevew

Anyone seen Jetsin06-Ryan? I hope he's okay, but
he hasn't been online(that i know of) since the storm.

Lots of people in his area still don't have power. Hopefully, that is the only issue.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Hello - let me introduce you to the internet.

\

don't you, like, say that in every thread?

Not that there's anything WRONG with that....

[Lathum]

Just talked to my sister who lives in Brick which is a town right on the fringe of some of the hardest hit areas such as Seaside and Mantiloking. She has power and cable back. The schools in her town are closed until 11/12 because they are being used as shelters for the people from those areas.

My parents are still without power and drove to PA to buy a generator, that they have to lock in the garage overnight because people are stealing them. There is a special place in hell for those people.

My In Laws are still without power in Wall and were told it may be 2 weeks. They also have a generator.

[lighthousekeeper]

my mom lives 5 blocks from the ocean in ocean township - she's still without power and so she's now staying with us. father-in-law (also ocean twp) just got power restored today - he had been staying with us.

[JetsIn06]

I live about 10 miles southwest of Sandy Hook. Still have no power and while my house (and basement that flooded during Irene) is fine, there is some absolute devastation around us. Some of these pictures are insane. I've only heard things on the crank radio we've been using.

[molson]

I was just reading in the NYTimes about the state of the South Ferry terminal. There's a little more destruction down there than I realized, it's going to be quite a while until things are back to normal.

I used to live on the north shore of Staten Island, I'd take the bus to the the ferry, take the ferry across to South Ferry, and take the subway up to midtown. I have no clue what my commute would entail if I was still there (and assuming my old building wasn't washed away, which it might have been). They probably have the express buses up and running but I bet that's a several-hour deal at the moment.

[General Mike]

Not looking forward to the NorEaster in a few days.

[grdawg]

I'm in Hoboken, NJ. We were fortunate to get power back today (been out since Monday), but still a large portion of the city is powerless. We were really lucky as our particular area did not flood nor did our garage so our car was OK. We have 2 young kids and they really handled it well, probably better than my wife and I. Hoboken really got it bad, but the community really came together. There were a few block that never lost power and they ran extension cords so people could plug their phones and a lot of places gave out food. The daily activity became going out to charge phones.

So happy to have power back, but feel bad for those that still do not.

[Lathum]

My parents generator just stopped working, no service on it until Monday

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My parents generator just stopped working, no service on it until Monday

They just bought it though. That's some serious bullshit. They should drive it back and return it.

[stevew]

I suggest anyone in the north invest in a Kerosene heater. It's kept us warm a few times when the furnace broke/we lost power. Obviously has its drawbacks but better than being cold. Get a CO detector.

[EagleFan]

Luckily the new house has a woodstove to fall back on for heat but I am having the worst trouble getting a good fire going. Used to help my dad get the fire going al lthe time back in the house they have up north jersey but that was almost 30 years ago now. Guess it's not like riding a bike.

[stevew]

Need those starter logs

[Lathum]

2.2 earthquake in NJ today

[cuervo72]

What time? I was in bed this morning and I felt what I thought was someone blasting nearby; wondered if it could have been a distant earthquake.

(ah nm - 1:19AM. What I heard/felt was closer to 6AM)

[lungs]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Luckily the new house has a woodstove to fall back on for heat but I am having the worst trouble getting a good fire going. Used to help my dad get the fire going al lthe time back in the house they have up north jersey but that was almost 30 years ago now. Guess it's not like riding a bike.

Got any diesel handy? Soak a few logs in diesel and it'll take right off. If you don't, cardboard and the smaller logs on the bottom give you the best chance.

[stevew]

Speaking of fire related things, I was trying to burn some papers the other day and I gotta say that paper doesn't burn very easily anymore. I dunno whether it's coated differently or what.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Good to see 'Secret Santa' heading out to help those on the East Coast. Most of us are used to him going around KC to give away money every year. Nice to see his message spread to other areas. I knew Mr. Stewart, the original 'Secret Santa' here in KC. He would be so excited to see how his small gestures have been carried on to others in need even after his death.

'Santa' showers $100 bills on storm-hit NJ, NY - Yahoo! News