Week 12 NFL Thread - Thanks for Giving us three games on Thursday..

[stevew]

Vernon Davis will never make the HOF. He's like the black Heath Miller.

[hoopsguy]

But Davis isn't close yet.

0 80 catch seasons (only one 70 catch)
0 1000 yard seasons (2 > 900 yards)
1 10TD season (7 and 6 are next two best)
1 Pro Bowl in 6 seasons

Witten
5 80 catch seasons (another with 79)
3 1000 yard receiving seasons (3 more with > 900)
0 10TD seasons (9 and 7 are two best)
7 Pro Bowls, 2 Time First Team All Pro

And if you were looking for someone "objective" to chime in, uber-Giants fan Lathum is taking up the cause in comparing these two.

Davis has a decent chance of having a better career than Witten, assuming a little more dynamic offense than what 49ers have had over Davis' 6 year career. But to suggest significant separation right now ... well, I think that argument can only go one way and that would be pro Witten if you are basing it on achievements to date.

"Already accomplished more HoF-wise than Witten" - to date, Davis has more notoriety to being the guy called out in the "WE WANT WINNERS!" speech than anything else. Please.

[Sun Tzu]

Meh. I'll just respectfully disagree. Davis is widely considered an elite TE in the league, and has been for a couple years. He already has a signature moment, with the last second catch in the New Orleans playoff game last year.

Witten is widely considered to...have good hands.

Again, I'm judging this solely on star power and speculation. I didn't say Davis would go to the HoF, I just said he has a better chance. If you're taking this for anything more than that, then you're reading between lines that don't exist.

:-\

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

"Already accomplished more HoF-wise than Witten" - to date, Davis has more notoriety to being the guy called out in the "WE WANT WINNERS!" speech than anything else. Please.

My thoughts exact. I think it is probably hard for niners fans, but Davis is far more remembered for being the guy who was sent to the locker room than anything he accomplished on the field.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I'd imagine very few casual football fans outside of Dallas even know who Witten is.

The ones in Tennessee know

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Lathum

He is the all time leading receiver in Cowboys history. That gets you into the HOF

I don't think that is the case.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My thoughts exact. I think it is probably hard for niners fans, but Davis is far more remembered for being the guy who was sent to the locker room than anything he accomplished on the field.

Yeah, I think we've probably got SF-tinted glasses on here. His stats are not at all flashy. I think that's mostly because of the offense he's had around him, but still. Talent wise? He's elite. Production wise? He's middle of the road at best. He does have nearly as many TD's as Witten does, though.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

Witten is widely considered to...have good hands.

Is that really how those outside of Dallas fans view him? As a Dallas fan his hands are not the first thing that comes to mind.

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Yeah, I think we've probably got SF-tinted glasses on here. His stats are not at all flashy. I think that's mostly because of the offense he's had around him, but still. Talent wise? He's elite. Production wise? He's middle of the road at best. He does have nearly as many TD's as Witten does, though.

And really, this could be me talking about Witten. I see elite when I watch him play but apparently the numbers and the national viewing audience disagrees.

[BishopMVP]

How does Witten have so few TD's? Does Dallas stay away from throwing to the 6'6 TE near the goal line for some reason? Gronk has almost as many TD's in 2.5 years (37) as Witten does his whole career.

Other fun Patriots fact - it probably won't last playing Houston, SF, Miami 2x (and Jacksonville) the last 5 games, but they're now averaging more PPG (37.0) than they did in 2007. 190 points in the last 4 games.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

How does Witten have so few TD's? Does Dallas stay away from throwing to the 6'6 TE near the goal line for some reason? Gronk has almost as many TD's in 2.5 years (37) as Witten does his whole career.

For whatever reason they tend to use Witten has the workhorse to get down the field but then decide to target the receivers on "creative" plays once they get close and then settle for a field goal. It gets frustrating because they won't utilize Witten but when it gets to crunch time they will throw to him constantly to get down the field and you sit and wonder why the hell he isn't targeted much more.

[Julio Riddols]

I wonder if there are stats regarding how often Witten is targeted in the red zone. Also, as someone who hates Dallas, Witten is near the top of the list of names that come to mind when I think of that team. Witten has been a top 5 TE most of his career in my eyes. His 7 pro bowls can attest to that.

My top 5 TE in the league as of right now:

Gronkowski
Graham
Gonzalez
Witten
Davis

Gates can't stay on the field and hasn't been very productive because of it for a couple years now. He'll retire soon probably.

Coincidentally, those are also my top 5 TE in the last 20 years as well, except that Davis drops off the list (and falls below Gates to 7th) and Sharpe takes the top spot. We are seeing some exceptional TE talent in the league right now.

[Julio Riddols]

Game Play Finder Query Results - Pro-Football-Reference.com <-- these are red zone target/completions data for the Cowboys since 2003. Crazy that Dez and Miles Austin have received 90 plus targets despite only being in the league for a few seasons each, while Witten has only 106 targets now in his 10th season.

Now I'll get the same data for Davis and Gronk.

Game Play Finder Query Results - Pro-Football-Reference.com < Davis 59 targets in 7 years. Not a huge difference, except Davis plays in a much lower scoring offense and wasn't really worth entering into the conversation of great TE's until his 4th season. As an example, Frisco has run 100 fewer pass plays and almost 200 fewer total plays in the red zone than Dallas has in the last 7 years.

Game Play Finder Query Results - Pro-Football-Reference.com < Gronkowski has an insane 62 targets in his 3 years in the league, nearly double the amount per season as Witten. New England has also run almost 200 more total plays in the red zone than Dallas in that time frame. Wow.

What I get from this data is that it is a matter of opportunity when it comes to how many touchdowns a player has. It's dumb that touchdowns even really matter that much when considering overall body of work. Witten blows Davis away from that standpoint, and lands more in the range of Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe for continuous high level production over the course of his career.

[Danny]

Gates vs. Witten is not even close. I understand the numbers other than TD are similar, but football is not like baseball where you can just look at stats. When teams went up against the Chargers, out of all the receiving options on the field, they game planned against Gates and often had him double teamed. Witten is a very good TE, but teams usually game plan to stop other players and thus he is left with 1 on 1 coverage the whole game.

[Danny]

Though I do admit Gates is not the same player now due to injuries, but for those years in his prime, it really was not close.

[Radii]

[Vince, Pt. II]

Yeah, when I mentioned Gates earlier, I meant in his career, not necessarily right now. He's clearly dropped from the top tier TE he was in the last couple of seasons.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Radii, that is a fantastic .gif. Holy crap, the head drop to the turf after he sees it picked up is just amazing

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

Game Play Finder Query Results - Pro-Football-Reference.com <-- these are red zone target/completions data for the Cowboys since 2003. Crazy that Dez and Miles Austin have received 90 plus targets despite only being in the league for a few seasons each, while Witten has only 106 targets now in his 10th season.

Now I'll get the same data for Davis and Gronk.

Game Play Finder Query Results - Pro-Football-Reference.com < Davis 59 targets in 7 years. Not a huge difference, except Davis plays in a much lower scoring offense and wasn't really worth entering into the conversation of great TE's until his 4th season. As an example, Frisco has run 100 fewer pass plays and almost 200 fewer total plays in the red zone than Dallas has in the last 7 years.

What I get from this data is that it is a matter of opportunity when it comes to how many touchdowns a player has. It's dumb that touchdowns even really matter that much when considering overall body of work. Witten blows Davis away from that standpoint, and lands more in the range of Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe for continuous high level production over the course of his career.

So 26 TDs in 59 targets is similar to 29 TDs in 106 targets? I'm not sure what you're trying to argue here, other than the Cowboys are really stupid for not giving Witten more opportunities in the red zone. I think this comes down to the idea of a baseball player getting a double with no one on, vs a double with the bases loaded. We shouldn't penalize Witten because he's only thrown to outside the red zone (mostly). Is that what you're trying to say?

[Julio Riddols]

The .gif is really sad to watch. I almost feel bad for Sanchez. I hope late in his career he is a backup somewhere with a lot of offensive talent and then the starter goes down and he gets to have one good year, just because of that .gif.

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

So 26 TDs in 59 targets is similar to 29 TDs in 106 targets? I'm not sure what you're trying to argue here, other than the Cowboys are really stupid for not giving Witten more opportunities in the red zone. I think this comes down to the idea of a baseball player getting a double with no one on, vs a double with the bases loaded. We shouldn't penalize Witten because he's only thrown to outside the red zone (mostly). Is that what you're trying to say?

Yeah. I won't argue that he has worse TD numbers overall. He just isn't given the amount of chances as others. His career red zone catch rate is actually higher than Gonzalez, too. Why it is that he gets fewer chances, I do not know. Interestingly, Witten seems to get shots inside the 10 much less with Romo than with other QB's he has played with in his career. Looking at his career TD catches: 8 from Romo of less than 10 yards, 9 from other QB's. Romo has been his QB for more than 6 seasons. I'd almost put his lack of TD's in the red zone on Romo. Hell, Kitna hit him on 4 of them in less than 10 games. In the same time frame, Romo has thrown 53 TD passes under 10 yards to other players.

Vernon Davis, on the other hand, has caught 10 from Alex Smith of less than 10 yards starting in 07, while other receivers combined caught 9.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Just looking over some numbers, and holy crap I must have erased from my memory how bad the 49ers were in the mid 2000's. They had 1,895 yards passing in 2005 AS A TEAM. The full passing line, just for laughs:

204/389, 1,895 yards, 8 TD, 21 INT

As a point of comparison, Shaun Alexander rushed for 15 yards less than the 49ers passed for as a team that year.

[Julio Riddols]

That reminds me of the Akili Smith/Scott Mitchell Bengals of 2000. 3.8 yards per attempt passing that season. Speaks volumes about how good Corey Dillon really was. He may be considered an all time great if not for being stuck on some of the worst teams in football history.

[Vince, Pt. II]

In looking over the numbers between Witten and Davis, and comparing the Cowboy and 49er offenses, I've decided that it's really, really difficult to compare even players at the same position in football. There is just way too much variability. Between offensive scheme, QB throwing the ball, playcalling, coaching, just too many variables to account for. For example, in the 7 years that Vernon Davis has been in the league, the 49ers have 17,772 passing yards. The Cowboys have 24,260, almost 7,000 more. That's more than two full seasons of yardage by the 49ers. How can a direct comparison possibly relay the story between the two players?

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

That reminds me of the Akili Smith/Scott Mitchell Bengals of 2000. 3.8 yards per attempt passing that season. Speaks volumes about how good Corey Dillon really was. He may be considered an all time great if not for being stuck on some of the worst teams in football history.

Oof. That's even worse than the Niners' 4.3.

[Julio Riddols]

Crazy thing was Dillon averaging over 4.5 yards a carry that year. That dude was a beast.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Kinda like Jeff Garcia that year as well - 4,278 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs on a 6-10 team. He posted consecutive 336 yard, 4 TD, 0 INT losses that year. Ridiculous.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

I disagree. Football has never been solely about stats. Davis has been on some of the worst offensive teams in NFL history, but that's not what has defined him. What has defined him is his "rebirth" during the Singletary era, and his off-the-charts performances in the playoffs last season. If the 49ers continue down this road, with Davis being the primary weapon in a rapidly growing passing offense, I wouldn't be surprised to see Davis widely regarded as an all-time TE.

Speculative, sure...but he's already accomplished more HoF-wise than Witten. Again, this isn't about stats, but star power. Witten is just too...meek.

Vernon Davis doesn't have a prayer. Footballs fixed number of entries each year and variety of positions make the NFL's hall of fame about how good you are compared to the guys you played with. If you weren't ever considered at that level when you played then you won't get in.

Today's passing game has totally changed things. Gonzalez and Gates will get in and that's it. Jury out on the younger guys right now.

[jbergey22]

So if the Hall of Fame is now about Star Power does this mean Tim Tebow has a better chance than Jason Witten of getting in the Hall of Fame?

I honestly cant see what the attraction is with Vernon Davis unless someone is a fan of inconsistency. Atleast with Witten you know what you are getting game in and game out. Vernon has talent but that doesnt make him more productive. Vernon could be the best TE in the league but that doesnt mean he is.

[Logan]

Remember when Schwartz was ripping on Harbaugh for not knowing the rules?

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Logan

Remember when Schwartz was ripping on Harbaugh for not knowing the rules?

Humbleness is not his strong point.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Logan

Remember when Schwartz was ripping on Harbaugh for not knowing the rules?

Originally Posted by Matthean

Humbleness is not his strong point.

I have a feeling that the 3 losing coaches from the games yesterday will all be looking for new jobs shortly athough Schwartz is probably the best bet to get another season.

[Desnudo]

Witten is like the Welker for Dallas. Gates was the prototype for Gronk type TEs. Who would take Witten over Gates at their peaks? Anyone? Teams used to gameplay for Gates. I don't think anyone does for Witten.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Witten is like the Welker for Dallas. Gates was the prototype for Gronk type TEs. Who would take Witten over Gates at their peaks? Anyone? Teams used to gameplay for Gates. I don't think anyone does for Witten.

To be fair early in Gates career teams used to gameplan for LT.

[BillJasper]

I wonder how people can forget that Gates played a number of years with Tomlinson in the backfield and Davis has Gore. Players that make/made defenses respect play-action.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Pretty much. If you told me that Gates and Witten had virtually identical stat lines, I'd say you were full of crap. I'm amazed to see how similar they are. I'd imagine very few casual football fans outside of Dallas even know who Witten is.

Eh, as an Eagles fan I damn well know who he is. As an opposing player, he's a giant PITA.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

Meh. I'll just respectfully disagree. Davis is a 49er and as such I have the inability to be objective.

Corrected.

[Sun Tzu]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Corrected.

Well duh.

[Suburban Rhythm]

So I'm sure I'm missing something obvious here, but...

If the stupid rule is a challenge flag thrown causes the standard score/turnover review to become invalid, when a call that seems likely to be overturned against you (in yesterday's case, Houston), why not throw the challenge flag yourself?

Loss: 15 penalty enforced on the KO
Gain: 7 points

I haven't followed the whole thing closely enough, but did Detroit lose a timeout and/or coaches challenge for later in the game? If no, then you'd be trading 15 yards on a KO for a TD. I make that trade every time.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

I wonder how people can forget that Gates played a number of years with Tomlinson in the backfield and Davis has Gore. Players that make/made defenses respect play-action.

They also seem to forget that for years, San Diego had worse than zero talent at wide receiver. Teams could focus on Gates because they definitely didn't need to worry about their wide receivers. All of those years that Gates led the team in receptions, Tomlinson was #2 in receptions. I don't think a defense ever wondered just how they were going to cover Keenen McCardell or Eric Parker.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by Suburban Rhythm

So I'm sure I'm missing something obvious here, but...

If the stupid rule is a challenge flag thrown causes the standard score/turnover review to become invalid, when a call that seems likely to be overturned against you (in yesterday's case, Houston), why not throw the challenge flag yourself?

Loss: 15 penalty enforced on the KO
Gain: 7 points

I haven't followed the whole thing closely enough, but did Detroit lose a timeout and/or coaches challenge for later in the game? If no, then you'd be trading 15 yards on a KO for a TD. I make that trade every time.

Interesting...I'd take that trade every time, too.

There has to be something in the rule book about that, though, right? I mean otherwise coaches would be tossing that flag out after every questionable TD they score, right?

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Suburban Rhythm

So I'm sure I'm missing something obvious here, but...

If the stupid rule is a challenge flag thrown causes the standard score/turnover review to become invalid, when a call that seems likely to be overturned against you (in yesterday's case, Houston), why not throw the challenge flag yourself?

Loss: 15 penalty enforced on the KO
Gain: 7 points

I haven't followed the whole thing closely enough, but did Detroit lose a timeout and/or coaches challenge for later in the game? If no, then you'd be trading 15 yards on a KO for a TD. I make that trade every time.

Dutch brought that up a couple of pages back.

I think the rule prevents the team who threw the flag from benefiting from the review, at least that is how the commentators described it. If that is the case it wouldn't work.

If the rule is written more poorly than it was conceived, then it could work.

I'd like to see someone try. Schwartz has gotten jobbed a time or two this year, and he certainly doesn't have enough class for a conscience to get in the way.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Don't you have to have a specific reason to challenge? There's no impetus for the scoring team to challenge the ruling. In the other team's case, there's at least something that they're trying to review.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Dutch brought that up a couple of pages back.

I think the rule prevents the team who threw the flag from benefiting from the review, at least that is how the commentators described it. If that is the case it wouldn't work.

If the rule is written more poorly than it was conceived, then it could work.

I'd like to see someone try. Schwartz has gotten jobbed a time or two this year, and he certainly doesn't have enough class for a conscience to get in the way.

How is benefit defined? It's typically considered to the benefit of the offensive team if a pass that was called incomplete on the field is overturned to be ruled a catch. So how about a play that was ruled incomplete but should have been a fumble recovered by the defense? Could the coach on offense throw a flag there if there to block an automatic review because there would have to benefit from the review in the form of a completed pass before the part of the ruling that would benefit the other team would occur?

How about if a team is up 1 with under 2 minutes to play and the other team has no timeouts with 1:30 to go and it's 3rd and 10 at the opponents 12 yard line. The offense competes a pass and the receiver goes down at the one yard line, but the officials incorrectly rule the play a touchdown. If the coach of the team on defense throws the challenge flag can the officials not overturn the call because it would be considered beneficial for the other team not score a touchdown, or can they review the call because the offense would benefit by not scoring a touchdown and being able the kneel the ball three times to win?

[mckerney]

Looking at the rule though, I'm not sure just how it applies in this situation

cannot initiate a review of any ruling against a team that commits a foul that delays the next snap.

They can't snap the ball on the extra point until the replay booth okays the play, so how did the penalty on Schwartz delay the snap?

[Sun Tzu]

Originally Posted by sabotai

They also seem to forget that for years, San Diego had worse than zero talent at wide receiver. Teams could focus on Gates because they definitely didn't need to worry about their wide receivers. All of those years that Gates led the team in receptions, Tomlinson was #2 in receptions. I don't think a defense ever wondered just how they were going to cover Keenen McCardell or Eric Parker.

Likewise with Davis. Teams didn't have to worry about covering Cedrick Wilson or Arnaz Battle. Gore was almost always the #2 receiver.

:shudder:

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Suburban Rhythm

So I'm sure I'm missing something obvious here, but...

If the stupid rule is a challenge flag thrown causes the standard score/turnover review to become invalid, when a call that seems likely to be overturned against you (in yesterday's case, Houston), why not throw the challenge flag yourself?

Loss: 15 penalty enforced on the KO
Gain: 7 points

I haven't followed the whole thing closely enough, but did Detroit lose a timeout and/or coaches challenge for later in the game? If no, then you'd be trading 15 yards on a KO for a TD. I make that trade every time.

I read somewhere that the rule is applied so that the penalized team can not benefit from the review.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I read somewhere that the rule is applied so that the penalized team can not benefit from the review.

So, had the Texans tossed the red flag right away would the officials have reviewed the play, made the right call and reversed the TD, give them a 15 yard penalty, and taken a TO away?

Or would they have immediately flagged them and told them that the play is no longer eligible to be reviewed and given them a 15 yard penalty?

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka

So, had the Texans tossed the red flag right away would the officials have reviewed the play, made the right call and reversed the TD, give them a 15 yard penalty, and taken a TO away?

Or would they have immediately flagged them and told them that the play is no longer eligible to be reviewed and given them a 15 yard penalty?

Just toss a flag if you think the review will go against you. They'll have to change this rule.

[Julio Riddols]

They should revise the rule so that it is a 15 yard penalty on the next play against the challenging team if the challenging team benefits from the review. If the challenging team is the team that scored, then they should be penalized 15 yards from the previous spot and replay the down. Any change of possession would be negated.

They should review the play in any case.

[Bobble]

This was I was getting at a page or so ago. How is this not just a simple delay of game? 5 yards, 10 second run-off if late in the game. How is this such a terrible foul that we don't want to get the play right? Sure, penalize Schwartz for the foul but get the play right and THEN penalize him.