Werewolf CLX - Atlantic City - GAME OVER

[Autumn]

The city is torn today, sure there are bad people infesting it but with little evidence to find them with. The discussion is long and the decision a close one, but the group decides that InBlue is the most likely of you all to be involved with the mob. She's surprised to be interrupted at dinner and carted away in a police car. But with the Police Department under pressure to make arrests, she finds herself quickly processed and waiting for charges to be filed.

The problem is nobody can agree on what they are. What is she supposed to have done again? A search of her apartment and an extensive background check turns up nothing but an extensive collection of Internet memes. Hopefully she gets a good lawyer.

InBlue was a Resident of Atlantic City.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

If brit hasn't been scanned, he should be tonight.

Feel free.

[murrayyyyy]

someone has to scan brit tonight, correct? Assuming it didn't happen last night.

[fontisian]

Blue! Come on. It can't end like this. You and me, all the things we've done. Axons! Remember the Axons? And the Daleks. We're the only two left. There's no one else... REGENERATE!

[britrock88]

Agh, bummer that Blue was a villager. Wolves are probably lurking in the voting shadows.

[Chief Rum]

Grrr... I'm more than a little annoyed at the late run on Inblue.

Yes, I know I ended up on her, but I think everyone can acknowledge I switched to gaurd against a tie.

Now we have to waste a scan on britrock to do what we didn't have the cajones to do today?

[mauchow]

Damn. I was gonna make bank with Brit. ONly put one bet in... grrr..

[Coffee Warlord]

I still say if the only reason you want brit dead is he didn't bring up the ladyfriends, it's a weak reason.

[JAG]

Sorry Blue.

A scan of brit or DT will give us a lot of vote info.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I still say if the only reason you want brit dead is he didn't bring up the ladyfriends, it's a weak reason.

It was a better reason than anything on Inblue.

[mauchow]

I put in a bid this time unlike last night. Let's hope I land it. Wasn't one of the big ones.

[Autumn]

DAY THREE WINNING BIDS

Mick "Stones" McGee - $380
Donna Black Investigations - $1,000
Cookie's Ladies - $350
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $0
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $0
Friends4Life Dating Service - $1,000

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $500
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler, hitman - $1,100
"Stumpy" Jones, thug - $111
Trayvon Michaels, crooked cop - $2

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Damn. I was gonna make bank with Brit. ONly put one bet in... grrr..

Reminds me to put in more than one person tonight for my bet, I've been going all in on one every night.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Reminds me to put in more than one person tonight for my bet, I've been going all in on one every night.

Me too for each bet so far.. I will mix it up tonight though.

[Coffee Warlord]

Jesus. WTF does Friends for Life do that someone spent 1000 on him.

[JAG]

No one likes sending messages I guess.

[mauchow]

I did it last time twice, I think

[The Jackal]

Kind of upset with myself for switching there

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Jesus. WTF does Friends for Life do that someone spent 1000 on him.

I was wondering about that too, my theory is that you aren't around to be scanned if you buy it.

[The Jackal]

This doesn't necessarily mean that brit is bad, but if we don't get any juicy info tomorrow brit and DT will certainly be on the chopping block

[InBlue]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Blue! Come on. It can't end like this. You and me, all the things we've done. Axons! Remember the Axons? And the Daleks. We're the only two left. There's no one else... REGENERATE!

This is for you. (Sorry it took a few minutes to figure out how to make.)
- 60

And as for the rest of you: You should be ashamed of yourselves.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ha! Nice.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by InBlue

And as for the rest of you: You should be ashamed of yourselves.

This should go in the died early thread.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

I was wondering about that too, my theory is that you aren't around to be scanned if you buy it.

I thought it might be a PM for a day and night thing.

[Zinto]

It is probably a PM thing, it was in the last game.

[JAG]

Jackal, did you have any ill effects from using the black market service?

[Autumn]

I think that I have processed all bids and prizes and glorious things like this. Please let me know if I have missed something.

You have until 9 am EST to send in your bets for tomorrow's lynch. Who will it be?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by JAG

Jackal, did you have any ill effects from using the black market service?

Other than losing my money, not that I'm aware of

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Other than losing my money, not that I'm aware of

Actually, there was a hint in my N1 interaction that leads me to believe I might have trouble securing further black market services, or attempting to do so might be a bad idea, but wouldn't know until I won a bid

[Narcizo]

Ho-hum. Told you should vote DT Looks like the wolves are getting their act together as well, judging by the services bid on. Boo!

[Narcizo]

Day One

#103 11:13 mauchow votes fontisian (1)
#104 00:40 path12 votes Zinto (1)
#105 07:58 narcizo votes britrock (1)
#114 09:40 Jackal votes Coffee (1)
#133 13:57 Coffee votes DaddyTorgo (1)
#134 14:25 JAG votes Coffee (2)
#136 15:45 Bullet votes JAG (1)
#138 16:01 fontisian votes Bullet (1)
#140 16:11 Darth Vilus votes JAG (2)
#142 16:51 Path unvotes Zinto (0), votes Bullet (2)
#144 16:53 InBlue votes JAG (3)

#145 16:56 Chief votes Bullet (3)
#146 17:18 Brit votes DT (2)
#152 19:07 Zinto votes DT (3)
#155 19:49 DT votes Coffee (3)
#163 20:16 Danny votes Coffee (4)
#178 20:32 murra5y votes JAG (4)
#184 20:40 InBlue unvotes JAG (3), Votes DT (4)
#191 20:46 JAG unvotes Coffee (3), votes Bullet (4)
#193 20:52 DT unvotes Coffee (2), votes Bullet (5)

1 Fontisian -------- mauchow (103)
1 Britrock88 ------- narcizo (105)
2 Coffee Warlord - The Jackal (114), danny (163)
4 DaddyTorgo ----- Coffee Warlord (133), britrock88 (146), zinto (153), Inblue (184)
3 JAG -------------- bulletsponge (136), Darth Vilus (140), murrayyy (178)
5 bulletsponge ---- fontisian (138), path12 (142), chief rum (145), JAG (191), daddytorgo (193)

[Narcizo]

Day Two

#247 13:19 mauchow votes murra5y (1)
#253 14:10 murra5y votes mau (1)
#261 14:56 Narcizo votes mau (2)
#262 15:04 JAG votes Darth Vilus (1)
#264 15:10 mauchow unvotes murra5y (0), votes DV (2)
#269 15:25 JAG unvotes DV (1), votes murra5y (1)
#274 15:53 Coffee votes Danny (1)
#275 15:54 path votes mau (3)
#298 18:45 DV votes mau (4)
#301 18:52 murra5y unvotes mau (3), votes path (1)
#302 18:53 fontisian votes DV (2)

JAG reveal

#304 19:02 JAG unvotes murra5y (0), votes britrock (1)
#306 19:11 fontisian unvotes DV (1), votes britrock (2)
#309 19:24 Coffee unvotes Danny (0), votes DV (2)

Jackal reveal

#311 19:25 Jackal votes fontisian (1)
#314 19:30 Coffee unvotes DV (1), votes fontisian (2)
#316 19:34 Zinto votes fontisian (3)
#317 19:34 murra5y unvotes Path (0), votes fontisian (4)
#320 19:40 mau unvotes DV (0), votes fontisian (5)
#324 19:44 Chief votes fontisian (6)
#331 20:03 InBlue votes Britrock (3)
#333 20:05 Danny votes Britrock (4)
#343 20:56 DT votes Britrock (5)

3 Mauchow ------- narcizo (261), path12 (275), darth vilus (298)
5 britrock88 ------ JAG (304), fontisian (306), InBlue (331), danny (333), daddy torgo (343)
6 fontisian -------- The Jackal (311), coffee warlord (314), zinto (316), murrayyyyy (317), mauchow (320), chief rum (324)

[Narcizo]

#401 09:18 Narcizo votes InBlue (1)
#423 10:00 Jackal votes murra5y (1)
#436 10:36 murra5y votes Zinto (1)
#437 10:42 JAG votes DT (1)
#451 12:35 path votes murra5y (2)
#452 12:45 Chief votes Brit (1)
#457 13:20 Coffee votes DV (1)
#461 14:00 mauchow votres Brit (2)
#469 14:13 path unvotes murra5y (1), votes DT (2)
#477 15:22 Narcizo unvotes InBlue (0), vote DT (3)
#482 16:13 Brit votes DT (4)

#483 17:02 InBlue votes Brit (3)
#485 17:21 Coffee unvotes DV, votes Brit (4)
#486 17:38 Jackal unvotes murra5y (0)
#490 18:45 Danny votes Brit (5)
#499 20:19 Jackal votes Brit (6)
#501 20:22 DT votes Brit (7)

#502 20:28 JAG unvotes DT (3), votes InBlue (1)
#511 20:46 murra5y unvotes Zinto (0), votes InBlue (2)
#513 20:47 Brit unvotes DT (2), votes InBlue (3)
#516 20:52 Coffee unvotes Brit (6), votes InBlue (4)
#522 20:54 Zinto votes InBlue (5)
#526 20:55 Jackal unvotes Brit (5), votes InBlue (6)
#537 20:59 Chief Rum unvotes Brit (4), votes InBlue (7)

2 DaddyTorgo -- path12 (469), Narcizo (477)
4 Britrock88 ----- mauchow (461), InBlue (483), danny (490), daddy torgo (501)
7 InBlue - JAG (502), murrayyyy (511), britrock88 (513), coffee warlord (516), Zinto (522), the jackal (526), chief rum (537)

[Narcizo]

So we have a run on DT, a run on Brit and finally a run on InBlue, in three distinct phases. I honestly don't think I've ever seen anything similar before. Luckily JAG and Jackal seem to have been the main instigators in the switch to InBlue and they have as much trust as is possible at this stage. It would definitely be good to know where Brit or DT stand at the moment.

[Narcizo]

As far as I can see the bodyguard-buyer didn't reveal yesterday, while Zinto claimed to have grabbed the seer. I really think the bodyguard-buyer needs to come out and reveal tonight/tomorrow. If they don't then we have the case of
a) a wolf got the bodyguard in order to ensure they made their kill, in which case why no kill? Presumably it would be that the night kill was targeted at another wolf. Or the other team got the kill and tried to hit a wolf who stuck the bodyguard on themselves. Whichever way this means that there's a wolf on wolf nightkill attempt and there's lots of information to be gained from that fact.
b) a wolf got the bodyguard in order to ensure that there was a good excuse for there being no kill. They also got the night kill. That's a lot of money to spend on excuses and just is so out there that it's not worth considering.

So IF NO ONE claims the bodyguard today I'm going to presume that there was a nightkill attempt on a wolf last night and base my reasoning on that fact.

[Narcizo]

With regards to Zinto I'm kind of interested in where he got the extra money from. Did you win on Bullet Zinto? While Chief's reveal of his scan of Jag gives him some degree of trust from me Zinto's scanning Jackal is so useless that, if anything, it makes me more suspicious of him. I wouldn't be surprised if Zinto is a wolf, scanned someone else and then says he scanned Jackal so questions won't be asked about who got the scan.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

The other large change is that when it comes time to bid on services, tomorrow, you can only bid on one service a day.

OK - I think it's extremely likely that there are, at most, 5 wolves left in the game. If no village claim the black market services tomorrow then we know that there are 4 or more wolves left in the game - and symmetry suggests a 10:3:3 split at start.

If the black market services were solely bought by wolves then there can only be one wolf among the other services. Thus a full reveal of all services bought should help us a lot in creating a circle of trust. Of course a villager could well have bought a black market service but I suggest that it is vital that they admit to that and come forward so we have as much information as possible to work with.

In fact I think we should try to get a list of all the services bought and claimed and that people should chip in to cover all the holes.

[Narcizo]

Day 1 Service Costs

Mick "Stones" McGee - $0
Donna Black Investigations - $1000 - Claimed by Chief Rum, scanned JAG
Cookie's Ladies - $277 - Claimed by JAG, used on Brit
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $0
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $27 - Claimed by ?


BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $402 - ?
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler - $350 - Claimed by Jackal used on fontisian

DAY TWO WINNING BIDS

Mick "Stones" McGee - $800 - Claimed by ?
Donna Black Investigations - $1100 Claimed by Zinto, scanned Jackal
Cookie's Ladies - $0
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $0
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $0
Eternity Investments - $0
Freddie von Maur, Casino Manager - $160 Claimed by ?


BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $0
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler - $1000 Claimed by ?
"Smiling Jane" Smith - $0
Jameson Gundy, DA - $0

DAY THREE WINNING BIDS

Mick "Stones" McGee - $380
Donna Black Investigations - $1,000
Cookie's Ladies - $350
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $0
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $0
Friends4Life Dating Service - $1,000

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $500
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler, hitman - $1,100
"Stumpy" Jones, thug - $111
Trayvon Michaels, crooked cop - $2

[Narcizo]

I realise that it probably isn't optimal doing all this before the end of the night but unfortunately I'm off to Internet-free land about an hour after deadline so I'm not going to be able to get all this out tomorrow. And I think it helps the village as much as the wolves to have this gathered to base their night actions on.

[Narcizo]

At the moment I'm leaning thusly

As much trust as you're likely to get in this game:
Jackal
JAG

Trust based on the way the bidding has gone:
Chief Rum
Danny

If we hypothesize the current tally to be 8:2:3 then that give me a more than 50% chance of hitting a baddy with a vote, even if we remove Danny from my trust group. Given the way recent games have gone this means that we're screwed.

[Narcizo]

Lets see if we can draw conclusions from the votes that I might not have looked at yesterday.

Day One.

fonti introduces a new candidate (bullet) with the vote at 2(Coffee):1:1:1:1:1 one of which is a vote on her. At the least, I find it hard to believe that she does that if Coffee is on her team. I could be wrong though - maybe it's better to have as many candidates as possible out there if two people on your team are on the radar at that point. I guess it gives you more flexibility and dilutes the wolf-pool so we probably can't read too much into that after all.

I don't think mau's vote on her tells us much about him either. He provides no reasoning for his vote at the time only offering a retroactive explanation that he had a bet on her being lynched. All in all I kind of think the pros and cons cancel out to leave mau's vote nuetral.

DV and murra5y both vote JAG. Now Danny and I might never vote JAG on day one but unfortunately everyone doesn't think the same way as us. Villagers can make bad moves after all.

Let's hypothesize that Coffee is bad. Coffee was in the lead until 20:30. That paints a bad picture of murra5y, JAG and DT. I'll give a pass to JAG and DT also being on the block muddies the waters somewhat but yeah murra5y can be expecting a fair bit of heat should it come out that Coffee is a baddy. Could DT and Coffee be on the same team? They both vote each other, with DT switching to Bullet with the last vote of the day. I don't think DT is the kind to vote a team-mate in the situation he did so I don't see them being teammates. The vote would also look good for Danny not being on the same team as Coffee.

OK then what if DT is bad. Again it looks poor for murra5y and JAG, but not quite as bad I don't think. Looks better for Brit and Zinto not being on DT's team. I don't want to go too hard on murra5y for his vote though whatever the allegiances of those involved.

[JAG]

I missed that the crooked cop was purchased last night. I am fairly sure he can make someone good scan as bad and possibly vice versa, so the person with the seer should consider that when deciding on whether or not to scan one of the most likely to be scanned targets. I won't be disappointed if they go for someone less obvious.

[Narcizo]

Day Two

I don't think that fontisian votes a team-member (DV) in that position unless she suspects that she might be compromised (ie she got a message that someone sent the hitman against her). Don't think Darth is on fontisian's team, but it's a possibility. I do like the theory that the wolves sit on their vote until they know what's happened with the night kill. Say hello DT, Danny, Chief and Zinto. Then again the wolves don't really have to worry too much about what they reveal with their votes when there's 12 viable votes on non-teammates.

Don't think Britrock is cleared from being on fonti's team but I have a feeling that he is as fonti was already preparing to go after JAG "if Brit flipped town". I think she believed Brit was with the other mob and had been blocked.

I have a hard time think Danny or DT drop their votes on Britrock if they are on fonti's side. I would expect them to bury her at that stage. There's the possibility that they were on the other side, possibly along with Britrock and wanted to get a sneaky wolf-wolf vote in. Overall it pushes me to thinking they're village though.

[Narcizo]

Day Three

Coffee pings me. His intial analysis is that he thinks that DV or DT are the most dodgy but he doesn't vote DT but ties Brit with him. Then he hops to InBlue. Don't like anyone suggesting who should be scanned either - always tingles my wolfy-sense.

If DT is bad then things look poor for Danny and Coffee. Then again there's the Coffee-DT thing from day one so I don't know about that one. If Britrock is bad then Zinto or murra5y bear looking at.

[Narcizo]

Yes I gradually lost interest as I went through the days.

[mauchow]

I claimed Wire Transfer Day 1.

[Narcizo]

DAY ONE WINNING BIDS
Mick "Stones" McGee - $0
Donna Black Investigations - $1000 - Claimed by Chief Rum, scanned JAG
Cookie's Ladies - $277 - Claimed by JAG, used on Brit
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $0
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $27 - Claimed by mauchow

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $402 - ?
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler - $350 - Claimed by Jackal used on fontisian


DAY TWO WINNING BIDS
Mick "Stones" McGee - $800 - Claimed by ?
Donna Black Investigations - $1100 Claimed by Zinto, scanned Jackal
Cookie's Ladies - $0
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $0
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $0
Eternity Investments - $0
Freddie von Maur, Casino Manager - $160 Claimed by ?

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $0
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler - $1000 Claimed by ?
"Smiling Jane" Smith - $0
Jameson Gundy, DA - $0


DAY THREE WINNING BIDS
Mick "Stones" McGee - $380
Donna Black Investigations - $1,000
Cookie's Ladies - $350
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $0
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $0
Friends4Life Dating Service - $1,000

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $500
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler, hitman - $1,100
"Stumpy" Jones, thug - $111
Trayvon Michaels, crooked cop - $2

[Autumn]

Seven minutes 'til dawn. Catching up and will be processing as quickly as I can, while dealing with the kids.

[JAG]

Just in case this is the end for me, I was the one who purchased the BG D2 for 800. I self-protected. So probably a safe bet the mob won the NK and either found another mobster but didn't want to reveal it or attacked me. I had extra money because I won my bet D1.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day Three

Coffee pings me. His intial analysis is that he thinks that DV or DT are the most dodgy but he doesn't vote DT but ties Brit with him. Then he hops to InBlue. Don't like anyone suggesting who should be scanned either - always tingles my wolfy-sense.

I'd like to point out I originally WAS voting on DV yesterday. By late afternoon, I was still the only person to have a vote on him, and the only candidates with multiple votes were InBlue and Brit. I figured at that point it'd be better to force a tie and see if anything happened.