2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[wustin]

eh you guys know the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) which includes AOC won most of their elections and referendums right?

Bernie may not be the right person to represent the group but there will 100% be momentum for the party in the future.

[PilotMan]

I imagine that with better branding and a better spokesperson that you are very correct. Bernie cannot be the voice of the future. AOC is much better positioned to be pragmatic enough to know when to take a win, and smart enough to know when to press her advantage. If they can find others cut from her cloth then there's a lot of possibility to make that progress.

[Drake]

The whole election was an elaborate setup so Jim Carrey could do the "Luh-hoo-zer" gag on SNL.

That's my narrative and I'm sticking with it.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I feel like the "most votes ever" talking point for ANYONE is pretty stupid. It's like the 90s/00s Yankees having the most games played/AB/IP in post-season history, when up until 1969, there was just a WS. You don't think Ruth, Mantle, Ford, etc., wouldn't still own all those records if they played as many playoff games back in the day? US population just 30 years ago was like 85M less than it is now.

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

FWIW, this post inspired my nerdy side, so I normalized the total popular vote from previous elections according to 2020 eligible voter population. Here were the 10 most impressive performances...

1964 Lyndon Johnson - 90,437,576
1936 Franklin Roosevelt 82,816,659
1952 Dwight Eisenhower 81,582,667
1956 Dwight Eisenhower 81,444,946
1972 Richard Nixon 80,162,107
1940 Franklin Roosevelt 77,126,621
2020 Joe Biden 75,010,459
1984 Ronald Reagan 74,877,544
1960 John F. Kennedy 74,652,363
2008 Barack Obama 72,310,005

This shows exactly why politicians should leave the data analyzing to their data analysts.
But in Trump's case, although I'm seriously doubtful about his IQ being as high as he claims it to be, I do think he's smart enough to realize that the grand majority of the electorate have no clue either what these numbers mean and making such statements is good for his popularity.

[Edward64]

The 2 GA Senate run-offs are on Jan 5.

No idea how well the Dems will do but will be voting for them. The Dems really need to go full court press here somehow including Bloomberg's millions (btw, has anyone heard from him?). Not sure if Biden & Harris should be campaigning here as an early-in-their-term loss would hurt their stature.

Rooting for that guy in AK also.

[Thomkal]

So there has not been a post on the Donald Trump Twitter feed in the last 14 hours...ah what a beautiful Sunday morning

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Drake

The whole election was an elaborate setup so Jim Carrey could do the "Luh-hoo-zer" gag on SNL.

That's my narrative and I'm sticking with it.

Still prefer Baldwin "macho man" over Carrey.

But honestly, when did networks allow smoking again? I think it was in bad taste by NBC and Chappelle doing that.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I imagine that with better branding and a better spokesperson that you are very correct. Bernie cannot be the voice of the future. AOC is much better positioned to be pragmatic enough to know when to take a win, and smart enough to know when to press her advantage. If they can find others cut from her cloth then there's a lot of possibility to make that progress.

I think AOC is going to be a good spokesperson, but they still need another leader with high charisma and some gravitas. Someone hard to dislike that can really catch fire.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by wustin

eh you guys know the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) which includes AOC won most of their elections and referendums right?

Bernie may not be the right person to represent the group but there will 100% be momentum for the party in the future.

I keep seeing that statement (about the DSA winning everything) but almost all of those elections and referendums were in very winnable places. No one's floating DSA candidates in Texas, for instance, but moving to the left of an incumbent Dem in NY or CA can work, sure.

I think we're eventually heading that way, too, if we don't blow it all up in the next decade or so. But we need some more boomers to shuffle off the mortal coil and be replaced by Gen Z voters.

SI

[Ksyrup]

Yeah, a couple of well-placed QAnon people won too, and while that is worrying, it's less so if you're talking about Presidential candidates as opposed to House seats in batshit crazy southern districts.

[GrantDawg]

If you think that Pennsylvania and Nevada was slow counting: Alaska won't even begin counting their absentee ballots until November 10th.

[Ksyrup]

Nailed it.

Trump is that old boyfriend that doesn’t want to accept the fact that you’re no longer in a relationship and eventually requires a restraining order.

— Brittany Pounders (@LibertyBritt) November 8, 2020

[Ben E Lou]

LOL. Romney just said Trump "has a relatively relaxed relationship with the truth."

[GrantDawg]

I can't stand stories like this. One earlier said Jared advised him to concede, and now Melania. Don't buy it.

Melania Trump has joined the growing chorus of President Donald Trump’s inner circle advising him the time has come for him to accept the loss, a source familiar with the conversations tells CNN’s @KateBennett_DC

— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) November 8, 2020

[Ksyrup]

Assuming anyone is trying to convince him to give it up, I think the most effective tack is to appeal to his greed. Tell him that the brand will be better protected by not fighting this. I'm not sure that's true, but...

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I can't stand stories like this. One earlier said Jared advised him to concede, and now Melania. Don't buy it.

Melania Trump has joined the growing chorus of President Donald Trump’s inner circle advising him the time has come for him to accept the loss, a source familiar with the conversations tells CNN’s @KateBennett_DC

— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) November 8, 2020

Especially since this morning, there was also a story saying Jared was encouraging him to fight.

[albionmoonlight]

We’ll never know, but considering how the votes shook out, I think Biden might be the only candidate who would have won.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

We’ll never know, but considering how the votes shook out, I think Biden might be the only candidate who would have won.

I really think so. There's no other candidate that can rebuild that blue wall while also picking up enough African American support to deliver Georgia and (probably not) North Carolina.

Considering how much he lost with different Hispanic demographics, I'd be curious if there was a major candidate who could have built a new coalition with some of them to instead take Florida and Texas. I just didn't see that candidate.

SI

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Especially since this morning, there was also a story saying Jared was encouraging him to fight.

Though it will make for a brutal 73 last days of this jackasses reign I am have changed my mind and hope he does not concede and in fact has to be escorted out on January 20th. That will destroy both his legacy and likely hamper him trying to successful run again.

[Atocep]

The longer he drags it out before eventually conceding the worse it hurts him with everyone except his base and I do think the eventuality of giving up the fight will hurt him a little bit there as well.

[GrantDawg]

My wonder is would Biden have won without the virus? It was razor close as it was. It is hard to say. Considering the bad polling, I don't think we know where this race was at any time.

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

My wonder is would Biden have won without the virus? It was razor close as it was. It is hard to say. Considering the bad polling, I don't think we know where this race was at any time.

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I think Trump coasts to victory without the virus.

[GrantDawg]

The only thing that would have been radically different would have been the democratic ground game. Would regular door to door canvassing mean more Democrats registered? The Republicans kept their ground game going and had big increase in registering. Could Dems maybe topped that?

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[Radii]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think Trump coasts to victory without the virus.

+1

[Brian Swartz]

I'm still on the other side of that. We'll never know, but how many of Trump's voters - particularly the extra ones he didn't get in 2016 - vote for him if he took a different path on the virus? Assuming that he'd still get enough of them I think underestimates the number of non-liberals who were opposed to coronavirus-related restrictions, and how strong that opposition is and was. I think it can be just as plausibly argued that a lot of those people would just have not voted if they didn't see a significant Biden-Trump distinction on that issue.

Now if you're saying the virus doesn't happen at all ... yes I think Trump wins then. The unpleasant question there becomes do we then consider the virus a net positive?

[Lathum]

I would call the election a silver lining of the virus.

The reality is an incumbent is almost always judged on the strength of the economy.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think Trump coasts to victory without the virus.

+whatever number we're on

I don't know about coast - but it would look similar to the 2016 map. Maybe Trump picks up some combo of Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire but those were the only purple-ish states he didn't win in 2016. I mean, the rest are pretty much locked in unless you think CO/NM are going red.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The only thing that would have been radically different would have been the democratic ground game. Would regular door to door canvassing mean more Democrats registered? The Republicans kept their ground game going and had big increase in registering. Could Dems maybe topped that?

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I think we'll see that story some more. We heard a couple of states (like Florida) where there was a lot of talk about how the Dems didn't do their traditional ground game because of COVID and the GOP was able to take advantage of that vacuum.

SI

[Ksyrup]

Trump would have coasted to victory by just pushing for many of the same actions that were taken on the state level. I don't think he lost because the pandemic happened, but his response (or lack thereof). Even if we started trending more cases at this time of the year, had he just acknowledged it and taken reasonable steps to show he had a plan/strategy to contain it, he would have won.

[Ksyrup]

What an absolute piece of garbage human being.

Televangelist Kenneth Copeland laughs at the media for declaring that Joe Biden has won the election and will become president. pic.twitter.com/ARHqmsEbo7

— Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) November 8, 2020

[GrantDawg]

I was thinking totally without the virus happening, but I also completely agree that if had handled it like any other president would have handled it, then he would have won. He got a rally bump when it started, and it would have gone up further if he had shown strong leadership. Of course he just isn't a string leader. He can only divide and play victim.

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[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

+whatever number we're on

I don't know about coast - but it would look similar to the 2016 map. Maybe Trump picks up some combo of Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire but those were the only purple-ish states he didn't win in 2016. I mean, the rest are pretty much locked in unless you think CO/NM are going red.

SI

Without Trump’s stupidly callous handling of the virus, there wouldn’t have been much of a message for Biden to challenge Trump on.

[GrantDawg]

But to be fair wouldn't Biden's campaign been quite different? More than likely they would have changed messaging a great deal. How? What do you think their selling line would have been?

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[Ksyrup]

The other wild card was George Floyd, of course. Racial justice, President for all not just supporters, corruption, divisiveness, etc. - there were still plenty of things to challenge him on, but I don't think as much of it sticks like the pandemic when 2 weeks betore the election he was still peddling "we're turning the corner, it's going away" as we were hitting daily high cases in a lot of states. Six months ago you could try to play that kind of talk off as "optimism" or his "trying not to panic everyone" crap, but it played as downright delusional/dishonest during the past month - punctuated by a couple of WH outbreaks too.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

What an absolute piece of garbage human being.

Perfect example to use to end their tax exempt status. It's such a put on. How do you look at that and feel like that is a valid and worthwhile way to spend your time and money?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

What an absolute piece of garbage human being.

I think I've told my story here before of meeting Kenneth Copeland. It was back in high school, and we were on a boy scout camping trip north of Fort Worth by Eagle Mountain Lake. It was a council event, and there were about a dozen other troops camping as well.

One of the guys had just gotten his license, and had driven there. On Saturday night, we snuck out to drive to the lake and go fishing. On the way back, Jeff was hauling ass on the back roads, as new drivers often do. And as often happens, he lost control on a curve at high speed. We slide off the road, take out a bunch of fence, and embed the front of the car in a telephone pole.

Luckily none of us were hurt. We get out of the car, and quickly figure out we weren't driving anymore. I see some lights coming across the field from the other side of the fence. Soon a man arrives and starts chewing us out and cussing up a storm. It dawns on me that this is Kenneth Copeland. His diatribe lasted a good 5 minutes, and ended once the sheriff's office showed up. Then the TV Kenneth Copeland came back.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

But to be fair wouldn't Biden's campaign been quite different? More than likely they would have changed messaging a great deal. How? What do you think their selling line would have been?

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Probably but I don’t think most Americans cared save for the COVID thing. Stock market was up, immigration was dead, and regulations being rolled back for big business. He had no platform which affected all Americans.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The other wild card was George Floyd, of course. Racial justice, President for all not just supporters, corruption, divisiveness, etc. - there were still plenty of things to challenge him on, but I don't think as much of it sticks like the pandemic when 2 weeks betore the election he was still peddling "we're turning the corner, it's going away" as we were hitting daily high cases in a lot of states. Six months ago you could try to play that kind of talk off as "optimism" or his "trying not to panic everyone" crap, but it played as downright delusional/dishonest during the past month - punctuated by a couple of WH outbreaks too.

Nah George Floyd just reinforced Republican mindset that minorities were ungrateful, unruly and dangerous.

Trump easily would’ve said Biden was coddling criminals, end of the game.

[Lathum]

Bidens message would have been vote for me because I am not a huge POS. Turns out people don't care how big a POS the POTUS is until he totally mismanages a plague and undoes all the gain made in the economy.

[larrymcg421]

I mean, what people are arguing is that if there was no COVID and Trump had a drama free final year of his Presidency, would he have won? I'm not sure that answer is really meaningful because it exists in a world where Trump is a completely different person. If there wasn't COVID, then there would've been something else.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I was thinking totally without the virus happening, but I also completely agree that if had handled it like any other president would have handled it, then he would have won. He got a rally bump when it started, and it would have gone up further if he had shown strong leadership. Of course he just isn't a string leader. He can only divide and play victim.

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Most of the rest of the world had the rally around the flag thing going on. Not here - not in Trump's toolbox

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The other wild card was George Floyd, of course. Racial justice, President for all not just supporters, corruption, divisiveness, etc. - there were still plenty of things to challenge him on, but I don't think as much of it sticks like the pandemic when 2 weeks betore the election he was still peddling "we're turning the corner, it's going away" as we were hitting daily high cases in a lot of states. Six months ago you could try to play that kind of talk off as "optimism" or his "trying not to panic everyone" crap, but it played as downright delusional/dishonest during the past month - punctuated by a couple of WH outbreaks too.

I think him getting it and having to go to the hospital punctured some of his air of invincibility, too.

Originally Posted by Lathum

Bidens message would have been vote for me because I am not a huge POS. Turns out people don't care how big a POS the POTUS is until he totally mismanages a plague and undoes all the gain made in the economy.

Hell, it may have even just been the last part. Especially if it was the "right people" dying.



SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I mean, what people are arguing is that if there was no COVID and Trump had a drama free final year of his Presidency, would he have won? I'm not sure that answer is really meaningful because it exists in a world where Trump is a completely different person. If there wasn't COVID, then there would've been something else.

Nothing in his first three years had the magnitude to totally upend things in the same way that COVID did. His stupid tax cuts and the Fed's fiscal policy artificially inflated the economy so that a recession probably wasn't going to start until 2021 or 2022. I'd argue the George Floyd protests don't happen if there's no pandemic. He could have stupidly gone to war, I suppose - but he didn't seem to want to do that. So I can't see that thing that would have really demonstrated him being able to fumble away a response that so drastically altered people's day to day lives that it would have cost him the election.

SI

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Nothing in his first three years had the magnitude to totally upend things in the same way that COVID did. His stupid tax cuts and the Fed's fiscal policy artificially inflated the economy so that a recession probably wasn't going to start until 2021 or 2022. I'd argue the George Floyd protests don't happen if there's no pandemic. He could have stupidly gone to war, I suppose - but he didn't seem to want to do that. So I can't see that thing that would have really demonstrated him being able to fumble away a response that so drastically altered people's day to day lives that it would have cost him the election.

SI

How do you explain the 2018 midterms then? Economy was humming and there was no pandemic.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

How do you explain the 2018 midterms then? Economy was humming and there was no pandemic.

I was skeptical at the time, but I do think it's clear Trump being on the ballot makes a huge difference for the GOP.

I'm not sold on Trump 100% winning without COVID though. Economy strength usually is the fundamental factor for incumbents, but Trump also didn't run the country like a normal President so I don't think it's fair to judge him by normal standards. It's definitely an interesting debate, but excitement surrounding getting Trump out of office started well before COVID.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

How do you explain the 2018 midterms then? Economy was humming and there was no pandemic.

Also, polling remained consistent before and after March. I get that the polls were off again by about 3% but I'm assuming consistent methodology over teh year.

Trumpians were never going to turn on Trump. I'm not convinced Covid made much of a difference at all in Democratic enthusiasm.

[GrantDawg]

I think Trump drives turnout. He especially drives turn out of the unknown number of Trump voters who will never answer a poll. They are the unlikely voter.
The question was never to convince the standard Trump voter to change his vote. It is the independent and even the Dem voter they went Trump 2016. That and new voters are were the movement was.

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[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

LOL. Romney just said Trump "has a relatively relaxed relationship with the truth."

i don't wanna hear a thing from that asshole

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Bidens message would have been vote for me because I am not a huge POS. Turns out people don't care how big a POS the POTUS is until he totally mismanages a plague and undoes all the gain made in the economy.

that was hillary's ENTIRE message really. Every ad....every time....except for the one that was so generic I fell asleep watching it

yeah the plague and lying about the plague and stealing money and equipment to sell during the plague...but even then his cultists were okay with him

[CrimsonFox]

So when does the episode air where the reps start shooting each other. That will be a fun one

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Trumpians were never going to turn on Trump. I'm not convinced Covid made much of a difference at all in Democratic enthusiasm.

I mentioned it once but it might be worth mentioning again. As of this moment, Trump got almost 8M more votes in '20 than he did in '16, with everything nationally in worse shape. Trump cult doesn't explain that, pandemic problems for Trump don't explain that - though some of them might have voted for him because of his pandemic response. Even if you falsely assume that no Trump voter in '16 didn't vote for him again, there's still a problem here.