Front Office Football Central  

Go Back   Front Office Football Central > Main Forums > Off Topic
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read Statistics

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 06-20-2016, 05:19 AM   #1
miami_fan
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Land O Lakes FL
The Official NBA 2016 Offseason Thread

All right draft experts. The draft is Thursday and I have done zero draft prep. So educate me on the next Draymond Green (2nd rounder to become a top 5, 10, 15 player in the league). I want this on record so that if you are wrong, I can bring this back up to castigate you for knowing absolutely nothing about the game of basketball.

With that, who should go #1? Who do you want your team to pick?

Discuss
__________________
"The blind soldier fought for me in this war. The least I can do now is fight for him. I have eyes. He hasn’t. I have a voice on the radio, he hasn’t. I was born a white man. And until a colored man is a full citizen, like me, I haven’t the leisure to enjoy the freedom that colored man risked his life to maintain for me. I don’t own what I have until he owns an equal share of it. Until somebody beats me and blinds me, I am in his debt."- Orson Welles August 11, 1946

miami_fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 06:46 AM   #2
Groundhog
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sydney, Australia
According to the gambling odds, Simmons a lock to go #1. Paying $1.22 right now at the odds I just got, compared to $3.60 for 'anybody else'.
__________________
Politics, n. Strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles.
--Ambrose Bierce
Groundhog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 09:18 AM   #3
Eaglesfan27
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: New Jersey
I'll be very happy to see Simmons become a 76er. I think his shooting can develop with time and he has everything else I'd like to see in a superstar.
__________________
Retired GM of the eNFL 2007 Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles (19-0 record.)
GM of the WOOF 2006 Doggie Bowl Champion Atlantic City Gamblers.
GM of the IHOF 2019 and 2022 IHOF Bowl Champion Asheville Axemen.
Eaglesfan27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 12:27 PM   #4
murrayyyyy
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
2nd rounder that could make an impact... Joel Bolomboy? It all depends on the situation with him. Pretty good on the boards and think he was defensive POY twice. Shoots mid 30's from deep but that can be worked on.

Grizzlies for the 12th year in a row need a guard so I'll throw a dart and pick Malik Beasley from Florida State.
murrayyyyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 12:45 PM   #5
Scoobz0202
Pro Rookie
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dayton, Ohio
Always been a Joe Posnanski fan. Really enjoyed his latest piece.

LeBron James, Cavs finally end Cleveland’s heatbreak | NBC SportsWorld
Scoobz0202 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 12:51 PM   #6
jbergey22
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
I am wondering who will take the gamble early on Skal Labissiere and likely be disappointed.

I think Jakob Poeltl will be a nice pick around #10.

As far as 2nd round picks that should have decent NBA careers. Gary Payton II and Zach Auguste.

As far the the Twolves at #5. I suppose Id like to see them take Dunn(I like how he always competes and his versatility) although trading the pick I would be fine with. I dont really like the draft that much. Seems like the gap between #3 pick and the #20 isnt all that great.

Most likely to bust Skal Labissiere and Cheick Diallo. For all the hype on them 2 coming in they looked overmatched at the high college level.

Last edited by jbergey22 : 06-20-2016 at 01:05 PM.
jbergey22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 01:06 PM   #7
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
I think Simmons, Ingram, and Bender are all relatively equal at the top. There's so much biometric/medical information we're not able to see; one thing I'd be particularly interested in is if much of Ingram's lack of athleticism/fluidity compared to Kevin Durant or Paul George (which seems to be his main knock other than just being super skinny, which of course is a temporary weakness) is due to Ingram still growing into his body (Durant was already 6'9-6'10 by his junior year of high school; his awkward phase, if it ever existed, definitely took place before he was on ESPN). We've seen people think Giannis was not an elite level athlete heading into his draft; Ingram isn't quite at that level, but I could see something roughly similar happening when we're talking about 18-year-old kids who are still in the awkward, gangly phase. If that's the case I'd take him #1, no questions asked. If the organization has some magical shooting coach who's guaranteed to make Ben Simmons a decent three-point shooter in the NBA (or if shooting the ball 100,000 times in the gym is all it takes), I'd rather see the same amount of improvement be applied to make Ingram a 6'10 Steph Curry

Simmons to me has always been fine, just not someone who's a surefire future All-Star or head and shoulders above his competition. He would've had high potential to not necessarily be a bust, but in a situation where he'd have been sharing playmaking duties with a non-shooting point guard both players would've ended up looking worse and that would've been toxic from the start.

At least Philadelphia is in the position to put the ball in his hands from day 1, which is why I said they'd be one of the better Simmons destinations out all the lottery teams (although they're probably not out of the woods given the horrible Noel/Jeff Teague trade rumors). For all the talk about 'The Process' now being over, that will entail a lot of mistakes and some disappointment as he learns what passes he can and can't make in the NBA, especially as teams will be aggressively sagging off of him, which took college coaches half the season to figure out). And speaking of the process, it looks like Okafor and/or Noel will be traded this summer, who could have guessed?

One trade that would make me fine with the Sixers choosing Simmons would be along the lines of Okafor and the 24th pick going to the Raptors for Terrence Ross and no. 9. That 9th pick would then hopefully be used on Wade Baldwin. Patrick Beverly is often discussed as the kind of player you put at point guard when you have someone else to do the ball handling/playmaking, and Baldwin can be a luxury version of that. He's not quite as quick but bigger (and therefore should be able to not only guard PGs but hold his own when switched onto other players, which is obviously huge in today's NBA) and a better spot-up shooter. I believe the main things holding him back in terms of where he's projected are being a relatively unheralded recruit (he played alongside Karl-Anthony Towns in high school, which brings to mind Mike Conley, Jr. only being a top-20 recruit due to playing with Oden and then getting drafted 4th and having a very good career. Plus Baldwin is pretty young for a sophomore.) and being tasked in college with creating offense for a bunch of non-shooters, which is not his forte. If my team were looking to take Kris Dunn, I'd hope they instead would consider trading back a few spots and getting Baldwin (similar to last year when I'd gladly have picked up future picks to end up with Myles Turner instead of Porzingis).

Other than that, the best things to do with the number one pick would be to find the team(s) that thinks Simmons is really a superstar in waiting and make a trade with them. I mentioned Okafor + 1 for Russell + 2 (both teams average out getting the 2nd pick the last 2 years, and if you think Simmons > Ingram is a bigger difference than Russell > Okafor that's tough to turn down). I'd even trade down to 3 if the Celtics send a future Brooklyn pick or two, and you never know what else would be out there for offers.

A lot of people are high on Domantas Sabonis as a lottery pick based on his college stats and how he dominated other projected lotto picks like Chriss and Poeltl in head-to-head matchups. I'd use that example to point to the last time Dragan Bender played in a competitive setting against players who were not grown men. In 2014, playing as a 16-year-old on Croatia's U18 team in the European championships, Bender put up 32 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, and 0 turnovers in 29 minutes against Sabonis' Lithuania squad (2 points on 1-8 shooting by Sabonis). At that point, I thought Bender was as skilled, smart, and agile as any tall guy that age can be, but he also looked anemically skinny and was someone whose three-point form made it seem like your opinion of him would vary widely based on whether he had his shot falling that particular game (quick aside: I can find footage of that entire game and plenty of Maccabi Tel Aviv's games from this year on YouTube more easily than I can find NCAA games, so the 'international man of mystery' aspect seems pretty overblown to me). He's certainly made strides in both of those areas in the two years since then, and like Ingram, can certainly still be effective even if he 'only' adds 15-20 pounds (just look at before/after pictures of KG, KD, DeAndre Jordan, or pretty much any other player who came into the league at 18. These guys can and will put on muscle. Even for someone like Anthony Randolph, a lack of physical strength was very far down the list of reasons he did not live up to the potential he flashed early in his NBA career).

If Bender had been "Danny Zeller," the fourth Zeller brother who just finished his freshman season at Indiana as the youngest player in the country, he'd certainly be discussed more as the number one pick. Conservatively he'd have averaged 12 and 8 with 3-4 assists ("point center" and "best outlet passer since Kevin Love" would be phrases you'd see used quite often), and 1-2 blocks/steals. He'd have hit threes, switched onto guards, and protected the rim. He'd get into foul trouble some games by virtue of getting backed down by stronger upperclassmen and dealing with overzealous NCAA refs, but if he did all that for a team that played deep into the NCAA tournament I'd have a difficult time seeing him not squarely in the number one pick discussion. If he falls to Minnesota at 5, the rest of the league will be asking "how did we just hand all this to the Timberwolves?" in a couple years.

Last edited by nol : 06-20-2016 at 03:07 PM.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 01:22 PM   #8
jbergey22
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
Quote:
Originally Posted by nol View Post

If Bender had been "Danny Zeller," the fourth Zeller brother who just finished his freshman season at Indiana as the youngest player in the country, he'd certainly be discussed more as the number one pick. Conservatively he'd have averaged 12 and 8 with 3-4 assists ("point center" and "best outlet passer since Kevin Love" would be phrases you'd see used quite often), and 1-2 blocks/steals. He'd have hit threes, switched onto guards, and protected the rim. He'd get into foul trouble some games by virtue of getting backed down by stronger upperclassmen and overzealous NCAA refs, but if he did all that for a team that played deep into the NCAA tournament I'd have a difficult time seeing him not squarely in the number one pick discussion. If he falls to Minnesota at 5, the rest of the league will be asking "how did we just hand all this to the Timberwolves?" in a couple years.


Kind of plays like one of the Zellers. From watching a few of the videos. I like his ball skills and touch around the rim. Doesnt seem like a real explosive jumper is a drawback. Timberwolves could use a stretch 4 like him to keep the lane open for the athletes to attack the rim.
jbergey22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 01:31 PM   #9
jbergey22
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
Sounds like the Bulls want Wiggins and the #5 for Butler. Timberwolves have apparently countered with Lavine, Deng and the #5. Trading Lavine is such a scary thought. He has so much potential and athleticism.

Last edited by jbergey22 : 06-20-2016 at 01:33 PM.
jbergey22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 01:38 PM   #10
murrayyyyy
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbergey22 View Post
I am wondering who will take the gamble early on Skal Labissiere and likely be disappointed.

I think Jakob Poeltl will be a nice pick around #10.

I'm not sure there is a situation 8-13 I'd want either of them to be. Think Poeltl's game doesn't translate to the NBA.
murrayyyyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 01:40 PM   #11
stevew
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
Seems like #5 and Dieng and Lavine would be a nice trade for the Bulls if they've soured on Butler.
stevew is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 01:47 PM   #12
jbergey22
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
Quote:
Originally Posted by murrayyyyy View Post
I'm not sure there is a situation 8-13 I'd want either of them to be. Think Poeltl's game doesn't translate to the NBA.

Like many 7 footers he has to develop better post up skills at the next level but he certainly has the athleticism and work ethic to develop. Might not have the most upside of the 7 footers in the draft but Id feel pretty safe with this pick.

Last edited by jbergey22 : 06-20-2016 at 01:47 PM.
jbergey22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 01:52 PM   #13
jbergey22
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevew View Post
Seems like #5 and Dieng and Lavine would be a nice trade for the Bulls if they've soured on Butler.

I dont think the Bulls have soured on Butler. Thibs just has a serious man crush on Butler. LaVine has so many similarities to Westbrook that it makes it scary to trade that piece.
jbergey22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 02:35 PM   #14
wustin
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Simmons has been nothing but a headcase during the finals. From not wanting to work out for the Sixers to McGrady calling him out for being disrespectful to Bill Russell.

Last edited by wustin : 06-20-2016 at 02:35 PM.
wustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 02:39 PM   #15
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbergey22 View Post
Kind of plays like one of the Zellers. From watching a few of the videos. I like his ball skills and touch around the rim. Doesnt seem like a real explosive jumper is a drawback. Timberwolves could use a stretch 4 like him to keep the lane open for the athletes to attack the rim.

No, he just looks like he could be one of the Zellers, which is why I said that

The shooting, quickness and ball-handling are in an entirely different league (especially when you consider the international three-pointer's longer). Bender's passing and ball-handling for a player with his size and length is about as much an anomaly as Simmons'. I'd certainly consider Cody Zeller a better finisher, but that would be quickly mitigated by Bender's ability to find players on the move similar to what Draymond Green does out of the pick-and-roll.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 02:43 PM   #16
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by wustin View Post
Simmons has been nothing but a headcase during the finals. From not wanting to work out for the Sixers to McGrady calling him out for being disrespectful to Bill Russell.

Wait, stop the presses! I thought firing Sam Hinkie and bringing in the venerable Jerry/Bryan Colangelo duo meant that every agent would want to send players to work out for the Sixers and sign there as free agents. Also, Boston evidently has a terrible organizational culture because Kris Dunn is not working out for them or sending any medical information.

Or maybe, in every single sport, all agents would rather their players be drafted in New York or Los Angeles even if it means going a couple spots later and would rather their players be drafted where there aren't already young players who play the same position (particularly if, say, you also happen to represent one of those young players).

Honestly I'm fine with Simmons not working out there given that the Sixers were dumb enough to pretty much publicly guarantee he'd be the number one pick the moment they got it. What's the incentive? Joel Embiid got hurt working out for teams when he was pretty much 100% going to be the first pick. Speaking of Embiid, the fact that the Sixers are now so public about their desire to trade both Noel and Okafor must mean they're reasonably optimistic about Embiid being healthy going forward. Otherwise the move could only be interpreted as "treating the players like assets" and/or "running a Ponzi scheme by looking to trade the only two NBA players on the roster."

Last edited by nol : 06-20-2016 at 03:38 PM.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 06:33 PM   #17
wustin
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Yeah he has Lebron's agent so probably pushing hard for him to go to the Lakers. Honestly I'd like to see him go there. If Luke Walton is planning on adopting Kerr's smallball Simmons would be great.
wustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 08:25 PM   #18
Atocep
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
Quote:
Originally Posted by wustin View Post
Simmons has been nothing but a headcase during the finals. From not wanting to work out for the Sixers to McGrady calling him out for being disrespectful to Bill Russell.

Lebron was an arrogant, chest thumping kid with a crazy mom and no jumper.

Simmons has no reason to work out for Philly. I don't think it's a slight against the Sixers or anything indicative of Simmons' attitude. He has the leverage and knows the Sixers are 95% going to draft him first overall.

McGrady shouldn't be calling anyone out. He would have easily been one of the top 10 players to ever play if he had any work ethic whatsoever.
Atocep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 08:36 PM   #19
wustin
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by Atocep View Post
Lebron was an arrogant, chest thumping kid with a crazy mom and no jumper.

Simmons has no reason to work out for Philly. I don't think it's a slight against the Sixers or anything indicative of Simmons' attitude. He has the leverage and knows the Sixers are 95% going to draft him first overall.

McGrady shouldn't be calling anyone out. He would have easily been one of the top 10 players to ever play if he had any work ethic whatsoever.

I should've linked this.

Tracy McGrady (Probably) Calls out Potential No.1 NBA Draft Pick Ben Simmons - YouTube

I don't care how talented you are. If you walk into a suite with Bill Russell you should be humble and pay your respects.
wustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 08:47 PM   #20
Atocep
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
Quote:
Originally Posted by wustin View Post
I should've linked this.

Tracy McGrady (Probably) Calls out Potential No.1 NBA Draft Pick Ben Simmons - YouTube

I don't care how talented you are. If you walk into a suite with Bill Russell you should be humble and pay your respects.

I guess I don't see the big deal. It's not like he went into the suite and made an ass of himself.

He tweeted afterward about what an honor it was to meet Bill Russell.
Atocep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 10:33 PM   #21
JonInMiddleGA
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
Simmons = major bust that will be out of the NBA within 4 years tops.

Million dollar body, ten cent head.
Wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis
JonInMiddleGA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 11:11 PM   #22
Young Drachma
Dark Cloud
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Not exactly prone to hyperbole about busts, but...Simmons strikes me as a guy who if he ends up on the wrong team is screwed. LeBron was playing HS games on national tv and winning state and national titles.

Simmons washed up on our shores and has consistently made questionable decisions and failed all of the basic tests including "I'm not going to risk getting injured by playing in the NIT so my team will just forgo the entire thing so I don't look bad." and now it's "let's just skip every workout so I can go to LA so I can get a bigger shoe deal."

He might end up being worth all of the hype. But the NBA has churned out and spit out better prospects than him in the past. And our only real comparison for "unknown overhyped Australian" is Exum and he hasn't exactly been a breakout star.

Simmons at LSU showed a lot of potential. Maybe he'll mature. But he's the kind of guy who would do better to fall in the draft to get humbled, but he won't. Should be interesting to see what happens.
Young Drachma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 11:17 PM   #23
RainMaker
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
I think Buddy Hield is going to be great. Feels like a Dwyane Wade type player. Not the best athlete but really smart and plays his ass off.
RainMaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 12:16 AM   #24
Groundhog
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sydney, Australia
Biased Aussie here, but...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Young Drachma View Post
Simmons washed up on our shores and has consistently made questionable decisions and failed all of the basic tests including "I'm not going to risk getting injured by playing in the NIT so my team will just forgo the entire thing so I don't look bad." and now it's "let's just skip every workout so I can go to LA so I can get a bigger shoe deal."

I doubt very much these are his decisions, to be honest. He's doing what he's being told to do, and I can't say I really blame him either. If I were the top prospect in a draft, I also can't say I'd be too keen on going to the train wreck in Philly. I'll admit to being biased as far as my opinions with the Sixers go, too.

Quote:
He might end up being worth all of the hype. But the NBA has churned out and spit out better prospects than him in the past. And our only real comparison for "unknown overhyped Australian" is Exum and he hasn't exactly been a breakout star.

He's definitely not a 'can't miss' prospect (I don't think anyone in this draft is). Difference with Exum though is that at least we've seen Simmons compete against quality division 1 talent. Exum was intentionally hidden, which did a lot to build up his hype. The performances he did have at a junior international level were outstanding, but also not against upper tier division 1 NCAA-type players in most cases.

Exum could still come good, but I was a lot less confident of him pre-draft day than I am of Simmons.
__________________
Politics, n. Strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles.
--Ambrose Bierce
Groundhog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 01:04 AM   #25
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Young Drachma View Post
Not exactly prone to hyperbole about busts, but...Simmons strikes me as a guy who if he ends up on the wrong team is screwed. LeBron was playing HS games on national tv and winning state and national titles.

Well, Simmons was too, but he played for a basketball factory high school that recruits from all over the world and sends pretty the much entire roster to high-major Division I schools each year. LeBron was able to lead his team of guys from Akron past those types of schools. He was certainly a good jump shooter then. If anything, he was too talented to the point that his shot selection didn't matter and he just challenged himself to take and make cool-looking step-backs and fadeways, which gave him some bad habits as a result.

As it turns out, LeBron was 38% from three his senior year of high school on 2.4 makes a game; Simmons was 29% on 0.5 makes a game. As I've said before, if you consider guys like LeBron, John Wall, and Derrick Rose (two guys who averaged one made three per game in college) to have had 'no jumper' coming into the league, you may need to use a different term for Simmons. If he shot jumpers his rookie year as effectively as LeBron did this regular season, I'd honestly commend him for how much work he put in on it.

Last edited by nol : 06-21-2016 at 02:15 AM.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 05:37 AM   #26
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Marquese Chriss scares the hell out of me. By the time conference play rolled around, I was thinking he'd declare for the draft, a bunch of college basketball fans would consider it to be a huge mistake, and he'd still be a worthwhile gamble as a lottery pick in this draft class. Now he's being discussed at 3 or 4. Without going too in-depth about his specific strengths and weaknesses because there seem to be a lot of recent breakdowns on him specifically due to his boom-bust nature (basically I like him a lot on offense but on defense saying that he fouls too much is akin to saying Ben Simmons doesn't have a solid jump shot), I wouldn't mind the Pelicans rolling the dice and putting him next to Davis, but if I were any other team in the 3-8 range that's looking for a power forward I'd just as soon trade down to the range of a Deyonta Davis or Skal Labissiere. Then if it's 2019 and Chriss is still kinda mediocre by that point, I'd be willing to make a trade like what Detroit was going to do for Montiejunas. If it's 2019 and Chriss is looking like a future or current star, that would just be an award-winning job of coaching/player development by the team that drafted him and I could live with being wrong. His teammate DeJounte Murray is kind of all over the place on draft boards; I like him later in the first round (like if the Sixers keep both of their picks there), but the idea of two lottery picks coming from an NIT team in what was a down season for top-end college basketball talent (while the international talent pool continues to expand) just doesn't sit too well with me.

Skal is a good example of being willing to adjust your expectations with new information. If you still think of him like he's supposed to be next in the line of Kentucky bigs, he's probably always going to suck to you (just like if you think of Harrison Barnes as the #1 overall high school recruit or the first freshman ever named a preseason All-American. That was literally a quarter of his life ago!), but if you just want to be patient and try developing him into a version of Channing Frye who maybe doesn't shoot quite that well but is a better shot-blocker, that sounds good enough for a team to take a chance on just outside the top 10 in this draft. Around midseason I had been thinking that he'd be a great fit in Portland before realizing the Blazers had traded that pick for half a season of Arron Afflalo.

I have been pretty low on Henry Ellenson to the point of wanting to stay away from him in the lottery or even the mid-first round, but he at least seems like the kind of player who could theoretically look a lot different if he really gets serious about being in shape. When Draymond Green came into the draft I thought of him as a lottery-level talent (compared him favorably to Royce White from a talent standpoint, and of course White was a pretty big gamble based on his personal/anxiety issues) and assumed he'd be one of those guys who'd fall to a good team at the end of the first round and would then be some Boris Diaw type of glue guy for them (and I don't think I could ever be accused of being biased towards college upperclassmen). I expected him to be the kind of three-point shooter he was last year, not this year, but probably the main factor behind Green exceeding my expectations so much and proving me wrong is him getting in top shape and improving his athleticism. Obviously Ellenson has a totally different skillset, but I could see that being the difference between him being a lottery bust and a guy who can carve out a 10 year career. If your team's got a shot blocker already and thinks he's going to put in the work on his conditioning then sure, take him in the late lottery before Skal.

In the battle of players striving to be like J.J. Redick in Jamal Murray vs. Buddy Hield, they're close enough that it probably depends on the team. Hield's got the better shot of at least being decent on defense whereas murray will probably always be below average. If Bender's gone and Minnesota took Hield at 5 I wouldn't be outraged even though that seems higher than some mock drafts have him. Don't feel like Murray is likely to be much more of a distributor than Redick is right now (which is to say he can make some good reads off of curls or attacking close-outs but you wouldn't really want him at point guard for any extended period of time), but he's much better than Buddy at running around screens and shooting. That's a definite plus if you don't think Buddy is going to be using his ball-handling to be creating threes for himself a la Steph Curry or even C.J. McCollum.

I would just have a hard time getting too excited about drafting either of them in the 3-8 range. If neither will be a versatile defender (similar to J.J. Redick who plays good defense and can hold his own when matched up against a player like Harden, but expecting him to switch a screen and handle a 6'8 wing in the post can be a minor emergency) or reliably create offense for himself, it's hard to see the pick being a home run between the guys who get off threes at the highest volume being either in the Curry/Lillard/McCollum mold or in an offensive environment that these lottery teams just don't have. I want to like Buddy even more but I think of Frank Kaminsky in Charlotte last year: the Hornets already had Cody Zeller, who was in the same class as Frank the Tank and obviously played well enough in the Big Ten to leave for the draft a couple years before him. Same thing for Hield (who the Kings apparently love) and Ben McLemore. Even though I'm sure Buddy is a great guy and a super hard worker, I'd rather try to buy low on the more veteran guys than expect the college heroes to come in and succeed where a similar (and likely more talented) player has recently failed to make a huge impact.


Jaylen Brown is pretty interesting to me: in high school he was considered a more polished shooter/creator than guys like Stanley Johnson and Justise Winslow, but smaller than Johnson and not quite as good a defender as Winslow. Fast forward to now and Brown didn't shoot that well, but on not too many attempts to really be sure he's always going to be a bad shooter. Plus the offense he was in and his teammates weren't giving him too much help on the spacing front. He seems like a pretty smart, inquisitive kid who would respond well to good coaching, so if a team has that and wants to try to mold him as a type of stretch 4, he's worth a gamble in the mid lotto (and even if the Suns took him at 4 with Bender off the board it certainly wouldn't be the worst personnel move of theirs over the past year).

Outside of those guys I'd just as soon take a chance on an international player this year, particularly from the team Mega Leks (recent players of theirs include Boban and the Nuggets' Nikola Jokic, who probably had an even better season than Porzingis last year). Mega Leks is basically the kentucky of european basketball: They bring in young prospects and let them develop and play through rather than try holding them back in hopes that NBA scouts don't see the talent. I think Ante Zizic would be a good, no-frills center who will likely be drafted after the more 'name brand' Poeltl. Pat McCaw, DeAndre Bembry, Malik Beasley, and Chinanu Onuaku could be decent role players who i'd be fine with taking starting around 15-20 or so. Kay Felder could be a scorer off the bench like J.J. Barea. Gary Payton II does enough other stuff well that I'd take a second-round flier on him in the event he can become a passable shooter. Once you get towards the last 5 picks or so, I'm always a big proponent of taking former top high school recruits/projected one-and-done type of players (as long as there's not some glaring character concerns) rather than some international guy who will probably never decide to come over even if he does have some talent. James Michael McAdoo, who went undrafted in 2014 but has made the Warriors roster and appeared in some games for them the last few years without looking horrible, is one such example. This year, Alex Poythress from Kentucky and Wayne Selden from Kansas would fit that bill.

Malachi Richardson has a whole laundry list of bust characteristics. One-and-done but is even older for his class than Simmons (aka not as much upside as you think), Syracuse player so he's going to be a step behind when it comes to learning to play defense, his stock rose as the result of a couple good NCAA tournament games when nobody thought too highly of him during the season, and not a good finisher despite appearing athletic based on his wingspan and vertical leap. I don't know if I could come up with 60 players from this draft I'd rather have, but I could get close.

Last edited by nol : 06-21-2016 at 06:49 PM.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 12:40 PM   #27
wustin
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Redick is 6'4 with a wingspan smaller than his height. Buddy is 6'5 with a 6'9 wingspan. His athleticism has been overshadowed by his shooting ability, I think he'll make a fine two-way SG.

Edit: Speaking of wingspans and going off topic, Steph Curry has a 6'3 wingspan. I wonder if Irving would've made that shot over Curry if his arms were 1-2 inches longer.

Last edited by wustin : 06-21-2016 at 12:44 PM.
wustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 01:02 PM   #28
wustin
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Golden State Warriors want to sign Dirk Nowitzki
wustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 01:04 PM   #29
murrayyyyy
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Quote:
Originally Posted by nol View Post
Malachi Richardson has a whole laundry list of bust characteristics. One-and-done but is even older for his class than Simmons (aka not as much upside as you think), Syracuse player so he's going to be a step behind when it comes to learning to play defense, his stock rose as the result of a couple good NCAA tournament games when nobody thought too highly of him during the season, and not a good finisher despite appearing athletic based on his wingspan and vertical leap. I don't know if I could come up with 60 players from this draft I'd rather have, but I could get close.

And supposedly the Grizzlies have told his agent he will be the pick @ 17. A 36% shooting guard, just what they need
murrayyyyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 01:40 PM   #30
murrayyyyy
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Quote:
Originally Posted by nol View Post
Wait, stop the presses! I thought firing Sam Hinkie and bringing in the venerable Jerry/Bryan Colangelo duo meant that every agent would want to send players to work out for the Sixers and sign there as free agents. Also, Boston evidently has a terrible organizational culture because Kris Dunn is not working out for them or sending any medical information.

Or maybe, in every single sport, all agents would rather their players be drafted in New York or Los Angeles even if it means going a couple spots later and would rather their players be drafted where there aren't already young players who play the same position (particularly if, say, you also happen to represent one of those young players).

Honestly I'm fine with Simmons not working out there given that the Sixers were dumb enough to pretty much publicly guarantee he'd be the number one pick the moment they got it. What's the incentive? Joel Embiid got hurt working out for teams when he was pretty much 100% going to be the first pick. Speaking of Embiid, the fact that the Sixers are now so public about their desire to trade both Noel and Okafor must mean they're reasonably optimistic about Embiid being healthy going forward. Otherwise the move could only be interpreted as "treating the players like assets" and/or "running a Ponzi scheme by looking to trade the only two NBA players on the roster."

Sixers work out Ben Simmons, quiet on report he's officially No. 1 pick

As you were saying?
murrayyyyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 02:05 PM   #31
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by wustin View Post
Redick is 6'4 with a wingspan smaller than his height. Buddy is 6'5 with a 6'9 wingspan. His athleticism has been overshadowed by his shooting ability, I think he'll make a fine two-way SG.

Edit: Speaking of wingspans and going off topic, Steph Curry has a 6'3 wingspan. I wonder if Irving would've made that shot over Curry if his arms were 1-2 inches longer.

That's where I'm at with Murray and Hield. I'm willing to accept the premise that both are better prospects than Redick was coming out of Duke (Hield based on size, athleticism, and making the leap that his senior season holds much more weight than his previous three; Murray based on better freshman year stats. Plus they both have a solid blueprint to follow and are entering a more three-point friendly league). Both seem like the kind of people who will work hard to improve, which is important because J.J. also had to improve a ton to get to where he was today. Guys like Jimmer and Adam Morrison were/are just as pure of shooters who had a harder time accepting that being a star was out of the question and that all the other areas of their game would need to get much better just to make it as role players.

But Redick is in an almost ideal offensive situation. Defenders can't cheat too much off a Blake Griffin or DeAndre Jordan screen because that's a lob (side note: the kind of spacing players like Jordan provide on offense is very underrated because of the people who watch 5 NBA games a year and say 'all that guy does is dunk.' Yeah, all he does is dunk and if you don't send a person or two into the lane every single time he sets a screen and rolls he would score 25-30 points a game on nothing but alley-oops.) and of course Chris Paul, between his passing ability and being a threat to score on his own, is a guy who creates many open shots for Redick. Even then, Redick gets a lot of baskets on these plays where he's sprinting back and forth around screens for 10+ seconds to get a decently open look, and I find myself wondering if it's even humanly possible to get 18 points per game doing that, especially on the lottery team that will end up drafting these players. Even if you were to drop the current version of J.J. Redick onto a team like the Kings, Suns, or Nuggets, he's not going to guarantee that those teams make the playoffs so taking more of a gamble would be understandable. Well, less so for the Kings since they've swapped all those future draft picks to Philadelphia, so they can just sort of do whatever makes them happy.

I see Oklahoma City as the other extreme here where based on their shooting guard rotation, it looks to me as though a team that already has a player or two who can create their own offense is better off parking a guy like Roberson in the corner and hoping he can make 33 percent or whatever on wide-open looks than going with a lights-out shooter like Morrow or Foye who may have some mismatches on defense (and I specifically compared Hield to a version of Morrow who's good enough at the other stuff to stay on the court, but he's not going to be an elite defender you'd slide over to give your point guard or small forward an easier matchup). Especially when probably the number one league trend following these playoffs will be playing defense while switching almost every screen.

Last edited by nol : 06-21-2016 at 04:37 PM.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 02:11 PM   #32
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by murrayyyyy View Post

As I was saying, Porzingis was pretty clearly a unique situation and no agent is turning down the opportunity for his player to be drafted first overall, no matter who's in charge (also, what's the over/under for how many days after the draft lottery it would have taken for the first shitty hot take of a "HAHA Ben Simmons won't work out for Hinkie!!" post? 2.5?). Even then, it took the Sixers, a team whose coach has personally known Ben Simmons' family since before Simmons was born, publicly promising Simmons the number one pick to get him to work out for them. Bravo.

Case in point: Report: Lakers would have targeted Brandon Ingram if they got the no. 1 pick

In other words, if the Sixers were ambiguous enough about who they liked, they probably could have traded down and got the best player in their opinion at no. 2.

Last edited by nol : 06-21-2016 at 08:40 PM.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 02:15 PM   #33
wustin
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Redick is incredibly conditioned. Been like that since he was at Duke. Had to play almost 40 minutes a game because bench was nonexistent. Gassed out during March. I hated watching that Duke team because all Redick did was run around for 20 seconds just to shoot a 3 pointer.
wustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 04:54 PM   #34
JPhillips
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
I doubt they can pull it off, but in essence trading Barnes for Durant would be a hell of a move from GS.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers
JPhillips is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 05:00 PM   #35
JeeberD
General Manager
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
I'm hearing rumors that GSW are going to make a play for Dwight Howard, for some reason...
__________________
UTEP Miners!!!

I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO
JeeberD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 05:57 PM   #36
wustin
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Dwight Howard with the warriors would not be fair whatsoever. It would be like his old Orlando team but on steroids.
wustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 06:11 PM   #37
Chief Rum
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
Quote:
Originally Posted by wustin View Post
Dwight Howard with the warriors would not be fair whatsoever. It would be like his old Orlando team but on steroids.

Except Dwight Howard is no longer that Dwight Howard.
__________________
.
.

I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.
Chief Rum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 06:15 PM   #38
wustin
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
Except Dwight Howard is no longer that Dwight Howard.

All he needs to do is block, rebound, and catch lobs. Should be easy enough.

Imagine the Curry/Draymond pick and roll with Dwight inside and shooters spot up on the wings/corners.
wustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 06:31 PM   #39
Mantle2600
High School Varsity
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Dawg Pound
Quote:
Originally Posted by wustin View Post
Dwight Howard with the warriors would not be fair whatsoever. It would be like his old Orlando team but on steroids.

And his old team was on steroids from the rumors I've heard
__________________
Member of the Underground

Browns. Cavs. Tribe. Buckeyes. Period.
Mantle2600 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 06:51 PM   #40
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by wustin View Post
All he needs to do is block, rebound, and catch lobs. Should be easy enough.

Imagine the Curry/Draymond pick and roll with Dwight inside and shooters spot up on the wings/corners.

That's what Andrew Bogut already does. He had a higher field goal percentage than Howard this year and can also pass much better (and the guys he passes to tend to be better at scoring the ball than Dwight or any other center in the modern NBA). If I were the Clippers or any other team I'd certainly like to see the Warriors jettison Bogut and pay Howard more. If there's one thing a 73-win team famous for playing small ball needs, it's a massive roster shakeup that at best could barely upgrade their center position.

Last edited by nol : 06-21-2016 at 07:10 PM.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 07:21 PM   #41
Groundhog
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sydney, Australia
Quote:
Originally Posted by wustin View Post
All he needs to do is block, rebound, and catch lobs. Should be easy enough.

Imagine the Curry/Draymond pick and roll with Dwight inside and shooters spot up on the wings/corners.

It sounds perfect, but Houston and the Lakers thought similar things. Problem with Howard (aside from his health and fading athleticism) is his attitude/personality. Nobody on this GSW roster would ever bitch or moan about touches while on pace to break a wins record.... Howard on the other hand would probably do exactly that.
__________________
Politics, n. Strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles.
--Ambrose Bierce
Groundhog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 07:27 PM   #42
Vince, Pt. II
Pro Starter
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere More Familiar
I want no part of Dwight Howard on the Warriors. None. That would be awful.
Vince, Pt. II is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 07:42 PM   #43
murrayyyyy
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Simply ask yourself who is better, the team that signs Howard or the Rockets for losing Howard? I think most people think the Rockets get better.

Last edited by murrayyyyy : 06-21-2016 at 07:42 PM.
murrayyyyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 08:14 PM   #44
wustin
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by murrayyyyy View Post
Simply ask yourself who is better, the team that signs Howard or the Rockets for losing Howard? I think most people think the Rockets get better.

I'd like to think Howard is better for leaving the Rockets since D'antoni is the head coach now. If there was a way to make the horrid defense worse it was that move.
wustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2016, 01:49 PM   #45
MrBug708
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
Not that it means much but LeBron's kids were enrolled into Los Angeles schools
MrBug708 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2016, 02:26 PM   #46
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
It's not like Dwight Howard sucks. Odds are he'll be better next year than this year. The Rockets still have to do a lot with the money that's available after Howard opted out because right now their 2nd- and 3rd-best players are Cint Capela and Trevor Ariza.

The Jazz just got George Hill in a trade that sent Jeff Teague to Indiana. Guessing that Atlanta is getting the Jazz's pick and maybe some bit player. Utah will be a threat to win 50 games if everyone's healthy. Hill, Hood, Hayward, Favors, and Gobert: probably the number one defensive team in the league. Utah won 4 fewer games than Portland this year despite having no point guard and missing more than 40 combined games from Gobert and Favors. In their two games against the Warriors with both Gobert and Favors in the lineup, the Jazz lost by 3 and in overtime by 7. If you put them in the 5 seed going into the playoffs with the injuries to the Clippers and then Steph Curry, they likely would have made the conference finals.

Atlanta frees up some cap space, more playing time for Schroder, and gets a decent pick. I'm guessing they like Timothe Luwawu as a potential 3-D guy in that range. Indiana probably makes out the worst but Teague has an extra year on his contract and is younger than Hill.

Last edited by nol : 06-22-2016 at 02:59 PM.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2016, 03:12 PM   #47
JonInMiddleGA
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
Quote:
Originally Posted by nol View Post


The Jazz just got George Hill in a trade that sent Jeff Teague to Indiana. Guessing that Atlanta is getting the Jazz's pick and maybe some bit player.

Atlanta frees up some cap space, more playing time for Schroder, and gets a decent pick. I'm guessing they like Timothe Luwawu as a potential 3-D guy in that range. Indiana probably makes out the worst but Teague has an extra year on his contract and is younger than Hill.

I can see them doing that -- or simply punting the draft yet again for a draft-and-stash guy -- but I'd really like to see them take the (Utah) 12 & maybe their 2nd rounders & even another part and at least try to move up for either Sabonis or Poeltl.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis
JonInMiddleGA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2016, 03:25 PM   #48
mckerney
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2000





Last edited by mckerney : 06-22-2016 at 03:27 PM.
mckerney is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2016, 03:28 PM   #49
nol
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Rose, Justin Holiday, and next year's 2nd rounder for Robin Lopez, Jerian Grant, and Jose Calderon. Just getting another team to take on Rose's salary was going to be tough enough for the Bulls, so I'm pretty surprised at what the Knicks gave up. New York is probably going to make a run for the 2010 championship with a max deal for Dwight Howard.

Actually, just paying him max money for two years so his contract's up at the same time as Carmelo's player option wouldn't be horrible. The best thing about this trade for the Knicks is that it means they definitely aren't going to screw around running the triangle any more. Porzingis secretly looked pretty shaky when Rambis was coaching the team.

Last edited by nol : 06-22-2016 at 03:46 PM.
nol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2016, 03:42 PM   #50
murrayyyyy
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
I don't think it's a bad trade for the Knicks. You give up a 10-7 guy in Lopez, Grant who couldn't hit a shot from anywhere and an old PG for taking a chance on Rose being healthy.

Rose-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-free agent center doesn't look that bad on paper.
murrayyyyy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:51 AM.



Powered by vBulletin Version 3.6.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.