Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!! - Page 22

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 04:27 PM

Good luck in the vote, ive gotta run, ill be out until late tonight if not tomorrow...test me, test CW, realisticly the odds are quite slim on any one person. But do what your gut tells you is right and we can all deal with the results in our own ways.

Barkeep49 · 04-20-2006, 04:29 PM

Ok here's what I'm wondering: I think we made a mistake yesterday but not doing a mass reveal. We were so close, and frankly the amount of people playing in this game is going to be nearly constant until the end, I feel, that having that information out there when we were likely 1 shitface away from winning was a mistake. OH well, a missed opportunity indeed.

Coffee Warlord · 04-20-2006, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I understand what you say the reasons are...im just still unsure about whether i buy them. That would make you basically the doctor from the spawn game(who did get turned). Im just saying, all your reasons considered i would never have made the move to clear 1 villager on day 2, therefore my suspicion.

This, however, is no ordinary game. The longer we screw around killing villagers, the more Things there are, and the harder it is to win. As I know with pretty good certainty RA is not a Thing (right NOW), I made my move and prevented a wasted day.

Or at least tried to. Being honest never works in WW.

hoopsguy · 04-20-2006, 04:38 PM

Barkeep, if you want to go that route then today would be more viable than tomorrow if we miss here. We can still get two of them in one day, but if we miss today and they convert tonight then we are playing at least until Day 5.

That said, if we are playing with two converts they will just say what their original roles were and have complete knowledge on how those roles work if they are in fact special roles.

The bodyguard role would be a helpful one, as we could rule out people being converted on a given night. Which would strongly imply that they weren't converted, since there would only have been one chance to do so. Also, they may have knowledge on how their ability works if they guard a Thing based on Q&A with the moderator. But I want that guy out there hidden as a deterrant against high-probability conversions, which we lose if he comes forward.

Risk/reward is high on both sides. I don't feel like we are in dire straights right now, but it could slip away from us quickly if we miss today.

Seeing as how we have not had one come forward yet, I am guessing there is not a witness role in this game.

WVUFAN · 04-20-2006, 04:43 PM

I'm not so sure anymore there's been any special roles truly revealed aside from Barkeep's so far. I re-iterate my vote for Coffee.

Barkeep49 · 04-20-2006, 04:44 PM

I don't think it makes sense at this point with 2 shitfaces out there. It was an idea that just came to me thoguh and I was lamenting our not doing it yesterday.

st.cronin · 04-20-2006, 04:45 PM

I see that apparently CW is now in the lead to be tested. I am more sure that he is NOT a Thing than that Blade IS a Thing.

I have played this game mostly close to the vest. I will continue to do so: I have my suspects and Blade is at the top of the list. CW is one of about three of you that I am sure is NOT a Thing. For today.

My vote stands. I hope the rest of you come to your senses about CW.

Swaggs · 04-20-2006, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, if you want to go that route then today would be more viable than tomorrow if we miss here. We can still get two of them in one day, but if we miss today and they convert tonight then we are playing at least until Day 5.

That said, if we are playing with two converts they will just say what their original roles were and have complete knowledge on how those roles work if they are in fact special roles.

The bodyguard role would be a helpful one, as we could rule out people being converted on a given night. Which would strongly imply that they weren't converted, since there would only have been one chance to do so. Also, they may have knowledge on how their ability works if they guard a Thing based on Q&A with the moderator. But I want that guy out there hidden as a deterrant against high-probability conversions, which we lose if he comes forward.

Risk/reward is high on both sides. I don't feel like we are in dire straights right now, but it could slip away from us quickly if we miss today.

Seeing as how we have not had one come forward yet, I am guessing there is not a witness role in this game.

What are you basing the two converts on? Are we assuming that Qwik and saldana were the original Things?

st.cronin · 04-20-2006, 04:46 PM

dola

I also have to admit I have played this game badly. I misread a couple of people early on. But I think I have the hang of it now.

path12 · 04-20-2006, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I see that apparently CW is now in the lead to be tested. I am more sure that he is NOT a Thing than that Blade IS a Thing.

Reasoning? I'd like to hear alternate points of view. We already know where the big four stand.

Barkeep49 · 04-20-2006, 04:50 PM

See I think close to the vest is absolute shit in this game. With information changing based on conversion almost every night I think to a certain extent having as much information out there as possible is beneficial.

st.cronin · 04-20-2006, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

Reasoning? I'd like to hear alternate points of view. We already know where the big four stand.

My reasoning has been out there. CW was not about to get tested (I think he had no votes on him at the time), so if he's a Thing, why bust out with a fake reveal at that particular time? It makes even less sense if both him and RA are Things, since RA was in the lead. 9 times out of 10, when somebody pulls a reveal, they draw votes. It would be a really, really bad play for a Thing.

Swaggs · 04-20-2006, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

See I think close to the vest is absolute shit in this game. With information changing based on conversion almost every night I think to a certain extent having as much information out there as possible is beneficial.

I agree with this.

I think we could use any information now to nail two Things in a row and wrap this game up in a hurry.

hoopsguy · 04-20-2006, 04:52 PM

Swaggs, yes I'm assuming that Qwik and Saldana were the original Things. Which I beleive I have covered in my "assumptions" posts, although they may be buried at this point. I can dig that up again if people are interested.

If Qwik was a Thing, he had to be an original. Only possible way that isn't the case is if Things converted him Night 1 prior to Barkeep getting to have his PK. It isn't impossbible, but Barkeep had 15 people to pick from and Things had 14 people (assuming two at start) to pick from, so for them to select the same guy seems peculiar. Especially since Barkeep was looking for someone who struck him as a Thing while the Things were looking for someone who could escape detection.

Saldana isn't as sure a Thing - it is possible he was converted on Night 1. But if I was a Thing then I wouldn't have touched him with a ten foot pole after that rant he went on towards Raiders about his un-subtle simple/brilliant reveal.

Ergo, they were the original Things.

Barkeep49 · 04-20-2006, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

My reasoning has been out there. CW was not about to get tested (I think he had no votes on him at the time), so if he's a Thing, why bust out with a fake reveal at that particular time? It makes even less sense if both him and RA are Things, since RA was in the lead. 9 times out of 10, when somebody pulls a reveal, they draw votes. It would be a really, really bad play for a Thing.

I happen to agree which is why I through out the less likely idea that CW was really trying to clear hoops.

Barkeep49 · 04-20-2006, 04:54 PM

DOLA -- WHich I don't really buy all things considered at this moment.

st.cronin · 04-20-2006, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I happen to agree which is why I through out the less likely idea that CW was really trying to clear hoops.

I'm not sure that makes any sense. The reveal is an end-game strategy, so either they were about to lose, or about to win. If they're about to win, we're probably fucked. But if they were about to lose, then RA is a Thing, and then again it makes no sense, except in a really crazy desperate way. In that scenario, there are better fake reveals or strategies available.

Also the reveal was very early in the voting cycle. Typical wolf fake reveals come LATE: That creates more confusion.

st.cronin · 04-20-2006, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I agree with this.

I think we could use any information now to nail two Things in a row and wrap this game up in a hurry.

I am not keeping any information close. What I am holding onto are THEORIES which I will bust out when the time comes. You see, I think I know who the two things are: Blade and another. Once we burn Blade, I will post my thoughts on the other one. Keeping it close to the vest allows him to expose himself even more.

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm not sure that makes any sense. The reveal is an end-game strategy, so either they were about to lose, or about to win. If they're about to win, we're probably fucked. But if they were about to lose, then RA is a Thing, and then again it makes no sense, except in a really crazy desperate way. In that scenario, there are better fake reveals or strategies available.

Also the reveal was very early in the voting cycle. Typical wolf fake reveals come LATE: That creates more confusion.

Got 5 minutes and wanted to address this.

The things are playing a numbers game..every night we dont test them they grow larger in number. Pulling this reveal has to some(you included) done exactly what it was intended to do. Buy a few days until their numbers are large enough and spread out enough we cant stop them. Tonight, whichever side they are on, they will convert someone on the utterly opposite side of the fence or a quiet person. Either way our job will be twice as difficult tomorrow. The reveal, if you test me, did everything it was intended to do. Save Raiders from being tested. The question you must ask yourselfs today, and prob. tomorrow if you tests me, is did he do it because he didnt want us to waste a day or he didnt want us to dust his only partner in crime

hoopsguy · 04-20-2006, 05:10 PM

There is no way we are about to lose with 2 (1 confirmed, 1 strongly assumed) kills on the books.

Reveal is an end-game strategy insofar as we can end the game with a Thing-Thing sequence today. But not for the Things at this point.

I agree on the early reveal versus late reveal. I can see a veteran player mixing up their play, but this is a weird game to try the fake reveal because what role can you come up with that will preclude testing? And mixing up play might mean early afternoon reveal, not 1 1/2 days before deadline.

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am not keeping any information close. What I am holding onto are THEORIES which I will bust out when the time comes. You see, I think I know who the two things are: Blade and another. Once we burn Blade, I will post my thoughts on the other one. Keeping it close to the vest allows him to expose himself even more.

Cronin, do you have a video camera? If so, set it up around the deadline(if i get tested), record your reaction, and then post it online...i need a good laugh. I cant wait to see you mull over how wrong your theory was

Swaggs · 04-20-2006, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am not keeping any information close. What I am holding onto are THEORIES which I will bust out when the time comes. You see, I think I know who the two things are: Blade and another. Once we burn Blade, I will post my thoughts on the other one. Keeping it close to the vest allows him to expose himself even more.

I'm fine with that. I just think it might be a good idea for someone like a witness to clear or finger someone, so that we do not waste a sequence of testing. Like, for example, if someone followed Blade or CW all last night and feel like we would be wasting a test on them, now might be a good time to turn the game on the Things and knock them off balance.

In my opinion, Barkeep was smart to play his role early. It is better to get to execute your action and make it useful, than to sit on it the whole game and not use it or, even worse, dying without using it.

Raiders Army · 04-20-2006, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Might be best to go ahead and post it again. Still not following you, but it's more of a "here is what I want everyone to think without the need to go back and fact check" sort of way.

And until you pony up and get checked I don't think the majority as a whole buys the fact that you are clean, thus the reason the one guy that has tried to clear you is the leading vote getter at this point.

God you're so fucking stupid.

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

There is no way we are about to lose with 2 (1 confirmed, 1 strongly assumed) kills on the books.

Reveal is an end-game strategy insofar as we can end the game with a Thing-Thing sequence today. But not for the Things at this point.

I agree on the early reveal versus late reveal. I can see a veteran player mixing up their play, but this is a weird game to try the fake reveal because what role can you come up with that will preclude testing? And mixing up play might mean early afternoon reveal, not 1 1/2 days before deadline.

He did it when it was like 3-0 on raiders, with more looking to jump on the bandwagon...after his reveal everybody and their mother jumped on the vote blade wagon. Gee, that didnt work. Yes, the time he left us has been key, as it has swung back to a fairly even vote. He made a move to save his friend, did for awhile, and now its game time, bottom of the ninth, 4th quarter...the only thing that matters now is what are you going to do about it?

^^I like that last sentence...sounds like a movie speech in a tense moment

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

God you're so fucking stupid.

Hey RA, look at the end of the last page and address my question to you if you would be so kind. Thanks a lot buddy

Raiders Army · 04-20-2006, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

RA, not 1 day ago you were accusing me of being a thing for not talking enough and obviously trying to fly under the radar...now im talking too much? Seriously, make up your mind buddy

1 day ago I accused you of flying UTR in the beginning of the game. Look it up. If you could possibly read what people write, then you would see that I say that you talk too much without listening. I have made up my mind.

st.cronin · 04-20-2006, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

He did it when it was like 3-0 on raiders, with more looking to jump on the bandwagon...after his reveal everybody and their mother jumped on the vote blade wagon. Gee, that didnt work. Yes, the time he left us has been key, as it has swung back to a fairly even vote. He made a move to save his friend, did for awhile, and now its game time, bottom of the ninth, 4th quarter...the only thing that matters now is what are you going to do about it?

^^I like that last sentence...sounds like a movie speech in a tense moment

So your scientist character thinks RA is a Thing? Along with CW? That's just goofy. You should know better.

hoopsguy · 04-20-2006, 05:16 PM

Barkeep, I thought earlier about the benefit of CW testing for me. But it doesn't mean all that much.

If he is telling the truth about his role, then it is possible I was converted on Night 1 or Night 2 since he doesn't know (or can't tell) what the processing order is: seer first, or Things first.

If he was converted, he could still be telling the truth about testing me on Night 1. The one thing that he can't do, if converted, is point towards someone as a Thing and have them show up clean.

I would like to get as much mileage out of being tested as possible, but all it absolutely means is that I wasn't an original Thing. Which I know ... and that anyone who agrees with me that we are hunting converts at this point already knows.

I expect a converted seer would say that everyone he "scans" is clean. And he is just fine until we test him or the wrong person he cleared. He can't necessarily control the first, but he can definitely control the 2nd.

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

So your scientist character thinks RA is a Thing? Along with CW? That's just goofy. You should know better.

I think its all too logical....who made the best conversion prospect day 1? RA is saldana is a thing. They fought, they argued, the works...who would expect bitter rivals to be things together(well, besides paranoid ol me). Day 2 CW put out enough hints about being the seer that both barkeep and hoops noticed...to assume a thing couldnt notice too is crazy.

What i find goofy is you assuming im a thing, and i would call you a scientist but i dont know that you have ever claimed a role.

Raiders Army · 04-20-2006, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

If its typical blade why would you vote for me? Would that not imply im playing my typical villager game? And if dubb is a villager, which i dont know, id assume he grabbed on to it becuase it makes quite a bit of sense. Night one saldana converts you, who during day 1 was his arch enemy and the one most onto him being a thing. Makes perfect sense...day 2, id assume you picked up on the CW hints about being a seer he put out there and made your move. Day 3 comes around and you suddenly find your as good as dead...what could possibly save you? How about a seer reveal claiming you are good? And then when we ask if that same seer will be tested he says not for at least 2 days..

No, wait, that cant make sense...because if blade says it it must just be fluff or shit im throwing on the walls.

You're typical Blade now. Before the buttons were pressed on you, you weren't. In all fairness, I think that you didn't have anyone else on to talk to, so that's why you were silent.

Why not put yourself in CW's situation. Let's say you really were the seer. Would you want to reveal yourself and waste a day confirming that fact?

st.cronin · 04-20-2006, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I think its all too logical....who made the best conversion prospect day 1? RA is saldana is a thing. They fought, they argued, the works...who would expect bitter rivals to be things together(well, besides paranoid ol me). Day 2 CW put out enough hints about being the seer that both barkeep and hoops noticed...to assume a thing couldnt notice too is crazy.

What i find goofy is you assuming im a thing, and i would call you a scientist but i dont know that you have ever claimed a role.

I am a Scientist. Trained at the feet of Aristotle himself.

I just refuse to call myself brilliant ... I leave that for others.

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

You're typical Blade now. Before the buttons were pressed on you, you weren't. In all fairness, I think that you didn't have anyone else on to talk to, so that's why you were silent.

Why not put yourself in CW's situation. Let's say you really were the seer. Would you want to reveal yourself and waste a day confirming that fact?

I already stated i wouldnt not reveal myself until i had a thing or at least 4-5-6 cleared villagers. Coming out on day 2 with 1 really cleared villager is utterly madness to me...which i why i dont buy it.

Raiders Army · 04-20-2006, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, I can answer you on Night 1 about getting (or not getting) a message about being tested. I'll hold off for now to see what answer Raiders gives.

My answer is like it is in every other game. I didn't get any message. Why would we?

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am a Scientist. Trained at the feet of Aristotle himself.

I just refuse to call myself brilliant ... I leave that for others.

What reasons do you have to be so sure of me being a thing other then you dont like my logic?

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

My answer is like it is in every other game. I didn't get any message. Why would we?

CW claimed genetecist...that would imply he had to test your blood, implying he would have had to of had your cooperation or take it while sleeping. One of those 2 might cause a message to be sent. Just checking all our options here

Schmidty · 04-20-2006, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

God you're so fucking stupid.

Please don't do that kind of crap in my game. I expect you guys to respect each other and act like actual adults.

Abe Sargent · 04-20-2006, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Please don't do that kind of crap in my game. I expect you guys to respect each other and act like actual adults.

*applauds*

-Anxiety

Raiders Army · 04-20-2006, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Hey RA, look at the end of the last page and address my question to you if you would be so kind. Thanks a lot buddy

Did I answer it? I'm not sure, but I responded to two of your posts. I might've missed it though...

path12 · 04-20-2006, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

My reasoning has been out there. CW was not about to get tested (I think he had no votes on him at the time), so if he's a Thing, why bust out with a fake reveal at that particular time? It makes even less sense if both him and RA are Things, since RA was in the lead. 9 times out of 10, when somebody pulls a reveal, they draw votes. It would be a really, really bad play for a Thing.

Well, I do understand this view. But for me it's so out there that it actually gains viability. It's a ballsy all-or-nothing play, and risky as hell, but if they can buy a day or two to convert more things they've put themselves in the drivers seat.

Raiders was likely going to be tested, which if this hypothesis is correct would have left Coffee as the only thing remaining as the converted seer.....so I can see them trying the hail mary at this point.

Raiders Army · 04-20-2006, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Please don't do that kind of crap in my game. I expect you guys to respect each other and act like actual adults.

Well, I wanted to delete it or edit it because I immediately felt bad about it...

I would've changed it to:

"You're playing a really good role ignoring what I'm saying even though I shout it out to you."

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Did I answer it? I'm not sure, but I responded to two of your posts. I might've missed it though...

You did, it was the question about being notified of the testing. Thank you kindly buddy

hoopsguy · 04-20-2006, 05:28 PM

Votes as of Post #1088:

Blade - Anxiety (696), Raiders (710), Cronin (722), mckerney (771)

Coffee - WVUFAN (741), Blade (895), Swaggs (930), Dubb (931), Path (985)

Tanglewood - Hoopsguy (922)

Dubb - Coffee (946), JeeberD (952)

Swaggs - Barkeep (1038)

Not Voted: Tanglewood

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:29 PM

So its basically a tie as i doubt Coffee will keep his vote on dubb and let himself be tested currently. Maybe im mistaken though, which would be a bad thing with what i could imply

Abe Sargent · 04-20-2006, 05:29 PM

If Blade is not a Thing-y, I'm warning everybody here that I am going to make a vote in the next round that may upset some of your assumptions.

-Anxiety

Raiders Army · 04-20-2006, 05:29 PM

If CW was trying the hail mary, it would be stupid. Once you test someone other than us, the target immediately goes to us. Tomorrow you take us both out with the first vote, then the second. I just don't get why you guys don't see that. It would kill him unnecessarily.

Let's say we're both Things and he remained silent. I'm killed today, and he converts someone tonight. Why would he need to "save" me?

hoopsguy · 04-20-2006, 05:29 PM

Confirmed - I received no message on Night 1 about being tested.

Swaggs · 04-20-2006, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I already stated i wouldnt not reveal myself until i had a thing or at least 4-5-6 cleared villagers. Coming out on day 2 with 1 really cleared villager is utterly madness to me...which i why i dont buy it.

This is kind of a curious statement. You were in the brilliant crowd to begin with, so how would have anything special to reveal?

Abe Sargent · 04-20-2006, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

This is kind of a curious statement. You were in the brilliant crowd to begin with, so how would have anything special to reveal?

True.

-Anxiety

Blade6119 · 04-20-2006, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

If CW was trying the hail mary, it would be stupid. Once you test someone other than us, the target immediately goes to us. Tomorrow you take us both out with the first vote, then the second. I just don't get why you guys don't see that. It would kill him unnecessarily.

Let's say we're both Things and he remained silent. I'm killed today, and he converts someone tonight. Why would he need to "save" me?

CW already said he wants WVU to go tomorrow, after me, and to top it all off his vote today is on dubb. Your partner in crime doesnt share your view im afraid

hoopsguy · 04-20-2006, 05:31 PM

RA, I don't expect that it is a lock that a conversion happens. Bodyguard, blessed, something - realistically, I would expect Schmidty to put something in there that makes it less than 100%.

But if RA/CW are the Things, then why did RA let Saldana rot but now CW is saving RA? That seems like an inconsistent play to me.

04-20-2006, 04:27 PM	#1051
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	Good luck in the vote, ive gotta run, ill be out until late tonight if not tomorrow...test me, test CW, realisticly the odds are quite slim on any one person. But do what your gut tells you is right and we can all deal with the results in our own ways. __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

04-20-2006, 04:43 PM	#1055
WVUFAN College Starter Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Huntington, WV	I'm not so sure anymore there's been any special roles truly revealed aside from Barkeep's so far. I re-iterate my vote for Coffee. __________________

04-20-2006, 04:45 PM	#1057
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	I see that apparently CW is now in the lead to be tested. I am more sure that he is NOT a Thing than that Blade IS a Thing. I have played this game mostly close to the vest. I will continue to do so: I have my suspects and Blade is at the top of the list. CW is one of about three of you that I am sure is NOT a Thing. For today. My vote stands. I hope the rest of you come to your senses about CW. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

04-20-2006, 04:46 PM	#1059
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	dola I also have to admit I have played this game badly. I misread a couple of people early on. But I think I have the hang of it now. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

04-20-2006, 05:29 PM	#1093
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	So its basically a tie as i doubt Coffee will keep his vote on dubb and let himself be tested currently. Maybe im mistaken though, which would be a bad thing with what i could imply __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

04-20-2006, 04:29 PM	#1052
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Ok here's what I'm wondering: I think we made a mistake yesterday but not doing a mass reveal. We were so close, and frankly the amount of people playing in this game is going to be nearly constant until the end, I feel, that having that information out there when we were likely 1 shitface away from winning was a mistake. OH well, a missed opportunity indeed.

04-20-2006, 04:38 PM	#1054
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Barkeep, if you want to go that route then today would be more viable than tomorrow if we miss here. We can still get two of them in one day, but if we miss today and they convert tonight then we are playing at least until Day 5. That said, if we are playing with two converts they will just say what their original roles were and have complete knowledge on how those roles work if they are in fact special roles. The bodyguard role would be a helpful one, as we could rule out people being converted on a given night. Which would strongly imply that they weren't converted, since there would only have been one chance to do so. Also, they may have knowledge on how their ability works if they guard a Thing based on Q&A with the moderator. But I want that guy out there hidden as a deterrant against high-probability conversions, which we lose if he comes forward. Risk/reward is high on both sides. I don't feel like we are in dire straights right now, but it could slip away from us quickly if we miss today. Seeing as how we have not had one come forward yet, I am guessing there is not a witness role in this game.

04-20-2006, 04:44 PM	#1056
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I don't think it makes sense at this point with 2 shitfaces out there. It was an idea that just came to me thoguh and I was lamenting our not doing it yesterday.

04-20-2006, 04:50 PM	#1061
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	See I think close to the vest is absolute shit in this game. With information changing based on conversion almost every night I think to a certain extent having as much information out there as possible is beneficial.

04-20-2006, 04:52 PM	#1064
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Swaggs, yes I'm assuming that Qwik and Saldana were the original Things. Which I beleive I have covered in my "assumptions" posts, although they may be buried at this point. I can dig that up again if people are interested. If Qwik was a Thing, he had to be an original. Only possible way that isn't the case is if Things converted him Night 1 prior to Barkeep getting to have his PK. It isn't impossbible, but Barkeep had 15 people to pick from and Things had 14 people (assuming two at start) to pick from, so for them to select the same guy seems peculiar. Especially since Barkeep was looking for someone who struck him as a Thing while the Things were looking for someone who could escape detection. Saldana isn't as sure a Thing - it is possible he was converted on Night 1. But if I was a Thing then I wouldn't have touched him with a ten foot pole after that rant he went on towards Raiders about his un-subtle simple/brilliant reveal. Ergo, they were the original Things.

04-20-2006, 04:54 PM	#1066
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	DOLA -- WHich I don't really buy all things considered at this moment.

04-20-2006, 05:10 PM	#1070
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	There is no way we are about to lose with 2 (1 confirmed, 1 strongly assumed) kills on the books. Reveal is an end-game strategy insofar as we can end the game with a Thing-Thing sequence today. But not for the Things at this point. I agree on the early reveal versus late reveal. I can see a veteran player mixing up their play, but this is a weird game to try the fake reveal because what role can you come up with that will preclude testing? And mixing up play might mean early afternoon reveal, not 1 1/2 days before deadline.

04-20-2006, 05:16 PM	#1078
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Barkeep, I thought earlier about the benefit of CW testing for me. But it doesn't mean all that much. If he is telling the truth about his role, then it is possible I was converted on Night 1 or Night 2 since he doesn't know (or can't tell) what the processing order is: seer first, or Things first. If he was converted, he could still be telling the truth about testing me on Night 1. The one thing that he can't do, if converted, is point towards someone as a Thing and have them show up clean. I would like to get as much mileage out of being tested as possible, but all it absolutely means is that I wasn't an original Thing. Which I know ... and that anyone who agrees with me that we are hunting converts at this point already knows. I expect a converted seer would say that everyone he "scans" is clean. And he is just fine until we test him or the wrong person he cleared. He can't necessarily control the first, but he can definitely control the 2nd.

04-20-2006, 05:28 PM	#1092
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Votes as of Post #1088: Blade - Anxiety (696), Raiders (710), Cronin (722), mckerney (771) Coffee - WVUFAN (741), Blade (895), Swaggs (930), Dubb (931), Path (985) Tanglewood - Hoopsguy (922) Dubb - Coffee (946), JeeberD (952) Swaggs - Barkeep (1038) Not Voted: Tanglewood

04-20-2006, 05:29 PM	#1094
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	If Blade is not a Thing-y, I'm warning everybody here that I am going to make a vote in the next round that may upset some of your assumptions. -Anxiety __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

04-20-2006, 05:29 PM	#1095
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	If CW was trying the hail mary, it would be stupid. Once you test someone other than us, the target immediately goes to us. Tomorrow you take us both out with the first vote, then the second. I just don't get why you guys don't see that. It would kill him unnecessarily. Let's say we're both Things and he remained silent. I'm killed today, and he converts someone tonight. Why would he need to "save" me?

04-20-2006, 05:29 PM	#1096
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Confirmed - I received no message on Night 1 about being tested.

04-20-2006, 05:31 PM	#1100
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	RA, I don't expect that it is a lock that a conversion happens. Bodyguard, blessed, something - realistically, I would expect Schmidty to put something in there that makes it less than 100%. But if RA/CW are the Things, then why did RA let Saldana rot but now CW is saving RA? That seems like an inconsistent play to me.

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