Werewolf CLIX- Haunted Hotel

[Lathum]

I think we gain a lot of info from an EF lynch. EF and Bulletsponge voted each other D1 and 2 so I think we can gather a lot about that relationship. There were 4 EF votes d2. Knowing Autumn was vanilla do we think both wolves were on him? I know I am not a wolf, that leaves Bullet and Danny. If EF is a wolf they look better, if not I think it narrows down our list.

[EagleFan]

I'm out for a while today so I am putting a placeholder in.

vote brit

[bulletsponge]

Vote Danny

i bet hes a wolf, hes very un-danny like this game. i can feel it in my bones and im surprised nobody else suspects him

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Danny

Packer is playing awfully tentative so far this game and has placed two very early votes for villagers and stuck with it. He also had a vote on him yesterday and garnered no support at all. I am going to go there for now and at least see how he reacts and what develops.

vote packerfanatic

OMG WHAT HOW DARE YOU!!!!

That a good enough reaction for you?

Honestly, I haven't had much time to do anything this game unfortunately, so my "analysis" hasn't been there. I will try and take a look at things a bit more today but being vanilla, I would be happy to take a bullet if it helps clear things up (which I can't imagine it will, but who knows!)

[Lathum]

Danny is one that stood out to me as well. Since I know Autumn and Myself are vanilla, and I am to believe if EF is a villager that puts Danny as a likely wolf.

I don't thin both EF and Bullet are wolves based off the first 2 days votes

[claphamsa]

oooo oooo oo ooooo
me/ ghostly wails

[britrock88]

It's been a very quiet game, generally. Makes you think about the people that typically dominate the post counts.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think we gain a lot of info from an EF lynch. EF and Bulletsponge voted each other D1 and 2 so I think we can gather a lot about that relationship. There were 4 EF votes d2. Knowing Autumn was vanilla do we think both wolves were on him? I know I am not a wolf, that leaves Bullet and Danny. If EF is a wolf they look better, if not I think it narrows down our list.

Danny and EF also did a bit of dancing around each other in the D2 vote. I'll side with this look at things for now.

Vote EagleFan

[Lathum]

Vet EF

[murrayyyyy]

vote Danny

I just think he is playing a little different (but isn't that the goal every time?)

[Narcizo]

I've been thinking about it all day but I don't really know what to do. I know we're being lead up an alley. I wanted to hold on and see how the votes fell and I've pretty much done that with only Chief and Packers left to vote.

I'm Madame Clairvoya and Lathum is a wolfy. I'm worried I tipped my hand too much early this morning. In retrospect I should probably have voted somewhere else and held on for another night. But what is done is done. My scans are;

Night 1: Danny - villager
Night 2: Lathum - not villager

You won't believe how many times I changed my mind about scanning Lathum - I didn't believe he would pull the "vote me" stunt on day one. I was going to scan Packers. Then Chief. Then Lathum. Then Packers. And then Lathum. But after the last couple of games I couldn't leave it alone so I scanned him and he's a big, fat wolfy-wolf. This makes up for the other games at least. Even if I am going to go to my untimely fate tonight.

[murrayyyyy]

unvote Danny
vote Lathum

Might as well move my vote now until someone claims a fake reveal. Got 7 hours still.

[Narcizo]

I realise that without the matyr I'm dead meat but clap buying it made me think that maybe I'd been targeted already. I dunno. Maybe I'm just being paranoid. Revealing now means that we don't have to vote Danny tonight and we get the wolves down to one. At 5:1:1 we should have a decent chance to work things out. (I say "we" but I mean "you", of course).

I actually think Eagles will bear looking at tomorrow. Reading Lathum's posts it's pretty hard to make out if he's most suspicious of Danny, Eagles or Bullet. No idea what's going on there but it makes me think he might have a move to Danny planned later on. Other than that you guys are on your own.

[Narcizo]

I'll try to come back later in the evening (my time). I hate being a seer. In my ideal werewolf game I'm vanilla every day.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

13:24 #69 bulletsponge votes mauchow (3)
13:33 #72 Lathum votes mauchow (4)
13:43 #73 Narcizo unvotes mauchow (3), votes bulletsponge (2)
14:19 #74 Bulletsponge unvotes mauchow (2), votes Narcizo (1)
17:06 #82 fontisian votes Lathum (1)
18:25 #92 Eaglefan votes Lathum (2)
20:27 #104 Autumn unvotes Bullet (1), votes mauchow (3)
20:38 #113 Chief Rum votes Bullet (2)
20:41 #116 fontisian unvotes Lathum (1), votes Eagle (3)
20:45 #118 Eagle unvotes Lathum (0), votes bullet (3)
20:58 #127 Danny unvotes Eagle (2), votes mau (4)
21:00 #129 fontisian unvotes Eagle (1), votes mau (5)

Lathum gets a couple of votes here. Fontisian is one of them and Eagles is the other. I'd kind of expect Lathum would tell Eagles to vote him in that situation, if Eagles is the other wolf. Then Lathum voted Eagles yesterday and today. Lathum tends to vote wolf when he is one, so I could easily see Eagles being the other wolf.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I've been thinking about it all day but I don't really know what to do. I know we're being lead up an alley. I wanted to hold on and see how the votes fell and I've pretty much done that with only Chief and Packers left to vote.

I'm Madame Clairvoya and Lathum is a wolfy. I'm worried I tipped my hand too much early this morning. In retrospect I should probably have voted somewhere else and held on for another night. But what is done is done. My scans are;

Night 1: Danny - villager
Night 2: Lathum - not villager

You won't believe how many times I changed my mind about scanning Lathum - I didn't believe he would pull the "vote me" stunt on day one. I was going to scan Packers. Then Chief. Then Lathum. Then Packers. And then Lathum. But after the last couple of games I couldn't leave it alone so I scanned him and he's a big, fat wolfy-wolf. This makes up for the other games at least. Even if I am going to go to my untimely fate tonight.

i dont believe you

[bulletsponge]

why would you do a reveal right now? it makes no sense. also claiming to clear Danny (someone whom i suspect)

im willing to bet that both Narcizo and Danny are wolves... erm ghosts

[bulletsponge]

i think the wolves are trying to create a false circle of trust. Narc and danny are willing to sacrifice lathum to get cleared and then pick everyone else off

[bulletsponge]

maybe lathum is the cultist whos being fed to the village

[britrock88]

I'm having a brain-dead moment and forgetting whether the cultist will have knowledge of the wolves' identities, or how he might find that out.

[britrock88]

But running through bullet's idea that the wolves are offering up their cultist--

We lynch the cultist -> 5:2
Wolves NK -> 4:2

So that would leave the village with zero leeway in lynches going forward.

[britrock88]

Reasons for Narc to reveal now (true or false):

- the time difference and his being gone for the day before too long
- the real seer might not read a mid-day post for several hours, diminishing the chances of a counter-reveal

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

why would you do a reveal right now? it makes no sense. also claiming to clear Danny (someone whom i suspect)

im willing to bet that both Narcizo and Danny are wolves... erm ghosts

I'm not going to be around much more tonight - I waited pretty much as long as I could to reveal - so that the whole day wouldn't be a wash and we'd get some information from it. I got a wolf and I want to make sure that the wolf gets lynched. Like I said, maybe I should have hung on and waited till tomorrow but I didn't want to take the risk.

Why would I reveal now if I'm a wolf. I haven't had any heat all game. I'd vote Danny and hope to survive off of whatever trust I could get from it.

A better argument would be that I'm a cultist trying to save Danny. But again, why take the risk? If I were the cultist I've got to realise that I'm going to get caught out sooner rather than later and Danny won't last much longer afterwards.

Of course, the easiest reason is that I'm telling the truth.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I'm having a brain-dead moment and forgetting whether the cultist will have knowledge of the wolves' identities, or how he might find that out.

Here -

Originally Posted by Zinto

Cultist- Is obsessed with ghosts. Can scan a player each night to see if they are the seer. Does know who the wolves are. Counts as a villager for end game purposes.

[Lathum]

Narcs lying. You can lynch me if you want to find out but we will be chasing our tales at that point

Unvote EF
Vote Narc

Why does NArc reveal now? He is under no pressure to be lynched and has a vote out there for me, so if he is night killed it will lead people back to me.

I say he is likely the cultist.

Also, with no bodyguard he is useless to us since he will be killed tonight, so we may as well lynch him to see if he is being honest.

[Lathum]

unvote EF
vote NArc

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm not going to be around much more tonight - I waited pretty much as long as I could to reveal - so that the whole day wouldn't be a wash and we'd get some information from it. I got a wolf and I want to make sure that the wolf gets lynched. Like I said, maybe I should have hung on and waited till tomorrow but I didn't want to take the risk.

Why would I reveal now if I'm a wolf. I haven't had any heat all game. I'd vote Danny and hope to survive off of whatever trust I could get from it.

A better argument would be that I'm a cultist trying to save Danny. But again, why take the risk? If I were the cultist I've got to realise that I'm going to get caught out sooner rather than later and Danny won't last much longer afterwards.

Of course, the easiest reason is that I'm telling the truth.

sounds like you made a Freudian slip there admiting dannys a wolf. you said you could have kept quiet and voted danny and gain trust for voting for him. well how could you gain trust for voting for someone you "claimed" is a villager?

ive seen wolves make this exact mistake in previous games while trying to explain a mistake (when im a wolf with them)

im more convinced than ever Danny is a wolf and your in cahoots with him

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by britrock88

But running through bullet's idea that the wolves are offering up their cultist--

We lynch the cultist -> 5:2
Wolves NK -> 4:2

So that would leave the village with zero leeway in lynches going forward.

Your numbers are wrong there brit - it would be 6:2 after lynch and 5:2 after the kill. Gives you another day.

The cultist doesn't scan as a ghost so that would be a hare-brained scheme by me.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

sounds like you made a Freudian slip there admiting dannys a wolf. you said you could have kept quiet and voted danny and gain trust for voting for him. well how could you gain trust for voting for someone you "claimed" is a villager?

ive seen wolves make this exact mistake in previous games while trying to explain a mistake (when im a wolf with them)

im more convinced than ever Danny is a wolf and your in cahoots with him

I kind of hoped people would realise I was speaking hypothetically.

[britrock88]

Dear god, my math is bad lately.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Narcs lying. You can lynch me if you want to find out but we will be chasing our tales at that point

Unvote EF
Vote Narc

Why does NArc reveal now? He is under no pressure to be lynched and has a vote out there for me, so if he is night killed it will lead people back to me.

I say he is likely the cultist.

Also, with no bodyguard he is useless to us since he will be killed tonight, so we may as well lynch him to see if he is being honest.

i dont know if your a victim of Narc and Dannys nafarious plan, or are part of it and your the cultist/wolf whos the sacrificial lamb to get people to trust them. but theres one way to know for sure, lynch Narc or Danny. i prefer danny because im sure hes a wolf, while Narc is either a wolf or cultist

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Also, with no bodyguard he is useless to us since he will be killed tonight, so we may as well lynch him to see if he is being honest.

I think we should kill you to see if I'm being honest.

[britrock88]

And, remembering Lathum's "vote me if you're going to lynch a vanilla" post on D1, I'm beginning to feel pretty strongly that Lathum's the cultist. Whether that indicates that Narc is a wolf or simply mistaken in his interpretation of "not village," I don't know.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I think we should kill you to see if I'm being honest.

which is why i think lath is the cultist. it then makes you and danny look good and then the remaining villagers start killing each other while you 2 laugh at us

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

which is why i think lath is the cultist. it then makes you and danny look good and then the remaining villagers start killing each other while you 2 laugh at us

Citing Danny could be a decoy, though...

[britrock88]

Imagine if this is how things happen:

1- lynch Narcizo -- 6-1-1
2- NK a villager -- 5-1-1
3- lynch Danny based on Narc's clue, only to have him be a villager -- 4-1-1
4- NK a villager -- 3-1-1

That would leave the baddies in a position to either 1) swing 1 vote on D5, or 2) have the 4 non-cultists swing and miss on the last wolf, to come up with the victory. The remaining wolf would play UTR, and Lathum (on the assumption he's the cultist) would hang around for a deadline switch, if needed.

[britrock88]

And the wolves would work their NKs such that it'd be a questionable lot left on Friday to give each other the stink-eye, natch.

[britrock88]

Well, as I go off for a while, I'll align my vote with my current line of thinking.

Unvote EagleFan
Vote Narcizo

[Narcizo]

Follow Lathum's plan and lynch Danny or me. 5:1:2
Wolves nk me or Danny 4:1:2
Lynch Lathum 4:1:1
Wolves nk someone 3:1:1

So Lathum is being disingenious suggesting that we "might as well" lynch one of us.

[bulletsponge]

question for Zinto. can the cultist communicate with the wolves by PM?

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Follow Lathum's plan and lynch Danny or me. 5:1:2
Wolves nk me or Danny 4:1:2
Lynch Lathum 4:1:1
Wolves nk someone 3:1:1

So Lathum is being disingenious suggesting that we "might as well" lynch one of us.

if we vote danny, then it would be 6-1-1

[EagleFan]

I will most likely be out the rest of the day. Will try to check in via phone if I can.

unvote brit

vote Lathum

[Narcizo]

And we KNOW how well the village does in those situations. I'd go as far as to say that we lose in that position.

Lynch Lathum and its 6:1:1
Wolves nk me 5:1:1

We're in a much better place. We have a cleared villager who can analyse the situation and get two swings of the bat.

[Narcizo]

But yeah, go ahead and lynch the seer or the cleared villager. That will be pretty much in keeping with the village effort so far.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

And we KNOW how well the village does in those situations. I'd go as far as to say that we lose in that position.

Lynch Lathum and its 6:1:1
Wolves nk me 5:1:1

We're in a much better place. We have a cleared villager who can analyse the situation and get two swings of the bat.

your not a villager either. your a wolf or cultist

i dont believe for a second your the seer. you just want to get the seer to come clean so you can kill him

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by britrock88

The Martyr, eh? Would the wolves like to tell us who they were going for?

For the record, since I wasn't able to explain earlier. This post looked odd to me. When I first read it I had no idea what he was talking about. Then I checked the roles and see that it sounds like the martyr could be killed on protect. I was assuming normal BG type role (I need to read the rules a little better).

That made me wonder how he would immediately assume the wolves attack was blocked. There would only be one way that he would know that.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Follow Lathum's plan and lynch Danny or me. 5:1:2
Wolves nk me or Danny 4:1:2
Lynch Lathum 4:1:1
Wolves nk someone 3:1:1

So Lathum is being disingenious suggesting that we "might as well" lynch one of us.

what plan?

Up until your fake reveal I was voting EF. I'm only voting you because I know you are lying

[Narcizo]

Day One

11:57 #39 Danny votes Claphamsa (1)
12:14 #41 britrock votes Danny (1)
02:16 #44 Narcizo votes mauchow (1)
08:05 #46 mauchow votes narcizo (1)
08:49 #48 Packer votes mauchow (2)
09:14 #50 mauchow unvotes narcizo (0), votes Packers (1)
09:49 #54 Danny unvotes Clap (0)
11:42 #59 Autumn votes bulletsponge (1)
12:42 #63 murra5y votes Eaglefan (1)
13:13 #66 Danny votes Eaglefan (2)
13:24 #68 Clap votes Autumn (1)

13:24 #69 bulletsponge votes mauchow (3)
13:33 #72 Lathum votes mauchow (4)
13:43 #73 Narcizo unvotes mauchow (3), votes bulletsponge (2)
14:19 #74 Bulletsponge unvotes mauchow (2), votes Narcizo (1)
17:06 #82 fontisian votes Lathum (1)
18:25 #92 Eaglefan votes Lathum (2)
20:27 #104 Autumn unvotes Bullet (1), votes mauchow (3)
20:38 #113 Chief Rum votes Bullet (2)
20:41 #116 fontisian unvotes Lathum (1), votes Eagle (3)
20:45 #118 Eagle unvotes Lathum (0), votes bullet (3)
20:58 #127 Danny unvotes Eagle (2), votes mau (4)
21:00 #129 fontisian unvotes Eagle (1), votes mau (5)

mauchow 5 - Packerfanatic (48), Lathum (72), Autumn (104), Danny (127), fontisian (129)
bulletsponge 3 - Narcizo (73), Chief Rum (113), EagleFan(118)
Packerfanatic 1 - mauchow (50)
Eaglefan 1 - murra5y (63)
Autumn 1 - claphamsa (68)
Narcizo 1 - bulletsponge (74)
Danny 1 - britrock (41)

[Narcizo]

Day Two

02:54 #151 Narcizo votes Packers (1)
07:52 #154 Eagles votes brit (1)
08:08 #155 Lathum votes Eagles (1)
09:07 #156 Packers votes Autumn (1)
09:09 #158 Bullet votes Eagles (2)
10:15 #162 Brit votes Autumn (2)
13:22 #170 Danny votes Eagles (3)
13:28 #172 Claphamsa votes Danny (1)

14:16 #182 Autumn votes Narcizo (1)
14:16 #183 murra5y votes Autumn (3)
14:57 #189 murra5y unvotes Autumn (2), votes Danny (2)
15:15 #190 Eagles unvotes brit (0), votes Danny (3)
15:29 #191 Narcizo unvotes Packers (0), votes Autumn (3)
19:15 #203 Chief Rum votes Autumn (4)
20:30 #217 Autumn unvotes narcizo (0), votes Eagles (4)
20:34 #223 Eagles unvotes Danny (2), votes Autumn (5)

Autumn 5 - Packers (156), Britrock (162), Narcizo (191), Chief Rum (203), Eagles (223)
Eagles 4 - Lathum (155), Bullet (158), Danny (170), Autumn (217)
Danny 2 - Claphamsa (172), murra5y (189)

[Lathum]

Not really sure what I can say. I am in an indefensible position unless the seer reveals.

You want to lynch me, fine, go ahead. If Narc is the cultist he is next and we could be in some real trouble then.

Or lynch neither of us and let Narc explain why he is still alive come tomorrow.

In fact, I think that is the best plan.