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Old 04-14-2015, 02:36 PM   #501
Autumn
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vote vaimes
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Old 04-14-2015, 02:39 PM   #502
fontisian
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I mean, the game changes significantly based on EF's alignment.

If he's scum, JAG looks really bad for not switching his vote yesterDay and then starting toDay with a soft push for EF's lynch. Path, Shoveler and Vaimes also look really good for their placement on the EF wagon.

If he's town, then we can guess that scum were fairly evenly distributed across the wagons, and probably didn't switch a lot. I'd be willing to lynch Shoveler in that case (as I have town reads independent of their votes on Vaimes and Path), but I absolutely won't lynch him without a town flip from EF.
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Old 04-14-2015, 02:40 PM   #503
Zinto
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Old 04-14-2015, 02:45 PM   #504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven View Post
If you were playing every game with a different set of players, it would make sense. But, at FOFC, you're playing every game with roughly the same set of players.

I don't believe you will play bloodthirsty every time you are a villager and completely different when a wolf. If you did, you'd blow your cover every time you were wolf.
...

Yes.

So, you believe that me being bloodthirsty is not alignment indicative for me.
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Old 04-14-2015, 02:59 PM   #505
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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
How exactly does the EF situation get resolved without a lynch?

I suspect the britrock kill was either made because they thought he was the seer or made to make EF look good. I don't care to analyze a kill that I have relatively little information about.

If Eagle was a wolf he wouldn't believe Brit was the seer - after last game's debacle you'd think he'd reveal as a seer at some stage down the stretch. And the kill doesn't really make Eagle look good if anything the opposite. I just can't believe that wolf-Eagle would put that order in. Possibly if he thought a tie was going to kill him and a villager and he knew it was going to be a tie. But how could he?

That said I'm getting some of what you're saying and Eagle tying the vote is a worse village play than what Chief has been calling Vaimes and you out for. His early reaction today looks wolfy before he blows up but I can't see him making that kill.
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Old 04-14-2015, 02:59 PM   #506
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I could get behind a Shoveler vote just from what I've seen. I don't want to vote font because if she is good she is so valuable -- but what she is choosing to question is giving me pause.
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:01 PM   #507
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And where is JAG?
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:01 PM   #508
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Path, explain why you think the EF situation will be resolved.
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:02 PM   #509
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vote EF
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:37 PM   #510
Narcizo
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Time's up for me

unvote Raven
Vote Shoveler


Best of a fairly crap bunch. I'm almost tempted to leave my vote where it is.
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:50 PM   #511
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
The problem with that is the word "again."

I haven't attacked EF before this game. In fact, I townread him for the past two games. We have already discussed this in this thread.

If EF was betting on a no-lynch, why did he say he was hoping for a lynch on both him and Cheeki?

I would re-read what I wrote there more closely. I didn't say who attacked him before or when it happened. I was generally referring to the constancy of your attack on him in this game AND his Day One targeting in the last game, which he referenced, in which he was a Day One lynch as a seer.

The man has dealt with quite a lot of attacking. It was not specific to you outside of this game. I have no idea what sort of history you have with EF (nor is it relevant, really).
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:54 PM   #512
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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
If EF was betting on a no-lynch, why did he say he was hoping for a lynch on both him and Cheeki?

Did you ask him? I don't know where EF's mind was at. As I noted, he was clearly quite emotional and frustrated and irrational. He seemed to actually hope if he was going to have to die, that at least maybe someone else would die too who might actually be a wolf, and thus provide us with voting history.

Clearly he felt his own death would not provide us with much.
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:55 PM   #513
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
Did you ask him? I don't know where EF's mind was at. As I noted, he was clearly quite emotional and frustrated and irrational. He seemed to actually hope if he was going to have to die, that at least maybe someone else would die too who might actually be a wolf, and thus provide us with voting history.

Clearly he felt his own death would not provide us with much.
...

He already told us where his mind was at. I actually quoted the post in my case.
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:56 PM   #514
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I don't care to analyze a kill that I have relatively little information about.

Ironic.
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:57 PM   #515
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Ironic.
Chief, are you going to do anything actually helpful toDay?
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:59 PM   #516
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
I mean, the game changes significantly based on EF's alignment.

If he's scum, JAG looks really bad for not switching his vote yesterDay and then starting toDay with a soft push for EF's lynch. Path, Shoveler and Vaimes also look really good for their placement on the EF wagon.

If he's town, then we can guess that scum were fairly evenly distributed across the wagons, and probably didn't switch a lot. I'd be willing to lynch Shoveler in that case (as I have town reads independent of their votes on Vaimes and Path), but I absolutely won't lynch him without a town flip from EF.

Finally! This is the sort of approach that I could see rationalizing an EF lynch. His death provides us with clarity on that first vote.

That is completely logical to me and a reason to vote for EF, as opposed to "I am getting a scum read, vote EF, vote EF, vote EF".

All that said, what has transpired since still has me reading him as a villager, so I would view a lynch on EF right now as a wasted exercise. I would prefer the seer scan him and get us info on his allegiance at some point going forward (when it is safer to do so).
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:04 PM   #517
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Ok, the seer strategy makes no sense.

Right now, we know that EF is the least likely person to have been Seer scanned alive. Literally anyone else we go for could have been scanned town, and going after them risks outing the seer or lynching a townie. Having a seer scan EF later as a way to resolve the issue means the seer is not scanning someone else.

Either you want think EF is scum or you do not. Don't depend on the seer to take care of it.

To address Chief specifically, you have once again failed to give your reasoning for thinking EF is town. This is hypocritical, after you attacked me for not giving reasoning (when I have) and fits in the pattern of you attacking people for doing useful things while doing nothing useful yourself.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:08 PM   #518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
That said I'm getting some of what you're saying and Eagle tying the vote is a worse village play than what Chief has been calling Vaimes and you out for. His early reaction today looks wolfy before he blows up but I can't see him making that kill.

I agree with you, Narc, that in a very tangible sense (EF makes decision===>bad result for the village) that EF's move was a poor one for the village, in that he either gets no one killed (we lose information) or he gets at least one villager killed besides himself. A wolf would tie the game to hopefully take someone with him.

The problem is, a villager would make a similar decision. If a villager EF is about to be lynched, the villager EF sees that a villager is about to be lynched. So at least by tying it up, he gets a chance to maybe take out a wolf instead or save his villager self.

It's a very iffy decision and only adds to us needing to know EF's allegiance.

All that said, I think there is very real negatives in the strategies employed by Vaimes and font that in the long run are much more negative than the basic decision EF made.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:11 PM   #519
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
Chief, are you going to do anything actually helpful toDay?

No, probably not. And that won't work with me. I don't give enough of a crap to rise to your baiting. It's a game.

I'm just trying to cut through the disinformation and noise you are throwing out there to find a wolf.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:14 PM   #520
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unvote EF
vote shoveler
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:14 PM   #521
Raven
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I'm not voting EF tonight, for previous reasons stated.
I could be possibly swayed to switch to Shoveler or Vaimes if a convincing argument was presented.

For now will go with timmae based on Path's potential tell since he has played with him as a wolf last game, and timmae is generally far more active (and often questions anyone that is not). Seems out of character for him.

vote timmae
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:15 PM   #522
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I'd also like to hear more from timmae
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:16 PM   #523
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
Ok, the seer strategy makes no sense.

Right now, we know that EF is the least likely person to have been Seer scanned alive. Literally anyone else we go for could have been scanned town, and going after them risks outing the seer or lynching a townie. Having a seer scan EF later as a way to resolve the issue means the seer is not scanning someone else.

Either you want think EF is scum or you do not. Don't depend on the seer to take care of it.

To address Chief specifically, you have once again failed to give your reasoning for thinking EF is town. This is hypocritical, after you attacked me for not giving reasoning (when I have) and fits in the pattern of you attacking people for doing useful things while doing nothing useful yourself.

My read on EF is that he is a villager, because of how he responded to your attacks. I believe that reaction is real and not faked. EF is a very good wolf, but I do not think he would fake what he did.

For that reason, I do not believe that actions that will lynch him are helpful to the village. All we do is lynch a villager and uncover that we pretty much know nothing from our Day One lynch.

I would rather have the seer scan him tonight and keep EF alive as a cleared player.

Had you not gone after him so hard to trigger this reaction, I might be right behind looking to lynch him. I even mentioned at times wanting to lynch EF for meta reasons (not revealing as the seer last game).
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:17 PM   #524
Zinto
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Shoveler 3-EagleFan(360), Narcizo(510), The Jackal(520)
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:18 PM   #525
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Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
unvote EF
vote shoveler

Do I get an explanation?
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:19 PM   #526
Chief Rum
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There are probably very real reasons for their lack of posting, but I would love to get more feedback from JAG, Autumn and The Jackal.

These are all frighteningly good players who have not participated as much, and it concerns me that I have no real read on them at all.

I know The Jackal has OOG reasons limiting him, and that is probably the case with Autumn and JAG, too. So I am not trying to say, "Hey, look, wolves."

Just saying, wow, those are some great players we haven't seen much of.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:20 PM   #527
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:21 PM   #528
The Jackal
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I really have been in meetings almost all day, in my last one now .. I'll have more to say later I promise
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:21 PM   #529
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Friggin hate meetings
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:21 PM   #530
Grover
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unvote fontisian
vote timmae


Still wary on font, but no word from timmae is strange. Let's put some pressure on him.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:28 PM   #531
JAG
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Sorry for not being around much, I finished page 9 and have to go again, but Chief and Raven made some fairly compelling points re: EF, so I may revisit that vote.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:28 PM   #532
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Checking in throughout the day... I did post earlier. I am finding the chief/font conversations interesting. Not necessarily thinking either is evil at this point. Need to reread things tonight when I get home. Probably around 8pm cst. Don't waste your time voting for me, I've claimed already.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:30 PM   #533
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I'll decide what's a waste of my time thank you very much
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:30 PM   #534
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hint: this meeting
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:30 PM   #535
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but yes timmae, that last line is and/or should be disregarded by everyone
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:33 PM   #536
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Don't waste your time voting for me, I've claimed already.

You claimed as a vanilla villager, correct?

Forgive me for not having complete faith in that, when we're all posing as the same to start the game.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:35 PM   #537
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Guys, I am pretty sure timmae is joking (and I thought it was pretty funny).
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:38 PM   #538
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
The problem is, a villager would make a similar decision. If a villager EF is about to be lynched, the villager EF sees that a villager is about to be lynched. So at least by tying it up, he gets a chance to maybe take out a wolf instead or save his villager self.
My question, then, is why unvote? Why make the tie a surprise end of day thing? Surely, the actual towny thing to do is to vote the other person up for a lynch and then try to convince people to vote with you. Or, if you're too frustrated to convince people, at least be upfront and honest about the vote totals. The way I see, EF tried to slip in a tie and only unvoted in the hope that it would help confuse the town. That is not a town action.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
All that said, I think there is very real negatives in the strategies employed by Vaimes and font that in the long run are much more negative than the basic decision EF made.
I listened to your complaints about Vaimes, and found that the only one making poor decisions in the long run was you. I've now listened to your complaints about me and again have found them to be worthless and harmful. Similarly, your idea that someone should be lynched for bad play in a previous game is horrific and unfair to the person. Do you have any further points to make?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
My read on EF is that he is a villager, because of how he responded to your attacks. I believe that reaction is real and not faked. EF is a very good wolf, but I do not think he would fake what he did.
Ok. Why do you believe it is real?

Moving on, we are not lynching Shoveler toDay, because he is likely town if EF is scum.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:49 PM   #539
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Guys, I am pretty sure timmae is joking (and I thought it was pretty funny).

maaaaybe
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:55 PM   #540
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unvote shoveler
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:55 PM   #541
The Jackal
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Do I get an explanation?

Partially trying to see what happens, but not a lot of activity at the moment.
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:56 PM   #542
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Everyone is so serious around here.

I reread from the beginning and I am back to my gut read on autumn D1. Some initial fluff posts. Throwing his vote around a bit. Jumping to and fro. Maybe someone can tell me if that is typical autumn or not. Not sure on his meta rep. Then an easy vote for vaimes. Not much pressure being applied to anyone off the radar. And yes, I see the irony in voting for the guy because of a joke post.

vote autumn
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:57 PM   #543
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I agree that it's unlikely that EF/shoveler are on the same side if one is a wolf
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Old 04-14-2015, 05:00 PM   #544
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I feel like there's enough questions about EF (move at the deadline, nightfall desperation stinky cologne) combined with knowing his allegiance benefitting us in the vote analysis.

Brit certainly was a strange target, but not sure I want to use that in a linear assumption that the wolf team doesn't have any vets.
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Old 04-14-2015, 05:02 PM   #545
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To follow-up on that thought - brit could have been a target by the wolves as someone they thought the seer might scan N1, being in the vote and a usually strong contributor as a villager
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Old 04-14-2015, 05:03 PM   #546
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vote autumn
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Old 04-14-2015, 05:05 PM   #547
timmae
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I read EF's exasperation as legit with my knowledge of what went down last game. It's possible he could be a bit theatrical on purpose but I didn't take it as evil!EF.
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Old 04-14-2015, 05:07 PM   #548
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I'm definitely not discounting EF as a wolf. I'm not sure it would have been necessary for him to come out that desperately, although if he is a wolf.. it's kinda workin.
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Old 04-14-2015, 05:08 PM   #549
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Especially if there's a cunning wolf in the game.
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Old 04-14-2015, 05:09 PM   #550
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I don't have any strong feelings like I did last game with Zinto - heck my strongest feeling yesterday was cheeki and that didn't turn out well.
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