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Old 04-25-2015, 11:55 AM   #1151
Narcizo
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Something just occured to me - its probably me being paranoid but Autumn seems to have been very sure that I'm a villager. Obviously I've been grateful that he believes me but it struck me as a bit odd that he's been prepared to overlook me despite my less that stirling village performance. It's probably just me being paranoid, but I think he might be the cultist. I still think he should be listened to, the same as everyone else, I don't want to ruin our chances with my paranoia.

Obviously this makes me look worse than I already am but I can't really do anything about that. It just struck me while I was cooking and I felt I'd better mention it.
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Old 04-26-2015, 01:19 PM   #1152
Narcizo
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OK so I've been thinking way too much about this game. More than is healthy. So I decided I was just going to quit. God it was relief. I actually slept 6 hours in a row. That helped - I realised, it's just a game. If we lose, we lose. - So I'm going to come up with what I've considered.

Procedural stuff is what I'm good at. It's kind of heavy reading Ė sorry about that. There are some details I don't want to go into before we know what's what as I don't want to give the wolves ideas. I want to emphasise that I'm not saying anyone should reveal or do anything Ė I'm just trying to brainstorm.

1- I think we should discuss everyone funnelling their items to Shoveler or Britrock, the completely cleared. I guess there's a risk that the wolves or the cultist will take a shot at them (either the hunter wolf, if there is one or with an ammo clip). If we wanted to play it safe then the person with the ammo clip should send that first. If it comes then everyone else can send their stuff. That way Britrock or Shoveler will know what we've got. If they want they could tell the rest of us and we can claim what items we've sent. The wolves might feel the need to give up items to gain trust which is to our advantage. If Brit or Shove don't want to risk being caught with the items by a brutal or something they can send the items out again to people they trust.

2 - Next the problem of the wolves duking the lynch. Obviously if we know we have the bullhorn then that can be used. I'm going to say that there are other solutions but they're not infallible and I don't want to go into them for now as it might help the wolves with their planning.

3 Ė Or we can use a day kill instead. Might be the best if we don't have the bullhorn. If we have an ammo clip or there is another village hunter we shoot the suspect. (unless the suspect is Eagle or the other hunter in which case we need the ammo clip). If we don't have the clip that means the village hunter is going to have to give himself away shooting.
If the suspect is village we go 4:2:1 Ė we still get a lynch but it may be duked (we lose) or a brutal lynching leaves us 3:1:1 followed by a night kill and we're 2:1:1 at the mercy of day kills or tied votes.
If we hit the brutal with the daykill we're 4:1:1 going into the lynch and we have to hit at least the cultist or we risk being 2:1:1 going into the next day.
Hit a normal wolf and we're 5:1:1 and I think we can afford a misslynch, no lynch (or wolf duking) Ė 4:1:1, 3:1:1 with the night kill.
Hit the cultist and we're 5:2. We can afford to misslynch, just, but are at the mercy of daykills and have to lynch the non-brutal first (I think).

4 Ė I thought about no lynch as a solution (don't know if its legal) but unfortunately it doesn't hold up in most cases. In theory it's good - bodyguard can protect Britrock Ė Britrock can get another scan in. Leaves us 4:2:1 if the wolves nightkill, or 5:3 if they convert. The problem is that the wolves might duke the no lynch and it may run foul of the brutal as well. There are ways to control the duke but, again, I don't want to go into that for now.

Basically we need to know if we have the ammo clip and the bullhorn. It would be nice if one of our two cleareds are the last hunter as well because then we control the daykills and we can possibly use the no lynch route.

Tomorrow I'll post my thoughts about who might be a wolf. I need to think about that a bit more. But I think you can ignore my post above - I don't think Autumn is the cultist. I think he would have fake claimed as seer if he was. He would have it all lined up for after daybreak. I think you can say the same thing about me - Autumn will tell you that I'm not afraid to fake claim if I'm a cultist. But I could be wrong. Maybe he thought he was too distrusted to try it. Maybe he thought Britrock's scan of him benefited him.

So that's it for me. I'm afraid it isn't great reading but there are positives we can use if we have luck with the items.
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Old 04-26-2015, 07:02 PM   #1153
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It definitely feels we're on a cusp where it can end up a win in either direction, depending on who the hunter is, who has the bullhorn, who has the ammo clip. I"m hoping to see more posts from everyone in the morning, as we need to make a very good lynch decision today.
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Old 04-27-2015, 01:13 AM   #1154
Narcizo
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Day One

13:31 #80 timmae votes cheeki (1)
13:36 #81 Vaimes votes font (1)
13:36 #82 Eagle votes timmae (1)
13:37 #85 Martin votes Shoveler (1)
13:37 #85 Vaimes unvotes Font, votes Timmae (2) / Timmae 2
13:40 #89 JAG vote Jackal (1)
13:48 #95 Shoveler votes Vaimes (1)
13:51 #99 Grover votes Narcizo (1)
14:32 #104 Cheeki votes Raven (1)
14:56 #106 Raven votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal 2
15:08 #108 Narcizo votes Zinto (1)
15:35 #113 Britrock votes Shoveler (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
15:38 #115 JAG unvotes Jackal (1), votes Raven (1) / Timmae, Shoveler 2
16.51 #134 Jackal votes Grover (1)
18:57 #148 JAG unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (1)

20:28 #154 Timmae unvotes cheeki (0), votes Jackal (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler 2
20:00 #163 Zinto votes Vaimes (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
22:52 #178 Bug votes Font (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:06 #187 JAG unvotes Fonti (1) / Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
07:37 #190 Cheeki unvotes Raven (0), votes Fonti (2) / Timmae, Jackal, Font, Shoveler; Vaimes 2
08:03 #197 Jag votes cheeki (1)
08:14 #202 Grover unvotes Narc (0), votes Fonti (3) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
09:32 #210 Font votes Grover (2) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Grover, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:09 #229 Jackal unvotes Grover (1) / Font 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
10:27 #237 Jackal votes timmae (3) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Vaimes 2
11:54 #264 Autumn votes cheeki (2) / Font, Timmae 3, Jackal, Shoveler, cheeki, Vaimes 2
11:55 #268 Grover unvotes Font (2), votes Martin (1) / Timmae 3, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2
12.07 #276 Jackal unvotes timmae (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Vaimes 2

12:31 #283 Jackal votes Zinto (2) / Timmae, Font, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto, Vaimes 2
12:40 #293 Cheeki unvotes Font (1), votes Vaimes (3) / Vaimes 3, Timmae, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki, Zinto 2
14:08 #310 Grover unvotes Martin (0)
14:15 #312 Vaimes unvotes Timmae, votes Zinto (3) / Vaimes, Zinto 3, Jackal, Shoveler, Cheeki 2
14:17 #316 JAG unvotes cheeki (1), votes Zinto (4) / Zinto 4, Vaimes 3, Jackal, Shoveler 2
14:18 #317 Britrock unvotes Shoveler (1), votes Jackal (3) / Zinto 4, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:21 #321 Fonti unvotes Grover (1), votes Zinto (5) / Zinto 5, Vaimes, Jackal 3
14:26 #326 Grover votes Zinto (6) / Zinto 6, Jackal , Vaimes 3
14:26 #327 Shoveler unvotes Vaimes (2), votes Jackal (4) / Zinto 5, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
14:59 #343 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Zinto (7) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4, Vaimes 2
15:52 #358 Martin unvotes Shoveler (0), votes Jackal (5) /Zinto 7, Jackal 5, Vaimes 2
15:57 #363 Zinto unvotes Vaimes (1) / Zinto 7, Jackal 4


Zinto (7)-- Narcizo (108), The Jackal (283), Vaimes (312), JAG (316), fontisian (321), Grover (326), Autumn (343)
The Jackal (5)-- Raven (106), timmae (154), britrock88 (317), Shoveler (327), MartinD (358)
Vaimes (1)-- cheekimonk (293)
timmae (1)-- EagleFan (82)
fontisian (1)-- MrBug708 (178)
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Old 04-27-2015, 01:16 AM   #1155
Narcizo
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Day Two

21:36 #464 Autumn votes Cheeki (1)
22:13 #480 Cheeki votes Martin (1)
08:15 #495 Timmae votes Martin (2) / Martin 2
08:24 #496 Grover votes Cheeki (2) / Cheeki 2
08:38 #500 Eagle votes Martin (3) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
10:25 #521 Grover unvotes Cheeki (1) / Martin 3
13:05 #572 Shoveler votes Autumn (1)
13:20 #577 Grover votes MrBug (1)
13:22 #579 Martin votes Cheeki (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki 2
13:29 #580 Narcizo votes Autumn (2) / Martin 3, Cheeki, Autumn 2
13:49 #584 Cheeki unvotes Martin (2), votes Autumn (3) / Autumn 3, Cheeki, Martin 2

14:27 #592 Grover unvotes MrBug (0)
14:35 #595 Raven votes Martin (3) / Autumn, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
14:52 #598 Grover votes Autumn (4) / Autumn 4, Martin 3, Cheeki 2
15:22 #608 Britrock votes Martin (4) /Autumn, Martin 4, Cheeki 2
15:31 #611 Cheeki unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (5) / Martin 5, Autumn 3, Cheeki 2
15:46 #621 Autumn unvotes Cheeki (1), votes Martin (6) / Martin 6, Autumn 3
15:41 #629 Bug votes Autumn (4) / Martin 6, Autumn 4
15:53 #632 Martin unvotes Cheeki (0), votes Autumn (5) / Martin 6, Autumn 5
15:56 #637 Narcizo unvotes Autumn (4), votes Martin (7) / Martin 7, Autumn 4
15:58 #644 Shoveler unvotes Autumn (3), votes Martin (8) / Martin 8, Autumn 3

FINAL Day Two Vote Tally

MartinD (8) -- timmae (495), EagleFan (500), Raven (595), britrock88 (608), cheekimonk (611), Autumn (621), Narcizo (637), Shoveler (644)
Autumn (3) -- Grover (598), MrBug708 (629), MartinD (632)

No Vote: The Jackal, Vaimes
Unable to Vote: fontisian
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Old 04-27-2015, 01:18 AM   #1156
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Day Three

11:21 #799 Cheeki votes fonti (1)
11:38 #806 Autumn votes Fonti (2) / Fonti 2
11:44 #807 Shoveler votes Fonti (3) / Font 3
12:07 #815 Jackal votes Eagle (1)
12:15 #821 Fonti votes Eagle (2) / Font 3, Eagle 2
12:33 #844 Grover votes Eagle (3) / Font, Eagle 3
13:12 #859 Timmae votes Eagle (4) / Eagle 4, Font 3
13:44 #870 Bug votes Eagle (5) / Eagle 5, Font 3
15:15 #885 Narcizo votes Fonti (4) / Eagle 5, Font 4
15:27 #886 Britrock votes Fonti (5) / Eagle, Font 5
15:45 #890 Raven votes Fonti (6) / Font 6, Eagle 5
15:59 #901 Jackal unvotes Eagle, votes Fonti (7) / Font 7, Eagle 4


FINAL Day Three Vote Tally

fontisian (7)-- cheekimonk (799), Autumn (806), Shoveler (807), Narcizo (885), britrock88 (886), Raven (890), The Jackal (901)
EagleFan (4)-- fontisian (821), Grover (844), timmae (859), MrBug708 (870)

Yet to Vote: EagleFan
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Old 04-27-2015, 02:19 AM   #1157
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Ok here goes. I think I got it. I realise that that's going to look dodgy as I was all "I don't know, I'm voting with Shoveler" bullshit on Friday. I admit that it was bullshit although the theory was correct - if in doubt vote with the trusted. I also know that it's wolfy to claim to have the solution to everything - and I admit that I'm not certain about everything. You have to factor in the fact that I tend to get very sure of things at this stage. So I need a critical analysis of this. Like everyone else I've been obsessed with the Vaimes/Martin/Fonti thing for three days, just like Autumn warned us against. But now I know that was a chimera I can think about things that went down.

I think one of the wolves is EagleFan. I'm not sure about the other one but I'm leaning towards Bug. Obviously it's not a great reach for me - I mean as I know I'm village I have a 50% chance of being right with the first pick and 33% chance of getting the other just at random.

To start off with I think it's important to think about Eagle's view on werewolf. He HATES "excel-based vote-analysis" werewolf. I've been in a game where he tried to destroy it with multiple chances for conversions and he got pissed when vote-analysis won the day anyway. But he misunderstands what vote-analysis is. It isn't a matter of seeing who voted away from a wolf and voting for them. It's about taking it in context.

Post #832
Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
I let font get under my skin and I wasn't sold on the idea that he knew that he was attacked. He was a safe target and I fully expected to see a wolf result which would have meant font was wolf two. Took a hero shot and failed miserably. I am fine with facing my punishment. I have been useless anyway.

So first there is the kill of Martin. I know I'm on shaky ground here as I was convinced Martin was bad as well. But even then I stated that the correct action was to kill Font as that would prove Martin's allegiance. Killing Martin wouldn't if he flipped village. Anyway so Eagle and Font have another of their bust ups and Eagle is pissed off with Fonti so he shoots - Martin? Eagle says that he shot Martin because it was the safe option. Firstly just psychologically I doubt that. If Eagle thought Font was a wolf he'd shoot her. And then there's this.

Posted 6:40 on the day in question post #710.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
Phone post. Keeping it quick as this just hit me. Font seems to be claiming hunter but is she was wouldn't Vaimes have been killed when he attacked her? Or have I misread that?

Now the question is - did he put in the kill order before or after this post. If he put it in before why the hell was he bothering to post. According to his own story he was sure that Martin was bad. Surely he didn't need a case. He could smugly wait and when Martin turned up bad he could be all "Ha! In your face Fonti". If the order came afterwards then why didn't he shoot Fonti? If he's village and Fonti says she's a hunter why in hell would he believe her. I certainly didn't. The evidence was that she was duke. So why not shoot her? Martin was the safer shot? I don't buy it. Village-Eagle thinks Fonti is a lying duke wolf and he puts a bullet in her. If I'm cunning I'd wait until Eagle was around and then ask him about the timing of his kill order. Can't be bothered though. I want to get all this out and then just leave it.

OK. I didn't think Eagle could be a wolf at the time because "Why would a wolf expose themselves" like that? I think the answer is that Eagle was telling the truth when he was taking a hero shot. But for the wolves. I won't say he wanted to be lynched but he, at least, expected to be lynched. Let's look at day one.

Eagle votes timmae and then both timmae and he are away for deadline. My guess is that timmae mentioned that he wasn't going to be around so they came up with a plan to improve the chances of timmae getting scanned. Eagle puts in an early vote. If it gets traction they rely on a village or the cultist pointing out that timmae isn't around. I hated that timmae wasn't around when Zinto was up for lynch because had he been there I would have voted for him. If that was the plan it worked to perfection. Someone did mention that timmae wasn't around and the seer did scan timmae. Result!

So back to day three. The wolves think Martin has an important role - he was defended so it must be true. So why not take him out and use Eagle as the sacrificial wolf. My bet is that both wolves vote for him - timmae does. Just to hammer home the point Eagle doesn't vote for himself. 1) Reverse pyschology - if someone doesn't vote to save themselves then they can't be a wolf. 2) If he's lynched Timmae and A.N.Other wolf come up smelling of roses. Particularly timmae who already has an Eagle vote on him from day one. Standard first-level interpretation of the voting will tell us that timmae, and A.N.Other wolf are village and the wolves are in among the Fonti voters.

Unfortunately Shoveler goes insane and dukes the lynch to timmae. God that must have been a shock for the wolves. But Font is left available for lynching because Eagle has chosen to shoot Martin instead of Font.

OK. That's pretty much the main gist. There are other anomalies that taken on their own don't amount to much and could just be the product of my vivid imagination. This from Friday.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
vote bug

Can't have an UTR wolf play us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
Are you claiming seer?

Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
No. Just claiming you have been UTR.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
Well, you claimed me as a wolf as well, that's slightly different than what you are claiming here..

Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
Voting for you because of my options for lynching I would rather vote for the UTR player so a UTR wolf doesn't win it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
Well, I can't really fault you for that as my strategy is probably just as terrible.

Am I the only one who finds the little dialogue somewhat, well, forced? I think this is a signal to the cultist to counter-claim. I mean seriously. I think Brit's claim was probably the weakest I've seen in a long time. I was fully expecting a counter-claim when I read - and I know which claim I would have trusted. In fact I think they might have thought that I'm the cultist and they were telling me to claim. But I admit that's pretty weak sauce.

But who is the cultist? If Eagle is a wolf then I expect it to be someone who did vote to save him on day three. The cultist won't know the plan - his main purpose is to save a wolf in a vote. That leaves Autumn, Cheeki and myself. Great cases that Autumn or me are the cultist. We both make cases for believing Eagle and lynching font. But as I said earlier I believe Autumn would counter Brit's claim and I know I would. The case for Brit being a cultist or a wolf faking almost writes itself. Brit was the one who emphasised that Timmae wasn't around on day one and his scan targets are, well, less than optimal. Shoveler? The guy who was already pretty much trusted? If I was the cultist or a wolf for that matter it would be easy to counter-claim painting Brit as the cultist protecting wolf-Autumn. Tell me you wouldn't have believed that? Unfortunately for the wolves, I believe the cultist was the inexperienced Cheeki.

Cheeki's vote is opposite Eagle on day three. Look at the voting on day one. Cheeki is going full out to protect Timmae. He comes off as a confused villager because he is on his own without wolf back-up but the gist of his voting looks to be saving timmae. Day two he moves his vote from Martin to Autumn to consolidate the two-horse race and then moves back to Martin to see him lynched. Day three he keeps his vote on fonti despite a surge for Eagle. Who has he voted so far toDay? Myself and, as soon as Autumn mentions Bug or Grover, he opts for Grover.

OK unfortunately if I'm right then it's pretty clear who the bodyguard it. But, to be honest, if I'm right then the wolves would have worked that out themselves by this stage. If I'm not right then I haven't revealed him but I still think they can work out who the bodyguard is, as they know who they are.

Well that's it for me. I know we should all discuss things. I can't put myself through that though. I've said my piece I want done with this.
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Old 04-27-2015, 02:42 AM   #1158
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My recommendation is

a) If we have the ammo clip someone shoots Eagle. If we have the sights the person who shoots is given those. If we don't have the mirror the person shooting should not be announced ahead.

If Eagle is village and has protection he should take it off so he can be shot. That will leave us with the chance to lynch someone, although it's dodgy ground there. The duking problem actually isn't a problem if we shoot Eagle. Either one wolf is a hunter, in which case the wolves can't duke to a hunter. Or both wolves are dukes and then he has to be able to correctly pick the hunter. If we have the camo suit then the hunter should reveal and we'll give him the suit so the duke can't hit him. Or we use the bullhorn.

If Eagle turns up wolf then we can "No Lynch" if we're allowed. The same applies - either the wolf is a hunter and can't duke or he's a duke and he has to correctly pick out the hunter on our team. This gives Brit an extra scan - he can scan me if he wants or, preferably, Bug. Whatever. If we can't no lynch then you decide who we should lynch. I would argue Bug.

b) If we don't have the ammo clip then I recommend we lynch Eagle. Same procedure with the other hunter getting the camo suit - then the wolves can't duke without killing themselves. Brit gets a scan and we should be alright if Eagle is a wolf. If he isn't we probably lose.

If you think I'm a wolf and want to lynch me then I ask you to daykill me if you're able. I'm a duke, if there's a villager hunter he can shoot me. We're still on dodgy ground but I think there's still a shot if we don't lynch the brutal first. Same procedure - give the village hunter the camo suit - use the bullhorn if you have it. I'll admit that there are scenarios where the wolves will win if you daykill me (as a wolf) and then lynch. I think no lynch will work though. If I'm brutal then the wolves might win but I think they would have to make the nightkill hit and have a daykill. If you think that's my plan then you will just have to lynch me. I really don't want to argue too much about it. If you think I'm the brutal wolf then lynch me.

That's my recommendation. My action will be to vote whomever Britrock and Shoveler decide. As should everyone else after discussion. In an end game the absolutely cleared make the decisions. I am basically taking the same standpoint as yesterDay but, hopefully, a bit more eloquently and rationally.

OK. Now I've said my piece. I shall try to muster the energy to discuss this but I'm probably going to avoid being on too much as it's not good for my health. Without trying to sound too melodramatic this will be my last game for a short or long time.
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Old 04-27-2015, 04:06 AM   #1159
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I went back looking to see cases against Grover, Bug and Cheeki and found this.

Posts #878 and #879
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
I could go along with your area sons but I want to hear more explanation from EF. Maybe he'd just trying to kill off Dukes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grover View Post
You want to hear more from EF on this, but why are you giving him a potential explanation in the process?

I mostly got hung up over what area sons were. But in the light of my theory it's pretty interesting.
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Old 04-27-2015, 04:08 AM   #1160
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Of course reading back now it starts to look more like this could all be the possible product of my fantasy that my mind turns into a sure thing. For starters, even if Eagle is a wolf then Cheeki might be the other wolf, playing against the Eagle anti-vote analysis type. Or Grover could be.

It's difficult to read Bug - UTR player is Under The Radar! but I'll look at Grover, Cheeki and Bug and see if anything sticks out other than what I already have mentioned.
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Old 04-27-2015, 06:28 AM   #1161
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I have already said that the hunter should shoot me but the problem is that gives the win to the wolves, unless the hunter is a wolf. The person that I just sent the camo to can confirm.
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Old 04-27-2015, 06:34 AM   #1162
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Actually. May not want confirmation until after the shot is taken. Just in case the hunter is a wolf. Kind of puts us in chicken or egg scenario, unfortunately.
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Old 04-27-2015, 07:33 AM   #1163
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Hey guys. Was just sent on a delivery to Mass for work. Three hit trip each way. Should be back by three. Apologies for being useless today
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Old 04-27-2015, 07:34 AM   #1164
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Eaglefan has the vest, do not shoot him
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:00 AM   #1165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoveler View Post
Eaglefan has the vest, do not shoot him

How do we know that
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:25 AM   #1166
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You'll have to trust me on that
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:29 AM   #1167
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Is there a mechanic that dictates how one would know about items being used?

Unless there is more than one, you are lying.
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:29 AM   #1168
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Wait until we know that we have the ammo clip before discussing who has what sort of protection. The hunter shouldn't shoot anyone before everything is discussed.
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:35 AM   #1169
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The problem with Cheeki is that he is new. I think we know his play-style as a villager but he can probably imitate that as a wolf. There is his voting on day one which looks very pro-timmae. After that he seems to flip-flop a lot with his voting, following other people's lead. I think he did that as villager as well but it is kinda wolfy.
Post #293
Quote:
Originally Posted by cheekimonk View Post
I think timmae is keeping a lower profile, but that would be townread to me as he was all over this board when he was wolf in WoT (all over with his LIES). Like others, would like to hear more from Vaimes and I didn't expect my vote to stay where it was anyway:
unvote fontisian
vote Vaimes
Very stout defence of timmae day one. Definitely something you would see someone on the same team Ė particularly an inexperienced player.
There is a lot of general responses to others nudging towards there being a wolf in the Vaimes/Fonti/Martin mess. I canít really say much about that as I was probably pushing the whole thing a lot myself. Itís just that Cheeki always seems to be playing off of what others say. In fact me in a lot of cases he was responding to me.
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I think I lean to all 3 being involved somehow. Vaimes doesn't seem the type to be baited.
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Wow. I mean, based on all that there is no way Vaimes knew font was a duke unless they were in contact.

But itís very easy to go through posts and find stuff like this. Iím sure you can do the same thing with me. Itís cheekiís play style (at the moment) to react to what other people are saying.

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Where did I say I don't want to lynch him? I have to be argued off you first and that will involve watching the analysis from people much more adept at this than me.

Thinks Eagle is dodgy but is going to vote fonti anyway.

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I think I'm staying where I am. I could go with EF, but haven't been convinced to come off font, either. The duke/hunter analysis above makes me think there's going to be a duke today in any case.

So there we are. EF is bad but Font is badder.

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Autumn leans much more town than she did which, following convos, puts me on Narc (I've had them pegged as non-aligned since D2). Still wary of EF and font.
vote Narc

So nothing has happened to change what he thinks about font or EF but suddenly he votes for me?

Yeah I can see Cheeki being a baddy. The evidence is particularly harsh if Eagle is bad. But how much is all that because of inexperience. My read from the first day has been that Cheeki is trying to hang with the very complicated rules. He's done better than me at that in a lot of ways.
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:37 AM   #1170
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Bug? UTR player is Under The Radar. His flurry of posting on Friday has finally seen him overtake JAG in number of posts. I realise he has real-life issues so I wouldnít imagine thatís a conscious decision to stay under the radar. It is what it is. Makes him difficult to read. Day one vote could be argued as a pro-Timmae vote but thatís a very long reach. I guess you could say that if my theory is right then he should have voted timmae but time issues might have meant that heís not in the loop at the time. If Eagle isnít wolf then thereís very little in the way of voting analysis to do on him. He voted Autumn over Martin day two but we know that was two non-wolves so that tells us nothing. Votes Eagle day three Ė if Eagle is village thatís village-village. So voting gives us nothing, and posts give us little. This is why UTR players are so hard to play with. No criticism intended - he has already stated that he wouldn't have joined if he had seen the deadline.
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:41 AM   #1171
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Hey guys. Was just sent on a delivery to Mass for work. Three hit trip each way. Should be back by three. Apologies for being useless today

Ok so paranoid prickle, prickle. He won't be back in time for us to decide if we want to/can use the daykill.

This is why I should have posted my piece and then scooted. I'm not going to be able to handle the tension of this.
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:43 AM   #1172
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Is there a mechanic that dictates how one would know about items being used?

Unless there is more than one, you are lying.

You're saying you already know where the vest is, and that Shoveler either had another one or is lying?
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:44 AM   #1173
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Yes
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:49 AM   #1174
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Well, I suppose it's possible there are multiples.

If not, could be that Shoveler is the world's bussiest wolf/cultist, and is pretending to give a vest to EF to protect a wolf EF? However, he would have to be afraid that the real vest owner would speak up, so that's a gamble. Could be an attempt to flush out the location of the vest for a wolf hunter, but seems a long shot.

Or, a wolf/cultist Bug pretends to have a vest in order to cast suspicion on Shoveler. This also seems a long shot, as it would be hard to convince anyone to lynch Shoveler, and Bug wasn't under any imminent threat.

Could there be more than one vest? That also seems a stretch but maybe less of one.
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:51 AM   #1175
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Chief - Is there more than one of an item?
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:56 AM   #1176
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On my phone so maybe I misstated the item. Eagle has the camo dealy, so he is immune to shooting or duking.
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Old 04-27-2015, 08:56 AM   #1177
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Well, I suppose it's possible there are multiples.

If not, could be that Shoveler is the world's bussiest wolf/cultist, and is pretending to give a vest to EF to protect a wolf EF? However, he would have to be afraid that the real vest owner would speak up, so that's a gamble. Could be an attempt to flush out the location of the vest for a wolf hunter, but seems a long shot.

Or, a wolf/cultist Bug pretends to have a vest in order to cast suspicion on Shoveler. This also seems a long shot, as it would be hard to convince anyone to lynch Shoveler, and Bug wasn't under any imminent threat.

Could there be more than one vest? That also seems a stretch but maybe less of one.

Well, EF has been suspicious of me from the beginning..
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Old 04-27-2015, 09:01 AM   #1178
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On my phone so maybe I misstated the item. Eagle has the camo dealy, so he is immune to shooting or duking.

When did you pass it?
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Old 04-27-2015, 09:05 AM   #1179
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Eagle can elect to take off the camo suit. He just has to mail Chief that he's taking it off.
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Old 04-27-2015, 09:06 AM   #1180
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Better yet he can give it to someone else.
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Old 04-27-2015, 09:08 AM   #1181
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You're saying you already know where the vest is, and that Shoveler either had another one or is lying?

If Shoveler is lying then Britrock was lying about being a seer. Shoveler can't be the cultist because he duked a lynch.

I suspect this is supposed to be your cue Cheeki.

Last edited by Narcizo : 04-27-2015 at 09:13 AM. Reason: Extra unwanted quote added into the post
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Old 04-27-2015, 09:13 AM   #1182
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I've just read that Stuttering Sam negates the effect of all other dukes. So if all dukes duke the lynch today it can't be duked. Can't believe I went through all the rigamorale thinking about the camo suit when we just needed to all duke.
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Old 04-27-2015, 09:14 AM   #1183
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But who is the cultist? If Eagle is a wolf then I expect it to be someone who did vote to save him on day three. The cultist won't know the plan - his main purpose is to save a wolf in a vote. That leaves Autumn, Cheeki and myself. Great cases that Autumn or me are the cultist... Unfortunately for the wolves, I believe the cultist was the inexperienced Cheeki.

Your case on EF is convincing, but I've said twice that I'm vanilla village Duke. I'm not the cultist which, if your analysis is right (honestly, I think you're providing WAY too much info to be a wolf, so I don't think you're being intentionally misleading), the cultist is you or Autumn.
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Old 04-27-2015, 09:26 AM   #1184
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DOLA, if I'm lynched I don't know if I'm duking. With so many Dukes remaining and a Hunter with camo (presumably), it has the potential to be game over for us. With this ruleset I don't know if it's smart to admit that, but at endgame I'd rather lose giving all info than not (that said, it's the first time I've made it to endgame, so...).
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Old 04-27-2015, 09:50 AM   #1185
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I suspect this is supposed to be your cue Cheeki.

I apologise for this comment. Its disrespectful and makes me look a bit of a dick. Nerves.

We should look into Bug's claim but don't let it interfere with you analysis.

On a different note I'm afraid that I've posted too much info that might help the wolves. I wanted to try to prove that I'm village and I might have gone too far. If we lose because of that I apologise.
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Old 04-27-2015, 09:52 AM   #1186
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I sent it to someone. Said that earlier, though I didn't specify what it was.

Don't think it is wise to say who i sent it to, or for that person to come forward.
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Old 04-27-2015, 10:08 AM   #1187
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I apologise for this comment. Its disrespectful and makes me look a bit of a dick. Nerves.

We should look into Bug's claim but don't let it interfere with you analysis.

On a different note I'm afraid that I've posted too much info that might help the wolves. I wanted to try to prove that I'm village and I might have gone too far. If we lose because of that I apologise.

No worries! I'm enjoying this endgame tension!
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Old 04-27-2015, 10:08 AM   #1188
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Good morning folks!

I hope you all had a pleasant weekend. I hope you all understand I did very little checking in on this. But I am here now and ready to get back into it.

I will check in on my PMs and then do a vote tally.
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Old 04-27-2015, 10:14 AM   #1189
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I am now 100% certain EF is a wolf.

I sent him the camo vest/suit thingy when we were lynching Font. In that event there were two hunters that had shot and were the easy outs for a wolf duke. The idea here was that we lynch font, removing one out, and hopefully pulling a wolf. Then if we find a duke wolf, they will most likely duke to EF and be blocked.

He would not pass that item if he was town. He probably hasn't passed it to be perfectly honest, if he has it's to his wolf buddy.

I still think we need to lynch the other wolf, and come back for hunter!wolf!EF..
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Old 04-27-2015, 10:42 AM   #1190
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I would certainly pass it. It does no good for a vanilla and to be honest, shooting me wins the game for the wolves, unless the remaining hunter is a wolf.

I have a list of cleared players to pass it to. Makes sense to pass it.
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Old 04-27-2015, 10:56 AM   #1191
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Chief - Is there more than one of an item?

No.
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Old 04-27-2015, 11:29 AM   #1192
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I still think we need to lynch the other wolf, and come back for hunter!wolf!EF..

So, any suggestions here?
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:05 PM   #1193
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I would certainly pass it. It does no good for a vanilla and to be honest, shooting me wins the game for the wolves, unless the remaining hunter is a wolf.

I have a list of cleared players to pass it to. Makes sense to pass it.

This makes no sense.

You knew that after shooting you were revealed as a hunter, and with font getting lynched you would be the easy out for a wolf duke. I passed you an item that prevents this. And you expect me to buy this explanation?
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:05 PM   #1194
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So, as I stated in my reasoning this weekend, I agree with the UTR reasoning. We have the obvious in MrBug, but I also think Grover has been conspicuously absent from the real heart of any debates. With just a few hours left, do we have any traction on either of these (or neither)?
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:08 PM   #1195
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In the wake of the lynching of Fontisian and the death of Raven, the village has reached a level of quiet despair.

They almost fear the coming lynch, convinced that, even though it is their only proven method to find the oil profiteers, that they will fail and lynch yet another innocent villager.

The only comfort comes from britrock88, who reveals to the village that he has been keeping an eye on things at night, and that he can definitively clear Autumn and Shoveler (among the living villagers). While not everyone accepts his revelation with fervor, it seems to lift the village's spirits some. At least there is one of us is able to give us a fighting chance, they think.

It turns from midday to midafternoon and the lynch draws nigh. The small town is busy with people about their daily chores, and maybe working a little harder at those, so as to not get stuck pondering the dilemma before them.

Autumn is carrying two buckets of water in his hands, and is apparently struggling to carry them back to his cabin. Some villagers wander over to help, among them britrock88.

Autumn gratefully accepts their help and offers a bucket to britrock. britrock hands fall down as he supports the full weight of the bucket and he starts to turn toward Autumn's home.

In a swift motion, Autumn reaches into the other bucket and pulls out an object. It's a handgun! He drops the bucket as he turns the gun barrel toward britrock. Before anyone can react, he fires!

At that close range, there is no possibility of missing. Autumn's bullet slams into the side of britrock's head and blasts out the other side, spraying blood and brains for several feet. britrock falls away from Autumn, dead instantly.

There is shock--and then outrage. This is more than they can take! The villagers jump to grab Autumn, preparing to take him to the gator pits, the lynch time to be damned.

"Wait! You fools, wait!" Autumn says. 'britrock was a traitor!"

They pay little attention to him as they drag him towards the water.

"Hold up!" a call comes from britrock's body. A villager crouches beside the fallen man, holding a blood splattered book. The lynch mob pauses.

"This is a book on getting rich quick by finding oil!" the villager exclaims.

"I told you!" Autumn says, wrestling his arms free from his would be vigilante killers. "britrock was always ready to betray this village for oil money!"

AUTUMN, a Hunter, has shot and killed BRITROCK88!! Autumn's shot is now used.

BRITROCK88 was a Duke with no role, and he was a Villager. But he was also the CULTIST!!
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:08 PM   #1196
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This makes no sense.

You knew that after shooting you were revealed as a hunter, and with font getting lynched you would be the easy out for a wolf duke. I passed you an item that prevents this. And you expect me to buy this explanation?

I didn't buy it either, but I don't expect anyone will so why give him a chance to muddy the waters?
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:11 PM   #1197
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In the wake of the lynching of Fontisian and the death of Raven, the village has reached a level of quiet despair.

They almost fear the coming lynch, convinced that, even though it is their only proven method to find the oil profiteers, that they will fail and lynch yet another innocent villager.

The only comfort comes from britrock88, who reveals to the village that he has been keeping an eye on things at night, and that he can definitively clear Autumn and Shoveler (among the living villagers). While not everyone accepts his revelation with fervor, it seems to lift the village's spirits some. At least there is one of us is able to give us a fighting chance, they think.

It turns from midday to midafternoon and the lynch draws nigh. The small town is busy with people about their daily chores, and maybe working a little harder at those, so as to not get stuck pondering the dilemma before them.

Autumn is carrying two buckets of water in his hands, and is apparently struggling to carry them back to his cabin. Some villagers wander over to help, among them britrock88.

Autumn gratefully accepts their help and offers a bucket to britrock. britrock hands fall down as he supports the full weight of the bucket and he starts to turn toward Autumn's home.

In a swift motion, Autumn reaches into the other bucket and pulls out an object. It's a handgun! He drops the bucket as he turns the gun barrel toward britrock. Before anyone can react, he fires!

At that close range, there is no possibility of missing. Autumn's bullet slams into the side of britrock's head and blasts out the other side, spraying blood and brains for several feet. britrock falls away from Autumn, dead instantly.

There is shock--and then outrage. This is more than they can take! The villagers jump to grab Autumn, preparing to take him to the gator pits, the lynch time to be damned.

"Wait! You fools, wait!" Autumn says. 'britrock was a traitor!"

They pay little attention to him as they drag him towards the water.

"Hold up!" a call comes from britrock's body. A villager crouches beside the fallen man, holding a blood splattered book. The lynch mob pauses.

"This is a book on getting rich quick by finding oil!" the villager exclaims.

"I told you!" Autumn says, wrestling his arms free from his would be vigilante killers. "britrock was always ready to betray this village for oil money!"

AUTUMN, a Hunter, has shot and killed BRITROCK88!! Autumn's shot is now used.

BRITROCK88 was a Duke with no role, and he was a Villager. But he was also the CULTIST!!

Autumn you bastard! All fucking weekend I've been wondering about this.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:12 PM   #1198
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Hmm...so Britt rock wasn't the seer..
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:15 PM   #1199
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Hmm...so Britt rock wasn't the seer..

Then why the hell was there no counter-claim?

Also, this...

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I'm as miffed as you are at this point. I'd have to say Narc and EF are probably the best two targets left...
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:16 PM   #1200
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I feel better about my Grover vote now, but I could go Bug, too.
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