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Old 04-27-2015, 12:16 PM   #1201
Autumn
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Sorry, Narc, I felt bad to keep you spinning your wheels like that, but I wanted to let the wolves talk as much as possible before making any move.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:18 PM   #1202
Narcizo
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So, let me guess, JAG, Me, Cheeki, Britrock?
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:18 PM   #1203
Autumn
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Here is the status. I am the real seer. My scans are below. It's been tough going, and I don't have a lot. But with the cultist and cunning dead we can now be absolutely sure about Narcizo and Cheekimonk, which will help a lot.

N1 - JAG (clear)
N2 - Narcizo (clear)
N3 - Timmae (wolf)
N4 - cheekimonk (clear)
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:19 PM   #1204
Autumn
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If a villager has the bullhorn, they should use it. If a villager has the camo suit and can pass it to me, they can. And if the bodyguard is paying attention, protect me. With one more scan we should be able to win this.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:19 PM   #1205
Narcizo
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JAG, Me, Brit/Cheeki, Eagle?
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:20 PM   #1206
Narcizo
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I'm thinking Shoveler, Eagle Autumn.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:21 PM   #1207
cheekimonk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
JAG, Me, Brit/Cheeki, Eagle?

Huh?
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:23 PM   #1208
Narcizo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
If a villager has the bullhorn, they should use it. If a villager has the camo suit and can pass it to me, they can. And if the bodyguard is paying attention, protect me. With one more scan we should be able to win this.

We still need to know if they've got the ammo clip. I have to rethink the numbers but I think we may still need a lynch today.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:24 PM   #1209
Narcizo
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So, let me guess, JAG, Me, Cheeki, Britrock?

Three for four. Not so bad.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:24 PM   #1210
cheekimonk
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I'm thinking Shoveler, Eagle Autumn.

Shoveler duked to timmae D3
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:24 PM   #1211
Autumn
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cheeki - GOOD
narcizo - GOOD
shoveler - Good
Autumn - Good
eagle fan - ?
mrbug - ?
grover - ?

This is the situation. So we lynch from those three today. If there are two wolves left we have good odds there. Unfortunately the brutal is going to be a problem. I was hoping I might get lucky and Brit would be the brutal, but no luck there. At least his death clears some people, and avoids any conversion. I considered chancing not shooting and so hoping to get another scan but I figured that was pushing my luck too far. Wolves would have gone after Brit tonight, not knowing he was the cultist, and though hopefully the bodyguard would have protected him, you never know and you guys would have hated me if I had messed that up.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:25 PM   #1212
Autumn
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We still need to know if they've got the ammo clip. I have to rethink the numbers but I think we may still need a lynch today.

Yes, I'm sorry, we do need a lynch, I was hoping to avoid a duking, but I forgot the bullhorn does a no lynch?
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:25 PM   #1213
Autumn
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Well, if the wolves duke today, they'll reveal one of them. The numbers are tight so it may be worth it to them. . By tomorrow, for sure they will be able to just duke it and win if we don't get one today I think.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:26 PM   #1214
Narcizo
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Britrock needed to signal to the wolves that he wasn't the real seer. Only way to do that was "clear" Shoveler. Never, ever bought that scan. Might be a double bluff though.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:27 PM   #1215
Autumn
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But I figured at this point if they duke it to me, that's as good as getting a positive scan, so it's worth it. Either way we'll know one or two of the wolves by tomorrow. A lot depends on our vote today, items, and duking.

Now, thoughts on most likely wolf candidate.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:27 PM   #1216
cheekimonk
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Britrock needed to signal to the wolves that he wasn't the real seer. Only way to do that was "clear" Shoveler. Never, ever bought that scan. Might be a double bluff though.

A double-bluff involving Shoveler? Again, Shoveler duked to timmae on D3...
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:28 PM   #1217
Narcizo
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OK scratch that Shoveler and Bug.

We've got the brutal to worry about.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:28 PM   #1218
Autumn
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Britrock needed to signal to the wolves that he wasn't the real seer. Only way to do that was "clear" Shoveler. Never, ever bought that scan. Might be a double bluff though.

Brit had to figure he had a 50% chance of being lynched, so you have to figure his comments were made very carefully. Suggesting you and EF as next lynch could be a case of splitting his odds, one villager and one wolf, so it definitely leaves me wondering about EF.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:29 PM   #1219
cheekimonk
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Brit had to figure he had a 50% chance of being lynched, so you have to figure his comments were made very carefully. Suggesting you and EF as next lynch could be a case of splitting his odds, one villager and one wolf, so it definitely leaves me wondering about EF.

Problem is if Shoveler passed EF the camo, he is absolutely lying about passing it to someone else.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:30 PM   #1220
Narcizo
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A double-bluff involving Shoveler? Again, Shoveler duked to timmae on D3...

Can't buy much more trust than that.

Seriously, he duked to someone he didn't know?

Dunno. I think we have to find the other one. Bodyguard should reveal asap so we can count them out. Please don't let it be cheeki.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:31 PM   #1221
cheekimonk
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I'm REALLY liking my Grover vote now. Bug would still work. Both are likely Dukes and either will Duke a lynch.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:31 PM   #1222
Autumn
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Problem is if Shoveler passed EF the camo, he is absolutely lying about passing it to someone else.

How so?
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:31 PM   #1223
Chief Rum
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Day Five Vote Tally (as of Post #1218)


EagleFan (1)-- Autumn (1127)
MrBug708 (1)-- EagleFan (1134)
Grover (1)-- cheekimonk (1147)


Yet To Vote: Grover, Shoveler, Narcizo, MrBug708

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Old 04-27-2015, 12:32 PM   #1224
Narcizo
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OK. Yeah, scratch Shoveler that's probably just my over-active fantasy.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:32 PM   #1225
Autumn
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Can't buy much more trust than that.

Seriously, he duked to someone he didn't know?

Dunno. I think we have to find the other one. Bodyguard should reveal asap so we can count them out. Please don't let it be cheeki.

I think if bodyguard is anyone currently cleared they shouldn't reveal. If one of the three wants to claim bodyguard, that's great, then a counterclaim would help. But otherwise, no reason, they're already cleared.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:33 PM   #1226
cheekimonk
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How so?

There's not a doubt in my head that EF is wolf. He may have passed that camo to another wolf, but anything he says can't be trusted.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:34 PM   #1227
Autumn
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So if someone can pass me the camo vest and keep me alive through a duking, that can get us a scan tonight, barring a brutal. Apart from that I think we have to assume I will get duked, giving us a sure ID of one wolf, or brutaled, meaning we simply picked right.

I think at this point EF has to reveal who he passed the camo to. If I don't get the vest, then one of those two people is bad, we can safely say.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:35 PM   #1228
Narcizo
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All villagers need to pass their items to Autumn for the time being. We need to know what we have to work with.

Every villager duking ought to solve that.

D,you know what. I still like my Bug & Eagle work. There's not actually anything that discounts that right?
I got the feeling that Bug was trying to get himself lynched today which would suggest he's the brutal.

You can book it that Grover is the bodyguard as well.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:36 PM   #1229
Narcizo
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OOps-
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:38 PM   #1230
Autumn
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I am not sure between the three of them. I am voting EF in part just because if he's a wolf and we let him get away with shooting one of us, I would feel really dumb.

I had hoped someone would give a big hint this weekend. Now that we know Brit was the cultist, we know that the wolves wouldn't have known if he was the seer or not. But voted EF, which would be a crazy bold move at that point if they're both wolves, so I tend to assume they are on separate teams. So first level suggestion would be vote one of them and then we'll know either way.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:39 PM   #1231
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At this point I'm fairly willing to ignore the idea that Shoveler could be bad. He's not cleared, no, but I think we're too close to be able to afford going down that path.

So it has to be Bug, Grover or EF right now. All info on the table.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:41 PM   #1232
Narcizo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
STUTTERING SAM-- You are Sam, and you have a stutter that is so bad, you cannot speak well enough to use the Duke ability. But you do not know this. To your knowledge, you will appear to be a regular Duke. Your attempt to duke will nullify all other dukings that day, and the original lynch target will still be lynched.

If we don't have the camo suit or bullhorn and we don't have the ammo clip then we're in a bad way I suspect.

I'm pretty sure about Eagle being a wolf fwiw.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:43 PM   #1233
Narcizo
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If nothing else it makes it 2 duke baddies and 2 hunter baddies.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:43 PM   #1234
Shoveler
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Bullhorn-- This item stops any Duking if you're not Duking, and allows your Duking to be the one which happens if you are. One time use.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:46 PM   #1235
Narcizo
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My guess is Eagle passed the suit to Britrock to buy trust. Which means it's been randomed to someone. Cheeki if you have got it give it to Autumn.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:46 PM   #1236
Shoveler
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Well good job autumn..

Yes EF has got to be a wolf, I think we figure out if the other wolf is bug or grover.. and use the bullhorn tonight..

Hopefully we have that.

Lynch EF tomorrow, he cant duke.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:47 PM   #1237
Narcizo
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Absolutely Everything I've posted today still holds true in the New World Order.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:48 PM   #1238
Narcizo
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My guess is Eagle passed the suit to Britrock to buy trust. Which means it's been randomed to someone. Cheeki if you have got it give it to Autumn.

Actually that can't be true. If he had you wouldn't have shot him. Unless ....
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:49 PM   #1239
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Sorry Autumn I've got to go, for most of the time left.

Vote Eagle

I'll be back.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:50 PM   #1240
Autumn
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Well good job autumn..

Yes EF has got to be a wolf, I think we figure out if the other wolf is bug or grover.. and use the bullhorn tonight..

Hopefully we have that.

Lynch EF tomorrow, he cant duke.

Well, if we lynch EF today (assumign he's bad) we'll either get him or one of the others will duke, in which case we'll know which one is bad, and their duke will be gone tomorrow.

If we vote Grover or Bug today, if we have the right one they'll duke it to me, and if we have the wrong one they may duke it anyway or let us mislynch. I'm not sure I see the advantage to doing them first.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:52 PM   #1241
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I got your back autumn. Don't worry
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:52 PM   #1242
Shoveler
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Well, if we lynch EF today (assumign he's bad) we'll either get him or one of the others will duke, in which case we'll know which one is bad, and their duke will be gone tomorrow.

If we vote Grover or Bug today, if we have the right one they'll duke it to me, and if we have the wrong one they may duke it anyway or let us mislynch. I'm not sure I see the advantage to doing them first.

let me run some numbers.. you do the same.. see what we come up with for mislynch scenarios today.. and whether we can win without the BG if we end up wrong today.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:52 PM   #1243
Autumn
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I guess it makes more sense to me to lynch EF today. He can't duke out of it, and he can't be killed by the ammo clip. If a duke wolf wants to reveal himself saving EF, good for us. And if a villager has the ammo clip they can possibly take out a wolf tomorrow and save us.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:54 PM   #1244
Narcizo
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Shoveler makes a good point about Eagle not being able to duke. But I don't like it. If we have the bull horn we can use that one night and do the all the dukes duke thing tomorrow. Unless Stuttering Sam gets killed in the interim.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:55 PM   #1245
Narcizo
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My spider sense is tingling about Shoveler, dude.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:55 PM   #1246
Autumn
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If a villager has the ammo clip they should remain silent about it. The one way this could go sideways is if the wolves kill you and get a hold of that.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:56 PM   #1247
Shoveler
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I think the problem is that if they duke, they duke to autumn and we dont have protection against that.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:56 PM   #1248
Narcizo
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If we lynch the brutal I'm really going to hate picking between Shoveler and Bug. I know the right play will be Bug but it's going to be another Jackal vs Rum scenario.
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Old 04-27-2015, 12:59 PM   #1249
Narcizo
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If we all duke then Stuttering Sam will nullify all dukings causing the original one to get got.

Chief - can we all duke to the actual lynch candidate?
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Old 04-27-2015, 01:00 PM   #1250
Shoveler
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Terrible idea..

Every duke dies in that situation.. and what if the duke wolf is stuttering sam?
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