Election Guesstimates (FOFC Game)

[SirFozzie]

Part 1: Multiple Choice

How it works: You will pick one option for each vote. If it's on the nose, you get 10 points. For each step away, you take away 4 points (so, for example, if you choose option 2, and it turns out to be option 4, you still gain 2 points). This DOES mean your points can go into the negative. (say you chose option 2, and it turned out to be option 6, you're four steps away, so 10-16=-6)

How many Electoral Votes ABOVE the 270 needed to win will the winner get?

1 Trump +100 (370+)
2. Trump 50-100 (320-369)
3. Trump 25-49 (295-319)
4. Trump 0-24 (270-294)
5. Clinton 0-24 (270-294)
6. Clinton 25-49 (295-319)
7. Clinton 50-100 (320-369)
8. Clinton +100 (370+)

What will be the National POPULAR VOTE Percentage difference? (rounded to nearest number)
1. Trump +5% or greater
2. Trump +4%
3. Trump +3%
4. Trump +2%
5. Trump +1%
6. Within 1% of each other
7. Clinton +1
8. Clinton +2
9. Clinton +3
10. Clinton +4
11. Clinton +5 or greater

The election will be first called at: (Eastern Time zone)
1. Before 8 PM
2. Between 8-9 PM
3. 9-10 PM
4. 10-11 PM
5. 11 PM-Midnight
6. Midnight-3 AM
7. 3AM-6AM
8. Past 6 AM


Part 2: Yes/No.

(Correct answers worth 5, incorrect answers worth -5)

A) Will Hillary Clinton win Florida?
B) Will Clinton win Nevada?
C) Will Trump win Ohio?
D) Will Trump Win Arizona?
E) Will Clinton win, or lose by less than 5%, Texas?
E) Will the Democratic Party control the Senate directly? (51 seats or more, counting independents caucusing with them as part of the D)
F) Will the losing candidate make a concession speech within two hours of the race being called?
G) Will the Democratic Party control 208 seats or more in the House? (Meaning a swing of 15 seats or more)
H) Will Evan McMullin receive more votes in Utah than Donald Trump?

[SirFozzie]

Other questions I thought about adding:

A) First major network to call election (NBC/ABC vs CBS/Fox)
B) Percentage of votes, nationally to third party candidates

I also thought about putting in an over/under on number of events of violence at polling places, but that's rather um.. yeah, ghoulish)

[CrescentMoonie]

How many Electoral Votes ABOVE the 270 needed to win will the winner get?

1 Trump +100 (370+)
2. Trump 50-100 (320-369)
3. Trump 25-49 (295-319)
4. Trump 0-24 (270-294)
5. Clinton 0-24 (270-294)
6. Clinton 25-49 (295-319)
7. Clinton 50-100 (320-369)
8. Clinton +100 (370+)

What will be the National POPULAR VOTE Percentage difference? (rounded to nearest number)
1. Trump +5% or greater
2. Trump +4%
3. Trump +3%
4. Trump +2%
5. Trump +1%
6. Within 1% of each other
7. Clinton +1
8. Clinton +2
9. Clinton +3
10. Clinton +4
11. Clinton +5 or greater

The election will be first called at: (Eastern Time zone)
1. Before 8 PM
2. Between 8-9 PM
3. 9-10 PM
4. 10-11 PM
5. 11 PM-Midnight
6. Midnight-3 AM
7. 3AM-6AM
8. Past 6 AM


Part 2: Yes/No.

(Correct answers worth 5, incorrect answers worth -5)

A) Will Hillary Clinton win Florida? YES
B) Will Clinton win Nevada? NO
C) Will Trump win Ohio? NO
D) Will Trump Win Arizona? YES
E) Will Clinton win, or lose by less than 5%, Texas? YES
E) Will the Democratic Party control the Senate directly? (51 seats or more, counting independents caucusing with them as part of the D) NO
F) Will the losing candidate make a concession speech within two hours of the race being called? NO
G) Will the Democratic Party control 208 seats or more in the House? (Meaning a swing of 15 seats or more) NO
H) Will Evan McMullin receive more votes in Utah than Donald Trump? YES

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Part 1: Multiple Choice

How it works: You will pick one option for each vote. If it's on the nose, you get 10 points. For each step away, you take away 4 points (so, for example, if you choose option 2, and it turns out to be option 4, you still gain 2 points). This DOES mean your points can go into the negative. (say you chose option 2, and it turned out to be option 6, you're four steps away, so 10-16=-6)

this is goofier than electoral math. bring it on.

How many Electoral Votes ABOVE the 270 needed to win will the winner get?

1 Trump +100 (370+)
2. Trump 50-100 (320-369)
3. Trump 25-49 (295-319)
4. Trump 0-24 (270-294)
5. Clinton 0-24 (270-294)
6. Clinton 25-49 (295-319)
7. Clinton 50-100 (320-369)
8. Clinton +100 (370+)

Clinton 50-100

What will be the National POPULAR VOTE Percentage difference? (rounded to nearest number)
1. Trump +5% or greater
2. Trump +4%
3. Trump +3%
4. Trump +2%
5. Trump +1%
6. Within 1% of each other
7. Clinton +1
8. Clinton +2
9. Clinton +3
10. Clinton +4
11. Clinton +5 or greater

Clinton +5 (or greater)

The election will be first called at: (Eastern Time zone)
1. Before 8 PM
2. Between 8-9 PM
3. 9-10 PM
4. 10-11 PM
5. 11 PM-Midnight
6. Midnight-3 AM
7. 3AM-6AM
8. Past 6 AM

11 PM-Midnight Eastern

Spoiler

I expect this one to get called more or less the second California's polls close.

That said, three possibilities which could cause an earlier call:

1) If Clinton wins OH AND either Texas or Georgia flip (both of which close at 9 Eastern) in resoundingly convincing fashion (the rout is bad enough for the networks to not be gun-shy in making either/both calls), the election could get called for Clinton in the 9 o'clock hour, Eastern.

2) Iowa's polls are open 'til like 11 eastern, so I don't expect it to matter in terms of a 'call' unless exit polls are overwhelming in one direction or another. Missouri, though? Missouri closes at 9 Eastern. Like Texas/Georgia, an Ohio win AND a Missouri flip would get the job done by the 9 o'clock hour if it gets called for Clinton.

3) Trump wins FL/PA/OH. If he's doing well enough to pull that off on election night, he's *probably* not watching Clinton flip Missouri and Arizona. And as long as Clinton doesn't flip Arizona or Missouri, Utah could determine whether McMullin throws it to the House, Clinton wins the state with like 30% of the vote, or Trump wins. Utah closes at 10 Eastern, so that scenario still tells us what's going to happen earlier than California's polls closing. However, I consider this one a longshot, and Trump winning NC also (rendering Utah irrelevant) an even longer shot.

Part 2: Yes/No.

(Correct answers worth 5, incorrect answers worth -5)

A) Will Hillary Clinton win Florida? YES
B) Will Clinton win Nevada? YES
C) Will Trump win Ohio? NO
D) Will Trump Win Arizona? NO
E) Will Clinton win, or lose by less than 5%, Texas? NO*
F) Will the Democratic Party control the Senate directly? (51 seats or more, counting independents caucusing with them as part of the D) YES
G) Will the losing candidate make a concession speech within two hours of the race being called? NO
H) Will the Democratic Party control 208 seats or more in the House? (Meaning a swing of 15 seats or more) YES
I) Will Evan McMullin receive more votes in Utah than Donald Trump? YES

Spoiler

Couple thoughts:

1) I think the Democrats need a fair bit to go right in order to take the Senate. They're currently favored in enough races to get there, but they need six pickups if they lose Nevada, or five otherwise. I feel like WI and IL are good bets, NH and IN above-average pickup opportunities, and that they're at least a coin-flip or better in NV, PA, and MO. If they take the first four, they need either to hold NV or to flip PA+MO to take control of the Senate regardless of who wins the Presidency; if Bayh wins in Indiana, I can see Democratic turnout being strong enough for Kander to win Missouri even if Clinton loses both states.

2) I think Democrats will erode the GOP's margin in the House (the GOP's advantage there is historically large and probably due for some pullback), but unless there's one more major Trumpshell waiting to land, I don't think they've got the horses to take the House back outright.

3) I would go so far as to say that not only will Trump not formally concede within two hours if he loses, but that he'll never concede. He may challenge state outcomes in the courts; he may start Trump TV and set up a 'shadow Presidency;' he may leave the concession speech to Pence and never address the election publicly again; or there may be yet another outcome I've not considered. But I think the only way a concession speech is made before midnight Eastern, if ever, is if Clinton loses.

4) I would super-love to see Georgia flip. I don't think it's going to happen. I'd love to see Texas cause the Republicans to sweat. I don't think THAT'S going to happen. I think Clinton's realistic ceiling is probably right around 350 EVs - flip Arizona, flip NC back into the Democratic ledger after it went Romney, and otherwise win the Obama states. If she does that, she'll have had about as good an election night as she's likely to have, and she probably brings the Senate (but not the House) with her.

If she carries the popular vote by double digit percentages, all votes are obviously off (but I'm expecting her to be about +6 to Trump).

[Butter]

How many Electoral Votes ABOVE the 270 needed to win will the winner get?

6. Clinton 25-49 (295-319)


What will be the National POPULAR VOTE Percentage difference? (rounded to nearest number)

10. Clinton +4


The election will be first called at: (Eastern Time zone)
5. 11 PM-Midnight

A) Will Hillary Clinton win Florida? NO
B) Will Clinton win Nevada? YES
C) Will Trump win Ohio? YES
D) Will Trump Win Arizona? YES
E) Will Clinton win, or lose by less than 5%, Texas? YES
E) Will the Democratic Party control the Senate directly? (51 seats or more, counting independents caucusing with them as part of the D) YES
F) Will the losing candidate make a concession speech within two hours of the race being called? NO
G) Will the Democratic Party control 208 seats or more in the House? (Meaning a swing of 15 seats or more) NO
H) Will Evan McMullin receive more votes in Utah than Donald Trump? NO

[SirFozzie]

Still have 10 or so days to go, be interesting to see what happens.

[jbergey22]

How many Electoral Votes ABOVE the 270 needed to win will the winner get?

1 Trump +100 (370+)
2. Trump 50-100 (320-369)
3. Trump 25-49 (295-319)
4. Trump 0-24 (270-294)
5. Clinton 0-24 (270-294)
6. Clinton 25-49 (295-319)
7. Clinton 50-100 (320-369)
8. Clinton +100 (370+)

What will be the National POPULAR VOTE Percentage difference? (rounded to nearest number)
1. Trump +5% or greater
2. Trump +4%
3. Trump +3%
4. Trump +2%
5. Trump +1%
6. Within 1% of each other
7. Clinton +1
8. Clinton +2
9. Clinton +3
10. Clinton +4
11. Clinton +5 or greater

The election will be first called at: (Eastern Time zone)
1. Before 8 PM
2. Between 8-9 PM
3. 9-10 PM
4. 10-11 PM
5. 11 PM-Midnight
6. Midnight-3 AM
7. 3AM-6AM
8. Past 6 AM


Part 2: Yes/No.

(Correct answers worth 5, incorrect answers worth -5)

A) Will Hillary Clinton win Florida? Yes
B) Will Clinton win Nevada? Yes
C) Will Trump win Ohio? Yes
D) Will Trump Win Arizona? Yes
E) Will Clinton win, or lose by less than 5%, Texas? No
E) Will the Democratic Party control the Senate directly? (51 seats or more, counting independents caucusing with them as part of the D) Yes
F) Will the losing candidate make a concession speech within two hours of the race being called? No
G) Will the Democratic Party control 208 seats or more in the House? (Meaning a swing of 15 seats or more) No
H) Will Evan McMullin receive more votes in Utah than Donald Trump? No
__________________

[larrymcg421]

How many Electoral Votes ABOVE the 270 needed to win will the winner get?

1 Trump +100 (370+)
2. Trump 50-100 (320-369)
3. Trump 25-49 (295-319)
4. Trump 0-24 (270-294)
5. Clinton 0-24 (270-294)
6. Clinton 25-49 (295-319)
7. Clinton 50-100 (320-369)
8. Clinton +100 (370+)

What will be the National POPULAR VOTE Percentage difference? (rounded to nearest number)
1. Trump +5% or greater
2. Trump +4%
3. Trump +3%
4. Trump +2%
5. Trump +1%
6. Within 1% of each other
7. Clinton +1
8. Clinton +2
9. Clinton +3
10. Clinton +4
11. Clinton +5 or greater

The election will be first called at: (Eastern Time zone)
1. Before 8 PM
2. Between 8-9 PM
3. 9-10 PM
4. 10-11 PM
5. 11 PM-Midnight
6. Midnight-3 AM
7. 3AM-6AM
8. Past 6 AM


Part 2: Yes/No.

(Correct answers worth 5, incorrect answers worth -5)

A) Will Hillary Clinton win Florida? Yes
B) Will Clinton win Nevada? Yes
C) Will Trump win Ohio? No
D) Will Trump Win Arizona? No
E) Will Clinton win, or lose by less than 5%, Texas? Yes
E) Will the Democratic Party control the Senate directly? (51 seats or more, counting independents caucusing with them as part of the D)? Yes, but they will only need 50 to control.
F) Will the losing candidate make a concession speech within two hours of the race being called? No
G) Will the Democratic Party control 208 seats or more in the House? (Meaning a swing of 15 seats or more)? Yes
H) Will Evan McMullin receive more votes in Utah than Trump? Yes

[SirFozzie]

The question is direct control, not requiring the VP to break ties

[SirFozzie]

One week till it's over. At least we hope and pray it's all over.

[Ben E Lou]

How many Electoral Votes ABOVE the 270 needed to win will the winner get?

1 Trump +100 (370+)
2. Trump 50-100 (320-369)
3. Trump 25-49 (295-319)
4. Trump 0-24 (270-294)
5. Clinton 0-24 (270-294)
6. Clinton 25-49 (295-319)
7. Clinton 50-100 (320-369)
8. Clinton +100 (370+)

What will be the National POPULAR VOTE Percentage difference? (rounded to nearest number)
1. Trump +5% or greater
2. Trump +4%
3. Trump +3%
4. Trump +2%
5. Trump +1%
6. Within 1% of each other
7. Clinton +1
8. Clinton +2
9. Clinton +3
10. Clinton +4
11. Clinton +5 or greater

The election will be first called at: (Eastern Time zone)
1. Before 8 PM
2. Between 8-9 PM
3. 9-10 PM
4. 10-11 PM
5. 11 PM-Midnight
6. Midnight-3 AM
7. 3AM-6AM
8. Past 6 AM


Part 2: Yes/No.

(Correct answers worth 5, incorrect answers worth -5)

A) Will Hillary Clinton win Florida? No.
B) Will Clinton win Nevada? No.
C) Will Trump win Ohio? yes.
D) Will Trump Win Arizona? yes
E) Will Clinton win, or lose by less than 5%, Texas? no
E) Will the Democratic Party control the Senate directly? (51 seats or more, counting independents caucusing with them as part of the D) Yes
F) Will the losing candidate make a concession speech within two hours of the race being called? no
G) Will the Democratic Party control 208 seats or more in the House? (Meaning a swing of 15 seats or more) No
H) Will Evan McMullin receive more votes in Utah than Donald Trump? No

[Marc Vaughan]

How many Electoral Votes ABOVE the 270 needed to win will the winner get?
6. Clinton 25-49 (295-319)

What will be the National POPULAR VOTE Percentage difference? (rounded to nearest number)
8. Clinton +2

The election will be first called at: (Eastern Time zone)
5. 11 PM-Midnight Eastern

Part 2: Yes/No.

(Correct answers worth 5, incorrect answers worth -5)

A) Will Hillary Clinton win Florida? No
B) Will Clinton win Nevada? No
C) Will Trump win Ohio? No
D) Will Trump Win Arizona? Yes
E) Will Clinton win, or lose by less than 5%, Texas? Yes
E) Will the Democratic Party control the Senate directly? (51 seats or more, counting independents caucusing with them as part of the D) No
F) Will the losing candidate make a concession speech within two hours of the race being called? No
G) Will the Democratic Party control 208 seats or more in the House? (Meaning a swing of 15 seats or more) Yes
H) Will Evan McMullin receive more votes in Utah than Donald Trump? Yes

[SirFozzie]

I think it's safe to say that no one got a positive score.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Butter

How many Electoral Votes ABOVE the 270 needed to win will the winner get?

6. Clinton 25-49 (295-319) Score: -2


What will be the National POPULAR VOTE Percentage difference? (rounded to nearest number)

10. Clinton +4 Score: -6


The election will be first called at: (Eastern Time zone)
5. 11 PM-Midnight Score: 6

A) Will Hillary Clinton win Florida? NO +5
B) Will Clinton win Nevada? YES +5
C) Will Trump win Ohio? YES +5
D) Will Trump Win Arizona? YES +5
E) Will Clinton win, or lose by less than 5%, Texas? YES -5
E) Will the Democratic Party control the Senate directly? (51 seats or more, counting independents caucusing with them as part of the D) YES -5
F) Will the losing candidate make a concession speech within two hours of the race being called? NO +5
G) Will the Democratic Party control 208 seats or more in the House? (Meaning a swing of 15 seats or more) NO +5
H) Will Evan McMullin receive more votes in Utah than Donald Trump? NO +5

I got 23.