COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Kodos]

That’s terrible, Brian. I’m very sorry to hear it.

[sterlingice]

I'm sorry, Brian. That's awful

SI

[Ghost Econ]

STOP ABUSING YOUR CHILDREN!!!!

Fox News' Tucker Carlson suggests viewers call the cops on parents with masked children

[Edward64]

Sorry to hear. I've been fortunate so far, no one close has been adversely impacted. Sorry its someone so close to you.

[Brian Swartz]

Thanks everyone for your kind thoughts. I'll be fine.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Miami Private School, Centner Academy, Won’t Employ COVID-19 Vaccinated Employees – CBS Miami

Impressive. In 6 months the GOP will have made storming the Capitol as part of a white nationalist coup attempt seem like one of their more sane ideas.

Those people run a school? What the fuck?

[Edward64]

I was wondering if what was happening in India is some sort of super strain etc. Pfizer is supposedly effective, would like to know about Moderna (got that one) but assume it is also.

The B.1.617 variant has multiple sub-lineages which slightly differ by their characteristic mutations but one of the main ones, called L452R, has been associated with increased transmissibility and lower resistance to treatment including vaccination, the WHO noted.

The head of the German laboratory BioNTech said on Wednesday however that he is "confident" their COVID vaccine developed in collaboration with Pfizer is effective against the Indian variant.

Ugur Sahin told a virtual press conference that tests are underway but that "the Indian variant has mutations that we have already studied and against which our vaccine works, which makes us confident."

India passed the grim milestone of 200,000 COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday with more than 3,000 deaths reported over the previous 24 hours — a daily record for the country. The number of fatalities has soared in recent weeks with about 44,000 deaths registered since March 1.

It has also detected more than 300,000 new infections for the seventh consecutive day.

[Edward64]

Vaccines are one thing but we need good therapeutics also. Hope this works out.

Pfizer’s experimental oral drug to treat Covid-19 at the first sign of illness could be available by the end of the year, CEO Albert Bourla told CNBC on Tuesday.

The company, which developed the first authorized Covid-19 vaccine in the U.S. with German drugmaker BioNTech, began in March an early stage clinical trial testing a new antiviral therapy for the disease. The drug is part of a class of medicines called protease inhibitors and works by inhibiting an enzyme that the virus needs to replicate in human cells.

[Edward64]

3 data points.

Like the 36x difference. There should be more PSA announcements on TV (e.g. Oscars for the left, NASCAR on the right, include streaming also etc.) about benefits of second shot and the cons of missing it. I've not been watching regular TV as much but I don't think we've been inundated with these PSA announcements.

We kinda knew about the second one. And think the article implied the third one is overstated as there are folks getting second shots but just not at the same place for various reasons.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/02/us/co...sed/index.html

While there is some protection after the first shot, it's not clear how long that lasts, and it is nowhere near what full immunization offers.

"There's a 36-fold difference of getting fully vaccinated versus partially," Dr. Anthony Fauci said at a news briefing Friday.

And then there's the question of whether the country can obtain herd immunity -- meaning 70% to 85% of the population is immune -- if the number of people who don't get a second vaccine dose keeps rising.

"I am concerned about it," said Jahre. "In order to get durability, you need to have that second dose."

And to get to where we want to be in terms of herd immunity, "you need to have durability, you need to have sustainability. And it's very important that people follow through with that second dose," Jahre said.

"It's certainly an issue," Wen said of the 8% not getting a second dose. "We need people to be fully vaccinated for the protection of others as well."

[Edward64]

What's happening in India is delaying vaccine production and therefore impacting rest of the world.

The article implied that India was helping produce the vaccine for ROW while not pressing full steam ahead to vaccinate her own population. Don't know the full story but if it was largely for profit motives, not good.

As a lessons learn, I think Biden's plan should include bringing back some level of drug manufacturing to the US. Don't know what the right balance is but it should be like Moderna/Pfizer etc. getting nice tax breaks for bringing the strategic stuff onshore.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/01/world...cmd/index.html

COVAX, the global vaccine-sharing initiative that provides discounted or free doses for lower-income countries, is still the best chance most have of procuring the vaccine doses that might bring the pandemic under control.

But it is heavily reliant on India's capacity, through its Serum Institute of India (SII), to produce doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine which are the cornerstone of the COVAX initiative.

While India promised to supply 200 million COVAX doses, with options for up to 900 million more, to be distributed to 92 low- and middle-income countries, its own rapidly worsening situation has prompted New Delhi to shift focus from the initiative to prioritizing its own citizens.

[PilotMan]

Just pulling India's numbers up to the level of Brazil in terms of infections per capita and death rate, and India would have roughly 100 million cases with about 2.2 million dead.

[PilotMan]

A few tidbits of info on India:

There are reasons why fewer Indians might die from COVID-19. India is a very young country. Only 6% of Indians are older than 65. More than half the population is under 25. They're more likely to survive the disease.

So when India confirms about 386,000 infections, as it did Friday, that may really mean it's seeing about 10 million infections, according to the institute's modeling.

India's deaths in this latest wave would peak around the third week of May, according to the institute's model.
"Unfortunately, given the exponential rise in cases, we may see the daily death toll rise to over 10,000 or even 12,000 a day, before we get to that peak toward the end of May," Murray said.

[albionmoonlight]

Covid-19 deaths may be more than double the official total - Vox

This has always seemed pretty obvious to me. Unless you want to posit an unknown disease that just happens to be randomly killing people at the same time as COVID, the only real explanation for the excess deaths is COVID.

[JPhillips]

But what about the suicides!!!!

[Ghost Econ]

I know you're joking, but suicides actually dropped last year

[Qwikshot]

Africa is pretty nervous after seeing India...once it explodes, it will run non-stop.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Africa is pretty nervous after seeing India...once it explodes, it will run non-stop.

Not just Africa but Asia too. The article says festivals, holidays etc. There's a graphic comparing Nepal with India, pretty scary.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/07/asia/...hnk/index.html

I do wonder why Africa doesn't seem as badly hit as others. Less indoor congregation, weather, genes etc. whatever.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I know you're joking, but suicides actually dropped last year

True. But I will speculate some of that number is collateral damage from the virus. There is probably a good percentage of the number from postponed surgeries, restricted doctor visits, fear of going to the hospital when normally they would, etc. Those numbers probably will never be quantifiable.

[JPhillips]

Final results from the Nordic natural experiment:

Cumulative COVID deaths per million people

Sweden: 1,403
Finland: 166
Norway: 141

Annual GDP change for 2020

Norway: -2.5%
Finland: -2.8%
Sweden: -3.1% pic.twitter.com/tXkwae3oit

— Alec Stapp (@AlecStapp) May 10, 2021

[albionmoonlight]

Herd Immunity is the latest in a long line of “If we put a fancy name on not wanting to do the necessary hard work, we can make it seem like something other than a lack of will” ideas to fail.

Doing the necessary hard work is hard. But not doing the necessary hard work is always worse in the long run.

[albionmoonlight]

Today's report was the first in nearly a month where first doses administered were larger than the same day a week prior. Yesterday had seen the smallest drop compared to a week prior in nearly a month, so two better days than in a while.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) May 10, 2021

There's always gonna be ~25% of us who won't get a vaccine to make a political statement. And the media has given them an outsized voice as the face of the not yet vaccinated.

But I think that the administration has rightly written those folks off as irrelevant. And it is instead focusing on getting the quiet reluctant to get their shots. And it is working.

We may yet reach normal.

[miami_fan]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/pfiz...-12-to-15.html

The Food and Drug Administration on Monday approved Pfizer and BioNTech’s request to allow their Covid-19 vaccine to be given to kids ages 12 to 15 on an emergency use basis, allowing states to get middle school students vaccinated before the fall

[Mota]

In Ontario Canada, they just opened the vaccines to 40+ today. Both my wife and I have appointments later this week (different days though). It was a stampede as the internet savvy 40-49 year olds went crazy to secure appointments. Crazy how we are in such a different place compared to the US with regards to vaccine supply.

[Edward64]

I think its relative. Crazy how Canada is in such a different place compare to Asian countries.

Just become the 51st state (and maybe 52nd with Quebec)

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/pfiz...-12-to-15.html

I don't think its a done deal yet, but was reading good news about vaccine safety and pregnancy also.

Regardless, if my daughter was pregnant, I would recommend waiting another 4-5 months and not be an "early adopter".

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/pfiz...-12-to-15.html

My son is 11 and starting middle school next year. He won't turn 12 until December...it's frustrating because from what I hear there's been a HUGE difference between how the local middle schools have been handling COVID precautions vs how the elementary schools have. And that was before the email we got earlier this week saying that masks will be optional next year.

I really wish my kid could get the shot before he heads off to middle school.

[albionmoonlight]

My one son is 13 and already preschedule for an appointment tomorrow pending approval.

My other son is <12, so he will be going to school without a vaccine next year. But our governor is a Dem, so we'll still have reasonable restrictions at the schools if necessary.

[miked]

My daughter got hers yesterday and a bunch of her friends went today. We are thrilled because she just turned 12 and will be going to sleepaway camp. I believe the data are being collected for the younger kids and my guess is there will be more approvals toward the end of the summer.

[Ghost Econ]

Just learned our neighbor is anti vax. Our daughters are the same age and best friends, but I'm really rethinking that.

[NobodyHere]

Huzzah, Ohio is lifting its mask mandate on June 2nd.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Huzzah, Ohio is lifting its mask mandate on June 2nd.

California is lifting it on June 16.

[Jas_lov]

I just saw the Yankees have a mini outbreak of 7 coaching staff testing positive despite all being vaccinated and the entire Yankees traveling party was at least 85% vaccinated. 6 of the 7 are asymptomatic. If we do open everything up will people eventually get it and the vaccine just helps people avoid the serious symptoms?

[RainMaker]

Can't tell if this is embarrassing or brilliant. I personally think it would just be easier to tie stimulus to this.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...ewine-n1267176

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Can't tell if this is embarrassing or brilliant. I personally think it would just be easier to tie stimulus to this.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...ewine-n1267176

I thought the last stimulus round should've been tied to getting vaccinated so I'm generally ok with it (except for the deficit spending but no one cares about that anymore).

[JPhillips]

They should make it really interesting and offer 100$ or a ticket for the lottery, but nobody knows how many entries were made until the drawing.

[ISiddiqui]

CDC says fully vaccinated Americans no longer need masks indoors or outdoors in most cases
By Yasmeen Abutaleb and Laurie McGinley

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...rs-most-cases/



Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

CDC says fully vaccinated Americans no longer need masks indoors or outdoors in most cases
By Yasmeen Abutaleb and Laurie McGinley

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...rs-most-cases/



Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

This will probably spawn 2 new conspiracy theories for everyone one it kills.

[Ghost Econ]

So, the billion dollar question is, how until the vaccine dose loses efficacy. What I mean is, do we know how long I'm "95%" protected? Is it a sliding scale over a year, such that at 8 months post-vaccine I'm now 30%? Does it suddenly go away? How would I know when the math is no longer in my favor for being protected?

I feel like this changes the calculus of masking and re-opening, especially since there's a non-insignificant swath of Americans who refuse to get the vaccine or wear a mask. I got my last shot the first week of April, so am I going to need to start feeling antsy again come winter when my protection starts to wean, but I'm not due for whatever booster I need to get for another 5 months? I just have to deal with freaking out about maskless Kyle and Karen who refused to vaccinate their 13 home schoolers?

I mean, I like being a hermit, but even I enjoy an occasional venture to a hockey game or a dank restaurant on occasion.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

So, the billion dollar question is, how until the vaccine dose loses efficacy.

They are studies going on right now addressing that question. Some of the folks who got the clinical trial vaccines (which started pretty much a year ago) are in the clinical trials for determining when boosters are needed.

From what I've read, coronaviruses do not mutate like influenza viruses, so while we will probably need boosters because our immunity naturally wanes, it isn't gonna be like we need a totally new shot every year.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

CDC says fully vaccinated Americans no longer need masks indoors or outdoors in most cases
By Yasmeen Abutaleb and Laurie McGinley

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...rs-most-cases/



Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

until next week when they change their minds

[Edward64]

The lifting of the mask mandate seems too quick to me. I get a good % of the pop have gotten 1+ dose already but IMO we should be moving from Red to Yellow, not from Red to Green all of a sudden (wouldn't do that on a project). Go to Yellow for another 4 weeks and then go to Green.

But overall, ain't going to argue with it as I'm sure Fauci signed off on this move.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The lifting of the mask mandate seems too quick to me. I get a good % of the pop have gotten 1+ dose already but IMO we should be moving from Red to Yellow, not from Red to Green all of a sudden (wouldn't do that on a project). Go to Yellow for another 4 weeks and then go to Green.

But overall, ain't going to argue with it as I'm sure Fauci signed off on this move.

I think it is just another way to incentivize getting vaccinated.


BTW, for people who don't understand HIPAA laws: HIPAA (which is not spelled HIPPA) says your doctor, hospital or medical insurer can't release your information without your consent. It does not stop your company for asking if you are vaccinated. I keep seeing the ignorant saying "This will violate HIPPA" when they obviously have no idea what HIPAA is. How do they think schools can require vaccination cards? Business require physicals all the time, not to mention drug test. I believe you have to wave HIPAA to receive Workers Comp.

[Ksyrup]

I don't see how this changes anything. This is once again putting the onus on retailers to police the unpoliceable (is that a word?). The whole point of continuing to require masks of everyone is because of the impossibility of telling the vaccinated from the unvaccinated. They should have just announced that no one needs a mask except in crowded situations, period. Saying that unvaccinated people still need a mask begs the question of how to enforce that. If I can just lie without any repercussions, what's the point? How is Kroger supposed to protect its employees and customers if it has no way to tell who is unvaccinated and without a mask?

[Ksyrup]

Also, many people raising the HIPAA thing are talking about stores being unable to request that info from customers, not necessarily their employees.

[Ghost Econ]

The easiest way to tell without a vaccine passport is to confront the following people without masks:

People with the American flag on their shirt or hat; or

Women in yoga pants with a child over 5 in the middle of the day.

100% none of them are vaccinated.

[Ben E Lou]

There is a high-ranking epidemiologist with the State of North Carolina in my wife's extended family. He is also a former CDC physician. Today, in advance of Roy Cooper's announcement lifting nearly all restrictions--which I'm sure this person knew was coming--he reposted this Tweet to his FB wall.

It’s possible the CDC saw a bunch of us trying to hoard gasoline in old Burger King cups and just gave up

— Mark Agee (@MarkAgee) May 13, 2021

[Ben E Lou]

Dola:

For context, since February 2020, this guy has NEVER posted anything humorous or snarky about all of this. It was a proverbial "spit water all over my keyboard" moment when I saw it.

[nickelback]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

The easiest way to tell without a vaccine passport is to confront the following people without masks:

People with the American flag on their shirt or hat; or

Women in yoga pants with a child over 5 in the middle of the day.

100% none of them are vaccinated.

Okay Karen.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

The easiest way to tell without a vaccine passport is to confront the following people without masks:

People with the American flag on their shirt or hat; or

Women in yoga pants with a child over 5 in the middle of the day.

100% none of them are vaccinated.

Yup. Neighbor who flies the Blue Lives Matter flag whenever a cop murders someone told me the other day how there is no way he's getting the vaccine. I'm like "no shit".

[QuikSand]

Talked with a public pollster this week about the intersection between her work in polling and the policy work of reaching the vaccine hesitant. Interesting case study here in what pockets to look for, even though it matches up with our intuition.

But fresh off a census, where everyone sort of got accustomed to a "suspicion of government" being associated with communities of color, especially non-English-speakers. We all got into a groove that those were the people we needed to make a special effort to reach with the census, to ensure as full a count as possible.

For many, the first instinct was that a government vaccine program would have trouble reaching the same groups. Not really true, and polling played a major role in helping reshape the outreach effort for the weeks ahead -- now that most of those who actively wanted to get the jab have done so, we're on to those who were hesitant or reluctant. And the messaging is definitely laden with the if/then language... "getting to this reachable number is the way for us all to get mostly back to normal."

There's a lot that people will study and examine for years from this stretch of time, which will turn out to be lessons learned for public health policy, as well as other areas.