Input Requested for Pool Scoring

[MikeVic]

This is for the NBA playoffs, but not dependent on the NBA playoffs (so any 7-game series knowledge for any sport is all you need).

A friend is running an NBA Playoff Pool, with the following scoring:

-10 points for every correct GAME prediction
-bonus 2 points for correct SERIES prediction
-minus 3 points an incorrect game prediction

Is it just me, or does this seem flawed? Why wouldn't I pick a 4-3 outcome for every series, as long as I pick the team I think will win to have the 4 games. Isn't the expected value the greatest if I do it this way?

[tyketime]

I'm not sure I understand this system.

Suppose Team A plays Team B. If I correctly pick Team A to win series 4-3, I could still end up big time negative, right?

Here are my picks:
Game 1: Team A
Game 2: Team A
Game 3: Team B
Game 4: Team B
Game 5: Team A
Game 6: Team B
Game 7: Team A

Actual results are just the opposite (except for Game 7):
Game 1: Team B (minus 3 pts)
Game 2: Team B (minus 3 pts)
Game 3: Team A (minus 3 pts)
Game 4: Team A (minus 3 pts)
Game 5: Team B (minus 3 pts)
Game 6: Team A (minus 3 pts)
Game 7: Team A (10 pts for correct game prediction + 3 pts for series prediction)

I still ended up with score of -5 (negative 5).

Am I understanding scoring system correctly?

Furthermore, if I predict series goes 7 games, but Team A sweeps, do I get -3 pts for wrong game results for #5,6,7?

[MikeVic]

No, you don't predict each individual game. You only predict the total games for the series. So in your example, you'd get 72 points since you guessed 7 games correctly (4 to 3) and Team A won.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Good question. Let me pick three scenarios and see how they work out.

Scenario 1 - You pick Team A to win 4-3 - Team A wins 4-3:
+40 for picking Team A's 4 wins
+30 for picking Team B's 3 wins
+2 for picking the series
Total 72 points

Scenario 2 - You pick Team A to win 4-3 - Team A wins 4-1:
+40 for picking Team A's 4 wins
+10 for picking Team B's 1 win
-6 for missing Team B's 2 wins (I assume)
+2 for picking the series
Total 46 points

Scenario 3 - You pick Team A to win 4-1 - Team A wins 4-1:
+40 for picking Team A's 40 wins
+10 for picking Team B's 1 win
+2 for picking the series
Total 52 points

Yeah, I'd just pick 4-3 for everything. I mean, why pick 4-1 and miss out on the extra 20 points if it ends up as 4-3?

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

No, you don't predict each individual game. You only predict the total games for the series. So in your example, you'd get 72 points since you guessed 7 games correctly (4 to 3) and Team A won.

Wait... you mean the Games prediction is how many games each team wins in the series? Then yeah, I would agree. Maximize your points by predicting 7 game series every time.

And to carry Pumpy's Scenarios further:

Scenario 4 - You pick Team A to win 4-3 - Team B wins 4-3:
+30 for picking Team A's 3 wins
+30 for picking Team B's 3 wins
Still a total of 60 points

Scenario 5 - You pick Team A to win 4-3 - Team B wins 4-1:
+10 for picking Team A's 1 win
+30 for picking Team B's 3 wins
-3 for missing total number of games
Total 37 points

Both scoring a lot of points and in both cases getting the series wrong.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I pick the Grizzlies to win every series 4-3.