Werewolf 108, The Gang Wars of 1929 GAME OVER - North Siders Win

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by J23

unvote PB
vote RealDeal

Just noticed. Realdeal followed CR's vote every day except the day that CR was up for voting where he didn't vote. I'm thinking that if he's not involved in the game, that is an easy way to do a drive-by vote and then disappear.

I think CR and RD could very well be the last two wolves in the game.

Interesting that you noticed that right after I mention that I thought you and RD are tied together. Is this a possible ploy to distance yourself from him?

[J23]

I was buried in the thread looking for the votes actually. post 628 has a summary in case you want to look back.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I guess what I mean is that Poli was the brutal so letting him get lynched got them the seer immediately and then they were able to nightkill Autumn. IF Danny drove a bad lynch, then they only get to hit the seer and the next day face the wrath of the village with both Danny and Poli outted. Does that make sense (it does in my head but that doesn't mean it does here)?

I see what you're saying, but I don't think it would have mattered if Danny could have convinced us to lynch a villager. Then it would have been game over.

[J23]

It's the same scenario as today, except one less trusted villager vote and one less untrusted wolf vote. I don't think it really changes the endgame.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by KWhit

At the time we were considering voting for Danny, it was 6-3. If we had lynched a villager that night it would have gone to 4-3 after night-kill and since one of the wolves left was the brutal we would have lost the game no matter what.

I just have a nagging suspicion that Danny was trying to get us to avoid the known wolf so that we would lose.

Thats not correct. If the brutal is the last one lynched, it works out. If like you say we lynch a villager and go 4-3, we then would have gotten a second shot at a wolf. If we did, it made it 3-2 and again another shot at the second wolf making it 2-1 even if we a lynch of the brutal there we have one last villager standing and win the game. Not voting Poli could not in anyway have been an end game play.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I see what you're saying, but I don't think it would have mattered if Danny could have convinced us to lynch a villager. Then it would have been game over.

It would not have been, read my post for details. It would have given us an extra chance at finding the last two wolves.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by J23

unvote PB
vote RealDeal

Just noticed. Realdeal followed CR's vote every day except the day that CR was up for voting where he didn't vote. I'm thinking that if he's not involved in the game, that is an easy way to do a drive-by vote and then disappear.

I think CR and RD could very well be the last two wolves in the game.

Well, looks like we're getting the conversation I was looking for.

I think that it's too risky for both CR and RD to be wolves and tag-team votes. Of the two, I do think it would be more likely that RD would be the wolf but then he's paired with either Danny or J23 which I've said is more likely J23 than Danny to me.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I see what you're saying, but I don't think it would have mattered if Danny could have convinced us to lynch a villager. Then it would have been game over.

And don't forget that Danny originally switched from Poli to Autumn (who we know is good) and then when it was pointed out that Autumn revealed as Capone, he switched to PurdueBrad (who is an unknown, but to me feels slightly trustworthy).

[Danny]

Originally Posted by KWhit

And don't forget that Danny originally switched from Poli to Autumn (who we know is good) and then when it was pointed out that Autumn revealed as Capone, he switched to PurdueBrad (who is an unknown, but to me feels slightly trustworthy).

Yeah and the wolves knew Autumn was the duke, I would have been a fool to know that and still vote Autumn there as a wolf. I didn't fully catch up before making the switch because I was on my blackberry.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Danny

Thats not correct. If the brutal is the last one lynched, it works out. If like you say we lynch a villager and go 4-3, we then would have gotten a second shot at a wolf. If we did, it made it 3-2 and again another shot at the second wolf making it 2-1 even if we a lynch of the brutal there we have one last villager standing and win the game. Not voting Poli could not in anyway have been an end game play.

Ah. Okay. I had one less villager in my head.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by KWhit

And don't forget that Danny originally switched from Poli to Autumn (who we know is good) and then when it was pointed out that Autumn revealed as Capone, he switched to PurdueBrad (who is an unknown, but to me feels slightly trustworthy).

I'll go look this up, I hadn't realized this to be honest.

[Danny]

Kwhit, if you want lets continue this after we get a wolf here. It feels like people are distracting from the topic at hand.

[KWhit]

Okay. Backing off of Danny. Sorry for the derailing there.

[KWhit]

Vote J23

[Danny]

I still think it is probably we have two wolves out of J23, PB and Realdeal here.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Danny

Kwhit, if you want lets continue this after we get a wolf here. It feels like people are distracting from the topic at hand.

I wish I could be that confident that we were getting a wolf.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

I still think it is probably we have two wolves out of J23, PB and Realdeal here.

This is where I'm at as well, only I replace my name with CR obviously. Although looking at the vote history, he is third by a decent margin for me.

[PurdueBrad]

No movement is either very scary or very good.

[Danny]

Yeah, if J23 is not a wolf no reason for wolves to switch. If he is, it's too risky for the last one to do so.

[GoldenEagle]

Past deadline

[GoldenEagle]

Final Vote Count:

4 - J23 - Chief Rum (674), Danny (675), Purdue Brad (681), KWhit (714)
1 - RealDeal - J23(698)

[GoldenEagle]

With Capone dead, his disciples are seeking revenge and justice. The dream of the Chicago Outfit must still live on. There is still a chance that Capone's master plan of the Saint Valentine's Day massacre can happen and destroy the North Siders once and for all.

Acting on a tip, the remaining members decide that J23 must be killed. Several members pile into a car with machine guns and head north. J23 is strolling along the sidewalk with a wrench in his and grease on his overalls.

*DAT*DAT*DAT*DAT*DAT*......*DAT*DAT*DAT*DAT*

J23 was John May.

Night Actions are due by 9AM EST.

[Danny]

YES!

[PurdueBrad]

NICE! And hey, if there's no nightkill then it has to be RD, right?

[Danny]

For me CR is un-lynchable now and I will consider him a villager in my analysis to find that last wolf. This could have turned this into a CR vs. Danny thing, but we both re-looked at things and made a good call in the end. I imagine the night kill will either be him or myself now.

[Danny]

History of Votes to date. I included myself and CR as villagers in the color coding to help me, but obviously anyone is free to change that in their own.

Day 1 - CrimsonFox - Danny (77)
5 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86), EagleFan (115), Lathum (117)
1 - Telle - Poli (51)
4 - Lathum - CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93), KWhit (113)
1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62)

Did not vote: J23, Passacaglia, Autumn (unvoted to avoid tie)

Day 2

6 - CrimsonFox - KWhit (201), Telle (224), Lathum (227), Poli (229), Danny (273) DT (313)
3- Lathum - Chief Rum (185), EagleFan (192), RealDeal (244)
3 - DaddyTorgo - Autumn (195), J23 (232), PurdeBrad (256)

Day 4 - everyone for Poli except for me.

[Danny]

Oops, Day 3

PurdueBrad 5 - Danny (372), Poli (416), EagleFan (451), Daddy Torgo (468), J23 (486)
Poli 1 - KWhit (381)
Chief Rum 3 - Autumn (419), Telle (431), PurdueBrad (455)
Autumn 1 - Chief Rum (437)

[Danny]

I still lean towards either PB or Realdeal for tomorrow. Although from what we've seen it's all the UTR players so far who have turned out to be wolves.

Interesting that J23 voted PB first and then switched to Realdeal. I'm not sure what that means, but should be something to consider.

[KWhit]

Awesome!

[Danny]

I'd have to think at least one wolf would have voted for Lathum one of the those two days with a chance to get a strong active player out early.

[Danny]

Alright I'm about to go off for a bit. Last thing I will say again is PB could have jumped on either CR or I after one of us voted for the other knowing the other two possible lynched were really J23 and himself, but didn't.

[J23]

good game folks.

go wolves!

[GoldenEagle]

A meeting of Capone's top lieutenants convenes early in the morning. The issue of who will take over for Capone has been tabled. The first and foremost issue is getting rid of the North Siders, especially with another one of their own being killed this morning.

The kill for kill continued last night. At first, everything appeared to be silent. The Outfitters finally thought they had gotten the last of the North Siders with John May, but that perception quickly changed. An alcohol runner named Danny was found dead this morning, during a routine sell.

Deadline for today is 9PM EST.

[PurdueBrad]

Blah. I was kind of hoping that it wouldn't be Danny just because he seemed to be coming around. I'll be curious to see if anything else comes out but for now I'll put out my vote and then play defense most of the day I assume:

vote Real Deal

[RealDeal]

I've missed two votes this game, so I can't really blame anyone for lynching me, but you would be wrong.

vote Chief Rum

My best guess based on going back through the thread.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

I've missed two votes this game, so I can't really blame anyone for lynching me, but you would be wrong.

vote Chief Rum

My best guess based on going back through the thread.

Really? Wow. Real Deal, better read the last day or so.

I don't know what to make of this vote. Is RD just not paying close attention? Or is this a ploy by a wolf trying to make it look that way, and thus attempt to swing us to the other "best" option, PurdueBrad?

I will have to think on this one.

[Chief Rum]

FWIW, I see our two options here as Real Deal and Purdue Brad. I would welcome opinions from all left on either of these two candidates.

I would like to think I have established my bonafides as a villager, but if someone wants to make a case, you're welcome to and I'll see what I can say about that.

I am pretty much figuring KWhit for a villager at this point, and if he made a ballsy move or two early on to get him into trusted territory, well, then, well played game, Mr. Wolf.

So for me, it's about Real Deal, the UTR guy (who just made an odd vote) and PB (the guy Autumn fingered).

Still end game. If we don't get this one right, the last wolf will finish the game with the night kill.

[KWhit]

Agreed, CR. This one comes down to RD or PB for me.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

I've missed two votes this game, so I can't really blame anyone for lynching me, but you would be wrong.

vote Chief Rum

My best guess based on going back through the thread.

This has me confused a bit. Two days ago I would've considered CR and he's my next least trusted player (in other words, he's between RD and KWhit). I don't see how it is possible that RD is not a wolf and CR is. J23 has spent a couple days trying to lead us at RD which makes me feel more confident that it was a wolf trying to get a wolf lynched for trust.

If confusion is the name of the game, then this has done it. I'm staying on RD but I'll go back and look at CR I guess. I'll also revisit Danny's defense of CR because it felt very stone cold, lead lock true at the time.

[RealDeal]

I'm aware of Danny's reasoning, but it doesn't seem like anything airtight to me.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

I'm aware of Danny's reasoning, but it doesn't seem like anything airtight to me.

How about I basically picked out J23? Why would a wolf do that to another wolf? Especially when that other wolf wasn't under any real suspicion?

I'm not sure what else you would have me do to show you I'm a villager. If you're an actual villager and you don't see this, well, I can lead a horse to water, but...

Of course, I am far from sure you're a villager, so making any presumptions on your line of thinking could be flawed from the start.

[PurdueBrad]

I don't plan on spending all day with this as I have the previous few. I read back through and can't find anything conclusive on CR, or at least damning enough to vote him over RD. The absolute inability to make any kind of judgment on RD screws this in a lot of ways (and screws me as well). Two game days ago, I would've been willing to vote CR, today I don't see any way to do it. My vote is essentially locked in for whatever that is worth.

[KWhit]

I am in and out for the rest of the day and not sure how much time I'll have in thread. So for now, I'm making a placeholder vote that I may change when I get more time. But the day is going to be pretty full, so I may not have the time I want. So just in case, I'm going with my best guess right now.

Vote RealDeal.

[RealDeal]

Last game, I was annoyed at being lynched because I felt it was for meta-game reasons in that I vocally opposed the warlock plan which I knew wouldn't work and would screw the villagers (and I was right).

This game, I can't really complain. I haven't been active or helpful and have missed two votes.

I will just make clear, however: if you lynch me, you are lynching a villager, and if you lynch a villager tonight, we most likely have lost.

I'm a solid candidate I understand, but don't make this vote without thinking hard about it. We have to get it right today, and voting for me without thoroughly considering all options does us no favors.

[PurdueBrad]

RD's insistence that CR is the right vote here continues to have me torn. Something I've learned from Hoops' uncanny ability to pick wolves when he's not playing is that not being in the middle of it sometimes gives you a different perspective. For that to be true here though, RD, I need you to answer this question before I would even consider switching. Have you read the whole thread? And if so, what about CR has pinged you so much?

[PurdueBrad]

I keep coming back to this but just can't see a way. NM the above, I'm set where I'm at.

[Chief Rum]

It's too easy to vote Real Deal. My gut says he is a misguided villager who had some problems staying in the day-to-day game for whatever reason this time around.

But there's a real case against PB. It's certainly not a strong one, but I will usually take a flimsy argument (Autumn's, FTR) over the UTR player/player acting odd (but not necessarily guilty). That actually runs against what I did yesterday; I made a gut call and went with the UTR player (J23) instead of the player fingered by a known good guy (PB). But that was specific to that moment. With a wolf and another villager gone, it's a new dynamic now.

And int his dynamic, I am feeling more skeptical on PB than yesterday. RD just comes off as a player joining abck up and being a little confused, trying to wrap his mind around a lot of stuff all at once.

It is a black mark on RD that he should suddenly return to more vocal play now that he may be the only wolf left. His return suggests he is posting more now because there are no wolves left (other than him, in this hypothetical), so he has to make himself more visible.

That said, wolves don't generally miss two votes. One may be missed, but the other wolves would then get on that wolf to be present and vote. It takes true apathy or circumstances beyond one's control to miss two votes as a wolf.

No, I think the better play here is PB, not RD.

VOTE PURDUE BRAD

[PurdueBrad]

I have no problem leaving this as it is and letting KWhit pick. There is a wolf laughing somewhere though because we've got:

PB voting RD voting CR voting PB voting RD voting CR voting...

[GoldenEagle]

Results will be delayed tonight. Please no one give away the ending.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I have no problem leaving this as it is and letting KWhit pick. There is a wolf laughing somewhere though because we've got:

PB voting RD voting CR voting PB voting RD voting CR voting...

Actually, as a villager, you should have a problem with this. The wolf will know who the villagers are and can switch at the deadline to make sure it's a villager that buys it. KWhit has already stated he won't be around much, and RD continues to make a very odd voting decision.

If I leave my vote on you, it opens us up to the above scenario with the wolf at deadline. I suspect you are indeed a wolf, but I am going to have to hope I am wrong and switch to RealDeal, as it is the only way to ensure that the wolf's vote has no impact on the voting.

If I vote RD, it will be RD 3, myself 1. If RD is a wolf, he can't do anything about it. If PB is the wolf, he won't bother to switch because RD, a villager, will be lynched.

Sucks, but I have to go with the hand I am dealt. I can't guarantee to be around at deadline.

UNVOTE PURDUE BRAD
VOTE REAL DEAL