FOF 6.1 Sandbox: Short Passing Offense

[Ben E Lou]

Honestly, I don't know if this really belongs in the dynasty forum, because I can't say with certainty that I'll actually play out this career. However, I though it would be interesting, with the knowledge that short passing works better in 6.1, to build a running/short passing team via a full draft. I may or may not play this out as a career, but I'll definitely to some comparing of how this team functions in a short passing offense versus one of my stock Run-N-Stun game plans. My hope is that what we'll discover here is that there are now other ways to maximize success other than the old standard.


EDIT: I decided that, for what I'm going to be doing with this team for now, it belongs in this forum. It may become a dynasty later on, but really, I'm more looking at the viability of a shorter passing offense in 6.1 more than trying to build a team for the long haul. That may come later with this team, but may not.

EDIT2: I changed the thread title, as this has evolved into sort of "playing in the sandbox"--just messing around with various things related to short passing.

[Ben E Lou]

HOW I PLAN TO DRAFT THE TEAM

OFFENSE
RB: I want an all-around stud here. This will unquestionably be my first pick. I especially want hole recognition, route running, getting downfield, and endurance for this guy. I want him to handle 25-30 touches per game.
QB: Depending on the pool, this guy could get picked anywhere from 2nd to 22nd. I'm looking for three categories here above all else: accuracy, screen passing, and short passing. Given what I'm looking for in this team, I'd LIKE to get a guy here who is mediocre overall, but who can do the short passing thing well for us.
OL: I'm going to emphasize pass blocking here, on the theory that since we'll rarely throw it down the field, the pass rush shouldn't be a major issue. These will be scattered throughout the draft, depending on a number of factors.
FB: Someone who can run block is what I'm most looking for, but pass-catching skillz would certainly be useful. I could
see picking a great all-around FB in the 5th or 6th round, but I could also
see waiting until the 22nd to just grab a run blocker.
TE/WRs: Getting Downfield. Getting Downfield. Getting Downfield. I suspect that the RB will be the top pass catcher, and the other catches will be spread around, so I'm not heavily concerned with Route Running here. Third-down catching and avoid drops would also help a lot here, since I want to keep those chains moving. I'll probably draft all of these relatively late for skill positions--probably in the 12-18 range.


DEFENSE
No particular strategy here, other than to go for big red bars as much as I can. The more the pool makes it look like I can wait on FB/TE/WRs, the more I'll fill in the defense on the early side of the draft.

[Ben E Lou]

Oh, in a big departure from my normal way of doing things, I'm going Main Street (more accurate view of players), no chemistry, no x-factor. I just want to look at utilizing talent, for now.

[Ben E Lou]

Heh. We rolled the #4 pick. 1-2-3 were QB/DE/QB. I have my pick of the litter for RB.

[Ben E Lou]

1(4)



I was hoping for higher GD than this, but I can't be greedy. He looks like a hoss.

[Ben E Lou]

Hmmmm...tough break here. Not a lot of Accuracy in the rest of this draft pool. There's a guy left with 98, and then the next-best is 68 (with low screen and short), then it drops to 58 then 48, both with poor showings in screen and short. I'm going to have to draft the 98 guy in the 2nd round, since he's also the 2nd-best overall remaining QB. He *may* make me want to continue this dynasty moving forward, though. He's an 18th-year guy, so you figure he's gone very soon, so I'd have to get someone else soon. Anyway, here he is:




I wish he were better at short passing and third down passing, but I love his Accuracy and Screen ratings. He should work.

[Ben E Lou]

Time to get started on the defense.




This kid looks like a shutdown corner who can stay on the field all day. Me likey.

[Ben E Lou]

Maybe it's just me, but it certainly seems that MLBs who can help out in pass defense are more rare in FOF2K7. Pease has some decent skills there, and quite a bit more than the remaining MLBs.

[Ben E Lou]

Gotta get some pass rushing going. Drafting Inthapany gives me a very solid defender at each level now. Time to work on the offensive line!

[Ben E Lou]

Sherman gives the best combination of run blocking and endurance of all the remaining offensive linemen.

[Ben E Lou]

Well, not an offensive lineman, but still a guy who will help spring William Nadell, and who also should be a help to the short passing game.

[Ben E Lou]

OK. Gotta get one more offensive lineman, then back to defense.

[Ben E Lou]

Great fit at LT for us.

[Ben E Lou]

Should be a nice help in stopping the deep ball.

[Ben E Lou]

Gotta have a run-stopper up front. Gonna grab an OLB, then look at offense again.

[Ben E Lou]

Changed my mind when I looked at best player available and saw this guy still out there.

[Ben E Lou]

Checked the receivers, and saw this guy who should be a nice fit...

[Ben E Lou]

Another good run blocker for the o-line...



This time, I WILL get an OLB next!

[Ben E Lou]

Red bars ftw!

[Ben E Lou]

Pretty significant difference between this guy and the next-best CB.

[Ben E Lou]

Nice pickup this late in the draft...

[Ben E Lou]

More help at run stopping on the d-line.

[Ben E Lou]

Looks like a role player who won't hurt us much on defense.

[Ben E Lou]

Can't get much more balanced than this guy...

[Ben E Lou]

Not the perfect fit, but pretty solid, and I need a starting SE. The guy I'm looking to draft as WR3 is probably a better fit, but he's mainly a FL.

[Ben E Lou]

With the run stoppers I have at DTs and MLBs, I hope to get away with starting this guy and letting him go after the QB.

[Ben E Lou]

I'm hoping he'll at least be useful as a run blocker.

[Ben E Lou]

OK. I'll now draft...

RB2, WR3, nickel CB, K, P (in no specific order there), and be done. The AI can get the rest of the team.

[Ben E Lou]

Heh. PERFECT. I hadn't looked at RBs, since I already had one, or I may have grabbed this guy a lot early. I may also be able to use this guy for some further testing on a non-stud RB.

[Ben E Lou]

I've had my eye on this guy for a while, but his low endurance kept me off of him as a starter. However, as WR3, he's a GREAT fit.

[Ben E Lou]

I don't expect this type of game plan will get many three and outs, so the hang time and directional punting seem like they'll be more important than booming it a long way from our 20 a whole bunch.

[Ben E Lou]

Let's try zone for the nickel corner. *shurg*

[Ben E Lou]

BKA, in my estimation.

[Ben E Lou]

The manually-drafted players.

[Ben E Lou]

OK. There are lots of things I'd like to do with this team, but the very first is to run a season with injuries off, with a mix of running, screens, and 0-8 yard passes. I'll very rarely throw down the field this first time through.

[Ben E Lou]

Surprisingly, Nadell struggled on teh ground a bit: 3.89 ypc. He did, however, catch 114 passes for 803 yards and 5.82 yards per target, and Aldoo completed 75% of his passes, but for only 6.20ypa. I want to run this a few more times to see if that's a reasonable representation of what to expect here.

[Ben E Lou]

Rushing-wise, that was the low end for Nadell, it would appear. Four straight seasons he's been at 4.3 or better, and the team has won 11-13 games. (It won 10 in that first year.) Let me run a few Rex seasons to see what to expect from that...

[Ben E Lou]

Before I load up to go Rex, I need to show y'all THIS.

Front Office Football 2007
2007 Summary for Atlanta Falcons
   
Year                2007                                      
Record              12-4                                      
Winning Pct.        .750                                      
All-Time            12-4                                      
Winning Pct.        .750                                      
Playoffs            0-0                                       
Playoff Visits      1                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Derrick Foster                            
Record              12-4                                      
Winning Pct.        .750                                      
Off. Coord.         K. Lane                                   
Def. Coord.         N. Norris                                 
   
Atlanta Falcons         Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         33.8      5           
Rushing Yards           145.9     3           
Yards Per Carry         4.32      6           
Pass Attempts           30.8      21          
Completions             22.3      1           
Completion Pct.         72.2      1           
Passing Yards           190.8     19          
Yards Per Attempt       6.19      21          
Yards Per Catch         8.57      32          
Total Yardage Gained    327.5     7           
3rd Down Conversions    47.4      1           
Points Per Game         20.8      7           
Pass Rush Pct.          18.7      3           
Pass Defense Pct.       61.8      15          
Turnovers               11        1           
Turnover Margin         +16       2 (T)       
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         24.0      4           
Rushing Yards           98.3      6           
Yards Per Carry         4.09      21          
Pass Attempts           29.0      4           
Completions             16.3      2           
Completion Pct.         56.3      11 (T)      
Passing Yards           197.5     14          
Yards Per Attempt       6.81      29          
Yards Per Catch         12.11     31          
Total Yardage Gained    276.8     7           
3rd Down Conversions    37.9      23          
Points Per Game         12.8      1           
Pass Rush Pct.          12.1      1           
Pass Defense Pct.       25.6      1           
Turnovers               27        21 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     19    at MIN        0       
2     17    at JAX        23      
3     24    CAR           14      
4     23    HOU           10      
5     14    at TEN        6       
6     34    NYK           9       
7     3     at NOS        9       
9     21    SFO           24      
10    26    at CAR        7       
11    19    TBY           9       
12    27    IND           17      
13    35    at STL        32      
14    23    NOS           15      
15    3     at TBY        17      
16    19    at ARI        13      
17    25    SEA           0       
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
19 S. Aidoo             QB    493   356   3052  6.19  23    7     97.7    
**Team                  ---   493   356   3052  6.19  23    7     97.7    
$$Opp                   ---   464   261   3160  6.81  15    13    76.4    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
29 W. Nadell            RB    399   1849  4.63  9     4       
28 L. Malinowski        RB    100   375   3.75  2     0       
Front Office Football 2007
19 S. Aidoo             QB    41    110   2.68  0     4       
**Team                  ---   540   2334  4.32  11    10      
$$Opp                   ---   384   1572  4.09  5     28      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
29 W. Nadell            RB    152   115   858   7.46  5.64  3     6       
32 R. Finch             FB    77    67    435   6.49  5.65  0     3       
88 B. Taylor            WR    73    46    541   11.76 7.41  4     5       
87 M. Mahoney           WR    49    34    328   9.65  6.69  4     1       
80 B. Bernstein         TE    47    31    308   9.94  6.55  3     2       
28 L. Malinowski        RB    29    20    178   8.90  6.14  2     2       
89 J. Sheldon           TE    21    18    95    5.28  4.52  0     0       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
54 T. Pease             ILB   98    37    1.0   2     3     6     80.5    
51 D. Levine            OLB   71    17    4.5   0     0     0     73.8    
35 A. Pigg              S     62    22    0.0   1     2     8     80.4    
22 B. Raumaker          CB    57    17    0.0   1     3     8     77.6    
79 J. Stillwell         DT    54    9     3.5   4     0     0     82.0    
98 F. Simmons           OLB   53    21    4.0   2     1     3     77.7    
46 C. Thornton          CB    46    18    0.0   0     2     16    80.5    
76 R. Inthapany         DE    45    10    15.0  35    0     0     81.7    
44 S. Massie            S     43    19    2.0   2     0     10    80.4    
90 R. Dawkins           DE    39    9     13.5  22    0     0     81.1    
45 N. Brady             CB    30    8     0.0   0     2     6     83.6    
97 M. Tomlinson         DT    29    17    5.0   3     0     0     81.5   

[Ben E Lou]

OK. Here's what Rex thinks I should do with this team on offense.

[cuervo72]

lol, 152 targets for a RB! 72.2% completions is sparkly as well. Curious - how does YAC look?

[Ben E Lou]

Cuerv, just ran another quick season with the short passing plan I used to produce the numbers above. The league average was 2.418 YAC per catch. My team averaged 3.378 YAC per catch, so the combination of game plan and talent helped to increase that number by roughly 40%. Pretty significant.

[Ben E Lou]

Just kind of playing in the sandbox here. Taking FB Finch out of the depth chart and putting in the crappy backup the AI drafted increases Nadell's targets significantly--by roughly 30 per season. In most recent run with Finch out, Nadell gets 183 targets, 152 catches.

[Ben E Lou]

Replacing both Finch AND Nadell with crappy players spreads the ball around a good bit more. TE Bernstein leads with 103 targets and 85 catches. WRs Taylor and Mahoney get 93 and 97, and 130 are split between the replacement RBs and FB. Compare those numbers to those posted above, and it's clear to me without serious testing that the AI heavily prefers the RB in the screen and 0-4 ranges if he has the route running to get open. Gonna run it now with the FB in, but with the crappy RBs.

[Ben E Lou]

Heh. Finch's targets jump a bit, but not as much as I would have expected. What's great to see here, though, is that trying to go extreme on the screen and 0-4 range really falls on its face without the RB in there to shoulder the load. Completion percentage is dropping into the low to mid 60s--an unacceptable range with passes this short.

[Ben E Lou]

Going with RB2 Malinowski as the starter and Nadell inactivated works ok for the passing (although it's still a cut below that with Nadell in), but Malinowski is only getting in the 3.3-3.7 yards per carry range. He is getting around 150 targets.

[Ben E Lou]

I wonder if ramping up the 5-8 range gets the TE heavily involved.

[cuervo72]

SD - are you thinking of running any of these with the same personnel under 6.0e? That might be interesting to see the changes in accuracy, yac and possibly ball distribution.

[Ben E Lou]

Yup. TEs get over 100 targets twice in a row with 5/5/90 short passing distances. Wr targets increase as well. RB targets get slashed all the way down to the 75-90 range. Next thought is to isolate on each range.

(NOTE: I'm intentionally not running multiple trials and averaging here. I just want a general idea of this stuff at this point...)

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I wonder if ramping up the 5-8 range gets the TE heavily involved.

Would make sense.

You know, this thread has me looking at the BRH stats from the past three seasons, where I believe I've consistently used a 10/10/80 split for short passing. 2014 saw a grand total of 32 targets to RB/FB. 2015 was a bit more at 45 (the TE were 88 and 73, though I'm guessing they were targeted in mid-range as well)..

edit: those numbers reflect the playoffs too

[QuikSand]

Anecdotally, I think the hot zone for tight ends includes both the 5-8 range of short passes and the 9-12 range of "long" passes.