2012 MLB Thread (Cabrera Gets Triple Crown, first since Yaz 1967)

[Sun Tzu]

Meh...I'm more keen to believe Zito's numbers look the way they do because of a handful of shaky starts, whereas Lincecum has been shit the entire year. Zito is getting out of jams, and doing what it takes to keep his team in the game...Lincecum isn't.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

WOO HOO! GIANTS KNOCK THE DODGERS OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS!

My fullest THANK YOU!

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

If Cabrera wins the Triple Crown, he is going to win the MVP. I think Trout deserves to be the MVP. He is the better all around player and deserves it. Had he played in the majors in April, I don't think there would even be a question.

Cabrera is the MVP, hands down.

[RedKingGold]

I'm looking forward to the "Curse of Teddy Roosevelt".

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by stevew

Like if 110 years of playing in the same division won't work enough for a rivalry?

Technically, the Orioles began existence in 1954, after the St. Louis Browns moved to Baltimore.

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

That's simply not true. ERA is a superficial metric.

Here's three stat lines:

IP / K / BB / BABIP


186 / 190 / 90 / .309
184 / 114 / 70 / .281
184 / 151 / 61 / .285

Anyone who looks at those lines and thinks pitcher no 2 (Lincecum is 1, Vogelsong is 3) is the best option is smoking something. Zito is the 5th starter, and the fact that our manager thinks otherwise says more about him. There is no universe in which Zito is a better pitcher.

Lincecum's 7.88 first inning era is a killer, especially in a playoff where momentum is so key

[stevew]

Braves doing the smart thing and just pitching everyone an inning today(one guy got 2). Could have made for a bitchin' no-hitter. Currently a 3 hit shutout.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

Meh...I'm more keen to believe Zito's numbers look the way they do because of a handful of shaky starts, whereas Lincecum has been shit the entire year. Zito is getting out of jams, and doing what it takes to keep his team in the game...Lincecum isn't.

You may be keen to, but this is rationalization 101, and more tied to run support than to facts (Zito got 4.69, Lincecum 3.96). Lincecum is a better pitcher. Its not close.

[molson]

Originally Posted by stevew

Like if 110 years of playing in the same division won't work enough for a rivalry?

No, teams have to play a bunch of important games against each other in a short period of time and their fans have to start to resent each other for a real rivalry to develop. I wouldn't say the Orioles and the Yankees have a rivalry now, but they might if they play 8 games in the post-season this year and the Orioles are good again next year.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

I'm looking forward to the "Curse of Teddy Roosevelt".

SI

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by molson

No, teams have to play a bunch of important games against each other in a short period of time and their fans have to start to resent each other for a real rivalry to develop. I wouldn't say the Orioles and the Yankees have a rivalry now, but they might if they play 8 games in the post-season this year and the Orioles are good again next year.

Orioles fans hate Yankees fans, but I have no doubt that Yankee fans consider the Orioles and their fans a "cute, little story" and that's about it.

[BishopMVP]

I hope Hamilton hits at least 1, if not 2 HR's so Cabrera plays tonight. Or Mike Trout goes 5 for 5. I hate players sitting out to win batting titles, let alone triple crowns.

[spleen1015]

I don't want to see any Orioles/Yankees rivalry develop. I want to see the Yankees lose tonight, lose the tiebreaker, lose the WC game and never make it back to the post season for the rest of my life.

That would be magical.

[sterlingice]

Wait, seriously: they actually let Teddy win. Wow

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I hope Hamilton hits at least 1, if not 2 HR's so Cabrera plays tonight. Or Mike Trout goes 5 for 5. I hate players sitting out to win batting titles, let alone triple crowns.

It would be one thing if they were tied. But when Trout needs 5 for 5 and Cabrera 1 for 5, that's pretty long odds. If Trout goes 0 for his first AB and Cabrera sits, I think it's fair to say Cabrera didn't back into it.

SI

[spleen1015]

Cabrera should play just to show that he respects the game.

[lordscarlet]

FIRST: Wow. Best record in baseball. I certainly wouldn't have imagined it on day one of the season. Go Nats!

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Actually, the word I used to your brother was "uppity", not "dickish."

Sorry, that was my self-reflective word, not meant to be credited to you.

Originally Posted by cuervo72

What was kicked around in the lounge is the idea that while fan interest in DC is growing, some of us expected it to grow faster than it has. This team was in a divisional race - why aren't games selling out? Is it because they were able to coast and had a wild card birth wrapped up? Is it a function of weeknight games (a tough sell in all but a handful of markets)? Football season?

Several possibilities:

1. New baseball is hard to sell (Miami, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Arizona as cases)
2. Football Town (I don't tend to think this is it)
3. Transient town (maybe)
4. #2 is enforced by the media, who even with a winning team often give short coverage to the team. They say because of the lack of interest, I say lack of interest stems from lack of coverage.
5. Lack of established fandom. The bandwagon will start in force now that they're in the post season I think. Washington fans have been burned by the Capitals and somewhat the Redskins with their lack of depth in the playoffs over the past 20 years. The Caps I think are the best example here -- a lot of people jumped on the bandwagon and may feel burned that the team didn't capitalize on their early season hype.

Originally Posted by cuervo72

The other thing that struck me about the franchise is just how poor of a bump the stadium gave the team. Either due to poor planning (building it when they still stunk) or due to other factors (location? parking? lack of surrounding attractions?), there wasn't that boom that other teams have seen.

I definitely think the economic downturn was a factor. The park opened just as the economy tanked. That not only meant people had less disposable income, but the area around the stadium that they expected to draw fans has done nothing.

I also would go back to what I said above. Did the Marlins see the boom you would expect this year? (I haven't checked the numbers). New baseball teams are a hard sell, I think.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

That's simply not true. ERA is a superficial metric.

Here's three stat lines:

IP / K / BB / BABIP


186 / 190 / 90 / .309
184 / 114 / 70 / .281
184 / 151 / 61 / .285

Anyone who looks at those lines and thinks pitcher no 2 (Lincecum is 1, Vogelsong is 3) is the best option is smoking something. Zito is the 5th starter, and the fact that our manager thinks otherwise says more about him. There is no universe in which Zito is a better pitcher.

Hey, I'm with you, I would start Lincecum and Vogelsong over Zito without even thinking about it much.

That said, damn, Lincecum had 90 walks this year? A 4.5/9 rate (or thereabouts)? That is awful. It's no wonder he has been so inconsistent. That kind of inconsistency, I can see why Sun Tzu would come to the conclusion he did.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Cabrera should play just to show that he respects the game.

If I were Leyland, I wouldn't. Apparently, he's been playing every game since late August. I'd rather give him another day off before the playoffs.

SI

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Cabrera is the MVP, hands down.

Hands down?

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out in the voting. This might be the BIG BATTLE between the sabremetric folks and the old school traditionalists that has been coming for a while.

The last time they went to "war", the sabre-folk won, getting Felix Hernandez the 2010 AL Cy Young with a 13-12 record or something like that.

Defeating a Triple Crown winner will be much harder than knocking off a couple 20 game winners, though.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

If I were Leyland, I wouldn't. Apparently, he's been playing every game since late August. I'd rather give him another day off before the playoffs.

SI

Do you think Leyland is going to be the one to make the decision? I don't. This is totally up to Cabrera.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Technically, the Orioles began existence in 1954, after the St. Louis Browns moved to Baltimore.

Same franchise, though, right?

[Crapshoot]

Trout is the MVP per any sort of rational analysis, and its not close. Its not war - its facts vs. "the narrative". I'm hardly an Angels fan, but Trout was the best player on the planet by some distance this year.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Same franchise, though, right?

Roger, Roger.

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Trout is the MVP per any sort of rational analysis, and its not close. Its not war - its facts vs. "the narrative". I'm hardly an Angels fan, but Trout was the best player on the planet by some distance this year.

BUT THE TRIPLE CROWN!!!!

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hey, I'm with you, I would start Lincecum and Vogelsong over Zito without even thinking about it much.

That said, damn, Lincecum had 90 walks this year? A 4.5/9 rate (or thereabouts)? That is awful. It's no wonder he has been so inconsistent. That kind of inconsistency, I can see why Sun Tzu would come to the conclusion he did.

Oh definitely - he's been awful by his standards, and his LD% is up. But Zito is playing with luck, and being given credit for that luck as performance. That's the issue.

His walk rate is basically 1 extra BB/9 over his career numbers; not good, but not awful either.A lot of his K"s have always been on people chasing that changeup or curveball early on into the dirt.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

New baseball teams are a hard sell, I think.

I'd agree with that - especially in an area fairly close to another baseball team. So that most of the folk who were baseball fans threw their loyalty to that team (I imagine there are still more than a few O's fans in DC).

[Easy Mac]

Kimbrel finishes the season with:

116 strikeouts, 231 batters faced.
Only 99 people put the ball in play against him.
43 people got on base against him, 7 of them scored.
23 of the 27 hits allowed were singles.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Trout is the MVP per any sort of rational analysis, and its not close. Its not war - its facts vs. "the narrative". I'm hardly an Angels fan, but Trout was the best player on the planet by some distance this year.

Except for when it comes to hitting for average, home runs, driving in runs or hitting in the 7th inning and beyond. In those (meangingless) categories, he's not the best player on the planet by some distance this year, in fact, his not even the best player at all on the planet by any distance.

Sure, overall, taking into account fielding, base running and all of that, Trout has been the better player, but lets tone down the hyperbole a bit. He was probably the best player this year in the MLB, but it's by a close distance.

[sterlingice]

Quick little side journey on the MVP discussion. I get that the difference between Cabrera and Trout on the fielding and speed side is huge.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...55&position=OF
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...position=1B/3B

I wanted to hit something I haven't seen anywhere. Is there a BABIP-neutral hitting measure? Cabrera is .332 to Trout's .381.

(BB/K/ISO)
Trout 10.6/21.9/.237
Cabrera 9.5/14.0/.277
It looks like if you were talking purely about hitting, Cabrera has been better.

It looks like Trout has been pretty lucky so where does luck factor into the "valuable" decision? Should luck count for anything? Does it make one more valuable because you had better luck and the award is based on what one has done? Or should it make you less valuable because you're due for regression as that .381 BABIP isn't going to repeat itself.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Kimbrel finishes the season with:

116 strikeouts, 231 batters faced.
Only 99 people put the ball in play against him.
43 people got on base against him, 7 of them scored.
23 of the 27 hits allowed were singles.

He finished above 50% on Ks? That's just amazing.

SI

[Sun Tzu]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Oh definitely - he's been awful by his standards, and his LD% is up. But Zito is playing with luck, and being given credit for that luck as performance. That's the issue.

His walk rate is basically 1 extra BB/9 over his career numbers; not good, but not awful either.A lot of his K"s have always been on people chasing that changeup or curveball early on into the dirt.

I find it hard to believe that Lincecum has been a victim of very, very bad luck all year. Whereas Zito has been doing better because of very, very good luck...all year.

I've watched all but a handful of Giants games this year, and what I've seen doesn't constitute as luck in my eyes. What I've seen is the following:

Games where Lincecum allowed 5 or more ER - 10
Games where Zito allowed 5 or more ER - 3

Lincecum has a much, much, much higher chance of imploding this year. Zito may get into jams, but this year (and especially in his last dozen starts) he's been able to work his way out of them with a respectable amount of damage.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by stevew

Braves doing the smart thing and just pitching everyone an inning today(one guy got 2). Could have made for a bitchin' no-hitter. Currently a 3 hit shutout.

How do they determine which pitcher is awarded the win in this case?
MLB - Atlanta Braves/Pittsburgh Pirates Box Score Wednesday October 3, 2012 - Yahoo! Sports

[Chief Rum]

I would argue that since it is an actual performance measure, and not meant to be measured as a predictive stat, that the fact Trout was luckier shouldn't matter.

It certainly matters, of course, if you're looking to predict Trout's future performance on the basis of this season, but that's not what the MVP does.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

How do they determine which pitcher is awarded the win in this case?
MLB - Atlanta Braves/Pittsburgh Pirates Box Score Wednesday October 3, 2012 - Yahoo! Sports

The starting pitcher didn't go 5, so he can't win.
First reliever entering with a lead that was never relinquished was Avilan so he gets credit for the victory.

[molson]

Doesn't the official scorer make the call in that situation, based on whoever he thinks was the most effective? (Though in practice, they usually go with the first reliever entering with a lead that was never relinquished).

[Sun Tzu]

Don't call it a comeback...the A's never left.

[molson]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

It looks like Trout has been pretty lucky so where does luck factor into the "valuable" decision? Should luck count for anything? Does it make one more valuable because you had better luck and the award is based on what one has done? Or should it make you less valuable because you're due for regression as that .381 BABIP isn't going to repeat itself.

SI

If luck counts for something - should RBIs and Ws matter after all?

[Scoobz0202]

Oh Hamilton, that was not pretty.

[stevew]

I wonder how many child soldiers will get to wear this shirt.

some other good shit in here. http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/1...handise-world/

[Sun Tzu]

Mucho credit to the A's for continuing to fight. These guys have created an incredible "will to win" culture in the clubhouse, and it's showing. I'm excited for the rest of the country to see it. I would not be surprised if they went deep into the Playoffs.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

Doesn't the official scorer make the call in that situation, based on whoever he thinks was the most effective? (Though in practice, they usually go with the first reliever entering with a lead that was never relinquished).

Unless the rule has been changed fairly recently, I believe you've got it right, scorer's discretion.

Seems like a guy who works like 3 middle innings strong will often get the decision over a guy who came in & worked only the 2nd inning or something. It kinda variable, at least from my anecdotal recollection.

[Crapshoot]

The A's are stunning. Wow. But this game is nowhere near over.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Cabrera is the MVP, hands down.

He is if you don't care about picking the guy who had the best year and did the most to help his team win.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Unless the rule has been changed fairly recently, I believe you've got it right, scorer's discretion.

Seems like a guy who works like 3 middle innings strong will often get the decision over a guy who came in & worked only the 2nd inning or something. It kinda variable, at least from my anecdotal recollection.

I tried to look for more evidence, but IIRC that the scoring decisions on who win's have been remarkably consistent in the last 30 years or so. I think you'd have to go back to Elroy Face to see some bullshit wins given due to "scorer's decision"

[Scoobz0202]

Yea, I'm not going to blow a gasket if Cabrera wins or anything but outside of power where has he had an obviously better season than Trout?

[stevew]

Let's just say, I found like 2 examples of "brief and ineffective" since like 1987. Granted, this was a pretty quick search.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13780

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I wanted to hit something I haven't seen anywhere. Is there a BABIP-neutral hitting measure? Cabrera is .332 to Trout's .381.

I'm not sure there is, mainly because BABIP for hitters is less influenced by luck than it is for pitchers. Hitters have greater control over their BABIP than do pitchers.

It looks like if you were talking purely about hitting, Cabrera has been better.

Nope - Trout has been the better hitter too, even with the later start. Check his wRC+ (weighted Runs Created Plus) vs. Cabrera.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

I find it hard to believe that Lincecum has been a victim of very, very bad luck all year. Whereas Zito has been doing better because of very, very good luck...all year.

Believe it or don't believe it, but a season is not enough of a sample size to normalize factors like BABIP, LOB% & HR/FB%. These are all factors that are somewhat to almost completely out of the control of the pitcher, and as such are subject to variability that can be thought of as luck.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Trout is the MVP per any sort of rational analysis, and its not close. Its not war - its facts vs. "the narrative". I'm hardly an Angels fan, but Trout was the best player on the planet by some distance this year.

I'm glad he is in the AL so that Harper has a chance at ROTY

On the awards note, does anyone thing Gio Gonzalez has a chance at the Cy Young, or does Dickey have it locked up?

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I'd agree with that - especially in an area fairly close to another baseball team. So that most of the folk who were baseball fans threw their loyalty to that team (I imagine there are still more than a few O's fans in DC).

I actually don't really think the O's have much to do with it, although maybe a little. Their attendance was up this year as well, and they haven't had a large following in quite some time. I'm also a little blinded on this because I grew up in the Virginia suburbs and never considered Baltimore to be my home team.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

I'm glad he is in the AL so that Harper has a chance at ROTY

On the awards note, does anyone thing Gio Gonzalez has a chance at the Cy Young, or does Dickey have it locked up?

We know how much writers love a great story, and Dickey is a great story. So it may not matter if Gio is actually better than Dickey. Sentiment may win out.

I haven't done a side-by-side comparison, so I actually have no idea how well they compare to one another. Just noting as an unattached fan, that it's my expectation that Dickey's story will likely appeal quite a bit to the voters.