2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Interesting. AFAIK, demographics do tend to be pretty consistent. If that's the source of the issue I'd still lean NYT.

If anything is unique, I think the Cuban population in FL is among Hispanic communities.

[kingfc22]

Susan Collins up big. *sigh*

[Lathum]

Arizona has become very important

[Butter]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Y'all talking about those FoxNews numbers led me over there, and ironically their probability page is actually soothing my fears.

Probability Dials | Elections 2020 | Fox News

We don't know what those dials are based on though. Could be a guy literally just turning random dials

[GrantDawg]

The Georgia counts are frustrating. Less than 1% in from Dekalb, 15% of Fulton and Gwinnett.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

It's like a mirror of 2016 where it felt like Clinton fell behind in spots she needed to and was scrounging for votes in the end that never came.

SI

Or 2018 when Florida made everyone think there would be no blue wave and then it came.

It is such a weird election with mail in and when they are counted that I don't feel confident in anything.

[ISiddiqui]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/statu...056895488?s=19

I realize there are lots and lots of votes still out in Ohio.

I also realize tons of them are in Cuyahoga and Franklin and Hamilton counties, where Biden's been up 3:1 and where the same-day votes are still gonna be 2:1.

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[Ben E Lou]

Fox up to 93% Biden. NYT 94% Trump.

[Butter]

According to NYT'S N. Carolina vote by county page, most of the outstanding vote is still to come from blue counties.

What the fuck is going on

[Brian Swartz]

So Fox's Senate dial was 91% Democrat control an hour ago. It now says 57% Republican. No idea why, but that escalated quickly.

[ISiddiqui]

The battle of the needles is fascinating.

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[PilotMan]

Confusion, dismay, uncertainty! Call the LAWYERS!

[molson]

Polls are stupid

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Fox up to 93% Biden. NYT 94% Trump.

WHICH ONE GETS TO 100% FIRST???

[BillyMadison]

Where does the Dem party go from here? Boomers—the worst, most selfish generation in American history— are thankfully dying off at a clip of 1.7 million per year but the Republicans have the Dems in a corner: they’ve won the turf/messaging war labeling democratic socialism as just plain big bad scary “socialism” which is now toxic to voters but Biden is literally the most milquetoast/centrist candidate you can put up. The far left/AOC/Bernie contingent coalesced and were good soldiers this time but they’re not going to get behind a second—excuse me THIRD— losing centrist Dem candidate next time. Just not going to happen. And when the party needs unity most it splits even further. Meanwhile the Republicans are somehow moving us closer to fascism and the Dems need a JFK/Obama savior candidate that just doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. We are fucked. FUCKED.

Also, abolish the pollsters. Seriously.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Check this thread. Cohen is saying the NYT thread in GA?NC is based on Florida, and it might not be reading the states differences well.


Last time I checked, there aren’t very many Cuban-Americans living in Georgia and North Carolina.

[Brian Swartz]

I want Fox and NYT to simultaneously call NC for different candidates.

That'll show em! Add in Georgia at the same time for bonus points.

[thesloppy]

Do the disparate forecast numbers & their sources suggest that both bases probably think they're losing tragically right now? That's a wrinkle I was not expecting.

[BillyMadison]

You know it’s bad when Dems, who have probably only read and looked at NYT coverage and projections this whole cycle and ignored Fox News entirely are praying that Fox News aka “the stupid uneducated republicans” poll/prediction model is correct and the NYT’s way off.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If anything is unique, I think the Cuban population in FL is among Hispanic communities.

Kind of, but you'd be surprised how many hispanics are out there in their 2nd or 3rd generation who really go gaga for Trump's immigration policy. Hell, my cousin's father (RIP) was illegal and he's as MAGA as they get when it comes to immigration.

[Swaggs]

This NYT writer is indicating that the needle may be relating some of the FL demos in its calculations of GA and NC (if I’m reading him correctly). Florida reporting so much, so early, may have skewed it. At least I think that’s what he’s saying.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn

[Lathum]

Ohio about to go down

[henry296]

We can do a lot with the $14 billion spent on this election. There is no reason we need to spend that money and essential two full years to figure this out.

[molson]

Originally Posted by BillyMadison

You know it’s bad when Dems, who have probably only read and looked at NYT coverage and projections this whole cycle and ignored Fox News entirely are praying that Fox News aka “the stupid uneducated republicans” poll/prediction model is correct and the NYT’s way off.

Fox News is many things but they are not stupid and they understand people and trends and statistics and things like that.

Is what I'm telling myself at least.

[Brian Swartz]

For the moment at least, Biden's Ohio lead down to less than 15k votes. Fox says he's fine, 85%. 64% of the vote in.

[Ksyrup]

NC Senator Thom Tillis has closed the gap to 20,000 votes with 81 percent reporting. If he wins GOP likely retains Senate control.

— Kyle Smith (@rkylesmith) November 4, 2020

[Brian Swartz]

I will not spend all night obsessing about Fox. I will not spending all not obsessing about Fox. I will not spend all night obsessing about Fox.

The fact that they have Trump very narrowly favored in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin will not make me pull my hair - what little I have left - out by the roots.

I will be strong.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by molson

Fox News is many things but they are not stupid and they understand people and trends and statistics and things like that.

Is what I'm telling myself at least.

Or they really do want to flip the results at the last minute and proclaim "IT'S A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE!!!"

[Brian Swartz]

Now 95% in NC on both ends. 82% of the vote in, and so far Biden's lead has continued to shrink. At 65k right now, 1.3% gap.

Originally Posted by Butter

According to NYT'S N. Carolina vote by county page, most of the outstanding vote is still to come from blue counties.

What the fuck is going on

My best theory; a lot of that vote is from people who voted early and are already counted. The red vote continuing to come in from those counties that didn't vote early. Either that or no clue.

[Vegas Vic]

Betting markets now showing Trump at about -220.

[albionmoonlight]

If those Fox needles are correct, then we knew nothing about this election.

They have Trump sweeping the upper Midwest, but Biden winning all the major swing states except for FL.

[albionmoonlight]

My guess is that the Fox needles are not accouting for the fact that the remaining vote is E-day vote, which will be much more pro-Trump than a random sample from the outstanding areas

[GrantDawg]

If Trump wins Wisconsin, then polling isn't just a little broke. It is completely and totally useless.

[Lathum]

I saw a lot of stuff saying Trump would be winning election night then when all the ballots were counted it would propel Biden to the win. Looks like thats at least plausible.

[Brian Swartz]

*Thunk*

That's the sound of NC getting even closer. Just 30k gap now. With that trend, I'm definitely leaning harder towards Fox being full of crap. I do still wonder though why they don't have needles for some of the other states.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by BillyMadison

Where does the Dem party go from here? Boomers—the worst, most selfish generation in American history— are thankfully dying off at a clip of 1.7 million per year but the Republicans have the Dems in a corner: they’ve won the turf/messaging war labeling democratic socialism as just plain big bad scary “socialism” which is now toxic to voters but Biden is literally the most milquetoast/centrist candidate you can put up. The far left/AOC/Bernie contingent coalesced and were good soldiers this time but they’re not going to get behind a second, losing centrist Dem candidate next time. Just not going to happen. Meanwhile the Republicans are somehow moving us closer to fascism and the Dems need a JFK/Obama savior candidate that just doesn’t seem to be on the horizon.

Also, abolish the pollsters. Seriously.

They won't do shit because they are losers who have a fetish for losing. Nancy will still be speaker and Schumer will still lead in the Senate.

Too bad they can't convince all the competitors to drop out and support Biden like in the primary.

[Lathum]

Fox news just called Graham to win SC Senator. The blue wave is a thing of the past

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Butter

According to NYT'S N. Carolina vote by county page, most of the outstanding vote is still to come from blue counties.

What the fuck is going on

Yeah. Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Raleigh, and Durham are all showing under 85% reporting. Vast majority of the red counties are showing 95% or more in.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I saw a lot of stuff saying Trump would be winning election night then when all the ballots were counted it would propel Biden to the win. Looks like thats at least plausible.

If this happens, get your guns ready and stock up on food and water.

Shit gets crazy for the next year.

[BillyMadison]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

If Trump wins Wisconsin, then polling isn't just a little broke. It is completely and totally useless.

As I said above. Using statistical models that predict “random chance” events aka NOT VOTING which is the least “random chance” event as it is a intentional choice is just inherently flawed. All these morons that had Biden at 89%, 91%, 95%, 96% chance of winning should lose their jobs but they won’t because they have plausible deniability that the most unlikely statistical event that was allocated for in their flawed models (at a <5-10% clip) could happen and it did. They are like weatherman. You get to be wrong. Way wrong. All the time. And keep your job.


Also FUCK Mark Zuckerberg. He needs to be hung out to dry for this shit.

[Swaggs]

I feel like, with as close as these states are, Trump may win again and Biden may win the popular vote by an even larger percentage than anyone thought possible. Way closer Margins, but possibly still losing, TX, NC, GA, OH.

[Ksyrup]

This is the lesson I keep trying to teach myself.

Twitter is just not real life. Eventually I’ll learn.

— Mark Ennis (@MarkEnnis) November 4, 2020

[Brian Swartz]

Trump now up by 100k in Ohio. 69% in.

Too early yet to throw polls under the bus. That may need to happen, but there's too much we don't know. Lathum's point about the mail-in vote, and we don't know how much or more importantly where all of that is yet.

[ISiddiqui]

Trump finally broke through in Ohio, but he won Ohio by +8 in 2016, and it seems this time it's going to be way closer.

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[Jas_lov]

And the lead in NC is down to 6k. It's all up to WI, MI and PA. These pollsters need to quit.and find a new line of work.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Yeah. Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Raleigh, and Durham are all showing under 85% reporting. Vast majority of the red counties are showing 95% or more in.

Union county has no votes in. High population that will be mostly Trump.

[Vegas Vic]

Trump now at -500 on Bovada.

[kingfc22]

Not great Bob. Not great

[kingfc22]

So AZ, WI, MI, PA is all that is left for Biden and he needs 3/4

[cuervo72]

Just watched the Fox Senate needle swing from blue to 84% Red instantly, so...yeah. Feels sciency.