Going Lean and Green: Prime Minister Infinity

[Izulde]

(Authorial Note: The initial timeline is way too short to do anything with the minor parties, so I created an alternate scenario that has everything the same, save a start date a full year before the elections. Yes, I know IRL BoJo called for a snap election in October 2019.)


December 12th, 2018
A year before the December 12th, 2019 UK elections. The Green Party has seen an overthrow, the co-leaders replaced by Caroline Lucas of Brighton Pavilion - the lone Green Party MP with an established track record of success.

The first thing she did was eliminate organizational funding for nearly all the seats being contested, which drew an uproar. But she knew that if the Green Party wanted their representation to match their popular vote, surgical targeting was needed.

After the Great Culling, besides Lucas' safe seat, three initial targets stood out (# is ranking of percentage points behind out of the 650 seats):


#40 - Bristol West
The only multiparty constituency where the Green Party held second place, Carla Denyer polled at 19% of the vote behind Labor incumbent Thangam Debbonaire, who had 46%. A top-heavy target was a key criterion in selecting the first three districts - someone who could be hit hard in advertising without being kingmaker to another party.


#93 - Isle of Wight
Conservative incumbent Bob Seeley held 44% of the vote, while co-tied behind him in second were Labor's Richard Quigley and the Greens' own Vix Lowthion.


#207 - Dulwich and West Northwood
This one in particular shocked the party at large, as Helen Hayes had 46% of the vote for Labor, and Jonathan Bartley polled third behind the Conservatives' Jane Lyons at 13% to 15% respectively. But Bartley, at 19% platform distance to Lyons' 23%, was poised to be the one to take over if and when Hayes fell to a negative advertising assault.


New Green Party Leader Caroline Lucas

[Brian Swartz]

This should be fun. I'm sure it will not ever, in any way, become a train wreck.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

This should be fun. I'm sure it will not ever, in any way, become a train wreck.

Honestly, the Ad backfiring rate seems slightly higher than the 15%, which is annoying when you're trying to eat into the leader... but we'll proceed nonetheless.

Three Weeks In - January 7th, 2019
Bristol West - 40th to 2nd - -10%
x:Thangam Debbonaire (LAB): 39% (-7%) (-4 Mo)
Carla Denyer (GRN): 28% (+9%) (+7 Mo)
Suria Aujla (CON): 14%
Neil Robert Hipkiss (BRX): 5% (-2 Mo)

Denyer has quickly emerged as the Greens' most viable pickup. In just three weeks, the Bristol City Councillor who is noted for her environmental activism - including spearheading the drive to eliminate fossil fuel usage at the University of Bristol - has cut massively into Debbonaire's lead and rendered the incumbent vulnerable. Pollsters are now calling this a competitive race, particularly since Labour appears to be abandoning Debbonaire and providing her no support.

Dulwich and West Northwood - 207th to 3rd - -18%
x-Helen Hayes (LAB): 41% (-5%)
Jonathan Bartley (GRN): 23% (+10%)
Jane Lyons (CON): 15% (NC) (-4 Mo)
Julia Caroline Stephenson: 5%

Despite the presence of Brexit Party It Girl Stephenson, the party has failed to gain notable traction. Nor has Lyons managed to move beyond her position at the start of the campaign. Instead, Bartley has emerged as the clear challenger to Hayes, though appears to have stalled out. It appears Green Party leadership was right to tab this seat as a spot worth targeting - massive leap forward. Worth noting: Labour is providing Hayes support, with a small amount of advertising and 2 Foot Soldiers.

Isle of Wight - 93rd to 7th - -23%
x-Bob Seely (CON): 44% (NC) (-4 Mo)
Vix Lowthion (GRN): 20% (+4%) (+2 Mo)
Richard Quigley (LAB): 17% (+1%)
Darryl Pitcher/Karl Love/Carl Feeney (IND): 5%

Seely has proven a much tougher nut to crack. It appears he has a dedicated base and a couple attack ads backfired. Much of Lowthion's growth is fueled by swaying undecided voters to her camp. Watch this space, because it's possible the Greens might pull their support here in favor of the more viable seats above.

New Possible Entry
Warrington North - 5th - -22%
Wendy Maisey (CON): 31.6%
y-Charlotte Nichols (LAB): 28%
David Crowther (LIB): 10% (-3 Mo)
Elizabeth Babade (BRX): 10%
Lydnsay McAteer (GRN): 8% (+1 Mo)

McAteer has nearly doubled her support since the campaign launch and is on the Greens' radar for her yeoman work despite the lack of infrastructure aid. The incumbent party is Labour and this looks to be a hotly contested seat regardless of whether the Green Party intervenes.

National Picture: 326 Seats Needed for Majority
Conservatives: 367 (34.6%) (77 single digit-lead seats) (298 seats formerly)
Labour: 183 (21.8%) (244 seats formerly)
Lib Dems: 13 (13.8%) (21 seats formerly)
Brexiteers: 0 (6.1%) (New Party)
Greens: 1 (3.6%) (1 seat formerly)
Independents/Change UK: 2 (1%) (5 seats formerly)
-------------
SNP: 51 (3.5%) (35 seats formerly)
DUP: 9 (0.6%) (10 seats formerly)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (0.5%) (4 seats formerly)
Sinn Fein: 4 (0.5%) (7 seats formerly)
Alliance: 1 (0.4%) (0 seats formerly)
Ulster Unionists:1 (0.4%) (0 seats formerly)
SDLP: 2 (0.2%) (0 seats formerly)

It appears so far that calling the snap election was a wise decision for BoJo. The Conservatives look to have a clear majority, though with 77 seats at a slim lead, perhaps they can be chewed into by election's end.

Otherwise standing out is SNP, who are currently poised to take 51 of Scotland's 59 seats after having just 35 before. Should that hold serve, SNP could well be kingmakers in the event of another hung Parliament. Sinn Fein is losing ground in Ireland - evidently people are sick of their elected MPs not actually going to Parliament, Irish nationalism aside or not. Quite a divided Northern Ireland in the early going indeed.

[Izulde]

End of January Report
Bristol West - 2nd - -6%
x:Thangam Debbonaire (LAB): 37% (-2%) (-8 Mo)
Carla Denyer (GRN): 31% (+3%) (+6 Mo)
Suria Aujla (CON): 13% (-1%) (-12 Mo)
Neil Robert Hipkiss (BRX): 5% (+3 Mo)

Another three weeks go by and we officially have a race on our hands. Denyer is becoming the bona fide rising star of the Green Party, as the 32 year old has narrowed Debbonaire's lead to single digits. Labour has supplied their now-embattled incumbent with 2 Foot Soldiers, but will it be enough against Greens' full-force support and advertising?

Dulwich and West Northwood - 3rd to 2nd - -18%
x-Helen Hayes (LAB): 43% (+2%) (-2 Mo)
Jonathan Bartley (GRN): 25% (+2%) (+4 Mo)
Jane Lyons (CON): 14% (-1%)
Julia Caroline Stephenson: 5% (NC)

Largely unchanged since our last review. Hayes has expanded her organization to match what we can and the Foot Soldiers and advertising are still here. Bartley, the former co-leader of the Green Party, just can't seem to break through the wall to make up actual ground.

Isle of Wight - 7th to 45th - -27%
x-Bob Seely (CON): 46% (+2%) (-2 Mo)
Vix Lowthion (GRN): 18% (-2%) (+4 Mo)
Richard Quigley (LAB): 12% (-5%) (-2 Mo)
Darryl Pitcher/Karl Love/Carl Feeney (IND): 5% (NC)

Might be time to abandon this one. Although support is gradually coalescing around Lowthion as the left-aligned alternative to Seely, the Isle of Wight shows no interest in abandoning their man. At the very least, no additional aid will be given to Lowthion, who has proven the most disappointing performer by far.

Warrington North - 5th to 12th - -24%
Wendy Maisey (CON): 32% (+0.4%) (-10 Mo)
y-Charlotte Nichols (LAB): 26% (-2%) (-8 Mo)
David Crowther (LIB): 11% (+1%) (+2 Mo)
Elizabeth Babade (BRX): 11% (+1%)
Lyndsay McAteer (GRN): 8% (NC) (+6 Mo)

Maisey might be starting to pull away, but Green isn't quite ready to give up on McAteer yet, despite appearing to have stalled out. Momentum is on her side and there's drainage happening to both Brexit and Green.

New Addition: Hull West & Hessle - 3rd - -18%
y-Emma Hardy (LAB): 23% (-8 Mo)
Michelle Dewberry (BRX): 22% (+6 Mo)
Christine Mackay (Con): 21% (-4 Mo)
Claire Thomas (LIB): 13% (+4 Mo)
Mike Lammiman (GRN): 5%

The Brexit Party is pouring a TON of advertising money into this one, and consequently they've turned the race into a three-way dogfight that's opened an opportunity for Lammiman to perhaps rise from the shadows and put himself in legitimate contention for the seat. It's the first riding to naturally rise to under 20%, so it's worth investing in to see what happens.

National Picture: 326 Seats Needed for Majority
Conservatives: 361(-6 seats) (34%) (-0.6%) (298 seats formerly)
Labour: 170 (-13 seats) (22.1%) (+0.3%) (244 seats formerly)
Lib Dems: 17 (+4 seats) (15.1%) (+1.3%) (21 seats formerly)
Brexiteers: 5 (+5 seats) (5.7%) (-0.4%) (New Party)
Greens: 1 (3.7%) (+0.1%) (1 seat formerly)
Independents/Change UK: 3 (+1 seat) (1%) (NC) (5 seats formerly)
-------------
SNP: 48 (-3 seats) (3.4%) (-0.1%) (35 seats formerly)
DUP: 8 (-1 seat) (0.6%) (10 seats formerly)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1 seat) (0.4%) (-0.1%) (4 seats formerly)
Sinn Fein: 4 (0.5%) (7 seats formerly)
Alliance: 1 (0.4%) (0 seats formerly)
Ulster Unionists: 2 (+1 seat) (0.5%) (+0.1%) (0 seats formerly)
SDLP: 2 (0.3%) (+0.1%) (0 seats formerly)

Note: I might stop tracking the percentage for the regional parties and just look at seats. The fluctuations are so small as to not really matter.

Labour continues right on bleeding seats and the Conservatives are experiencing chaos into toss-ups as well. The Lib Dems are slowly emerging as a possible return to their previous seat holdings, while the Brexiteers have suddenly acquired 5 seats and are in contention for at least one more tossup. SNP is still on track to top the last outing, loss of seats aside. The Ulster Unionists won't challenge the DUP for the unionist side banner any time soon, but they're making themselves a more notable presence in Northern Ireland.

[Izulde]

Breaking: Denyer Takes Lead In Bristol West Seat

Green Party candidate Carla Denyer is now in front

Most election prognosticators had Bristol West as a safe seat for Labour, but the Greens came roaring as Bristol City Councillor Carla Denyer became the first non-Caroline Lucas Green candidate in recent memory to take the lead in an MP race.

Recently released polls show the following (percentage change is from last week's polls):

Carla Denyer (GRN): 36% (+3.1%)
Thangam Debbonaire (LAB): 33% (-2.1%)
Suria Aujla (CON): 13% (+1.6%)
Neil Robert Hipkiss (BRX): 4% (-0.3%)
Undecided: 13% (-2.7%)

The surge doubtless is due to Denyer's successful environmental activism and visibility as part of the City Council. The stunning development also highlights the wisdom in Greens turning to Lucas' leadership for the third time.

****

I'm not going to go heavy into detail because it's only been two weeks, but Jonathan Bartley is now single digits behind Helen Hayes as the cumulative effect of negative advertising is hitting hard. Biggest shock? Bob Seely lost almost 10 percentage points this week and Vix Lowthion is now within 15% - good for third-best. Our other two currently targeted ridings are also under the 20% threshold, and there's six more regions that are at -23% or less.

Progress indeed.

[Izulde]

Beginning of February Report
Bristol West - 2nd - +6%
Carla Denyer (GRN): 37% (+1%) (+6 Mo)
x:Thangam Debbonaire (LAB): 31% (-2%) (-18 Mo)
Suria Aujla (CON): 12% (-1%) (-2 Mo)
Neil Robert Hipkiss (BRX): 4% (-4 Mo)
Undecided: 16% (+3%)

Denyer actually lost her lead the week after, but then reversed the course and has held on for two straight weeks thus far. I wouldn't quite call this a comfortable lead, given the sizable (and growing) number of undecided voters, but it's looking very, very good for us.

Dulwich and West Northwood - 3rd- -2%
x-Helen Hayes (LAB): 34% (-9%) (-8 Mo)
Jonathan Bartley (GRN): 31% (+6%) (+4 Mo)
Jane Lyons (CON): 15% (+1%) (+2 Mo)
Julia Caroline Stephenson (BRX): 5%

And there appears to be signs the wall is indeed cracking. Notice the similarity between this district and Brighton West? Us and Labour consuming the overwhelming majority of the vote, leaving the Cons and Brexit to fight over the right wing scraps. Trendlines suggest this is going to flip soon - possibly as early as next week.

Isle of Wight - 45th to 4th - -10%
x-Bob Seely (CON): 34% (-12%) (-3 Mo)
Vix Lowthion (GRN): 24% (+6%) (+6 Mo)
Richard Quigley (LAB): 12% (-2 Mo)
Darryl Pitcher/Karl Love/Carl Feeney (IND): 5%

As I noted last time, Seely abruptly lost almost 10% of his support, and he's bled another couple percent since then. What once looked to be a near-lock for the incumbent is now turning into something resembling a race - there's 21% of the voters who are undecided. So this has been a case of rising from the ashes to make it look like a game battle. It'd be nice to steal one from the Conservatives rather than continually cut into an already weakened Labour.

Warrington North - 12th to 5th - -14%
y-Charlotte Nichols (LAB): 26%
Wendy Maisey (CON): 22% (-10%) (+6 Mo)
Lyndsay McAteer (GRN): 12% (+4%) (+8 Mo)
Elizabeth Babade (BRX): 12% (+1%)
David Crowther (LIB): 11% (-1 Mo)

This has proven a wildly see-sawing riding, with Maisey getting hit hard and Nichols ascending to the top of the board while sticking with her core of support. 17% Undecided, too. This is a really split district crying out for some consolidation. We're hoping to be the ones who are that, though it's difficult.

Hull West & Hessle - 3rd to 6th - -18%
Michelle Dewberry (BRX): 24% (+2%) (+5 Mo)
y-Emma Hardy (LAB): 23% (-10 Mo)
Christine Mackay (Con): 21% (+3 Mo)
Claire Thomas (LIB): 12% (-2 Mo)
Mike Lammiman (GRN): 6% (+1%) (+10 Mo)

This is proving a rough region to make any ground in. The Brexit Party is pouring in huge resources to this riding as it's one of their targets. Major advertising blitz (41 Power!), 3 Organization Strength, 3 Foot Soldiers. I'm not sure we'll be able to crack it, given we're starting behind the 8 Ball, but we'll keep trying anyway.

Wigan - 7th - -18%
x-Lisa Nandy (LAB): 23%
Ashley Williams (CON): 23% (+4 Mo)
William Maloy (BRX): 20% (+8 Mo)
Stuart Thomas (LIB): 15% (-2 Mo)
Peter Jacobs (GRN): 5% (-2 Mo)

Sub-20% automatically triggers this as a new target, though Labour, the Conservatives, and Brexit all have this as a target already. I'm not sure we'll be able to make any sort of ground in this established battlefield, but it's worth a try to see if we should automatically target when it hits that threshold.

National Picture: 326 Seats Needed for Majority
Conservatives: 371(+10 seats) (34.8%) (+0.8%) (298 seats formerly)
Labour: 162 (-8 seats) (22.7%) (+0.6%) (244 seats formerly)
Lib Dems: 18 (+1 seats) (15.4%) (+0.3%) (21 seats formerly)
Brexiteers: 7 (+2 seats) (5.5%) (-0.2%) (New Party)
Greens: 2 (+1 seat) (3.8%) (+0.1%) (1 seat formerly)
Independents/Change UK: 2 (-1 seat) (5 seats formerly)
-------------
SNP: 43 (-5 seats) (35 seats formerly)
DUP: 8 (10 seats formerly)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (4 seats formerly)
Sinn Fein: 5 (+1 seat) (7 seats formerly)
Alliance: 1 (0 seats formerly)
Ulster Unionists: 2 (0 seats formerly)
SDLP: 2 (0 seats formerly)

Labour continues to get its ass beat repeatedly. Jeremy Corbyn has a trash job of heading the campaign. On the flip side, Nigel Farange has been doing with the Brexit Party exactly what we hope to do.

I think Plaid Cymru will be my next game after this one, incidentally, followed by the Lib Dems.

[Brian Swartz]

I'm curious if you've tried Campaign Trail (it's a browser-based what-if thingamajig based on some historical US presidential elections).

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I'm curious if you've tried Campaign Trail (it's a browser-based what-if thingamajig based on some historical US presidential elections).

Tinkering with it now.

So far...

Got my ass handed to me by Polk
Forced a House of Representatives and finished Top 3 with Douglas (the objectives sought for)
Beat the shit out of McKinley electoral vote-wise, winning 51.9% of the popular vote which made me particularly happy to do with William Jennings Bryan

[Izulde]

Lost the popular vote as Hughes against Wilson, but won the election anyway thanks to California and Indiana

Lost the popular vote as Dewey against Truman, running as a far-left Republican, but won the election due to California

Got absolutely crushed by Nixon electorally as JFK, even though the popular vote was quite close

Won over 400 electoral votes as Carter - losing only the Mountain West, a few Plains states, Michigan, Indiana, a few New England states, and Alaska.

Dukakis was a blowout loss - 436 electoral votes for Bush. Barf.

[Brian Swartz]

Interesting mix of success and failure, I wonder how much of it is random?

Anyway I didn't want to derail too much from the Lean Green Machine, I was just curious.

[Izulde]

Mid-March Report
Bristol West - 2nd - +11%
Carla Denyer (GRN): 40% (+3%) (+8 Mo)
x:Thangam Debbonaire (LAB): 28% (-3%) (-14 Mo)
Suria Aujla (CON): 11% (-1%)
Neil Robert Hipkiss (BRX): 3% (-1%)
Undecided: 17% (+1%)

I'm not foolish enough to say this is as safe as Caroline Lucas' seat, but it's rapidly heading in that direction. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see this turn into an outright majority by election time. That's a lot of ground Debbonaire now has to make up and she's fighting against a heavy current.

Dulwich and West Northwood - 3rd- -2%
x-Helen Hayes (LAB): 35% (+1%) (-14 Mo)
Jonathan Bartley (GRN): 33% (+2%) (+6 Mo)
Jane Lyons (CON): 13% (-2%) (-4 Mo)
Julia Caroline Stephenson (BRX): 4% (-1%)

Hasn't flipped yet in the month of campaigning despite the continued hammering on momentum from Hayes. But what's clear is that this is officially a two-person race, with the Conservatives and Brexit Parties very much in the back of everything with no hope of doing anything. I still think we're going to flip this one; it's just taking longer than expected.

Isle of Wight - 4th - -9%
x-Bob Seely (CON): 34% (-7 Mo)
Vix Lowthion (GRN): 25% (+1%) (+4 Mo)
Richard Quigley (LAB): 12%
Darryl Pitcher/Karl Love/Carl Feeney (IND): 6%(+1%) (+3 Mo)

20% still undecided. We've narrowed the race ever so slightly, but this was always going to be an uphill fight against a popular incumbent. I'm still not sure we can take this seat, but it's proven a remarkably fun challenge.

Warrington North - 5th - -14%
y-Charlotte Nichols (LAB): 26% (-1 Mo)
Wendy Maisey (CON): 23% (+1%) (-5 Mo)
David Crowther (LIB): 12% (+1%) (+2 Mo)
Elizabeth Babade (BRX): 11% (-1%)
Lyndsay McAteer (GRN): 11% (-1%) (+6 Mo)

We actually lose a little ground here - the race between 3rd and 5th is really a hairsbreadth apart. We'll keep trying to crack through, though I'm not quite sure how we'll accomplish that. A little disappointing after the promising unassisted start and rising to 3rd last month.

Hull West & Hessle - 6th - -17%
Michelle Dewberry (BRX): 24% (-6 Mo)
y-Emma Hardy (LAB): 23% (-8 Mo)
Christine Mackay (Con): 19% (-2%)
Claire Thomas (LIB): 11% (-4 Mo)
Mike Lammiman (GRN): 7% (+1%) (+2 Mo)

The optics here look slightly more promising with how many candidates are bleeding momentum and us not really having started up the engine much in terms of foot soldiers. Hopefully Lammiman being the only guy running will help him get more of the male vote.

Wigan - 7th - -20%
x-Lisa Nandy (LAB): 26% (+3%)
Ashley Williams (CON): 22% (-1%) (+2 Mo)
William Maloy (BRX): 20%
Stuart Thomas (LIB): 13% (-2%)
Peter Jacobs (GRN): 5% (+6 Mo)

Not great news here. Labour is consolidating the left vote and we can't seem to make any headway, given that there's only 12% of the voters who are sitting undecided. We'll have to attack more aggressively here and try to fight our way up.

National Picture: 326 Seats Needed for Majority
Conservatives: 361(-10 seats) (35.2%) (+0.4%) (298 seats formerly)
Labour: 172 (+10 seats) (22.6%) (-0.1%) (244 seats formerly)
Lib Dems: 19 (+1 seats) (15.1%) (-0.3%) (21 seats formerly)
Brexiteers: 7 (5.4%) (-0.1%) (New Party)
Greens: 2 (3.8%) (1 seat formerly)
Independents/Change UK: 2 (5 seats formerly)
-------------
SNP: 44 (+1 seats) (35 seats formerly)
DUP: 8 (10 seats formerly)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (4 seats formerly)
Sinn Fein: 4 (-1 seat) (7 seats formerly)
Alliance: 1 (0 seats formerly)
Ulster Unionists: 2 (0 seats formerly)
SDLP: 2 (0 seats formerly)

First month that the Conservatives have shown a slide back and Labour a step up seatwise. SNP stops the bleeding and the Lib Dems are slowly climbing back to perhaps retain the number of seats they had at dissolution. No real big changes for the minor parties other than Sinn Fein losing a seat. But given Northern Ireland's small size, I'd imagine it's difficult for there to be much in the way of change once things get settled in.

[Izulde]

Bartley Beating Hayes

Former Green Party co-leader Jonathan Bartley has taken the lead

It may only be a 1% margin, but Jonathan Bartley is now leading Helen Hayes in the race for the Dulwich & West Northwood MP slot - marking the third seat the Greens lead in and the second flip from an incumbent Labour woman to a surging Green Party candidate with an extensive record of political experience. In the latest polling, just one week after our broader monthly review, Bartley has 34% of the vote to Hayes' 33%, with Jane Lyons of the Conservatives far behind at 13%.

Nor was this the only good news for the Greens. Vix Lowthion is now just a percentage point behind the Conservatives' Bob Seely in the Isle of Wight - 30% to 29%, with Labour's [b]Richard Quigley third at 13%. Analysts rate this as a toss-up after months of predicting it would be a safe seat for the Tories to retain.

Speaking of safe seats - Good News #3: Carla Denyer has opened up a 20 point lead on Labour's Thangam Debbonaire - 43% to 23%. That +20% margin should be enough to all but guarantee that the Greens will have at least two MPs after the December election - an interesting contrast from the Brexit Party, of whom their 5 currently leading seats are all 10% or lower in the margin.

[Young Drachma]

Dynasty golden era once again? All the games coming out of the woodwork! I own this game on my PC but haven't played in ages.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

Dynasty golden era once again? All the games coming out of the woodwork! I own this game on my PC but haven't played in ages.

This is what happens when it's summer and I get distracted easily. Dynasties everywhere lol