NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[QuikSand]

Worth the untangle, if you're an aspiring Xs and Os type...Acho is a good follow

There’s no such thing as a “dumb jock.” To play professional sports at a high level you have to be a genius.

Allow me to decode Cooper Kupp’s brilliant touchdown interview that went viral.@NFL @LindseyThiry @KingJames pic.twitter.com/8EW8M5EzDi

— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) December 7, 2021

[Thomkal]

[cuervo72]

NFL put MIJB out of business!

[sabotai]

Watched the four episodes that have been released of Man In the Arena tonight. Pretty good series so far. I especially enjoyed episode 4.

[molson]

NFL playoff scenarios make me warm and fuzzy.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

NFL put MIJB out of business!

I'm curious, what did I miss?

I haven't gotten caught up with where the NFL is at this season. Maybe the 17-game and 14-team playoffs format got me out of synch.

[cuervo72]

I thought the playoff scenarios were always your thing -- or maybe that was only in fake leagues.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

I thought the playoff scenarios were always your thing -- or maybe that was only in fake leagues.

Ah, yes. It is. I just haven't quite jumped onto how the NFL season is unfolding yet. I'll see how much I can get myself immersed into this for the remainder of the NFL season. Maybe it helps me get back into actually being interested in the NFL.

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs Scenarios for week 14

Arizona
win/tie -> playoffs
loss + (at least) 2 of 3 from: San Francisco loss, Minnesota loss/tie, combination of New Orleans loss/tie and Atlanta-Carolina tie -> playoffs

Green Bay
win + Minnesota loss/tie -> division champions
tie + Minnesota loss -> division champions

Tampa Bay
win + Carolina loss/tie + New Orleans loss/tie -> division champions

[Thomkal]

woot

[albionmoonlight]

Sigh. It has been a while since I've had to look at my team through the "if these 6 things all break the right way, then you can back into the last wildcard" lens.

[larrymcg421]

The Dolphins will likely miss even if they win 9 straight to end the season. At least they don't own their own pick, so there's no penalty to trying.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Sigh. It has been a while since I've had to look at my team through the "if these 6 things all break the right way, then you can back into the last wildcard" lens.

Same.

[bhlloy]

The Dolphins should be passing it every down and trying to figure out whether they believe in Tua or not.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Same.

... oh:

SI

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Sigh. It has been a while since I've had to look at my team through the "if these 6 things all break the right way, then you can back into the last wildcard" lens.

The wild card race in the NFC is still wide open though, it's a week or two too early to disregard the Saints (and the Panthers and Falcons).

In the NFC South, the clusterfuck between Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans means that two of them will miss the playoffs, but if one of them sweeps the other two, that team will have a serious shot at the final wild card.

In the NFC North, Minnesota and Chicago are still in it, but at best only one of them can get there as they will play their head-to-head clashes in weeks 15 and 18.

In the NFC East, at best both Washington and Philadelphia get to 10 wins, because they still play both head-to-head games (weeks 15 and 17). And with Dallas also playing 3 games against those two (weeks 14, 16 and 18), it's kind of a best case scenario for all three to finish 10-7. The Giants aren't technically eliminated yet, but all those aforementioned games means so many wins will have to be distributed, even if the Giants win all of their last 5 games (especially the 3-some in division), they're still unlikely to catch up with second place in the division.

And then there's San Francisco in the NFC West, sitting in the hot seat for now. They will hold of the third and fourth place teams in the NFC South, but one of that threesome will become threat (of those the Falcons have the best shot as they're playing the 49ers in week 15). Same situation versus the Washington and Philadelphia winner and loser. Seattle isn't completely out of the picture, mostly due to their head-to-head sweep of San Francisco, but they're winless in all other NFC games, so it probably means winning all of their last 5 games is the only way to get in.

And that last part is basically how all of these .500 and below teams in the NFC must be feeling. Which at the same time means it's very likely one of them will go on a lukewarm streak and sneak in with a 8-9 record as the #7 seed.


On the AFC side of things, it's even more true that it's too early to draw a clear picture.

[Swaggs]

I'm not sure how to feel about the Steelers this year. On the one hand, they have taken more lopsided beatings than I can remember in a long, long time. On the other hand, they are still over .500 (and will likely drop to .500 tonight).

They started the year in cap hell, so I want to tell myself that they are in the process of rebuilding without totally tanking. So, if they are still relatively competitive after not being under .500 since 2003 (and that is the only time they've been under .500 in the 2000's), it is hard to get too down on them unless this lasts for a few seasons.

[sovereignstar v2]

Vikings looking good in regular season week 14

[sovereignstar v2]

Uhhh

[sabotai]

Broncos great Demaryius Thomas dead at 33 - Mile High Report

[Swaggs]

Heck of a game.

Another game where Chase Claypool does great things and boneheaded things, including a unsportsmanlike penalty early in the game. But more frustrating, with under a minute left, he makes a great 1st down catch and then does the dramatic first down point and tosses the ball away from the ref, allowing 5-10 extra seconds to go off the clock. Tough to root for this guy.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Broncos great Demaryius Thomas dead at 33 - Mile High Report

Terrible news. He had a rough life.

Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas dreams of reuniting his estranged family

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Broncos great Demaryius Thomas dead at 33 - Mile High Report

Great player. What a shock so young. Sounds like he was suffering from seizures once he stopped playing.

[molson]

The Jacksonville drama is pretty entertaining. Urban Meyer hates James Robinson for some reason and refused to play him until Trevor Lawrence got involved late in the game. And then there was this bit.

"During a staff meeting, Meyer delivered a biting message that he's a winner and his assistant coaches are losers, according to several people informed of the contents of the meeting, challenging each coach individually to explain when they've ever won and forcing them to defend their résumés."

Tension boiling over between coach Urban Meyer, Jaguars players, staff amid 2-10 start

[miami_fan]

Tension boiling over between coach Urban Meyer, Jaguars players, staff amid 2-10 start

For the 834th time this calendar year, what was the point of the Jags hiring Urban Meyer?

[Solecismic]

At this point, it seems obvious that Urban prefers civilian living. He can dance the night away, heart unencumbered.

Sure, I understand the angry reaction to an early fumble. But these are pros and there's nothing a pro running back hates more than fumbling. No lesson to teach there and the Jags cannot leave rushing yards ungained.

When your rookie quarterback is openly questioning your approach, you're done. Maybe even by the end of the day.

[Thomkal]

Pretty boring week of games at least until Monday night. Lot of byes and not very exciting matchups

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Tension boiling over between coach Urban Meyer, Jaguars players, staff amid 2-10 start

For the 834th time this calendar year, what was the point of the Jags hiring Urban Meyer?

Someone had to hire Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer?

[JPhillips]

With Jackson leaving on a stretcher, the NFC North is really anyone's division now.

[Thomkal]

I'd say that Jax game today pretty much says it all, be very surprised if Urban is back

[RainMaker]

Urban is just not cut out for the big leagues. Both sides would benefit from realizing that.

[Solecismic]

The new 17th game this year (aligned with last season's standings) and the CBA rookie salary reform of a few years back has given teams a lot of incentive to tank that wasn't there in the past.

Maybe this is intentional. The Jags did not execute even a minimal level of professional competence on offense today. Vanilla, then just chuck and chase in the second half.

If they're not tanking (the Texans are giving them a good run for 32nd with their dismal QB situation - I think the Lions are better than both at this stage), Meyer would be gone by now.

I think the NFL should change the 17th game to reverse-standings order (there's already the two intra-conference standings-based games, so this would make the schedule effectively a bit more neutral) as a disincentive for tanking. I know they want more premium matchups, but it comes at a cost.

[bhlloy]

It’s a weird year to tank though… lots of non traditional positions inside the top 10, not a single can’t miss QB. Unless you really love one of Hutchinson or Thibodeaux, the incentive really isn’t there. I think it’s more likely that there are just 3 franchises that are absolute shitshows and Meyer will be gone, but I’d imagine there’s also some financial impact to canning him after the season vs during (or they are hoping given enough time he does the publicly embarrassing himself thing again so they have cause for termination)

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It’s a weird year to tank though… lots of non traditional positions inside the top 10, not a single can’t miss QB. Unless you really love one of Hutchinson or Thibodeaux, the incentive really isn’t there. I think it’s more likely that there are just 3 franchises that are absolute shitshows and Meyer will be gone, but I’d imagine there’s also some financial impact to canning him after the season vs during (or they are hoping given enough time he does the publicly embarrassing himself thing again so they have cause for termination)

It wouldn't be very expensive just to promote Strong from assistant head coach. They'd have the benefit of four games with a guy the players respect rather than a guy they clearly don't.

We don't know how the top defensive players will fare through the bowl season and the Combine. One of those guys could emerge, and I think it's too early to give up on Lawrence. Premium edge rushers are more and more valuable these days.

I'd say the Jets are also in the shitshow department, but they pick twice right near the top - they could turn what's already not a terrible defense into a force. (editing, they have become pretty bad on defense, and it might not just be the DE injury).

If you need a quarterback, though, you're in bad shape.

[JonInMiddleGA]

From somebody who follows this shit more than I do ... percentage of Meyer hires vs holdovers from previous staff?

I mean, that kinda seems relevant to me.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

From somebody who follows this shit more than I do ... percentage of Meyer hires vs holdovers from previous staff?

I mean, that kinda seems relevant to me.

A quick look indicates four position coaches were retained and one promoted. So he kept very little, and I think every major position is held by someone he knew in college.

A mid-season firing is different from a search-and-hire. Coaches understand - it's just the way it works. That's the major reason I don't allow mid-season coach changes in FOF - it's a different paradigm - you only do it to change things about the team that I don't try and model (relationships between players and coaches).

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

The Dolphins will likely miss even if they win 9 straight to end the season. At least they don't own their own pick, so there's no penalty to trying.

Nah, 10 wins gets anyone in. Not calling that they will but this rally isn’t hopeless.

[Atocep]

This Burrow kid can throw the ball pretty well when he's standing up.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The new 17th game this year (aligned with last season's standings) and the CBA rookie salary reform of a few years back has given teams a lot of incentive to tank that wasn't there in the past.

I've seen this take a few places this year and I'm not sure I get it. Why does 17 games incentivize tanking much more than 16?

SI

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

From somebody who follows this shit more than I do ... percentage of Meyer hires vs holdovers from previous staff?

I mean, that kinda seems relevant to me.

Urban Meyer formally announces Jaguars' 30-person coaching staff | FOX Sports

But Meyer kept seven holdovers from fired coach Doug Marrone’s staff: veteran offensive line coach George Warhop; cornerbacks coach Tim Walton; nickel cornerbacks coach Joe Danna; assistant linebackers coach Tony Gilbert; assistant strength coach Cedric Scott; assistant to the head coach ElizaBeth Mayers; and administrative assistant Tyler Wolf.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I've seen this take a few places this year and I'm not sure I get it. Why does 17 games incentivize tanking much more than 16?

SI

Because the more you lose, the easier your schedule will be in the next season.

In the 16-team format installed on the expansion to 32 teams, on paper every team plays an equal schedule: 4 times vs a 1st place team, 4 times a 2nd place team, 4 times a 3rd place team and 4 times a 4th place team.

With 17 games, all the 4th place teams play their bonus game against another 4th place team, while a 3rd place team gets to play a 3rd place team, 2nd a 2nd and division champ another division champ. So losing now helps getting a slightly easier schedule next season.

[MIJB#19]

Hah, a magical double post.

[Ksyrup]

Broncos final drive of the game, resulting in a TD... 88 yards. Of course.

[SirFozzie]

what a play to end the Niners win.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Because the more you lose, the easier your schedule will be in the next season.

In the 16-team format installed on the expansion to 32 teams, on paper every team plays an equal schedule: 4 times vs a 1st place team, 4 times a 2nd place team, 4 times a 3rd place team and 4 times a 4th place team.

With 17 games, all the 4th place teams play their bonus game against another 4th place team, while a 3rd place team gets to play a 3rd place team, 2nd a 2nd and division champ another division champ. So losing now helps getting a slightly easier schedule next season.

I thought in the past it was this:
6 games against division
4 games against "partner" division in AFC
4 games against "partner" division in NFC
2 games against same place finisher in conference (i.e. 3rd place plays other 3rd place finishers in conference)

I'm guessing the new game adds 1 more game against opposite conference play, right? That's a bit of a help, but 1 game out of 17 for 1st place vs 4th place (or, really, more like 2nd vs 3rd or 3rd vs 4th) doesn't seem like a huge incentive.

I mean, there's always been a lot of incentive to tank for a better draft pick. But the NFL has mostly not had a lot of that.

Maybe I'm underestimating just how much a small edge matters in the NFL.

SI

[SirFozzie]

And Brady TD #700 is a walk off OT winner.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I thought in the past it was this:
6 games against division
4 games against "partner" division in AFC
4 games against "partner" division in NFC
2 games against same place finisher in conference (i.e. 3rd place plays other 3rd place finishers in conference)

Exactly. Which since 2002 always worked out the way I called it, but it looks less obvious to be designed as an all equal schedule when you use the technically correct terms like you did here.

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm guessing the new game adds 1 more game against opposite conference play, right? That's a bit of a help, but 1 game out of 17 for 1st place vs 4th place (or, really, more like 2nd vs 3rd or 3rd vs 4th) doesn't seem like a huge incentive.

I mean, there's always been a lot of incentive to tank for a better draft pick. But the NFL has mostly not had a lot of that.

Maybe I'm underestimating just how much a small edge matters in the NFL.

SI

I mean, I was taking a guess at what Solecismic meant there, but that would be my take on it. I'd call it a small incentive to try to lose a week 17 or 18 divisional game to get to face a 4th place team in the next season, if you're aiming for an easier schedule. Will or can teams do it? I doubt any players will act on it, but people in charge might find it appealing.

For the Denver Broncos, it resulted in today's matchup against the Detriot Lions (and vice versa), rather than the Vikings (or the Chargers). For the Cincinnati Bengals it resulted in today's matchup vs the 49ers rather than the Cardinals (and the other way around the 49ers 'dodged' the Browns).

Sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn't seem to matter a lot, like for the Texans vs the Panthers and the Jaguars vs the Falcons. It would probably ended up the same way the other way around: the AFC South teams losing.

[SirFozzie]

Bills fans (pregame) : "At least the one good thing is that there's no more painful way to lose then last week."

(Monkey's paw curls)

Bills Fans (Halftime): "At least there's no more painful way to lose than not showing up this week"

(monkey's paw curls)

Bills Fans (Start of OT): Yes! What heart by the team, there's no way we're going to lose now..

(monkey's paw curls, and ends up giving the middle finger to Bills fans)

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs Scenarios for week 14

Arizona
win/tie -> playoffs




Playoff Scenarios for week 15

New England
Buffalo can still get division record tie-breakers over New England, making a division clinch scenario impossible in week 15.
Miami can still get head-to-head tie-breaker over New England. There might be a scenario where New England wins, Miami loses and a whole lot of other results in the AFC fall New England's way to secure a wild card, but it's too much work to work them all out, for now.

Tennessee
win + Indianapolis loss -> division champions
Tennessee has head-to-head tie-breaker over Indianapolis.
There might be a scenario where Tennessee wins, Indianapolis doesn't lose and a whole lot of other results in the AFC fall Tennessee's way to secure a wild card, but it's too much work to work them all out, for now.

Kansas
There might be a scenario where Kansas wins and a whole lot of other results in the AFC fall Kansas' way to secure a wild card, but it's too much work to work them all out, for now.


Dallas
win + Washington-Philadelphia tie -> division champions
win + Philadelphia win + 1 or more from these 6: NY Jets loss/tie, Denver loss/tie, Detroit loss/tie, New England win/tie, LA Chargers win/tie, Minnesota win/tie -> division champions
Washington can still get common games tie-breaker over Dallas (after losing in week 15 and Dallas winning in week 15).
Philadelphia (after losing in week 15 and Dallas winning in week 15) can still get strength of victory tie-breaker over Dallas, requiring good results from NY Jets, Denver and Detroit and bad results from New England, LA Chargers and Minnesota (Philadelphia needs the first three to combine for 12-0 and the last three to combine for 0-12 in weeks 15 through 18). If that ends up tied, Dallas will have strength of schedule tie-breaker over Philadelphia.

Green Bay
win/tie -> division champions
loss + Minnesota loss/tie -> division champions
loss + Minnesota win + 2 of 3 from: San Francisco loss, Philadelphia-Washington tie, New Orleans loss/tie
Minnesota will have head-to-head tie-breaker over Green Bay if they end up tied at 10-7.


Tampa Bay
win/tie -> division champions
loss + New Orleans loss/tie -> division champions
loss + New Orleans win + Washington-Philadelphia tie + Minnesota loss/tie -> playoffs
New Orleans will have head-to-head tie-breaker over Tampa Bay if they end up tied at 10-7.
Tampa Bay has head-to-head tie-breaker over Atlanta.
There cannot be a three-way tie due to the Atlanta at New Orleans game in week 18.


Arizona
if lost in week 14:
win/tie -> playoffs

if tied in week 14:
win + LA Rams loss -> division champions
Arizona will have head-to-head tie-breaker of LA Rams.

if won in week 14:
win-> division champions
tie + LA Rams loss/tie -> division champions
loss + LA Rams loss -> division champions
Arizona will have head-to-head tie-breaker of LA Rams.



LA Rams
if won in week 14:
win + 2 of 3 from: Washington-Philadelphia tie, Minnesota loss/tie, Atlanta and/or New Orleans loss/tie -> playoffs

if tied in week 14:
win + Minnesota loss + Atlanta loss + New Orleans loss -> playoffs



Yeah, as mentioned, I am curious about what possible scenarios in the AFC could arise where New England, Tennessee and Kansas can clinch at least the playoffs in week 15. There are so many wild card hopefuls, yet so many games still to be played between them (20 by my count), that for all three just one more win could be sufficient, even without clinching the division, but it could require specific results in the week 15 games Cincinnati at Denver and Las Vegas at Cleveland, Kansas at LA Chargers and most likely at least requiring Miami to not win, Pittsburgh to lose, maybe Baltimore to lose... But my current spreadsheet isn't up to that task, It'll require another spreadsheet where I work out all the possible scenarios of those 20 games, which would Excel hopefully be able to calculate as it'll require 3^20 number of scenarios... I think I'm going to pass on that, for this week.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Bills fans (pregame) : "At least the one good thing is that there's no more painful way to lose then last week."

(Monkey's paw curls)

Bills Fans (Halftime): "At least there's no more painful way to lose than not showing up this week"

(monkey's paw curls)

Bills Fans (Start of OT): Yes! What heart by the team, there's no way we're going to lose now..

(monkey's paw curls, and ends up giving the middle finger to Bills fans)

I know a guy who bet 4 grand on the Bills +3.5...