1863 Season Preview & Playoff Odds

[Young Drachma]

So we head into another season of SLOP action, with this one being as opaque as the few. For a long time, SLOP was somewhat predictable. You had your dominant teams and your have-nots.

Then we had a few years of megaspend teams that would do anything for a title. But since the Carolina Kings claimed the title in '60, we've had year after year of bedlam. Since '59, we've had four different teams claim a Series (tm) title and if history is any indication, '63 will likely result in a fifth different team claiming atop the perch as champion of all the league.

SLOP welcomes two new franchises in Denver and Boston, which should add to the zanyness on both leagues.

With that, let's take a quick look around the league.

[Young Drachma]

Last season: N/A
Title odds: 5000-to-1

Welcome to SLOP, Boston faithful. These Blue Sox have nothing to do with the ones you might have seen in Milwaukee for two years. It's a completely different franchise.

This AL expansion club will no doubt take its lumps in the rough and tumble Associated League this year. But at least the fans there won't be completely bored. They've got rookie starlet CF A.J. Peters to watch on a daily basis. The first year player looks like a rare talent and should keep the hometown faithful buying jerseys and fearing the possibility that he'll someday be moved.

Otherwise, there won't be much to cheer about this first year in Beantown, but brighter days will be ahead with a metric ton of cap space and new ownership excited to make a splash in SLOP, we'll surely be hearing from this club sooner rather than later.

But not this year.

PREDICTION: 34-128 (9th place, AL)

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 85-77, 2nd NL (Lost in NLES to Carolina)
Title Odds: 7-1
The Titans are the Dr. Jekyll of SLOP. You never know whether you'll get a playoff team or an underachieving 5th place ballclub with these guys. '63 should be no different, really. With the NL featuring no less than 5-6 teams that could vying for a playoff spot annually, you have to think these guys are going to be part of any conversation.

They have a solid 1-2-3 order in the rotation with rookie sensationNils Lundqvist prepping to make his ML debut this season. Offensively is where this team is far more suspect. Outside of veteran Tristan Farrell and upstart CF Dusty Kelly, this team lacks the deep backs of its opponents. Still, Brooklyn has always been known for its pitching and with Carlos Sanchez, Bill Powell and the aforementioned Lundqvist, you can't hate this team.

They might struggle to pound the ball, but with top class pitching, anything is possible.

PREDICTION: 97-65 (2nd place, NL)

[Young Drachma]

Last Season: 83-30 3rd NL (Lost in Sunset Series to Winnemucca)
Title Odds: 15-1

The Cardiac Kings indeed. SLOP's most venerable playoff team pulled off what would've been the a miracle season before losing to the Mucks in the Series. Still, the defending NL champs went from a tiebreaker game all the way to the doorstep of a championship.

Their rotation is suspect, though solid. You have to wonder how many more years they can squeeze lemon out of the aging body of Johnny Ressano, but still, this is one of the most talented lineups -- and homegrown -- in all of SLOP. Marco Espada and Elvis O'Connor have been solid for this franchise for ages.

If Tommy Jackson has a big year or the team manages to make a deal at mid-season, they can hang with the contenders. But as it stands right now, it looks like the Kings are going to fall a bit short.

PREDICTION: 86-76 (5th place, NL)

[Young Drachma]

Last Season: 85-77, 4th place AL
Title Odds: 10-1

For years, I've been picking these guys to make the playoffs and do damage. And every year, they underachieve. But they've getting closer. After two 8th place finishes, a 6th place finish two years ago and knocking on the doorstep of the AL in 4th last year; you have to think the much improved Hornets are playoff bound in '63.

Except the team lost 17-game winner Jarrod Karnes this off-season and didn't replace him. There's no one on the farm that will be able to contribute and so, it'll take some luck and perhaps feasting on the bottom of the league to get these guys over the hump.

Brad Scots will need to return to 20-win form and T.J. Graber will need to have a monster year to get them over the hump, but they've got the 3rd best farm system in SLOP and so, there are some assets that could be dealt for talent if ownership decides it wants to go all-in for a playoff run this year.

I think at the end of the day, the Hornets are going to fall just short.

PREDICTION: 90-72 (4th place, AL)

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 89-73, 3rd place AL (Lost in ALES to Winnemucca)
Playoff Odds: 25-1

The Worker Bees surprised the whole world by making the playoffs last year, their first playoff appearance in franchise history. They were dispatched by Winnemucca, but still, a post-season appearance was borne out of career years from Al Gannon and Ron Prehn. The 2-3-4 order of Joey Dreyer, Brian Winter and Felix Maestas were just enough to put the Laborers.

PREDICTION: 82-80 (6th place, AL)

[Young Drachma]

Last season 75-87, 6th NL
Playoff Odds: 13-1

Two sixth place finishes might make you believe the Spiders aren't that good. But they're really close, they just need a bit more organic growth to really get themselves into playoff position. Dusty Disotell is the best pitcher in SLOP you've never heard of, logging seven complete games last year. Dave Renninger has been a stalwart since the Shem Creek days and the real issue with this team is what a lot of second-tier teams in SLOP are facing, it's a lack of consistent offensive production. Andre Knox had a rough year last year and that kind of dropoff will keep a team out of the playoff hunt.

Still if their pitching holds up and Jimmy Ziegler has a big year, this could be a surprise team in the NL. I'm not seeing it, though.

PREDICTION: 91-71 (4th place, NL)

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 80-82, 6th place AL
Playoff odds: 100-1

Poor Columbus. Every year, we get excited to see the Crusaders do big things. But look closely and see what TURNERONU22 is doing. They've got the #2 farm system in SLOP. They've been HUGE players in the FFP market and so, a quiet giant is building slowly and as such, the AL will be turned on its head in a few years when Columbus benefits from the new rules where players stay with their teams for a good while and well...you'll see a Crusaders dynasty coming down the pipe.

In the meantime, benefit from cheap tickets to see Orlando Armenta have another solid season and wonder if ownership will ever sell off some of its quality parts (Tommy Bonner, Ernie Powers, Adrien Childs) for future picks and other prizes that might be useful. Right now, draft picks are probably underrated in SLOP because people assume that FFP takes all of the quality guys out of the pool. But the pool skews older now and a first rounder has more value -- even a lower one -- than it did years ago. So for a team that decides to dive in, it might yield benefits.

Will Columbus be that club to bust up things Marlins style?

PREDICTION: 74-88, 7th place AL

[Young Drachma]

Last season: N/A
Playoff odds: 1000-1

Welcome the NL's newest expansion club, the Denver Crows. This is Denver's 3rd chance at a SLOP franchise. The Rough Riders played there and then the Aviators spent two years in town as the Dinosaurs. This is the first time they've had a club all their own.

You have to respect ownership for taking a flier on former NL all-star Shakil Sa'eed after St. Louis dumped him this off-season. Should he return to form back in the AL, they could sell him off at mid-season for something and if he doesn't ever get it back together, they've at least got a big ticket draw that fans will recognize.

Look out for top prospect 3B Pat Wright who should start on opening day and has a lot of talent that the rest of SLOP will be looking forward to seeing. Another roster standout is T.J. Moon .

It'll be a bumpy ride for the new club, but expansion teams don't stay babies long in SLOP. With a wallet full of cash and free agency and FFP looming, these Crows will be flying in no time.

PREDICTION: 44-118 (9th place, NL)

[Young Drachma]

Last year: 82-81 (4th place, NL)
Playoff odds: 3-5

After narrowly missing out on the playoffs last year -- ending their playoff streak at 2 -- the Gomers went out and reloaded on a huge contract on former San Diego center fielder Carlos Salazar with the hopes that his big bat would get them over the hump come playoff time. He immediately vaults to the highest VORP guy on their roster and I think should be enough; paired with the ensemble of Ponty Lopez and J.R. Harman of a playoff team.

Where this team has post-season problems is its rotation. Lacking a true #1 starter, Jamel Reid does an admirable job, but the hope is that 2nd year starter Fred Stone and Dave Beeman can have breakout years and propel this team to their first NL pennant.

PREDICTION: 105-57 (1st place, NL)

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 54-108 (8th place, NL)
Playoff odds: 2500-1

It's easy to forget that the Emeralds claimed a title just three seasons ago because it's been slim pickings ever since in paradise. Coming off an 8th place finish last year, the only saving grace this year is that there's a team worse than them to finish last.

Poor Jeremiah Bylerly toils in obscurity, but the fans love him for it. Otherwise, the Kauai faithful can look forward to the forays wolvie has taken on the FFP market and drafting -- few teams have that combo of high picks and FFP spending -- so you have to think that down the road the Emeralds will be able to sustain their winning.

But it'll take a while.

PREDICTION: 49-113 (8th, NL)

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 73-89, 7th
Playoff odds: 17-1

Two straight years, two straight AL pennants. The last two years haven't been so good to Subby's boys, as they've finished 7th in the AL two years in a row now. I'm not sure if anyone can put a finger on why though. Other than parity and a severe lack of pitching depth. Chris Ross toils away at the top of the rotation admirably. Clifton Marshall still hits the ball harder than almost anyone and last year, Jimmy Speegle hit 40 HRs for goodness sakes.

So what gives?

It's time to bring up AAA hurler Johnny Keating, because he might take some stress off the rest of the rotation and offer a semblance of talent in the process. Will it be enough to launch this team into the post-season? Probably not.

It's a shame too, because the Mobsters are easily one of SLOP's most talented offensive clubs and pretty much anyone would kill to have half their lineup, but there's just too much of a gap on the pitching end to compete with the top tier of the league.

Lucky for the Lake Tahoe faithful, the team swaps to the NL next year where I think their brand of baseball will fare a lot better. In the meantime, they'll just be rooting for a winning record and being in the hunt down the stretch.

PREDICTION: 85-77 (5th place, AL)

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 72-90 (8th place, AL)
Playoff odds: 6-1

After four straight years of no-playoffs in Memphis, Smokers fans are restless. The most venerable club in the AL simply isn't used to this with 13 playoff appearances and 3 titles in their SLOP history, it's understandable.

In an free agency period light on star talent, Jack Raden did a great job of acquiring lots of pieces to give the team depth that it lacked in the past. International free agent Alex Palacios was a huge, under the radar signing that should pay dividends and former 20-game winner Dave Bennett comes over from Brooklyn where he should be useful.

Offensively, the team's core stars remain -- Brian McDaniel, Fred Caldwell, Dave Cummings and rookie standout last year Robby Cole -- should be enough to propel the Smokers back to the post-season and end their drought.

PREDICTION: 92-70 (3rd place, AL)

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 64-98, 7th place NL
Playoff Odds: 100-1

The team boasting SLOP's best farm system is a quiet giant. After their first season in the books, the guts of the former Lake Placid franchise are plowing along in the NL waiting for their chance to rise.

They boast lots of names that the seasoned SLOP fan will know. Jimmy Ridgeway and newly minted $50m man David Richardson also joins the roster in the hopes they can pull off a shocker and advance to the post-season.

Despite the efforts of a veteran rotation including former Memphis toiler Yataro Arai, Carlos Machuca and Dave Bellman, this team will fall short of contender status another year. Still, they'll show improvement and are a team to watch going forward.

PREDICTION: 81-81 (6th place, NL)

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 80-82, 5th place NL
Playoff odds: 50-1

The Riders have a bonafide star in Pedro Garcia, Robby Braden is excellent and 1B Dave Bruck is a new star. But the story here is the same as it is so for so many clubs in SLOP's middle class and that's a lack of pitching. Except, Rio Grande has even less than the average contending team and that's going to torpedo any faint hopes of a post-season future for this team.

PREDICTION: 79-83 (7th place, NL)

[Gomer]

The gomers of Gettysburg are gettin giddy.

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 87-75, 1st NL (Lost in NLCS to Carolina Kings)
Playoff odds: 4-1

So the defending NL regular season champs have the same disease that Gettysburg has, in that, no matter what they do, they keep missing the playoffs. So claphamsa went out and picked up Dave Ribic in a steal of a deal to be his ace and bolstered his lineup with Michael Payne.

But the NL being the NL, there's really no telling whether that'll be enough or not.

My bet is they're able to make it out alive.

PREDICTION: 92-70, 3rd place NL

[claphamsa]

3rd place? you crazy!

[tg.carlssonootp]

Rio GM predicts record wins and a Championship. Sucka!

[tg.carlssonootp]

Anybody have any free pitching? If not I will have to adjust my prediction.

[Young Drachma]

After being deprived of a second straight trip to the Sunset Series last year, the Fathers bring back mostly the same team as last year. Losing Carlos Salazar will not be kind to this team, but D.J. Struchen softens that blow obviously as Salazar had not necessarily been considered the offensive focal point of the team since he showed up.

They'll need a big year from Melvin Jimenez to compensate and Dave Plummer will need to stay a strong contributor. If Jordan Santiago and Cris Luna have strong years, then the Fathers will be in the AL Wild card mix.

But that's a gigantic IF due to the loss in offensive production the team will boast this year.

PREDICTION: 85-77, 5th place AL

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 93-69, 1st place AL (Won Sunset Series over Carolina)
Playoff odds: 1-2

The Mucks streak of seven straight playoff appearances doesn't appear to be in jeopardy this year. Their solid starting core of Erik Doucet, Denis Sheehan and Dave Breglia seems impregnable. The next time someone complains about draft picks, remind them that Cruz Torres was a late 1st rounder and has turned out to be a useful cog in the wheel for the defending champs and the always solid J.J. Tullgren is back in this spot.

Long story short kids? Winnemucca seems positioned to return to the postseason once more.

PREDICTION: 118-44, 1st place AL

[Young Drachma]

Last season: 84-78, 5th place AL
Playoff odds: 2-1

Simply put, there's never been a team in the history of SLOP to ever make dramatic, wholesale changes on the doorstep of the season. Had I wrote this team preview just 72 hours ago, the roster I'd have reflected on would've been dramatically different than whatever you'll see now. The core might still be intact, but the fact is, D.C. has decided to go all-in with this team and whether it works or not -- he failed two years ago when the team lost in the ALCS -- is going to impact his legacy.

The pros and cons are stark. He deals his 3rd starter - an ace on most staffs - for an unproven catcher. Ok, fine. Then he makes a questionable deal sending a 20+ HR infielder for a middle reliever (Tommy Wallis)? Hmmm..not sure I get it.

Dealing the #1 pitching prospect in SLOP to Lake Tahoe for two of the best players in SLOP? (Chris Ross, Cliff Marshall) Ok, whatever.

This team underachieved last year. No question about that. But the asset selloff to acquire what one would hope is a playoff team better pay off or he'll be kicking himself next year and the year after when this team simply won't look the same as it does now.

But none of that matters right now. More than probably any team in SLOP, now is the only thing that's important in St. Louis and anything less than a title will be a massive disappointment. Only Kauai has ever been able to convert the "massive spending spree" into a championship in this modern era of SLOP.

If this team wins, it'll do so with the most expensive roster (at least $260m, depending on how much Pat Kenady's exploding FRANCHISE deal will cost them) in the history of SLOP. To be fair, a lot of that money is FFP contracts the team is carrying for this year only, so next year won't be as bad.

But still, this is an experiment that St. Louis can't keep doing and is the function of being bad for long enough to acquire talent and playing the FFP market pretty well too.

Will they have anything to show for it when the dust settles? We'll see.

PREDICTION: 101-61, 2nd place AL

[JonG]

5000-1? That seems generous.

And, after the first half, we're right on pace...

[Gomer]

I don't have time to read all this SLOP.
When's the draft?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Gomer

I don't have time to read all this SLOP.
When's the draft?

LOL.

Draft is after the playoffs. We'll probably just save it for Sunday or something.