Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Coffee I only included you because of your vote on a non-list person.

Not to be assholish, but what makes "the list" so all powerful?

[Barkeep49]

Yeah that's an A fucking OK reason. Like I said I couldn't be mroe pleased then to be cleared for a 12 hour cycle.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Not to be assholish, but what makes "the list" so all powerful?

Because by hook and crook we got a list of people who we can reasonably state got the same PM. Is it all Kosher how we got it? Not really but it's fucking out there and I think we're dumb not to use what we have before the info sours.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yeah that's an A fucking OK reason. Like I said I couldn't be mroe pleased then to be cleared for a 12 hour cycle.

Its not so much to clear you then to assure that qwikshot was bad...EVERYONE alive right now has fairly equal odds of being bad, clear or not...so knowing qwik was an original thing should give us a base to move forward instead of a random stab that leaves us in the same boat tomorrow were in today if you take the odds.

[hoopsguy]

Blade, I'm fine with whatever course you want to take in pursuing me this game since getting the most votes doesn't mean instant death. But I would rather we get a Thing on the first try so we can take a stab at another Thing on attempt #2 for the day. With that in mind, I would prefer not to be tested. I recognize that I'm always a top suspect, until proven otherwise, with you in these games and I'm fine with that.

I am surprised that Raiders has gotten multiple votes at this point - I have to believe that people are trying to get the convert without explicit knowledge that a conversion has taken place (seems like a bad strategy). Or that someone has access to more information than I do, which makes them comfortable going down this path (better strategy).

Here is my relative level of worry at this point:
1.) Coffee Warlord - early Day 2 vote for Raiders (talked about this above), general sense of unease with people who express trust in me early in games - possibly because it happens so rarely
2.) Saldana - vociferous attack on Raiders after the brilliant thing came out
3.) Barkeep - I can come up with a scenario where he is playing very aggressive early as the Things attempt to build their numbers. But this seems overly elaborate and doesn't fit with my impressions of his play from previous games
4.) Jeeber - converting the known good ASAP makes sense to me

This list is very subject to change after today - if we don't see any evidence of a conversion during Night 2 then I'm much more worried about how the end game plays out. And I think I'll look harder at deceptive players like Dubb and Blade. But for now I'm looking primarily at the list above.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Because by hook and crook we got a list of people who we can reasonably state got the same PM. Is it all Kosher how we got it? Not really but it's fucking out there and I think we're dumb not to use what we have before the info sours.

And why are you and hoops not on that list of 6? The list, as you stated, was people cleared by the brilliant thing. You were not, and i dont believe hoops was(he commented, but as dubb stated at the time he didnt do anything to clear himself, or reveal any other info.). Just wondering why these omissions were made if you want your list to be legit

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, I'm fine with whatever course you want to take in pursuing me this game since getting the most votes doesn't mean instant death.

Dubb seemed to feel the same way...its not that you did anything to earn it, but more so since im not trusting of barkeep yet and he seems overly ready to add you to the cleared list when you didnt do anything to merit it other then agree with raiders. Your play so far has been totally norm, but barkeeps trust of you is worth watching to me.

If i was a wolf, i would have converted someone like WVU or Anxiety last night...just like i expected they arent even being looked at..BUT, often times wolves do exactly the opposite of what i would do, so i dont know...just saying i dont think hoops/barkeep/dubb/raiders/jeeber were converts...id go under the radar at first just to build #s

[Barkeep49]

So Blade the more I think about it the more you're right. I just can't stomache not trying to find a Thing so my vote will not come to me, but I agree that the rest of you fuckers should seriously decide if finding out that I'm on the up and up about Qwik being a thing is worth it. It's not like there's much of anything there in terms of people dealing with him, but sure if that would make people sleep better at night I can understand the logic.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So Blade the more I think about it the more you're right. I just can't stomache not trying to find a Thing so my vote will not come to me, but I agree that the rest of you fuckers should seriously decide if finding out that I'm on the up and up about Qwik being a thing is worth it. It's not like there's much of anything there in terms of people dealing with him, but sure if that would make people sleep better at night I can understand the logic.

Well, assuming we take a stab at your list and trust qwik was bad we have at best a 1/6-2/6 chance your saying? And if we miss, we have exactly the same odds tomorrow due to conversion threat...so i just wonder short of getting lucky how it improves our situation. Any ideas?

[hoopsguy]

Blade, I agree with your logic on targeting a lower profile player, but with one additional reason - by ignoring the "brilliant bloc" they have a better chance of hitting a special role with a convert. Add in the inherent suspicion of the higher profile players alive and I think that is definitely the way I would play it as a Thing.

By the way, I just went back to "the list" and I think Barkeep mis-counted when he said 8 since I saw nine names there. I argued to cross two of them off (Dubb and Cronin) which dropped the list to seven, not six.

The seven (listed in the order Barkeep had them in post #292):
1. tanglewood
2. path12
3. saldana
4. mckerney
5. coffee warlord
6. anxiety
7. wvufan

[Barkeep49]

See by tomorrow there could have been 2 conversions. Today at worse we have 1. I think today the odds of finding someone outside the list is worse then 1/6.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

See by tomorrow there could have been 2 conversions. Today at worse we have 1. I think today the odds of finding someone outside the list is worse then 1/6.

Ok, so its basically come down for me to comparing the odds of hitting a random person and getting lucky, or the odds of you bluffing and hoping the qwikshot thing would clear you(the aggressive play might have been in response to fear over the brilliant thing). Just thinking out loud before i leave.

Hoops, i agree with you here...still thinking as i leave for class now

[Barkeep49]

Well it's good to know I can't fucking count. Good thing my skills lie in other areas.

[saldana]

allow me to elaborate a bit on why i voted for raiders.

1. i always find fault with his logic, his accusation of me in this game is no exception, as i think i have already shown

2. i was a little annoyed that he announced the brilliant thing so freaking fast...if you notice a code that allows you to build a circle of trust...why announce it...why not keep it under your hat on the chance that others havent noticed it(which i did), so that you have a group you can trust that may or may not be public knowledge. thats not something a scientist would do, imo. if we remember the lost game, that time, the code stayed hidden for 3 days, and ended up being a complete road map to the others...this time, it got pulled into the open so fast that it isnt nearly as damning.....imo, only a thing would have wanted that exposed so fast.

my vote stays where it is.

barkeep, i don't know what to tell you as far as your suspicions of me go, i dont really understand them other than you are supporting RA from yesterday

[hoopsguy]

The other part to consider is that there may not have been a conversion last night. Or (remote possibility) that Qwikshot was converted prior to Barkeep killing him - strange things like that seem to happen in werewolf all the time, especially to first-time moderators

But that is a big part of why I want to go for an original instead of shooting for a convert - because we don't know if a conversion took place last night or not.

Barkeep, not asking you to share PMs or anything like that, but do you think you would know if you killed an original Thing as opposed to a freshly minted convert?

[Barkeep49]

I don't think I'd have had any sort of idea about that hoops.

Saldana you claim it's good to keep the code quiet so it's useful and then don't use it yourself when you supposedly saw it? Come on you can do better then that.

[saldana]

and since so much is being made of the list, lets please acknowledge who made the list in the first place...me...and i included myself because i know i have nothing to hide, but realize i have to prove it.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I don't think I'd have had any sort of idea about that hoops.

Saldana you claim it's good to keep the code quiet so it's useful and then don't use it yourself when you supposedly saw it? Come on you can do better then that.

when did i ignore it?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by saldana

and since so much is being made of the list, lets please acknowledge who made the list in the first place...me...and i included myself because i know i have nothing to hide, but realize i have to prove it.

Actually FWIW when I was making my list I went off of what Blade had posted with his recount of the discussion.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by saldana

when did i ignore it?

You said you realized the brilliance code. Why didn't you get in on that action then? I mean I agree we shouldn't shout it from roof tops but there were ways for you to have done it, if you were truly in the know.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

You said you realized the brilliance code. Why didn't you get in on that action then? I mean I agree we shouldn't shout it from roof tops but there were ways for you to have done it, if you were truly in the know.

if you go back and look at when i posted my "regular" post, it was after swaggs' comment, which game before the Game Post 1, and after blades'. it wasnt until raiders made his much more obvious comment "simple, but brilliant scientist" that it set off bells and i went back and reread the entire game and noticed the pattern. if i had come back and posted about my brilliance at that point, it would have looked very obvious, more so than raiders, and i didnt want to draw attention to it.

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, fwiw it was Dubb who validated the "simple" part of the message as well as the "brilliant" which Raiders was the first to use publicly to clear someone.

Raiders - post #123

Simple, but extremely brilliant scientist checking in.

Raiders - post #174

FWIW, I feel about as good about Blade as I feel as bad about saldana. Blade said that he was brilliant like me.

Me - post #180

Raiders, if we are coming out with the "brilliant" bit then you actually missed someone who said it - Swaggs.

Dubb - post #183 (note - posted in its entirety so I'm not accused of shaping posts casting suspicion on me)

Actually I think this hurts you a little in my book Hoopsguy. If you don't quite get the "brilliant" blurb, that leads me to believe you didn't get a simliar PM to what some of the rest of us got. It refers to us as simple, but brilliant . I didn't want to bring that up, but since it is already out in the open I see no problem with it.

What you quoted has nothing to do with that.

Saldana - post #185 (long post, just including his list and commentary)

so then, everyone that didnt say "brilliant" in their check in posts must be a thing....that means that anyone that said "regular", "clean", "simple" or just "scientist" must be a thing.....outstanding logic...by this reasoning, the following is a list of the things:

tanglewood - just said scientist
mckerney - just said scientist
hoops - just said scientist
wfu - said clean scientist
jeebs - said he was clean
path - said he was a thespian
saldana - said he was regular


this doesnt even account for the people that didnt say anything, used the word brilliant in another form, or didnt check in at all....nice logic...

[hoopsguy]

Here are what I have for the current vote counts:

Raiders - CW (252), Saldana (332)
JeeberD - Dubb (254)
Dubb - JeeberD (261), Anxiety (269)
Barkeep - Blade (282), Cronin (343)
Saldana - Barkeep (331)

I'm going to be out for most of the afternoon, but without any further evidence emerging between now and when I check in tonight I won't be voting for either Dubb or Raiders. Maybe Barkeep by following Blade's line of thought (makes sense, but right now I believe him and I don't want to lose a chance at a Thing today) but more likely CW or Saldana.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by saldana

as far as why i went back at RA so hard, history between us has me very wary of him....his little "i'm too drunk to read straight, but i ended up being right" nonsense from the lost game has me a little bit defensive when he starts pointing fingers.

LOL. That was great!

Anyhow, again my suspicion of you was not much at all. Enough for a day 1 vote, but I'm not sure about a Day 2 vote based upon the whole "Regular" thing. Looking back, I worded my posts incorrectly; I was far less certain of you being a Thing than you thought I thought. Your reaction was a little strange, but whatever...

[Raiders Army]

VOTE SALDANA

Sorry man. I just don't follow your logic (but maybe that's because I'm illogical). I welcome any votes against me so I know I'm cleared; however, if I am cleared tonight, then it will waste a day of voting. I don't agree with voting for Barkeep, since he does seem to be on the level. You're on his list of six, so I'm going for you.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

LOL. That was great!

Anyhow, again my suspicion of you was not much at all. Enough for a day 1 vote, but I'm not sure about a Day 2 vote based upon the whole "Regular" thing. Looking back, I worded my posts incorrectly; I was far less certain of you being a Thing than you thought I thought. Your reaction was a little strange, but whatever...

i agree that my reaction was a bit strange...like i said earlier, its hard to realize in these "no death with the most votes" games that the most votes isnt necessarily a bad thing...i didnt want to die on day one, and keep forgetting that most votes doesnt equal death. (unless youre a thing, which i'm not)

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

VOTE SALDANA

You're on his list of six, so I'm going for you.

thats fine, i almost welcome it, since i did make myself a bit of a target on day 1 with my reaction (see post above this one). but can we please stop calling it HIS list....i wrote the damn list!!!


and you arent the only one with logic problems.

[Abe Sargent]

Can't have ties and I find Barkeep way too abusive.

Unvote Dubb

Vote Barkeep


-Anxiety

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by saldana

thats fine, i almost welcome it, since i did make myself a bit of a target on day 1 with my reaction (see post above this one). but can we please stop calling it HIS list....i wrote the damn list!!!


and you arent the only one with logic problems.

Do you mean the list of people who didnt check in under brilliant you made? We arent using that list, so stop arguing over it. Barkeep is going off a post he made in response to one of mine that had combined like 50 quotes...back to the game.

[path12]

I've got a bad tooth and am wrecked on Percoset today, so don't expect any logic to come with this:

VOTE JEEBER

[hoopsguy]

Cancelled meeting = afternoon that has opened up for werewolf.

Updated vote counts, as of Post #380:

Raiders - CW (252), Saldana (332)
JeeberD - Dubb (254), Path (380)
Dubb - JeeberD (261)
Barkeep - Blade (282), Cronin (343), Anxiety (378)
Saldana - Barkeep (331), Raiders (375)

[dubb93]

UNVOTE JEEBER

VOTE HOOPSGUY

I want to get an original thing, and I just really feel like Hoopsguy is, to take a phrase from Barkeep, cockslapping us.

[hoopsguy]

Dubb, you have about as much chance of getting an original thing with this vote as you did when it was on Jeebs.

Seriously, I think you are giving me too much credit for picking up on the "brilliant" thing - those things are very easy to pick up on when you have the message, but much more challenging when you don't. I had the PM, saw the message, but was keeping it close to the vest prior to Raiders spelling it out.

I'll look forward to cockslapping you guys if/when they convert me, but not before that time.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Dubb, you have about as much chance of getting an original thing with this vote as you did when it was on Jeebs.

Seriously, I think you are giving me too much credit for picking up on the "brilliant" thing - those things are very easy to pick up on when you have the message, but much more challenging when you don't. I had the PM, saw the message, but was keeping it close to the vest prior to Raiders spelling it out.

I'll look forward to cockslapping you guys if/when they convert me, but not before that time.

Oops someone is pissed

[mckerney]

Vote Saldana

Don't think that Barkeep is a thing, would rather go with testing saldana than raiders right now. Realize I'm moving it to a tie, but there's plenty of time left and I'll leave it up to others to break the tie, hopefully in favor of saldana being tested.

[hoopsguy]

Nah, not pissed at all. Just don't think that A = B in Dubbs stated goal and vote. But I recognize that everyone will interpret the 300 or so posts of information in a way that makes sense to them. And the penalty for accumulating votes isn't as harsh here as it normally is.

BTW, who is the dude in the pic?

I'll follow mckerney on his vote, since it doesn't look like my other candidate (Coffee Warlord) is generating much discussion up to this point.

VOTE SALDANA

[Coffee Warlord]

Unvote RA

[Coffee Warlord]

Something feels wrong here. I know I said I was pretty sure hoops was okay, but something seems wrong.

Vote Hoops

[hoopsguy]

Coffee, what seems wrong? That I thought your vote for Raiders made no sense? I've been trying to give you the benefit of the doubt on it, even going as far as to vote for the other guy who voted for him instead.

Updated votes, as of Post #388:
Raiders - Saldana (332)
JeeberD - Path (380)
Dubb - JeeberD (261)
Barkeep - Blade (282), Cronin (343), Anxiety (378)
Saldana - Barkeep (331), Raiders (375), mckerney (385), Hoopsguy (386)
Hoopsguy - Dubb (382), Coffee (388)

[st.cronin]

I still don't really have my head around this game. There are too many possibilities for special roles, plus something occured to me today that will probably make it next to impossible for the Things to lose (unless Schmidty thought of it as well, and inserted a balance).

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BTW, who is the dude in the pic?

The dude in the pic is Kurt Russel, star of "The Thing".

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I still don't really have my head around this game. There are too many possibilities for special roles, plus something occured to me today that will probably make it next to impossible for the Things to lose (unless Schmidty thought of it as well, and inserted a balance).

I agree that the rules as we know it mean a 90% for sure Thing win.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Coffee, what seems wrong? That I thought your vote for Raiders made no sense? I've been trying to give you the benefit of the doubt on it, even going as far as to vote for the other guy who voted for him instead.

I had good vibes from you to begin with, you said it scared you and made you worry about me more than anything. Which, to me, makes no sense. You are casting a lot of suspicion on someone I KNOW is kosher (me), for no particular reason. Some of your posts are just a wee bit out of character (I could be out of my mind on that last one, I acknowledge.)

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Oops someone is pissed

That's awesome. Had I not seen the movie this weekend, I wouldn't have gotten it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I had good vibes from you to begin with, you said it scared you and made you worry about me more than anything. Which, to me, makes no sense. You are casting a lot of suspicion on someone I KNOW is kosher (me), for no particular reason. Some of your posts are just a wee bit out of character (I could be out of my mind on that last one, I acknowledge.)

So last game when I pegged Hoops early on as a baddie I felt that there was an employment of his be useful without being useful tactic. I just don't see it here. What strikes you as different in his gameplay?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I had good vibes from you to begin with, you said it scared you and made you worry about me more than anything. Which, to me, makes no sense. You are casting a lot of suspicion on someone I KNOW is kosher (me), for no particular reason. Some of your posts are just a wee bit out of character (I could be out of my mind on that last one, I acknowledge.)

I didn't see him casting suspicion on you any more than anyone else, FWIW.

[Coffee Warlord]

Shrug. Gut feeling that I'm not going to vehemently support, because, as I said, I've got scant little to go on. Looking like my vote is going to be harmless today anyway. Die is cast to saldana.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by saldana

interesting, i always enjoy watching who the first person to put a second vote on someone is, especially iirc, you are usually one to avoid having your vote be significant on day one.

Just wondering, but weren't you the first person to put a second vote on someone?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Just wondering, but weren't you the first person to put a second vote on someone?

Ooops. It was Jeebs who put a second vote on dubb after st. cronin. Nevermind.

[hoopsguy]

Coffee, just to give you an example from this game on why I worry when people seem to sympathize with me early in werewolf games:

Post #190 - I ask Qwikshot to move his vote off of me because of the "brilliant" thing. He falls in line, is dead the next day as an apparent Thing (per Barkeep). This is after a complimentary out-of-game comment in Post #179.

Basically, I try to go into every game equally suspicious of everyone. If I have done something to earn trust, I hope to get it. If I haven't done something to really distinguish myself, I worry if trust seems too easily given. I know that Blade has commented on this in the past after feeling like he was maneuvered by wolves in past games.

It is in this sick and twisted way of thinking that I trust Dubb more when he is questioning me this game than I trust people who are nodding their head at my statements.

Now in terms of harping on your Raiders vote, I already had you on my semi-short list on Day 1. I had already started noting the "brilliant" stuff, as well as other comments from people that seemed to dovetail with my PM. I didn't have that info on you. This isn't damning, but it does put you on my list of players who are more scrutinized.

Beyond that, I start to put together what I consider a "relative threat" level of the players, with the intent to work harder on analyzing the guys I consider the biggest threats. So going into Day 2 I was already going to look at you. You then come out of the gates voting for someone that made very little sense to me. I asked you directly about it; you answered it. I shelved my concerns at the time when I heard that votes weren't going to take place this weekend.

Today I bring it back up because there was not much conversation at all. However, it doesn't seem like my concern resonated with the rest of the board. At that point, I'm pretty inclined to back-burner the issue. So I voted with the other guy who I consider equally suspicious.

The one thing that concerns me about voting Saldana instead of you (not that those are the only two choices, just the two I've spent the most time considering) is that if Saldana was a Thing why would he go after Raiders in such a direct fashion? I don't think that the Things are looking to draw attention; they have enough to worry about with no lynchings ever taking place. Their best bet is to survive and advance with conversions and night kills. I think Saldana is an experienced enough player to know this, although I've certainly applied the "he couldn't be dumb enough to do this" logic before and been burned by my analysis.