WW 100: Game over!

[Schmidty]

Vote J23

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

yeah sounds like whoever invented schizo should get a facepunch

I think the Schizo is extremely useful as a bodyguard mechanic, just the "seer" scans unfortunately are no better than chance.

[RendeR]

Bleh

[RendeR]

Dead.....Line?

[Danny]

Yes deadline

[Danny]

J23 is the lynch choice. He was the Ballot-Box Stuffer and a wolf!

CrimsonFox is night killed. He was the slut and a villager

[KWhit]

YAY!

[RendeR]

2 down 2 to go? or do we think there is only 1 more wolf?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by RendeR

2 down 2 to go? or do we think there is only 1 more wolf?

I would be shocked if there is only 1 left.

[Lathum]

Looking back through the votes Dubb stands out to me as having done a really good job of skimming under the radar. He's voted Saldana everyday except the day he was iced and today when it was obvious J23 was going down. Plus the fact he got in early on J23 makes me wonder...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Without doing the math(I hate math) my gut would say that 75% is a huge stretch.

I know I am probably wrong and this is all predicated on DV being a villager but....

So there are only 3 possibilities, 2 of them have hoops being a wolf.

DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf
DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf
DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager

in 2 of those scenarios, of 66% Hoops is a wolf.

[PurdueBrad]

Nicely done and Crimson Fox, nice first game with us. Well played.

[PurdueBrad]

Lathum, that is the same math I'm considering. Tomorrow should be interesting and I'll be around a lot more.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I know I am probably wrong and this is all predicated on DV being a villager but....

So there are only 3 possibilities, 2 of them have hoops being a wolf.

DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf
DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf
DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager

in 2 of those scenarios, of 66% Hoops is a wolf.

I don't think that's right though. Because DV said that Hoops came up wolf in his scan, right? So we can take out this result from your list above: DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager.

So we really have 2 possibilities:
DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf
DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf - means Hoops is a villager

So I think we're at a 50/50 chance of him being a wolf. But even before DV mentioned that he scanned him, I was leery of Hoops, so I'm willing to take a 50/50 shot and will likely be voting for Hoops tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Well, the odds would be 50/50 if we had an equal number of villagers and wolves. But we don't, or else the game would be over.

Like I said before, I understand the desire to take the easy out and pluck a wolf that way. But I would suggest that we have some new info available now that we've uncovered the second wolf - J23. Taking a look at his votes, in conjunction with Henry's, I'm guessing that we can start to make some sense of the first five or so days when we were striking out on the wolves.

That has to be a better plan of attack than the 0% option that it seems like people want to take tomorrow.

[Darth Vilus]

either way, whatever u guys say im voting hoops. i thought he was one before i even scanned him, which is why i scanned him.

and great job today btw

[hoopsguy]

Day 1 - I'm in a 5-4 runoff with DaddyTorgo. Henry is on DT, J23 does not put in his double vote. I had posted that I was going to move my vote, but I was unable to do so as the PC I was working on was having virus issues. If J23 and I are wolves together then I would have expected some support from him. But there was none at all.

Day 3 - there is a tie vote between KWhit and PurdueBrad. J23 has his double vote on KWhit and I have my vote on PB with the negated vote behind me on CrimsonFox. If J23 and I were wolves together would we have wanted to create a tie? Not likely.

I'll do a more detailed vote/post analysis tomorrow. But those are two instances this game where the idea of me as a wolf just doesn't make much sense. I would hope that there are more out there, but neither of our wolves are exactly prolific posters. I'm not expecting to find a ton of post content to help with this search. It will likely come down to voting records.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

either way, whatever u guys say im voting hoops. i thought he was one before i even scanned him, which is why i scanned him.

and great job today btw

I'm glad that you are applying a cool head and logic to this problem, DV.

[Darth Vilus]

Thanks, I appreciate that

[hoopsguy]

Darth, I'm not deliberately trying to pump you for information that you don't want to give but since you are bound and determined to lynch me I think I'm entitled to some back-and-forth ...

Have you scanned anyone as villager? Have you run witness on anyone yet? Or has every other day out of the six been some kind of bodyguard action?

It would seem that you might have options to provide support for other villagers based on your actions, even if it is only to suggest that someone was inactive for an evening.

I'm not trying to railroad you here; no one has challenged your claim of being the Schizo so I'm assuming you are. But I'm baffled by the way you are playing it, even if you weren't coming at me with bogus intel.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I know I am probably wrong and this is all predicated on DV being a villager but....

So there are only 3 possibilities, 2 of them have hoops being a wolf.

DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf
DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf
DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager

in 2 of those scenarios, of 66% Hoops is a wolf.

I'm not defending Hoops b/c for all I know he could be a wolf, I just have bigger suspects at this point, like Jackal/Schmidty who would fit right in with my 2 wolves left at this point logic, but even you have to realize that your third one here is out the window since he scanned as a wolf to DV. That means that best case is 50/50 that he is a wolf.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

J23 is the lynch choice. He was the Ballot-Box Stuffer and a wolf!

CrimsonFox is night killed. He was the slut and a villager

My work here is done, literally! Now bring it home, guys!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Nicely done and Crimson Fox, nice first game with us. Well played.

Thanks PB! It sure is a gutwrenching game. Go get that last wolf now!

[hoopsguy]

Good game, Crimson. You came up very big in both of the wolves we've landed.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by henry296

Finally caught up.

I fully undersand the risks I take given my schedule and don' faul anyone for voting for me. However, it also doesn' make me a wolf.

My trust list:

Lathum / Path - Horrible move by path if he was wolf.
Autumn - no counter reveal and known good role.
RealDeal - No reason to reveal even though could be wolf and EagleFan's theory is very good
EagleFan - I like his though process and willingness to reconsider
PurdueBrad / Kwhit - my gut feel is both are good. The tie was good fortunate for us.

Other players:
Saldana - Definitely has some type of role and worth savings for a couple of days.

Dubb - reveal as whiny bitch. Doesn't prove anything.

Hoops - He plays the same way as wolf or villager so I can't tell yet.

Therefore, based on making a vote that matters, I'm going to go with

VOTE RENDER

This is a post by Henry on page 14. I put the known good players in bolded green and assumed good (your's truly since I know what I am) in a different color green. I then put the remaining unknowns (sorry KWhit, you still fall here for me although I'm inclined to think you're good) in orange. So, I guess I'm wondering is what are the odds that Henry doesn't mention any wolves what-so-ever in this post about players. Odds are, a wolf would try to throw a touch of info or read on a fellow wolf in a post like this. I could very well be wrong, but I think, for me, this is one place to start.

In addition, KWhit, I get Lathum's math and I think he is correct. The way the seer/fake seer dynamic should work is:

DV scans Hoops and
A- DV is real seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf
B- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is villager
C- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf

I am inclined to say that this is a 2/3's or 66% shot.

[PurdueBrad]

Lathum and Path should be in the darker green above, that's my bad.

[PurdueBrad]

I'll throw an early vote out there but this is subject to change, particularly if I get enough time to do some full game vote analysis of the other 7 uncleared players (beyond Hoops and I, and then Lathum and Path).

vote Hoopsguy

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

In addition, KWhit, I get Lathum's math and I think he is correct. The way the seer/fake seer dynamic should work is:

DV scans Hoops and
A- DV is real seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf
B- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is villager
C- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf

I am inclined to say that this is a 2/3's or 66% shot.

I don't know how you can say that. That's just incorrect.

Originally Posted by Danny

Random die roll for which role, so there is an equal chance of getting each role on any given night. Seer scans work where wolf shows up wolf and villager shows up villager. False seer scans work where wolf shows up villager and villager shows up wolf.

So your C option is impossible based on Danny's post above. I'm fine with lynching Hoopsguy, but I don't want us to do it using inaccurate information. Personally, I think DV's scan is completely useless. It's entirely based upon whether he is being the seer or the fake seer. There is no third option.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Lathum and Path should be in the darker green above, that's my bad.

Why do you say Lathum and Path are Known good. We all assume they are, but it's never been proven, correct (it's possible I missed something).

It would be a bold move by Path to res Lathum and reveal if he was a wolf, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, right?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Why do you say Lathum and Path are Known good. We all assume they are, but it's never been proven, correct (it's possible I missed something).

It would be a bold move by Path to res Lathum and reveal if he was a wolf, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, right?

Looking at EF's last post in which he put them in his undoubted trust list. I'll dig up the post.

As for the math above, you are correct, I didn't see Danny's rules and assumed it was random. So that does take it down to 50/50.

[PurdueBrad]

I don't have time to dig up the exact post but here is a copy-paste of me quoting it earlier. I also thought it was interesting that he listed Lathum and Path as trusted before he listed his own name:

Originally Posted by EagleFan
Thinking out loud now....

We have:

Most Trusted: Lathum, path12, EagleFan (if I can't trust myself, who can I trust)

Close to Most Trusted (barring counter reveal): Autumn

Leaning towards good: KWhit, CrimsonFox, PurdueBrad

Reveals that mean nothing yet (could be either side): dubb93, RealDeal


Uncertain: The rest

[hoopsguy]

PB, you teach math, correct? I weep for our youth

Seriously, you are including an option in your math that cannot be realized. The "fake seer, hoops is a wolf" is not an option as I would have scanned villager in that case. Since he is saying I scanned wolf there are only two options.

You can argue that those options are weighted equally - each has an equal 1/6 chance of coming to Darth Vilus. So that would be 50/50.

Or you can argue that there although there is a 50/50 shot of DV getting seer or fake seer as a night action, the chances of scanning a wolf are not equal in a game with more villagers than wolves.

Either way, the odds are certainly not above 50%. I'll argue this one as a math question until I'm blue in the face in the postgame thread if people want to return to the topic when I'm no longer considered an interested party.

[hoopsguy]

As far as the EF scan, I haven't been able to figure out who he scanned because he has too many people trusted for the number of scans he was allowed. He was obviously mixing in some guesses along with his actual scans to try and throw off the wolves. I still think he scanned PB, but outside of that I'm not at all sure. I know KWhit has wanted to paint this in a way that suggests he has been scanned, but I'm less convinced of that than I was with PB.

I'll be working at a client today where I'm not sure what kind of Internet access I'll have. I'll be on as much as possible, but that number may be zero percent until I get home tonight.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

As far as the EF scan, I haven't been able to figure out who he scanned because he has too many people trusted for the number of scans he was allowed. He was obviously mixing in some guesses along with his actual scans to try and throw off the wolves. I still think he scanned PB, but outside of that I'm not at all sure. I know KWhit has wanted to paint this in a way that suggests he has been scanned, but I'm less convinced of that than I was with PB.

I'll be working at a client today where I'm not sure what kind of Internet access I'll have. I'll be on as much as possible, but that number may be zero percent until I get home tonight.

As I pointed out before, the reason I suspect I was scanned is a combination of these things:

EF voted for me on Day 2. He did it fairly early (putting only the 2nd vote on me). Presumably, he suspected me of being a wolf. Else, why would he vote for me?

The very next day, he puts me on his trusted list. Now, why would he have all of a sudden had such a drastic change of heart about me.

It makes sense to me that he scanned me.

And I would be a logical choice for a scan from him since he felt I had a good chance of being a wolf (since he voted for me).

True, he had me in the third category of trust, but I think if he would have put me any higher, it would have been an obvious sign that he was the seer - no one could have enough info on me at that point to think I was trusted. In fact, just the fact that PB and I were on the list at all may have been enough to make the wolves think he was the seer.

Personally, I think PB and I were both scanned.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

PB, you teach math, correct? I weep for our youth

I teach English (jerk!).

[KWhit]

This thread is dead.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Lathum]

vote the jackal

I would at least like to keep it close

[path12]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Personally, I think PB and I were both scanned.

I don't think so just because he's got Lathum and I on his top line with him. He only got two scans in before dying, right?

On another topic, I do want to engage DV a little more on his role, especially before putting a vote down on hoops.

Specifically, a recap of his night actions and reasonings for choosing the folks he has.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by path12

I don't think so just because he's got Lathum and I on his top line with him. He only got two scans in before dying, right?

Maybe, but I think he had you guys on the top line because it was the group's consensus at that point in time that you two guys were the most trusted. It would have been weird and obvious that he was the seer if he had a trust list without you two guys at the top.

Although it's entirely possible that he did scan you or Lathum. I just think that it's plausible that he did not scan either of you.

[The Jackal]

I would suggest that anyone voting for hoops consider his play apart from the "seer scan", including you DV. I might end up going that way today, but let's not base everything on that.

Hoops, who would you have near the top of your suspect list? A group of a few people is fine.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm going to try to compile a vote breakdown in the next forty minutes, otherwise I'll do it after school, of who all the remaining people voted for.

As for the ongoing debate about scans, it is my *belief* that Path was likely EF's day 1 scan, which is how he knew he could clear Lathum.

[CrimsonFox]

And now a musical interlude:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uoAJw9VFCk

[dubb93]

Someone present a case against Hoopsguy that leaves out the DV scan, b/c I refuse to consider that as evidence since as far as I'm concerned no matter who he scans there is a 50/50 shot he shows them as a wolf depending on if he rolls the real seer or the false seer and then their true roll. If no one can present a good case without that then I will be voting for Schmidty or Jackal.

[PurdueBrad]

These are days 1-4 (5 was the Saldana vote and 6 the J23, both of which went runaway I believe.

Path: Darth Vilus, J23, RendeR, henry

Hoopsguy: Path, PurdueBrad, RendeR, henry

Darth Vilus: Crimson Fox, J23, Real Deal, Hoopsguy

RendeR: Hoopsguy, KWhit, no vote, Saldana

Jackal: PurdueBrad, No Vote, Real Deal, KWhit

KWhit: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, no vote, henry

Lathum: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, PurdueBrad, CrimsonFox

Schmidty: Dubb, KWhit, Autumn, no vote

Dubb: No Vote, Saldana, Saldana, no vote

Ntn: No Vote, EagleFan, henry, henry
PurdueBrad: Hoops, KWhit, RealDeal, henry

[PurdueBrad]

The no votes above make analysis tough, especially when 6 of 11 have at least 1 no vote. I'll try to break this down some more as the afternoon goes on.

[hoopsguy]

My work schedule has me at a ton of different clients today, with heavy supervision. I'm not getting time to spend in the thread.

I would suggest that you guys carry on with the expectation that I'll have maybe 15-45 minutes this afternoon over the last two hours before the deadline. Will depend on traffic out of Chicago to my home and the mood of my kid when I get home.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

The no votes above make analysis tough, especially when 6 of 11 have at least 1 no vote. I'll try to break this down some more as the afternoon goes on.

My D4 no vote and KWhit's D3 no vote are due to Schmidty icing us. Schmidty admitted to this after we placed the mobster role on him due to process of elimination.

[PurdueBrad]

Voting record-wise, ntn and Path have the best records. As I continue to work with the assumption that Path is good, then he's playing a very solid game. ntn has done well for having been fairly quiet. It is easier for a wolf to compile a good voting record, which is something to remember.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

As I continue to work with the assumption that Path is good

Again if Path is bad then Lathum has to be bad. If Lathum is bad then Path has to bad. Those are absolutes. It is a stretch to think both of them are bad at this point I would say but if they both continue to hang around it is something that may need to be considered going forward.

[PurdueBrad]

Here is the same chart, with what I know to be true (and obviously we're all looking at the records through what are roles are):

Path: Darth Vilus, J23, RendeR, henry

Hoopsguy: Path, PurdueBrad, RendeR, henry

Darth Vilus: Crimson Fox, J23, Real Deal, Hoopsguy

RendeR: Hoopsguy, KWhit, no vote, Saldana

Jackal: PurdueBrad, No Vote, Real Deal, KWhit

KWhit: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, no vote, henry

Lathum: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, PurdueBrad, CrimsonFox

Schmidty: Dubb, KWhit, Autumn, no vote

Dubb: No Vote, Saldana, Saldana, no vote

Ntn: No Vote, EagleFan, henry, henry
PurdueBrad: Hoops, KWhit, RealDeal, henry

Lathum's record is brutal which leads me to believe that he's extra good.