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Old 01-11-2012, 08:46 PM   #51
molson
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
GROUP G

#7 Boise St. (MWC 11-1, 6-1)
Florida International (Sun Belt, 8-4, 5-3)
Western Michigan (MAC, 7-5, 5-3)
Central Michigan (MAC, 3-9, 2-6)
Miami, FL (ACC, 3-5, 6-6)
Tulsa (CUSA, 8-4, 7-1)

Week 1:
#7 Boise St. 55, Florida International 38
Western Michigan 35, Central Michigan 34
Miami 35, Tulsa 27

The Broncos gave up a lot of points, but beat FIU without too much trouble. The Broncos jumped out to a 24-6 early in the 2nd quarter, and were never seriously challenged. Boise St. got 4 TD plays of longer than 45 yards. Boise St. RB Doug Martin rushed for 189 yards and 3 TDs on 24 carries, and caught 3 passes for 29 yards and a TD....The MAC conference has performed pretty well in this tournament thus far, so the intrastate battle of Michigan could end up meaning a lot. Western Michigan got a 43-yard TD run at the very end of the first half to take a 21-17 at halftime. But Central Michigan dominated most of the second half. The Chippewas got two long TD drives in the third quarter, while keeping the Broncos off the scoreboard, to take a 31-21 lead. A Central Michigan FG early in the 4th quarter extended their lead to 34-21, and it looked like they'd cruise to victory. But Western Michigan finally got back on the scoreboard with 10:27 left in the game, with an 8 play, 71 yard drive that ended with a 16-yard TD run. The teams then traded punts. Central Michigan then drove into Western Michigan territory and attempted 36-yard FG that would have given them a 9-point lead with just 3:30 left. But the kicker missed, giving Western Michigan the ball, down 6. Western Michigan drove down the field, and got a 16-yard TD pass on 4th-down-and-11, with just 16 seconds left. That would be the winning TD. Western Michigan WR Jordan White caught 11 passes for 140 yards and 2 TDs. Central Michigan QB Ryan Radcliff threw for 416 yards and 3 TDs without an interception, and completed passes to 10 different receivers.....The Miami Hurricanes rally to beat Tulsa. Miami led 19-7 in the middle of the 2nd quarter, but a 31-yard Tulsa FG gave them a 27-26 lead with 7:38 left in the game. But just a couple of plays later, a 70-yard TD pass from Miami QB Jacory Harris to Tommy Streeter put Miami back on top, 32-27 (they missed the 2-point conversion). Tulsa got two more possessions, but they couldn't get the ball past midfield on either of them. Miami ends the game with a 46-yard FG for good measure - that was Jake Wieclaw's 5th made FG of the day.

Week 2:
#7 Boise St. 38, Western Michigan 21.
Miami 35, Florida International 28
Central Michigan 52, Tulsa 34

The Broncos solidify their spot by beating one of the week 1 winners, Western Michigan. The game was tied at 14 at halftime, but Boise St. got the first 10 points of the 3rd quarter, and Western Michigan never got closer than 7 points the rest of the way. The Broncos pulled away with 2 4th quarter Doug Martin TD runs. Overall, Doug Martin rushed for 138 yards and 2 TDs on 26 carries, and he also caught 4 passes for 33 yards and a TD.....FIU puts a scare into Miami but the Hurricanes survive. 2 short Kedrick Rhodes TD runs in the 2nd quarter put Florida International up 21-14 at halftime. Miami responded with 3 unanswered TDs in the 3rd and early 4th quarter. The Panthers got a very late TD to make the final margin only 7....Tulsa is in big trouble, as they drop to 0-2 with Boise St. still on the schedule. They were up 21-7 here early in the 2nd quarter before things fell apart. The Chippewas scored TDs on 5 of their next 6 possessions, and that was that. Central Michigan QB Ryan Radcliff threw for 322 yards and 6 TDs.

...

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Boise St. 2-0 (+34)
Miami 2-0 (+15)
Western Michigan 1-1 (-16)
Central Michigan 1-1 (+17)
Florida International 0-2 (-24)
Tulsa 0-2 (-26)

The group winner will probably come down to the Boise St. v. Miami, which we knew would likely happen going in. Western Michigan currently has the edge for the 3rd spot, since they own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Central Michigan, AND because they've already played Boise St. If they can beat Florida International and Tulsa, they're definitely in, but even winning one of those games might be enough. 4 MAC teams have already advanced to the next round, there's a good chance we'll get another one here between the two Michigan directional schools, unless Tulsa can turn it around very quickly.

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Old 01-11-2012, 11:40 PM   #52
molson
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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GROUP G

Week 3:
#7 Boise St. 49, Central Michigan 14
Florida International 31, Tulsa 10
Miami 34, Western Michigan 20

The Broncos put it all together and batter Central Michigan. Another huge day for Boise St RB Doug Martin, he gets 151 yards rushing and 2 TDs on 33 carries, and 5 catches for 64 yards receiving. By my count, that's 9 TDs in 3 games for him. Boise St. held the Chippewas to just 14 yards rushing on 31 carries, for an average of somewhere around 0.5 yards a carry.... Disappointing Tulsa slips further and loses to Florida International......Miami sets up next week's big meeting with Boise St. by handling Western Michigan. The game was tied at halftime but the Hurricanes dominated the 2nd half.

Week 4:
#7 Boise St. 46, Miami 28
Florida International 51, Central Michigan 3
Tulsa 34, Western Michigan 24

Boise St. is now on the verge of a 5-0 group run, as they convincingly defeat the Hurricanes. The Broncos never trailed. Boise St. RB Doug Martin does it again with his best game yet - 217 yards rushing and 4 TDs on 31 carries, and 5 catches for 45 yards receiving. 13 TDs in 4 games for Martin. Boise St. sacked Miami QB Jacory Harris 5 times, and didn't allow Kellen Moore to be sacked once....Florida International gives themselves a chance to advance going into the final week with a stunning demolition of Central Michigan.....Tulsa finally gets a win. The teams were tied at 24 entering the final quarter. But Western Michigan got only as far as the Tulsa 47-yard line in the final quarter, while Tulsa was able to get a FG, and then a 10-play, 91 yard TD drive.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Boise St. 4-0 (+87)
Miami 3-1 (+11)
Florida International 2-2 (+45)
Tulsa 1-3 (-37)
Western Michigan 1-3 (-40)
Central Michigan 1-3 (-66)

...

Week 5 matchups
#7 Boise St. v. Tulsa
Florida International v. Western Michigan
Central Michigan v. Miami

Boise St. has already clinched the #1 spot, since they own the tiebreaker with Miami. The Broncos are just looking for better seeding with a 5-0 record and strong point differential....Miami has clinched the #2 spot, because they own the tiebreaker with Florida International....The #3 spot is up for grabs. After the first two weeks, it looked like the MAC would get another team in, but that was before Central and Western Michigan went a combined 0-4 the last two weeks, while Florida International went 2-0. If FIU can beat Western Michigan, they're in. But if Western Michigan wins, then they're probably in. In that case, Western Michigan would win a tiebreaker with FIU, or a 3-way tiebreaker with FIU and Central Michigan - but if Tulsa somehow beats Boise St, and can bring their previous win over Western Michigan into a tiebreaker situation, then things would come down to point differential, where FIU appears to have the clear advantage.

Last edited by molson : 01-11-2012 at 11:45 PM.
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Old 01-12-2012, 12:23 AM   #53
molson
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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GROUP G

Week 5:
#7 Boise St 49, Tulsa 10
Florida International 49, Western Michigan 38
Miami 31, Central Michigan 23

The Broncos run the table, and get an easy win here against the Golden Hurricanes. This was all Boise St. right away, they were up 35-0 before halftime. 4 more TDs for Doug Martin (2 rushing, 2 receiving), that's 17 TDs in 5 games for him. Kellen Moore threw for 384 yards and 4 TDs....Florida International completes the comeback from the 0-2 start and and becomes the first Sun Belt team to advance to the next round. This one was back and forth, and Western Michigan led 38-35 entering the final quarter. Western Michigan had the chance to extend the lead but missed a 37-yard FG early in the 4th quarter. FIU took over and got an 11 play, 81 yard TD drive to take a 42-38 lead. Western Michigan had 3 more possessions in the game, which went: 3 and out, interception, interception. They only got as close as the FUI 43 yard line in the final quarter. FIU added a late FG for the final margin....Miami gets a win and moves to 4-1, which will give them a solid seed next round. Miami never trailed in their win against Central Michigan. Central Michigan QB Ryan Radcliff threw for 452 yards, but also 3 Interceptions and 0 TDs.
...

Final Group G Standings:

#1 Boise St. 5-0 (+126)
#2 Miami 4-1 (+19)
#3 Florida International 3-2 (+54)
#4 Western Michigan 1-4 (-49) (best win v. Central Michigan)
#5 Central Michigan 1-4 (-74)
#6 Tulsa 1-4 (-76)

Boise St. cruises through group play. Their 5-0, +126 resume puts them at #3 overall for the moment, behind only LSU and Alabama. Miami's 4-1 record will put them at near the top of the 2nd place teams in seeding for the next round. Florida International is the first Sun Belt team to advance, and they do it with a winning record and an impressive point differential. The Michigan schools end up going a combined 0-6 the last 3 weeks. Western Michigan "earns" the #4 spot by the virtue of their point differential (first tiebreaker was a wash because all 3 1-4 teams got their 1 win in that subgroup). Western Michigan's "best win" is against 5th place Central Michigan (Central Michigan earns the tiebreaker for the #5 spot due to their win against Tulsa). That win is not good enough to crack the top four wild card contenders, so Western Michigan is officially eliminated, along with Central Michigan and Tulsa. The 4 current top wild card contenders remain, through 7 of 20 groups:

(best loss in parenthesis, "best loss" is determined by group rank, then record, then point differential excluding game against wild card contender):

Cincinnati (v. Oklahoma St, #1 group ranking, 4-1, +147)
#4 Stanford (v. USC, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +63)
Arizona (v. Utah, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +22)
Bowling Green (v. Ohio St. #5 group ranking, 2-3, +3)
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:13 PM   #54
molson
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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GROUP H

#8 Kansas St. (Big 12, 10-2, 7-2)
#25 Auburn (SEC, 7-5, 4-4)
San Jose St. (WAC, 5-7, 3-4)
Illinois (Big 10, 6-6, 2-6)
Oregon St. (PAC-12, 3-9, 3-6)
Central Florida (CUSA, 5-7, 3-5)

Week 1:
#8 Kansas St. 30, #25 Auburn 10
San Jose St. 27, Illinois 19
Central Florida 34, Oregon St. 23

In our first group with two ranked teams, Kansas St. gets a big win over Auburn to kick things off. The Wildcats never trailed in this one. Kansas St. held Auburn to just 11 first downs, and 29 rushes on 23 carries. The Wildcats went almost all run - they rushed 77 times for 189 yards, and threw the ball only 9 times, for 150 yards. Kansas St. defensive back Nigel Malone had four interceptions. The Wildcats intercepted the Auburn QB 6 times overall.....San Jose St. with a modest upset (perhaps) of Illinois. The teams combined for 6 FGs. Illinois didn't get any offensive TDs, it's only TD game via a 46-yard interception return for a TD in the 2nd quarter. The Fighting Illini controlled the ball for 37 minutes and 42 seconds, they just couldn't get the ball into the end zone other than that one big defensive play.....Oregon St. is another mediocre (or worse) BCS team that goes down in week 1 to a non-BCS school, as they lose to Central Florida. UCF jumped out 21-0 in the first quarter behind a 40 yd interception return for a TD, and a 46-yard TD run. The Beavers fought back to make it 24-16 early in the 4th quarter. But the Knights got the ball back, got a FG, and picked off Oregon St's next pass, which eventually led to another TD. That was the ballgame. Beaver QB Sean Mannion was bad, he completed only 14 of 39 passes, and had 3 interceptions (though he did also have 3 passing TDs).

Week 2:
San Jose St. 35, #8 Kansas St. 27 (3 OTs)
Oregon St. 45, #25 Auburn 20
Illinois 22, Central Florida 10

Kansas St. got through their seemingly toughest opponent in the group (Auburn) and it looked like they'd cruise to 5-0, but they get upended in our first OT game of the tournament, by now 2-0 San Jose St. San Jose St. led 17-7 halfway through the third quarter, but Kansas St was able to keep the Spartans off the scoreboard for the rest of regulation. Kansas St. got a 42-yard TD run late in the 3rd quarter to make it a 3 point game. Kansas St. had a shot to tie the game with 8 minutes left, but missed a 43 yd. FG. After the teams exchanged punts, San Jose St. had a chance to go up 6 with 2 minutes left, but missed a 39 yard FG. So Kansas St. started at its own 22, down 3, with 2:03 left. They got 47 yards in 10 plays, and nailed a 43-yard FG as time expired to send the game to OT. In the first OT, both teams settled for short FGs. In the 2nd OT, Kansas St. scored a TD on their 4th play, and San Jose St. scored a TD on their 3rd play. San Jose St. then scored a TD on their 4th play of the 3rd OT. It being the third OT, they had to go for 2, and they converted, to go up by 8, 35-27. Kansas St. then went four and out, and the game was over. Kansas St put up more crazy rushing stats in this one - 79 carries for 345 yards. They attempted only 7 passes.....Oregon St. stuns Auburn, so both ranked teams in the group go down in week 2, as chaos reigns in group H. The Beavers jumped out quickly, they got a first quarter rushing TD, forced Auburn to punt, and then returned the punt 69 yards for another TD. The teams alternated TDs early in the 2nd quarter. At halftime, Auburn had chipped away some of the lead, it was 24-14 Oregon St. Auburn got FGs on two consecutive 3rd quarter possessions to make it 24-20 Oregon St. entering the final quarter. But the Beavers dominated in the 4th. Auburn couldn't get a single first down in the quarter, while Beaver QB Sean Mannion threw two 43 yard TDs to Brandin Cooks on consecutive possessions. A 1-yard Beaver TD run at the end of the game capped the scoring. Auburn QB Barrett Trotter struggled, completing only 21 of 51 passes with 4 interceptions (and 2 TDs)....Illinois gets their first win and Central Florida is unable to knock off a second mediocre BCS team in two weeks. Illinois attempted 7 FGs in this game, and made 5 of them. Illinois stopped the UCF passing game - UCF QB Jeff Godfrey completed only 9 of 30 passes for 1 TD and 2 interceptions.

...

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

San Jose St. 2-0 (+16)
Kansas St. 1-1 (+12)
Oregon St. 1-1 (+14)
Illinois 1-1 (+4)
Central Florida 1-1 (-1)
Auburn 0-2 (-45)

Great start for San Jose St, not only are they 2-0, but they've already gotten past Kansas St. They're the first WAC team to compete, and they might be the first one to advance to the next round - 1 more win might do it. For Kansas St, it was a disappointing loss, but their win against Auburn was probably more important than their loss to San Jose St. - if they can win even 2 against their last 3 games v. Central Florida/Illinois/Oregon St, they're probably in, and if they win all three, they have a great chance to still win the group. Speaking of Central Florida/Illinois/Oregon St, I'm not sure what to make of that trio, they're all 1-1, they all still have to deal with Kansas St, but Auburn's slide as improved all of their chances to get in with one or two more big wins. Auburn isn't just disappointing because of the 0-2 start, they were blasted both times. With the parody in this group though, they have time to recover.
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Old 01-16-2012, 07:36 PM   #55
molson
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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GROUP H

Week 3:
Illinois 17, #8 Kansas St 6
Central Florida 38, #25 Auburn 13
Oregon St. 38, San Jose St. 27

#8 Kansas St. slips up again and can now start sweating about advancement. The Wildcats couldn't score a TD. Their passing game was again non-existent, they attempted only 8 passes, but were sacked 5 times. So Illinois sacked Kansas St. QB Collin Klein almost 40% of the times he dropped back to pass. Other than the Wildcats' two FGs, they didn't get further than the Illinois 39-yard line the entire game. Illinois couldn't do much on offense either, they only got 13 first downs, and were just 1 out of 12 on third down conversions. Still, their 17 points were more than enough.....Central Florida with a stunning blowout of #25 Auburn, who falls to 0-3. The Knights really pulled away in the 4th quarter, when they got 3 unanswered TDs. The Knights held Auburn to just 33 yards rushing on 27 carries....With the disappointing play of the group's two ranked teams, San Jose St. had a real chance to pull away from the pack and move to 3-0, but they lose to Oregon St. The Beavers had a 28-point 2nd quarter, capped off by a 74-yard punt return just before halftime, that put them up 28-13. San Jose chipped away at the lead in the 2nd half, and got within 7 points late, but then Oregon St. scored on their next possession and that was the game.

Week 4:
Oregon St. 24, #8 Kansas St. 7
#25 Auburn 35, Illinois 13
San Jose St. 38, Central Florida 24

Ouch, the #8 Wildcats drop their third straight in the group with another weak offensive outing. The Wildcats only got the ball past midfield twice the entire game, once on their lone TD drive, and once just to the Oregon St. 44 before they punted. The Beavers missed 4 FGs, but Kansas couldn't do enough on offense to make it matter....Auburn finally gets their first win, and with the parity in this group, they might still have a chance to advance. The teams were scoreless until halfway through the 2nd quarter when Illinois got a FG to go up 3-0. But then Auburn scored the next 28 points to take control of the game. Auburn again couldn't run the ball, they got only 16 yards rushing on 30 carries, but they did torch Illinois through the air - 446 yards passing and 5 passing TDs for Barrett Trotter....In a critical matchup of 2-1 teams, San Jose St. beats Central Florida. The San Jose St. Spartans led 24-3 early in the 2nd half. UCF did make it closer with three passing TDs (one a 91-yard passing TD), but they couldn't stop San Jose St from from responding with TDs of their own.

....

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Oregon St. 3-1 (+42)
San Jose St. 3-1 (+19)
Central Florida 2-2 (+10)
Illinois 2-2 (-7)
Kansas St. 1-3 (-16)
Auburn 1-3 (-48)

....

Week 5 matchups:
#8 Kansas St. v. Central Florida
#25 Auburn v. San Jose St.
Illinois v. Oregon St.

This is the first group to feature 2 ranked teams, and in this wacky group, both of those teams are already eliminated from top-3 placement. Even if either team wins, and Central Florida and Illinois both lose, either team would lose a multi-team tiebreaker against Illinois. In fact, it appears both teams are eliminated from even wild card consideration. If Kansas St. wins, they do lock down the #4 spot, but their "best win" wouldn't be very good, they will have only beaten Central Florida and Auburn, two teams that aren't advancing either. Oregon St., surprisingly, controls their own destiny, if they beat Illinois week 5, they win the group. If the Beavers lose, that opens the door for San Jose St, who would then win the group if they can beat Auburn. If they both lose, then one of them will still end up winning the group - Oregon Stlikely wins any Oregon St/San Jose St./Illinois tiebreaker thanks to point differential, and San Jose St probably wins an Oregon St/San Jose St/Illinois/Central Florida tiebreaker. As far as cracking the top 3 and advancing, there are too many scenarios to list here, but for everyone besides Auburn and Kansas St, it's win, and they're in.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:15 PM   #56
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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GROUP H

Week 5
#8 Kansas St. 14, Central Florida 9
#25 Auburn 31, San Jose St. 12
Oregon St. 44, Illinois 23

Kansas St. closes things out with yet another poor offensive performance, but this time, the defense comes up strong. Kansas St. went up 14-6 late in the 1st quarter, and then the teams combined for 8 consecutive possessions that ended in a punt. UCF finally broke that drought with a FG with 12:37 left in the game to cut the Wildcat lead to 5. But the teams traded punts again until there was under 3 minutes left. Central Florida was then in 4-down territory - they got to the Wildcat 21 but couldn't convert a 4th and 7, then after forcing a Wildcat put, they got down to the Kansas St. 11 yard line before running out of time. Kansas St. managed only 8 1st downs the entire game, but somehow pulled out the win....#25 Auburn wins their 2nd straight, but that won't be enough to overcome the 0-3 start. The Tigers jumped out to a 24-point lead early in the 2nd quarter. San Jose St. responded with 4 unanswered FGs to cut the Tiger lead to 12, but they wouldn't get any closer....Oregon St. wins the group by handily beating Illinois. Illinois actually led 23-13 with 4:39 left in the 3rd quarter. But the Beavers dominated the game after that. Illinois didn't get a single first down the rest of the game, while Oregon St. scored on 5 of their final 6 possessions (4 TDs, and 1 FG).

....

Final Group H Standings:

#1 Oregon St. 4-1 (+63)
#2 San Jose St. 3-2 (0)
#3 Illinois 2-3 (-28)
#4 Kansas St. 2-3 (-11)
#5 Central Florida 2-3 (+5)
#6 Auburn 2-3 (-29)

While Pac-12 teams Washington, Arizona St, and Colorado have already been eliminated, and #4 Stanford and Arizona are waiting around in hopes of nabbing a wild card, Oregon St. wins Group H and advances to Stage II, where they will earn a favorable matchup. San Jose St. also surprises, and is the first team to advance from the WAC - their 3 OT win against Kansas St. put them over the top. Then, chaos, as the other 4 teams finish tied at 2-3. Head-to-head, within that group of 4 teams, Illinois and Kansas St finished 2-1, and Central Florida and Auburn finish 1-2. So Central Florida and Auburn drop out, and Illinois defeated Kansas St. head-to-head - so Illinois earns the #3 spot and a ticket to the next round. That leaves Central Florida, Kansas St, and Auburn tied for spot #4. Kansas St. earns the #4 spot because they beat both Central Florida and Auburn head-to-head. Central Florida beat Auburn head-to-head, so UCF is #5, and Auburn #6. Kansas St's best win was against Central Florida. UCF finished #5, with a 2-3 W/L record, and a point differential of +10 when it's loss to Kansas St. is excluded. That does beat out the best win of the current #4 team in the wild card standings, Bowling Green, by 5 points in the 3rd tiebreaker of point differential. So #8 Kansas St. remains alive, though that "best win" is very likely not to hold up. Bowling Green, Central Florida, and Auburn are all officially eliminated - Auburn becomes the first ranked team to be sent home (2 other ranked teams remain in wild card contention)

Current top 4 in wild card standings:
(best loss in parenthesis, "best loss" is determined by group rank, then record, then point differential excluding game against wild card contender):

Cincinnati (v. Oklahoma St, #1 group ranking, 4-1, +147)
#4 Stanford (v. USC, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +63)
Arizona (v. Utah, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +22)
#8 Kansas St (v. Central Florida, #5 group ranking, 2-3, +10)

Last edited by molson : 01-25-2012 at 11:01 PM.
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Old 01-25-2012, 11:17 PM   #57
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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GROUP I

#9 South Carolina (SEC 6-2, 10-2)
#24 Texas (Big 12, 7-5, 4-5)
Louisiana Tech (WAC, 8-4, 6-1)
Florida (SEC, 6-6, 3-5)
Wake Forest (ACC, 6-6, 5-3)
Virginia (ACC, 8-4, 5-3)

Week 1:
#24 Texas 41, #9 South Carolina 10
Florida 30, Louisiana Tech 15
Virginia 38, Wake Forest 16

Dominating win for Texas against the Gamecocks. It wouldn't be such a huge deal for South Carolina if this group wasn't so tough, it certainly won't be a cakewalk for them just to advance. Texas scored on 5 of their first 6 possessions to go up 27-0 early in the 2nd quarter. During that stretch, Texas picked off a South Carolina pass and had a huge punt return down to the Gamecock 10 yard line. Texas sacked Gamecock QB Connor Shaw 4 times, and didn't allow a sack of their own QB.....The Florida Gators beat the only non-BCS team in the group - I suppose LA Tech is the one win everybody else can probably count on, but LA Tech did have a good season in the WAC. Florida led 10-0 early and never trailed. The Bulldogs got within 8 points in the 3rd quarter, but the Gators got a TD on their next possession, and the Bulldogs never got closer....Virginia gets an impressive win against a evenly-matched-on-paper Wake Forest team. Things started well for Wake Forest, they forced 3 Virginia punts early while getting 2 FGs, so they led 6-0 early in the 2nd quarter. But the Cavaliers took over, scoring 5 times in their next 6 possessions, and outscoring Wake 31-7 over that stretch. Virginia QB Michael Rocco went 22-for-29 for 244 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 interceptions. The Virginia defense forced 5 Wake Forest turnovers, while not turning the ball over once themselves.

Week 2:
Louisiana Tech 47, #9 South Carolina 3
#24 Texas 41, Wake Forest 12
Florida 42, Virginia 24

In the most surprising result of the tournament thus far, by far, Louisiana Tech destroys South Carolina by 44. I had to do a couple of double takes on this one, make sure I didn't sim LSU or South Carolina St. by mistake, but no, this was the legit result. Just a crazy result here, as South Carolina St. is now in big danger of not advancing. The Gamecocks committed 5 turnovers, and were only 2-for-16 on 3rd down conversions. LA Tech had 509 yard of total offense, v. 326 for South Carolina. The game could have actually been even more lopsided, as the LA Tech kicker missed 3 field goals. Bulldog RB Hunter Lee ran for 117 yards and 2 TDs on 13 carries, and caught 2 passes for 44 yards and a receiving TD......The upset bug does not bite Texas, who rolls easily past Wake Forest. Wake trailed only 17-12 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, but the Longhorns outscored Wake 24-0 the rest of the way. Texas RB Malcolm Brown rushed for 174 yards and 3 TDs on 22 carries.....In a battle of week 1 winners, Florida beats Virginia. The Gators took control early and led 28-3 early in the 3rd quarter before the Cavaliers made the score somewhat respectable. The Gator defense held Virginia to just 20 yards rushing on 36 carries, and won pretty easily despite losing the turnover battle 5-2.

.....

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Texas 2-0 (+60)
Florida 2-0 (+33)
Louisiana Tech 1-1 (+29)
Virginia 1-1 (+4)
Wake Forest 0-2 (-51)
South Carolina 0-2 (-75)

The big story here is obviously #9 South Carolina not showing up the first two weeks and putting themselves in a big hole. They probably need to win three straight against Wake, Virginia, and Florida to advance, and that will be no easy task. LA Tech was on the other side of that stunner, and it's not like they did anything week 1 to show this was coming. They are the mystery team here, the non-BCS representative that did very well in their non-BCS conference, trying to hang in there with the big boys. They have made things interesting. Great start for Florida, they still have Texas and South Carolina on their schedule, but even if they just beat Wake, they'll probably advance.

Last edited by molson : 01-26-2012 at 11:19 PM.
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Old 01-26-2012, 11:45 PM   #58
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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GROUP I

Week 3:
Florida 34, #9 South Carolina 13
#24 Texas 40, Virginia 6
Louisiana Tech 37, Wake Forest 20

South Carolina becomes the second ranked team, after Auburn in the last group, to start 0-3 in the group. They're also almost guaranteed now to follow Auburn as the second ranked team to be eliminated. The Gators jumped out 24-0 early in the 2nd quarter and were never seriously challenged. The Gamecocks didn't get their first TD until there were 2 minutes left in the game.....As disappointing as South Carolina has been, Texas has been just as impressive and then some - here they destroy Virginia for their 3rd straight blowout. If they can run the table in this group, they'll be looking at a top 5 seeding in the next round with their strong point differential.....Big win for LA Tech against Wake. The Bulldogs led by 7 at halftime, but pulled away in the 3rd quarter with 10 unanswered points.

Week 4:
#9 South Carolina 40, Wake Forest 10
Florida 37, #24 Texas 9
Louisiana Tech 23, Virginia 13

It's probably too late, but the Gamecocks finally show up in week 4, and drop Wake to 0-4. South Carolina led 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and never looked back. South Carolina rushed for 311 yards, v. only 84 yards rushing for Wake Forest. South Carolina RB Brandon Wilds rushed for 166 yards and a TD on 19 carries, and caught 2 passes for 44 yards and a receiving TD.....#24 Texas has looked unbeatable to this point, but in a big upset, Florida moves to 4-0 and takes control of the group by beating the Longhorns. Texas could not get in the endzone, they managed only 3 field goals. The Longhorns got only 10 first downs the entire game, and were only 1 for 15 on 3rd down conversions..... Louisiana Tech gets that all important 3rd win, as they have now beaten both ACC teams in this group in back to back weeks. After a scoreless 1st quarter, both teams scored on all of their 2nd quarter possessions, and LA Tech led 17-6 at halftime. They got a 3rd quarter FG to extend that 20-6 before Virginia finally came to life with a 4th quarter TD to get within 7 points. The Cavaliers were able to hold LA Tech to a couple of punts after that, but they were never able to generate anything on offense for the rest of the game. Bulldog QB Colby Cameron went 21-for-32 for 300 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 interceptions.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Florida 4-0 (+82)
Texas 3-1 (+66)
Louisiana Tech 3-1 (+56)
Virginia 1-3 (-40)
South Carolina 1-3 (-66)
Wake Forest 0-4 (-98)

.....

Week 5 matchups:
#9 South Carolina v. Virginia
#24 Texas v. Louisiana Tech
Florida v. Wake Forest

The top 3 teams here have already clinched advancement, leaving little to determine in week 5. Florida has already beaten Texas and Louisiana Tech, so no matter what happens week 5, they will win the group and have a top 20 seed going into the next round - if they can blowout Wake Forest, they could end up top 5. Not bad for a team that was 6-6 in 2011. The winner of the Texas/Louisiana Tech game will get the #2 spot, and the loser will be #3. There's some importance to that game, since because of the blowouts and lack of parity in this group, the winner of that game will be one of the top seeded #2 teams in the next round, as they would be 4-1, and would have a great point differential. So that's a very impressive, and surprising performance for Louisiana Tech, who gets a seemingly brutal draw with 5 BCS schools, and then clinches advancement before the final week is over. The WAC is actually 2 for 2 so far in getting teams into the next round...The winner of the South Carolina/Virginia game will earn the #4 spot, and will be in technical contention for a wild card - however, neither are likely to actually qualify for a wild card because the only team either has beaten thus far is winless Wake Forest. So, neither team will have a "best win" in the top 3 of the group. It's likely both will be officially eliminated after week 5. One interesting quirk in this group - there hasn't been a single game decided by less than 10 points.

Last edited by molson : 01-28-2012 at 12:25 AM.
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Old 01-28-2012, 12:32 AM   #59
molson
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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GROUP I

Week 5:
Virginia 20, #9 South Carolina 13
#24 Texas 30, Louisiana Tech 6
Florida 40, Wake Forest 27

The #9 Gamecocks end their disastrous tourney run with another upset loss, this time to Virginia. South Carolina jumped out 10-0, and still led 13-7 entering the final quarter. But then the Cavalier offense woke up a bit - they got a TD run and a couple of Field Goals in the 4th quarter to take the lead and win the game. South Carolina was only 2-for-14 on third down conversions, a common problem for them in this tournament. Perry Jones had a big day for Virginia, rushing for 158 yards and 3 TDs on 22 carries, and catching 4 passes for 69 yards.....Texas locks up the #2 spot in the group with a strong win over LA Tech. Both teams got a TD in the first quarter, but the Longhorns outscored the Bulldogs 24-0 after that....Florida runs the table at 5-0 setting themselves up very well for the next round. This was a back-and-forth affair for a while, the game was tied at 20 entering the final quarter. But then, the Gators scored on all 4 of their 4th quarter possessions (2 TDs and 2 FGs) to pull away.

...

Final Group I Standings, with point differential in parenthesis::

#1 Florida 5-0 (+95)
#2 Texas 4-1 (+90)
#3 Louisiana Tech 3-2 (+32)
#4 Virginia 2-3 (-33)
#5 South Carolina 1-4 (-73)
#6 Wake Forest 0-5 (-111)

Each team in the group finishes with a different record, so no tiebreakers necessary here. Great performance for Florida to run the table, they'll be in a great position in the next round. Texas was strong as well. LA Tech, as I've said, pulled off a surprising run here, advancing in a group that contained 5 BCS schools. South Carolina is the most disappointing team of the tournament thus far, though Wake Forest also crapped the bed by going 0-5. Both of those teams are eliminated, as is Virginia, who finished #4 in the group, but will not be a wild card contender because their best win, v. South Carolina (1-4, 5th place in group standings), is not good enough to crack the current top 4 in the wild card standings. So Kansas St. survives for at least another group. The current top 4 in the wild card standings are:

Current top 4 in wild card standings:
(best loss in parenthesis, "best loss" is determined by group rank, then record, then point differential excluding game against wild card contender):

Cincinnati (v. Oklahoma St, #1 group ranking, 4-1, +147)
#4 Stanford (v. USC, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +63)
Arizona (v. Utah, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +22)
#8 Kansas St (v. Central Florida, #5 group ranking, 2-3, +10)
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