2011 College Football World Cup

molson · 12-27-2011, 12:07 AM

There's a few of these floating around right now. I ran one last year for the 2009 season, and it was interesting to see things play out, so here we are...

The format will be very similar to the 2009 version, with a couple of tweaks:

2009 College Football World Cup - COMPLETE! - Front Office Football Central

This will be a fast-moving, obnoxious, 120-team tournament, via whatifsports.com, to determine the World Cup Champion of the 2011 College Football Season. Every Div I-A team is involved.

All games will be played at a neutral site. Each game will be played in 40 degree weather with light wind and no rain (good football weather).

I'm going to move through this quickly, not posting anything about individual or player stats unless something really catches my eye. I'll give a quick rundown of the scoring, especially in close games.

The tournament has three stages. The design is intended to give the elite teams an easier early path, but also throw enough chaos and randomness in to where a mediocre team could surprise and make a run if they get the right draw.

Here's the format:

I GROUP STAGE:
-20 Groups of 6 teams each
-Each team plays the other 5 teams in its group once
-Top 3 teams of each group, and 4 wild cards, advance to the next round of 64
-New for 2011, the 4 wild card teams will be the 4 4th place teams that had the best individual win in the group stage, in terms of strongest opponent defeated (as measured by opponent's group stage ranking, W/L record, and if needed as a tiebreaker, point differential).
-Only 25 of the 120 teams are actually seeded. I'm using the final BCS top 25 rankings of the 2011 season. The top 20 teams will be placed one per group across the 20 groups.
-Teams ranked 21-25 will each randomly join one of the 20 groups (so there's a max of 2 seeded teams per group)
-All other placement is a free-for-all, using a random number generator. So luck of the draw is very important.
-In the interest of organization, I'll sim all the games of one group before I start simming the next one, rather then attempt to have everything going on at the same time.

II: PRELIMINARY KNOCK-OUT STAGE
-The 64 teams that get through the group stage are ranked 1-64. (All first place teams ranked first, then second place teams, then third place teams, then the 4 wild cards - since a lot of teams will have the same record, point differential will be big here as the #2 tiebreaker).
-#1 plays #64, #2 plays #63, #3 plays #62, etc.
-32 winners advance to the final knock-round

III: CHAMPIONSHIP KNOCK-OUT STAGE
-The final 32 teams will be seeded randomly here into a fixed, single elimination bracket. So if a so-so team manages to get through the group stage, and can pull an upset in the preliminary knock-out stage, they have a chance to get a decent path to go deep here.

Tiebreakers will be the same whether it comes to group ranking, or second-stage overall rankings:
1. Head-to-head
2. Group Stage point differential
3. Group Stage TD differential
4. Coin Flip
(In a 3+ team tie, if the completion of any step involves 2 or more teams tieing for the lead in that step, the lesser teams drop out, and the remaining teams start over at step 1.)

Here's a rundown of the groups, with 2011 conference, conference W/L record, and overall W/L record.

molson · 12-27-2011, 12:13 AM

Group A

#1 LSU (SEC, 13-0, 8-0)
LA-Monroe (Sun Belt, 4-8, 3-5)
Rutgers (Big East, 8-4, 4-3)
Syracuse (Big East 5-7, 1-6)
Eastern Michigan (MAC, 6-6, 4-4)
UNLV (MWC, 2-10, 1-6)

LSU should steamroll to an easy 5 wins here, but the real benefactor in this weak group is Rutgers. In plenty of other groups it would be a real struggle to finish in the top 3 and advance, but here, they're clearly the 2nd best team in the group and have a great shot to move on. It's a lucky draw as well for Syracuse and Eastern Michigan - the matchup between those two teams could decide the 3rd spot. And the group is weak enough that even UNLV and/or LA-Monroe could pull a couple of upsets to make things interesting. LSU will be looking for a 5-0 record, a dominant point differential, and a top ranking going into the next round.

molson · 12-27-2011, 12:19 AM

GROUP B

#2 Alabama (SEC, 11-1, 7-1)
Florida St. (ACC, 8-4, 5-3)
Maryland (ACC, 2-10, 1-7)
Washington (PAC-12, 7-5, 5-4)
Utah (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5)
Arizona (PAC-12, 4-8, 2-7)

Things get much tougher right away in Group B, as 6 BCS Conference schools square off. 'Bama should cruise to the group win, but getting 5 straight wins is hardly automatic here. Even a 4-1 strong run might cost 'Bama 8-12 spots in the overall rankings, and then they'd have to deal with a much tougher opponent in the next stage. Maryland will probably be the group whipping boy, and Arizona is only a little better, but the remaining 3 schools seem pretty evenly matched, and will likely compete for 2 spots.

molson · 12-27-2011, 12:23 AM

GROUP C

#3 Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 11-1, 8-1)
LA-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 8-4, 6-2)
Cincinnati (Big East, 9-3, 5-2)
Kent St. (MAC, 5-7, 4-4)
Ball St. (MAC, 6-6, 4-4)
Tennessee (SEC, 5-7, 1-7)

The talent level drops down again in group C. Cincinnati, like Rutgers, gets a great draw - they'll be outclassed by Oklahoma St, but they'll be the favorite in their other 4 games, and they have a great shot to advance. Tennessee may have the edge for the other spot v. the 3 non-bcs schools, but it's not a clear edge.

molson · 12-27-2011, 12:31 AM

GROUP D

#4 Stanford (PAC-12, 11-1, 8-1)
Arizona St (PAC-12, 6-6, 4-6)
Missouri (Big 12, 7-5, 5-4)
California (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5)
USC (PAC-12, 10-2, 7-2)
Colorado (PAC-12, 3-10, 2-7)

Brutally tough group here featuring Missouri joining almost half of the Pac-12. Wherever USC ended up, it was going to be tough for the group's resident ranked team, as USC brings top-25 caliber talent. Stanford will have probably the toughest path of any ranked team to win their group, and they could even find themselves fighting to advance if they slip in a game or two. Either way, Stanford and USC will be favored to advance, while Missouri, Arizona St. and California will probably fight for the 3rd spot. There will be a somewhat high profile BCS Conference team or two not advancing to the final 64 from this group.

molson · 12-27-2011, 12:36 AM

GROUP E

#5 Oregon (PAC-12, 11-1, 8-1)
Ohio (MAC, 9-4, 6-2)
North Texas (Sun Belt, 5-7, 4-4)
Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt, 2-10, 1-7)
Toledo (MAC, 8-4, 7-1)
Mississippi St. (SEC, 6-6, 2-6)

Oregon gets very little competition - they'll be looking for point differential to distinguish themselves from the other 5-0 teams in the rankings for the next round. How will a bottom-feeding SEC team like Mississippi St. fare against top MAC teams like Toledo and Ohio? Those three teams seem to be the best in the group after Oregon, and will likely be competing for two spots.

molson · 12-27-2011, 12:39 AM

GROUP F

#6 Arkansas (SEC 11-1, 7-1)
Notre Dame (Ind, 8-4)
Louisville (Big East, 7-5, 5-2)
Bowling Green (MAC, 5-7, 3-5)
North Carolina St. (ACC, 7-5, 4-4)
Ohio St (Big 10, 6-6, 3-5)

Like clockwork, we bounce back to a very tough conference. Arkansas is the class of group F, and poor Bowling Green gets a terrible draw and appears to be at the bottom. Which would leave Notre Dame/Louisville/NC St/Ohio St fighting for 2 spots, and I have no idea how that would turn out. It's an unlucky draw each of those teams.

molson · 12-27-2011, 12:41 AM

GROUP G

#7 Boise St. (MWC 11-1, 6-1)
Florida International (Sun Belt, 8-4, 5-3)
Western Michigan (MAC, 7-5, 5-3)
Central Michigan (MAC, 3-9, 2-6)
Miami, FL (ACC, 3-5, 6-6)
Tulsa (CUSA, 8-4, 7-1)

Great opportunity for Boise St. to run the table, though Miami might be an interesting challenge. Miami and Tulsa get great draws here, they appear to be the clear favorites to take the other two spots. The week 1 Eastern Michigan/Central Michigan winner certainly has a shot too though, if they can pull an upset or two.

molson · 12-27-2011, 12:47 AM

GROUP H

#8 Kansas St. (Big 12, 10-2, 7-2)
#25 Auburn (SEC, 7-5, 4-4)
San Jose St. (WAC, 5-7, 3-4)
lliinois (Big 10, 6-6, 2-6)
Oregon St. (PAC-12, 3-9, 3-6)
Central Florida (CUSA, 5-7, 3-5)

Group H is the first group to feature two ranked teams, and Auburn will challenge Kansas St for the #1 spot in the group (and easier 2nd stage matchup). But both should easily advance, as the talent level drops down in a hurry after them. Illinois gets what is probably a lucky draw despite the two seeded teams, as they may be the best of a very weak balance of the group. It's a very lucky draw too for Oregon St, Central Florida, and San Jose St, who are all only an Illinois implosion from actually advancing, something that would be impossible for them in most other groups.

collegesportsfanms · 12-27-2011, 02:42 AM

good to see Kansas State have an easy draw. molson, did you think about setting it up so that you didn't have 5 teams from the same conference in the same group? I know it's luck of the draw but I would think you'd want to spread the conferences out a little better. That is a tough group with 5 Pac Twelve teams.

cubboyroy1826 · 12-27-2011, 08:55 AM

Should be fun to watch.

molson · 12-27-2011, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by collegesportsfanms

good to see Kansas State have an easy draw. molson, did you think about setting it up so that you didn't have 5 teams from the same conference in the same group? I know it's luck of the draw but I would think you'd want to spread the conferences out a little better. That is a tough group with 5 Pac Twelve teams.

Ya, I've thought about it, and that would definitely make for a more "fair" system, but I guess I just prefer the randomness and craziness involved with treating every team the same regardless of conference or record or 2011 results - with the exception of putting one top 20 team in every group in the first stage. It does create the odd groups like "Missouri and the Pac-12".

molson · 12-27-2011, 07:16 PM

GROUP I

#9 South Carolina (SEC 6-2, 10-2)
#24 Texas (Big 12, 7-5, 4-5)
Louisiana Tech (WAC, 8-4, 6-1)
Florida (SEC, 6-6, 3-5)
Wake Forest (ACC, 6-6, 5-3)
Virginia (ACC, 8-4, 5-3)

Poor Louisiana Tech, they're a decent enough team out of the WAC that might have a shot at advancing with a favorable draw, but here - they get bunched with 5 solid BCS teams in brutal group I. It's no free ticket for ranked South Carolina or Texas to advance here, they'll have to beat some good teams to do it. Actually, I'd say South Carolina is the favorite, but Texas/Florida/Wake/Virginia are pretty close - 4 good teams fighting for 2 other spots.

molson · 12-27-2011, 07:18 PM

GROUP J

#10 Wisconsin (Big 10, 11-2, 6-2)
Wyoming (MWC, 8-4, 5-2)
Utah St. (WAC, 7-4, 5-2)
Hawaii (WAC, 6-7, 3-4)
North Carolina (ACC, 7-5, 3-5)
Iowa (Big 10, 7-5, 4-4)

Pretty good draw for all of the 5 teams who land in Wisconsin's group. Wisconsin should dominate, but everybody else probably has a shot to advance. Iowa and North Carolina are the favorites for spots 2 and 3, but it's easy to see Hawaii, Wyoming, or Utah St. ruining the party, especially if one of them can run the table against the other 2. That'll be key here - if say, Wyoming can beat Utah St. and Hawaii, they'll only need one upset against in their 3 other games to advance.

molson · 12-27-2011, 07:26 PM

GROUP K

#11 Virginia Tech (ACC, 11-2, 7-1)
Temple (MAC, 8-4, 5-3)
Marshall (CUSA, 7-5, 5-3)
New Mexico St. (WAC, 4-9, 2-5)
Kentucky (SEC, 5-7, 2-6)
Rice (CUSA, 4-8, 3-5)

Another pretty soft group, that will see at least 1 non-BCS school get to the next round, and possibly two, as Kentucky isn't going to scare anyone. A real sleeper could emerge here, as there's a good chance that a non-BCS school will earn the #2 group spot, wich would give them a somewhat more manageable game in stage II. If they win there, they could get a fortunate draw in the final round of 32....Temple or Marshall appear to be the best two candidates to pull something like that off.

molson · 12-27-2011, 07:31 PM

GROUP L

#12 Baylor (Big 12, 9-3, 6-3)
Connecticut (Big East 5-7, 3-4)
Ole Miss (SEC, 2-10, 0-8)
Indiana (Big 10, 0-8, 1-11)
Washington St. (PAC-12, 4-8, 2-7)
UCLA (PAC-12, 6-7, 5-4)

It's an all BCS-conference group, but that would include maybe the two worst BCS-conference teams, Ole Miss and Indiana, so, it's still a good draw for Washington St, UCLA, and Connecticut, who will probably compete for the #2 and #3 spots. And like the Group K, there's no real clear #2 team, so this group presents another chance for a sleeper team to finish at #2 and get the favorable draw going forward.

molson · 12-27-2011, 07:37 PM

GROUP M

#13 Michigan (Big 10, 10-2, 6-2)
Nevada (WAC, 7-5, 5-2)
Navy (Ind, 5-7)
Troy (Sun Belt, 3-9, 2-6)
Idaho (WAC, 2-10, 1-6)
Colorado St. (MWC, 3-9, 1-6)

Nevada and Navy get maybe the best draws yet - not only do they land somewhere where they have a chance to advance, they'll be the favorites to land the #2 and #3 spots in this weak group. it's a great draw for Idaho, Colorado St, and Troy as well, as any of those teams that can just beat the other two, and Navy, would advance as well.

molson · 12-27-2011, 08:04 PM

GROUP N

#14 Oklahoma (Big 12, 9-3, 6-3)
#21 Southern Mississippi (CUSA, 11-2, 6-2)
Army (Ind, 3-9)
Arkansas St. (Sun Belt, 10-2, 8-0)
Duke (ACC, 3-9, 1-7)
Tulane (CUSA, 2-11, 1-7)

Interesting drop off here between the top two teams and everyone else. Does Arkansas St's 8-0 Sun Belt record make them the favorite for the #3 spot? If not them, then the door is opened for a very fortunate bottom feeder to get past the group stage.

molson · 12-28-2011, 12:08 AM

GROUP O

#15 Clemson (ACC, 10-3, 6-2)
Pittsburgh (Big East, 6-6, 4-3)
Buffalo (MAC, 3-9, 2-6)
New Mexico (MWC, 1-11, 1-6)
Memphis (CUSA, 2-10, 1-7)
SMU (CUSA, 7-5, 5-3)

There's a clear pecking order here - Clemson, Pittsburgh, and SMU will be favored to advance while Buffalo, New Mexico, and Memphis will look for some big upsets.

molson · 12-28-2011, 12:09 AM

GROUP P

#16 Georgia (SEC 10-3, 7-1)
Vanderbilt (SEC, 6-6, 2-6)
Air Force (MWC, 7-5, 3-4)
Kansas (Big 12, 2-10, 0-9)
Minnesota (Big 10, 3-9, 2-6)
East Carolina (CUSA, 5-7, 4-4)

Georgia at the top, Kansas at the bottom, and then a quartet of relative mediocrity, all of whom will have a chance to advance.

molson · 12-28-2011, 12:12 AM

GROUP Q

#17 Michigan St. (Big 10, 10-3, 7-1)
BYU (Ind, 9-3)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt, 7-5, 7-1)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 1-11, 0-8)
Northern Illinois (MAC, 10-3, 7-1)
UTEP (CUSA, 5-7, 2-6)

Northern Illinois gets a great draw - any time you can get in a pool with two Sun Belt teams, things are looking up. If Northern Illinois can finish ahead of of the sun belt representatives, only UTEP stands in their way of moving on. BYU would probably have been favored to advance in almost any group, but here their path is particularly easy, and in fact, they get one of the lower-seeded ranked teams in Michigan St, so BYU has at least some chance to knock them off and steal this group.

molson · 12-28-2011, 12:16 AM

GROUP R

#18 TCU (MWD, 11-2, 7-0)
#23 West Virginia (Big East, 9-3, 5-2)
Boston College (ACC, 4-8, 3-5)
Iowa St. (Big 12, 6-6, 3-6)
Northwestern (Big 10, 6-6, 3-5)
Purdue (Big 10, 6-6, 4-4)

6 BCS schools, two of them ranked, and 5 of them with .500 overall records or better. Tough, deep group. TCU really doesn't get much of an advantage with their #18 ranking, as they land here with a real threat in West Virginia. And the other four teams here are more than capable of scoring an upset. Or on the other hand, they could just beat up on each other and trade victories, making things easier on TCU and WVU. No easy games here.

molson · 12-28-2011, 12:21 AM

GROUP S

#19 Houston (CUSA, 12-1, 8-0)
#22 Penn St. (Big 10, 9-3, 6-2)
San Diego St. (MWC, 8-4, 4-3)
South Florida (Big East, 5-7, 1-6)
Akron (MAC, 1-11, 0-8)
Texas Tech (Big 12, 5-7, 2-7)

Another two-ranked team group - Penn St/Houston will be an interesting matchup Week 1, and the winner of that one will almost definitely win the group. The loser of the game probably still advance. But an interesting wild card will be Texas Tech - will they look more like early season TT or the team that collapsed at the end? Or an average of the two? That third spot will probably come down to Texas Tech or San Diego St.

molson · 12-28-2011, 12:24 AM

GROUP T

#20 Nebraska (Big 10, 9-3, 5-3)
Fresno St. (WAC, 4-9, 3-4)
Miami, OH (MAC, 4-8, 3-5)
Georgia Tech (ACC, 8-4, 5-3)
Texas A&M (Big 12, 6-6, 4-5)
UAB (CUSA, 3-9, 3-5)

Finally, Group T features 3 BCS schools and 3 non-bcs schools. The three bcs schools will be favored to advance. Even though Texas A&M is a bit shaky, UAB, Fresno St, and Miami of Ohio aren't exactly in the upper tier of even their weaker conferences.

molson · 12-28-2011, 08:31 PM

GROUP A

#1 LSU (SEC, 13-0, 8-0)
LA-Monroe (Sun Belt, 4-8, 3-5)
Rutgers (Big East, 8-4, 4-3)
Syracuse (Big East 5-7, 1-6)
Eastern Michigan (MAC, 6-6, 4-4)
UNLV (MWC, 2-10, 1-6)
-----------------------------------
Week 1:
#1 LSU 29, LA-Monroe 10
Rutgers 20, Syracuse 16
UNLV 21, Eastern Michigan 10

LSU wins comfortably, if a little unconvincingly. The Warhawks made it interesting in the 3rd quarter - they got a TD and then a FG to draw within 17-10, then forced a punt and drove to the LSU 30. But the LSU-Monroe QB got sacked there on 3rd down, and that was as close as they got the rest of the way. LSU got 4 FGs on 4 4th quarter possessions to seal it...The Rutgers/Syracuse game sounds about as boring as most big east games I saw this year, but it did have an exciting ending - the Orange QB (Nassib) had it at the Rutgers 1 yard-line for the last play of the game - the pass to the RB (Bailey) was complete, but he was stopped short of the goal line, so Rutgers holds on....UNLV with a modest upset that really hurts Eastern Michigan's chances. The Rebels get two long TD runs from Dionza Bradford in the first quarter, and that's all they needed.

Week 2:
#1 LSU 44, Rutgers 10
Eastern Michigan 23, LA-Monroe 20
Syracuse 50, UNLV 7

LSU finds their form against Rutgers. Rutgers got a TD late in the 1st quarter to tie the game at 7, but the Tigers dominated after that....Eastern Michigan just barely gets a win in a must-win situation against the Warhawks. Down by 7 with 7:46 to go, Eastern Michigan managed a 14-play, 82-yard drive, that included 3 third down conversions, and ended with 10-yard QB draw for a TD with 1:49 left. Then they forced a quick 3-and-out, got good field position, and got the game winning 40 yard FG as time expired...Syracuse with a surprisingly big blowout of UNLV
...

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis (first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but point differential is likely to be very important when seeding teams for the second round, where ties exist between teams that haven't played each other).

LSU 2-0 (+53)
Syracuse 1-1 (+39)
Eastern Michigan 1-1 (-8)
Rutgers 1-1 (-30)
UNLV 1-1 (-32)
Louisiana-Monroe 0-2 (-22)

LSU's looking good, but they'll want a better point differential to get a top seeding in the next round. The 4-way battle for the next two spots has emerged, but Rutgers appears to have the edge since they've already played LSU, and they own a tiebreaker against Syracuse. But seeing how UNLV beat Eastern Michigan and then was destroyed by Syracuse - it's looking like both big east teams are going to move on.

molson · 12-29-2011, 09:30 PM

Group A

Week 3:
#1 LSU 27, Syracuse 0
Louisiana-Monroe 31, UNLV 17
Rutgers 10, Eastern Michigan 7

LSU doesn't score a ton of points but they completely shut down the Orange. Still, it was close for a while, 10-0 halftime, LSU didn't really run away with things until the 4th quarter...LA-Monroe jumped out to a 17-0 lead, and then held off UNLV for their first win....Rutgers survives a defensive struggle with Eastern Michigan. All the scoring was in the 2nd quarter. Eastern Michigan fumbled the ball on the Rutgers 1 yard line in the 3rd quarter. They didn't get another first down until the final drive the game, where they got into Rutgers territory but threw an interception.

Week 4:
#1 LSU 30, Eastern Michigan 0
Syracuse 16, Louisiana-Monroe 10
Rutgers 20, UNLV 14

LSU pitches their 2nd straight shutout. They've given up a total of 20 points in their 4 games thus far....Syracuse avoids disaster, and Louisiana-Monroe blows a chance to get their 2nd group win. The game was tied at 10 with about 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter until Syracuse got a 26-yard FG. LA-Monroe went 3-and-out, punted, and Syracuse drove 57 yards for another FG with 55 seconds left. LA-Monroe couldn't get a first down after the ensuing kickoff, and Syracuse escapes....In another close game, their 2nd straight, Rutgers holds on to beat UNLV. Rutgers led 17-0 at halftime, and it was still 17-0 in the final minute of the 3rd quarter, but then UNLV made things interesting with an offensive flurry. They got a 74-yard TD drive to close out the 3rd quarter, held Rutgers to a 3-and-out, and then got a 63-yard TD pass a few plays later to close the gap to 17-14. However, they never got closer than the Rutgers 35 yard line after that.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

LSU 4-0 (+110)
Rutgers 3-1 (-21)
Syracuse 2-2 (+18)
Eastern Michigan 1-3 (-41)
Louisiana-Monroe 1-3 (-14)
UNLV 1-3 (-52)

...

Week 5 lineup:
#1 LSU v. UNLV
LA-Monroe v. Rutgers
Syracuse v. Eastern Michigan

There have been some close games that could have mixed things up if they went another way, but as it is, the three BCS schools have taken care of business, and the three non-BCS schools have beat up on each other, preventing any of them from rising up to challenge for advancement.

LSU has already clinched the #1 spot due to owning the tiebreaker with Rutgers, they'll look for another shutout and to pad the point differential for seeding in the next round. Rutgers has already clinched the #2 spot and will advance. They have a chance to improve their terrible -21 point differential against LA-Monroe in the final week, and try to improve their Round 2 positioning. Is is very likely that the Syracuse v. Eastern Michigan game will determine the #3 spot (there is an outside chance that if Eastern Michigan wins, and UNLV somehow beats LSU, Syracuse could win a multi-team tiebreaker due to point differential).

molson · 12-29-2011, 09:48 PM

Group A

Week 5:
#1 LSU 63, UNLV 3
Rutgers 30, Louisiana-Monroe 14
Eastern Michigan 30, Syracuse 7

LSU's shutout streak ends, just barely....The wins haven't been very impressive for Rutgers, but they get to 4-1. Even though the point differential is still bad, there probably won't be a lot of 4-1 teams to rank ahead of them....And in the stunner of the tournament so far, Eastern Michigan, who lost to UNLV, who had in turn lost to Syracuse by 43 points, blows out the Orange and advances to next round. The Eagles rushed for 307 yards.

....

Final Group A Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 LSU 5-0 (+170)
#2 Rutgers 4-1 (-5)
#3 Eastern Michigan 2-3 (-18)
#4 Syracuse 2-3 (-5) (Best win v. LA-Monroe)
#5 Louisiana-Monroe 1-4 (-30)
#6 UNLV 1-4 (-112)

LSU's domination is evidenced by the fact that they're the only team to finish with a positive point differential. It's tough to finish 4-1 and have a negative point differential, but the Scarlet Knights pulled it off - still, they advance, and the 4-1 ranking should give them decent positioning and a winnable stage 2 game. Eastern Michigan's stunning week 5 win gives them the tiebreaker over Syracuse and puts them into the next round. Louisiana-Monroe and UNLV are the first two teams eliminated. Syracuse finishes #4, and they are thus still technically alive, since the 4 fourth-place teams with the best individual wins advance. However, Syracuse's best win (v. LA-Monroe, #5 group rank, 1-4 record, -30 point differential), is not likely to hold up.

BYU 14 · 12-30-2011, 09:26 AM

Nice start, go Cougars!!!

molson · 12-30-2011, 08:53 PM

GROUP B

#2 Alabama (SEC, 11-1, 7-1)
Florida St. (ACC, 8-4, 5-3)
Maryland (ACC, 2-10, 1-7)
Washington (PAC-12, 7-5, 5-4)
Utah (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5)
Arizona (PAC-12, 4-8, 2-7)
----------------------

Week 1:
#2 Alabama 37, Florida St. 13
Washington 47, Maryland 34
Arizona 24, Utah 19

In this tough group, it was important for 'bama to get off to a big start, and they did. They led 17-0 early in the 2nd quarter and were never really challenged by Florida St...Washington plays with fire a little bit before getting a must-win v. lowly Maryland....Arizona gets a modest upset against Pac-12 rival Utah. And Utah wasn't even as close as the final score indicated, they got 2 TDs in the final 5 minutes to make the final score respectable.

Week 2:
#2 Alabama 58, Maryland 14
Utah 34, Florida St. 17
Arizona 38, Washington 23

'Bama takes advantage of the worst team in the group to pad their point differential. Alabama scored the first 45 points of that game, leaving nothing to chance....Utah rebounds from their upset loss to Arizona with an upset win v. Florida St. That game was tied at 17 going into the final quarter, but Utah outscored Florida St. 17-0 from then on to get the big win...Arizona gets their 2nd straight win against a Pac-12 rival and puts themselves in great position to advance with by getting past Washington. The Huskies were never that close - they were within 8 in the 4th quarter, and had the ball, but only got to their own 45 yard line before punting. Then Arizona got a FG, and Washington never got any closer.

...

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Alabama 2-0 (+68)
Arizona 2-0 (+20)
Utah 1-1 (+12)
Washington 1-1 (-2)
Florida St. 0-2 (-41)
Maryland 0-2 (-57)

I had thought that Florida St. might be the 2nd best team in the group, but they're in big trouble now after that loss to Utah. They probably have to beat Washington, Maryland, and Arizona now to advance....And Arizona has really surprised, pulling back to back upsets over Washington and Utah to put themselves in great position to advance - they haven't even played Maryland yet, and a win there, and they're probably moving on. Washington and Utah don't play until week 5, but that game is already shaping up to be an elimination game.

molson · 01-03-2012, 10:33 PM

GROUP B

Week 3:
#2 Alabama 45, Washington 6
Florida St. 34, Arizona 17
Utah 22, Maryland 17

Alabama rolls, and seems to be putting up a better point differential than LSU did in group A....Arizona misses out on a big opportunity to go to 3-0 before they have to deal with Alabama, and with a winnable Maryland game still on the schedule....In the closest game of the week, Utah gets a must-win v. Maryland. Maryland led 17-12 entering the 4th quarter. Utah got an early 4th quarter FG to get within 2, and then held Maryland to a 3-and-out, and then Utah got a TD drive for the final margin. The Terrapins got down to the Utah 15 yard line with less than 3 minutes to play, but they turned the ball over on downs. Utah's John White got 185 yards rushing on 32 carries.

Week 4:
#2 Alabama 27, Utah 10
Florida St. 27, Washington 14
Arizona 38, Maryland 17

The Crimson Tide get their closest challenge yet, and Utah led 10-3 with about 5 minutes left in the first half, but Alabama controlled the game from there.....In a critical game between two 1-2 teams, Florida St. gets the big win to rally from 0-2 to 2-2. The Huskies never led after going up 3-0 in the first quarter. They did get as close at 3 points in the middle of the 4th quarter, and had the ball at midfield after getting an interception, but they had to punt, the Seminoles got a TD on their next possession, and that was the game....Arizona gets critical win #3 against Maryland, the Wildcats jump out 28-0 early in the 2nd quarter and cruise from there.

.....

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Alabama 4-0 (+124)
Arizona 3-1 (+20)
Utah 2-2 (0)
Florida St. 2-2 (-11)
Washington 1-3 (-54)
Maryland 0-4 (-79)

...

Week 5 lineup:
#2 Alabama v. Arizona
Florida St. v. Maryland
Washington v. Utah

Arizona, a Pac-12 doormat this year, is the surprise team of the tournament thus far, and they've gotten there by beating conference rivals Washington and Utah. The winner of the Week 5 Arizona v. Alabama game wins this group. Alabama has clinched a spot in the next round, but Arizona actually hasn't yet. If Arizona loses, and Utah and Florida St. both win, those three teams all finish 3-2, with only 2 spots available. They're all 1-1 within that sub-group, so it would come down to point differential for spot #2, and then head-to-head for the other teams for spot #3....Washington is virtually eliminated. They would have to beat Utah by about 60+ points, and have Florida St. lose to Maryland. Then they'd win a 3-way tiebreaker with Florida St. and Utah for the third spot. Still, they can spoil things for Utah.

molson · 01-03-2012, 11:13 PM

GROUP B

Week 5:
#2 Alabama 38, Arizona 20
Florida St. 27, Maryland 16
Utah 37, Washington 20

The Wildcats make things interesting, and the relatively close margin may help them in tiebreakers, but they fall to Alabama. Arizona got an 80-yard TD pass on their 2nd offensive play to go up 7-3. But then the Crimson Tide got a TD drive, and intercepted Arizona for another TD a few plays later to go up 17-7. Arizona hung in there though. They got a FG on their next possession, then traded punts with Alabama for much of the 2nd quarter before intercepting an Alabama pass, which led to another Arizona TD. That tied the game at 17 with 6 minutes left in the first half. Then Alabama scored to go up 7, and Arizona got a FG just before halftime to make it 24-20, Alabama. Arizona wouldn't score again, and Alabama would get a couple more touchdowns to get a somewhat comfortable margin in the end.....Maryland led Florida St. 6-0, and then 9-7, but the Seminoles got things together in time to get the win and send Maryland to 0-5....Washington ends their disappointing run with a loss to Utah. The Utes had just a 1-point lead at halftime, 21-20, but outscored the Huskies 16-0 in the second half. Washington didn't get a first down in the entire 3rd quarter and first 5 minutes of the 4th quarter, while Utah was building a lead.

....

Final Group B Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 Alabama 5-0 (+142)
#2 Utah 3-2 (+17)
#3 Florida St. 3-2 (0)
#4 Arizona 3-2 (+2) (Best win v. Utah)
#5 Washington 1-4 (-71)
#6 Maryland 0-5 (-90)

Alabama gets the #1 spot with a clean sweep, but after a strong start, finishes almost 30 points behind LSU in point differential due to closer than expected games against Utah and Arizona.....Then things get interesting....A three way tie for spots #2-#4. Utah, Arizona, and Florida St. all finish 3-2. All three teams finished 1-1 within that subgroup of 3 teams. So, Utah, with a +17 point differential, wins the #2 spot by 15 points over Arizona, who was just +2. 15 points is a very close margin over 5 games....So then Arizona and Florida St. are tied for the #3 spot, and Florida St. gets it because they beat Arizona in week 3....So that's a really, really tough break for Arizona, who came into this group looking marginally better than Maryland, and then surprised PAC-12 rivals Utah and Washington to go 3-2. At #4, they're still in contention for one of the 4 wild card spots. Their best win is against Utah (#2, +17), which is a pretty strong win. It's stronger than Syracuse's first win, so they'll be alive for a while. Washington and Maryland become the first two BCS-conference schools to be eliminated.

molson · 01-04-2012, 12:05 AM

GROUP C

#3 Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 11-1, 8-1)
LA-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 8-4, 6-2)
Cincinnati (Big East, 9-3, 5-2)
Kent St. (MAC, 5-7, 4-4)
Ball St. (MAC, 6-6, 4-4)
Tennessee (SEC, 5-7, 1-7)

------------------------

Week 1:
#3 Oklahoma St 41, LA-Lafayette 17
Cincinnati 19, Kent St. 11
Ball St. 34, Tennessee 13

Oklahoma St. jumps out 28-0 and never looks back. Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden throws for 444 yards and 3 TDs (but also 2 interceptions). Which was important because their running game wasn't working at all (40 yards on 31 carries)....In an intrastate matchup, Cincinnati beats Kent St. The Bearcats couldn't get much going on offense - just 3 FGs and a punt return for a TD in the first half. That was enough to win, but Kent St. made it interesting at the end. Down 8, they got down to the Bearcat 17-yard line after a long pass. On the final play of the game, Cincinnati broke up a Ken St. pass in the end zone.....Then Ball St. throws a wrench into the whole 3 BCS schools v. 3 non-BCS schools dichotomy by laying down the hammer and convincingly beating Tennessee. Volunteer QB Tyler Bray threw 4 picks, as Tennessee never got closer than 10 points after the 1st quarter.

Week 2:
Cincinnati 43, #3 Oklahoma St. 38
LA-Lafayette 40, Ball St. 27
Tennessee 30, Kent St. 17

#3 Oklahoma St. becomes the first ranked team to lose a game in a shootout with Cincinnati that had an amazing finish. The teams traded scores and were tied at 24 at halftime. Both teams got one TD in the 3rd quarter, but the Bearcats missed their extra point, so the Cowboys were up 31-30 entering the final quarter. They extended that lead to 38-30 on the 2nd play of the 4th quarter with a 30 yard TD pass. The Bearcats then went 3-and-out, which gave the Cowboys a chance to take control of the game. But, with an 8-point lead and the ball, they missed a 46-yard FG with 11 minutes left. Cincinnati responded with a 15 play, 81 yard TD drive. However, they failed the 2-point conversion attempt, so the Cowboys still led, 38-36, with 5 minutes to go, and a chance to run out the clock. However, OK St. went three and out and had to punt. Cincinnati got a great punt return, giving the Bearcats the ball at the Cowboy 41, down 2, with 3:15 to go. Rather than settle for a FG attempt, the Bearcats get the go-ahead TD after a pair of long runs to go up 43-38 with 2:13 left. So Oklahoma St. had some time left, but they threw an interception with 1:05 left that seemed to seal the game for the Bearcats. But, OK St. used their timeouts, held Cincinnati, and got the ball back, after a Bearcat punt, at their own 18, down 5, with 17 seconds left. Cowboy QB Weeden then completed a deep pass to Horton, who sprinted all the way down to the Cincinnati 6-yard line before being pushed out of bounds as time expired. The log doesn't go into this level of detail, but I imagine Horton getting into the end zone, and the play being overturned on review because he stepped out of bounds at the 6....Ball St. blows a golden opportunity to build on their upset win over Tennessee by getting spanked by LA-Lafayette. Ball St. led 24-10 at halftime but completely fell apart in the 2nd half, where they were outscored 30-3....Tennessee rebounds win a win over Kent St, where the Golden Flashes needed 10 points in the final 9 minutes to get as close as they did.

...

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Cincinnati 2-0 (+13)
Oklahoma St. 1-1 (+19)
Ball St. 1-1 (+8)
Tennessee 1-1 (-8)
LA-Lafayette 1-1 (-11)
Kent St. 0-2 (-21)

The Cowboys' stunning loss might end up costing them the #1 group spot, but they're probably not in any danger of being eliminated at this point, with 3 weak opponents now ahead of them. Cincinnati though, now controls its own destiny for winning the group, which would give them an easier round 2 matchup and a great shot at the final 32....Ball St.'s win over TN gave them a great chance to take control of the #3 spot, but they blew it against the Rajin' Cajuns. Ball St. is in a tougher spot now because they still have to play both Oklahoma St. and Cincinnati, and need to beat to Kent St. just to, in all likelihood, get to 2 wins....Tennessee also still has to play the two big boys, so they're probably looking at 2 wins at best too....That leaves the Rajin' Cajuns, who can take #3 spot if they beat both Tennessee and Kent St....But if Volunteers beat LA-Lafayette, then Tenn/Ball St/LA-Lafayette would all likely finish 2-3, and we'd probably be looking at point differential for the 3rd spot.

molson · 01-04-2012, 12:50 AM

GROUP C

Week 3:
#3 Oklahoma St. 55, Kent St. 17
Tennessee 39, LA-Lafayette 23
Ball St. 32, Cincinnati 20

Oklahoma St. recovers with a blowout win. It took them a little while to get going, they were down 3-0 until the final 2 minutes of the 1st quarter, and they were up only 14-3 at halftime. But they got 5 TDs and 2 FGs in the 2nd half....Tennessee takes care of business. It wasn't exactly convincing, but they never trailed....Then the Cincinnati Bearcats, fresh off their stunning victory over #3 Oklahoma St, have a serious letdown and lose to Ball St. The Cardinals jumped out 17-0 in the first half. The Bearcats' first 5 possessions resulted in 4 punts and an interception. Cincinnati did get a 46-yard TD pass as time expired in the first half, and got another TD on their first possession of the 2nd half, to cut it to 17-14, Ball St. But the Bearcat offense then stalled again, while Ball St. build their lead. Cincinnati didn't score again until a 59-yard pass with about 2 minutes left in the game, but then it was too late. They couldn't recover an onside kick, and Ball St. got another FG for the final margin.

Week 4:
#3 Oklahoma St. 58, Ball St. 21
LA-Lafayette 21, Kent St. 6
Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 24

Some sanity is restored as the Cowboys trounce the Cardinals. Oklahoma St. RB Joseph Randle rushed for 156 yards and 3 TDs....LA-Lafayette never trailed and gets a must-win over Kent St. They get 4 FGs, a TD, and a Safety, as the teams combine for only 153 rushing yards, and 575 yards of offense overall.... Cincinnati follows up their big win against Oklahoma St. with their 2nd straight loss, a close one to Tennessee. Once again, the Bearcat offense struggled, their first 5 possessions resulted in 3 punts and 2 interceptions. But they also intercepted a Volunteer pass for a TD, and got another TD and FG near the end of the first half, and led 17-10 at halftime. The Volunteers tied it with a TD drive on their first possession of the 2nd half. In the 4th quarter, Tennessee got a FG, then forced the Bearcats to punt, then got a TD drive to go up by 10. The Bearcats immediately answered with an 85-yard TD drive to draw within 3, but that was the end of their scoring. They got the ball down to the TN 23-yard line on their next possession, but QB Legaux was sacked and fumbled, and they never got close again.

.......

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Oklahoma St. 3-1 (+94)
Tennessee 3-1 (+11)
Cincinnati 2-2 (-2)
LA-Lafayette 2-2 (-12)
Ball St. 2-2 (-17)
Kent St. 0-4 (-74)

......

Week 5 lineup:
#3 Oklahoma St. v. Tennessee
LA-Lafayette v. Cincinnati
Ball St. v Kent St.

A lot of strange results in this group. After the first two weeks, Cincinnati looked like the team to beat, Oklahoma St. looked like they were going to finish out of first place in the group, and Tennessee looked to be in serious trouble....Now, Tennessee and Oklahoma St. will square off for the #1 spot in the group in week 5....Tennessee is in a similar position that Arizona was in the last group - they win the group if they win week 5, but could fall all the way out of the top 3 if they lose, depending on how the tiebreakers shake out....It's hard to see anything going to plan in this group, but Ball St. is still in a great position. If week 5 favorites Oklahoma St, Cincinnati, and Ball St. win week 5, Ball St, Cincinnati, and Tennessee all finish 3-2, and Ball St. would snag the #2 spot because they beat both Cincinnati and Tennessee. Tennessee would get the #3 spot, and Cincinnati would finish out of the money, but would pretty much be guaranteed a wild card spot with their "best win" v. Oklahoma St.

molson · 01-04-2012, 01:12 AM

GROUP C

Week 5:
#3 Oklahoma St. 51, Tennessee 3
Cincinnati 28, LA-Lafayette 16
Ball St. 26, Kent St. 6

Oklahoma St. leaves nothing to chance and wins the group by crushing the Volunteers. Joseph Randle rushes for 198 yards and 2 TDs, and Brandon Weeden throws for 447 yards and 2 TDs (with 1 interception). Oklahoma St. outgains Tennessee 667-279...Cincinnati finally gets back on track. It's not a blowout, but they never trail and control the game throughout....Ball St. has only lowly Kent St. in between it and advancing to the next round, and I halfway expect them to blow another big game, but they get a big 20-point win.

....

Final Group C Standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Oklahoma St. 4-1 (+142)
#2 Ball St. 3-2 (+3)
#3 Tennessee 3-2 (-37)
#4 Cincinnati 3-2 (+10) (Best win v. Oklahoma St.)
#5 LA-Lafayette 2-3 (-24)
#6 Kent St. 0-5 (-94)

Oklahoma St, much like their real-life 2011 counterparts, was dominate except v. one mediocre opponent. Still, Cincinnati's collapse allows them to win the group. They'll be ranked behind all of the 5-0 group winners, but that point differential will put them ahead of most, if not all of the 4-1 group winners.....Ball St. had a strange run in group play - they beat BCS conference schools Cincinnati and Tennessee, but lost to LA-Lafayette. But, those 2 big wins earn them the #2 spot in the group, which is a really shocking finish for them. They'll get a second-round matchup against another #2 group finisher, and with a lucky draw, Ball St. could easily find themselves in the final 32 teams.... Tennessee's 3-point win over Cincinnati in week 4 earns them the tiebreaker with the Bearcats and the #3 spot, they advance....Cincinnati falls all the way to #4, but it's hard to see any other #4 team, let alone 4 #4 teams, having a better win than they had against Oklahoma St. (#1, +142), so there's a good chance they move on to stage 2. They'd be seeded #61 or #62, which would give them a stage 2 matchup against the #3 or #4 ranked team - and we've seen that the Bearcats can play with the best. LA-Lafayette and Kent St. are eliminated. Syracuse from group A moves closer to elimination (they'll be officially eliminated once two more #4 group finishers have a better "best win" than they did.)

collegesportsfanms · 01-04-2012, 01:21 AM

That's the beauty of using the whatifsports simulator. In a 1 game simulation of games, upsets can and do happen. Makes for a nice change of pace.

Hopefully Cincy moves on, that win over Okie St. means they deserve a chance in the round of 64.

I like the way you are choosing your 4 wildcard teams. I wish I had used wildcards for my college basketball world cup, instead I chose to just use the top 2 in each group. Unfortunately it's too late to scrap and start over, maybe next time if I do one, I'll figure out a better system than having 70 of 140 teams advancing. Good stuff, keep it up.

molson · 01-04-2012, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by collegesportsfanms

That's the beauty of using the whatifsports simulator. In a 1 game simulation of games, upsets can and do happen. Makes for a nice change of pace.

Hopefully Cincy moves on, that win over Okie St. means they deserve a chance in the round of 64.

I like the way you are choosing your 4 wildcard teams. I wish I had used wildcards for my college basketball world cup, instead I chose to just use the top 2 in each group. Unfortunately it's too late to scrap and start over, maybe next time if I do one, I'll figure out a better system than having 70 of 140 teams advancing. Good stuff, keep it up.

Ya, I tweaked a couple of things from the time I did this 2 years ago or so, you're always going to run into some kinks running something like this from scratch. Thanks for reading!

molson · 01-04-2012, 09:38 PM

GROUP D

#4 Stanford (PAC-12, 11-1, 8-1)
Arizona St (PAC-12, 6-6, 4-6)
Missouri (Big 12, 7-5, 5-4)
California (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5)
USC (PAC-12, 10-2, 7-2)
Colorado (PAC-12, 3-10, 2-7)

Week 1:
#4 Stanford 43, Arizona St. 31
California 20, Missouri 7
USC 41, Colorado 20

Group D, or "Group Pac-12 and Missouri" kicks off with a big win for Stanford. It wasn't a dominant win, but in this group, it was an important to get a win right off the bat. The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-10 lead early in the 2nd quarter, but Stanford exploded for 20 straight points before halftime. Arizona St. got back within 1 possession twice in the 2nd half, but both times Stanford answered.....Strong defense leads Cal over Missouri. The Golden Bears held the Tigers to 216 yards of total offense, they also intercepted Missouri 3 times.... Colorado is the weakest team in this tough group, so it's they're a critical win for everybody - USC takes care of business against them and win by 3 TDs. The Trojans got TDs on their first 3 possessions and were up 21-0 by the end of the first quarter.

Week 2:
Missouri 23, #4 Stanford 20
USC 66, Arizona St. 28
California 41, Colorado 23

Huge win for Missouri, scary loss for Stanford with the schedule they still have in front of them. Missouri jumped ahead early and withstood a furious Cardinal rally late. Missouri picked off off Luck 3 times and with 11 minutes left in the game, they led 23-7. But then it looked like it might all fall apart for the Tigers. Stanford got a 13 play, 93 yd TD drive. The 2-point conversion failed, but it was then 23-13 Missouri, with 5:33 left. Missouri got the ball on the ensuing kickoff, and then broke a 37 yard gain. But on the next play, Missouri RB Culver fumbled, and Stanford got it back down 10, with 4:48 left. 9 plays, 53 yds, and 1:52 later, Luck hits Fleener in the end zone to draw Stanford to within 3 points, with 1:52 left. Stanford kicked deep, got a 3-and-out, forced a punt, and got the ball back, still down 3, at their own 13, with just 1:26. But that was the end of the magic, Luck threw his 4th interception, and Missouri wins....USC was not similarly challenged, as they're looking like the team to beat in this group, destroying an Arizona St. team that gave Stanford a lot of problems. The Trojans led 66-14 at one point. USC WR Marqise Lee gets 7 catches for 168 yards and 3 TDs. Curtis McNeal rushes for 113 yards and 4 TDs. The USC defense forces 4 Sun Devil turnovers....Cal gradually pulled away against Colorado.

....

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

USC 2-0 (+59)
California 2-0 (+31)
Stanford 1-1 (+9)
Missouri 1-1 (-10)
Colorado 0-2 (-39)
Arizona St. 0-2 (-50)

Obviously the big story here is Missouri beating Stanford. Stanford still has an easy win v. Colorado coming up, but they also still have to deal with USC and California, who have both been impressive, so it won't be easy for the 4th ranked team in the country to even get to 3 wins. They should be sweating, but Luck probably won't have any more 4-interception games. USC and Cal both control their own destiny to win the group, but they both already played Colorado, so things will be tougher for both of them going forward. Missouri got the huge win against Stanford, but they still have a lot of work to do too.

molson · 01-04-2012, 10:33 PM

GROUP D

Week 3:
California 25, #4 Stanford 13
Arizona St. 40, Colorado 23
USC 38, Missouri 14

Stanford is officially in trouble with their second group loss, and USC still to come on their schedule. The Cardinal offense struggled again, had only 3 points with 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, by then they were down 13-3. They did manage to tie the game at 13 with a FG and TD on their next two possessions. Stanford had the ball to start out the 4th quarter with a chance to take the lead, but Luck fumbled the ball away. California responded with a 44-yard FG with 9:39 to take a lead they would never relinquish. Cal forced a punt, then got a TD drive, then turned Stanford over on downs, and then got another FG,and that was it.....The Sun Devils get their first win to at least stay in the conversation. They got 23 unanswered points between the middle of the 2nd quarter and very late in the 4th quarter.....The Trojans keep rolling. USC really shut down the Missouri offense in the 2nd half, keeping the Tigers scoreless, while they built their lead. Matt Barkley threw for 333 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 interceptions.

Week 4:
#4 Stanford 41, USC 38
Arizona St. 48, California 24
Missouri 20, Colorado 17

USC went into their game with Stanford on top of the world, and Stanford was fighting for survival, and the Cardinal pull off the close win. The teams alternated scores throughout the game - there were 8 lead changes and 3 ties. USC tied the game at 17 early in the 2nd quarter. From there, Stanford went up by a TD on three separate occasions, only to have USC tie it back up with a TD of their own three straight times, until we were at 38-38, with 4:47 left in the game. The teams then traded punts, and it looked like we were going to our first OT, as USC punted down to the Stanford 11 yard line with just 37 seconds left. But Luck got three completions, and setup the game winning 40-yard FG as time expired. On the day, Luck went 21-for-31, 335 yards, 3 TDs, no interceptions. USC RB Tyler Gaffney ran for 147 yards with 2 TDs on just 8 carries....With USC losing, the door was wide open for 3-0 Cal to take control of the group, but then they remembered that they were not in fact, an elite PAC-12 team, and they get thumped by suddenly-in-the-picture Arizona St....Missouri was nearly the latest version of the upset carnage, but they get past Colorado. It came down to FGs. The Buffalos tied the game with a 36-yard FG with 3:53 left. Misouri answered and took the lead with a 43-yard FG with 34 seconds left. Colorado got a decent kickoff return, and then a 39-yard running play, only to watch their kicker miss a 43-yard FG that would have tied the game, as time expired.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

USC 3-1 (+80)
California 3-1 (+19)
Stanford 2-2 (0)
Arizona St. 2-2 (-9)
Missouri 2-2 (-31)
Colorado 0-4 (-59)

....

Week 5 lineup:
#4 Stanford v. Colorado
Arizona St. v. Missouri
USC v. California

It's not surprising that there'd be a lot of parity and upsets in this group, and that things are still pretty wide open at the end. #4 Stanford will be the first ranked team that fails to win its group. Instead, the group winner will be the winner of the USC/California matchup. The loser of that game drops into what will likely be a trio of 3-2 teams: The USC/Cal loser, Stanford (assuming they beat Colorado), and the Missouri/Arizona St. winner (the Missouri/Arizona St. loser is out). Stanford does not control it's own destiny to even advance at this point. For example, if Stanford wins, USC beats Cal, and Missouri beats Arizona St, Stanford is going to end up in 4th place because they've lost to both Cal and Missouri. In many of the scenarios, point differential is going to matter, so big wins are important in week 5 for anyone that can get them.

molson · 01-04-2012, 10:59 PM

GROUP D

Week 5:
#4 Stanford 45, Colorado 30
Missouri 35, Arizona 13
California 37, USC 17

Stanford wins, and will now have to wait and see. An 18-yard TD pass got Colorado within 5 points with just 8 minutes to play. Stanford got a FG on their next possession to go up 8, so Colorado was down only 1 possession, and had the ball, with 5 minutes left. But their QB threw an interception there, and Stanford moved the ball, took some time off the clock, and got TD late to seal it. Stanford RB Stepfan Taylor ran for 207 yards and 2 TDs on 18 carries. Andrew Luck threw for 330 yards and 2 TDs.....Missouri survives for now with a strong win over Arizona St. Arizona St. never got closer than 2 possessions down after the Tigers started the 2nd half with a TD drive....California then wins the group in stunning fashion with a 20-point win over USC, who drops their second straight after seeming invincible in the first three weeks. The Golden Bears broke open a close game by scoring the final 23 points of the game. Cal RB Isi Sofele ran for 123 yards and 3 TDs on 24 carries. USC's final 5 possessions consisted of 2 punts, 2 Matt Barkley interceptions, and a turnover on downs.

....

Final Group D Standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 California 4-1 (+39)
#2 USC 3-2 (+60)
#3 Missouri 3-2 (-9)
#4 Stanford 3-2 (+15) (best win v. USC)
#5 Arizona St. 2-3 (-31)
#6 Colorado 0-5 (-74)

California wins the group outright, no tiebreaker needed, and will get a favorable spot next round and a great opportunity to get into the final 32. Winning 4 games in this group is impressive, Cal beat Missouri, Stanford, USC, and Colorado. USC, Missouri, and Stanford all had their ups and downs over group play to end up in a 3-way tie at 3-2. The teams are all 1-1 in that subgroup, so USC's early blowout wins over Colorado and Arizona St. are the difference - they have the best point differential by a huge margin and earn the second spot. Next, Missouri knocks Stanford out of the tournament and gets the #3 spot, by virtue of their week 2 upset win over the Cardinal. Stanford, ranked 4th in the final BCS poll, becomes the first ranked team to not only win their group, but fail to finish in the top 3. BUT, Stanford finishes #4, and is alive for a wild card. Their best win is pretty good, against 2nd-place USC, who had that gaudy +60 point differential. It's not as good a win as fellow wild card contender Cincinnati has, (the Bearcats beat group winner Oklahoma St), but it's better than the best win of the previous 2 4th place teams, Arizona and Syracuse. Arizona St. and Colorado are eliminated.

molson · 01-04-2012, 11:05 PM

To recap after 4 groups:

Advanced to Stage II
#1 LSU (SEC, 13-0, 8-0)
Rutgers (Big East, 8-4, 4-3)
Eastern Michigan (MAC, 6-6, 4-4)
#2 Alabama (SEC, 11-1, 7-1)
Utah (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5)
Florida St. (ACC, 8-4, 5-3)
#3 Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 11-1, 8-1)
Ball St. (MAC, 6-6, 4-4)
Tennessee (SEC, 5-7, 1-7)
California (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5)
USC (PAC-12, 10-2, 7-2)
Missouri (Big 12, 7-5, 5-4)

Still In Wild Card Contention (4 teams with "best wins" advance)
Cincinnati (Big East, 9-3, 5-2)
#4 Stanford (PAC-12, 11-1, 8-1)
Arizona (PAC-12, 4-8, 2-7)
Syracuse (Big East 5-7, 1-6)

Eliminated
LA-Monroe (Sun Belt, 4-8, 3-5)
UNLV (MWC, 2-10, 1-6)
Maryland (ACC, 2-10, 1-7)
Washington (PAC-12, 7-5, 5-4)
LA-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 8-4, 6-2)
Kent St. (MAC, 5-7, 4-4)
Arizona St (PAC-12, 6-6, 4-6)
Colorado (PAC-12, 3-10, 2-7)

molson · 01-05-2012, 10:50 PM

GROUP E

#5 Oregon (PAC-12, 11-1, 8-1)
Ohio (MAC, 9-4, 6-2)
North Texas (Sun Belt, 5-7, 4-4)
Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt, 2-10, 1-7)
Toledo (MAC, 8-4, 7-1)
Mississippi St. (SEC, 6-6, 2-6)

Week 1:
#5 Oregon 30, Ohio 16
North Texas 38, Middle Tennessee 30
Toledo 56, Mississippi St. 17

Oregon has a much easier path than Stanford, it's actually a ridiculously easy path, and I expected a lot more fireworks in their opening game against Ohio. Ohio even led 13-7 until the closing seconds of the first half when Oregon got a 22-yard TD pass to make it 14-13. Oregon controlled the game from there. Oregon RB Kenjon Barner ran for 162 yards and 3 TDs on just 14 carries....the last group had a lot of PAC-12 matchups, here we get a Sun Belt matchup - North Texas makes its early case to advance with a win against Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee had scored 3 unanswered TDs in the 3rd quarter to take a 27-21 lead. But after the teams traded FGs to start the 4th quarter, North Texas got a TD, then intercepted Middle Tennessee, then got another TD, and that was the game. North Texas QB Derek Thompson threw for 292 yards and FIVE TDs (and one interception)....One of the storylines of this group was how a bottom-level SEC team like Mississippi St. would do against a strong MAC team like Toledo. As it turns out, the Rockets just beat up the Bulldogs all over the field. Toledo led 43-0 at one point, it took two Bulldog TDs in the final 5 minutes of the game for things to be even this close. Toledo RB Adonis Thomas ran for 207 yards and 4 TDs on 28 carries. He also caught 4 passes for 60 yards.

Week 2:
#5 Oregon 52, North Texas 7
Toledo 20, Ohio 19
Mississippi St. 28, Middle Tennessee 17

The Ducks beat up the Mean Green. LaMichael James rushes for 215 yard and 2 TDs, and catches 2 passes for 66 yards and a receiving TD....Toledo gets their second win by edging the Ohio Bobcats by 1 point. Ohio led 19-24 with 6 minutes left in the game. Toledo took over the ball, and drove 55 yards in 8 plays to get the go-ahead TD with 2:31 left. Ohio could only get to the Toledo 47 yard line before turning the ball over on downs....Mississippi St. recovers from their embarrassing week 1 defeat with a win over Middle Tennessee. The bulldogs never trailed, and Middle Tennessee never got within one possession after the first quarter.

.....

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Oregon 2-0 (+59)
Toledo 2-0 (+40)
Mississippi St. 1-1 (-28)
North Texas 1-1 (-37)
Ohio 0-2 (-15)
Middle Tennessee 0-2 (-19)

It's a little silly how easy Oregon's path is here, but they'll need a few more big blowouts to rival some of the other group-winning, 5-0 teams....As for the rest, Toledo has emerged as the best for now - the blowout of Mississippi St. was huge, I'm not sure who else can challenge the Rockets here (other than Oregon obviously)....Mississippi St's BCS talent should probably rise to the top, and if they can handle North Texas and Ohio in the upcoming weeks, they'll advance.

molson · 01-06-2012, 10:50 PM

GROUP E

Week 3:
#5 Oregon 24, Middle Tennessee 13
Ohio 37, Mississippi St. 27
Toledo 51, North Texas 3

The Ducks are not all that impressive against the Blue Raiders, but they get their 3rd win. Oregon just kind of coasted here, they led 24-3 entering the final quarter, and Middle Tennessee got 10 unanswered points in the final quarter to make the game appear closer than it was. Still, holding Oregon to 24 points is impressive. Oregon only got 18 first downs and 306 yards of total offense.....Mississippi St. is now in big trouble after dropping their 2nd game, with Oregon still on their schedule. Both MAC teams in the group have now beaten the Bulldogs. Mississippi St. led 27-21 with 12 minutes left in the third quarter, but that was the end of their scoring, it was also the last time they got the ball over midfield. Ohio got 3 FGs in their next 4 possessions, while forcing punts on 4 straight Bulldog possessions. A Bobcat TD in the final minute capped it off....Toledo has separated themselves from the non-Oregon part of the group with a huge blowout of North Texas to go 3-0. It was 42-0 Rockets at halftime.

Week 4:
Toledo 34, #5 Oregon 31.
Ohio 41, Middle Tennessee 19
Mississippi St. 38, North Texas 0

In a stunner, Oregon falls to Toledo. That will cost the Ducks the the top spot in the group. Toledo meanwhile, moves to 4-0, and clinches the group with that win. The Rockets jumped out to a 20-7 lead with about 3 minutes left in the first half. Oregon had 3 straight 3-and-outs early in the 2nd quarter. Then Oregon woke up a bit, with 2 rushing TDs late in the first half to take a 21-20 lead into halftime. In the third quarter, Oregon got the ball to start but missed a FG. Toledo responded with a long TD drive to take a 27-21 lead. Oregon got a FG on their next possession, and it was 27-24 Toledo entering the final quarter. The teams traded TD drives, and then traded punts. Toledo got the ball with 3:12 left, and they were able to run out the clock with the help of an Oregon pass interference penalty....Ohio wins their 2nd straight after dropping their first two, they blowout winless Middle Tennessee....Mississippi St. pitches a shutout against North Texas. The game was scoreless until the Bulldogs got a TD with 10:38 left in the 3rd quarter. Then the Bulldog offense exploded for 4 TDs and a FG in their final 6 possessions. North Texas certainly had their chances for points, their kicker missed 3 FGs, and their RB was stopped at the Bulldog goal line on a 4th and 1.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Toledo 4-0 (+91)
Oregon 3-1 (+67)
Ohio 2-2 (+17)
Mississippi St. 2-2 (0)
North Texas 1-3 (-123)
Middle Tennessee 0-4 (-52)

...

Week 5 matchups:
#5 Oregon v. Mississippi St.
Ohio v. North Texas
Toledo v. Middle Tennessee

Going into the final week, Toledo has already clinched the #1 spot in the group. Even if they lose and Oregon wins, Toledo owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. They still have a lot to play for against Middle Tennessee though. A huge blowout win would give them a 5-0 record and a huge point differential. That's probably good enough for a top 10 seed going into Round 2, which would earn then a game against one of the weaker advancing teams....The Ducks, despite the slip-up against Toledo, have clinched advancement. They get the #2 spot either with a win over Mississippi St, or with an Ohio win against North Texas. (Even if Oregon lost, they'd likely win a 3-way tiebreaker with Mississippi St. and Ohio due to point differential.) Worst case scenario for them, is they lose to Mississippi St, and Ohio loses to North Texas. Then Oregon and Mississippi St. would finish tied at 3-2, and the Bulldogs would win that tiebreaker and get the #2 spot, but Oregon would still end up #3....If Mississippi St. loses to Oregon, then Ohio gets in if they beat North Texas. If Mississippi St. and Ohio both lose, then it's a 3-way tie for the #3 spot, and since each would be 1-1 in that subgroup, it would come down to point differential, where Ohio currently has a 17 point edge over the Bulldogs (and North Texas is 100+ points behind both).

molson · 01-06-2012, 11:28 PM

GROUP E

Week 5:
#5 Oregon 27, Mississippi St. 7
North Texas 33, Ohio 29
Toledo 44, Middle Tennessee 20

Oregon does enough to get by Mississippi St pretty easily, but it was still an uninspiring group play run for them. Their defense was strong though, they held the Bulldogs to 243 total yards of offense and 16 first downs....North Texas controls the game and holds off a late Ohio rally to actually finish tied for 3rd place in the group with a point differential worse than -100. The Mean Green dominated the first 3 quarters of the game, and led 33-10 with 8 minutes to go. Ohio did get a TD there to make it 33-16 (they missed a 2-point try), but it took them too long to score again. They had to punt on their next possession, and while they did hold North Texas off the scoreboard, they didn't cut the lead any further until a TD with 1:42 left to make it 33-22. Ohio couldn't recover the onside kick, but forced a North Texas punt, and then got another TD, but only as time expired. That left them still a few points short....Toledo completes a very unlikely 5-0 run. They never trailed, and forced 6 Middle Tennessee turnovers. Toledo RB Adonis Thomas ran for 207 yards and 2 TDs on 28 carries, and he also caught 2 passes for 22 yards.

......

Final Group E Standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Toledo 5-0 (+115)
#2 Oregon 4-1 (+87)
#3 Ohio 2-3 (+13)
#4 Mississippi St. 2-3 (-20) (best win v. North Texas)
#5 North Texas 2-3 (-119)
#6 Middle Tennessee 0-5 (-76)

Toledo pulls off the 5-0 record and solid point differential. Their point differential isn't as good as 5-0 LSU (+170), and 5-0 Alabama (+142), but as of right now, they're #3 going into the next round, and it's hard to see too many teams passing them. Oregon's upset loss will cost them about 20 spots in the rankings for next round, but they'll still be somewhere in the 20s, and they'll still get a game against another 2nd place team that they'll be the huge favorite in. Ohio, Mississippi St, and North Texas all finish 2-3, and they were all 1-1 in that subgroup. So it came down to point differential, where Ohio finished 37 points ahead of Mississippi St, and ridiculous 132 points ahead of North Texas. So Ohio advances because their 3 losses were by a total of only 19 points. Mississippi St. gets the #4 spot via head-to-head tiebreaker over North Texas. The bulldogs though, only beat the two worst teams in the group, and their best win was against North Texas (#5 in their group, 2-3, -119). That's likely not going to be enough to advance, but it keeps them alive for now, as it beats out Syracuse's best win (Louisiana-Monroe, 1-4 #5 in their group). Along with Syracuse, North Texas and Middle Tennessee are officially eliminated.

So, the 4 wild card teams to beat are now currently (best loss in parenthesis, "best loss" is determined by group rank, then record, then point differential):

Cincinnati (v. Oklahoma St, #1 group ranking, 4-1, +142)
#4 Stanford (v. USC, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +60)
Arizona (v. Utah, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +17)
Mississippi St. (v. North Texas, #5 group ranking, 2-3, -119)

molson · 01-07-2012, 09:52 AM

I realized that as far as the "best wins" and wild cards, I shouldn't consider point differential in the games between the wild card contender and their "best win" opponent. if Cincinnati had blown out Oklahoma St for example, that shouldn't be held against them if a "best win" tiebreaker came down to Oklahoma St's point differential. So I will exclude those games. It doesn't make a difference yet, that tiebreaker hasn't come into play.

So this is the current 4 wild card teams to beat now currently (best loss in parenthesis, "best loss" is determined by group rank, then record, then point differential excluding game against wild card contender):

Cincinnati (v. Oklahoma St, #1 group ranking, 4-1, +147)
#4 Stanford (v. USC, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +63)
Arizona (v. Utah, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +22)
Mississippi St. (v. North Texas, #5 group ranking, 2-3, -81)

Mississippi St. benefits the most from this in the short term, because they beat North Texas by 38, but that win still isn't going to hold up against other 4th place teams in the weeks to come

britrock88 · 01-07-2012, 10:40 AM

Did you go backward on correcting OK State, USC, and Utah's differentials? Shouldn't they be better after excluding the loss?

molson · 01-07-2012, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88

Did you go backward on correcting OK State, USC, and Utah's differentials? Shouldn't they be better after excluding the loss?

Edit: Ah, now I see what you mean, yes, I went the wrong way, corrected in the post above yours.

molson · 01-07-2012, 09:43 PM

GROUP F

#6 Arkansas (SEC 11-1, 7-1)
Notre Dame (Ind, 8-4)
Louisville (Big East, 7-5, 5-2)
Bowling Green (MAC, 5-7, 3-5)
North Carolina St. (ACC, 7-5, 4-4)
Ohio St (Big 10, 6-6, 3-5)

Week 1:
#6 Arkansas 26, Notre Dame 21
Louisville 20, Bowling Green 18
Ohio St. 29, North Carolina St. 14

Stanford proved earlier that a top-10 ranking doesn't guarantee you advancement past stage I, and this group is very tough, just like Stanford's group D was. The Razorbacks get a big opening win against who could be their biggest competition in this group, Notre Dame. Arkansas jumped out to a 10-0 lead with a TD and FG on their first two possessions. After a slow start on offense, Notre Dame got a TD to close out the first quarter, to make it 10-7 Arkansas. The teams traded punts for a while until the Fighting Irish took a 14-7 lead late in the first half, and Arkansas quickly got down the field for a FG as the first half ended, making it 14-13 Notre Dame at halftime. Arkansas then forced punts on 5 straight Notre Dame possessions, while they got a TD and two FGs, to take a 26-14 lead with 13:20 to go in the game. Notre Dame finally answered with a long TD drive in the 4th to get within 6 with 4 minutes to go in the game. Arkansas was able to run some time off the clock, getting one first down before they had to punt it back to Notre Dame with 1:48 left. The Fighting Irish were unable to get a first down, and turned the ball over on downs to clinch the win for Arkansas....Bowling Green is the one relatively easy win for everyone in the group, at least in theory, and Louisville gets past them, though only by 2 points. After the Cardinals jumped out 14-0 early, Bowling Green scored an unanswered 18 points - which consisted of a TD, safety, and 3 FGs - and led 18-14 entering the final quarter. Louisville got a FG with 9:39 left to draw within 1 point. Bowling Green offense then stalled - they had 5 4th quarter possessions, in which they had 4 3-and-outs, and an interception. That gave Louisville a chance, but they were still down 1 with 1:30 left when they started at their own 24 yard line. They converted a 4th and 7, and kept marching down the field, finally hitting a 32-yard FG with 5 seconds left to get the win.....Ohio St. gets a big win over NC State. NC State led 14-13 after their first possession of the 2nd quarter netted them a TD, but Ohio St. took the lead and pulled away after that, scoring the final 16 points of the game.

Week 2:
#6 Arkansas 35, Louisville 12
Notre Dame 34, North Carolina St. 13
Bowling Green 24, Ohio St. 16

Arkansas taking care of business so far, looking to end the streak of 3 straight seeded teams failing to go 5-0 (and in 2 of those cases, failing to even win their group). This was a weird game. The only first half scoring was 4 Louisville FGs, so the Cardinals led 12-0 at halftime. Arkansas couldn't score in the first half, and QB Tyler Wilson threw two picks - including 1 in the red zone. But the 2nd half was all Arkansas, where they outscored Louisville 35-0. Overall, Arkansas turned the ball over 4 times, but they're happy to be 2-0 with Bowling Green still on their schedule....The Fighting Irish rebound from their week 1 loss by blasting North Carolina St, who falls to 0-2, with Arkansas still on their schedule. The teams traded TDs in the first half, and it was 14-14 at halftime. But Notre Dame dominated the second half, outscoring North Carolina St 20-0.....Bowling Green gets a big upset v. in-state rival Ohio St. Bowling Green led 14-13 entering the final quarter, and then got a TD drive on their first possession of the final quarter to go up 8, 21-13. Ohio St. got a FG to get within 5, but Bowling Green came right back with a FG of their own to go up 8 again, and that was the final margin. Ohio St. went all run in this game, rushing 56 times for 273 yards, but got only 12 first downs in the game. The Buckeyes got only a total of 43 yards through the air. They only attempted 8 passes, and were sacked 3 times.

....

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Arkansas 2-0 (+28)
Notre Dame 1-1 (+16)
Ohio St. 1-1 (+7)
Bowling Green 1-1 (+6)
Louisville 1-1 (-21)
North Carolina St. 0-2 (-36)

Arkansas is in control, and they still have non-BCS Bowling Green and 0-2 North Carolina St, so they're looking good to possibly be the first seeded team in 3 groups to run the table. Notre Dame looks pretty good too, they couldn't beat Arkansas, but they thumped NC State and now have an easier path in front of them. The shocker of the first two weeks was Bowling Green over Ohio St. I don't think Bowling Green is a threat to advance, but that loss could really hurt Ohio St. They're in a position now where they probably have to beat either Notre Dame or Arkansas to advance. Ohio St's loss, and North Carolina St's bad start could open the door for Louisville to advance.

molson · 01-07-2012, 11:04 PM

GROUP F

Week 3:
#6 Arkansas 47, Bowling Green 44
Notre Dame 41, Ohio St. 34
Louisville 12, North Carolina St. 10

Arkansas edges upset-minded Bowling Green in a wild game. Bowling Green kicked off the scoring with a FG in the first quarter, but Arkansas got TDs on their next two possessions, and they appeared to be rolling, up 14-3 at the end of the first quarter. But then things started getting interesting early in the 2nd quarter. Arkansas was forced to punt, and Bowling Green got a TD drive. Arkansas was forced to punt again, and Bowling Green blocked the punt, which setup a short TD drive, and they were suddenly up 17-14. On Bowling Green's next possession though, they threw a pick-six, and Arkansas regained the lead. The teams traded FGs over the rest of the quarter and Arkansas led 27-20 at halftime. The Razorbacks looked to take control to start the 2nd half - they got a FG on their first possession, held Bowling Green to a 3-and-out, and then got a FG on their second possession, to take a 34-20 lead with 8:13 left in the 3rd quarter. But Bowling Green wouldn't go away. They got a long TD drive, forced an Arkansas punt, and then immediately got 66-yard TD run to tie the game at 34 entering the final quarter. Arkansas got an early 4th quarter TD to go up 41-34. The teams then traded FGs on their next two possession, and it was 44-37 Arkansas with 3:25 left. Bowling Green then went on an 11 play, 59 yds TD drive that included two 4th down conversions. That tied the game at 44 with 1:21 left. The Razorbacks took the ensuing kickoff and got a big 15-yard facemask penalty, and a 23-yard pass, to setup a 42-yard FG as time expired. Arkansas kicker Zach Hocker nailed it, his 4th FG of the day without a miss, and Arkansas survives....In another high-scoring affair, Notre Dame takes a big step towards advancement by knocking off Ohio St. Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees through for 332 yards and 5 TDs, with 1 interception. This game had 7 lead changes, with the final one coming via a TJ Jones 4 yd TD pass from Rees in the 3rd quarter to make it 27-24 Notre Dame. Notre Dame got a TD on their first possession of the 4th quarter to make it 34-24, and Ohio St. never again got closer than one possession until a TD with 35 seconds left got them within 7. Ohio couldn't recover the ensuing onside kick....In a very different kind of game, Louisville goes to 2-1 and keeps North Carolina St. winless in a low scoring game. In a key first quarter stretch, Louisville blocked an NC State FG attempt, then drove down the field for a successful FG, then forced a NC State fumble on the next play from scrimmage, and then got another FG drive to go up 6-0. NC St. got a FG early in the 2nd quarter to make it 6-3 Louisville, and that was all the scoring until the final quarter. NC St. who lost 3 fumbles in the game, lost another one late in the 3rd quarter to give Lousiville great field position. The Cardinals took advantage with a 20-yard TD pass to go up 13-3 early in the 4th quarter. NC State finally got a 44-yard TD on the last play of the game, but it was too late. This was a sloppy game, with 7 total turnovers.

Week 4:
#6 Arkansas 24, North Carolina St. 6
Notre Dame 53, Bowling Green 28
Ohio St. 46, Louisville 24

The Razorbacks get win #4 by shutting down winless NC State. The Wolfpack turned over the ball 3 more times. NC St. did actually manage to get more first downs over the games than Arkansas did, but could never get in the end zone...The Fighting Irish are the first team in the group to crack 50 points, as they handle Bowling Green. Pesky Bowing Green actually had a 28-27 lead entering the final quarter. But Notre Dame scored on all 6 of their 4th quarter possessions, while Bowling Green couldn't get a single first down on any of their 6 4th quarter possessions (they also threw 2 picks in the quarter). The QBs were not sharp, Notre Dame's Tommy Rees had 3 picks, and Bowling Green's Matt Schilz had 4. Notre Dame's Cierre Wood rushed for 217 yards and 3 TDs on 25 carries, and also caught 4 passes for 29 yards....Louisville has the chance to put the final nail in Ohio St's coffin's, but the Buckeyes come alive for a big win. Ohio St. led 34-7 early in the 2nd quarter. Louisville stormed back to get within 10, but then Ohio St. re-established control and put the Cardinals away. Ohio St. got 2 FGs and a TD in the final 5 minutes of the game, with the help of a Louisville interception. Ohio St. RB Dan Herron had a huge day, rushing for 245 yards and 3 TDs

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Arkansas 4-0 (+49)
Notre Dame 3-1 (+48)
Ohio St. 2-2 (+22)
Louisville 2-2 (-41)
Bowling Green 1-3 (-22)
North Carolina St. 0-4 (-56)

...

Week 5 matchups:
#6 Arkansas v. Ohio St.
Notre Dame v. Louisville
Bowling Green v. North Carolina St.

Arkansas hasn't exactly blown away the competition in this group, but they have clinched the group's top spot. Even if they lose and Notre Dame wins, they win that head-to-head tiebreaker....Notre Dame has virtually guaranteed for advancement Worst case for them, they lose to Louisville, and Ohio St. beats Arkansas, that would put Notre Dame/Ohio St/Louisville all at 3-2, and since head-to-head there is a wash, it would come down to point differential. Notre Dame has a 26 point lead there at the moment, so they should be good. But theoretically, if they were blown out, and/or Ohio St. blew out Arkansas, then Ohio St. could grab the #2 spot, and then Notre Dame would lose the tiebreaker with Louisville for the #3 spot having lost to them week 5 - but all of that is obviously extremely unlikely, things look very good for the Irish....The last spot is 99.9% likely to come down to Ohio St. or Louisville, who both play very tough games against Arkansas, and Notre Dame, respectfully. If they both lose (or both win), Ohio St. would get in via head-to-head tiebreaker. It would take a miracle, but Bowling Green is still technically alive. If they win, and Ohio St. and Louisville both lose, all 3 teams would finish tied 2-3 for the 3rd spot. Head-to-head is a wash, so Bowling Green would just have to overcome a current 44-point point differential deficit with Ohio St.

molson · 01-07-2012, 11:34 PM

GROUP F

Week 5:
#6 Arkansas 41, Ohio St. 14
Louisville 19, Notre Dame 17
Bowling Green 42, North Carolina St. 20

The Razorbacks finally get a blowout in their final group stage game, and go to 5-0. Ohio St. scored only on the first and last possessions of the game, as otherwise, it was all Arkansas. Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson went 26-for-33 for 343 yards and 3 TDs, with no interceptions. He also rushed for a TD....Louisville gets a modest upset against Notre Dame to close out group play, paired with the Ohio St. loss, that will earn them advancement. Louisville was leading 16-14 when Notre Dame took the lead with a 25-yard FG with 3:49 left. Louisville, trailing by one point, received the kickoff and drove down the field, 64 yards in 14 plays, including a conversion on 4th and 1. They got a 21-yard FG as time expired to get the win. The kicking ended up being the difference, Louisville kicker Chris Philpott went 4-for-4 on FG attempts, and Notre Dame David Ruffer only went 1-for-3, missing from 38 and 49....NC State, who I definitely didn't see as clearly the weakest team in this group, ends up that way, going winless after a bad loss to Bowling Green. NC State took a 20-17 lead early in the 3rd quarter, but Bowing Green got the final 25 points of the game to run away with it.

...

Final Group F Standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Arkansas 5-0 (+76)
#2 Louisville 3-2 (-39)
#3 Notre Dame 3-2 (+46)
#4 Bowling Green 2-3 (0) (best win v. Ohio St.)
#5 Ohio St 2-3 (-5)
#6 North Carolina St. 0-5 (-78)

Arkansas becomes the 4th team to go 5-0 in group stage play, but they do it with the smallest point differential yet. In this tough group though, it's a good accomplishment to run the table. Louisville's week 5 upset of Notre Dame propels them into the #2 spot, thanks to earning the tiebreaker v. Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish settle for the 3rd spot, but with the 3-2 record and strong point differential, they'll be lined up with one of the weaker group stage winners in stage 2....Ohio St can't even get the #4 spot, they lose that to Bowling Green via head-to-head tiebreaker. So two more BCS schools, Ohio St. and hapless North Carolina St., are eliminated....Bowling Green's best win was against 5th place Ohio St, who has a +3 point differential when you exclude the Ohio St./Bowling Green game. That is good enough to crack the top 4 wild contenders for now, but probably won't hold up over the next 14 groups. But with that, previous wild card contender Mississippi St. is officially eliminated.

So this is the current 4 wild card teams to beat (best loss in parenthesis, "best loss" is determined by group rank, then record, then point differential excluding game against wild card contender):

Cincinnati (v. Oklahoma St, #1 group ranking, 4-1, +147)
#4 Stanford (v. USC, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +63)
Arizona (v. Utah, #2 group ranking, 3-2, +22)
Bowling Green (v. Ohio St. #5 group ranking, 2-3, +3)

molson · 01-07-2012, 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88

Did you go backward on correcting OK State, USC, and Utah's differentials? Shouldn't they be better after excluding the loss?

You're right, I see that now, and made that correction going forward. Thanks!!

12-29-2011, 09:30 PM	#26
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*Group A* Week 3: #1 LSU 27, Syracuse 0 Louisiana-Monroe 31, UNLV 17 Rutgers 10, Eastern Michigan 7 LSU doesn't score a ton of points but they completely shut down the Orange. Still, it was close for a while, 10-0 halftime, LSU didn't really run away with things until the 4th quarter...LA-Monroe jumped out to a 17-0 lead, and then held off UNLV for their first win....Rutgers survives a defensive struggle with Eastern Michigan. All the scoring was in the 2nd quarter. Eastern Michigan fumbled the ball on the Rutgers 1 yard line in the 3rd quarter. They didn't get another first down until the final drive the game, where they got into Rutgers territory but threw an interception. Week 4: #1 LSU 30, Eastern Michigan 0 Syracuse 16, Louisiana-Monroe 10 Rutgers 20, UNLV 14 LSU pitches their 2nd straight shutout. They've given up a total of 20 points in their 4 games thus far....Syracuse avoids disaster, and Louisiana-Monroe blows a chance to get their 2nd group win. The game was tied at 10 with about 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter until Syracuse got a 26-yard FG. LA-Monroe went 3-and-out, punted, and Syracuse drove 57 yards for another FG with 55 seconds left. LA-Monroe couldn't get a first down after the ensuing kickoff, and Syracuse escapes....In another close game, their 2nd straight, Rutgers holds on to beat UNLV. Rutgers led 17-0 at halftime, and it was still 17-0 in the final minute of the 3rd quarter, but then UNLV made things interesting with an offensive flurry. They got a 74-yard TD drive to close out the 3rd quarter, held Rutgers to a 3-and-out, and then got a 63-yard TD pass a few plays later to close the gap to 17-14. However, they never got closer than the Rutgers 35 yard line after that. ... Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis: LSU 4-0 (+110) Rutgers 3-1 (-21) Syracuse 2-2 (+18) Eastern Michigan 1-3 (-41) Louisiana-Monroe 1-3 (-14) UNLV 1-3 (-52) ... Week 5 lineup: #1 LSU v. UNLV LA-Monroe v. Rutgers Syracuse v. Eastern Michigan There have been some close games that could have mixed things up if they went another way, but as it is, the three BCS schools have taken care of business, and the three non-BCS schools have beat up on each other, preventing any of them from rising up to challenge for advancement. LSU has already clinched the #1 spot due to owning the tiebreaker with Rutgers, they'll look for another shutout and to pad the point differential for seeding in the next round. Rutgers has already clinched the #2 spot and will advance. They have a chance to improve their terrible -21 point differential against LA-Monroe in the final week, and try to improve their Round 2 positioning. Is is very likely that the Syracuse v. Eastern Michigan game will determine the #3 spot (there is an outside chance that if Eastern Michigan wins, and UNLV somehow beats LSU, Syracuse could win a multi-team tiebreaker due to point differential). Last edited by molson : 12-29-2011 at 09:30 PM.

12-29-2011, 09:48 PM	#27
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*Group A* Week 5: #1 LSU 63, UNLV 3 Rutgers 30, Louisiana-Monroe 14 Eastern Michigan 30, Syracuse 7 LSU's shutout streak ends, just barely....The wins haven't been very impressive for Rutgers, but they get to 4-1. Even though the point differential is still bad, there probably won't be a lot of 4-1 teams to rank ahead of them....And in the stunner of the tournament so far, Eastern Michigan, who lost to UNLV, who had in turn lost to Syracuse by 43 points, blows out the Orange and advances to next round. The Eagles rushed for 307 yards. .... Final Group A Standings, with point differential in parenthesis #1 LSU 5-0 (+170) #2 Rutgers 4-1 (-5) #3 Eastern Michigan 2-3 (-18) #4 Syracuse 2-3 (-5) (Best win v. LA-Monroe) #5 Louisiana-Monroe 1-4 (-30) #6 UNLV 1-4 (-112) LSU's domination is evidenced by the fact that they're the only team to finish with a positive point differential. It's tough to finish 4-1 and have a negative point differential, but the Scarlet Knights pulled it off - still, they advance, and the 4-1 ranking should give them decent positioning and a winnable stage 2 game. Eastern Michigan's stunning week 5 win gives them the tiebreaker over Syracuse and puts them into the next round. Louisiana-Monroe and UNLV are the first two teams eliminated. Syracuse finishes #4, and they are thus still technically alive, since the 4 fourth-place teams with the best individual wins advance. However, Syracuse's best win (v. LA-Monroe, #5 group rank, 1-4 record, -30 point differential), is not likely to hold up. Last edited by molson : 01-04-2012 at 01:19 AM.

12-30-2011, 08:53 PM	#29
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP B* #2 Alabama (SEC, 11-1, 7-1) Florida St. (ACC, 8-4, 5-3) Maryland (ACC, 2-10, 1-7) Washington (PAC-12, 7-5, 5-4) Utah (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5) Arizona (PAC-12, 4-8, 2-7) ---------------------- Week 1: #2 Alabama 37, Florida St. 13 Washington 47, Maryland 34 Arizona 24, Utah 19 In this tough group, it was important for 'bama to get off to a big start, and they did. They led 17-0 early in the 2nd quarter and were never really challenged by Florida St...Washington plays with fire a little bit before getting a must-win v. lowly Maryland....Arizona gets a modest upset against Pac-12 rival Utah. And Utah wasn't even as close as the final score indicated, they got 2 TDs in the final 5 minutes to make the final score respectable. Week 2: #2 Alabama 58, Maryland 14 Utah 34, Florida St. 17 Arizona 38, Washington 23 'Bama takes advantage of the worst team in the group to pad their point differential. Alabama scored the first 45 points of that game, leaving nothing to chance....Utah rebounds from their upset loss to Arizona with an upset win v. Florida St. That game was tied at 17 going into the final quarter, but Utah outscored Florida St. 17-0 from then on to get the big win...Arizona gets their 2nd straight win against a Pac-12 rival and puts themselves in great position to advance with by getting past Washington. The Huskies were never that close - they were within 8 in the 4th quarter, and had the ball, but only got to their own 45 yard line before punting. Then Arizona got a FG, and Washington never got any closer. ... Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis: Alabama 2-0 (+68) Arizona 2-0 (+20) Utah 1-1 (+12) Washington 1-1 (-2) Florida St. 0-2 (-41) Maryland 0-2 (-57) I had thought that Florida St. might be the 2nd best team in the group, but they're in big trouble now after that loss to Utah. They probably have to beat Washington, Maryland, and Arizona now to advance....And Arizona has really surprised, pulling back to back upsets over Washington and Utah to put themselves in great position to advance - they haven't even played Maryland yet, and a win there, and they're probably moving on. Washington and Utah don't play until week 5, but that game is already shaping up to be an elimination game. Last edited by molson : 01-03-2012 at 10:53 PM.

01-03-2012, 10:33 PM	#30
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP B* Week 3: #2 Alabama 45, Washington 6 Florida St. 34, Arizona 17 Utah 22, Maryland 17 Alabama rolls, and seems to be putting up a better point differential than LSU did in group A....Arizona misses out on a big opportunity to go to 3-0 before they have to deal with Alabama, and with a winnable Maryland game still on the schedule....In the closest game of the week, Utah gets a must-win v. Maryland. Maryland led 17-12 entering the 4th quarter. Utah got an early 4th quarter FG to get within 2, and then held Maryland to a 3-and-out, and then Utah got a TD drive for the final margin. The Terrapins got down to the Utah 15 yard line with less than 3 minutes to play, but they turned the ball over on downs. Utah's John White got 185 yards rushing on 32 carries. Week 4: #2 Alabama 27, Utah 10 Florida St. 27, Washington 14 Arizona 38, Maryland 17 The Crimson Tide get their closest challenge yet, and Utah led 10-3 with about 5 minutes left in the first half, but Alabama controlled the game from there.....In a critical game between two 1-2 teams, Florida St. gets the big win to rally from 0-2 to 2-2. The Huskies never led after going up 3-0 in the first quarter. They did get as close at 3 points in the middle of the 4th quarter, and had the ball at midfield after getting an interception, but they had to punt, the Seminoles got a TD on their next possession, and that was the game....Arizona gets critical win #3 against Maryland, the Wildcats jump out 28-0 early in the 2nd quarter and cruise from there. ..... Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis: Alabama 4-0 (+124) Arizona 3-1 (+20) Utah 2-2 (0) Florida St. 2-2 (-11) Washington 1-3 (-54) Maryland 0-4 (-79) ... Week 5 lineup: #2 Alabama v. Arizona Florida St. v. Maryland Washington v. Utah Arizona, a Pac-12 doormat this year, is the surprise team of the tournament thus far, and they've gotten there by beating conference rivals Washington and Utah. The winner of the Week 5 Arizona v. Alabama game wins this group. Alabama has clinched a spot in the next round, but Arizona actually hasn't yet. If Arizona loses, and Utah and Florida St. both win, those three teams all finish 3-2, with only 2 spots available. They're all 1-1 within that sub-group, so it would come down to point differential for spot #2, and then head-to-head for the other teams for spot #3....Washington is virtually eliminated. They would have to beat Utah by about 60+ points, and have Florida St. lose to Maryland. Then they'd win a 3-way tiebreaker with Florida St. and Utah for the third spot. Still, they can spoil things for Utah. Last edited by molson : 01-03-2012 at 10:51 PM.

01-03-2012, 11:13 PM	#31
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP B* Week 5: #2 Alabama 38, Arizona 20 Florida St. 27, Maryland 16 Utah 37, Washington 20 The Wildcats make things interesting, and the relatively close margin may help them in tiebreakers, but they fall to Alabama. Arizona got an 80-yard TD pass on their 2nd offensive play to go up 7-3. But then the Crimson Tide got a TD drive, and intercepted Arizona for another TD a few plays later to go up 17-7. Arizona hung in there though. They got a FG on their next possession, then traded punts with Alabama for much of the 2nd quarter before intercepting an Alabama pass, which led to another Arizona TD. That tied the game at 17 with 6 minutes left in the first half. Then Alabama scored to go up 7, and Arizona got a FG just before halftime to make it 24-20, Alabama. Arizona wouldn't score again, and Alabama would get a couple more touchdowns to get a somewhat comfortable margin in the end.....Maryland led Florida St. 6-0, and then 9-7, but the Seminoles got things together in time to get the win and send Maryland to 0-5....Washington ends their disappointing run with a loss to Utah. The Utes had just a 1-point lead at halftime, 21-20, but outscored the Huskies 16-0 in the second half. Washington didn't get a first down in the entire 3rd quarter and first 5 minutes of the 4th quarter, while Utah was building a lead. .... Final Group B Standings, with point differential in parenthesis #1 Alabama 5-0 (+142) #2 Utah 3-2 (+17) #3 Florida St. 3-2 (0) #4 Arizona 3-2 (+2) (Best win v. Utah) #5 Washington 1-4 (-71) #6 Maryland 0-5 (-90) Alabama gets the #1 spot with a clean sweep, but after a strong start, finishes almost 30 points behind LSU in point differential due to closer than expected games against Utah and Arizona.....Then things get interesting....A three way tie for spots #2-#4. Utah, Arizona, and Florida St. all finish 3-2. All three teams finished 1-1 within that subgroup of 3 teams. So, Utah, with a +17 point differential, wins the #2 spot by 15 points over Arizona, who was just +2. 15 points is a very close margin over 5 games....So then Arizona and Florida St. are tied for the #3 spot, and Florida St. gets it because they beat Arizona in week 3....So that's a really, really tough break for Arizona, who came into this group looking marginally better than Maryland, and then surprised PAC-12 rivals Utah and Washington to go 3-2. At #4, they're still in contention for one of the 4 wild card spots. Their best win is against Utah (#2, +17), which is a pretty strong win. It's stronger than Syracuse's first win, so they'll be alive for a while. Washington and Maryland become the first two BCS-conference schools to be eliminated. Last edited by molson : 01-04-2012 at 01:20 AM.

12-27-2011, 12:13 AM	#2
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*Group A* #1 LSU (SEC, 13-0, 8-0) LA-Monroe (Sun Belt, 4-8, 3-5) Rutgers (Big East, 8-4, 4-3) Syracuse (Big East 5-7, 1-6) Eastern Michigan (MAC, 6-6, 4-4) UNLV (MWC, 2-10, 1-6) LSU should steamroll to an easy 5 wins here, but the real benefactor in this weak group is Rutgers. In plenty of other groups it would be a real struggle to finish in the top 3 and advance, but here, they're clearly the 2nd best team in the group and have a great shot to move on. It's a lucky draw as well for Syracuse and Eastern Michigan - the matchup between those two teams could decide the 3rd spot. And the group is weak enough that even UNLV and/or LA-Monroe could pull a couple of upsets to make things interesting. LSU will be looking for a 5-0 record, a dominant point differential, and a top ranking going into the next round. Last edited by molson : 12-27-2011 at 12:14 AM.

12-27-2011, 12:19 AM	#3
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP B #2 Alabama (SEC, 11-1, 7-1) Florida St. (ACC, 8-4, 5-3) Maryland (ACC, 2-10, 1-7) Washington (PAC-12, 7-5, 5-4) Utah (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5) Arizona (PAC-12, 4-8, 2-7) Things get much tougher right away in Group B, as 6 BCS Conference schools square off. 'Bama should cruise to the group win, but getting 5 straight wins is hardly automatic here. Even a 4-1 strong run might cost 'Bama 8-12 spots in the overall rankings, and then they'd have to deal with a much tougher opponent in the next stage. Maryland will probably be the group whipping boy, and Arizona is only a little better, but the remaining 3 schools seem pretty evenly matched, and will likely compete for 2 spots. Last edited by molson : 12-27-2011 at 12:20 AM.

12-27-2011, 12:23 AM	#4
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP C* #3 Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 11-1, 8-1) LA-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 8-4, 6-2) Cincinnati (Big East, 9-3, 5-2) Kent St. (MAC, 5-7, 4-4) Ball St. (MAC, 6-6, 4-4) Tennessee (SEC, 5-7, 1-7) The talent level drops down again in group C. Cincinnati, like Rutgers, gets a great draw - they'll be outclassed by Oklahoma St, but they'll be the favorite in their other 4 games, and they have a great shot to advance. Tennessee may have the edge for the other spot v. the 3 non-bcs schools, but it's not a clear edge. Last edited by molson : 12-27-2011 at 12:23 AM.

12-27-2011, 12:31 AM	#5
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP D* #4 Stanford (PAC-12, 11-1, 8-1) Arizona St (PAC-12, 6-6, 4-6) Missouri (Big 12, 7-5, 5-4) California (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5) USC (PAC-12, 10-2, 7-2) Colorado (PAC-12, 3-10, 2-7) Brutally tough group here featuring Missouri joining almost half of the Pac-12. Wherever USC ended up, it was going to be tough for the group's resident ranked team, as USC brings top-25 caliber talent. Stanford will have probably the toughest path of any ranked team to win their group, and they could even find themselves fighting to advance if they slip in a game or two. Either way, Stanford and USC will be favored to advance, while Missouri, Arizona St. and California will probably fight for the 3rd spot. There will be a somewhat high profile BCS Conference team or two not advancing to the final 64 from this group. Last edited by molson : 12-27-2011 at 12:32 AM.

12-27-2011, 12:36 AM	#6
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP E #5 Oregon (PAC-12, 11-1, 8-1) Ohio (MAC, 9-4, 6-2) North Texas (Sun Belt, 5-7, 4-4) Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt, 2-10, 1-7) Toledo (MAC, 8-4, 7-1) Mississippi St. (SEC, 6-6, 2-6) Oregon gets very little competition - they'll be looking for point differential to distinguish themselves from the other 5-0 teams in the rankings for the next round. How will a bottom-feeding SEC team like Mississippi St. fare against top MAC teams like Toledo and Ohio? Those three teams seem to be the best in the group after Oregon, and will likely be competing for two spots.

12-27-2011, 12:39 AM	#7
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP F* #6 Arkansas (SEC 11-1, 7-1) Notre Dame (Ind, 8-4) Louisville (Big East, 7-5, 5-2) Bowling Green (MAC, 5-7, 3-5) North Carolina St. (ACC, 7-5, 4-4) Ohio St (Big 10, 6-6, 3-5) Like clockwork, we bounce back to a very tough conference. Arkansas is the class of group F, and poor Bowling Green gets a terrible draw and appears to be at the bottom. Which would leave Notre Dame/Louisville/NC St/Ohio St fighting for 2 spots, and I have no idea how that would turn out. It's an unlucky draw each of those teams.

12-27-2011, 12:41 AM	#8
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP G #7 Boise St. (MWC 11-1, 6-1) Florida International (Sun Belt, 8-4, 5-3) Western Michigan (MAC, 7-5, 5-3) Central Michigan (MAC, 3-9, 2-6) Miami, FL (ACC, 3-5, 6-6) Tulsa (CUSA, 8-4, 7-1) Great opportunity for Boise St. to run the table, though Miami might be an interesting challenge. Miami and Tulsa get great draws here, they appear to be the clear favorites to take the other two spots. The week 1 Eastern Michigan/Central Michigan winner certainly has a shot too though, if they can pull an upset or two. Last edited by molson : 12-27-2011 at 12:42 AM.

12-27-2011, 12:47 AM	#9
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP H #8 Kansas St. (Big 12, 10-2, 7-2) #25 Auburn (SEC, 7-5, 4-4) San Jose St. (WAC, 5-7, 3-4) lliinois (Big 10, 6-6, 2-6) Oregon St. (PAC-12, 3-9, 3-6) Central Florida (CUSA, 5-7, 3-5) Group H is the first group to feature two ranked teams, and Auburn will challenge Kansas St for the #1 spot in the group (and easier 2nd stage matchup). But both should easily advance, as the talent level drops down in a hurry after them. Illinois gets what is probably a lucky draw despite the two seeded teams, as they may be the best of a very weak balance of the group. It's a very lucky draw too for Oregon St, Central Florida, and San Jose St, who are all only an Illinois implosion from actually advancing, something that would be impossible for them in most other groups. Last edited by molson : 12-27-2011 at 12:48 AM.

12-27-2011, 02:42 AM	#10
collegesportsfanms Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2004	good to see Kansas State have an easy draw. molson, did you think about setting it up so that you didn't have 5 teams from the same conference in the same group? I know it's luck of the draw but I would think you'd want to spread the conferences out a little better. That is a tough group with 5 Pac Twelve teams.

12-27-2011, 08:55 AM	#11
cubboyroy1826 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2002	Should be fun to watch.

12-27-2011, 07:16 PM	#13
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP I* #9 South Carolina (SEC 6-2, 10-2) #24 Texas (Big 12, 7-5, 4-5) Louisiana Tech (WAC, 8-4, 6-1) Florida (SEC, 6-6, 3-5) Wake Forest (ACC, 6-6, 5-3) Virginia (ACC, 8-4, 5-3) Poor Louisiana Tech, they're a decent enough team out of the WAC that might have a shot at advancing with a favorable draw, but here - they get bunched with 5 solid BCS teams in brutal group I. It's no free ticket for ranked South Carolina or Texas to advance here, they'll have to beat some good teams to do it. Actually, I'd say South Carolina is the favorite, but Texas/Florida/Wake/Virginia are pretty close - 4 good teams fighting for 2 other spots.

12-27-2011, 07:18 PM	#14
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP J #10 Wisconsin (Big 10, 11-2, 6-2) Wyoming (MWC, 8-4, 5-2) Utah St. (WAC, 7-4, 5-2) Hawaii (WAC, 6-7, 3-4) North Carolina (ACC, 7-5, 3-5) Iowa (Big 10, 7-5, 4-4) Pretty good draw for all of the 5 teams who land in Wisconsin's group. Wisconsin should dominate, but everybody else probably has a shot to advance. Iowa and North Carolina are the favorites for spots 2 and 3, but it's easy to see Hawaii, Wyoming, or Utah St. ruining the party, especially if one of them can run the table against the other 2. That'll be key here - if say, Wyoming can beat Utah St. and Hawaii, they'll only need one upset against in their 3 other games to advance. Last edited by molson : 12-27-2011 at 07:20 PM.

12-27-2011, 07:26 PM	#15
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP K #11 Virginia Tech (ACC, 11-2, 7-1) Temple (MAC, 8-4, 5-3) Marshall (CUSA, 7-5, 5-3) New Mexico St. (WAC, 4-9, 2-5) Kentucky (SEC, 5-7, 2-6) Rice (CUSA, 4-8, 3-5) Another pretty soft group, that will see at least 1 non-BCS school get to the next round, and possibly two, as Kentucky isn't going to scare anyone. A real sleeper could emerge here, as there's a good chance that a non-BCS school will earn the #2 group spot, wich would give them a somewhat more manageable game in stage II. If they win there, they could get a fortunate draw in the final round of 32....Temple or Marshall appear to be the best two candidates to pull something like that off. Last edited by molson : 12-27-2011 at 07:27 PM.

12-27-2011, 07:31 PM	#16
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP L* #12 Baylor (Big 12, 9-3, 6-3) Connecticut (Big East 5-7, 3-4) Ole Miss (SEC, 2-10, 0-8) Indiana (Big 10, 0-8, 1-11) Washington St. (PAC-12, 4-8, 2-7) UCLA (PAC-12, 6-7, 5-4) It's an all BCS-conference group, but that would include maybe the two worst BCS-conference teams, Ole Miss and Indiana, so, it's still a good draw for Washington St, UCLA, and Connecticut, who will probably compete for the #2 and #3 spots. And like the Group K, there's no real clear #2 team, so this group presents another chance for a sleeper team to finish at #2 and get the favorable draw going forward.

12-27-2011, 07:37 PM	#17
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP M #13 Michigan (Big 10, 10-2, 6-2) Nevada (WAC, 7-5, 5-2) Navy (Ind, 5-7) Troy (Sun Belt, 3-9, 2-6) Idaho (WAC, 2-10, 1-6) Colorado St. (MWC, 3-9, 1-6) Nevada and Navy get maybe the best draws yet - not only do they land somewhere where they have a chance to advance, they'll be the favorites to land the #2 and #3 spots in this weak group. it's a great draw for Idaho, Colorado St, and Troy as well, as any of those teams that can just beat the other two, and Navy, would advance as well.

12-27-2011, 08:04 PM	#18
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP N #14 Oklahoma (Big 12, 9-3, 6-3) #21 Southern Mississippi (CUSA, 11-2, 6-2) Army (Ind, 3-9) Arkansas St. (Sun Belt, 10-2, 8-0) Duke (ACC, 3-9, 1-7) Tulane (CUSA, 2-11, 1-7) Interesting drop off here between the top two teams and everyone else. Does Arkansas St's 8-0 Sun Belt record make them the favorite for the #3 spot? If not them, then the door is opened for a very fortunate bottom feeder to get past the group stage. Last edited by molson : 12-27-2011 at 08:04 PM.

12-28-2011, 12:08 AM	#19
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP O* #15 Clemson (ACC, 10-3, 6-2) Pittsburgh (Big East, 6-6, 4-3) Buffalo (MAC, 3-9, 2-6) New Mexico (MWC, 1-11, 1-6) Memphis (CUSA, 2-10, 1-7) SMU (CUSA, 7-5, 5-3) There's a clear pecking order here - Clemson, Pittsburgh, and SMU will be favored to advance while Buffalo, New Mexico, and Memphis will look for some big upsets.

12-28-2011, 12:09 AM	#20
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP P #16 Georgia (SEC 10-3, 7-1) Vanderbilt (SEC, 6-6, 2-6) Air Force (MWC, 7-5, 3-4) Kansas (Big 12, 2-10, 0-9) Minnesota (Big 10, 3-9, 2-6) East Carolina (CUSA, 5-7, 4-4) Georgia at the top, Kansas at the bottom, and then a quartet of relative mediocrity, all of whom will have a chance to advance.

12-28-2011, 12:12 AM	#21
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP Q* #17 Michigan St. (Big 10, 10-3, 7-1) BYU (Ind, 9-3) Western Kentucky (Sun Belt, 7-5, 7-1) Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 1-11, 0-8) Northern Illinois (MAC, 10-3, 7-1) UTEP (CUSA, 5-7, 2-6) Northern Illinois gets a great draw - any time you can get in a pool with two Sun Belt teams, things are looking up. If Northern Illinois can finish ahead of of the sun belt representatives, only UTEP stands in their way of moving on. BYU would probably have been favored to advance in almost any group, but here their path is particularly easy, and in fact, they get one of the lower-seeded ranked teams in Michigan St, so BYU has at least some chance to knock them off and steal this group. Last edited by molson : 12-28-2011 at 12:13 AM.

12-28-2011, 12:16 AM	#22
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP R* #18 TCU (MWD, 11-2, 7-0) #23 West Virginia (Big East, 9-3, 5-2) Boston College (ACC, 4-8, 3-5) Iowa St. (Big 12, 6-6, 3-6) Northwestern (Big 10, 6-6, 3-5) Purdue (Big 10, 6-6, 4-4) 6 BCS schools, two of them ranked, and 5 of them with .500 overall records or better. Tough, deep group. TCU really doesn't get much of an advantage with their #18 ranking, as they land here with a real threat in West Virginia. And the other four teams here are more than capable of scoring an upset. Or on the other hand, they could just beat up on each other and trade victories, making things easier on TCU and WVU. No easy games here. Last edited by molson : 12-28-2011 at 12:17 AM.

12-28-2011, 12:21 AM	#23
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP S* #19 Houston (CUSA, 12-1, 8-0) #22 Penn St. (Big 10, 9-3, 6-2) San Diego St. (MWC, 8-4, 4-3) South Florida (Big East, 5-7, 1-6) Akron (MAC, 1-11, 0-8) Texas Tech (Big 12, 5-7, 2-7) Another two-ranked team group - Penn St/Houston will be an interesting matchup Week 1, and the winner of that one will almost definitely win the group. The loser of the game probably still advance. But an interesting wild card will be Texas Tech - will they look more like early season TT or the team that collapsed at the end? Or an average of the two? That third spot will probably come down to Texas Tech or San Diego St.

12-28-2011, 12:24 AM	#24
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP T #20 Nebraska (Big 10, 9-3, 5-3) Fresno St. (WAC, 4-9, 3-4) Miami, OH (MAC, 4-8, 3-5) Georgia Tech (ACC, 8-4, 5-3) Texas A&M (Big 12, 6-6, 4-5) UAB (CUSA, 3-9, 3-5) Finally, Group T features 3 BCS schools and 3 non-bcs schools. The three bcs schools will be favored to advance. Even though Texas A&M is a bit shaky, UAB, Fresno St, and Miami of Ohio aren't exactly in the upper tier of even their weaker conferences.

12-28-2011, 08:31 PM	#25
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP A* #1 LSU (SEC, 13-0, 8-0) LA-Monroe (Sun Belt, 4-8, 3-5) Rutgers (Big East, 8-4, 4-3) Syracuse (Big East 5-7, 1-6) Eastern Michigan (MAC, 6-6, 4-4) UNLV (MWC, 2-10, 1-6) ----------------------------------- Week 1: #1 LSU 29, LA-Monroe 10 Rutgers 20, Syracuse 16 UNLV 21, Eastern Michigan 10 LSU wins comfortably, if a little unconvincingly. The Warhawks made it interesting in the 3rd quarter - they got a TD and then a FG to draw within 17-10, then forced a punt and drove to the LSU 30. But the LSU-Monroe QB got sacked there on 3rd down, and that was as close as they got the rest of the way. LSU got 4 FGs on 4 4th quarter possessions to seal it...The Rutgers/Syracuse game sounds about as boring as most big east games I saw this year, but it did have an exciting ending - the Orange QB (Nassib) had it at the Rutgers 1 yard-line for the last play of the game - the pass to the RB (Bailey) was complete, but he was stopped short of the goal line, so Rutgers holds on....UNLV with a modest upset that really hurts Eastern Michigan's chances. The Rebels get two long TD runs from Dionza Bradford in the first quarter, and that's all they needed. Week 2: #1 LSU 44, Rutgers 10 Eastern Michigan 23, LA-Monroe 20 Syracuse 50, UNLV 7 LSU finds their form against Rutgers. Rutgers got a TD late in the 1st quarter to tie the game at 7, but the Tigers dominated after that....Eastern Michigan just barely gets a win in a must-win situation against the Warhawks. Down by 7 with 7:46 to go, Eastern Michigan managed a 14-play, 82-yard drive, that included 3 third down conversions, and ended with 10-yard QB draw for a TD with 1:49 left. Then they forced a quick 3-and-out, got good field position, and got the game winning 40 yard FG as time expired...Syracuse with a surprisingly big blowout of UNLV ... Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis (first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but point differential is likely to be very important when seeding teams for the second round, where ties exist between teams that haven't played each other). LSU 2-0 (+53) Syracuse 1-1 (+39) Eastern Michigan 1-1 (-8) Rutgers 1-1 (-30) UNLV 1-1 (-32) Louisiana-Monroe 0-2 (-22) LSU's looking good, but they'll want a better point differential to get a top seeding in the next round. The 4-way battle for the next two spots has emerged, but Rutgers appears to have the edge since they've already played LSU, and they own a tiebreaker against Syracuse. But seeing how UNLV beat Eastern Michigan and then was destroyed by Syracuse - it's looking like both big east teams are going to move on. Last edited by molson : 12-29-2011 at 09:00 PM.

12-30-2011, 09:26 AM	#28
BYU 14 Coordinator Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: The scorched Desert	Nice start, go Cougars!!!

01-04-2012, 12:05 AM	#32
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP C* #3 Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 11-1, 8-1) LA-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 8-4, 6-2) Cincinnati (Big East, 9-3, 5-2) Kent St. (MAC, 5-7, 4-4) Ball St. (MAC, 6-6, 4-4) Tennessee (SEC, 5-7, 1-7) ------------------------ Week 1: #3 Oklahoma St 41, LA-Lafayette 17 Cincinnati 19, Kent St. 11 Ball St. 34, Tennessee 13 Oklahoma St. jumps out 28-0 and never looks back. Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden throws for 444 yards and 3 TDs (but also 2 interceptions). Which was important because their running game wasn't working at all (40 yards on 31 carries)....In an intrastate matchup, Cincinnati beats Kent St. The Bearcats couldn't get much going on offense - just 3 FGs and a punt return for a TD in the first half. That was enough to win, but Kent St. made it interesting at the end. Down 8, they got down to the Bearcat 17-yard line after a long pass. On the final play of the game, Cincinnati broke up a Ken St. pass in the end zone.....Then Ball St. throws a wrench into the whole 3 BCS schools v. 3 non-BCS schools dichotomy by laying down the hammer and convincingly beating Tennessee. Volunteer QB Tyler Bray threw 4 picks, as Tennessee never got closer than 10 points after the 1st quarter. Week 2: Cincinnati 43, #3 Oklahoma St. 38 LA-Lafayette 40, Ball St. 27 Tennessee 30, Kent St. 17 #3 Oklahoma St. becomes the first ranked team to lose a game in a shootout with Cincinnati that had an amazing finish. The teams traded scores and were tied at 24 at halftime. Both teams got one TD in the 3rd quarter, but the Bearcats missed their extra point, so the Cowboys were up 31-30 entering the final quarter. They extended that lead to 38-30 on the 2nd play of the 4th quarter with a 30 yard TD pass. The Bearcats then went 3-and-out, which gave the Cowboys a chance to take control of the game. But, with an 8-point lead and the ball, they missed a 46-yard FG with 11 minutes left. Cincinnati responded with a 15 play, 81 yard TD drive. However, they failed the 2-point conversion attempt, so the Cowboys still led, 38-36, with 5 minutes to go, and a chance to run out the clock. However, OK St. went three and out and had to punt. Cincinnati got a great punt return, giving the Bearcats the ball at the Cowboy 41, down 2, with 3:15 to go. Rather than settle for a FG attempt, the Bearcats get the go-ahead TD after a pair of long runs to go up 43-38 with 2:13 left. So Oklahoma St. had some time left, but they threw an interception with 1:05 left that seemed to seal the game for the Bearcats. But, OK St. used their timeouts, held Cincinnati, and got the ball back, after a Bearcat punt, at their own 18, down 5, with 17 seconds left. Cowboy QB Weeden then completed a deep pass to Horton, who sprinted all the way down to the Cincinnati 6-yard line before being pushed out of bounds as time expired. The log doesn't go into this level of detail, but I imagine Horton getting into the end zone, and the play being overturned on review because he stepped out of bounds at the 6....Ball St. blows a golden opportunity to build on their upset win over Tennessee by getting spanked by LA-Lafayette. Ball St. led 24-10 at halftime but completely fell apart in the 2nd half, where they were outscored 30-3....Tennessee rebounds win a win over Kent St, where the Golden Flashes needed 10 points in the final 9 minutes to get as close as they did. ... Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis: Cincinnati 2-0 (+13) Oklahoma St. 1-1 (+19) Ball St. 1-1 (+8) Tennessee 1-1 (-8) LA-Lafayette 1-1 (-11) Kent St. 0-2 (-21) The Cowboys' stunning loss might end up costing them the #1 group spot, but they're probably not in any danger of being eliminated at this point, with 3 weak opponents now ahead of them. Cincinnati though, now controls its own destiny for winning the group, which would give them an easier round 2 matchup and a great shot at the final 32....Ball St.'s win over TN gave them a great chance to take control of the #3 spot, but they blew it against the Rajin' Cajuns. Ball St. is in a tougher spot now because they still have to play both Oklahoma St. and Cincinnati, and need to beat to Kent St. just to, in all likelihood, get to 2 wins....Tennessee also still has to play the two big boys, so they're probably looking at 2 wins at best too....That leaves the Rajin' Cajuns, who can take #3 spot if they beat both Tennessee and Kent St....But if Volunteers beat LA-Lafayette, then Tenn/Ball St/LA-Lafayette would all likely finish 2-3, and we'd probably be looking at point differential for the 3rd spot. Last edited by molson : 01-04-2012 at 01:10 AM.

01-04-2012, 12:50 AM	#33
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP C* Week 3: #3 Oklahoma St. 55, Kent St. 17 Tennessee 39, LA-Lafayette 23 Ball St. 32, Cincinnati 20 Oklahoma St. recovers with a blowout win. It took them a little while to get going, they were down 3-0 until the final 2 minutes of the 1st quarter, and they were up only 14-3 at halftime. But they got 5 TDs and 2 FGs in the 2nd half....Tennessee takes care of business. It wasn't exactly convincing, but they never trailed....Then the Cincinnati Bearcats, fresh off their stunning victory over #3 Oklahoma St, have a serious letdown and lose to Ball St. The Cardinals jumped out 17-0 in the first half. The Bearcats' first 5 possessions resulted in 4 punts and an interception. Cincinnati did get a 46-yard TD pass as time expired in the first half, and got another TD on their first possession of the 2nd half, to cut it to 17-14, Ball St. But the Bearcat offense then stalled again, while Ball St. build their lead. Cincinnati didn't score again until a 59-yard pass with about 2 minutes left in the game, but then it was too late. They couldn't recover an onside kick, and Ball St. got another FG for the final margin. Week 4: #3 Oklahoma St. 58, Ball St. 21 LA-Lafayette 21, Kent St. 6 Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 24 Some sanity is restored as the Cowboys trounce the Cardinals. Oklahoma St. RB Joseph Randle rushed for 156 yards and 3 TDs....LA-Lafayette never trailed and gets a must-win over Kent St. They get 4 FGs, a TD, and a Safety, as the teams combine for only 153 rushing yards, and 575 yards of offense overall.... Cincinnati follows up their big win against Oklahoma St. with their 2nd straight loss, a close one to Tennessee. Once again, the Bearcat offense struggled, their first 5 possessions resulted in 3 punts and 2 interceptions. But they also intercepted a Volunteer pass for a TD, and got another TD and FG near the end of the first half, and led 17-10 at halftime. The Volunteers tied it with a TD drive on their first possession of the 2nd half. In the 4th quarter, Tennessee got a FG, then forced the Bearcats to punt, then got a TD drive to go up by 10. The Bearcats immediately answered with an 85-yard TD drive to draw within 3, but that was the end of their scoring. They got the ball down to the TN 23-yard line on their next possession, but QB Legaux was sacked and fumbled, and they never got close again. ....... Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis: Oklahoma St. 3-1 (+94) Tennessee 3-1 (+11) Cincinnati 2-2 (-2) LA-Lafayette 2-2 (-12) Ball St. 2-2 (-17) Kent St. 0-4 (-74) ...... Week 5 lineup: #3 Oklahoma St. v. Tennessee LA-Lafayette v. Cincinnati Ball St. v Kent St. A lot of strange results in this group. After the first two weeks, Cincinnati looked like the team to beat, Oklahoma St. looked like they were going to finish out of first place in the group, and Tennessee looked to be in serious trouble....Now, Tennessee and Oklahoma St. will square off for the #1 spot in the group in week 5....Tennessee is in a similar position that Arizona was in the last group - they win the group if they win week 5, but could fall all the way out of the top 3 if they lose, depending on how the tiebreakers shake out....It's hard to see anything going to plan in this group, but Ball St. is still in a great position. If week 5 favorites Oklahoma St, Cincinnati, and Ball St. win week 5, Ball St, Cincinnati, and Tennessee all finish 3-2, and Ball St. would snag the #2 spot because they beat both Cincinnati and Tennessee. Tennessee would get the #3 spot, and Cincinnati would finish out of the money, but would pretty much be guaranteed a wild card spot with their "best win" v. Oklahoma St. Last edited by molson : 01-04-2012 at 12:51 AM.

01-04-2012, 01:12 AM	#34
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	GROUP C Week 5: #3 Oklahoma St. 51, Tennessee 3 Cincinnati 28, LA-Lafayette 16 Ball St. 26, Kent St. 6 Oklahoma St. leaves nothing to chance and wins the group by crushing the Volunteers. Joseph Randle rushes for 198 yards and 2 TDs, and Brandon Weeden throws for 447 yards and 2 TDs (with 1 interception). Oklahoma St. outgains Tennessee 667-279...Cincinnati finally gets back on track. It's not a blowout, but they never trail and control the game throughout....Ball St. has only lowly Kent St. in between it and advancing to the next round, and I halfway expect them to blow another big game, but they get a big 20-point win. .... Final Group C Standings, with point differential in parenthesis: #1 Oklahoma St. 4-1 (+142) #2 Ball St. 3-2 (+3) #3 Tennessee 3-2 (-37) #4 Cincinnati 3-2 (+10) (Best win v. Oklahoma St.) #5 LA-Lafayette 2-3 (-24) #6 Kent St. 0-5 (-94) Oklahoma St, much like their real-life 2011 counterparts, was dominate except v. one mediocre opponent. Still, Cincinnati's collapse allows them to win the group. They'll be ranked behind all of the 5-0 group winners, but that point differential will put them ahead of most, if not all of the 4-1 group winners.....Ball St. had a strange run in group play - they beat BCS conference schools Cincinnati and Tennessee, but lost to LA-Lafayette. But, those 2 big wins earn them the #2 spot in the group, which is a really shocking finish for them. They'll get a second-round matchup against another #2 group finisher, and with a lucky draw, Ball St. could easily find themselves in the final 32 teams.... Tennessee's 3-point win over Cincinnati in week 4 earns them the tiebreaker with the Bearcats and the #3 spot, they advance....Cincinnati falls all the way to #4, but it's hard to see any other #4 team, let alone 4 #4 teams, having a better win than they had against Oklahoma St. (#1, +142), so there's a good chance they move on to stage 2. They'd be seeded #61 or #62, which would give them a stage 2 matchup against the #3 or #4 ranked team - and we've seen that the Bearcats can play with the best. LA-Lafayette and Kent St. are eliminated. Syracuse from group A moves closer to elimination (they'll be officially eliminated once two more #4 group finishers have a better "best win" than they did.) Last edited by molson : 01-04-2012 at 01:20 AM.

01-04-2012, 01:21 AM	#35
collegesportsfanms Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2004	That's the beauty of using the whatifsports simulator. In a 1 game simulation of games, upsets can and do happen. Makes for a nice change of pace. Hopefully Cincy moves on, that win over Okie St. means they deserve a chance in the round of 64. I like the way you are choosing your 4 wildcard teams. I wish I had used wildcards for my college basketball world cup, instead I chose to just use the top 2 in each group. Unfortunately it's too late to scrap and start over, maybe next time if I do one, I'll figure out a better system than having 70 of 140 teams advancing. Good stuff, keep it up.

01-04-2012, 09:38 PM	#37
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP D* #4 Stanford (PAC-12, 11-1, 8-1) Arizona St (PAC-12, 6-6, 4-6) Missouri (Big 12, 7-5, 5-4) California (PAC-12, 7-5, 4-5) USC (PAC-12, 10-2, 7-2) Colorado (PAC-12, 3-10, 2-7) Week 1: #4 Stanford 43, Arizona St. 31 California 20, Missouri 7 USC 41, Colorado 20 Group D, or "Group Pac-12 and Missouri" kicks off with a big win for Stanford. It wasn't a dominant win, but in this group, it was an important to get a win right off the bat. The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-10 lead early in the 2nd quarter, but Stanford exploded for 20 straight points before halftime. Arizona St. got back within 1 possession twice in the 2nd half, but both times Stanford answered.....Strong defense leads Cal over Missouri. The Golden Bears held the Tigers to 216 yards of total offense, they also intercepted Missouri 3 times.... Colorado is the weakest team in this tough group, so it's they're a critical win for everybody - USC takes care of business against them and win by 3 TDs. The Trojans got TDs on their first 3 possessions and were up 21-0 by the end of the first quarter. Week 2: Missouri 23, #4 Stanford 20 USC 66, Arizona St. 28 California 41, Colorado 23 Huge win for Missouri, scary loss for Stanford with the schedule they still have in front of them. Missouri jumped ahead early and withstood a furious Cardinal rally late. Missouri picked off off Luck 3 times and with 11 minutes left in the game, they led 23-7. But then it looked like it might all fall apart for the Tigers. Stanford got a 13 play, 93 yd TD drive. The 2-point conversion failed, but it was then 23-13 Missouri, with 5:33 left. Missouri got the ball on the ensuing kickoff, and then broke a 37 yard gain. But on the next play, Missouri RB Culver fumbled, and Stanford got it back down 10, with 4:48 left. 9 plays, 53 yds, and 1:52 later, Luck hits Fleener in the end zone to draw Stanford to within 3 points, with 1:52 left. Stanford kicked deep, got a 3-and-out, forced a punt, and got the ball back, still down 3, at their own 13, with just 1:26. But that was the end of the magic, Luck threw his 4th interception, and Missouri wins....USC was not similarly challenged, as they're looking like the team to beat in this group, destroying an Arizona St. team that gave Stanford a lot of problems. The Trojans led 66-14 at one point. USC WR Marqise Lee gets 7 catches for 168 yards and 3 TDs. Curtis McNeal rushes for 113 yards and 4 TDs. The USC defense forces 4 Sun Devil turnovers....Cal gradually pulled away against Colorado. .... Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis: USC 2-0 (+59) California 2-0 (+31) Stanford 1-1 (+9) Missouri 1-1 (-10) Colorado 0-2 (-39) Arizona St. 0-2 (-50) Obviously the big story here is Missouri beating Stanford. Stanford still has an easy win v. Colorado coming up, but they also still have to deal with USC and California, who have both been impressive, so it won't be easy for the 4th ranked team in the country to even get to 3 wins. They should be sweating, but Luck probably won't have any more 4-interception games. USC and Cal both control their own destiny to win the group, but they both already played Colorado, so things will be tougher for both of them going forward. Missouri got the huge win against Stanford, but they still have a lot of work to do too.

01-04-2012, 10:33 PM	#38
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	*GROUP D* Week 3: California 25, #4 Stanford 13 Arizona St. 40, Colorado 23 USC 38, Missouri 14 Stanford is officially in trouble with their second group loss, and USC still to come on their schedule. The Cardinal offense struggled again, had only 3 points with 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, by then they were down 13-3. They did manage to tie the game at 13 with a FG and TD on their next two possessions. Stanford had the ball to start out the 4th quarter with a chance to take the lead, but Luck fumbled the ball away. California responded with a 44-yard FG with 9:39 to take a lead they would never relinquish. Cal forced a punt, then got a TD drive, then turned Stanford over on downs, and then got another FG,and that was it.....The Sun Devils get their first win to at least stay in the conversation. They got 23 unanswered points between the middle of the 2nd quarter and very late in the 4th quarter.....The Trojans keep rolling. USC really shut down the Missouri offense in the 2nd half, keeping the Tigers scoreless, while they built their lead. Matt Barkley threw for 333 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 interceptions. Week 4: #4 Stanford 41, USC 38 Arizona St. 48, California 24 Missouri 20, Colorado 17 USC went into their game with Stanford on top of the world, and Stanford was fighting for survival, and the Cardinal pull off the close win. The teams alternated scores throughout the game - there were 8 lead changes and 3 ties. USC tied the game at 17 early in the 2nd quarter. From there, Stanford went up by a TD on three separate occasions, only to have USC tie it back up with a TD of their own three straight times, until we were at 38-38, with 4:47 left in the game. The teams then traded punts, and it looked like we were going to our first OT, as USC punted down to the Stanford 11 yard line with just 37 seconds left. But Luck got three completions, and setup the game winning 40-yard FG as time expired. On the day, Luck went 21-for-31, 335 yards, 3 TDs, no interceptions. USC RB Tyler Gaffney ran for 147 yards with 2 TDs on just 8 carries....With USC losing, the door was wide open for 3-0 Cal to take control of the group, but then they remembered that they were not in fact, an elite PAC-12 team, and they get thumped by suddenly-in-the-picture Arizona St....Missouri was nearly the latest version of the upset carnage, but they get past Colorado. It came down to FGs. The Buffalos tied the game with a 36-yard FG with 3:53 left. Misouri answered and took the lead with a 43-yard FG with 34 seconds left. Colorado got a decent kickoff return, and then a 39-yard running play, only to watch their kicker miss a 43-yard FG that would have tied the game, as time expired. ... Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis: USC 3-1 (+80) California 3-1 (+19) Stanford 2-2 (0) Arizona St. 2-2 (-9) Missouri 2-2 (-31) Colorado 0-4 (-59) .... Week 5 lineup: #4 Stanford v. Colorado Arizona St. v. Missouri USC v. California It's not surprising that there'd be a lot of parity and upsets in this group, and that things are still pretty wide open at the end. #4 Stanford will be the first ranked team that fails to win its group. Instead, the group winner will be the winner of the USC/California matchup. The loser of that game drops into what will likely be a trio of 3-2 teams: The USC/Cal loser, Stanford (assuming they beat Colorado), and the Missouri/Arizona St. winner (the Missouri/Arizona St. loser is out). Stanford does not control it's own destiny to even advance at this point. For example, if Stanford wins, USC beats Cal, and Missouri beats Arizona St, Stanford is going to end up in 4th place because they've lost to both Cal and Missouri. In many of the scenarios, point differential is going to matter, so big wins are important in week 5 for anyone that can get them.