WW CXXVI: Wolves in Asgard - Game Over (Result in Post 2538) - Page 45

MrBug708 · 08-16-2011, 08:11 PM

Well..that changes things a little bit

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

Leaning positive
McKerney
Negatives - Very quiet. 2nd to last in posts among alive players
-Had a throw away vote on day one.
Positives? - Would three wolves hide their votes on Chubby on day two? (He had four votes total)
-Kept DV in it on day two by narrowing the vote to 5-3 (Lathum over DV) early in the day.
-If Autumn is a wolf: Extended Autumn’s lead over Thomkal to 6-4 at 7:02 pm on day four.

I disagree on McKerney's vote record being bad. I think he has one of the best out there. Regardless, I'm only basing voting for Hoops over McKerney on McKerney's reveal.

The rest is based on the theory that A.) There would be more then one wolf on EagleFan in a close vote vs. Danny (unless it's an Evil Duke) B.) There was vote manipulation which I think unlikely came from Danny. That would leave Hoops and Barkeep.

EagleFan · 08-16-2011, 08:14 PM

The message basically said they those in Vahala won't know how much of it we will get. Then that they have a chace in the day to find out who killed them.

The last part ended with if nightkilled/people. I am trying to see if that eans anything. I tried matching up first letters and seeing if there is anything hidden within the message but o far it looks like either I am mising it or ther just wasn't enough there to go on.

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

If it is vote manipulation does it have to be hoops or barkeep? Hypothetically, couldn't it be someone like jeheinz72 placing his vote on Danny and then moving his (or someone elses) vote to EF? To me this seems just as likely as it being hoops or barkeep.

I suppose that's possible. I don't think I've played in any games with vote manipulation. I'll let people who are more familiar with the mechanics of vote manipulation discuss this.

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:16 PM

Who said it was vote manipulation and not a straight out duking?

EagleFan · 08-16-2011, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I disagree on McKerney's vote record being bad. I think he has one of the best out there. Regardless, I'm only basing voting for Hoops over McKerney on McKerney's reveal.

The rest is based on the theory that A.) There would be more then one wolf on EagleFan in a close vote vs. Danny (unless it's an Evil Duke) B.) There was vote manipulation which I think unlikely came from Danny. That would leave Hoops and Barkeep.

I don't disagree with you about there being a good chance that one of them is a wolf.

I feel way off my game here and have no clue at this point (I think you all may be wolves

).

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:17 PM

DOLA - I'm still inclined to believe it was a mechanic acting the way Danny described. The best lies have a kernel of truth. I'm not saying he was the one who executed the mechanic but I don't think it was vote manipulation so much as a modified duke ability.

Telle · 08-16-2011, 08:17 PM

We really don't know what it is.. making votes count double or more (for an EF voter), subtracting votes (from a danny voter), or duking.

EagleFan · 08-16-2011, 08:17 PM

unvote mckerney

vote BK

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Who said it was vote manipulation and not a straight out duking?

I said if it was vote manipulation or anything other then an evil duking then you or Hoops is probably bad. With McKerney's claimed info, I'm going with Hoops.

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:18 PM

I would really like people's thoughts about the inconsistency I pointed out in 2196. I think it's no small matter.

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I said if it was vote manipulation or anything other then an evil duking then you or Hoops is probably bad. With McKerney's claimed info, I'm going with Hoops.

Does me no good, but I don't think mckerny's reveal means Jack.

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:18 PM

Might as well vote for it.

Vote mckerny

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I would really like people's thoughts about the inconsistency I pointed out in 2196. I think it's no small matter.

I think he may have meant he can't die from night attacks of non-Loki wolves, but I'm not sure. That's what I took from it. What do others think?

mckerney · 08-16-2011, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I disagree on McKerney's vote record being bad. I think he has one of the best out there. Regardless, I'm only basing voting for Hoops over McKerney on McKerney's reveal.

The rest is based on the theory that A.) There would be more then one wolf on EagleFan in a close vote vs. Danny (unless it's an Evil Duke) B.) There was vote manipulation which I think unlikely came from Danny. That would leave Hoops and Barkeep.

I wouldn't say I have a stellar voting record, could be good or bad depending on ntn. That said, I don't think a wolf would make the vote I did to give DV his third vote to make him trail Lathum 5-3, and then twice remind Lathum he had to fix his vote on DV for it to count when he said he was about to leave for the day.

If someone doesn't believe my reveal, I don't really know what more I can do to convince them. Anything to do with the item I can't really explain, I haven't been passed anything so anything that hasn't shown up either the wolves have had it all game or it's not in the game. Not sure why I'd make a reveal that could be contested when there wasn't much heat on me if I were a wolf though.

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:23 PM

There's bound to be someone on DV who is a wolf and who can, credibly, claim an important vote on DV. Again not something which helps me, but I think is important to say.

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

I wouldn't say I have a stellar voting record, could be good or bad depending on ntn. That said, I don't think a wolf would make the vote I did to give DV his third vote to make him trail Lathum 5-3, and then twice remind Lathum he had to fix his vote on DV for it to count when he said he was about to leave for the day.

If someone doesn't believe my reveal, I don't really know what more I can do to convince them. Anything to do with the item I can't really explain, I haven't been passed anything so anything that hasn't shown up either the wolves have had it all game or it's not in the game. Not sure why I'd make a reveal that could be contested when there wasn't much heat on me if I were a wolf though.

I don't really think anyone has a stellar voting record out given the number of villagers we've lynched, but I still say you have one of the better ones.

mckerney · 08-16-2011, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I would really like people's thoughts about the inconsistency I pointed out in 2196. I think it's no small matter.

Meant the non Loki wolves there.

MrBug708 · 08-16-2011, 08:25 PM

This is going to be one random crapshoot I think

mauchow · 08-16-2011, 08:26 PM

There are way too many votes still out there..

vote ntn

mauchow · 08-16-2011, 08:26 PM

Just going back to what I had before - making it official with ntn's full name now.

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

Meant the non Loki wolves there.

But those two things are hardly the same, right? I mean if Loki is in the game, and we know he is, being killable by Loki means you're just as susceptible now to wolf attack as I am. Really right now you have NO wolf protection.

MrBug708 · 08-16-2011, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

The message basically said they those in Vahala won't know how much of it we will get. Then that they have a chace in the day to find out who killed them.

The last part ended with if nightkilled/people. I am trying to see if that eans anything. I tried matching up first letters and seeing if there is anything hidden within the message but o far it looks like either I am mising it or ther just wasn't enough there to go on.

nightkilled/people

Cant imagine what that can be.

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

We really don't know what it is.. making votes count double or more (for an EF voter), subtracting votes (from a danny voter), or duking.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Danny 7: ntndeacon (80), Telle (205), jeheinz72 (217), dubb93 (238), Racer (307), EagleFan (308), Zinto (320)
EagleFan 6: Barkeep49 (75), hoopsguy (97), Autumn (174), J23 (276), Chubby (344), Danny (346)
Chubby 4: bhlloy (117), Darth Vilus (236), mauboy1 (273), Lathum (309)
Lathum 2: Narcizo (90), Thomkal (224)
ntndeacon 1: mckerney (94)
Zinto 1: MrBug708 (134)

I think it's really worth discussing what it may have been at this point. Here's a recap of the first vote.

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:29 PM

You know what my vote is.

Telle · 08-16-2011, 08:30 PM

If it wasn't a duking, they would have had to manipulate two votes... adding one or substracting one would only get them to a tie.

mckerney · 08-16-2011, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

But those two things are hardly the same, right? I mean if Loki is in the game, and we know he is, being killable by Loki means you're just as susceptible now to wolf attack as I am. Really right now you have NO wolf protection.

That may not be entirely true. When I revealed I said that I thought Loki attacked Chubby last night and I was hoping the same wolf couldn't attack two nights in a row. If that's true then I'm safe for tonight. It might not be the case, but it made me feel a bit more comfortable about revealing today.

mckerney · 08-16-2011, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

If it wasn't a duking, they would have had to manipulate two votes... adding one or substracting one would only get them to a tie.

Having the ability to move someones vote from Danny to EF would do it.

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:33 PM

In a vote so close (unless it was a duking which seems less likely since EagleFan was the attemped lynch), how likely is it that only one wolf voted for EagleFan?

Unless you strongly suspect a day one duking, I think there's a strong chance Barkeep or Hoops is a wolf.

With the info McKerney has provided us, I think Hoops is a bit more likely.

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

That may not be entirely true. When I revealed I said that I thought Loki attacked Chubby last night and I was hoping the same wolf couldn't attack two nights in a row. If that's true then I'm safe for tonight. It might not be the case, but it made me feel a bit more comfortable about revealing today. In other words don't be surprised when I'm still alive tomorrow despite being a huge threat to the wolves.

Fixed

Telle · 08-16-2011, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

Having the ability to move someones vote from Danny to EF would do it.

Thank you. I KNEW there was another vote manipulation means but I couldn't bring it to the front of my mind.

EagleFan · 08-16-2011, 08:37 PM

Vote count.... (looks around the room for Telle...

)

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:38 PM

How many wolves do we think are in this game anyway? I mean the number of villagers we already know who have roles doesn't ring true with the size of the game. I've got to believe that either mau or mckerny is a wolf. I've been going after mckerny but if people like mau better I'm happy to go that way as that's where I was headed earlier in the day.

Telle · 08-16-2011, 08:39 PM

Votes as of post #2232:

1 - Lathum - hoopsguy (2094)
1 - Telle - Narcizo (2113)
2 - ntndeacon - jeheinz (2135), mauboy (2220)
3 - hoopsguy - Racer (2174), Zinto (2189), MrBug (2191)
1 - Barkeep - EagleFan (2209)
1 - mckerney - Barkeep (2213)

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

Having the ability to move someones vote from Danny to EF would do it.

Yeah, that would make sense then which would mean Hoops or Barkeep are necessarily Loki. But still, I keep saying this, but in a vote that close day one, it seems like there is a high probability that there would be two wolves on EF regardless of what kind of vote manipulation there was.

So really, I still think the play should be Hoops or Barkeep. Hoops seems like a slightly higher player given McKerney's reveal that Barkeep isn't Loki. If you don't believe McKerney, then there probably isn't much difference between Hoops or Barkeep.

JAG · 08-16-2011, 08:39 PM

Day 6 voting as of post 2233:

hoopsguy 4 - Racer (2174), Zinto (2189), MrBug708 (2193), Telle (2249)
ntndeacon 3 - jeheinz72 (2135), mauboy1 (2220), hoopsguy (2241)
mckerney 1 - Barkeep49 (2213)
Barkeep49 1 - EagleFan (2209)
Lathum 1 -
Telle 1 - Narcizo (2113)

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

How many wolves do we think are in this game anyway? I mean the number of villagers we already know who have roles doesn't ring true with the size of the game. I've got to believe that either mau or mckerny is a wolf. I've been going after mckerny but if people like mau better I'm happy to go that way as that's where I was headed earlier in the day.

I've been guessing 5 myself. Anyone else want to chime in?

mauchow · 08-16-2011, 08:41 PM

Missing four voters?

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:41 PM

I don't buy mckerny's reveal but I also don't think the manipulator needs to be hoops. I think a straight up ability is just as likely as some kind of vote multiplier.

Telle · 08-16-2011, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Missing four voters?

Yes. ntndeacon is still missing. Lathum tried to vote for me this morning but forgot to bold it. And then mckerney and myself haven't voted yet.

hoopsguy · 08-16-2011, 08:42 PM

I'm going to have to move my vote to NTN, even though I really don't want to vote for him ... he is just rolled out there as an easy vote for not talking in spots like yesterday and today. And I don't really like to play along with that kind of logic as we get later into games. Especially if we might have an active player in that role tomorrow.

That said, if you take me out you won't be getting a wolf. And I would like to see if we can win this game without a seer for the duration ... would be a nice accomplishment. So I'm going to try and avoid rolling over and dying meekly.

UNVOTE LATHUM
VOTE NTN

Zinto · 08-16-2011, 08:43 PM

Yeah I would like to know who has not put a vote in.

hoopsguy · 08-16-2011, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

Yeah, that would make sense then which would mean Hoops or Barkeep are necessarily Loki. But still, I keep saying this, but in a vote that close day one, it seems like there is a high probability that there would be two wolves on EF regardless of what kind of vote manipulation there was.

So really, I still think the play should be Hoops or Barkeep. Hoops seems like a slightly higher player given McKerney's reveal that Barkeep isn't Loki. If you don't believe McKerney, then there probably isn't much difference between Hoops or Barkeep.

If you don't believe mckerney, you vote mckerney.

Zinto · 08-16-2011, 08:43 PM

Actually I can just figure it out myself instead of being lazy

hoopsguy · 08-16-2011, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I've been guessing 5 myself. Anyone else want to chime in?

Guessing 5 or 4+conversion chance.

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I don't buy mckerny's reveal but I also don't think the manipulator needs to be hoops. I think a straight up ability is just as likely as some kind of vote multiplier.

Yeah, I think I'm leaning towards that now. That would require a +3 vote (or +2 and they got lucky with the roll of dice). Any kind of vote manipulate makes you or Hoops look very bad though as the wolves would probably have multiple votes on EF in that case.

Barkeep49 · 08-16-2011, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I've been guessing 5 myself. Anyone else want to chime in?

5 is the number I had in my mind and I think what I posted back on D1.

Racer · 08-16-2011, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If you don't believe mckerney, you vote mckerney.

I'd lean towards believing him. But yeah, that would make sense for Barkeep (I think? who says he doesn't believe him).

Telle · 08-16-2011, 08:46 PM

vote hoopsguy

hoopsguy · 08-16-2011, 08:46 PM

The comment about getting lynched was in response to BK saying he wasn't sure he would be able to drum up the votes to do it. If I'm around in the thread, I'm usually pretty persuasive about not getting lynched. You can count on one hand, and still have fingers left over, the number of times that it has happened.

Right now I'm more or less keeping my daughter up later so I can try and avoid being lynched. Not exactly parent-of-the-year work on my part ... it has no bearing on me being villager/wolf, but it does indicate that I do try to fight hard for the village, especially when they are on the verge of putting me out to pasture prematurely.

08-16-2011, 08:14 PM	#2203
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	The message basically said they those in Vahala won't know how much of it we will get. Then that they have a chace in the day to find out who killed them. The last part ended with if nightkilled/people. I am trying to see if that eans anything. I tried matching up first letters and seeing if there is anything hidden within the message but o far it looks like either I am mising it or ther just wasn't enough there to go on. __________________ The EagleFan YouTube Channel - Reactions Soarin' & Scratchin' YouTube Channel - We react to music, videos, TV, we talk, we are planning some field trips Soarin' & Soothin' - Meditation, Relaxation, and Sleep Aid; mental health is important

08-16-2011, 08:17 PM	#2209
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	unvote mckerney vote BK __________________ The EagleFan YouTube Channel - Reactions Soarin' & Scratchin' YouTube Channel - We react to music, videos, TV, we talk, we are planning some field trips Soarin' & Soothin' - Meditation, Relaxation, and Sleep Aid; mental health is important

08-16-2011, 08:37 PM	#2232
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Vote count.... (looks around the room for Telle... ) __________________ The EagleFan YouTube Channel - Reactions Soarin' & Scratchin' YouTube Channel - We react to music, videos, TV, we talk, we are planning some field trips Soarin' & Soothin' - Meditation, Relaxation, and Sleep Aid; mental health is important

08-16-2011, 08:39 PM	#2236
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Day 6 voting as of post 2233: hoopsguy 4 - Racer (2174), Zinto (2189), MrBug708 (2193), Telle (2249) ntndeacon 3 - jeheinz72 (2135), mauboy1 (2220), hoopsguy (2241) mckerney 1 - Barkeep49 (2213) Barkeep49 1 - EagleFan (2209) Lathum 1 - Telle 1 - Narcizo (2113) Last edited by JAG : 08-16-2011 at 08:59 PM.

08-16-2011, 08:11 PM	#2201
MrBug708 Head Coach Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Whittier	Well..that changes things a little bit

08-16-2011, 08:16 PM	#2205
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Who said it was vote manipulation and not a straight out duking?

08-16-2011, 08:17 PM	#2207
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	DOLA - I'm still inclined to believe it was a mechanic acting the way Danny described. The best lies have a kernel of truth. I'm not saying he was the one who executed the mechanic but I don't think it was vote manipulation so much as a modified duke ability.

08-16-2011, 08:17 PM	#2208
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	We really don't know what it is.. making votes count double or more (for an EF voter), subtracting votes (from a danny voter), or duking.

08-16-2011, 08:18 PM	#2211
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I would really like people's thoughts about the inconsistency I pointed out in 2196. I think it's no small matter.

08-16-2011, 08:18 PM	#2213
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Might as well vote for it. Vote mckerny

08-16-2011, 08:23 PM	#2216
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	There's bound to be someone on DV who is a wolf and who can, credibly, claim an important vote on DV. Again not something which helps me, but I think is important to say.

08-16-2011, 08:25 PM	#2219
MrBug708 Head Coach Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Whittier	This is going to be one random crapshoot I think

08-16-2011, 08:26 PM	#2220
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	There are way too many votes still out there.. vote ntn

08-16-2011, 08:26 PM	#2221
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	Just going back to what I had before - making it official with ntn's full name now.

08-16-2011, 08:29 PM	#2225
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	You know what my vote is.

08-16-2011, 08:30 PM	#2226
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	If it wasn't a duking, they would have had to manipulate two votes... adding one or substracting one would only get them to a tie.

08-16-2011, 08:33 PM	#2229
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	In a vote so close (unless it was a duking which seems less likely since EagleFan was the attemped lynch), how likely is it that only one wolf voted for EagleFan? Unless you strongly suspect a day one duking, I think there's a strong chance Barkeep or Hoops is a wolf. With the info McKerney has provided us, I think Hoops is a bit more likely.

08-16-2011, 08:38 PM	#2233
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	How many wolves do we think are in this game anyway? I mean the number of villagers we already know who have roles doesn't ring true with the size of the game. I've got to believe that either mau or mckerny is a wolf. I've been going after mckerny but if people like mau better I'm happy to go that way as that's where I was headed earlier in the day.

08-16-2011, 08:39 PM	#2234
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	Votes as of post #2232: 1 - Lathum - hoopsguy (2094) 1 - Telle - Narcizo (2113) 2 - ntndeacon - jeheinz (2135), mauboy (2220) 3 - hoopsguy - Racer (2174), Zinto (2189), MrBug (2191) 1 - Barkeep - EagleFan (2209) 1 - mckerney - Barkeep (2213)

08-16-2011, 08:41 PM	#2238
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	Missing four voters?

08-16-2011, 08:41 PM	#2239
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I don't buy mckerny's reveal but I also don't think the manipulator needs to be hoops. I think a straight up ability is just as likely as some kind of vote multiplier.

08-16-2011, 08:42 PM	#2241
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'm going to have to move my vote to NTN, even though I really don't want to vote for him ... he is just rolled out there as an easy vote for not talking in spots like yesterday and today. And I don't really like to play along with that kind of logic as we get later into games. Especially if we might have an active player in that role tomorrow. That said, if you take me out you won't be getting a wolf. And I would like to see if we can win this game without a seer for the duration ... would be a nice accomplishment. So I'm going to try and avoid rolling over and dying meekly. UNVOTE LATHUM VOTE NTN

08-16-2011, 08:43 PM	#2242
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	Yeah I would like to know who has not put a vote in.

08-16-2011, 08:43 PM	#2244
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	Actually I can just figure it out myself instead of being lazy

08-16-2011, 08:46 PM	#2249
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	vote hoopsguy

08-16-2011, 08:46 PM	#2250
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	The comment about getting lynched was in response to BK saying he wasn't sure he would be able to drum up the votes to do it. If I'm around in the thread, I'm usually pretty persuasive about not getting lynched. You can count on one hand, and still have fingers left over, the number of times that it has happened. Right now I'm more or less keeping my daughter up later so I can try and avoid being lynched. Not exactly parent-of-the-year work on my part ... it has no bearing on me being villager/wolf, but it does indicate that I do try to fight hard for the village, especially when they are on the verge of putting me out to pasture prematurely.

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