Werewolf IX: Village of the Damned

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

Dola,

No point in making Fouts a target. Tonight he's either going to be dead or exonerated.

Unless the person i sent the potion to is going to use it...i hope he doesnt, but its possible since the potion doesnt reveal roles

[Poli]

My circle includes noone but the Hammer guy, and that's only if the mask is destroyed tonight.

[Raiders Army]

Going to bed. Tired of hearing of Meet the Parents here. Again, I have my silver bullets beside me...

[Poli]

Oh, and by the way, it's time to pass on another handy dandy item to my hammer buddy.

[Raiders Army]

inside my gun.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Fouts

This tells me Henry is in the clear. He broke the tie that killed the sorceror while digamma and jeff (both evil) wanted a tie.

Right now I only trust the following people: BrianD, Henry and myself.

This point means nothing. The wolves have NO CLUE who the sorcerer's are. Seems very odd that you are trying to protect a potential wolf, especially since digamma said he was going to PM henry...

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Unless the person i sent the potion to is going to use it...i hope he doesnt, but its possible since the potion doesnt reveal roles

You badly want villagers dead, for some reason.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

This point means nothing. The wolves have NO CLUE who the sorcerer's are. Seems very odd that you are trying to protect a potential wolf, especially since digamma said he was going to PM henry...

Read my second post, since people didn't understand the first one. The evil guys wanted a tie (including digamma), so why would a wolf break a tie and expose himself?

[Fouts]

Some of you guys are either wolves, or working real hard to help them. It boggles the mind. How about coming up with some clues rather than trying to squash any clues that are brought up?

[hoopsguy]

Current Score:
Villagers 15
Wolves 2

They kill tonight, so it goes to 14-2
If Fouts the villager dies tonight we are down to 13-2
If Fouts the wolf dies tonight it is 14-1
If Fouts lives by way of potion, there is going to be some serious suspicion tomorrow.

That is why I really hope you (Fouts) live by the Ointment and the Ointment alone. The Potion may only end up keeping you alive one more day, even if you are a villager

[BrianD]

Hoopsguy, why in your PMs with Digamma were you offering advice on how he should defend himself. If I called him out and he told you that he didn't have a mask, you should have been very suspicious of him. I'm not comfortable with the fact that you tried to help him with no suspicion at all.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Current Score:
Villagers 15
Wolves 2

They kill tonight, so it goes to 14-2
If Fouts the villager dies tonight we are down to 13-2
If Fouts the wolf dies tonight it is 14-1
If Fouts lives by way of potion, there is going to be some serious suspicion tomorrow.

That is why I really hope you (Fouts) live by the Ointment and the Ointment alone. The Potion may only end up keeping you alive one more day, even if you are a villager

If hes saved by the potion tonight, ill announce who i passed it to and he can be thrown under the spotlight...but remeber its not an expensive item and someone could have bought it last night

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Cloak of Whispers (2) – [Cloak] The owner of the Cloak may designate one other player to have unlimited PM rights with for one day.

Hmm, a CC to Peregrine isn't unlimited.

Peregrine has asked me to CC him on my PMs although I have forgotten to a bunch of team since the PM function doesn't have a reply to all.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Current Score:
Villagers 15
Wolves 2

They kill tonight, so it goes to 14-2
If Fouts the villager dies tonight we are down to 13-2
If Fouts the wolf dies tonight it is 14-1
If Fouts lives by way of potion, there is going to be some serious suspicion tomorrow.

That is why I really hope you (Fouts) live by the Ointment and the Ointment alone. The Potion may only end up keeping you alive one more day, even if you are a villager

The problem is... there is no guarantee that the ointment exists. So telling the guy with the potion not to use it, effectively kills me. I think it is pretty obvious I am a villager, but I realize trust is only gained once you die.

No problem, see you all in the next game.

[hoopsguy]

I'm pretty sure I've cut my credibility way down this game after supporting Digamma, but in the spirit of generating clues (as requested by Fouts):

1.) We have seen very, very little of Schmidty and MrBug in this game. Eagles has also been very close to the vest. Quiet would seem like optimal wolf qualities at this time, given the villager/wolf ratio. Let blabbermouths like me generate the distrust among villagers and defend the wolves. Second tier of quiet guys includes Mr. Wednesday, Kingfc, and Coffee Warlord - they have posted a few times, but I can't recall anything remotely controversial from any of these guys.
2.) I think Vince is innocent, but not enough to bump up into the Circle of Trust. He had questions about purchasing items earlier that indicated he was not in the know about this. I find it hard to believe that a wolf, collaborating with two other wolves, would not know this. If it is a trap, then nicely laid I suppose ...
3.) If Real is telling the truth about holding onto the Coat of Arms the first two days I would urge him to consider passing it now that he has outed himself. The wolves know who the wolves are and that there are a limited number of items that can defeat them. Having them know where one of those items is makes it more likely that a villager dies during the night. The other side of this is that you could inadvertantly pass it to a wolf - choose wisely if you do move it.

I would love to hear what other people are thinking. Since we can't PM with the other villagers, failing to chime in from time to time makes it that much harder to form any kind of impression.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Some of you guys are either wolves, or working real hard to help them. It boggles the mind. How about coming up with some clues rather than trying to squash any clues that are brought up?

I posted evidence on my target for the first few days(realdeal) quite repetively with only dubb noticing it(he agreed, and is conveniently now dead)...if the only other person to accuse the guy i accused is now dead by night action, im hesitent to act...

[hoopsguy]

Brian, I'll try to replay my thought process over again, realizing that I'm working backwards now with knowledge I now possess.

1.) I saw that he was accused. I wanted to get the Mask/No Mask thing out in the open as quickly as possible.
2.) It struck me that a wolf would always say he had the mask at some point - which is why in the PM I indicated 'I wish you had said something earlier'
3.) When he said he didn't have the mask at any point - again, a surprising tactic (to me) for a werewolf to take it pretty much made one of you a werewolf
4.) Once I considered how I would play as a werewolf, and that I would not even think holding onto a one-shot cloak for two days, I didn't think he was the wolf
5.) Since I thought you were the wolf (sorry again about this) I then tried to assist him
6.) Some lingering guilt about how we played out the Lathum thing yesterday played a role at some level

That is about all I can offer on this topic. I'll try to expand on any additional questions you might have. I've tried to provide as much value to the villagers here as I possibly can - especially in light of the fact that I screwed the pooch so badly on this one.

[Poli]

I'm kind of waiting to see what my hammer man does. Guys, feel free to pass items on to me, the wolves haven't figured it out yet.

[Poli]

My circle of trust has just expanded...to the moderator.

[RealDeal]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I posted evidence on my target for the first few days(realdeal) quite repetively with only dubb noticing it(he agreed, and is conveniently now dead)...if the only other person to accuse the guy i accused is now dead by night action, im hesitent to act...

Blade, misunderstanding a hint I was trying to drop to you about my item is not evidence. Hell, before Digamma was accused of being a wolf, he was trying to frame me. I'm beginning to think that you're dumb like a fox.

Hoops, I agree with you about the coat. I don't want to say too much because I want to keep the wolves guessing, but I agree with your point.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, not telling you to pass it - just indicating what you did now should at least put some guesswork back into the process for them.

[Poli]

It was quiet, too quiet.

[MrBug708]

Looks like whoever had the Ring of Wisdom knew what they were talking about.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Those are the timestamps I have on messages. My time right now for your post (#679) shows Today 12:38 AM.

If you're actually in Chicago, you need to fix your board time zone setting.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm pretty sure I've cut my credibility way down this game after supporting Digamma, but in the spirit of generating clues (as requested by Fouts):

1.) We have seen very, very little of Schmidty and MrBug in this game.

For someone who just supported a wolf publicly, you seem awful eager to start a bandwagon early. I posted that I'd be gone til after the vote and while I don't have much analysis to offer I've still been active enough to read what's going on.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Fouts

This tells me Henry is in the clear. He broke the tie that killed the sorceror while digamma and jeff (both evil) wanted a tie.

Remember, the wolves did not know who the sorcerors were, nor vice versa.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Second tier of quiet guys includes Mr. Wednesday, Kingfc, and Coffee Warlord - they have posted a few times, but I can't recall anything remotely controversial from any of these guys.

I have no insight whatsoever, the only item I held was the tablet, which was passed to Lathum with a message of little import. Realistically, we've had very little to go on until the Digamma vote, and even that one picked up steam quickly enough that I would think the wolves would have gone for the "lynch" side.

[digamma]

Oh well. Not a lot you can do when a seer gets you this early in the game.

[Vince]

digamma -- for what it's worth, I think you played it about as perfectly as you could have. If I didn't consider the strategy behind BrianD, I would have thought you were innocent...the non-use of the Mask defense was quite a powerful ploy, I thought.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm pretty sure I've cut my credibility way down this game after supporting Digamma, but in the spirit of generating clues (as requested by Fouts):

2.) I think Vince is innocent, but not enough to bump up into the Circle of Trust. He had questions about purchasing items earlier that indicated he was not in the know about this. I find it hard to believe that a wolf, collaborating with two other wolves, would not know this. If it is a trap, then nicely laid I suppose ...

Thanks for the thoughts -- the buying items thing was pretty retarded on my part, but the real reason that I overlooked it was because most of the items you listed as 'I would rather have this than the Cloak of Whispers' were items you could not buy, and were not very likely to be passed, ever. Still a pretty ridiculous mistake, and probably quite telling of what sort of item I have.

Currently, what I think...well, there's a lot that I don't know. I am a little concerned about Ardent right now -- I can understand the whole Mask thing, but why is he dead-set on destroying everything? In reference to post # 704 --

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Oh, and by the way, it's time to pass on another handy dandy item to my hammer buddy.

This isn't much to worry about, because tonight something will (should?) be destroyed, and we will know whether or not the 'smith is on the level. It would also go quite a ways towards clearing Ardent. So though I'm worried about him, it should resolve itself with no effort on our parts.

hoopsguy falls under the BrianD defense -- why in the hell would he so vocally defend digamma if he knew that digamma was a wolf? Terrible, terrible strategy in a game where the wolves are hugely outnumbered. However, "it's crazy enough that it just might work!" I'm not ready to completely clear him because it looks like a stupid move.

Fouts...well, Fouts is a tough one. I'm pretty much sure that he's a villager, but I don't think anyone else agrees with me really. While I want to keep him alive, I think it wouldn't do anything but negatively impact us. What worries me is that when someone uses the ointment on him, THAT PERSON is told what Fouts' role is. We then have to believe the user of the ointment when they tell us what Fouts' role is. If the Ointment is owned by a wolf right now, we're up shit creek without a paddle on Fouts.

BrianD -- he's on the level. What can I say? The guy straight outed a wolf. If he's sacrificing one of his own this early in the game while they're already WAY behind...man, ballsy move. I think it's safe to say he's a good guy.

And everyone else...well, I don't know really anything about them. Last night I had an extremely strong suspicion of SnDvls, but the day's events sort of made me ignore that. He was fairly quiet today if I remember correctly...

I think I'd like to wait a bit more before jumping on the quiet guys like Schmidty and Mr. Bug -- while I think it's a great strategy for the wolves (especially when they're so outnumbered), people do have lives.

Edited to fix an incorrect php tag.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Vince

Fouts...well, Fouts is a tough one. I'm pretty much sure that he's a villager, but I don't think anyone else agrees with me really. While I want to keep him alive, I think it wouldn't do anything but negatively impact us. What worries me is that when someone uses the ointment on him, THAT PERSON is told what Fouts' role is. We then have to believe the user of the ointment when they tell us what Fouts' role is. If the Ointment is owned by a wolf right now, we're up shit creek without a paddle on Fouts.

BrianD -- he's on the level. What can I say? The guy straight outed a wolf. If he's sacrificing one of his own this early in the game while they're already WAY behind...man, ballsy move. I think it's safe to say he's a good guy.

What I find funny is that you (and everyone else) will clear Brian, but not myself, when we both did the same thing - put our necks on the line to get a wolf. The only difference is my wolf was actually a sheep in wolves clothing.

We did the same thing, we are both villagers. I fear it is too late.

And how can it negatively impact the villagers if I am alive using items against the wolves???

[Peregrine]

The night is misty and cool, with the smell of fear in the air. Will the villagers be able to find the remaining wolves? They've done well so far, but wolves are notoriously crafty. There is screaming at one point, and in the morning the body of BrianD is found, he was an innocent villager.

Fouts is found alone and dead in his cabin. He was an innocent villager, but the poison claimed his life.

The broken remains of a Mask of Lies were found in the village this morning.

edit - Fouts had three silver pieces on his body, these were distributed at random among the people of the village!

Day 4

Lathum - Lynched Day 2 - villager
kingfc22
sundvls
blade6119
Coffee Warlord
Henry296
BrianD - killed Night 3 - villager
digamma - Lynched Day 3 - werewolf
eaglesfan27
hoopsguy
fouts - Poisoned and died Night 3 - villager
schmidty
dubb93 - killed Night 2 - villager
vince
Qwikshot - Lynched Day 1 - Sorceror
RealDeal
Jeff061 - Killed Night 1 - Sorceror
Raiders Army
Mr. Wednesday
MrBug708
Superman=#54
ardent enthusiast

Lynch votes due by 8 pm eastern.

[Fouts]

Just as I thought, good luck sheep.

[Vince]

Sorry man, but I think you would have been voted off tomorrow or the next day anyways -- and since you were a villager, that wouldn't have gotten us anywhere but allowed the Wolves to go a day without worrying about possibly being lynched.

[Raiders Army]

13-2. While I don't mind the fact that we are winning this thing, and will eventually win it, we just traded 4 humans for 1 wolf. At that rate, only 5 of us will finish this game. I'd like to think that we'd want more to survive in the end, but that's just me.

Down to business. Let's think about this for a second. At the point which we killed two sorcerors, the wolves' best strategy would have been to lay low. (Think like a wolf...be the wolf) However, yesterday probably threw a monkey wrench into their plans. When BrianD outed digamma, I would guess that they would scramble to protect their already small number. Let me do a post check analysis. brb

[Poli]

Well, there certainly is a player in my circle of trust now, the hammer man. He should be destroying something tomorrow for us as well.

[Raiders Army]

Take it for what it's worth. I already told you what I believe about the post count activity. Dolaposts and multiple dolaposts only count as one post. If someone interrupted your dola and you responded, I counted both of your posts. This is raw data and doesn't take into account content of posts.

Name: Day 2 posts/Day 3 posts

Ardent: 14/7
Raiders: 13/15
BrianD: 10/9
hoopsguy: 10/18
Coffee Warlord: 7/7
RealDeal: 7/6
Mr. Wednesday: 7/2
henry296: 6/6
Vince: 4/12
SnDvls: 4/6
Superman: 3/2
Blade: 3/1
MrBug: 2/4
Schmidty: 2/1
Eaglesfan: 1/7
kingfc22: 1/1

The ones I put in red are the ones whose post counts when up substantially when a wolf's head was on the line. The ones in blue are the ones whose post counts went down.

Although MrBug's post count doubled, he didn't post much anyhow, so I don't consider him a prime suspect....yet.

[Raiders Army]

Also, I'm fairly certain a good strategy by the wolves would be to have one of the other two defend digamma while the other one laid low. So with that theory in hand, I think one of the red names above is a wolf and the other is probably at the bottom of the list.

[Poli]

As someone mentioned earlier, I think I should be cleared since Fouts was a villager. I think I've proven I know who has the hammer as well, and believe they're in the clear as well. Might not be, maybe he's a wolf playing along.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Take it for what it's worth. I already told you what I believe about the post count activity. Dolaposts and multiple dolaposts only count as one post. If someone interrupted your dola and you responded, I counted both of your posts. This is raw data and doesn't take into account content of posts.

Name: Day 2 posts/Day 3 posts

Ardent: 14/7
Raiders: 13/15
BrianD: 10/9
hoopsguy: 10/18
Coffee Warlord: 7/7
RealDeal: 7/6
Mr. Wednesday: 7/2
henry296: 6/6
Vince: 4/12
SnDvls: 4/6
Superman: 3/2
Blade: 3/1
MrBug: 2/4
Schmidty: 2/1
Eaglesfan: 1/7
kingfc22: 1/1

The ones I put in red are the ones whose post counts when up substantially when a wolf's head was on the line. The ones in blue are the ones whose post counts went down.

Although MrBug's post count doubled, he didn't post much anyhow, so I don't consider him a prime suspect....yet.

My post patterns changed strictly due to the fact that my wife was home all day on day 2, and I didn't get a chance to post from work on that day. On day 3, she went out a while which gave me a chance to post more. She is on vacation this week, so my voting will be somewhat sporadic (however, I'm hopeful I'll get a chance to post from work a few times today.)

[Eaglesfan27]

Dola -

Also, I'll make sure I make time to post if I have something substantial to say.

[hoopsguy]

Good news on the destroyed mask. Bad news on the dead villagers, particularly since Brian was the most widely trusted after yesterdays events and Fouts would have been very close to in the clear if healed by the ointment.

Ardent, would you be willing to indicate what item you think is being destroyed next? A couple of people have expressed concern about you destroying every item that comes to you; I would like to think you are helping us eliminate items dangerous to the villagers.

Also, I wanted to let everyone know that I have passed the Notebook on to parts unknown.

Peregrine, does the Notebook detect an item that has been purchased that night? Not who has it, but that it is in the game? I'm thinking Book of the Damned here, which I consider a very, very big threat to the villagers at this point.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Good news on the destroyed mask. Bad news on the dead villagers, particularly since Brian was the most widely trusted after yesterdays events and Fouts would have been very close to in the clear if healed by the ointment.

Ardent, would you be willing to indicate what item you think is being destroyed next? A couple of people have expressed concern about you destroying every item that comes to you; I would like to think you are helping us eliminate items dangerous to the villagers.

I'd rather not at this point. I might later if it's that much of a concern. I'd rather not let the wolves know what's getting destroyed. I wouldn't be concerned about me destroying items that would benefit us, the villagers. I certainly wouldn't do that. I'm only sending the Hammer things that are dangerous to us.

That said, the only thing I picked up yesterday was a friggin silver piece. I'd like to think that someone would have sent me something to be destroyed...I was a little surprised nothing came my way. I figured you guys would trust me by now. With the mask destroyed that maybe that will clear the way for more items to come my way.

[Poli]

Good job, BrianD. Thanks for the help. Sorry you perished.

[hoopsguy]

Raiders, I'm not sure why you group Eagles and Vince along with me in red - yes, their post count was higher on one day but did either of them speak up for Digamma in the least? I recall feeling very lonely yesterday - which ended up being a very good thing since Dig was a wolf.

Fouts as a villager absolutely defines that Lathum had a mask - don't think there was enormous doubt on this point but it is now confirmed. Another mask was destroyed last night. This should increase the value of the 'seer' items - much less chance of a false reading. We still have sufficient numbers that going for a 1:1 trade makes little sense for the wolves. But that advantage will only hold up for a couple of days if we do not continue to collect wolf hides.

[BrianD]

I thought I might wake up this morning dead. I hoped that no longer having a helpful item would save me, but I guess not. I think vengence won out over strategy, and that helps the villagers. Go get 'em guys.

[hoopsguy]

I'm pretty close to trusting you, AE. If the item that is destroyed tonight is wolf-friendly like the mask that would be one more step in that direction.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I thought I might wake up this morning dead. I hoped that no longer having a helpful item would save me, but I guess not. I think vengence won out over strategy, and that helps the villagers. Go get 'em guys.

I wonder if I'll be next now since I got the mask destroyed. The wolves have to believe I'm serious at this point.

[Peregrine]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Peregrine, does the Notebook detect an item that has been purchased that night? Not who has it, but that it is in the game? I'm thinking Book of the Damned here, which I consider a very, very big threat to the villagers at this point.

I'm assuming you mean, if it was used tonight on an item purchased tonight? No, because in the order of events, items are activated before items are purchased. It would confirm whether an item is in the game or not though, at the time it was used.

[hoopsguy]

For those villagers accumulating silver it probably makes sense to start purchasing items that are a threat to the wolves.

Dart (3)
Ointment (2)
Water (3)
Lance (6) - serious savings required
Pendant (3)

I think we would have to be suspicious of anyone holding the Coat of Arms - it buys the wolves an extra day of eating.

What are people's thoughts on the hidden vote items? My thought is that they are more wolf-friendly than villager friendly, since disguised votes are more beneficial to the hunted by potentially skewing voting patterns. Not that we have had particularly close races the last two days ...