Werewolf LXXVI - The Werewolf Draft! Game over, see last pages for details

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't like the one candidate we have, and no one has done anything I can yet pin down as wolfy. So I'm going to think outside the box like LSG and try to peek into hoops' cryptic mind.

Everyone says Lathum is the obvious wolf, or that he plays it so well, he naturally would be a pick there. I am thinking hoops will take it to the next level. There is a known connection between saldana and Lathum that is often played up. hoops knows Lathum likely gets himself lynched early (sorry Lathum). For whatever inane reason, people will figure the drafter would have Lathum and saldana on the same side, being concerned that they might have special insight into one another on opposite sides. I can see that reasoning, even though I have seen enough of both to know that's not true. But the point is, what will people generally believe, in a drafted game? Lathum and saldana are on the same side. Lathum is lynched, comes up villager. Ergo, saldana is a villager. And he even scans as a villager, because hoops knows saldana is a very smart player and would be a nice unexpected choice for the cunning wolf.

So I'm going with sal.

VOTE SALDANA

This is a very disappointing analysis, frankly. I think the stuff that LSG and others have done is much better. After having slept, I'm suddenly more inclined towards believing Lathum is telling the truth than I was yesterday and am now thinking about changing my vote to DT or Mrs Schmidty.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This is a very disappointing analysis, frankly. I think the stuff that LSG and others have done is much better. After having slept, I'm suddenly more inclined towards believing Lathum is telling the truth than I was yesterday and am now thinking about changing my vote to DT or Mrs Schmidty.

For the record, I am also getting wolfy vibes from DT. I don't get his play at all so far.

And as I said before, I think Mrs. Schmidty is a good choice as I think Hoops may very well have picked her.

But I still think Lathum is the right call today.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by KWhit

For the record, I am also getting wolfy vibes from DT. I don't get his play at all so far.

And as I said before, I think Mrs. Schmidty is a good choice as I think Hoops may very well have picked her.

But I still think Lathum is the right call today.

I'd love to talk this out. What are the odds that Lathum makes a fake reveal here? In favor of making a fake reveal is the fact that the fake and real seers just assume that Lathum is the other seer as thus feel no inherent need to vote against him. IN favor of a fake reveal is that he did it very very early.

Against a fake reveal is that he did it very very early. He was under a lot of pressure and this seems but a short term way of getting pressure off (what happens if he's still alive D3? We've got to lynch him then, right?).

[oliegirl]

I've gave this some thought last night and this morning. I think in a game this size, with 4 or 5 women (don't remember off the top of my head), I figure there is a wolf in that group. It's not me, and LSG isn't pinging my radar, which leaves Telle and Mrs. Schmidty. Mrs. Schmidty played a great first game, and I can see Hoops drafting her as a wolf to challenge her and possibly throw us off with a newer player being a wolf. So I'm going with my gut here...

VOTE MRS. SCHMIDTY

[mccollins]

As I said earlier, if someone is going to reveal as a villager role (even the possibility of a confusing fake seer), I'm going to give them at least a day or so reprieve. There is still some kind of a percentage chance that Lathum is the real seer and then we'd really be screwed.

LSG provided some insightful analysis last night and the next highest candidate right now is DaddyTorgo. Let's see if the wolves move to save one of them.

Vote DaddyTorgo

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'd love to talk this out. What are the odds that Lathum makes a fake reveal here? In favor of making a fake reveal is the fact that the fake and real seers just assume that Lathum is the other seer as thus feel no inherent need to vote against him. IN favor of a fake reveal is that he did it very very early.

Against a fake reveal is that he did it very very early. He was under a lot of pressure and this seems but a short term way of getting pressure off (what happens if he's still alive D3? We've got to lynch him then, right?).

Well, one other thing it does is if he is a wolf, it gives him a few nights to make the kill (as opposed to the cunning wolf). Lathum would have at least a few votes against him (like me) and would be able to be the wolf to actually make the kill. When called on it, he would likely just say he was being set up by the wolves.

So it could buy time and some security for the cunning wolf perhaps.

And let's face it. You do anything to get out of a lynch, even if it's just for a day or two.

[st.cronin]

Official vote count:

6 - Lathum - DaddyTorgo (250), KWhit (278), Barkeep (283), RendeR (294), Danny (431), Alan T (464)
4 - DaddyTorgo - Lathum (339), LoneStarGirl (538), PackerFanatic (556), mccollins (605)
3 - Mrs. Schmidty - EagleFan (362), saldana (596), oliegirl (604)
2 - EagleFan - Schmidty (394), SnDvls (580)
1 - OlieGirl - Passacaglia (270)
1 - KWhit - claphasma (527)
1 - saldana - Chief Rum (594)

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Against a fake reveal is that he did it very very early. He was under a lot of pressure and this seems but a short term way of getting pressure off (what happens if he's still alive D3? We've got to lynch him then, right?).

From Lathum's responses to the criticism for revealing, it seems like he did not feel he would have the time to swing the vote off of himself with his limited availability this morning.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by mccollins

As I said earlier, if someone is going to reveal as a villager role (even the possibility of a confusing fake seer), I'm going to give them at least a day or so reprieve. There is still some kind of a percentage chance that Lathum is the real seer and then we'd really be screwed.

This is what really bugs me about the people voting for Lathum. Sure, it's a long shot that he has the seer/fool role, but stranger things have happened. We at least need to give it a day or two to play out and see what happens.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm not a wolf

[DaddyTorgo]

not sure why people are getting a wolfy vibe from me - maybe because i feel like i'm settling back into the game, and my best games as a villager have always been when i am more vocal and thinking things through out loud and all

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'd love to talk this out. What are the odds that Lathum makes a fake reveal here? In favor of making a fake reveal is the fact that the fake and real seers just assume that Lathum is the other seer as thus feel no inherent need to vote against him. IN favor of a fake reveal is that he did it very very early.

Against a fake reveal is that he did it very very early. He was under a lot of pressure and this seems but a short term way of getting pressure off (what happens if he's still alive D3? We've got to lynch him then, right?).

I think he just got desperate. There was a definite run on him, and he said he was worried that there could be eight to ten votes on him by this morning. So instead of just going down on Day 1 he could have taken a gamble. And with knowing that there's two people who think they're seers in the game it's not a real bad gamble to take. Especially since he set himself up as "probably" the fake seer.. he can spend all game going "this guy came up good" and not have anybody refute his fake seer status for days on end.

[Schmidty]

Hi.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Hi.

Hi

[claphamsa]

hi

[claphamsa]

I plan on moving my vote, problem is, I dont wanna pile on lathum, and I dont get much from DT.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I plan on moving my vote, problem is, I dont wanna pile on lathum, and I dont get much from DT.

Vote for Mrs Schmidty

[Passacaglia]

.iH

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Vote for Mrs Schmidty

What makes you so sure about this that you're not only voting for her yourself, but also encouraging others to?

[RendeR]

Meh.

[RendeR]

Out till 2-ish, see y'al later.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What makes you so sure about this that you're not only voting for her yourself, but also encouraging others to?

Pass...it was a joke, didn't you see the smilie?????

I'm not sure, no one is sure of a day 1 vote, and we are rarely sure of a day 2 vote. Like I said in my original post/vote, I'm going with my gut.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Pass...it was a joke, didn't you see the smilie?????

I'm not sure, no one is sure of a day 1 vote, and we are rarely sure of a day 2 vote. Like I said in my original post/vote, I'm going with my gut.

I saw the smiley, but if it's a joke, I don't think I get it. I'm trying not to be a fuddy-duddy or some kind of joke critic here, but...what's the joke?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Telle

I think he just got desperate. There was a definite run on him, and he said he was worried that there could be eight to ten votes on him by this morning. So instead of just going down on Day 1 he could have taken a gamble. And with knowing that there's two people who think they're seers in the game it's not a real bad gamble to take. Especially since he set himself up as "probably" the fake seer.. he can spend all game going "this guy came up good" and not have anybody refute his fake seer status for days on end.

so are yo saying you don't believe me?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Hi.

hi!

[Lathum]

When I am lynched and come up seer look to the people who voted late on me then didn't move there is probably a wolf there.

They know I am telling the truth and this is an easy chance to eliminate me instead of having to waste a night kill on me and a potential BG block to cause problems.


They can also easily use the excuse that they didn't believe my reveal.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so are yo saying you don't believe me?

I have serious doubts about your truthfulness. But nothing in werewolf is ever absolute. I do think I'm probably going to vote for you unless something comes up. I'm just not really buying your story.

[DaddyTorgo]

why would poli make you the seer lathum? isn't that asking for trouble? unless he made you the fake seer - in which case eliminating you isn't a bad thing necessarily

[Danny]

I'm a bit torn myself. I actually tend to believe Lathum as well, but I honestly doubt Poli would have made him the real seer. Hopefully some more evidence comes up for someone else.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

why would poli make you the seer lathum? isn't that asking for trouble? unless he made you the fake seer - in which case eliminating you isn't a bad thing necessarily

already stated I am pretty sure he would make me the fake seer. And on the off chance I am the real seer eliminating me is a very bad thing.


Another thing I was thinking, Poli could have made me the real seer thinking the wolves wouldn't night kill me because I always get heat so I would get at least a few nights scans in.

[Lathum]

dola- CR's vote also worries me. He cast a throw away for a plausable candidate and has the built in work excuse for not being around at the deadline ( by no means a knock on CR or his schedule, just stating a fact)

[DaddyTorgo]

well if you get lynched and you come up the seer i think we assume you are the fake seer. if poli made you the real seer then i think we will all have words for him after the game about what a blunder that was.

i don't think poli makes you the real seer - by your logic he knows you draw heat so he could have/should have seen a situation like this developing, and frankly I think he's too smart to do that.

i think you're either (a) the fake seer, or (b) a wolf (b/c poli forced hoops into taking you), or (c) the cultist (b/c poli forced hoops into taking you). Of those 3, there isn't really a negative in my book. Sure the fake seer and the cultist count as villagers, but if we don't lynch you odds are we're going to lynch another villager anyways (especially on D1), so we might as well get rid of one of these roles.

I'm discounting the possibility you're a vanilla villager, since if you were you would not have revealed as a seer (whether that reveal is fake or not). I think you have a role.

[Lathum]

DT- How can you POSSIBLY say it is a good thing lynching me when there is a possibility I am the real seer?

[DaddyTorgo]

i understand you wanting to save yourself and continue in the game - however I don't see a negative in lynching you lathum, and i think if we were having this conversation about anybody else you'd agree.

you want to save yourself so you can keep playing, and i understand that, but you have to understand that the benefits of lynching you FAR outweigh the risks at this point. and if for some odd reason poli did make you the real seer, then poli really put his own team in position to lose the game spectacularly and TBH the blame rests on him. it's not as if he didn't have a ton of other options for people to make seer.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

DT- How can you POSSIBLY say it is a good thing lynching me when there is a possibility I am the real seer?

because as i stated i put the possibility of you being the real seer at 0%. If Poli made you the real seer, then TBH he fucked up bigtime and cost us our seer, and he really should have seen that coming. If he had any choice in the matter at all (which we now know he did) I believe there is a 0% chance he made you the real seer.

[Lathum]

DT, you must be joking.

If you believe I am not a wolf the lynching me is 100% the wrong move.

[st.cronin]

Note for all villagers and wolves with night actions: You can, and should, make your action conditional to the lynch. Keep in mind there is a duke in this game!

Any questions about how this might work, please pm me.

[claphamsa]

do we have avote count?

[DaddyTorgo]

Lynching the cultist is not a great move since the cultist counts as a villager. Lynching the fake seer is also not great since the fake seer counts as a villager.

However you as the cultist have the ability to cause a lot of havoc (and since the wolves know who you are they won't night kill you) and misdirection.

If we lynch you and you're the seer I think we assume 100% that you were the fake seer and operate on that assumption.

Either of those two ways, yes we are down 1 villager, but since we are likely to lynch a villager on D1 anyways, getting rid of someone with the ability to confuse and disorient us (whether on purpose or not) is not that large a negative.

And if you are a wolf, we've netted a wolf.

I suppose there's an argument for keeping the fake seer alive if it's "the fake seer scans everyone opposite of what they really are" -- but of course nobody knows if this is the case, and i think it's far more likely as someone broke down earlier, that the fake seer scans everyone as villager.

[Telle]

As of post 638:

6 - Lathum - DaddyTorgo (250), KWhit (278), Barkeep (283), RendeR (294), Danny (431), Alan T (464)
4 - DaddyTorgo - Lathum (339), LoneStarGirl (538), PackerFanatic (556), mccollins (605)
3 - Mrs. Schmidty - EagleFan (362), saldana (596), oliegirl (604)
2 - EagleFan - Schmidty (394), SnDvls (580)
1 - OlieGirl - Passacaglia (270)
1 - KWhit - claphasma (527)
1 - saldana - Chief Rum (594)

[Lathum]

DT, I think it is funny you are now pushing that I could be the cultist as well.

you want me lynched so bad it is funny.

lynching me is a bad thing if there is a .01% chance I am the real seer then

[DaddyTorgo]

villagers remember -voting for wolves in the final tally gives someone other than the cunning wolf the ability to make the kill.

actually maybe we could use this to our advantage if/when we get rid of the cunning wolf...hard to figure how to explain what i'm thinking, but i presume someone else has also had the same thought?

[DaddyTorgo]

lathum - i said you could be the cultist a while back - as early as yesterday afternoon i do believe

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I saw the smiley, but if it's a joke, I don't think I get it. I'm trying not to be a fuddy-duddy or some kind of joke critic here, but...what's the joke?

OMG - I said it tongue-in-cheek, like "hey, if you don't know who to vote for, vote for Mrs Schmidty." It's not the first time someone has made that type of a comment in a ww game...

Are you really puzzled by this or are you harassing me for personal enjoyment????

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

OMG - I said it tongue-in-cheek, like "hey, if you don't know who to vote for, vote for Mrs Schmidty." It's not the first time someone has made that type of a comment in a ww game...

Are you really puzzled by this or are you harassing me for personal enjoyment????

Likely the latter

[claphamsa]

Thanks telle


unvote kwhitt
vote DT

[DaddyTorgo]

ugh

don't vote for me clap

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

ugh

don't vote for me clap

Quite a convincing argument

[Lathum]

see what DT is doing everyone.

he is rationalizing why you should lynch me so when I come back good he can turn around and try and say it was the right thing to do.

when I come back seer I really hope you guys look strongly at him and kwhit.

[Telle]

Well I've voiced my concerns over Lathum's reveal, and I'm really not getting a wolfy vibe off of DT. So, I'm going to go ahead and put my vote in now.

VOTE LATHUM