Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, Lathum - I'm definitely interested in exploring this topic as well. I did not give you word-for-word on my role description (that would be against the rules), but I certainly feel like I captured the spirit of it.

[hoopsguy]

About the only area I can think of that would not smell of luck is that I was unsuccessful in guarding my last pack's Alpha.

[Barkeep49]

Well it looks like cronin clears me more directly, but hoops I put in a key statement or two in my response to saldana. I hope he picks up on it. And saldana if you didn't go back and reread what I posted.

[st.cronin]

Well, I was hoping that your role description would have something to do with luck - I was thinking perhaps "gambler." I don't really know - if I had to guess, I'd guess that you were a wolf, and that there is some hidden game mechanism going on that neither of us is privvy to. But it's possible that you are the wizard.

[Lathum]

Is it possible that hoops doesn't smell of luck because he hasn't had a sucsessful protection?

And that you sense enchantment around hoops because he has the ability to protect?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Is it possible that hoops doesn't smell of luck because he hasn't had a sucsessful protection?

And that you sense enchantment around hoops because he has the ability to protect?

I did not sense enchantment around hoops. The only thing I sensed was an absence of luck.

My role says that I will NOT be able to find the wizard. I don't know if that means the wizard will turn up as an ordinary wolf or not.

[hoopsguy]

Since Cronin "sniffed" me on Night 0, could I have had a successful protection at that point?

I did send in a Night 0 protection order, but had assumed at the time it was not processed (that it was not considered an action because there was nothing to protect from). But given that Fozzie hasn't sent me a PM with results for any of the subsequent ones perhaps I was allowed the action after all ...

For what it is worth, I sent in an order to protect Qwikshot on Night 0. He is a player that I have felt like I had pretty good reads on from game to game and I had a feeling he was a wolf by the time I sent the action in.

[Barkeep49]

Hoops your statements are making me distrust you more and more. If this were a normal day, I would put my vote on you now and be quite satisfied about it. Frankly leaving saldana out there? Doesn't really make sense. A N0 protect? Umm that doesn't make sense either. With cronin, a player high on my trust list, suggesting bad things about you, and a now dead wolf who insisted, unequivocally, that you were evil the signs are starting to point against you.

[st.cronin]

Heads up: just got some clarification from Foz. Hoopsguy smelled the same as the others, it was just the description was different. Now, it's still possible that one of them is the wizard, but none of them are apparently henchmen.

[Barkeep49]

Oh. Well that changes things slightly.

[st.cronin]

Barkeep, I would rather go in a different direction, because even if hoopsguy is bad, I don't think he can be killed in a normal lynch. I would like to look at Anxiety and Tyrith, possibly somebody else. The folks I have cleared are not good lynch candidates, because they are either wolves or the wizard.

[Coffee Warlord]

Unvote Hoops

[hoopsguy]

OK, working through trust lists at this point ...

Trust - myself
Near Trust - Cronin
More Trust than Not - Barkeep, Coffee
Neutral - AlanT, Ardent, Saldana, Lathum
Makes me Nervous - Schmidty, Anxiety, Tyrith
Distrust -

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Barkeep, I would rather go in a different direction, because even if hoopsguy is bad, I don't think he can be killed in a normal lynch. I would like to look at Anxiety and Tyrith, possibly somebody else. The folks I have cleared are not good lynch candidates, because they are either wolves or the wizard.

Fine. No hoops it is for now. Anxiety has rung a couple of alarm bells for me as well. I will compile my case against him, and perhaps even do a post summary, either today or tomorrow for him. Not sure I want to vote for him, but certainly some more scrutiny wouldn't hurt there.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, working through trust lists at this point ...

Trust - myself
Near Trust - Cronin
More Trust than Not - Barkeep, Coffee
Neutral - AlanT, Ardent, Saldana, Lathum
Makes me Nervous - Schmidty, Anxiety, Tyrith
Distrust -

So if Cronin is near trust, and I am more trust then not, what makes saldana neutral? Also how does Coffee get on your more trust then not?

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, I don't follow you at all with the "NO protect" - can you explain?

As far as the bodyguard role goes, it is my first time really playing with the role (I faked it a couple of games back) and I've had some notions about the relative importance of it in the grand scheme of things, and what would be an effective way to use it, that I've wanted to try ... obviously I'm not as clever with it as I thought I might be.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, I don't follow you at all with the "NO protect" - can you explain?

As far as the bodyguard role goes, it is my first time really playing with the role (I faked it a couple of games back) and I've had some notions about the relative importance of it in the grand scheme of things, and what would be an effective way to use it, that I've wanted to try ... obviously I'm not as clever with it as I thought I might be.

It's a moot issue. You had suggested that you had done a Night 0 protect, as a reason why you smelled different. This would be MOST unorthodox indeed for there to be a kill before a D1 vote. With you now smelling the same the issue doesn't matter.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, you and Coffee were both cleared by Cronin (well, at least cleared of being henchmen). So that is why I have the two of you elevated in trust compared to the others.

Saldana falls down a level from that up until the point where I believe that you guys have the same role. You say that you left something in your PM that he should recognize - if/when he does I'll elevate him a level.

[hoopsguy]

I sent in the Night 0 protect, not knowing if it would be honored or not. I had assumed, based on no message from SirFoz, that it was not honored.

But since I have not gotten a message from him after any of the nights up to this point I don't know if it was or not.

I agree it is a moot point - Qwikshot is dead and there is no impact at this point on whether or not my request was allowed within the framework of the game.

[Coffee Warlord]

So, if we for the moment clear the people on Cronin's list.

Who needs to move under the microscope?

[st.cronin]

At this point, I trust hoops, coffee, and barkeep all exactly the same. Saldana and lathum I slightly trust. That leaves anxiety, tyrith, schmidty, ardent, and alan - two of whom are probably henchmen.

[st.cronin]

Any thoughts on how I've played this role? Was I too obvious? Did I look at the wrong guys?

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith - Barkeep (158), Path (160)
Blade - Qwik (161), mckerney (176), cronin (188), Tanglewood (251)
mckerney - Lathum (168)
Tanglewood - Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254)
Barkeep - Anxiety (219)
Schmidty - Ardent (290)

No votes: AlanT (out for day), Dubb

Going back to the Day 1 vote - where do you think the wizard/henchmen stashed their votes?

I've marked Cronin's list in Green and the dead players in red. Assuming there was not some kind of a deceptive henchman (appears as a wolf when dead) we have seen everyone who voted for Blade show up as accounted for already. What are the odds that there was not a single wizard/henchman on either of the top two candidates that day?

That leaves Schmidty, Saldana, and Tyrith as suspects. I've put this theory out for a couple of days now, but have seen very little commentary on it. The bad guys have to stick their votes somewhere and would prefer to avoid being grouped based on standard bad-guy play ...

[st.cronin]

Saldana worries me somewhat. He said something that I believe to be inaccurate, and I'd like to hear him describe more fully.

[st.cronin]

dola -

describe his role

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, did you get spooked on Day 2 when Blade came up different than me? Because I just about got whiplash from your reversal on me between Day 1 and Day 2.

I like your choices overall, although I might not have had Warlord in that list. And there seemed to be enough voices yesterday (yours included) saying that Blade was good that I backed off of him despite being extremely suspicious going into the day.

[Abe Sargent]

I just finished catching up for today. Here's why I may jump from cronin to hoopsguy or saldana.

I believe that someone I trust is not what they appear to be. I trusted st. cronin and Blade specifically, and to a degree, saldana and hoops. Blade's dead, I thought it was cronin, now I'm not sure, especailly since his rr, and that leaves me saldana and hoops, who have both rr'd as well. I believe one of these three is lying.

One of the reasons I thought it was cronin was becase of the Day One to Day Three erratic behavior, but now, after his rr, and yesterday several of the things he said, I would be willing to reconsider my belief of his role.

That made me suspicious of hoopsguy, but cronin just cleared him. That leaves one - saldana.

Therefore:

Vote Saldana


-Anxiety

[st.cronin]

This is the question I have for saldana: How can the voting rules change? If he gives a satisfactory answer to that, I think he's cleared.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, did you get spooked on Day 2 when Blade came up different than me? Because I just about got whiplash from your reversal on me between Day 1 and Day 2.

I like your choices overall, although I might not have had Warlord in that list. And there seemed to be enough voices yesterday (yours included) saying that Blade was good that I backed off of him despite being extremely suspicious going into the day.

I didn't know what to make of your "scent," so I pretended to trust you, just to see what happened. Then Blade's "scent" was described in a way that made me much more comfortable, so, yeah, I did a 180 on you. Then I started to think you might be the wizard, because I thought it would be very clear when I found a henchman. Now, I don't really know. I trust you maybe 90%. The same as Barkeep and CW.

[hoopsguy]

Here are the voting patterns for Day 2. Not quite as compelling, since there are two less people in the mix and we only had a two-horse race. But two of the three late movers (the last two) have been revealed in death as wolves - really throwing off my theory from yesterday.

Day 2:
Hoopsguy - Cronin (350), Anxiety (368), mckerney (382), Schmidty (449), Blade (460), Path (471)

mckerney - Lathum (393), Tyrith (396), Barkeep (401), AlanT (417), saldana (430), Hoopsguy (462), Ardent (475)

Not voting: Dubb

[Coffee Warlord]

Does anyone have Saldana's role description post handy?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Does anyone have Saldana's role description post handy?

Saldana has not revealed his role, he just said that my role makes sense in light of HIS role. He made some other comments that confused me, though.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ah, okay. I didn't THINK he did, but your statement about him confusing you in turn confused me.

Oh, and stop sniffing my ass.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This is the question I have for saldana: How can the voting rules change? If he gives a satisfactory answer to that, I think he's cleared.

Well the D1 chart put together by Hoops suggests further reason to examine Anxiety.

[Barkeep49]

Here's the most recent post where Saldana talks about his role.

Originally Posted by saldana

sorry about not answering you when you asked barkeep, i was out all day, then watched two cars T-Bone each other on my way back to the hotel, and only got caught up with the thread at 1 minute to the deadline.

i have no problem discussing what i was told a bit more. like i have said before, i am just a plain wolf, i have no special role, and no ability to break ties, but i was told my votes could be extrememly important.

i interpreted that to mean they could have some value later, but at this time they do not, which is why i found cronin's reveal to make sense. he was saying that he would be the one to tell us when the tie breakers change, an event which i fully expect to happen at some point.

For ease of reference my response

Saldana: It sounds like our roles are very similar as my votes have quite a bit of potential as well.

I do not take this potential to have something to do with a tie breaker though and I believe cronin does not either. So saldana is now very high in my circle of trust based on what he has said.

[Coffee Warlord]

Okay. Based on that post of Saldana's you just copied, I can say I'm pretty sure he's clean. Part of his statement meshes the info I was given on my pissant role.

[Coffee Warlord]

Dola.

Which means Anxiety and Ardent are on my list of people to examine.

[st.cronin]

Well, if CW and Barkeep are willing to believe Saldana, I have no real reason not to. I'm still curious, though. And I agree Anxiety, ardent, and Tyrith are all good candidates. My votes on Anxiety right now.

[hoopsguy]

I'm still trying to figure out if Blade was telling the truth on the "chat" function - I was worried that he was part of a "Lovers/Twins" role but I would have expected two deaths last night if that was the case. Anyone have any theories on this?

He wasn't willing to change his vote on Day 1 from Tanglewood to Tyrith. I recall him trusting Tyrith at different points in the game. Both Blade and Tyrith said that they had someone who can clear them if needed. I didn't want to explore this too much yesterday with the concern over a "lose two" scenario but I think now I would love to have Tyrith give me his thoughts on Blade's play and whether there was any kind of linkage.

Depending on those answers, I think we turn up the heat a little bit on Anxiety and Schmidty. Also, so far this game AlanT is skating along without much conversation on him ...

[Barkeep49]

Let me just recap hoops last post:

"Tyrith please tell me you are a good guy. Here are a whole bunch of things to use to "convinced" me. Your wannabe friend, Hoops"

[st.cronin]

lol

[hoopsguy]

Heh - I'm amused at the interpretation, even if I don't think it is accurate.

Now that we know Blade is good I want to explore the relationship between those two. If Tyrith doesn't want to admit to anything being there, then that is fine. If he does, then it is out there for all of us to interpret instead of me trying to connect the dots on my own.

[st.cronin]

Can you explain the "lose two" scenario?

[hoopsguy]

Sure, when you have Lovers and one of them is killed the other one dies with them. The Lovers know each others role. The Lovers are not necessarily on the same team ...

[st.cronin]

ah

I'm trying to imagine what two wolfs would be pming each other about on night 0. I mean, what would they say other than "ok, I trust you."

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Heh - I'm amused at the interpretation, even if I don't think it is accurate.

Now that we know Blade is good I want to explore the relationship between those two. If Tyrith doesn't want to admit to anything being there, then that is fine. If he does, then it is out there for all of us to interpret instead of me trying to connect the dots on my own.

The problem is that you may have handed Tyrith a get out of jail free card.

-Anxiety

[Alan T]

Just got home and got caught up. I think this was a fine time for your reveal Cronin. Even though you didnt pick out any bad guys, you did clear roughly 1/3 of the player base. I still feel good about Saldana despite the misgivings you mentioned.. The people I feel pretty good about right now are Cronin, Saldana, Barkeep. I am still pretty neutral to hoops, Lathum, CW, ardent.

My three person distrust list hasnt changed any from your reveal though, and so far i don't see anything that changes my mind from it. I have pretty decent distrust for Tyrith, Anxiety and Schmidty right now. With the long weekend to discuss things, lets look really heavily at these three. I do find it interesting that Hoops is giving Tyrith an out , or some way to get out of the distrust circle. So I have a question for you Hoops, with the way you normally run things to try to build your circle of trust, why did you this time drop alot of hints for Tyrith to pick up on? This feels a little unlike what I am used to from you. Just curious at how you approached this.

[Alan T]

Dola,

I still don't really have much facts from anything so far this game, but Cronin is about as high up my trust list as there is. Anxiety is one of the people I have big problems with, so I'll join you on this vote.

VOTE ANXIETY

It is a long weekend, so I'm hoping we spend it discussing all three of the "suspicious" candidates, but right now any of the three are as good as the others for me. Lets try to make Anxiety talk a little bit about why he has been all over the place so far this game.

[Tyrith]

Blade dying makes me a sad panda.

Hoops hit a lot of it right on the head. I was the one blade was chatting with. More precisely, we were a pair of wolf brothers, and our special allowed us to send each other one message each night as an action. I had planned on role revealing last night after the day action and after a couple of hours, so the bad guys would have sent in their night actions already, but Foz's twitchy power supply kinda botched that. My role did not have any other components beyond this, so if blade was blessed, it was something extra he got. Otherwise, that is that.

[Tyrith]

And referring to cronin's post, blade was rather confused as to what we were supposed to do with night 0 PMs as well.