Werewolf 40,000: The Horus Heresy CHAOS DEFEATED; MUTANTS SURVIVE

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Path, I still like my idea for who should go in the cell tonight.

Just my opinion though, whatever its worth.

I don't think it's a bad idea either. Let's see how the day goes.

[Alan T]

dola dola... Actually if you scan greyroofoo and he ends up being bad or abnormal, it can say alot about goldeneagle who he visited the night before.

[path12]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Making my current circle of trust:
St. Cronin
Alan T

Almost there:
Saldana

Why cronin?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

dola dola... Actually if you scan greyroofoo and he ends up being bad or abnormal, it can say alot about goldeneagle who he visited the night before.

Grey would be my first choice as well.

[Mustang]

Could be a very quiet & quick day today..

[twothree]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Sorry its a long list, I'm still a bit lost.. but I would choose one of those people to scan tonight.

It's shorter than my list. I was hoping to be able to scan a few normals while keeping that information to myself. And, then once I had three normals identified reveal that information to everyone, so that a COT could be developed. Or at least that was my initial strategy. That plan failed.

[Mustang]

[GoldenEagle]

Does anyone else think what twothree is doing is a bit odd? At no point did anyone mentioning him being a seer. He was not a target for the chaos. Now, out of the gray sky, he comes out and claims he is a seer. He says he is afraid he will be killed in the morning. It is a trap.

At this point, the chaos would gladly trade 1 for 1, especially if they could nab the human seer in the process. They probably know that Anxiety has some kind of special powers. If they can get him lynched by the villagers, then they are in good shape. If Anxiety comes up clean, then twothree knows he will be lynched tomorrow.

But the real target here is the human seer. Fouts, st. cronin, and twothree have practically been practically begging for the human seer. They took out Sir Fozzie last night hoping he was it. When that plan failed, they resulted to plan B by having one of their own come forward and say he is the human seer.

Add it all up, it makes no sense that twothree is a seer.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Does anyone else think what twothree is doing is a bit odd? At no point did anyone mentioning him being a seer. He was not a target for the chaos. Now, out of the gray sky, he comes out and claims he is a seer. He says he is afraid he will be killed in the morning. It is a trap.

At this point, the chaos would gladly trade 1 for 1, especially if they could nab the human seer in the process. They probably know that Anxiety has some kind of special powers. If they can get him lynched by the villagers, then they are in good shape. If Anxiety comes up clean, then twothree knows he will be lynched tomorrow.

But the real target here is the human seer. Fouts, st. cronin, and twothree have practically been practically begging for the human seer. They took out Sir Fozzie last night hoping he was it. When that plan failed, they resulted to plan B by having one of their own come forward and say he is the human seer.

Add it all up, it makes no sense that twothree is a seer.

Its all possible, but right now I think we have to go on the assumption that he is the seer. Typically in these cases if the person he points out ends up not being a mutant or chaos then it looks really bad on them the next day.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Its all possible, but right now I think we have to go on the assumption that he is the seer. Typically in these cases if the person he points out ends up not being a mutant or chaos then it looks really bad on them the next day.

There is no logical explanation for him to come out and say I am the seer. It is nothing but bait.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

There is no logical explanation for him to come out and say I am the seer. It is nothing but bait.

Or an alternate theory might be that he is the seer, he found a bad guy, who happens to be on the same side as Greyfooroo who just happened to pay you a visit night 1 to convert you.

To this point still I have not seen a good explanation on that visit either. We know that night 1 there was no kill which usually is a sign of either deflected attack or conversion. OUr now dead bodyguard did not say anything about deflecting any attack... so what did happen on night 1? Maybe the bad guys took the night off.. I dunno!

[twothree]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Now, out of the gray sky, he comes out and claims he is a seer. He says he is afraid he will be killed in the morning. It is a trap.

Actually, this is my first post after roles were assigned via PM.

Originally Posted by twothree in post #64

As the Master of the Astronomican, I take full responsibility for allowing the Chaos Lords to infiltrate our council's grand hall. I was on my way to report the spike that registered in the Warp, but as you can see I was not fast enough.

Let me remind you that the Astronomican may be our best weapon in the fight against the remaining Chaos Lords. And, I have started an immediate investigation into the possibilities of using the Astronomican to detect the presence of the daemons among us.

[GoldenEagle]

But that tells us nothing. Why are you all the sudden coming out and telling us you are a seer? Do not say that you are afraid you wil be killed tonight or whatever.

Vote twothree

[BrianD]

It seems odd to me that GoldenEagle is coming out so strong against twothree (or for Anxiety). I can see being uneasy about his assertions, but I find it very strange that he jumped straight to voting against twothree.

As far as the big reveal is concerned, RealDeal came out with a big reveal that could easily have waited and got killed for it. Maybe twothree believes that we won't be dumb enough to make that mistake again so he is safe revealing himself. Of course he may be hiding in plain sight figuring we won't kill two (unprovoked) big reveals in a row.

I want to believe that Grey and GE are clean since the bodyguard didn't stop them, but I find GE's vehemence odd...

[twothree]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

But that tells us nothing. Why are you all the sudden coming out and telling us you are a seer? Do not say that you are afraid you wil be killed tonight or whatever.

Vote twothree

Thanks for the confirmation. Guess I scan greyroofoo tonight.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

It seems odd to me that GoldenEagle is coming out so strong against twothree (or for Anxiety). I can see being uneasy about his assertions, but I find it very strange that he jumped straight to voting against twothree.

As far as the big reveal is concerned, RealDeal came out with a big reveal that could easily have waited and got killed for it. Maybe twothree believes that we won't be dumb enough to make that mistake again so he is safe revealing himself. Of course he may be hiding in plain sight figuring we won't kill two (unprovoked) big reveals in a row.

I want to believe that Grey and GE are clean since the bodyguard didn't stop them, but I find GE's vehemence odd...

Well anxiety's lynching will tell us somewhat about twothree's accuracy here. In cases like this, its usually a pretty straight forward vote for me. Lynch the bad guy, if he ends up not being bad, lynch the person who told me he was bad.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well anxiety's lynching will tell us somewhat about twothree's accuracy here. In cases like this, its usually a pretty straight forward vote for me. Lynch the bad guy, if he ends up not being bad, lynch the person who told me he was bad.

If Anxety's has the powers he claims to has, then us lynching him would be a huge, huge mistake. Add things up here. What exactly has twothree done to gain your trust?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well anxiety's lynching will tell us somewhat about twothree's accuracy here. In cases like this, its usually a pretty straight forward vote for me. Lynch the bad guy, if he ends up not being bad, lynch the person who told me he was bad.

I agree that twothree gets strung up if Anxiety turns out to not be bad, I'm just always interested in what happens around these "sure thing" votes.

If I had to vote on the scan, I'd pick GE, though if Grey had found out that GE was bad from his visit, I would think he'd tell us.

[path12]

The further GE pushes this the further up my list he goes. Are you saying that you're the true seer, GE? Is that why you're so anti-twothree? Is it because he's pointed Anxiety out?

I don't have high hopes of getting straight answers from you on any of this at this point, unfortunately.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I agree that twothree gets strung up if Anxiety turns out to not be bad, I'm just always interested in what happens around these "sure thing" votes.

If I had to vote on the scan, I'd pick GE, though if Grey had found out that GE was bad from his visit, I would think he'd tell us.

Well I don't know if Greg and GE are good or bad. I just find it amazing the things that GE has thrown out this game without any great answer for them. I figured I would just toss this out as a possible scenerio. If it is true though, then it would tell me that Grey is more dangerous than GE as Grey has the ability to convert. Possibly every 3 days maybe? or possibly a 1 time use. So if they are both bad, we would need to elminate Grey first then GE.

Thats if they are bad.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

If Anxety's has the powers he claims to has, then us lynching him would be a huge, huge mistake. Add things up here. What exactly has twothree done to gain your trust?

twothree isnt in my trust really. He was right about Blade, but wolves have the luxury of knowing who is good where we don't. He will gain my trust if Anxiety ends up bad. If Anxiety is not bad, then it settles that.

[path12]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

If Anxety's has the powers he claims to has, then us lynching him would be a huge, huge mistake. Add things up here. What exactly has twothree done to gain your trust?

I forget what Anxiety said his powers were, have to go back and check on that.

This question can be easily turned around though -- what have you done to gain our trust? Certainly no more than twothree.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

What exactly has twothree done to gain your trust?

About as much as Anxiety has done. Though twothree didn't come out with a convenient story of "knowing" that Blade was good but forgetting to mention it. I understand the headache (hope he doesn't suffer from migraines..they suck) and busy schedule, but it just seems to convenient. Any one of the non-voters could say that they knew Blade was good but forgot to mention it.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

I forget what Anxiety said his powers were, have to go back and check on that.

This question can be easily turned around though -- what have you done to gain our trust? Certainly no more than twothree.

Anxiety said he was the soothsayer. He said he used it on Blade and found Blade telling the truth.

The only problem with his story is he sure did not let the rest of us know. He inconvienantly or convienantly didn't make it back in time to save Blade's life.

So basically its a story that may or may not be true, but his one chance to save a villager and confirm his role was wasted.

[path12]

Originally Posted by twothree #874

Having wrote that, I will not be voting for saldana tommorrow. I will be casting my vote for greyroofoo, who tried to meet with GoldenEagle and possibly tried to convert him.

Looking back to find Anxiety's post about his powers I found this from last night. twothree didn't mention Anx in here at all, but of course this was before the night actions were completed. I think it helps his story a little bit.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well I don't know if Greg and GE are good or bad. I just find it amazing the things that GE has thrown out this game without any great answer for them. I figured I would just toss this out as a possible scenerio. If it is true though, then it would tell me that Grey is more dangerous than GE as Grey has the ability to convert. Possibly every 3 days maybe? or possibly a 1 time use. So if they are both bad, we would need to elminate Grey first then GE.

Thats if they are bad.

I don't disagree with your reasoning, but if Grey did go to convert GE, why didn't the bodyguard stop him? Is there any way it would make sense to have a bodyguard that couldn't stop this?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I don't disagree with your reasoning, but if Grey did go to convert GE, why didn't the bodyguard stop him? Is there any way it would make sense to have a bodyguard that couldn't stop this?

There is alot to this game that I don't quite understand right now. perhaps its my lack of understanding about this universe, but alot still confusing in my mind.

[path12]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I don't disagree with your reasoning, but if Grey did go to convert GE, why didn't the bodyguard stop him? Is there any way it would make sense to have a bodyguard that couldn't stop this?

Sometimes there is a mechanic where BG protection is not 100%. We may have gotten a bad die roll.

[GoldenEagle]

Lets take a look at the voting history. Twothree voted for Anxiety on day 1. Did he "see" him then? On day 2, he voted for saldana. We still do not know if saldana is clean or not.

But the most damning evidence against him is that he just came out and said I am the seer. In what universe does that play make sense? How can you trust someone like that?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

Looking back to find Anxiety's post about his powers I found this from last night. twothree didn't mention Anx in here at all, but of course this was before the night actions were completed. I think it helps his story a little bit.

1 thing that makes me wonder is if he was leaning to voting for grey today, why didn't he scan Grey or GE last night instead of anxiety?

Either way though, only really possible votes I think are based on if you believe twothree or not. if you do, you vote for anxiety, if you don't you vote for twothree.

I think risk/reward though we need to vote for anxiety. If twothree is good and telling the truth, anxiety is bad and needs to die. If Anxiety is good and telling the truth, he's likely a night target soon enough before his power is useful again anyways.

Even though I don't know how much I trust Twothree just yet, I think this vote needs to be on Anxiety.

[path12]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

If Anxety's has the powers he claims to has, then us lynching him would be a huge, huge mistake. Add things up here. What exactly has twothree done to gain your trust?

Y'know the other thing about this statement is that even if Anxiety is the soothsayer, he can't use his power again for another three days. Hardly the kind of role where "lynching him would be a huge, huge mistake."

I don't know anyone's alignment for sure, I'm just a warden. But at far as who I trust more due to their actions in this game, I've got twothree with a clear lead over GE for now. If Anxiety is good, that's another story.

[Mustang]

Odd question but, out of all the people, why scan Anxiety? If you are a seer/psyker, was there something I missed that caused you to scan him or was it just a shot in the dark or?

Just curious as he has seemed to be pretty quiet.. (Of course, maybe that was your reason). I would have thought Sal/GE or Gray...

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

1 thing that makes me wonder is if he was leaning to voting for grey today, why didn't he scan Grey or GE last night instead of anxiety?

That's a very good point and I feel silly for not thinking of it.

[GoldenEagle]

How do we know that Grey was not the only one who attempted to visit me that night? Maybe the bodyguard can only stop one attempt? All I know is that Grey came to me and told me information that was 100% true. If he is the human seer, then he twothree is lying because I doubt we have more than one seer.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by path12

That's a very good point and I feel silly for not thinking of it.

*L*

I must have missed that point because I just said the same thing

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by path12

This question can be easily turned around though -- what have you done to gain our trust? Certainly no more than twothree.

I have voted for two people who were good. I also said these guys were good yet they were still voted off.

See my post above on twothree's voting record.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

How do we know that Grey was not the only one who attempted to visit me that night? Maybe the bodyguard can only stop one attempt? All I know is that Grey came to me and told me information that was 100% true. If he is the human seer, then he twothree is lying because I doubt we have more than one seer.

Blade would have told us I think if he deflected an attack or stopped an attempt. From what i recall, Blade only mentioned Grey passing through.

Also, can you reword the last part of your statement. I'm not entirely clear on what you are saying, but to me you just did what you were accusing twothree of doing which was so horribly bad.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I have voted for two people who were good. I also said these guys were good yet they were still voted off.

See my post above on twothree's voting record.

I voted for one human and one person we dont know about yet. Just because I voted for a good guy one day doesn't make me bad. Like I said before, the wolves have the luxury of knowing who is good and bad.

[path12]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I have voted for two people who were good. I also said these guys were good yet they were still voted off.

See my post above on twothree's voting record.

You never spelled anything out that you were 100%. You did say they were good but didn't go to the mat for them, IIRC when you were pressed on it you made it sound like it was more of a hunch than anything.

It is going to take some very straight talk from you to start to gain any trust from me. You've been hiding something this entire game.

[Alan T]

For whatever its worth, day 2 I assumed GE had a particular role, which is why I told Blade he had been acting shady, but sometimes there are good and bad reasons to hide things. Thats why I did not plan on voting GE that day.

Since then, all kinds of chaos has broken loose so I'm not as sure on that anymore. I still think however there is very little reason to not vote for Anxiety today.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

But the most damning evidence against him is that he just came out and said I am the seer. In what universe does that play make sense? How can you trust someone like that?

Actually, I assumed you were a seer of sorts as well. Technically I thought you were a smeller, or able to smell Chaos. Is this not so?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Since then, all kinds of chaos has broken loose so I'm not as sure on that anymore. I still think however there is very little reason to not vote for Anxiety today.

I tend to agree. Twothree's actions could be a great Chaos ploy if they were about to end the game, but it would be deadly this early.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I tend to agree. Twothree's actions could be a great Chaos ploy if they were about to end the game, but it would be deadly this early.

I think it is a brilliant move if they can actually get the real human seer to come forward.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Also, can you reword the last part of your statement. I'm not entirely clear on what you are saying, but to me you just did what you were accusing twothree of doing which was so horribly bad.

I will re-word it a bit. Grey came to me. Blade's body guards let him thorugh which must mean that Grey is good. Grey told me that Blade was clean and he was. How would Grey know that Blade was clean? Put 2 and 2 together here.

Twothree is now coming forward and saying he is the human seer. Do you really think there is more than one human seer?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I think it is a brilliant move if they can actually get the real human seer to come forward.

Sacrifice one of their own to take out the seer? I could see that as a viable strategy...

[Alan T]

Ok Scenerios:

1) Twothree is telling the truth, Anxiety is telling the truth, Goldeneagle is telling the truth. - We have seen games with multiple seers, maybe this is one of them. Maybe Anxiety is a good guy soothsayer who gives Twothree a strange reading throwing off his scan.. In this case, of the three we should still lynch Anxiety

2) Twothree is telling the truth, Anxiety is lying, GE is telling the truth - Same as before, we have seen games where there have been multiple seers. In this case we would still want to lynch Anxiety

3) Twothree is telling the truth, Anxiety is lying, GE is lying - in this case we want to lynch Anxiety

4) Twothree is lying, anxiety is lying, GE is telling the truth - If GE is the seer or knows who the seer is, this leaves us a weird case of lynching anxiety would clear twothree in some minds. Lynching twothree would clear Anxiety in some minds... Probably still best to lynch anxiety in this case as it gets one bad guy.

5) Twothree is lying, Anxiety is telling the truth, GE is telling the truth - Here, anxiety if he doesnt die at lynch would likely be a night target soon. He likely has little value for us in his role past today's reveal. Lynching him would point a finger back at twothree for the next day. I still think we should lynch Anxiety.

6) Twothree is lying, Anxiety is telling the truth, GE is lying - Once again same as #5, Anxiety's usefulness likely is gone after his reveal. Pointing the finger back to twothree the next day which might accidentally make GE clear in some minds...

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Sacrifice one of their own to take out the seer? I could see that as a viable strategy...

Here is the smoking gun...

IF Anxiety is clean (and the wolves know he is) then it is going to take the heat off of twothree. He is going to survive another day and that 1:1 ratio will come closer and closer. It is a brilliant strategy.

However, it is been sniffed out. Vote for twothree.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

IF Anxiety is clean (and the wolves know he is) then it is going to take the heat off of twothree.

How do you figure? If Anxiety is clean, then we know twothree was lying and we lynch him next. The way I see it, either Anxiety is dirty and we find that out tonight, or twothree is dirty and we get him tomorrow. I think we are assured of a Chaos kill in the next two days.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Here is the smoking gun...

IF Anxiety is clean (and the wolves know he is) then it is going to take the heat off of twothree. He is going to survive another day and that 1:1 ratio will come closer and closer. It is a brilliant strategy.

However, it is been sniffed out. Vote for twothree.

I don't understand this fully. If twothree isnt the seer, and anxiety ends up clean how is twothree not the lynch target tommorrow?

How does Anxiety showing up clean take the heat off of twothree?

[GoldenEagle]

I guess I did not think one all the way out. Still, there is overwhelming evidence that twothree is not what he says he is.