WW CXLVIII - Ancient Infection - EVIL WINS!

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Well, bhlloy already announced that he was going to scan EF. Everyone probably would have been waiting for him to reveal the results of his scan before really discussing anything. More than likely in a couple of days we will have lots of discussion since both seers will be dead.

Right. I just don't see the point of announcing that. The more I think about bhlloy's play, the more suspicious I get. Maybe he is just playing weird but something just not smell right to me.

[Zinto]

I just cannot see a scenario where bhlloy is bad. He had no pressure on him, so there was no reason to reveal when he did. To fake reveal he had to take away his teams nightkill and now he he gave us another baddie since EF has all but revealed that he is a wolf. It just doesn't make sense for him to do.

[mauchow]

As I've said multiple times I'm good either way today. I think if ef is the mummy then we got to believe that simbo is one of the transformed.

[Zinto]

We have to go with Eagle today since there is almost a hundred percent chance that he is bad, with Simbo there is not.

[bhlloy]

What's the harm in announcing it early? What the hell is wrong in a game where we get rid of some wolves first and then you start analysis from day 4 instead of day 2?

You think EF would have forgotten he was a wolf and come on and given you guys the rest of the wolves? You think anybody would have actually voted before I had revealed the result of the scan that everyone knew I was going to make?

If you honestly believe I'm bad at this point, you aren't very smart. I'll be dead tonight anyway so it doesn't make a lot of difference to me but it is slightly annoying. I think I've played a pretty damn good game to this point and I've handed you two bad guys on a plate

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

What's the harm in announcing it early? What the hell is wrong in a game where we get rid of some wolves first and then you start analysis from day 4 instead of day 2?

You think EF would have forgotten he was a wolf and come on and given you guys the rest of the wolves? You think anybody would have actually voted before I had revealed the result of the scan that everyone knew I was going to make?

If you honestly believe I'm bad at this point, you aren't very smart. I'll be dead tonight anyway so it doesn't make a lot of difference to me but it is slightly annoying. I think I've played a pretty damn good game to this point and I've handed you two bad guys on a plate

Because what are we going to analyze on day 4? Voting history? Discussion? No and no.

I am not saying that you are bad, it is just something does not add up.

[mauchow]

Bhlloy - should we have a semi coordinated plan for our scans tonight?

[Zinto]

I am leaning towards Mau telling the truth right now. It is tough for me to believe that Simbo got cultist scanned and then picked Eagle on night three, just as bhhloy did. That being said Mau is the king of fake reveals so that is something to keep in mind.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Because what are we going to analyze on day 4? Voting history? Discussion? No and no.

I am not saying that you are bad, it is just something does not add up.

OMGZ it will just be like day 1 except with LESS WOLVES. Sound fucking terrible.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Bhlloy - should we have a semi coordinated plan for our scans tonight?

I'm not sure about that. I can see an instance where the wolves might use it as a roadmap which of us to kill. I think I'd be OK with me saying who I'm planning to scan seeing as there's very little chance there is no NK tonight and you and Simbo keep your mouth shut (assuming ONE of you is the other seer) but I'd like to hear Danny's opinion on that. Assuming GE is OK with getting the villages opinion of course.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - that is probably what you meant by semi-coordinated of course, rereading your post

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am leaning towards Mau telling the truth right now. It is tough for me to believe that Simbo got cultist scanned and then picked Eagle on night three, just as bhhloy did. That being said Mau is the king of fake reveals so that is something to keep in mind.

The king of God awful fake reveals you mean. I tried to be as straight forward as possible this time as to not be mistaken. I thought I made the right move and getting the news out there. I guess I could have waited until day 4 but we'd be in same spot regardless - assuming one of us dies tonight.

[bhlloy]

Of course, even Danny isn't confirmed good at this point. So yeah, I think I will be announcing my planned scan in thread at some point. Whoever is the other seer can plan accordingly on the small chance that we both might survive, and even if I don't get to reveal the results there is some small information that can be gathered I think

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

DOLA - that is probably what you meant by semi-coordinated of course, rereading your post

Right.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

OMGZ it will just be like day 1 except with LESS WOLVES. Sound fucking terrible.

Setting aside your immaturity for a moment, voting history and discussion is how we piece together the Werewolf puzzle. These are critical elements that are needed in each game the village wins. And the way this game is spawning baddies, there is no way we can be sure if there will be less wolves or not.

[Narcizo]

Bhlloy I can see Golden's point but there's not really any point banging on about it. We could have your scenario plus more discussion and some voting history if you sat on the result yesterday. Today, I doubt it makes any difference once everyone knew you were scanning Eagle I doubt people were going to do much until you came out with the info.

Which is why I don't get mau's play as the seer. We already have a confirmed baddy to lynch today and zero risk that mau would be killed tonight. If nothing else he might have hoped that the wolves would target him for infection.

Anyway, I'm off for now

Vote nightfall

[EagleFan]

Please don't overthink this.

[LoneStarGirl]

I definitely see GE's point, as I was feeling the same way. IF you die tonight Bhhloy then we are back at day one, like you said, and day one is the least fun day of WW. But nothing we can do about it now so no need to argue.

[mauchow]

How are we back to day one? We have info. Good info.

[Passacaglia]

Villager checking in.

[CrimsonFox]

Back's been sore again so I"ve been sleeping a lot. No reason why we should be talking about bhlloy today seeing as he found a bad guy, right? That's the type of discussion for further down the road. Not right after he's found 2 badguys, especially since EF is pretty much claiming to be a badguy.

However his new sig made me laugh.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Villager checking in.

LOL great day one again. Time for Danny to vote and unvote for everyone again. Nice.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Please don't overthink this.

But what are you trying to say with this...

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Vote nightfall

Does this mean we can bitch and moan at you now?

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Bhlloy I can see Golden's point but there's not really any point banging on about it. We could have your scenario plus more discussion and some voting history if you sat on the result yesterday. Today, I doubt it makes any difference once everyone knew you were scanning Eagle I doubt people were going to do much until you came out with the info.

Which I've already acknowledged, but mau could quite easily be a wolf who was planning that fake reveal for day 2, you would never have believed me and before that mess was sorted out it would have been day 5, there would be at least 2 infected in the game and the wolves would have got two NK versus them getting zero so far and us having 1-2 more bad guys on tap just queuing up to get lynched.

It's slightly insulting to get accused of ruining the game, especially from somebody who seems incapable of putting together very good theories about it. But like you say, no sense in banging on about it. All will be revealed shortly and hopefully the village will be in a better position moving forward.

[Raiders Army]

Work is busy. I'll have to vote early tomorrow and let it stick since I probably won't be home until after 9 EDT.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Uh, does that mean you think neither mauboy or simbo is bad then JAG? I'm on the EF train for now but I hardly think we're taking a low probability guess here if we don't go with him

mau/simbo, whichever one of you is the real seer might want to take a look at JAG after that statement

JAG was almost my N1 target, he will be my N3 Target. Even if he's a Transformed, by process of elimination he could have deduced that EagleFan would be the Mummy and is trying to save him.

[Autumn]

"The figures in these murals seem to be taking one form after another. We have reason to think that this creature, what we thought a normal mummy, can infect another host with its biological essence. With the culture of Wetar dying out thousands of years ago, and the island to remote for casual traffic, it may have been without any hosts to spread itself all this time. But within a day or two it has already somehow spread a portion of itself to a handful of others. I don't think I have to describe what could happen if this being got back to the mainland. Even the slightest bit of its blood seems to be incredibly virile. Professor noticed the complete lack of wildlife when we first arrived at the island. I think we can surmise that this creature has been trying for centuries to escape.

Day 3 Vote Count

EagleFan (14) - Zinto, Danny, JAG, cougarfreak, the jackal, mauboy1, eaglefan, simbo, kwhit, crimsonfox, raiders army, narcizo, bhlloy, darth vilus

nightfall - mauboy1, narcizo

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Please don't overthink this.

I'd kind of think lynching you is the "not trying to get too cute" play. 1 of our seers is trusted, we go with his results. If I were on the outside of this mess, I'd be advocating the same thing.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm not sure about that. I can see an instance where the wolves might use it as a roadmap which of us to kill. I think I'd be OK with me saying who I'm planning to scan seeing as there's very little chance there is no NK tonight and you and Simbo keep your mouth shut (assuming ONE of you is the other seer) but I'd like to hear Danny's opinion on that. Assuming GE is OK with getting the villages opinion of course.

And btw, the infected (who do the killing) can't communicate with the Transformed (or vice versa). If I ping an infected and he decides to kill me, that's another night for you. If I get a Transformed (or the Mummy, though I'm operating under the assumption that it's EF), nothing they can do.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

JAG was almost my N1 target, he will be my N3 Target. Even if he's a Transformed, by process of elimination he could have deduced that EagleFan would be the Mummy and is trying to save him.

Do you honestly think that statement is the most suspicious thing we've seen in the past three days? I gave some reasonable explanations why I thought EF was the mummy before anyone else mentioned the possibility. Is that really a great thing to have people think if I'm Transformed and know it to be true (assuming EF wasn't infected)?

But so be it. Since I'm actually trying to figure things out, it would be nice to have additional data I don't know, but I'll just hope you're not the real seer.

[bhlloy]

assuming you are clean you should welcome the scan

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

What percentage do we have to think that EF is the mummy before we go in another direction? I am guessing about 80%.

I will go ahead and state that i am 90% sure EF is the mummy.

Originally Posted by JAG

Worst case (and by gut I think the likeliest), EF is the mummy and we should be able to take him out by night five or end of D5 depending on when the hunter kill happens. That takes down the number of bad guys we have to kill to 2 and prevents them from making any new Transformed if we lynch them. Sucks to probably lose our seers, but confirming that info for the hunter is probably worth it, otherwise we're just taking a low probability guess for today.

Actually looking back JAG, I got you and GoldenEagle mixed up here. I actually agreed with your post and thought his was highly suspicious. Maybe I'll keep a lid on where I go tonight, provided that bh announces something.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

assuming you are clean you should welcome the scan

No, I should not. What I should welcome is another scan of Evil, which would not be achieved by scanning me. Of course any Evil player would say the same thing, so take that for what it's worth.

[JAG]

bh, while we still have a cleared good out in the open, I thought of an idea that could help make sure our nurse scans don't overlap. We could have you split the player list in half using whatever method you wanted (evens/odds by signup #, alphabetical split, you pick two completely random lists, or whatever other way you can think of), then assign each nurse to a list.

Advantage: No overlapping scans, also if a nurse gets infected, the doctor will know what list of people they can try to cure without overlapping with the nurse (assuming they don't have a cure target already)

Disadvantage: The wolves know the lists they're working from as well.

Just throwing that thought out there if you think it might be useful.

[bhlloy]

I quite like that idea JAG. I'm struggling to see a downside to it, if nobody else pipes up I'll split a list based on who is still in the game in a bit

[bhlloy]

I'm planning on scanning Zinto tonight. Couple reasons in thread, plus I can't go a whole game without putting suspicion on him at least once. As I'm 98% sure I'll be the NK tonight I doubt it matters a whole hell of a lot anyway

[Zinto]

I am surprised it took you this long to be suspicious of me

[bhlloy]

lol, exactly. Didn't want you to feel left out

[Zinto]

Well, I would say there is a decent chance you will be alive tomorrow. If EF is anything but the Mummy there will be no nightkill right? Since if he is a transformed then the infected will become a transformed and there will be no nightkill(at least that is what I think happens)

[bhlloy]

Yeah, you are actually right with that. So maybe I should give it a little more thought.

I was thinking of scanning Simbo for a long time, just so we can shed some more light on that situation. That would effectively put an end to that question, as even if Simbo is the cultist he wouldn't have shown up bad in Mau's scan. I may go back in that direction depending on what people think.

[LoneStarGirl]

Vote eagle fan

[bhlloy]

OK, here is my list. I figure there is no harm in this as if somebody comes up with an earth shattering reason why this is a terrible idea, the nurses can just ignore it and nobody will get hurt

Nurse 1:

I EagleFan
IV Zinto
VIII Narcizo
X CrimsonFox
XV Simbo Klice
XVI Passacaglia
XVII Darth Vilus

XIX Cougarfreak
II LoneStarGirl
V Britrock
VII JAG
IX Danny
XI Golden Eagle
XIV Kwhit
XVIII Raiders Army
XX The Jackal
XII Mauboy

Somewhat odd/even with the caveat that I split up Mauboy and Simbo as that situation is probably getting resolved all at once

[Danny]

I dont understand your post

[bhlloy]

ugh, counting fail. try again

Nurse 1:

I EagleFan
IV Zinto
VIII Narcizo
X CrimsonFox
XV Simbo Klice
XVI Passacaglia
XVII Darth Vilus
XIX Cougarfreak

Nurse 2:
II LoneStarGirl
V Britrock
VII JAG
IX Danny
XI Golden Eagle
XIV Kwhit
XVIII Raiders Army
XX The Jackal
XII Mauboy

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Danny

I dont understand your post

how about now?

[bhlloy]

Danny - while you are around, what do you think about scanning Simbo tonight if I live long enough?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Danny - while you are around, what do you think about scanning Simbo tonight if I live long enough?

I don't think it's a good idea. We have him pretty well narrowed down already, whereas there are a lot of people we don't know very much about.

If EF comes up Transformed, I could maybe get behind it though because we'd have a bit more room for error.

[bhlloy]

I guess. It would also be good to eliminate the possibility of mau playing us like fools, because that could be damaging to the village. Lynching a seer would be pretty disastrous and would result in losing at least one scan.

If you feel you have Simbo nailed on as a wolf cool, I think a lot of other people are having second thoughts.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Danny - while you are around, what do you think about scanning Simbo tonight if I live long enough?

I'd be fine with it of course, but then (even though you're favored to be the NK) if you die it looks bad for me, I know it's a waste, and like JAG just said... I'm kind of narrowed down and the situation will eventually be handled.

I'm going with either JAG or GoldenEagle tonight (and I'll say who as close as I can to daybreak, as long as that's considered ok in terms of etiquette), maybe you should keep quiet about yours in case that draws interest to me instead.