WW CXLVIII - Ancient Infection - EVIL WINS!

[Danny]

my vote is not changing fwiw, have to go with the overwhelming percentages here

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

Since mauboy the cultist is quite useless, I'll put it out there even though I'm sure a lot of you will relish tearing this down. There's a situation where I'd still be for a mauboy lynch today but unless it comes up I won't mention it.

I think that there's actually a very good chance Danny would be a high priority infection target- As a former lover, he now has to die to win so the Transformed know his better bet for that to happen is to be on their side, and he'll willingly play ball. As an original confirmed good guy from a now-confirmed good guy, he's already as close to a trusted villager as there is left.

But didn't you vote for mauboy earlier?

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Danny

This is a dumb statement. The first part sure, I can give you that.

Well, now that bh is gone and I'm on borrowed time, there probably won't be any investigations on you, so I can see where an actual result casting suspicion on you would be unlikely. But if you're infected and you come up for a lynch, you can just say "I don't want the cure, lynch me"... Whereas as a villager you have to rely on an infected deciding to go for you over hunting for roles, which is what I think their inclination will be for the time being.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

But didn't you vote for mauboy earlier?

Pure reaction vote to his fake reveal, before I pieced it together.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

Well, now that bh is gone and I'm on borrowed time, there probably won't be any investigations on you, so I can see where an actual result casting suspicion on you would be unlikely. But if you're infected and you come up for a lynch, you can just say "I don't want the cure, lynch me"... Whereas as a villager you have to rely on an infected deciding to go for you over hunting for roles, which is what I think their inclination will be for the time being.



Pure reaction vote to his fake reveal, before I pieced it together.

But why would the fact that I would prefer to die be a motivating factor for the current wolves to convert me? And I am going to play for my side whatever that is. Yes, I need to die to win, but I also need my side to win and there's plenty of time for me to die.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Danny

But why would the fact that I would prefer to die be a motivating factor for the current wolves to convert me? And I am going to play for my side whatever that is. Yes, I need to die to win, but I also need my side to win and there's plenty of time for me to die.

Their motivating factor is that you've been scanned good, and that your motivating factor to die can now be achieved one of three ways- a mislynch of villager you, a lynch of infected you, or a kill by an infected. The third is unlikely, and the first two both help the bad side. So all your motivations are therefore beneficial to the scum team.

Also, since mau could be thinking down this avenue as well- he "scanned" you good to cover himself and make things look worse for me and/or to cover you because he believes there's a good chance you're now infected.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

Their motivating factor is that you've been scanned good, and that your motivating factor to die can now be achieved one of three ways- a mislynch of villager you, a lynch of infected you, or a kill by an infected. The third is unlikely, and the first two both help the bad side. So all your motivations are therefore beneficial to the scum team.

Also, since mau could be thinking down this avenue as well- he "scanned" you good to cover himself and make things look worse for me and/or to cover you because he believes there's a good chance you're now infected.

And I should point out- lynch of an infected you is beneficiary to them now because there are (very likely) multiple infected people to perform a kill, and each day the Transformed survive is beneficial for them and their team.

[EagleFan]

CoT
I EagleFan - Highly Trusted



Other...
II LoneStarGirl
IV Zinto
V Britrock
VII JAG
VIII Narcizo
IX Danny
X CrimsonFox
XI Golden Eagle
XII Mauboy
XIV Kwhit
XV Simbo Klice
XVI Passacaglia
XVII Darth Vilus
XVIII Raiders Army
XIX Cougarfreak
XX The Jackal

[EagleFan]

For what it's worth...

I would recommend night killing either Pass, CF (pick one), Narc or GE for night 4.

For the infection I would go either Danny, LSG, DV, RA or JAG.

Though keep an eye on Z, I think he has a special role.

For today's lynch maybe we should look at either Brit, Jackal, Danny, EF or KWhit.


Thoughts?

Or we go with my original idea of looking at those day one voters that lynched that poor helpless villager.

[britrock88]

Obviously this has less weight after the vote results, but the reason I withheld a vote was that EF's reaction to being targeted was (in my mind) pretty clearly the nonchalance that someone immune to lynch (i.e., the mummy) would have. For today, I think I'll look back to the beginning of yesterday to see what and who got the ball rolling for an EF lynch, especially after his retort.

[britrock88]

Vote Zinto

As soon as bhlloy revealed the scan, Zinto IMMEDIATELY voted EagleFan. When EagleFan responded, "Kill me or cure me," Zinto pressed for EagleFan's lynching, stating that he would have an NK before an opportunity to cure. (He was later corrected on this.) But between that hypervigilance and a possibly deliberate misrepresentation of the rules in order to encourage the thwarted mummy lynch (plus a little more pinging from earlier in the game), that's where my vote lands.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

For what it's worth...

I would recommend night killing either Pass, CF (pick one), Narc or GE for night 4.

For the infection I would go either Danny, LSG, DV, RA or JAG.

Though keep an eye on Z, I think he has a special role.

For today's lynch maybe we should look at either Brit, Jackal, Danny, EF or KWhit.


Thoughts?

Or we go with my original idea of looking at those day one voters that lynched that poor helpless villager.

So, there's something to be gleaned from this. I doubt the Mummy would put Transformed onto the NK list, since it would mean no NK and a simple switchout. I'm not ready to vote yet, but a couple of those names on the infect list are high on my radar.

[Danny]

As a villager youd be better off just ignoring everything ef says and not actually try to read anything. In fact, i just skip pver his posts without even reading them

[Narcizo]

Ok. Looks like you guys were right about Eagle - I didn't really have much time to analyze things yesterday but looks like some of you are more on the ball than I was. Still, knowing that Eagle is the Mummy helps us out a lot and he'll be undead meat in a couple of days so that's still a good result.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Danny

As a villager youd be better off just ignoring everything ef says and not actually try to read anything. In fact, i just skip pver his posts without even reading them

Though he's doing his best to keep us off his scent, he's also trying to quarterback the scum team as well, which he can't do outside the thread.

[Narcizo]

Day Two

#141 05:39 Raiders votes CrimsonFox (1)
#145 07:21 Jackal votes Zinto (1)
#149 09:18 Britrock votes Danny (1)
#150 09:27 Narcizo votes Britrock (1)
#154 09:42 JAG votes Passacaglia (1)
#155 09:45 Bhlloy votes Chief Rum (1)
#178 12:02 EagleFan votes CrimsonFox (2)
#192 12:37 Bhlloy unvotes Chief Rum (0)
#192 12:37 Bhlloy votes Julio (1)

#214 13:14 Zinto votes Narcizo (1)
#228 13:52 CrimsonFox votes Eaglefan (1)
#240 14:09 Darth Vilus votes Zinto (2)
#242 14:23 mauboy votes Darth Vilus (1)
#248 14:59 Chief Rum votes CrimsonFox (3)
#255 15:09 Julio votes Narcizo (2)
#258 15:26 CrimsonFox unvotes EagleFan (0)
#258 15:26 Crimson votes Narcizo (3)

#260 15:41 Simbo Klice votes Danny (2)
#261 15:41 Narcizo unvotes Britrock (0)
#261 15:41 Narcizo votes Julio (2)
#331 18:40 Passacaglia votes Cougarfreak (1)
#354 19:14 Danny votes KWhit (1)
#367 19:35 CrimsonFox unvotes Narcizo (2)
#367 19:35 CrimsonFox votes KWhit (2)
#368 19:44 Mau unvotes Darth Vilus (0)
#368 19:44 Mau votes Julio (3)
#370 19:49 LoneStarGirl votes Zinto (3)

#373 19:15 Cougarfreak votes Danny (3)
#376 19:37 Zinto votes Julio (4)
#380 20:39 JAG unvotes Pass (0)
#384 20:42 GoldenEagle votes Zinto (4)
#389 20:44 Crimson unvotes KWhit (1)

#394 20:47 Zinto unvotes Julio (3)
#406 20:51 CrimsonFox votes Julio (4)
#408 20:52 Zinto votes Julio (5)
#414 20:56 Danny unvotes KWhit (0)
#414 20:56 Danny votes Julio (6)
#428 21:00 Julio unvotes Narcizo (1)
#428 21:00 Julio votes Danny (4)
#429 21:00 JAG votes Crimson (4)


Vote Count

CrimsonFox (4) - raiders army (141), EagleFan (178), Chief Rum (248), JAG (429)
Zinto (4) - the jackal (145), Darth Vilus (240), Lonestargirl (370), GoldenEagle (384)
Danny (4) - Britrock88 (149), Simbo Klice (260), Cougarfreak (373), Julio (428)
Julio Riddols (6) - Bhlloy (192), Narcizo (261), mauboy1 (368), CrimsonFox (406), Zinto (408), Danny (414)
Cougarfreak (1) - passacaglia (331)

No Vote - Kwhit

[Narcizo]

Scans

Bhlloy:
Danny
Chief Rum (evil)
EagleFan (evil)

Mauboy:
Pass
Narcizo
Simbo (evil)
Danny

Simbo Klice:
Bhlloy
Pass
EagleFan (evil)
GoldenEagle

So to sum up we know that Pass and Danny aren't the transformers but either could be infected. Mau is either the professor or the cultist. Hopefully the doctor tried to cure Simbo last night so Simbo is either the professor or a transformer. Going to go back and read Eagle's posts and read both what Simbo and mau had to say yesterday. If I get the time.

[Raiders Army]

I'm going to be out for the rest of today and won't make it back before lynch (if at all today).

VOTE MAUBOY1

I'm underthinking this, I know.

[Narcizo]

So I doubt Crimson was starting evil. Don't see Eagle dropping the second vote on a baddy on day one in this ruleset. Should have put Danny and Pass in blue on day one because they both must have been villagers on day one. In fact I'll redo it all.

Simbo seems to be talking the most sense at the moment while mau's decision of scan is baffling. However having been around for the Red Death II game it sort of rings true to mau's play as a villager (no offence mau )

What I come back to is the fact that several people noted Eagle was pushing for his own lynch. Why would he do that if Simbo was the seer - it makes no sense. I wish I had listened to you guys yesterday because if Simbo is transformed then lynching him yesterday would have been fantastic. The infected person would have been upgraded to the transformer and there would be no infection last night and no night kills. I'm sorry I didn't realise that until reading the rules again. So Eagle's play doesn't make any sense if Simbo is the seer while it makes perfect sense if Simbo is transformed.

Having said that I'm still not sure that voting Simbo is the way forward. Still feels like we might want the infecteds sort things out for us. Unfortunately, as has been pointed out, we don't have an awful lot to go off of in narrowing down the village.

[Narcizo]

Day One

#141 05:39 Raiders votes CrimsonFox (1)
#145 07:21 Jackal votes Zinto (1)
#149 09:18 Britrock votes Danny (1)
#150 09:27 Narcizo votes Britrock (1)
#154 09:42 JAG votes Passacaglia (1)
#155 09:45 Bhlloy votes Chief Rum (1)
#178 12:02 EagleFan votes CrimsonFox (2)
#192 12:37 Bhlloy unvotes Chief Rum (0)
#192 12:37 Bhlloy votes Julio (1)

#214 13:14 Zinto votes Narcizo (1)
#228 13:52 CrimsonFox votes Eaglefan (1)
#240 14:09 Darth Vilus votes Zinto (2)
#242 14:23 mauboy votes Darth Vilus (1)
#248 14:59 Chief Rum votes CrimsonFox (3)
#255 15:09 Julio votes Narcizo (2)
#258 15:26 CrimsonFox unvotes EagleFan (0)
#258 15:26 Crimson votes Narcizo (3)

#260 15:41 Simbo Klice votes Danny (2)
#261 15:41 Narcizo unvotes Britrock (0)
#261 15:41 Narcizo votes Julio (2)
#331 18:40 Passacaglia votes Cougarfreak (1)
#354 19:14 Danny votes KWhit (1)
#367 19:35 CrimsonFox unvotes Narcizo (2)
#367 19:35 CrimsonFox votes KWhit (2)
#368 19:44 Mau unvotes Darth Vilus (0)
#368 19:44 Mau votes Julio (3)
#370 19:49 LoneStarGirl votes Zinto (3)

#373 19:15 Cougarfreak votes Danny (3)
#376 19:37 Zinto votes Julio (4)
#380 20:39 JAG unvotes Pass (0)
#384 20:42 GoldenEagle votes Zinto (4)
#389 20:44 Crimson unvotes KWhit (1)

#394 20:47 Zinto unvotes Julio (3)
#406 20:51 CrimsonFox votes Julio (4)
#408 20:52 Zinto votes Julio (5)
#414 20:56 Danny unvotes KWhit (0)
#414 20:56 Danny votes Julio (6)
#428 21:00 Julio unvotes Narcizo (1)
#428 21:00 Julio votes Danny (4)
#429 21:00 JAG votes Crimson (4)


Vote Count

CrimsonFox (4) - raiders army (141), EagleFan (178), Chief Rum (248), JAG (429)
Zinto (4) - the jackal (145), Darth Vilus (240), Lonestargirl (370), GoldenEagle (384)
Danny (4) - Britrock88 (149), Simbo Klice (260), Cougarfreak (373), Julio (428)
Julio Riddols (6) - Bhlloy (192), Narcizo (261), mauboy1 (368), CrimsonFox (406), Zinto (408), Danny (414)
Cougarfreak (1) - passacaglia (331)

No Vote - Kwhit

[Narcizo]

Anyway I've got to go for now. Haven't really had the chance to do much more than read through Eagle's posts and try to come to terms with yesterday's events. Logic says that we should leave mau and Simbo - my gut says that Simbo is scummy (as he quaintly puts it). Last game, logic paid off for me so I'm going to look at other people.

At the moment LSG and Zinto are the alternative candidates. I'm tempted to vote Raiders for the sheer bat-shit insanity of voting mauboy but for now I'm a gonna

Vote Britrock

His logic for voting Zinto is pretty much based on Simbo being bad. Eagle would only want people to vote him if he was trying to save Simbo. And if he follows that theory he should really vote Simbo.

[Simbo Klice]

Not sure if I'll be back on before I hit the hay, so to further state the lack of necessity for a vote my way or mauboy's, when EF gets Mummy Hunter'ed Night 5, he'll probably Brutal kill the last seer on the way out. I'd prefer to have one last crack at a scan before I go, and it'll save one of you guys from that fate.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Yes. The statement was already made.

Thanks for reminding me. I think I'll call it a night rather than listen to people berate yet another bad move from me. Too soon to reveal. Bad scan (this one I will admit in hindsight.. I was panicking in the final minutes on who to choose and no longer used logic to decide).

I'll see you guys tomorrow.

Sorry if I came off harsh there (unless you're the cultist).

[mauchow]

This is honestly ridiculous but you guys go ahead and ignore my scans. If I had to guess the doctor got the results back on simbo as not cleared but doesn't want to out themselves yet. If the doctor did get that message is it worth knowing this info for Lynch tonight?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Does that mean that you would see a compelling reason to at a later time? If so, why later but not now?

Right now I'm not sure who to believe. I'm hopeful the infected(s) that have to make the night kill are also uncertain and may screw up or even refuse to kill one and give us additional scans to work with.

[The Jackal]

Doctors aren't informed if their cure was successful, mau, so the remaining doctor definitely shouldn't reveal, as they are an important weapon against the infected later in the game, especially if we've lost both seers

[mauchow]

My understanding of the rules is that the doctor will know the results since the other doctor is dead.

[mauchow]

The nurses scans of the infected I'm talking.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

Vote Kimbo

Does not compute.

[Autumn]

Day 4 vote count

simbo klice - mauboy
LoneStarGirl - JAG
zinto - britrock88
mauboy1 - raiders army
britrock - narcizo

[mauchow]

I guess I understand peoples hesitation now. If you vote simbo and he turns out to be the seer anybody who voted him would look very bad especially if it was a near 50-50 split. I feel bad now that I was unable to create a solid foundation for people to believe me so we could keep moving in the right direction.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Does not compute.

I knew switching the letters would pay off somewhere down the line.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I guess I understand peoples hesitation now. If you vote simbo and he turns out to be the seer anybody who voted him would look very bad especially if it was a near 50-50 split. I feel bad now that I was unable to create a solid foundation for people to believe me so we could keep moving in the right direction.

Yeah, yeah... About time for the sympathy play. Let's just agree that the infected and/or the Mummy are probably going to sort this out, and if by some crazy reason we're both alive on Day 6, we'll have a loser-leaves-town wrestling match in a tub of Jell-O.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

The nurses scans of the infected I'm talking.

Ah I see. I suppose the doctor via the nurses acts as another seer, just for infected. It does benefit the doctor to cure the infected rather than reveal them, though, as we need to take down the transformed. And if they reveal then we lose this ability, even if they can't be sure that their cures worked or not.

It does make sense that one of the nurses would have scanned Simbo, though

[The Jackal]

But then there's the issue of infected turning in to transformed if one of them gets lynched, I guess

[The Jackal]

EF going down will help this situation a lot because we'll know that the transformed can't be replaced. So in my opinion the doctor should definitely not reveal, as he could be vital to winning (either by revealing nurse scanned infected or curing them) once the Mummy is gone and we hopefully take down some transformed

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

This is honestly ridiculous but you guys go ahead and ignore my scans. If I had to guess the doctor got the results back on simbo as not cleared but doesn't want to out themselves yet. If the doctor did get that message is it worth knowing this info for Lynch tonight?

He's basically just trying to get other roles to step out or waste their abilities now. I have maintained that I'm Professor Davis all along, and am therefore immune to being infected. Since either I'm lying or he is, and he picked up his "result" on Night 2, and CR was the N1 infection, he's pretty much saying that I was infected on Night 2. I'm betting that a Nurse has checked me out, and if I was infected they'd certainly have stepped up and ended this madness by now. This is just role fishing, plain and simple. All he can really do anymore. At least I can understand the argument that I'd have started as a Transformed.

[mauchow]

My point has always been that you were never infected based on your fake reveal. I voted ef because I knew there was no concrete evidence that we could say with certainty that either of you weren't just infected. Your reveal told me that you were either a mummy or transformed and a nurses scan to confirm you weren't infected would end that thought completely. You're the Guy we should Lynch tonight but your fake reveal put things into a standstill because of my lack of convincing.

[mauchow]

I meant to add that I voted ef before your reveal at which point you revealed so then at that point I was extremely confident you were a transformed or mummy. Now that we know ef if mummy we know you're transformed.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I meant to add that I voted ef before your reveal at which point you revealed so then at that point I was extremely confident you were a transformed or mummy. Now that we know ef if mummy we know you're transformed.

So why are you trying to get Doctors and Nurses, who have no ability to find or cure Transformed, to come out then? You're overplaying your position.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

My point has always been that you were never infected based on your fake reveal. I voted ef because I knew there was no concrete evidence that we could say with certainty that either of you weren't just infected. Your reveal told me that you were either a mummy or transformed and a nurses scan to confirm you weren't infected would end that thought completely. You're the Guy we should Lynch tonight but your fake reveal put things into a standstill because of my lack of convincing.

I'm not sure I understand, why would an infected not fake reveal in that position?

[Simbo Klice]

Alright, unfortunately it's bedtime. I'll make every effort to get back on before Nightfall and see what's going on then. Hoping some discussion extends beyond myself and mauboy today.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm not sure I understand, why would an infected not fake reveal in that position?

Because they can be saved. If they are targeted as a true infected id think they'd say they're infected would they not? Much like we saw with CR. Ef didn't need to create any drama as he knew he couldn't be lynched and it would have been way overboard to fake reveal when I came out and called out simbo who in turn fake revealed. He would have been drawing bad attantion to a fellow wolf possibly.

[mauchow]

Maybe I'm thinking too simple minded I'm not sure but its frustrating nonetheless.

[mauchow]

I love my phone now.. when I start typing a forum users name it knows who I'm typing about after a few letters. LOL

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Logic says that we should leave mau and Simbo - my gut says that Simbo is scummy (as he quaintly puts it).

At the moment LSG and Zinto are the alternative candidates.

Vote Britrock

His logic for voting Zinto is pretty much based on Simbo being bad. Eagle would only want people to vote him if he was trying to save Simbo. And if he follows that theory he should really vote Simbo.

So despite the fact that I follow your logic to a T, I deserve a vote?

[Zinto]

Assuming that the doctor did the right play and cured simbo last night then if he is a wolf then he has to be a transformed. Knowing this we should leave him alone until eagle is take care of so that we can be down to one transformed

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Okay, who is ready to analyze the game? How can I help?

I feel like I've been totally out of it this game. It sucks to have to read three or f our pages in one sitting nd truly understand what's being said in a game this elaborate. So even though I have a feeling this comment is laced with sarcasm, I am ready to sift through these posts and analyze away.

[GoldenEagle]

Britrock is playing in this game? Damn, he has been under the radar.

[cougarfreak]

I'm just checking in, I've got training to do until 7 or so tonight, so I won't be around until after then. I'll try and sift through this mind boggling stuff then.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Assuming that the doctor did the right play and cured simbo last night then if he is a wolf then he has to be a transformed. Knowing this we should leave him alone until eagle is take care of so that we can be down to one transformed

I missed that the doctor was going to scan simbo to eliminate him as an infected. So if the doctor scanned him, then he'd be cured and today would not be claiming to the seer since he'd be on the good side and Drs can't be infected anyway. And below he's still claiming it. So this talk of infectedness is invalid right? Or rather that it is definite he is not infected and this kinda proves that.

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

He's basically just trying to get other roles to step out or waste their abilities now. I have maintained that I'm Professor Davis all along, and am therefore immune to being infected. Since either I'm lying or he is, and he picked up his "result" on Night 2, and CR was the N1 infection, he's pretty much saying that I was infected on Night 2. I'm betting that a Nurse has checked me out, and if I was infected they'd certainly have stepped up and ended this madness by now. This is just role fishing, plain and simple. All he can really do anymore. At least I can understand the argument that I'd have started as a Transformed.

Yes I think that's what I'm saying, except that nurses can't end the madness by curing infected. Only doctors. They themselves don't even know the results I thought. They'd have to out themselves too. Er wait. they don't know the results so they wouldn't know. So why would a nurse be able to "end the madness" at all?