2018 MLB Thread

[stevew]

You think we got jobbed on Cole? Nah, watch this mothafuckas!

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by cartman

Pirates are going full rebuild. They traded McCutchen to the Giants.

offs, now I have to hate him. That sucks for me. I always hoped he show up in blue.

[JPhillips]

With all the teams looking to stay under the penalty, there are going to be some good free agent bargains. I'd love the Reds to throw some of that 50 million windfall into a couple of free agents.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I've gotta say, with what little they had to work with, the front office for the Giants have done a pretty great job of improving the team without blowing up the budget or the farm system.

[Hammer755]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I've gotta say, with what little they had to work with, the front office for the Giants have done a pretty great job of improving the team without blowing up the budget or the farm system.

Longoria & McCutchen are upgrades for the Giants to be sure, but adding a couple of clearly-regressing players feels a bit like rearranging the deck chairs.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I believe both are projected for a combined 6 wins this season, and are replacing players who had literally negative WAR last year. They are legit upgrades, even if the players are not what they once were.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I believe both are projected for a combined 6 wins this season, and are replacing players who had literally negative WAR last year. They are legit upgrades, even if the players are not what they once were.

So...70 wins incoming?

[Vince, Pt. II]

I'm not saying they're world beaters, but literally (real literally, not stupid internet chicanery literally) every single player on the team underperformed their ZiPs projections last year, most significantly so. Plus they were missing their best SP for half the season. There's reason to believe all of the following things:

• The talent on the team is (significantly) better than their record last season would indicate.
• There have been significant improvements to multiple positions over the players that you would not expect to outperform 2017's output.
• The best pitcher on the team is unlikely to have another multiple month injury.
• With the money that came back in the McCutchen deal, the Giants could still go out and get a defense-first CF and put Cutch in LF.

Currently, as constructed, the Giants project 22.9 WAR out of their position players, compared to 14 last year. If they simply play as expected, that's 9 extra wins. That puts them firmly in the mid-to-high 70's for win total*, not including any improvement out of the pitching staff or bench. With any kind of breakout performance, be it by a rookie (Stephen Duggar, CF prospect?), a resurgent Johnny Cueto, a full season of Madison Bumgarner, or simply better outfield defense helping keep Samardzija's flyballs outs rather than hits, they're in the conversation for a playoff spot.

Do I believe all that is going to happen? Absolutely not. But the front office is doing everything they can to take one last stab at this thing before they really need to blow it all up. And when your other option is to trade away players that are good-not-great, old, or coming off injury plagued years, you're not going to get much return for them anyway.

I think they've done the absolute best they could with the hand they had. Considering they dealt that hand to themselves...maybe there's cause for worry. But they're trying.


*Fudging a little here by using their Pythagorean Record because holy shit 2017 was awful. Also, Grant Brisbee gets credit for most of the work on those WAR numbers.

[Chief Rum]

I think the NL has too many top end teams for the Giants to nab a playoff spot but I agree they aren't as bad as they were last year, and they do have more talent now. They'll be in it into September unless injuries take a toll again.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Eh, when you look at it you've got three tiers:

1. Top: Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals
2. Tweener: Cardinals
3. Wild Card Contenders: Mets, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, Phillies (?)

I think the Cardinals are obviously better than the rest of the pack, but also a step below the crazy talent level of the top three. The Pirates would have been in that wild card contender tier, but they're obviously punting.

I don't think it's too much of a stretch to see the Giants challenging that bottom tier.

[AENeuman]

Yep, agree with most here. Best thing is they are not tied down to too many awful contracts after next year. This was a surprising good attempt at "going for one last shot" without giving up (limited) prospects and over signing. ]

Or, in other words, they did a great job of making the season ticket holders hopeful. Which for a nearly 100 loss team is pretty admirable.

But playoffs? nope

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

Yep, agree with most here. Best thing is they are not tied down to too many awful contracts after next year. This was a surprising good attempt at "going for one last shot" without giving up (limited) prospects and over signing. ]

Or, in other words, they did a great job of making the season ticket holders hopeful. Which for a nearly 100 loss team is pretty admirable.

But playoffs? nope

There's always a team that overperforms. Last year it was the Diamondbacks, maybe it'll be the Giants this year. I mean, they've overperformed with an aging roster and heroic Bumgarner playoff performances before.

[dubb93]

I’m a little concerned that we could be heading for a nasty work stoppage after 2021 if things don’t correct themselves a bit. Too many teams are unwilling to spend and the big spenders now are wanting to stay under the luxury threshold due to harsh penalties. The situation has resulted in too many above average to good players without work.

Something will either need to give or I think it gets ugly.

[Atocep]

The only way to really correct it is to reduce the years of club control. Every front office is analytics based in some way now and they're just not willing to spend big money on average to above average talent that's likely headed into their decline years. You just don't see guys hitting free agency in their prime very often any more.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The only way to really correct it is to reduce the years of club control. Every front office is analytics based in some way now and they're just not willing to spend big money on average to above average talent that's likely headed into their decline years. You just don't see guys hitting free agency in their prime very often any more.

Which is exactly what I was thinking. I think we have a major fight over player control ahead of us.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

You just don't see guys hitting free agency in their prime very often any more.

Because players would rather sacrifice those first couple of years of free agency so they are only making about 40% of their actual worth instead of maybe 10% in some of those early years.

Bloodbath coming. What would teams want in return for losing a couple years of dirt cheap labor? Some kind of max salary? Or do you take the opposite approach...blow up the pay structure in those early years but actually allow teams to control players longer (at a higher salary)?

[lungs]

Brewers just gave up a haul for Christian Yelich.

[JPhillips]

And got Lorenzo Cain for 5/80

Damn

[Vince, Pt. II]

The Brewers just got a helluva lot better, nice day for them.

[lungs]

I'm hearing Domingo Santana will be on the move for some pitching to top things off.

[JeeberD]

It's frustrating to think that we gave him and Phillips up for fucking Fiers and Gomez. At least Fiers did nicely when the entire rotation was injured in July, and threw that no hitter in 2015. But Gomez...

[Chief Rum]

I think it worked out for you just fine.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

It's frustrating to think that we gave him and Phillips up for fucking Fiers and Gomez. At least Fiers did nicely when the entire rotation was injured in July, and threw that no hitter in 2015. But Gomez...

Don't forget Josh Hader

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I think it worked out for you just fine.

One isn't enough!

Originally Posted by lungs

Don't forget Josh Hader

Dammit...yeah, Hader, too. You're trying to be Astros 2.0, with Villar and Nottingham on the club, too.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Dammit...yeah, Hader, too. You're trying to be Astros 2.0, with Villar and Nottingham on the club, too.

Conspiracy theory: Milwaukee GM David Stearns worked for the Astros when the Gomez/Fiers deal went down.

[Logan]

Chief Wahoo logo will be gone for the 2019 season. So be sure to buy up all that racist shit already in stock before it's gone forever!

[MrBug708]

Is there going to be a new logo? Seems like the name Indians should be gone as well?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Is there going to be a new logo? Seems like the name Indians should be gone as well?

Could go with a lovely snowflake, would be fitting.

[larrymcg421]

Are the snowflakes the ones bothered by racist imagery or the ones whose lives will be so ruined by the removal of racist imagery? Help me out here.

[Logan]

I never had a particularly strong Chief Wahoo take, but this picture always felt like the argument-ender pic.twitter.com/P1KpiaVNQm

— Ben Axelrod (@BenAxelrod) January 29, 2018

[Neuqua]

I wonder how long until the Blackhawks make a change.

[BYU 14]

Actually kind of would be cool to bring back the Spiders nickname.

Of all the mascots in sports that fall into ethnic territory, Indians is really not that offensive. It was never really used in a derogatory fashion in society like Redskins, or even Chief(s) back in the day. I can see how Native Americans would get upset with the logo though, since it is a caricature.

In the end though, not for me to decide what should or should not offend someone who has a different perspective than me.

[stevew]

They should definitely change their name to the IndianSpiders and have a racist sambo faced arachnid as their logo.

[JeeberD]

The Rangers are going for it all! They just signed Bartolo Colon to a (minor league) contract!

[molson]

I'm enjoying Scott Boras and Tony Clark melting down over teams learning not to offer stupid contracts in free agency.

Players have always tried to protect the veteran free agent at the expense of younger players, and that's kind of blown up in their face now that owners are figuring out not to pay for past performance. Younger players are underpaid, but the CBA doesn't really allow them to be paid what they're worth.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm enjoying Scott Boras and Tony Clark melting down over teams learning not to offer stupid contracts in free agency.

Players have always tried to protect the veteran free agent at the expense of younger players, and that's kind of blown up in their face now that owners are figuring out not to pay for past performance. Younger players are underpaid, but the CBA doesn't really allow them to be paid what they're worth.

Boras hasn't adapted the modern front office. Trying sell statistical analysts on the virtues of Eric Hosmer's leadership is a waste of time. 15 years ago he would have gotten whatever Boras asked for. This year he's probably back the Royals at a reasonable price.

[Toddzilla]

Cubs finally light up the hot stove and sign Yu Darvish.

6-years, $126 mil, can escalate to $150 with incentives, Darvish has an opt-out after 2 years.

[claphamsa]

i truly deeply hate optouts, sign or dont, dont be wishy washy!

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Cubs finally light up the hot stove and sign Yu Darvish.

6-years, $126 mil, can escalate to $150 with incentives, Darvish has an opt-out after 2 years.

And Dodger fans let out a collective sigh of relief. I don't think I'll ever forget and that stink will never go.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

And Dodger fans let out a collective sigh of relief. I don't think I'll ever forget and that stink will never go.

Rob Parker has been sitting in on the lunch time radio show on the Dodgers local station and has been beating the drum for Darvish, and telling Dodger fans they are massively overreacting. He puts the Series loss on Kershaw.

I'm an Angels fan, so I don't have a real dog in the fight. I think Parker is a jackass and completely agree with you. One terrible outing in the Series is disheartening but not grounds for the negativity Yu has gotten. Two absolutely terrible outings? Including Game 7? Sorry, that's way beyond terrible. Dodgers are entirely right to not risk throwing such a big contract at a guy who did precisely the worst he could have done when they needed him the most.

I will say, though, that Kershaw also has to find some sack in the playoffs. If Darvish wasn't around, he would be getting a lot more sideways glances. The supposed GOAT shouldn't stop being that when the calendar rolls to October.

[dubb93]

I don't understand how the Dodgers coaching staff never realized he was tipping his pitches. I would expect my coaching staff to be on top of that kind of stuff. Before he was tipping those pitches he had two pretty good playoff starts. Seems like a pretty club friendly contract to me as well, especially if Darvish opts out after two seasons. 21 million per is below the level he has produced in the past.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Rob Parker has been sitting in on the lunch time radio show on the Dodgers local station and has been beating the drum for Darvish, and telling Dodger fans they are massively overreacting. He puts the Series loss on Kershaw.

I'm an Angels fan, so I don't have a real dog in the fight. I think Parker is a jackass and completely agree with you. One terrible outing in the Series is disheartening but not grounds for the negativity Yu has gotten. Two absolutely terrible outings? Including Game 7? Sorry, that's way beyond terrible. Dodgers are entirely right to not risk throwing such a big contract at a guy who did precisely the worst he could have done when they needed him the most.

I will say, though, that Kershaw also has to find some sack in the playoffs. If Darvish wasn't around, he would be getting a lot more sideways glances. The supposed GOAT shouldn't stop being that when the calendar rolls to October.

Agree with you 100%

Originally Posted by dubb93

I don't understand how the Dodgers coaching staff never realized he was tipping his pitches. I would expect my coaching staff to be on top of that kind of stuff. Before he was tipping those pitches he had two pretty good playoff starts. Seems like a pretty club friendly contract to me as well, especially if Darvish opts out after two seasons. 21 million per is below the level he has produced in the past.

The funny thing is the staff has brought other pitchers in and done this exact thing when they were tipping. So you're right. Seems odd, especially how he had been dominating late and in the playoffs.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Esteban Loaiza, former MLB pitcher, arrested with over 20 kilograms of drugs

[miami_fan]

Mr. Loria did not meet the terms of the contract with Miami-Dade County and the City of Miami. He owes this community five percent of the profits from the $1.2 billion sale of the Miami Marlins. We will see Mr. Loria in court.

— Carlos A. Gimenez (@MayorGimenez) February 17, 2018

[Atocep]

So Loria claims he took a loss on the sale of a team he acquired for $158 million and sold for $1.2 billion.

[jbergey22]

Its so hard for a billionaire just to give up 60 million to a community that made him a billionaire in the first place. Greedy POS. Sounds like he actually only paid 30 million to purchase the Marlins and not the 158 million as reported. Some interesting accounting to claim a loss on that sale.

[BishopMVP]

I hate his overall team building approach, but good on Dave Dombrowski for holding the line and getting JD Martinez at 5/$110m. Front loaded, and with opt outs after 2 years, but even if it's just a 2/$50m deal that means he played well, and if things do go wrong it's down to 3/$60m instead of some long term or $30m+ per year albatross.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Atocep

So Loria claims he took a loss on the sale of a team he acquired for $158 million and sold for $1.2 billion.

The devil is in the details. Miami negotiated for 5% of "net profit", not "gross profit", meaning their 5% is based on the transaction minus certain allowable expenses. The key one being "less the value of the team", which wipes out most of the perceived "profit". I'm thinking the city didn't exactly have the sharpest tools in the shed negotiating this thing.

I think this article actually does a pretty good job of showing how Loria's claims might be plausible (depending upon the eventual valuation decision) under the terms of the agreement

How can Loria claim no profits from $1.2 billion Marlins sale? | Miami Herald

[Logan]

A city being taken to the woodshed in a negotiation with a franchise owner?! No way.

[JPhillips]

Jonathan Martin taken into custody and LA school locked down after threatening Instagram post.

https://deadspin.com/jonathan-martin...-in-1823275206