WW LXXIV Killer Kittens on Mount FujiMori day (GAME OVER- KITTENS WIN)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Which post?

I'm prepared to move off CW tomorrow, but not onto Cronin.

I've got a couple of others in mind, but I want to go read back through the run on PB. Honestly, I don't know that the wolves would've picked up on his hints without hoops anyways.

The post right before the one I had quoted. I thought you were asking who PB scanned, with the intent of killing that person and finding out if they are really good or not.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm pretty sure I saw exactly what PB wanted someone (me or otherwise) to see in this spot. I didn't initially pick up any of the hints he listed earlier. Going now to look at the context around those posts to see if it passes the sniff test.

I didn't catch what he was saying at all, either. In fact, I didn't catch it until you mentioned it, hoops. It's definitely something I wish I had caught sooner, though -- if so, my vote might have been different Day 1. But that's the risk you run with dropping vague clues -- some people who would help you might not catch what you're saying. But it might be good for PB if he was a wolf for people not to catch what he was saying, in case he doesn't want to do the fake reveal.

I think I'm going to leave my vote where it is, but I'm willing to listen to some arguments.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You're not the only one. jeheinz guaranteed no tie -- you at least had an excuse, too. KWhit said something about hating ties, and he didn't do anything, either (but I think he was hinting that he was too confused to break the tie).

I did say I hated ties, but I was complaining about all the last minute switching which I knew had a great chance of causing a tie.

The problem is that when it's that close, usually you get the following scenario:
Many people decides they'll break the tie and switch their vote at the last second - but because so many people are moving their votes, some people move from A to B and some from B to A. And we still end up with a tie.

That makes me crazy. There was no way I was going to contribute to that.

[Passacaglia]

Check that, I'm pretty sure I *will* change my vote. Just had a sudden realization.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Check that, I'm pretty sure I *will* change my vote. Just had a sudden realization.

Ooo. Do tell.

[The Jackal]

Please do tell, I'm not much closer to deciding on who to vote for.

As for my availability in the morning.. I have a project at work that needs to be done by 3, so I will check in as often as I can but I'm gonna be straight working most of the morning. Lame.

[EagleFan]

Not sure if I will be around tomorrow so I better make this change now. My reasoning will be in the follow up post.

unvote cronin

vote hoops

[EagleFan]

Reasoning:

With all the focus around PB trying to claim to be the seer (I still don't believe) there are several options (correct me if I missed something):

A) PB is the fool. This means that he is still a villager so keeping him alive helps us. Cronin's status is unknown as the scan was random.

B) PB is the seer. We want both PB and cronin to remain alive.

C) PB is a wolf. He could either try to save a wolf, or randomly pick a villager to save. If he gets caught the assumption would most likely be that we go after who he tried to save so he would pick a villager to save. If he thinks he will be believed than he picks a wolf to save. Since this came out with him getting votes it would most likely be option one.



The highest percentage of those options point towards cronin not being a wolf so I will not vote for him. Though I still believe that PB is playing us I won't vote for him as he could be either fool or seer which is stil a good thing for us.

Something about hoops' actions have stood out to me. It's more of a gut feeling than anything but since I put my vote on him for day one I will go back there for day two. It almost seems to me like he is trying to draw out the other seer/fool by his inquiries. This could also tell me that cronin is good as the wolves would not know if PB is fool (which could help the wolves with bad scans) or seer so it would be better for them to draw both out and eliminate them. Sadly, if I read a couple f those posts correctly, the wolves may have already drawn the other one out into the open (or the other may have drawn themselves out).

Of course, I could be over-thinking everything. I have a bad habit of doing that.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Didn't he already reveal the results of his "scan" when he clears cronin?

I think there's some BS going on here.

Check the timestamps - I was writing that post while PB was writing the post where he explicitly mentioned cronin.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Check the timestamps - I was writing that post while PB was writing the post where he explicitly mentioned cronin.

I probably didn't state is correctly in my post. The BS was a reference to the PB reveal, not to your question. I probably didn't do a good job of seperating the two comments.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, I largely stepped away from this thread after voting Thursday night, and although I did read the thread a lot (particularly Friday), I didn't post again, so this will all (I realize) feel like it's coming out of nowhere (and if that hangs me, so be it; I pay the price for my infrequent posting at times).

I have been trying to make head or tails of the voting on Friday and get a handle on the actions of everyone. This is hard to do, because this is the point at which most of us know absolutely nothing for sure, and some of us (I think three is a good guess) know all that they need to know (and as a percentage of the "underlying" knowledge available to us as a group, they essentially know "everything").

Therefore, we have 14 people stumbling around in the dark, and 3 omniscient people with all of us to play with. But it's a dangerous game and one in which those three know that the numbers are starkly against them, and as time goes by, their advantage in "game knowledge" will dwindle.

This isn't a situation in just this game, this is repeated in pretty much all WW games that bear some resemblance to the standard WW game. Given that, I think I can apply some of Day 1 beliefs to try to drum up suspicion in some ways or debunk it in others.

I will start with the three vote getters. It's simple math here. Take Alan, a known villager out, and we're left with the question, what are the odds we have netted a wolf among any of the three? This is straight on random, with no manipulation. Pick a target at random, and you're looking at 3/16 chance of implicating a wolf, then 3/15, then 3/14, all assuming that odds shake out each time and we get villagers. Our chances, all told, of ending up with three villagers among PB, hoops and st.cronin is (13/16)*(12/15)*(11/14) = (1716/3360) = 51%. So assuming the wolves do absolutely nothing to manipulate, going straight off numbers, we have a 50% chance of having all three be villagers. And we know the wolves will manipulate--this is their best opportunity to do it and get away with it. They know everything, we know nothing.

I also believe that the common assumption that shenanigans at the end mean a wolf is being saved is pretty unlikely on Day One. It's too risky for another wolf to go out on a limb like that. So usually when we have a mess like the end of Day One on Friday, that means we have three villager candidates, and we're all tripping over each other to hang them, while the wolves lay safely by and laugh at us. I should know--I have many times been a wolf and watched this exact scenario play out.

So I believe that all of hoops, PB and st.cronin--for now--are villagers and the wolves by and large stayed away from the "strike of the deadline" voting, which means that those involved at the end are villagers, too. This is all guesswork, so take it for what it's worth, but I can only read what we have now. All this subject to change.

Eliminating final vote changers and the three vote getters removes PB, hoops, cronin, mccollins, Lathum and Passacaglia. Those last three are actually hard for me to remove because I really don't like mccollins' move that didn't pick one of the others (merely removed his cronin vote), I am always a little suspicious of Lathum (and his vote has been bouncing around too much), and Pass violated another wolfdar trip for me by being a veteran who held his vote until later on Day One (classic wolf move to play your vote cautiously; I do it all the time if I have the option).

I decided to focus on the previous round of votes, which is where I would be as a wolf if I still had something I needed to do. That grouping is about an hour to a half hour before deadline. Four of them are already out--Pass, hoops, PB and Lathum. The fifth is CW, where he switches from olie to PB, his third switch of the day. His switch also put PB in the lead, but not so egregiously so (or so close to the deadline) that he would necessarily be tagged for it right away or in analysis.

Is it fleeting? Yes. I am one of the 14 that knew absolutely nothing on Day One, and now the only things I know is that we now know ties suck in this game and that Alan T was a good guy.

But if I follow my own rules and what little logic I can put together, my best candidate right now is Coffee Warlord. It really doesn't have so much to do with his vote choice, but with its timing and the temporary elimination of others.

I will be out, of course, during deadline, so this vote will have to stick.

VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Just want to point out:

2 posts after the first vote, I get the second.
1 post after the third vote, I get the fourth.
1 post after the fifth, I get the sixth.

3 pairs voting, together?

One of the silliest WW beliefs that is most commonly accepted. This is too veteran a group (the WW crew at FOFC) to have a complete newbie wolf crew, so all wolf crews have at least one vet, and that one vet will ensure no one makes a dumb move like piling on or following too close to other wolves on votes, especially early in games (first three days or so) and early on days (well before deadline).

Not saying you're silly, mind you, PB. It's just that belief is a strongly held one and I have come to believe it is one of the most unlikely ones to be true, kinda like the belief that the end of deadline voter who "saves" someone has to be a wolf protecting someone (another one that almost never turns out to be true, IMO).

[hoopsguy]

OK, I think pretty much the same thing I thought last night. If PB was a/the seer, I think he would have made more noise around the deadline. But the posts he quotes are not near the deadline - there is a gap from posts #254 to #390. The deadline was at post #381. PB is posting often as the deadline approaches, including moving votes.

I don't buy the reveal. I'm sorry if I'm contributing to the death of a seer.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

If on the other hand we assume hoopsguy is a doggy, we get the following:

looks suspicious:
Passacaglia (moved off of hoopsguy at the deadline)
Lathum (ditto)
mccollins (went out of his way not to vote for hoopsguy)
Coffee Warlord (switched onto PB towards the deadline)
jeheinz72 (switched onto me towards the deadline)
KWhit (switched onto me towards the deadline)

I may have missed somebody there - there was a lot of movement towards me and PB.

The only person who comes out looking good in this analysis is, I think, oliegirl - 2nd vote on hoopsguy, always a dangerous vote.

Shouldn't I be on every single list since I supposedly did a throwaway vote?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, I think pretty much the same thing I thought last night. If PB was a/the seer, I think he would have made more noise around the deadline. But the posts he quotes are not near the deadline - there is a gap from posts #254 to #390. The deadline was at post #381. PB is posting often as the deadline approaches, including moving votes.

I don't buy the reveal. I'm sorry if I'm contributing to the death of a seer.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

So, you're not believing PB because he didn't make a reveal near deadline? But, if he were a wolf, wouldn't he be just as likely to do that? I'm not sure that's enough for me to condemn him, and I think, given the rules of the game, you need to watch out for getting an idea (wherever it may come from), and holding on to it due to wishful thinking.

For those, hoping I was going to tell them something last night, sorry. My only thing was that I believe PB.

UNVOTE PURDUEBRAD

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

One of the silliest WW beliefs that is most commonly accepted. This is too veteran a group (the WW crew at FOFC) to have a complete newbie wolf crew, so all wolf crews have at least one vet, and that one vet will ensure no one makes a dumb move like piling on or following too close to other wolves on votes, especially early in games (first three days or so) and early on days (well before deadline).

Not saying you're silly, mind you, PB. It's just that belief is a strongly held one and I have come to believe it is one of the most unlikely ones to be true, kinda like the belief that the end of deadline voter who "saves" someone has to be a wolf protecting someone (another one that almost never turns out to be true, IMO).

CR, I agree with you here but I just thought it was odd that every vote came in pairs. I wasn't implying that the pairs might be wolves but that the run could be sustained by a wolf vote or two. But yeah, you're right, things would be too blatantly obvious and simplified if that's how they voted.

[PurdueBrad]

By the way, looking at the forum, are we moving up in the world?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Our chances, all told, of ending up with three villagers among PB, hoops and st.cronin is (13/16)*(12/15)*(11/14) = (1716/3360) = 51%. So assuming the wolves do absolutely nothing to manipulate, going straight off numbers, we have a 50% chance of having all three be villagers.

So I believe that all of hoops, PB and st.cronin--for now--are villagers and the wolves by and large stayed away from the "strike of the deadline" voting, which means that those involved at the end are villagers, too. This is all guesswork, so take it for what it's worth, but I can only read what we have now. All this subject to change.

Alright, I'm really torn here. I've been going back and forth over something in my head most of last night. The last time I was seer and dropped hints like this, Hoops was the only one that picked up on it and was a wolf. He still, IRC, dropped a vote on me during the day and then night-killed me when that didn't pass.

Heinz mentioned something day one about wolf playing like a wolf from the last game (when he was a wolf).

I want to drop a vote here on Hoops because I think it is interesting that he draws out what he wants to hear and then still puts a vote on me. I don't quite get it.

The fact that there is a 51% chance we were villager-villager-villager on day 1 does bother me with this vote but I will go there now (plus I get the feeling that Eaglefan moving his vote is an attempt to spread out votes so I don't like voting with him here).

unvote Eaglefan
vote Hoopsguy

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Heinz mentioned something day one about Hoops playing like a wolf from the last game (when he was a wolf).

Mistype corrected above. Heinz, what pinged you day one?

[Lathum]

Unvote PB
Vote HoopsGuy

I'm not sure why you would want to lynch someone who claims seer. Seems like you may be trying to capitilize on an oppritunity.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

By the way, looking at the forum, are we moving up in the world?

what do you mean by this?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Lathum

what do you mean by this?

On my forum screen, we had moved up by the other main forums. Then I read about the move to OS and assumed that that might be the reasoning.

[RendeR]

UNVOTE CRONIN

VOTE EAGLEFAN


I've seen enough to convince me to give him the benefit of the doubt for today.

[RendeR]

UNVOTE PURDUEBRAD

VOTE EAGLEFAN

man I'm not well today. no bold and the wrong name.....sheesh.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

The fact that there is a 51% chance we were villager-villager-villager on day 1 does bother me with this vote but I will go there now (plus I get the feeling that Eaglefan moving his vote is an attempt to spread out votes so I don't like voting with him here).

What bothers you about that? It's a 50/50 proposition: all three might be villagers, or one or more of them is wolfy. Seems like the math puts us back at square one. Maybe it's because I get enough math in RL, but I usually avoid it in WW and go with my gut more.

[Passacaglia]

Workin' on a vote count.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What bothers you about that? It's a 50/50 proposition: all three might be villagers, or one or more of them is wolfy. Seems like the math puts us back at square one. Maybe it's because I get enough math in RL, but I usually avoid it in WW and go with my gut more.

What I meant was, and maybe you did understand this, was that although it's basically a coin toss, I'm not sure putting a vote on Hoops here is the right way to go, that's what was bothering me. I have no reason, except what I stated above from previous gaming experience, to suspect him. I think he even mentioned our history some and we tend to be at odds so I don't want that clouding my choice. And I was and am willing to go Eaglefan as well but for now, Hoops' vote on me is playing out very much like deja vu.

[Seolian]

This is a tough game to get a hold of and learn what each other is doing for sure. So much changing votes and everything, but I guess that is expected when we really dont know who is who and it changes from game to game. Does it get easier to read people the longer you play?

[st.cronin]

I believe PurdueBrad is lying.

[Passacaglia]

Here's what I have:

Coffee Warlord -- mccollins (493), Chief Rum (661)
st.cronin -- jeheinz72 (505)
PurdueBrad -- st.cronin (506), oliegirl (610), Seolian (611), hoopsguy (663)
oliegirl --
EagleFan -- RendeR (674)
mccollins -- Coffee Warlord (562), Kwhit (612)
hoopsguy -- EagleFan (657), PurdueBrad (668), Lathum (670)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I believe PurdueBrad is lying.

Why? I'm looking for reasons not to believe him, but I don't see any.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

What I meant was, and maybe you did understand this, was that although it's basically a coin toss, I'm not sure putting a vote on Hoops here is the right way to go, that's what was bothering me. I have no reason, except what I stated above from previous gaming experience, to suspect him. I think he even mentioned our history some and we tend to be at odds so I don't want that clouding my choice. And I was and am willing to go Eaglefan as well but for now, Hoops' vote on me is playing out very much like deja vu.

I agree that hoopsguy's vote is troubling. I'm hoping I can convince him to change it before deadline. If not, we need to look into the idea that he's lying, but for now I trust him.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I believe PurdueBrad is lying.

It is early enough that there wouldn't be any counter reveals since there's two seer roles. I feel like we need to make sense of day one.

Vote PurdueBrad

[The Jackal]

My vote is open to change.. Eagle and MC have been pinging the radar.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I believe PurdueBrad is lying.

why, are you a wolf?

[claphamsa]

pass thanks for doing the vote coutn!


evryone get those orders in

im off to get my emissions test done forgot to study!

[Passacaglia]

My current belief is that both PB and hoops are good, which puts us in a mess of trouble right now. I'm looking to vote either CW or mccollins. I had a lot of suspicion of mccollins earlier, but that was predicated on PB being bad. If I don't think PB is bad, I'll have to rethink mccollins. On the other hand, I have no reason to suspect CW.

[Coffee Warlord]

Just 'cause I like it in numeric format.

CW - 2
Cronin - 1
PB - 5
EagleFan - 1
Mccollins - 2
Hoops - 3

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My current belief is that both PB and hoops are good, which puts us in a mess of trouble right now. I'm looking to vote either CW or mccollins. I had a lot of suspicion of mccollins earlier, but that was predicated on PB being bad. If I don't think PB is bad, I'll have to rethink mccollins. On the other hand, I have no reason to suspect CW.

I've yet to see anything that sways me from my original push on mccollins, in fact, some of the things he's posted during day 2 have strengthened my view on him.

If I'm wrong and we lynch mccollins today, I'm pretty much a dead man tomorrow anyway.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I've yet to see anything that sways me from my original push on mccollins, in fact, some of the things he's posted during day 2 have strengthened my view on him.

If I'm wrong and we lynch mccollins today, I'm pretty much a dead man tomorrow anyway.

I was just thinking that you've been pretty strong on mccollins -- and the way you guys both have your votes on each other strike me as two wolves. I think I'm going to vote mccollins, to see if you hold on to these convictions in a close vote. Also, it seems a mccollins vote has the best chance to save PB and hoops -- I saw The Jackal mention him recently, and I know that others have, so I'm hoping others will join me in this vote.

VOTE MCCOLLINS

[Seolian]

UNVOTE PURDUEBRAD
VOTE MCCOLLINS

I feel that PURDUEBRAD is not a bad guy and he is telling the truth right now. Voting for MCCollins due to so much chatter about him of late.

[Seolian]

UNVOTE PURDUEBRAD
VOTE MCCOLLINS

I feel that PURDUEBRAD is not a bad guy and he is telling the truth right now. Voting for MCCollins due to so much chatter about him of late.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by mcollins

Nope, just playing different this game. Throwing stones and seeing who reacts most strongly - or gets their wolf buddies to attack back at me.

I want to believe you PB, but some of those seem tenuous at best. I think 254 is the best example.

If you do get lynched and come up as a wolf, it looks like hoops just lobbed you a softball to try to explain some of the suspicion (that I still don't understand) away. I hope you really are what you're hinting at.

I'm prepared to move off CW tomorrow, but not onto Cronin.

I've got a couple of others in mind, but I want to go read back through the run on PB. Honestly, I don't know that the wolves would've picked up on his hints without hoops anyways.

These are tidbits from Day 2 from my boy.

I see a classic 'soft', non-combative reasoning, that is trying to give the illusion of some valid reasoning to vote someone. He states he wants to believe PB, but isn't satisfied and basically doesn't trust the reveal. Moving further down, he then basically pulls a 180 and apparently DOES believe PB, believing cronin to be good and quite concerned about the run on him.

There's just a lot of indecisive fluff there. It's the kind of non-combative stuff that you use when you want to appear to be involved in the conversation, but really aren't offering much of anything. Add that to what happeend on Day 1, and I firmly believe I'm on the right track.

[Lathum]

I am amazed by the people considering voting PB today, it is such an unnecessery risk.

If he is telling the truth he becomes an instant night kill target, so why do the wolves a favor. We are much better off letting the wolves twist in the wind trying to figure out if PB is going to be protected tonight or tomorrow night. Based on what happens at night we can determine PB's alliegence then.

If there is no BG block or he is alive in a couple of days we can then assume he was lying.

Seems like the obvious play and Hoops should know that.

[Lathum]

dola- basicly if PB is telling the truth keeping him alive creates all kinds of problems for the wolves.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am amazed by the people considering voting PB today, it is such an unnecessery risk.

If he is telling the truth he becomes an instant night kill target, so why do the wolves a favor. We are much better off letting the wolves twist in the wind trying to figure out if PB is going to be protected tonight or tomorrow night. Based on what happens at night we can determine PB's alliegence then.

If there is no BG block or he is alive in a couple of days we can then assume he was lying.

Seems like the obvious play and Hoops should know that.

To play devil's advocate for a moment.

Let's assume he's good, and is either the seer or the fool. He has a TON of suspicion on him right now, and there's a 50/50 chance his scans are worthless. The wolves could just as easily leave him alive, thusly adding even more distrust to him, and let us do the work for them.

Hell, I think that's the smarter play for the wolves. There's going to be a lot of people who don't trust his scans, even if there WASN'T a fool role in the game.

[oliegirl]

I'm not sure who to believe...with 2 seer roles, we could have PB telling the truth but not knowing which seer he is, or we could have a wolf doing a fake reveal b/c the wolves know the real seers aren't going to come out with counter reveals this early.

My gut right now says to stick with PB. I want to go back and check something - if I find what I think I'm going to find I'll post it...

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So, what happened?

Just catching up now

Why didn't I break the tie? Honestly (and I think I posted this post-deadline Friday) I went to smoke at 8:50 figuring I'd come back and switch if needed. Only I got a bit caught up and didn't sit down until like 8:58 and then there were so many (well, enough) new votes without a count that I couldn't even decipher really where I'd have needed to switch to. By the time I had an idea of who to switch to, it was past deadline.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Just catching up now

Why didn't I break the tie? Honestly (and I think I posted this post-deadline Friday) I went to smoke at 8:50 figuring I'd come back and switch if needed. Only I got a bit caught up and didn't sit down until like 8:58 and then there were so many (well, enough) new votes without a count that I couldn't even decipher really where I'd have needed to switch to. By the time I had an idea of who to switch to, it was past deadline.

Yet you had time for your witty rejoinder of post 383, right at the deadline? It just struck me as odd that you were guaranteeing a tie in the morning, but when deadline came, and it was a tie, you were sitting there joking around with me.

[Passacaglia]

Sorry -- guranteeing NO tie.