Hurricane Florence

[Thomkal]

Sadly not good news for Florence for the SE Coast Gov of SC just issued a state of emergency for the state-could be a Cat 4 hurricane when its gets here, probably on Wed.






BEN EDIT:

[Ben E Lou]

Based on the latest maps, the Triad/Triangle corridor in central NC (i.e. where I live) appears to be in the bulls-eye for the highest rainfall amounts, as Florence is expected to stall over land. It's extremely hilly where I live, so I'd expect flooding impacts to vary greatly. (My floor is probably 15 feet higher than the back of my property line, and there are homes 100 feet higher in elevation than ours in the same neighborhood.)

[Ben E Lou]

Nearly every high school football game in the area has been moved up, most to Wednesday. Coastal evac.

Our home should be good, but my wife's office is in a flood zone. Ugh.

[Lathum]

Stay safe

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

N
early every high school football game in the area has been moved up, most to Wednesday. Coastal evac.

Our home should be good, but my wife's office is in a flood zone. Ugh.

Same here. Most coastal counties under evacuation including here. Schools including Coastal Carolina closed starting tomorrow. Coastal moved up their football game vs Campbell to Wed and now playing at their place. Does not look like we are going to get a direct hit here right now but that can change. My brother who lived 5 mins away just moved this summer to 45 mins away and more inland, so we are heading there.

[Thomkal]

All five million Walmarts in the area, give or take a million are closing as of Midnight tonight, so now I know its serious. Also I'm glad I went shopping there today.

[EagleFan]

Stay safe.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Same here. Most coastal counties under evacuation including here. Schools including Coastal Carolina closed starting tomorrow. Coastal moved up their football game vs Campbell to Wed and now playing at their place. Does not look like we are going to get a direct hit here right now but that can change. My brother who lived 5 mins away just moved this summer to 45 mins away and more inland, so we are heading there.

smart move, so many people think they can ride it out. Not worth the risk

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

All five million Walmarts in the area, give or take a million are closing as of Midnight tonight, so now I know its serious. Also I'm glad I went shopping there today.

tonight? isnt it supposed to hit Thursday?

[tarcone]

Good luck and stay safe

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

tonight? isnt it supposed to hit Thursday?

Yep but there's a lot of people to move out here along the coast, more so for this one because all evacuation zones are being asked to leave. They will be closing some east bound lanes on local highways to help with the traffic. And a lot of things to take care of with you house/yard/pets/kids before you are ready to leave. Unfortunately the state has has far too much experience with bad hurricanes to take their chances with it.

[claphamsa]

fair enough, i hope to have power on Saturday

[CU Tiger]

Local high school game moved up to thursday.

Thomkal, if 45 minhutes isn't enough ping me..I'm basically in the rock hill area for a general locations and we have room if ya need it.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Local high school game moved up to thursday.

Thomkal, if 45 minhutes isn't enough ping me..I'm basically in the rock hill area for a general locations and we have room if ya need it.

Thanks buddy! I'm heading to the Marion area so hoping that's far enough inland to avoid the worst of it. But I will keep you in mind if we need to go elsewhere (and you can deal with a cat)

[CU Tiger]

I'm not a cat fan...But I'd make an exception.
I think this thing is going north. I think Wilmington, jacks9nville, Fayetteville are in for an event but we will see

[Neon_Chaos]

Stay safe folks.

Meanwhile, we are preparing for Typhoon Mangkhut here in Manila.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/speci...er-11-2018-5am

[miami_fan]

Good Luck folks. Be safe up there!

[Ben E Lou]

We're now in a transitional zone. Local meteorologists are saying a shift in track 50 miles either way could mean the difference between us getting 3-4 inches or 20-25 inches.

[Ben E Lou]

Every Other Public Official In The Carolinas: "Take this storm seriously! Be prepared! Get your emergency kits together!"


My Mayor: "We have the BEST water system. Nothing can happen. THIS SHIP CANNOT BE SUNK!!!!1"

If you are on city water there is no reason to buy bottled water. Our system is reliable and well prepared. It is designed to operate during and after the storm. @greensborocity

— Mayor Nancy Vaughan (@VaughanNancy) September 10, 2018

I hope that we don't get the unprecedented rainfall totals that are possible here so that this statement doesn't have to be tested. Regardless, this seems like a shockingly irresponsible statement for her to make.

[JPhillips]

I've got friends in the outer banks that have decided to stay. If the storm stays on the Euro path they'll probably be fine, but if it takes the American path I'll be very worried.

[Ben E Lou]

Apparently the City Of Greensboro and the Mayor Of Greensboro aren't exactly on the same page...

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Every Other Public Official In The Carolinas: "Take this storm seriously! Be prepared! Get your emergency kits together!"


My Mayor: "We have the BEST water system. Nothing can happen. THIS SHIP CANNOT BE SUNK!!!!1"












I hope that we don't get the unprecedented rainfall totals that are possible here so that this statement doesn't have to be tested. Regardless, this seems like a shockingly irresponsible statement for her to make.

Ben,



Those tweets will be used against her in every campaign if something does happen. Pretty foolish advice really.

[Thomkal]

So we have decided here to move out tomorrow. Looks like the worse will miss us (sorry NC) but what happens after it hits now unclear. Maybe traffic won't be as bad? (ha!)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Ben,

Those tweets will be used against her in every campaign if something does happen. Pretty foolish advice really.

Well, yeah. Beyond the fact that it could put lives in danger, it's also a massive and completely unnecessary political risk. Astonishingly poor judgment imo.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Well, yeah. Beyond the fact that it could put lives in danger, it's also a massive and completely unnecessary political risk. Astonishingly poor judgment imo.

Don't understand what she has to gain. Would have been smarter to issue a statement saying report price gouging or something. Or at least hedge and say she has faith in the system but it wouldn't hurt to stock up.

[BishopMVP]

I guess I'm weird that I usually have some bottles lying around, but everytime I see people freaking out that they can't find bottled water anywhere I don't get why they can't just fill up some containers with tap water before the storm hits. Shoot, you can even just use extra pots or even your bathtub if you're desperate.

It'll still depend on exactly where the storm hits and if it hovers in any particular spot, but Charlotte looks like it'll be mostly unscathed. JPhillips, yeah I'd be a little worried. I'm sure they know better their house's elevation (and if they're actually on the Outer Banks or just near it), but that's the most likely spot right now for the worst (10-12') storm surges.

[JPhillips]

They live in Nag's Head, so I think they're being rather foolish. In their post they said that most of their friends are also staying. If Frances hits at the NC/SC line, they may be fine, but if it hits north of Wilmington...

[Jughead Spock]

I'm defying my governor's mandatory evacuation order. Don't rat me out.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I guess I'm weird that I usually have some bottles lying around, but everytime I see people freaking out that they can't find bottled water anywhere I don't get why they can't just fill up some containers with tap water before the storm hits. Shoot, you can even just use extra pots or even your bathtub if you're desperate.

fwiw, I saw nearly that same sentiment in the social media of a friend earlier. Not sure where the aversion to tap water came from exactly.

[NobodyHere]

I think it's always a good idea to have a couple cases of bottled water lying around. You may not get enough warning to pour tap water into containers sometimes.

For example, we just had a water line break near my neighborhood a couple weeks ago and were told not to drink the water. A few years a ago the water near the water intake valves looked like the picture below. We were told not to drink it even after boiling.

[Thomkal]

Gee I'm glad FEMA will be there to help me if I'm affected by this hurricane...wait what's that? 10 million of FEMA's budget was given to ICE to help build detention centers at the border you say?


don't have a link but Senator Merkeley of Oregon was on Maddow tonight with the document that proves it.

[Thomkal]

Not sure I will get the chance to log in tomorrow before I leave, so just wanted to thank everyone for their kind thoughts here and on Facebook. Some area is going to be hit by this monster, and its going to be pretty terrible. I really hope I have a home to come back to when its all over with. I hope the same for anyone in Florence's path or that tsunami hitting the Phillipines. I will try to let someone on Facebook or here know if things are okay here as soon as possible.

[bhlloy]

First off, thoughts to everyone actually affected by this and I hope this question doesn’t come off as crass. Stay safe FOFC peeps.

For those in the area or have gone through this before, how much trouble do you think I might be in trying to get out of ATL airport on Thursday night? Is it worth trying to get out a day early or do you think it will largely be unaffected? Trying to get a handle on how much travel in general might be affected as well as flights that might be diverted to ATL once things hit.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Jughead Spock

I'm defying my governor's mandatory evacuation order. Don't rat me out.

Why?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

fwiw, I saw nearly that same sentiment in the social media of a friend earlier. Not sure where the aversion to tap water came from exactly.

It doesn't even seem to be an aversion, just doesn't even cross people's minds.

Originally Posted by bhlloy

First off, thoughts to everyone actually affected by this and I hope this question doesn’t come off as crass. Stay safe FOFC peeps.

For those in the area or have gone through this before, how much trouble do you think I might be in trying to get out of ATL airport on Thursday night? Is it worth trying to get out a day early or do you think it will largely be unaffected? Trying to get a handle on how much travel in general might be affected as well as flights that might be diverted to ATL once things hit.

Will the weather be bad enough to affect ATL takeoffs/landings? I doubt it. But Charlotte (10th biggest airport by passenger volume) & Raleigh-Durham (only other southeast airport in the top 50 outside of Florida or Nashville) could be nearly completely closed and the ripple effects would be pretty bad. Especially if DC's airports get backed up at all too (idk if they'll be hit with more than an outer band or two by Thursday night, but I did see they declared a state of emergency too.)

Fwiw, are you in ATL & just flying out (presumably West), or are you connecting through there?

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

It doesn't even seem to be an aversion, just doesn't even cross people's minds.
Will the weather be bad enough to affect ATL takeoffs/landings? I doubt it. But Charlotte (10th biggest airport by passenger volume) & Raleigh-Durham (only other southeast airport in the top 50 outside of Florida or Nashville) could be nearly completely closed and the ripple effects would be pretty bad. Especially if DC's airports get backed up at all too (idk if they'll be hit with more than an outer band or two by Thursday night, but I did see they declared a state of emergency too.)

Fwiw, are you in ATL & just flying out (presumably West), or are you connecting through there?

In ATL for work, flying out at 8 on Thursday to LA. Leaving early is definitely possible but I’m also not going to back on site with this client for a month plus, so the extra day is more valuable than it would normally be... Thanks for the insight.

[Ksyrup]

The updates today keep pushing it south and lingering into SC, and then most likely as a low into TN and KY. First thing this morning the cone had a definitive turn north into VA, now it's just going to meander WSW for a while without any systems to steer it.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

First off, thoughts to everyone actually affected by this and I hope this question doesn’t come off as crass. Stay safe FOFC peeps.

For those in the area or have gone through this before, how much trouble do you think I might be in trying to get out of ATL airport on Thursday night? Is it worth trying to get out a day early or do you think it will largely be unaffected? Trying to get a handle on how much travel in general might be affected as well as flights that might be diverted to ATL once things hit.

fwiw
https://www.ajc.com/blog/airport/har...v0WzxKhFglx3H/

“We don’t think it will impact Atlanta and the Atlanta airport, but we are prepared to support other airports in the Southeast region that may be impacted, Bheodari said. ... Delta has not yet announced how many flights may be canceled due to the hurricane. The airline, which has a team of meteorologists, said it expects to make decision on flight cancellations or other disruptions at coastal airports about 24 hours before the storm makes landfall.

Some flight cancellations may be caused by airport conditions, such as flooding or power outages, according to Delta.

[Kodos]

Stay safe, everyone who is in the path. These storms are scary shit.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Well, yeah. Beyond the fact that it could put lives in danger, it's also a massive and completely unnecessary political risk. Astonishingly poor judgment imo.

Heh. I posted about this on FB and Twitter, and now multiple trusted friends who for various reasons have interacted with her directly have commented to me privately that the mayor is just a nitwit, and they're not at all surprised that she'd make a dumb and impulsive public statement like that. *shurg*

[Jughead Spock]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Why?

Just some logistical reasons. Not any matter of machismo, believe me. Weighed it, and it's the best decision. Not that I'm thrilled with it (especially now), but is what it is. We came through the last two years with nary a scratch - while this one looks to be worse yet, there are strong indicators that we'll be ok in our immediate area.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Jughead Spock

Just some logistical reasons. Not any matter of machismo, believe me. Weighed it, and it's the best decision. Not that I'm thrilled with it (especially now), but is what it is. We came through the last two years with nary a scratch - while this one looks to be worse yet, there are strong indicators that we'll be ok in our immediate area.

Not sure how long you've been in SC so if this is obvious I apologize.
Make sure you know your insurance policies well. Both health and homeowner coverage could be altered due to a decision to willfully defy a mandatory evacuation order.


Ive done it as well. Not judging there. Just a heads up that "I chose not to leave" could well void an insurance claim on an otherwise covered loss. Even if you were stopped at a red light and rear ended by another driver and there ended up being no weather event. Just saying.

[albionmoonlight]

It is amazing how many decisions that end up being made in life--big and small--can be traced back to "our insurance company made us do it."

Heck, even the flip side of CU's situation (insurance not covering you if you stay during an evacuation) has insurance implications. A lot of businesses have business interruption insurance. But they only pay out if there is an official evacuation order. If no one comes to your coastal restaurant because there's a tropical storm coming, but there's no mandatory evacuation--then you are just out of luck.

[Ben E Lou]

There are always angry Monday-morning quarterbacks in these situations, but it seems like the potential for that is much greater than normal here with the uncertainty of the storm track. The 2pm update has us in the 6-10 inches of rain zone, and schools are closing 2 hours early tomorrow, but it certainly appears that we could easily end up with like an inch and a half of rain and max winds of 20 mph if the southward trend continues.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

There are always angry Monday-morning quarterbacks in these situations, but it seems like the potential for that is much greater than normal here with the uncertainty of the storm track. The 2pm update has us in the 6-10 inches of rain zone, and schools are closing 2 hours early tomorrow, but it certainly appears that we could easily end up with like an inch and a half of rain and max winds of 20 mph if the southward trend continues.

Agree 100%. The storm is huge, and the track is uncertain. The prudent thing to do (which they are doing) is to tell lots of people to prepare. But that means, logically, that a lot of those people will not get even TS level winds/rain.

That was one issue with Katrina. The last storm to hit NOLA directly was in 1969. But throughout my childhood, there were multiple near misses that turned away at the last minute. Lots of people in the area had gotten used to evacuating and then having it be for naught. So at some point, they just stopped taking evacuation warnings seriously. Then Katrina happened.

[Ben E Lou]

I giggled.

[Jughead Spock]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Not sure how long you've been in SC so if this is obvious I apologize.
Make sure you know your insurance policies well. Both health and homeowner coverage could be altered due to a decision to willfully defy a mandatory evacuation order.


Ive done it as well. Not judging there. Just a heads up that "I chose not to leave" could well void an insurance claim on an otherwise covered loss. Even if you were stopped at a red light and rear ended by another driver and there ended up being no weather event. Just saying.

Very good points.

And yeah, this thing is crazy. The models are all over the place.

[Ben E Lou]

Split Florence out into its own thread, as recovery discussion may be quite extended.

[Ben E Lou]

Schools here closed tomorrow, making Guilford County the last major system (if not the last period) in this area to close.

[weegeebored]

Stay safe in the US and Phils. I can't really fathom what hell those storms really bring as I'm sure video doesn't begin to capture the havoc. Praying that these storms are not like Katrina or Haiyun.