WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I know its unfortunate, but there's no point in lying about it. I still maintain that it would've been terrible for me/the wolves if I was a wolf to go after Lathum N1. So basically, either the wolves sold me down the river (if you believe I'm a wolf), or my villager teammate has. Fun.

And I disagree that it would be a terrible move for the wolves. If they believe they know both eh seer and the BG, then I think it's elementary to go after the BG first. They then get a certain kill the next day. Lathum revealing to you, if you're a wolf, would be a gift, given a seer reveal. If the seer hadn't revealed, I doubt the wolves hit Lathum until day two probably.

I think it could just be bad luck, but Jackal I don't buy that it's some clearly awful move by the wolves. Day one I can very easily buy that the wolves weren't thinking that people can talk after death.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Based on this line of thinking, a vote on mau's teammate may give us the most information for a day 2 vote. That is, unfortunately, Danny.

Actually it's not. It only appears this way. My teammate is really Eaglefan and he rewards players who take care of his teammate.

[Chief Rum]

I may question Lathum's decision, but I can't question the result. I believe he is the BG, and the circumstantial evidence is strong to suggest that The Jackal is a wolf, and maybe mau as well.

There is room for doubt, of course. Plenty of seers who are unfortunately targeted on Day One then reveal. Most of them are indeed seers. It's very risky for a wolf to fake a reveal that gains them just a day or two at best. And Lathum is a veteran player who could certainly draw a kill.

The issue is that mau was pretty clearly established as the likely seer at deadline. And yet the wolves attack Lathum? That flies in the face of WW logic, just as much as Lathum protecting himself over the seer. That lends creedence to The Jackal and mau being wolves.

It's still possible the wolves assumed the BG would protect mau and just picked a veteran player to take out, and it turned out to be Lathum, the BG. In that casem The Jackal could very well be innocent. But that seems a small chance to me. And in any case, we're not going to know the truth until we start killing those involved to get answers.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[The Jackal]

So between all the wolves, no one would read the rules? Hmph. I'm going to die based on crappy assumptions!

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Right, but the wolves are usually and should be much more careful when it comes to the rules. Their margin for error is much smaller. I'm a villager too, which is why I wasn't sure of it either. But again, I'm just laying out some things to help people make a decision. I'd like to see at least one other candidate with me, even if I'm going to bite it. I'm not roled, I'm winning the race, I can still participate in discussing people's posts and my gut after I'm dead. So I'm not a terrible loss. But if I can show people the light and we lynch someone else, there's a chance of catching a wolf instead of 0%. This is from my POV, of course, no one can trust me further than reading what I have to say and making their own opinion/gut reads.

I don't think, on day one at least, that the wolves generally know the rules better. Depends on the wolf.

I do however agree that another candidate would be good. If you're bad it's always good to give the wolves another option ;-)

[The Jackal]

Crappy assumptions and a perfectly logical argument based on Lathum being targeted, of course.

[Danny]

Jackal, you could be telling the truth, but odds are you're not. On day 2, with not a whole lot to go on, there's no other smart lynch choice.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I do however agree that another candidate would be good. If you're bad it's always good to give the wolves another option ;-)

I'd think if I was bad it'd be better for me not to encourage another option, so as no wolves could be called out for their votes on me since EVERYONE is voting for me.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Danny

Jackal, you could be telling the truth, but odds are you're not. On day 2, with not a whole lot to go on, there's no other smart lynch choice.

I've been pretty much resigned to it for a while. I should go get some exercise done instead of trying to contribute good ideas, since I can do that after I'm dead anyways. Can't blame me for trying to save myself, can you? Would've been a nice villager argument memory for me.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'd think if I was bad it'd be better for me not to encourage another option, so as no wolves could be called out for their votes on me since EVERYONE is voting for me.

If you're a wolf, there's no way other wolves aren't voting for you even if there is another candidate brought up unless it's a tighter race.

[Danny]

The good thing is that if you are telling the truth, you at least still get to contribute as a trusted villager.

[Chief Rum]

Jackal, I think the issue now isn't whether you're bad or not. It's that there's a question here and your death will answer it. It's unfortunate, but as you know, this happens a lot. We need to know your allegiance, and we can't take what you say on face value.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Jackal, I think the issue now isn't whether you're bad or not. It's that there's a question here and your death will answer it. It's unfortunate, but as you know, this happens a lot. We need to know your allegiance, and we can't take what you say on face value.

I know, but there's something to be gained by observing how people are treating this runaway on me, that's mostly what I'm looking at.

Like I said soon after I found out about all of this, I would probably vote for me too.

[The Jackal]

Now I just need my villagerness to be revealed so Lathum can trust me again and not think I'm trying to kill him in his sleep, and we can be a good partnership. But to his credit we're still having good discussions on the race portion!

[GoldenEagle]

VOTE DANNY

I am sorry Danny. For what it is worth, I do think you are not a wolf. But I don't like this runaway on Jackal. The wolves will be able to just hide their votes on Jackal and the day will be wasted from a voting standpoint.

[The Jackal]

You like the reasoning on mau not scanning his teammate, but are voting for him even though you think he isn't a wolf? If anything someone that was in the voting yesterday might be a better candidate. Aside from CR, of course.

[Autumn]

We don't even need the "I got killed early" thread in this game. Just think guys, if you're a villager who gets lynched, you get to spend the rest of the game rubbing it in. This will be epic.

I also just want to say sympathies to Martin. EF and GoldenEagle know I almost blew a game apart like that myself, and only didn't because GE was good enough to bow out. It sucks to make a mistake like that.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

You like the reasoning on mau not scanning his teammate, but are voting for him even though you think he isn't a wolf? If anything someone that was in the voting yesterday might be a better candidate. Aside from CR, of course.

Not really. The day 1 votes were mostly random. I don't see anything useful. I am, after all, trying to help you mostly.

[Danny]

Saldana, if you come on, what time did MartinD screw up and send you the message indicating he was a wolf? And do you think he realized he screwed up?

I'm asking to know if he knew he was done for when he made his vote.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

You like the reasoning on mau not scanning his teammate, but are voting for him even though you think he isn't a wolf? If anything someone that was in the voting yesterday might be a better candidate. Aside from CR, of course.

Well, while mau's "scan" was correct, I'm not cleared until he is.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Danny

Saldana, if you come on, what time did MartinD screw up and send you the message indicating he was a wolf? And do you think he realized he screwed up?

I'm asking to know if he knew he was done for when he made his vote.

.

Originally Posted by saldana

In response to the timing question. I got the PM from martin a few hours earlier than I posted in the thread because I was waiting to see what EF said about it

I was ready to drop out of the game until he told me that it was ok to come in and give the info up to the village.

I didn't get that PM til about 5 minutes before I posted

I worked til 630 last night and had my kids til 9, so that was the fastest i could turn the info around

As far as me giving up a wolf on day 1 to draw a scan because I am the cunning, that's a really ballsy move on day one that would have been totally unnecessary. I'm a vanilla villager who got lucky

[bhlloy]

Sal answered the first part of that question in post #488. The timing seems to work in a general "wolves trying to take the heat off Mauboy" kind of way to me.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

You like the reasoning on mau not scanning his teammate, but are voting for him even though you think he isn't a wolf? If anything someone that was in the voting yesterday might be a better candidate. Aside from CR, of course.

I honestly didn't put that much value in being able to pm him. He's my partner in a race. I guess I am not seeing the Almighty value in must knowing what my teammate is at this time. I've never played with him before so I don't know his tendencies or anything like that. Hell I run into the same problem with anybody I scan with the cunning ability. I'd almost rather my partner not know I was a seer just becaude of that, especially being an inexperienced player, he could feed me all sorts of stuff that the wolves want to say.

[Danny]

Doesn't answer my question though. His posts says what time he got a PM from EF. I want to know what time the original PM from Martin came to know if he realized he screwed up when he made his vote.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Lathum, another question: did you have reason to suspect The Jackal prior to the deadline and the attack? Or did you think he was a villager and was surprised you were attacked?

Sorry for the delays, busy day at work, trying to check in when possible.

I was surprised I was attacked

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by saldana View Post
In response to the timing question. I got the PM from martin a few hours earlier than I posted in the thread because I was waiting to see what EF said about it

Sal posted the reveal at 9:34 EST, so the PM from Martin comes in at 6pm at the earliest. Way after it becomes apparent that Mauboy is likely to be voted out.

[Danny]

Not necessarily, few hours is a broad term. I've used it when actually meaning several hours. You are most likely right though.

[hoopsguy]

I haven't contributed a ton to this discussion mostly because I agree that Jackal is going to get dialed up today based on how Lathum described events.

I'm certainly not any more than 50/50 on it being Jackal, but I don't see too much value in a runoff if the vote is a foregone conclusion. If we're wrong, we've wasted a day of voting. And we move on ... wish there was something I could envision that provided more value but I can't come up with anything.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[Autumn]

So what's the theory behind this? Mauboy is a wolf who has gotten heat, being the lead vote recipient. He fake reveals as seer to buy him time. And then Saldana, apparently a wolf also, fingers Martin, who's also a wolf, to keep Mauboy from getting axed? That doesn't make any sense. Someone explain to me what the theory is.

[Autumn]

Oh, I guess Danny you're just trying to figure out if Martin's vote was a red herring or not. I see, sorry, I'm not able to follow along as closely so far in this game as normally, my reading comprehension is apparnetly suffering.

[Danny]

You missed part of it Autumn. Mau is a wolf who fake reveals, Saldana is a wolf who turns in MartinD, also a wolf, they then attack Lathum revealing Jackal to be a wolf and you try and act all confused as the 5th wolf.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Oh, I guess Danny you're just trying to figure out if Martin's vote was a red herring or not. I see, sorry, I'm not able to follow along as closely so far in this game as normally, my reading comprehension is apparnetly suffering.

Right

[hoopsguy]

I'm not prepared to think any further than Mauboy as a wolf at this point. And I do want to give it some thought, but probably not serious thought until after deadline tonight. It seems like our voting direction is pretty locked in at this point.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Autumn

So what's the theory behind this? Mauboy is a wolf who has gotten heat, being the lead vote recipient. He fake reveals as seer to buy him time. And then Saldana, apparently a wolf also, fingers Martin, who's also a wolf, to keep Mauboy from getting axed? That doesn't make any sense. Someone explain to me what the theory is.

It only makes sense if Mauboy is the cunning. But it is a big risk on the part of the wolves. In fact, I can't see anyway that it computes. If mauboy is still around on say, day 4, we are going to know he is full of crap and lynch him.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Danny

You missed part of it Autumn. Mau is a wolf who fake reveals, Saldana is a wolf who turns in MartinD, also a wolf, they then attack Lathum revealing Jackal to be a wolf and you try and act all confused as the 5th wolf.

I'm assuming this is sarcasm, but I don't think Sal has to be a wolf in this scenario. At some point, wolf or not Sal is fed the info and he outs MartinD in the process. The only requirement I see is that the wolves decide that Martin has to go to protect Mauboy. The only way this makes sense is if Mauboy is a roled wolf.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

You missed part of it Autumn. Mau is a wolf who fake reveals, Saldana is a wolf who turns in MartinD, also a wolf, they then attack Lathum revealing Jackal to be a wolf and you try and act all confused as the 5th wolf.

You forgot the part where Lathum orchestrates all this as the 6th wolf to gain trust, while you explain things to me as the 7th wolf.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm assuming this is sarcasm, but I don't think Sal has to be a wolf in this scenario. At some point, wolf or not Sal is fed the info and he outs MartinD in the process. The only requirement I see is that the wolves decide that Martin has to go to protect Mauboy. The only way this makes sense is if Mauboy is a roled wolf.

Yes, I was joking .

I think Saldana is a villager and I obviously have no idea about Autumn.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm assuming this is sarcasm, but I don't think Sal has to be a wolf in this scenario. At some point, wolf or not Sal is fed the info and he outs MartinD in the process. The only requirement I see is that the wolves decide that Martin has to go to protect Mauboy. The only way this makes sense is if Mauboy is a roled wolf.

I think we're wasting our time, actually, with all these scenarios. I almost never see the wolves bother to save a roled wolf at the potential risk of another one of them. Someone gets votes, you just cut them off and move on.

Whereas I almost always see the village tie themselves in knots with outrageous conspiracy theories.

If I had time I would go back through the voting record. We had a lot of movement yesterday, there might be something to mine there.

[GoldenEagle]

There is no scenario I can think of where Sal is a wolf.

[Autumn]

Wow look at everyone in here, and it's not even deadline!

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

You forgot the part where Lathum orchestrates all this as the 6th wolf to gain trust, while you explain things to me as the 7th wolf.

[Autumn]

One thing I remember noting is that when people started moving off of Mauboy, and before Martin was revealed, it seemed people were moving to odd votes. At the time I didn't understand what was happening.

there were also of course a bunch of runs. One on Mauboy, another on NTN.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Danny

Saldana, if you come on, what time did MartinD screw up and send you the message indicating he was a wolf? And do you think he realized he screwed up?

I'm asking to know if he knew he was done for when he made his vote.

5:23pm EST

[saldana]

dola, martin didnt know he did it until this morning...he is in the UK, so it was 1030 at night for him and he didnt check back in until the middle of my night (unless he did it on purpose)

as far as having done it to save mau...there isnt really alot of logic in that idea.

Martin was a vanilla wolf, so lets just say that Mau is the brutal...you sacrifice martin to do what? keep the brutal in the game until the seer reveals so you can use the brutal on the seer.

Ok what if Mau is the cunning...eventually the real seer will come out and then we know mau is full of crap.

i think there is way too much risk for the wolves to kill off one of their own to protect mau this early in the game, and not nearly enough reward.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

One thing I remember noting is that when people started moving off of Mauboy, and before Martin was revealed, it seemed people were moving to odd votes. At the time I didn't understand what was happening.

there were also of course a bunch of runs. One on Mauboy, another on NTN.

I was one of those. I moved off of mau because of his reveal. NTN was the next highest, but I had already more or less said I wasn't voting for him. He removed his vote off me and I off of him as a tradeoff to move mau up earlier in the day, and I didn't want to go back on that. So I picked a one vote guy at the time to move my vote (JAG).

My vote was actually still on JAG at the end of the day because I wasn't around during sal's reveal of Martin.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

dola, martin didnt know he did it until this morning...he is in the UK, so it was 1030 at night for him and he didnt check back in until the middle of my night (unless he did it on purpose)

as far as having done it to save mau...there isnt really alot of logic in that idea.

Martin was a vanilla wolf, so lets just say that Mau is the brutal...you sacrifice martin to do what? keep the brutal in the game until the seer reveals so you can use the brutal on the seer.

Ok what if Mau is the cunning...eventually the real seer will come out and then we know mau is full of crap.

i think there is way too much risk for the wolves to kill off one of their own to protect mau this early in the game, and not nearly enough reward.

I actually agree with this.

My thinking is that mau is actually the seer. The Jackal is a wolf.

The wolves expected Lathum to protect mau, so decided to avoid mau for now, figuring mau was unlikely to scan one of them with so many players. So Lathum was then the obvious target. Surprise, surprise, Lathum blocked himself. Wolves curse up a storm in private.

The mau and Jackal wolf theory is a little too complicated to assume right now without more evidence. Occam's Razor and all.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by saldana

dola, martin didnt know he did it until this morning...he is in the UK, so it was 1030 at night for him and he didnt check back in until the middle of my night (unless he did it on purpose)

as far as having done it to save mau...there isnt really alot of logic in that idea.

Martin was a vanilla wolf, so lets just say that Mau is the brutal...you sacrifice martin to do what? keep the brutal in the game until the seer reveals so you can use the brutal on the seer.

Ok what if Mau is the cunning...eventually the real seer will come out and then we know mau is full of crap.

i think there is way too much risk for the wolves to kill off one of their own to protect mau this early in the game, and not nearly enough reward.

I agree that the reveal by MartinD wasn't intentional, but I also don't think that has anything to do with being suspicious of mauboy. I am still doubtful about his claim of being the seer.

[Darth Vilus]

i have to post really quick cuz I'll be out for bit but I should be back well before deadline.

I say (again) we lynch jackal and see what happesn, it's the most informative lynch. i don't see any second candidate worth putting up there and truth be told i wouldn't vote anyone else anyways because I'm pretty confident Jackal is a wolf.

Like I said yesterday, they just had some bad luck is all.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

i have to post really quick cuz I'll be out for bit but I should be back well before deadline.

I say (again) we lynch jackal and see what happesn, it's the most informative lynch. i don't see any second candidate worth putting up there and truth be told i wouldn't vote anyone else anyways because I'm pretty confident Jackal is a wolf.

Like I said yesterday, they just had some bad luck is all.

They?

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by saldana

dola, martin didnt know he did it until this morning...he is in the UK, so it was 1030 at night for him and he didnt check back in until the middle of my night (unless he did it on purpose)

Just confirming the timings here - I'm 5 hours ahead of US Eastern, and usually finish up for the night at around 11 (or 6pm Eastern). I usually have a bit of time on the PC first thing (just after 6 UK time, so in the early hours US time).