WW 103? - 42 Attempts (Game Over - Conspirators Win)

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by J23

I was probably showing here all night, left my browser open to the page.

I did and didn't mean to call you out for metagaming, but I assumed you would be voting.

[The Jackal]

With metagaming, I mean.

[Autumn]

I have to go and see the missus. I"ll check back later to see what happened.

[JAG]

That's a stand up play GE. Respect man.

[EagleFan]

With all of the events of the day everyone is on edge a bit. The successful meeting started the day out on a great note but then the accidental death of a loyal Nazi has caused some concern.

With a bit of a debate about Darth Vilus and Chief Rum the decision is finally made.

Darth Vilus must be the traitor.

The firing squad is convened and before he can struggle to get away the shots ring out.

You search his body and find nothing that leads you to believe that he was anything other than a loyal Nazi.

[The Jackal]

Grr. Doesn't make me feel better about CR.

[The Jackal]

But I'm willing to look everywhere for answers. No NK tonight, so who are we going to look at besides CR tomorrow? I still have feelings about NTN, but it's very flimsy. Let's re-print the voting, if you can take care of that again JAG that'd be great.

[JAG]

Bah. Lousy couple of days except for the meeting working.

[Danny]

That's what I expected. I think there is a good chance CR is a wolf based on the way the votes have gone down.

[The Jackal]

Agreed.

[EagleFan]

Day/Night Three Locations:

Berlin:
Autumn
J23
PurdueBrad
Abe Sargent
KWhit
Chief Rum
JAG

Wolfsschanze:
Lathum
The Jackal

Berchtesgaden:
Schmidty
Danny
ntndeacon
Telle
bulletsponge

[Danny]

At the least we still have all important roles left. Hopefully we have gotten some useful scans in.

[Danny]

Final Day One Vote

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl 1 - JAG (193)

No vote: KWhit

[Danny]

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

[Danny]

Tomorrow is the worst day of the week for me. I am leaving early in the morning and will only have a 20 minute window or so around 7:15pm to check on things before deadline.

[Danny]

Final Day One Vote (fixed)

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl 1 - JAG (193)

No vote: KWhit

[The Jackal]

So, what the hell is Wolfsschanze, and why are Lathum and I there?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Its a defense tactic. If I am always looking suspicious, the wolves will leave me alive because they know I could be up for a lynch. So far, I have managed to talk myself out of every lynch since I started playing again. I consider it a skill that benefits the village.

Plus it is fun and makes the game more interesting if I am involved. I will find myself bored and not paying attention if I am not creating a little controversy. It is probably more of an attention whore then wanting to be in the spotlight.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm pretty sure attention whore = wanting to be in the spotlight, to be honest.

For what it is worth, I certainly have an element of the "aggressive in plain sight" play in my game and think it is a lot more fun that attacking from the weeds, so to speak.

[hoopsguy]

Also, add me to the list of people who appreciate GE "taking one for the team" and departing a fun game prematurely for someone else's mistake. That is a really difficult situation for the moderator (I've created my own messes in games I've run), so when a player is willing to step up for the good of the game that shows a lot of compassion for his plight and respect for his fellow players. Nicely done, sorry that it became necessary.

[JAG]

D1 voting:

(32) Schmidty votes Jackal - Jackal 1
(49) Danny votes GE - Jackal 1 GE 1
(80) Darth votes KWhit - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1
(86) Abe votes Lathum - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1
(87) Lathum votes Schmidty - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1 Schmidty 1
(89) JAG votes Darth - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1 Schmidty 1 Darth 1
(91) Autumn votes Darth - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1 Schmidty 1 Darth 2
(92) ntn votes Chief - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1 Schmidty 1 Darth 2 Chief 1
(96) DT votes Lathum - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 2 Schmidty 1 Darth 2 Chief 1
(102) Lathum unvotes Schmidty, votes DT - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 1 DT 1
(105) PB votes KWhit - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 1 DT 1
(106) J23 votes DT - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 1 DT 2
(108)LSG votes Autumn - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 1 DT 2 Autumn 1
(110) bulletspong votes Chief - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 2 Autumn 1
(113) hoopsguy votes DT - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 3 Autumn 1
(122) Danny unvotes GE - Jackal 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 3 Autumn 1
(125) Abe unvotes Lathum, votes DT - Jackal 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 4 Autumn 1
(129) Chief votes Darth - Jackal 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 3 Chief 2 DT 4 Autumn 1
(153) Schmidty unvotes Jackal, votes DT - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 3 Chief 2 DT 5 Autumn 1
(163) Jackal votes DT - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 3 Chief 2 DT 6 Autumn 1
(179) Danny votes LSG - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 3 Chief 2 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 1
(188) Chief unvotes Darth, votes LSG - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 2
(193) JAG unvotes Darth, votes LSG - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 1 Chief 2 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 3
(213) GE votes Chief - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 1 Chief 3 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 3
(219) Telle votes Darth - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 3 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 3
(221) LSG unvotes Autumn, votes Chief - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 4 DT 6 LSG 3
(223) Danny unvotes LSG, votes Chief - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 5 DT 6 LSG 2
(230) Chief unvotes LSG, votes DT - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 5 DT 7 LSG 1





D2 voting:

(382) Abe votes KWhit - KWhit 1
(390) Abe unvotes KWhit
(403) PB votes Darth - Darth 1
(406) Jackal votes NTN - Darth 1 NTN 1
(408) Autumn votes Darth - Darth 2 NTN 1
(421) Darth votes Chief - Darth 2 NTN 1 Chief 1
(425) bulletsponge votes Chief - Darth 2 NTN 1 Chief 2
(432) Lathum votes NTN - Darth 2 NTN 2 Chief 2
(436) KWhit votes Darth - Darth 3 NTN 2 Chief 2
(438) Telle votes Chief - Darth 3 NTN 2 Chief 3
(440) NTN votes Darth - Darth 4 NTN 2 Chief 3
(447) Danny votes Chief - Darth 4 NTN 2 Chief 4
(452) JAG votes Darth - Darth 5 NTN 2 Chief 4
(467) Chief votes Darth - Darth 6 NTN 2 Chief 4
(476) Abe votes Darth - Darth 7 NTN 2 Chief 4
(479) Jackal votes Chief - Darth 7 NTN 1 Chief 5
(481) Schmidty votes Chief - Darth 7 NTN 1 Chief 6
(539) J23 votes Darth - Darth 8 NTN 1 Chief 6

[The Jackal]

Yes, cheers, GE. Much goodwill comin' your way.

[Lathum]

Classy move GE.

[Lathum]

I am a little confused about the whole city thing. Why are we there, who puts us there, etc...

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am a little confused about the whole city thing. Why are we there, who puts us there, etc...

I think only a few key players know the reasoning behind that at this point. But let's party it up, eh? Maybe since we're in this wolf town we're being scanned or something? Bring it on.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am a little confused about the whole city thing. Why are we there, who puts us there, etc...

.

Locations - Locations will be used for the purpose of quartering the troops. Hitler will determine who will be placed in what location (by user name and not role). A bomb attack may be against one of the locations. During the fist day Hitler will select the locations for everyone for day two/night two. Each day he will select the locations for the following day. He may not stay in the same location on consecutive nights and must visit each location at least one time every 5 days. There are no restrictions on the locations for any other player. The locations are: Berlin, Berchtesgaden and Wolfsschanze.

[The Jackal]

Good call, JAG.

[The Jackal]

But it's still interesting that there's only two of us there. Very cool strategic options for Hitler in this game, it seems.

[JAG]

So the bomb that this guy has could go off tonight potentially. No indication what it means for the people at the location where it goes off, but presumably it's not going to be pretty.

Johann Georg Elser - He has a one time ability to craft an explosive device which may (or may not) cause havoc with the Nazi party. When he decides to plant the bomb it will not go off for two nights (if he sets it on day/night one it will not go off until day/night three). There is no stopping his attack once it has begun and will still detonate if he is killed prior to the event. The device is set when he gives the order. He acts alone and does not have any affiliation with the Nazi party and thus not with the other conspirators. He wins with the conspiracy though he does not have PM rights.

[Lathum]

I read that part, I dunno, maybe it just seems anti climatic to this point

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Oh, for the record. The PB comment was not in relation to this situation, probably a poorly timed joke about my "standing day one vote".

I believe that all jokes about PB are poorly timed. But that just may be me.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

We have a situation within the game and to be honest I don't know how to handle it at the moment.

A conspirator replied to another in a PM and accidentally included another player in the PM instead of me.

I want this to be known now as I really am at a loss at the moment for how to handle this one.

Suggestions?

If we only consistantly had that Reply All button still...

Well shit

[The Jackal]

Way to be behind the ball, Abe

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

A single shot rings out. Where did that come from? What happened? Sniper?

Confusion is all around as everyone tries to find out what happened.

You come across GoldenEagle. He lies motionless on the ground. His gun lies near his body. It appears that he was cleaning the gun and didn't see the chambered round.

GoldenEagle was a Loyal Nazi.

I honestly don;t know what I would have done in this situation, but ugh. That is ... ugh. I feel for ya GE.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Way to be behind the ball, Abe

My lady just left, let me get caught up and shoosh

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

My lady just left, let me get caught up and shoosh

Just messing with you.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

My lady just left, let me get caught up and shoosh

love ya then leave ya, huh...

[Abe Sargent]

Wow.

So, we have lost 5 villagers in 2 days. In that time....nothing.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Lathum

love ya then leave ya, huh...

Not tonight baby, I'm all tired.

[Autumn]

Well, crap, on the lynch vote. I'll take my share of fault for that, I voted Darth both days and stayed on him when I could have moved. Hopefully in the morning I can look over the votes and find something new.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Not tonight baby, I'm all tired.

umm, I meant your woman, not me.

[Darth Vilus]

I knew this was gonna happen, nice work peeps nice work. At least I didn't have a role

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

That's what I expected. I think there is a good chance CR is a wolf based on the way the votes have gone down.

I would like to see your breakdown of this then. If you're seeing a pattern that suggests I am a wolf, I am all ears, since I am not a wolf.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, I am disappointed DV was not a conspirator. That means we pretty much haven't had darn near any wolf in danger. You guys obviously don't know that, but I do, and that's a pile of crud.

Maybe it's time for me to do some analysis at least. You guys will ignore it until you find out I am telling the truth, but at least after I am dead, you can go back to it and see if anything stands out.

Thanks to Danny and JAG with the vote counts and orders--that might help an analysis get done faster.

[The Jackal]

By all means, CR, do some analysis. We clearly haven't been spot on thus far, and if you aren't a wolf, who is?

[Darth Vilus]

The spirit of the Sith will lay in the dark, alone and friendless. It will grow ever more powerful, waiting, waiting, waiting to exact it's revenge on the beings responsible for its body's demise. It will return.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

D1 voting:

(32) Schmidty votes Jackal - Jackal 1
(49) Danny votes GE - Jackal 1 GE 1
(80) Darth votes KWhit - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1
(86) Abe votes Lathum - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1
(87) Lathum votes Schmidty - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1 Schmidty 1
(89) JAG votes Darth - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1 Schmidty 1 Darth 1
(91) Autumn votes Darth - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1 Schmidty 1 Darth 2
(92) ntn votes Chief - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 1 Schmidty 1 Darth 2 Chief 1
(96) DT votes Lathum - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 2 Schmidty 1 Darth 2 Chief 1
(102) Lathum unvotes Schmidty, votes DT - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 1 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 1 DT 1
(105) PB votes KWhit - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 1 DT 1
(106) J23 votes DT - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 1 DT 2
(108)LSG votes Autumn - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 1 DT 2 Autumn 1
(110) bulletspong votes Chief - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 2 Autumn 1
(113) hoopsguy votes DT - Jackal 1 GE 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 3 Autumn 1
(122) Danny unvotes GE - Jackal 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 2 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 3 Autumn 1
(125) Abe unvotes Lathum, votes DT - Jackal 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 4 Autumn 1
(129) Chief votes Darth - Jackal 1 KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 3 Chief 2 DT 4 Autumn 1
(153) Schmidty unvotes Jackal, votes DT - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 3 Chief 2 DT 5 Autumn 1
(163) Jackal votes DT - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 3 Chief 2 DT 6 Autumn 1
(179) Danny votes LSG - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 3 Chief 2 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 1
(188) Chief unvotes Darth, votes LSG - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 2 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 2
(193) JAG unvotes Darth, votes LSG - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 1 Chief 2 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 3
(213) GE votes Chief - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 1 Chief 3 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 3
(219) Telle votes Darth - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 3 DT 6 Autumn 1 LSG 3
(221) LSG unvotes Autumn, votes Chief - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 4 DT 6 LSG 3
(223) Danny unvotes LSG, votes Chief - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 5 DT 6 LSG 2
(230) Chief unvotes LSG, votes DT - KWhit 2 Lathum 1 Darth 2 Chief 5 DT 7 LSG 1

Thoughts as I go down the list...

Keep in mind, we haven't had any wolves in the vote hunt, and we have no known wolves whatsoever, so it's limited what you can make calls on right now. I am doing this on the assumption I am a loyal Nazi. I don't have to assume, of course, but you all do, at least if you eventually put any faith into this...

All times following are PDT, because, well, that's where I am.

*** (CRITERIA #1)

Players who voted once on Day One and never changed their vote (vote target in parentheses):

Autumn (vtd Darth)
ntn (vtd Chief)
PB (vtd KWhit)
J23 (vtd DT)
bulletsponge (vtd Chief)
Jackal (vtd DT)
Telle (voted Darth)

Known villagers who also voted once: Darth, DT, hoops, GE

My theory here is that we had all villagers for the most part as focused candidates. Why would the wolves bounce around? Before you point out the four non-villagers who did this, note also that Darth was out most of the day after his vote, hoops had well advertised issues getting into the forum, and DT was a runaway candidate most of the day who nobly refused to switch onto me at the end because of fear of a tie (it was the only chance he had all day of putting his vote on someone besides Lathum, his first choice).

So we have this group: Autumn, ntn, PB, J23, bulletsponge, Jackal and Telle.

Of that group, Autumn was the first "second" vote. I don't think a wolf would be the first to put a "2nd" on someone. It's a stupid tradition to suspect this person, but there's no reason to push it. First (spread the vote) votes from the above? ntn. Meaningless vote from above? Telle (a late vote not on either top candidate). Only vote not on known villager? PB

I would rank their suspiciousness off of this vote in this order: ntn, Telle, J23/bulletsponge/Jackal, PB, Autumn.

*** CRITERIA #2

First post after 6 p.m. (1 hour left) on Day One was Autumn's at #124. Players with posts between 6-7 (meaning they were there) on Day 1 with votes on non-candidates who did not change their votes, or made votes for non-candidates in this period.

Here is the vote count at 6 p.m. (taking EF's vote count at #114 and removing Danny's vote for GE; he unvoted at 5:30):

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As of Post 114:

Jackal 1 - Schmidty (32)
KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 2 - Abe Sargent (86), DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - JAG (89), Autumn (91)
Chief Rum 2 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110)
DaddyTorgo 3 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113)
Autumn 1 - LoneStarGirl (108)

Yet to vote: The Jackal, GoldenEagle, Chief Rum, KWhit, Telle

So going into 6 p.m., uncleared players with votes on eventual non-candidates: Schmidty, PB, Abe

Of the non-votes at that point, two are known Nazis (me and GE), and KWhit did not vote. Telle's vote on a non-candidate was already noted in Criteria #1 (not going to ding her twice). The Jackal voted DT in the last hour (noted candidate).

Schmidty and Abe switched to DT, and PB never posted, suggesting he was not there. So this might be a dead end.

However, by post #163, DT had 6 votes, with Darth the closest at 3. That means the closest potential wolf candidate was KWhit at 2 votes (I also had 2 votes, remember I am going off the assumption I am a loyal Nazi). That means we have a new round where wolves could switch and still be safe to "hide" their votes. Only two uncleared vote changes: JAG and Telle. JAG finished a little run on LSG started by Danny and myself. Telle's vote is well noted.

Not much really to go on here except highlighting that Telle's vote looks like crap.

*** CRITERIA #3

Hiding in a runaway vote: there was only one brief runaway on Day One, and that was the DT run up to post #163. Abe moved DT from 3 votes (one vote up on other candidates) to 4 votes. Although he put a villager at further risk, I don't think a wolf makes that move, not with less than an hour to go to deadline. So this actually looks better for Abe. Not so good for Jackal and Schmidty, the last two votes (5th and 6th votes) on DT up to #163. Those are clearly in a runaway at that point.

So Abe gets a plus, Schmidty and The Jackal get minuses.

*** DAY ONE CONCLUSIONS

At this point, I would consider the following players most wolfish:

Suspicious: Telle (late throwaway on non-candidate), The Jackal (only vote was on DT after DT looked toast/late runaway), ntn (early vote no change, spread the vote vote, added 7th candidate)

Sorta middle ground: bulletsponge never changed his early vote

Still not enough to tell: KWhit (no vote), PB (voted non-candidate and no vote change but wasn't around)

I am choosing to not include Schmidty for one reason: he voted first in the whole game. Kinda like the not being the first "2nd" for Autumn, I find it rare that a wolf votes first in a game unless he can't check back in later, and Schmidty does check back in later.

Looking okay: Autumn (1st "2nd" vote), Abe (put DT out as frontrunner; unlikely wolf move), J23 (voted for LSG during late run on her)

[Chief Rum]

Correction on suspicion list. I got J23 and JAG confused. Move J23 to same level as bulletsponge. He voted once early on DT and never changed his vote.

JAG gets the benefit of switching to LSG. He capped the run on LSG that started with Danny and myself, and he was a late switch on a potentially strong candidate, an unusual risk for a wolf to make.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

I could go into a lot of detail on Day Two (the vote above), like I did Day One, but I am short on time and one thing in particular stood out to me as interesting (get to it in a sec).

The Day Two vote, following my hypotheses that I am good, is essentially worthless. The debate never really left Darth versus myself, and I am supposing we're both villagers. Since we were always the only serious candidates, there's not much to be gained from parsing the vote specifics except for my "interesting note".

Said "interesting note":

And that's that that last hour must have been maddening for the wolves. They had the chance to kill two villagers at once if they could just engineer a tie. But for the last hour and a half, it was 7-6 Darth over me. The only votes not in the mix were Lathum (on ntn and out for the evening per post #432), GE (who was about to get whacked for someone else's boneheaded error) and J23, who didn't show up until the very end.

J23 actually chose not to do the tie, and that was with Danny, a known good guy, suggesting the possibility (albeit right at the deadline). This suggests J23 is good.

Also, check out Lathum's last post before deadline (his vote post, #432). In it, he actually points out what I just pointed above about ntn. He was way ahead of the game on that one. And if he were a wolf, I think he would have put it on one of the candidates (Darth or myself) so his wolf buddies could maybe do something with it. So I am thinking Lathum looks pretty good right now, too.

Back to the wolves and being pissed at not being able to engineer a tie. Having excused all those not on Darth or myself, that means all conspirators were already on those two. And it being 7-6, any switch from one to the other would just switch the candidate lynched, not get them both lynched, and a move completely off of a candidate to a non-candidate would have been blatantly obvious.

At this point, also taking in Day One...

Cleared players:

Danny
myself

Looking okay to good:

Lathum
J23
Schmidty
Autumn
Abe
JAG

Middle ground:

KWhit
PB
bulletsponge

Looking bad:

Telle
The Jackal
ntn

Hitler's Meeting

This brings me to the meeting. There were 7 known attendees (with Hitler a possible secret 8th or one of the seven). They are:

Danny
Telle
GE
JAG
J23
KWhit
PB

Two here are cleared (Danny and GE). Two are on the looking okay list (JAG and J23).

That leaves two mediocre (KWhit and PB) and one bad (Telle).

Hitler states there is a traitor among us in the writeup. Was he talking about the general existence of the conspiracy in this game? Or was he saying "there is one conspirator in this meeting"? I suspect the latter. Wouldn't he have said traitors if he was speaking of the conspiracy in general?

Also, we know the meeting was a success. I think if three (as in, most of the conspiracy) were in attendance, this meeting would have been a failure. Two conspirators is certainly still a possible read for a "success", but that has a "tie" written all over it to me. 2 out of 7 is probably about roughly what we're looking at for wolf to total players ratio.

So 1 out of 7 is the only clear success that is not zero. Not only would Hitler have been incredibly lucky to not have a conspirator in the meeting, but he mentions the traitor among us. That tells me there has to be a conspirator in the meeting. And it's unlikely there are two.

So, I think it's fairly likely that Telle, KWhit or PB is a conspirator, and a possibility that if we find the one, the other two will actually look slightly better for it. For obvious reasons, I think Telle stands out in that group, but I suspect all of them at some level (probably Telle then KWhit then PB, in that order).

So there you go. Make of it what you will.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, we know Rommel hasn't been converted. I am treating him as a "loyal Nazi" to this point, but in my mind, it's quite possible he is among the "looking good" types. In fact, it's in his interest. If he is never converted, he wins with the village, so he would want to look good to stay alive like a good villager. If he is converted, he would want to look as good as possible, so he can essentially be a wolf in sheep's clothing after being converted.

So anyone who isn't cleared as someone else (like Danny) could indeed still be Rommel, no matter how good he looks in the above analysis.

But, hey, Rommel's still on our side, so I say we leave that out until it matters.

[Chief Rum]

Is it metagaming that something has occurred to me that might make someone a more likely wolf if I came to that conclusion via the events surrounding GE's removal from the game?

I suspect it is, so I will not speak of this and as long as I am in the game, I will try to keep any conclusions I have drawn from that from influencing my choices.